Reid Fischer's World of Rants

Last Week: 9-7

Clearly we need to pick up the pace here to achieve our goal of 70 percent correct picks for the season.  My biggest misfires were the Chargers (who looked lost and confused at Arrowhead), the Cowboys (why didn’t they just take a knee on the last play of the half?), and the Colts (the run defense looks scary bad without Bob Sanders).  My biggest wins?  The Ravens (who looked just as dominant defensively as they ever have), the Patriots (Wes Welker is back with a vengeance), and the Saints (who did a phenomenal job shutting down the Vikings high powered offense).  I’m sure other surprises lie in store for us in week two.

– Packers over Bills: This should be a popular eliminator selection this week.  While I am gambling and saving Green Bay for later in the season, this should be a gimmie win for the Packers.  They looked every bit like a Super Bowl contender last week against the Eagles, and even with the season ending injury to Ryan Grant, Brandon Jackson should more than be able to pick up the slack.  Aaron Rodgers and his receivers should have a field day carving up the Bills secondary, and I sense major problems for Trent Edwards and the Bills offense against what might be the best defense in the NFC.  Buffalo just isn’t very good, and a trip to Lambeau is the last thing they need right now.

– Vikings over Dolphins: Minnesota has had plenty of time to regroup after their season opening loss to the defending champs.  It should give Brett Favre more time to get healthy and reacquainted with NFL game speed, and also give him more time to get a rhythm with Bernard Berrian and his other receivers in the absence of Sidney Rice.  Adrian Peterson should be able to run wild on the Metrodome carpet, and the Vikings defense should be in line for a few turnovers as they usually are at home.  Miami won in Buffalo last week, but they didn’t exactly look impressive in doing so.  Brandon Marshall will get his yards, but in the end lack of a running game will doom the Dolphins.

– Patriots over Jets: I know the Jets are the trendy pick here, but the more I think about it the more I think they will find themselves in a 0-2 hole.  Darrelle Revis is obviously excellent, and I think he will contain Randy Moss, but I like Wes Welker in the slot against Antonio Cromartie or whoever the Jets have matching up there.  I also think Mark Sanchez struggled mightily against the Ravens, and I think he will do the same against New England.  The Patriots defense did what they had to do against a high powered offense last week, and I think the Jets have fewer weapons than the Bengals do.  The Jets offense could be explosive when Santonio Holmes returns from suspension in week five but until then they will have to make do with what they have.  The running game is only so so, and that won’t help them play keep away from Tom Brady.  I like New England on the road.

– Ravens over Bengals: Cincinnati doesn’t seem like they should be an 0-2 team, but I just don’t like this matchup for them right now.  Baltimore’s brick wall defense is just as stingy as ever, and I think the Ravens’ secondary is up for the challenge of T.O. and Ochocinco.  Baltimore is also highly motivated knowing the Bengals swept them last season.  I think Joe Flacco has enough weapons at his disposal now that even if Cincinnati does score some points, the Ravens will be able to match them.  This will be a very physical game that should go down to the fourth quarter, but I think Baltimore has another road win in them.

– Chiefs over Browns: I’m still not sure if Kansas City’s win last week had more to do with their young talent, or if it was more a case of San Diego losing the game.  I do think the Chiefs are crazy if they make Jamaal Charles anything other than the featured back.  He has got to get more than 11 carries, and for the life of me I have no clue why Coach Todd Haley is so obsessed with Thomas Jones when Charles is light years ahead of him.  Matt Cassel did not play well last week and I would say the Chiefs won in spite of him more than because of him last week, but I think the Browns secondary is bad enough that he might be able to find Dwayne Bowe for some big plays.  While I think the Browns will be able to run the ball and control the game, their chances are zero if Jake Delhomme doesn’t play.  In any case, a hunch says the Chiefs get the road win.

– Titans over Steelers: Pittsburgh’s defense looked very impressive last week in their win over the Falcons, keeping it low scoring until Rashard Mendenhall broke through with his big run in overtime.  They will need a similar effort this week on the road, because you know the Titans’ defense is going to tee off on poor Dennis Dixon.  I don’t think the Steelers will have near the success running the ball this week, and I really don’t like Dixon’s ability to make big plays in the passing game.  I think Chris Johnson is a given to hit 100 yards rushing every week, plus Vince Young continues to show an ability to be a leader for the Tennessee offense.  This could be close, but I think Tennessee wins it.

– Texans over Redskins: What we have here is two teams that were expected to be 0-1 but are both 1-0 heading into this one.  I would be really surprised if Arian Foster duplicated his monster performance from last week, but I think the Texans will be able to move the ball effectively.  Andre Johnson was fairly quiet last week given Foster’s eye popping effort, but I think he is in line for a big game on Sunday.  The biggest key for Houston is to avoid a letdown following arguably their biggest win in franchise history.  Washington showed an ability to stop the run last week, but offensively they were very inconsistent.  They are going to have to score more than 13 points to win this game, but unless Santana Moss can make some big plays in the passing game I don’t see that happening.

– Chargers over Jaguars: San Diego perhaps was the biggest disappointment of week one, and they are really missing holdouts Vincent Jackson and Ryan McNeil.  What’s embarrassing for the Chargers is this game will be blacked out in San Diego due to a non-sellout.  Still, I think the home confines should be enough for Philip Rivers to get back to looking like his old self, but the Chargers will need Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles to show a lot more in the running game than they did Monday night.  Jacksonville got an impressive three TD performance from David Garrard last week, but long term they will need Maurice Jones-Drew to be the focal point of the offense.  I think Jones-Drew will get his yards, but the Chargers are desperate knowing they can’t afford to start 0-2.  While this could be interesting, I think San Diego finds a way at home.

– Broncos over Seahawks: Seattle blew out the 49ers last week, but it still somewhat puzzling how they did it.  They didn’t run the ball particularly well, and while Matt Hasselbeck threw two touchdown passes it wasn’t as if he lit up the sky with big plays.  Their defense was outstanding, but it will be interesting to see if they can keep that up on the road.  I thought the Broncos played reasonably well despite the loss last week, and I like their ability offensively at home in this one. They should be able to run more effectively and set up the play action for Kyle Orton.  As long as Denver cleans up the turnovers and penalties they will be fine.  Denver has not lost a home opener since 1999, and I don’t see that changing on Sunday.

– Raiders over Rams: Another game that will be blacked out in the home market, but that’s fairly typical these days in Oakland.  The Raiders really looked awful last week in Tennessee, but it’s not as if the Rams looked much better in their loss to Arizona.  Sam Bradford threw an astounding 55 passes last week, so the Rams at some point are going to have to get Steven Jackson the ball more.  The Raiders still on paper should be improved over last season, so if that is the case they will find a way to win this one at home.  This pick really has more to do with St. Louis being just as bad than anything else, so really I’m picking the home team by default.  Nothing would surprise me though when it comes to the Raiders.

– Cowboys over Bears: Dallas clearly laid an egg in Washington between their stupidity on the last play of the first half and their holding penalty that wiped out what would have been the game winning touchdown.  With nowhere to go but up, they should be delighted to see Jay Cutler in their home opener.  The Bears were very fortunate not to lose at home to Detroit thanks to one of the worst calls in NFL history (it was technically correct by the rule, but in this case common sense should have won the day).  Cutler’s propensity for interceptions plus the pressure he’s sure to get from DeMarcus Ware is a very dangerous combo for the Chicago offense.  I also think Tony Romo gets it together and the Cowboys will be able to run the football.  This one may not be close.

– Eagles over Lions: Michael Vick will get the start at QB for the Eagles, which as we saw last week may be an improvement over Kevin Kolb.  Philadelphia has enough weapons to score points, and they should be able to get it done considering the Lions will be without Matthew Stafford and will resort to starting Shaun Hill.  I do think Detroit has a lot of good young talent, and they will win some games before the season is over, but I don’t see this being one of them.  The Eagles will be highly motivated coming off a home loss and this a club that won’t stand for being 0-2.  In fact I am taking this for my eliminator selection this week, which means I am probably dooming the Eagles.

– Falcons over Cardinals: While I think this should be a relatively easy win for the Falcons, I’m not sure I agree with most who say this is a guaranteed blowout.  I do think the Falcons will pile up points with Roddy White having a monster game, but I also think the Cardinals will put up their share of points.  There is too much talent in the receiving core with Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston for Derek Anderson to not find them eventually.  Beanie Wells is also a talented back, so I think Arizona has the potential to score points in this one as well.  I do like the Falcons to win the game, but this could be one of the more entertaining contests of the week.

– Panthers over Buccaneers: This has the potential to be one of the more boring games of the week.  I don’t think either team is very good, although I think the Panthers should have a strong running game with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.  If Steve Smith shows up and plays to his capability, Carolina should be able to score more than enough points to win this one at home.  Tampa Bay escaped last week against a terrible Browns team, but they can’t expect to do that on the road.

– Colts over Giants: The Sunday nighter is a big one because of the Manning brothers playing against each other, but to me the more interesting storyline is the Colts’ run defense.  I am highly tempted to move Ahmad Bradshaw to the top of my list of fantasy tailback options simply on the basis that he is facing Indy this week.  While I don’t think the Colts will allow him 250 yards, I think the Giants will run effectively enough to make this game interesting.  I think in the end, it’s very difficult to pick against Peyton Manning at home, especially when the Colts are motivated after a loss.  I think Peyton finds Dallas Clark early and often, and the Colts win a high scoring game.

– 49ers over Saints: Upset alert in the Monday night game.  The Saints are the defending champs and looking very impressive defensively in their season opening win over the Vikings, but as defending champs they are going to get everyone’s best effort this season.  San Francisco was humiliated last week, to the point where Mike Singletary called a team meeting on a tarmac once the plane landed in San Francisco.  I think the Monday night atmosphere combined with the defending champs coming to town is a recipe that will give the 49ers a lot of juice for this contest.  San Francisco’s defense is better than people realize, and I think Frank Gore runs enough to give the Niners the upset victory.