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AFC South Preview

Posted by mizzou1028 on September 2, 2009

This division offers my biggest shocker (there is always at least one).  Teams listed in order of finish.

1. Houston Texans – The Texans have not exactly experienced success since their inception in 2002.  Frankly they have not even been close to being a playoff team.  However,  I think things are about to really turn around for this team.  Last season they finished .500 for the first time, winning five of their final six games in the process, including wins over Tennessee (the AFC South champ and top playoff seed), Green Bay (at Lambeau) and Chicago in the finale, knocking the Bears out of the playoffs.  Granted, the Texans started out 0-4 and had some stumbles along the way, but this appears to be a team ready to break out.

Houston’s offense has very quietly become one of the scariest units in the league.  I would say the offense was already playoff quality at the end of the season, and is only bound to be better this year.  Quarterback Matt Schaub is very underrated as a game manager, and he has shown continual improvement.  Schaub is no slouch either when it comes to arm strength, and it doesn’t hurt that he has some terrific receivers to help him stretch the field.  Schaub’s biggest issue has been an ability to stay healthy, but when he’s been in there he has posted very good numbers.  That concern was not eased for Texans fans this week when Schaub hurt his ankle against the Vikings.  Schaub says there is nothing to worry about for the opener, but his health is key for success in Houston.  If he is healthy, I am predicting a Pro Bowl year for Schaub, because I think he is very good and so is the talent around him.  Wide receiver Andre Johnson is a no doubt top 3 wide receiver in the league.  Johnson led the league with 115 catches last year and a lot of them were of the spectacular variety.  Paired with the quietly successful Kevin Walter on the other side, the Texans have a pair of 6-3 targets for Schaub to throw to.  Factor in third receiver Andre Davis, as well as David Anderson, and Houston has depth at the position.  Tight end Owen Daniels is also coming off a Pro Bowl appearance, and he has great ability as a receiver as well as a blocker in the running game.  Speaking of which, the Texans really found a gem at running back last year in Steve Slaton.  All Slaton did in his rookie season was post over 1,600 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns.  He can run, catch, block, you name it.  Ryan Moats and Chris Brown will be called upon to keep Slaton fresh during the season.  Houston’s offensive line is young, but the players seem to be adapting well to the zone blocking scheme installed by Alex Gibbs, a system that Denver has used like clockwork for the past 15 years.  The key is keeping Schaub healthy, but if he is the Texans offense will put up monster numbers all year.

The defense has continued to get better in recent seasons, and the Texans hope that the final pieces are now in place.  Houston bolstered the defensive line with the additions of end Antonio Smith from Arizona, and tackle Shaun Cody from the Lions.  They will join an already capable group of tackles in Travis Johnson and Amobi Okoye.  The idea is to rotate linemen and keep them fresh, and Houston now has the depth to be able to do that.  Oh, and the Texans also have Mario Williams lining up at the other defensive end.  Coach Gary Kubiak and his staff were roundly criticized in 2006 when they passed on Reggie Bush with the first pick in the draft to take Williams.  Williams has proven the critics wrong by collecting 26 sacks over the past two seasons.  With the new additions along the line, it is scary to think that Williams might actually have more sack chances coming his way.  The linebackers are also very good, led by DeMeco Ryans, who also came in 2006.  Ryans is the leader of the defense.  He plays hurt, and isn’t afraid to take on any blocker or go to any lengths to make a tackle.  The Texans hope the additions of Cato June from the Colts as well as first round pick Brian Cushing of USC will round out the linebacking core.  The Texans secondary was inconsistent last year, but they hope an improved pass rush will lead to better results back there.  Dunta Robinson is the team’s best cornerback, with the rest of the group being young and inexperienced.

Kicker Kris Brown has been a Texan since the team’s inception in 2002, and he is still accurate as ever.  Punter Matt Turk had a subpar year last year, and he’ll need to get more oomph on his punts to keep the job.  Andre Davis was not near as good on returns last year as he was two years ago, but he’ll get another crack, along with Jacoby Jones.

The Texans appeared to finally get close to turning the corner last season, rallying at the end to finish .500.  They do play in a difficult divison, but they also get a friendly schedule in which they don’t have to see AFC powers Pittsburgh or San Diego.  I think this is a year the Texans turn the corner and make their first ever playoff appearance.

5932. Indianapolis Colts – The Colts have a surprising amount of changes this year for a team that had been the definition of stability for the past decade.  Head coach Tony Dungy is retired, replaced by Jim Caldwell.  There is also a new defensive coordinator, Larry Coyer, who has been with numerous teams with little success.  Also gone is franchise staple Marvin Harrison, who is not officially retired but has yet to latch on with a team.  The Colts still have much of the same from past years and the usual very high expectations.  Last year they went 12-4, winning nine straight to close out the regular season, only to finish second in the division.  Worse, they lost in the first round of the playoffs to 8-8 San Diego.  That left a bitter taste in the mouth of the Colts, and they are hungry.

The offense is still excellent.  Peyton Manning’s credentials obviously speak for themselves, as long as he is under center, the Colts will automatically have a good offense.  Manning’s numbers did dip slightly last year after he had surgery in the offseason prior, but he started to find his groove again toward the end of the year, and still managed to win yet another MVP award, the third of his career, tying Brett Favre for most all-time.  I would expect Manning’s numbers to be better than last, and that could be bad news for opponents.  Despite the loss of Harrison, the Colts still have an outstanding receiving core highlighted by Reggie Wayne, who actually outperformed Harrison the past couple seasons, and Anthony Gonzalez, who is entering his third year and has shown that he is more than ready to step in and be a reliable target for Manning.  Tight end Dallas Clark is also one of the top receiving tight ends in the league, so Manning will not have any shortage of targets.  The running game took a big dip last year, finishing a surprising second to last in the league.  Joseph Addai did not look anywhere near the back who starred as a rookie in 2006.  Addai only hit 100 yards once last year, hence the first round selection of Donald Brown out of Connecticut.  This has very much the look of an open competition, and the Colts hope that one of the two will emerge and give the team a reliable ground threat again.  The offensive line isn’t expected to be much of an issue, although its strength has always been pass protecting as opposed to run blocking.  Center Jeff Saturday is still very solid, but there could be a question mark at left tackle, where Tony Ugoh is still a work in progress.

Defense has never been a staple in Indianapolis, but it hasn’t been much of an issue because the offense has been so explosive.  The Colts do have an outstanding tandem of pass rushing ends in Dwight Freeney (10.5 sacks last year) and Robert Mathis (11.5 sacks).  The Colts also addressed the line in the draft with their second round pick, defensive tackle Fili Moala of USC.  The Colts hope that he and Ed Johnson will be able to tie up blockers, allowing for more sack opportunities for Freeney and Mathis.  The linebacking core is very average, with Gary Brackett being the best of the group.  The secondary features one of the best hard hitting safeties in Bob Sanders, who is outstanding in stuffing the run.  The corners are inexperienced, but the Colts have high hopes for Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson.

Kicker Adam Vinatieri might be a future Hall of Famer, so the Colts are set there.  The punter will be rookie Pat McAfee, who had a good career as a punter and kicker at West Virginia.  The Colts still don’t really have anyone set to return kicks and punts, with Chad Simpson and Pierre Garcon as possibilities.  Needless to say the return game is a big unknown for the Colts.

I still think Indianapolis is a playoff team mainly because of Manning, but they seem to be heading down, not up.  Still, this is a dangerous team always, and they will be a factor.

3. Tennessee Titans – Last year the Titans were a big surprise, racing out to a 10-0 start, finishing 13-3 and landing the top seed in the AFC.  However, they suffered a home defeat to Baltimore in their first playoff game that left a bitter taste in their mouth.  The organization also had a very rough offseason with the shooting death of legendary quarterback Steve McNair, who took the team to its only Super Bowl in 1999.  Tennessee also lost its most important defensive player, Albert Haynesworth, to free agency.  Jeff Fisher’s teams always push through and find a way to play well, but they will a have a rough road to repeat as division champ.

Kerry Collins ended up with the starting quarterback job by default last year after Vince Young has his mental breakdown in the season opener.  Collins surprised everyone with a Pro Bowl appearance, and is returning for his 15th season in the NFL.  He still has a good arm and doesn’t make bad decisions, and that makes him a good fit for Jeff Fisher’s offense.  Young is back with the team, and has made bold statements about wanting to get his old job back.  His preseason performance so far has not justified those bold claims, but it could prove to be interesting to see how it affects the Titans if Young continues to make his presence known off the field.  It won’t affect Collins, who is as steady as professional as anyone, but the whole situation could have an effect on the team going forward.  The Titans did make an effort to improve their receiving core with the addition of Nate Washington, who was the third receiver in Pittsburgh.  Washington will start alongside Justin Gage, while first round pick Kenny Britt of Rutgers will also be expected to make an impact.  Still, Tennessee’s receivers as a group don’t seem to really scare anyone.  Tight end Alge Crumpler didn’t make the impact in the passing game that was expected when he signed as a free agent last year, but he and Bo Scaife are a good tandem in the running game and both are capable red zone targets.  The strength of the Titans offense lies in the running game, where Chris Johnson had a monster rookie season last year.  His speed and shiftiness makes him very difficult to tackle, and his speed makes him the perfect compliment to LenDale White, who can gain the tough yards between the tackles and is a perfect goal line back.  The offensive line is among the best in the NFL, anchored by veteran center Kevin Mawae.

Defensively, the Titans will be greatly impacted by the loss of Albert Haynesworth to Washington.  Haynesworth’s presence to the Titans defense has been so vital over the years that their wins and losses were often dictated by his health.  When Haynesworth was 100 percent, his presence made it virtually impossible for teams to run on the Titans.  When he was out of the lineup or hobbled, it completely changed the game because teams were then able to run on the Titans.  A lot of pressure will be on Jovan Haye and second round pick Sen’Derrick Marks of Auburn.  The Titans do have end Jevon Kearse, who has an excellent season last year at age 32.  The other end, Kyle Vanden Bosch, must show he is recovered from a groin injury.  The linebackers are an above average group, but age is a concern, as there is no depth behind Keith Bullock and David Thornton, both of whom are over age 30.  The secondary is solid with corners Cortland Finnigan and Chris Hope.

The kicking game is set with kicker Rob Bironas, the fifth most accurate kicker in NFL history, as well as veteran punter Craig Hentrich.  The return game is unknown right now, but the top candidate to handle those duties is Mark Jones, a free agent acquistion from Carolina.

Tennessee is bound to take a step backward after hitting 13 wins a year ago.  The loss of Haynesworth could be crippling, and the offense is decent but it remains to be seen whether Collins can duplicate his success of last year.  In the end this division will be too tough for the Titans.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars – The big story out of Jacksonville is that the Jaguars might not have a single home game televised in their home market due to poor ticket sales and an expectation that not a single home game will sell out.  The Jaguars have to rank as the single biggest disappointment in the NFL last season, for they fell from a 12-4 record in 2007, a season that included a road playoff win at Pittsburgh and an admirable performance the next week in New England, to a disastrous 5-11 record in 2008, highlighted (or lowlighted) by six losses in their final seven games.  The Jaguars did make some significant changes, but mostly of the departure variety.  Gone are veteran running back Fred Taylor, receiver Jerry Porter (a big time free agent bust last year), receiver Matt Jones, defensive end Paul Spicer, linebacker Mike Peterson, and cornerback Drayton Florence.  So what does Jacksonville have left?  Coach Jack Del Rio is back somewhat surprisingly, and there is some talent yes, but a lot of question marks,

Offensively, the Jaguars have a lot of question marks.  Quarterback David Garrard does have a lot of talent.  He has ability to make plays with his feet and he has an accurate arm.  However, last year he had trouble finding receivers and his leadership skills really came into question.  This is a make or break year for Garrard, and he will need to play well early to keep his job.  Considering his backup is Cleo Lemon, this will mean the Jags are in big trouble if Garrard doesn’t bounce back to his 2007 levels of production.  The food news for Jacksonville is the presence of Maurice Jones-Drew, who was re-signed in April for five more years.  Jones-Drew is one of the most dynamic runners in the league and also has great ability to catch out of the backfield.  There is no question that Jacksonville will rely on him heavily, but with Taylor’s departure he may need to be a one man show in the running game.  The receivers are an interesting mix, highlighted by addition Torry Holt from St. Louis.  Holt’s numbers dropped off so significantly last year with the Rams that they had no interest in bringing him back.  The Jaguars hope that a change of scenery will benefit him.  Dennis Northcutt and Tory Williamson provide some deep threats as well, but neither has been consistent in their production.  The Jaguars offensive line was a mess last year due to injuries, so they hope that a healthy group will mean better production in that area.   New addition Tra Thomas from Philadelphia should also help.

When Jacksonville made their playoff run two years ago, the defense was the backbone of the team.  That unit is not even close to the same group now.  It actually started last year when they lost star defensive tackle Marcus Stroud to Buffalo in free agency.  John Henderson remains one of the best in the business, and he will be glue for Jacksonville’s offensive line.  End Reggie Hayward is also good at rushing the passer, but the rest of the line is a work in progress.  The Jaguars are hoping for a better season from Derrick Harvey, who failed to meet expectations last year as a rookie.  The linebackers are unknown but are actually solid, with Daryl Smith leading the way in the middle.  The secondary has good talent as well, with cornerback Rashean Mathis leading the way, along with safety Reggie Nelson.  It is imperative for the Jaguars that this unit return to 2007 levels as well after being a disappointment last year.

Kicker Josh Scobee is very accurate, but punter Adam Podlesh may be on the hot seat.  The return game is also middle of the pack in the league, with Troy Wlliamson and Brian Witherspoon handling the return duties.

The Jaguars don’t seem to have a clear plan as to whether they are contending or rebuilding.  Either way, I don’t expect a return to 2007, but rather more of the same from last season.  even if they improve, they do play in a very difficult division, so either way it will be a long year for Jacksonville.

Coming next: the NFC South

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AFC North Preview

Posted by mizzou1028 on August 28, 2009

Once again, teams listed in predicted order of finish:

1. Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers have certainly been the standard for NFL franchises over a large part of their history.  They have won two of the past four Super Bowls (a league high six total) and seem built for big time success again this year.  Pittsburgh returns largely intact from last season’s championship club, which is fitting for a franchise that seems to symbolize stability in the NFL.  The Steelers also remember 2006, when they missed the playoffs they year after winning the Super Bowl.  They vow to not let that happen again.

The Steelers’ offense returns virtually identical to last year, and that’s bad news for NFL defenses.  The Steelers attack can really be defined by their game winning drive in the Super Bowl last year against Arizona.  Ben Roethlisberger showed everything you would want in a quarterback.  He showed ability to make plays with his feet out of the pocket and avoid critical sacks.  He showed he is willing and able to take a pounding, which not only allows him to be durable and not miss time due to injury, but also allows him to extend plays many quarterbacks won’t.  Even when he scrambles out of the pocket, Roethlisberger is willing to wait that split second longer for a receiver to get open even if it means taking an extra hit at the end of the play.  Roethlisberger has won Super Bowls in his first four years in the league, and the scary part is he can still get even better with experience.  He also has good targets to throw to in veteran Hines Ward and the speedy Santonio Holmes, along with his favorite red zone target, tight end Heath Miller.  Shaun McDonald was also signed from Detroit to provide depth.  The running game might also be even better than last year with the return of Rashard Mendenhall.  The first round pick of ’08 was shelved for the season in week four last year with a broken shoulder.  Mendenhall will join the very capable Willie Parker and should improve a running game that believe it or not ranked just 23rd in the NFL last season.  The fact the Steelers won it all with that stat is incredible, and they should benefit from a better running game this year.  The Steelers offensive line isn’t regarded as a top unit in the league and certainly isn’t flashy, but the entire line returns intact and continuity is never a bad thing.  Besides, they obviously got the job done well enough for the team to win the Super Bowl.

The defense did sustain two losses in linebacker Larry Foote (now with Detroit) and cornerback Bryant McFadden (gone to Arizona).  The Steelers do however still boast a sure top five defensive player in linebacker James Harrison, who turned the Super Bowl in Pittsburgh’s favor with a 100-yard interception return TD.  The defensive front seven also boasts other good talent in nose tackle Casey Hampton, defensive end Aaron Smith and linebacker James Farrior.  The Steelers also added more depth in the draft, selecting defensive end Ziggy Hood from Missouri in the first round.  His 6-3, 300 frame should fit right in with the Steelers’s smashmouth philosophy.  The secondary is also still very solid, anchored by Pro Bowl safety Troy Polamalu.  Cornerbacks William Gay and Deshea Townsend will need to step up to offset the loss of McFadden.

It is also surprising to realize that the Steelers really played musical chairs at punter last season (not that they needed one too often), but Daniel Sepulveda is back to take that job again after undergoing ACL surgery last season.  Kicker Jeff Reed is among the best in the business and has learned how to handle to tricky kicking conditions at Heinz Field, especially in the open end of the stadium.  The Steelers do hope that third round draft choice Mike Wallace of Ole Miss can emerge as a capable kick returner, but Mewelde Moore can handle those duties as well.

I say the Steelers are as close to a lock as you can get to returning to the playoffs.  They have shown over the years they can stand up to tough competition, they can win on the road, and they know how to win.   Factor in that they are still motivated, and the Steelers should repeat as division champs.

2. Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens bounced back last year to make the AFC title game, even though the had a rookie coach and a rookie quarterback.  The fact that both of those positions had changed tells you that things weren’t so good the year before.  The Ravens have a solid veteran presence in other areas, which helped them overcome a 2-3 start.  At one point Baltimore had won seven out of eight games, and they won playoff road games at Miami and Tennessee.  However, the Ravens were 0-3 against the Steelers, including the AFC title game loss.  Baltimore knows that in order to take the next step, they need to learn how to beat Pittsburgh.

The Ravens have always been known as a defensive team, and that’s still the identity and strength, but the offense also proved they could score points last year.  Quarterback Joe Flacco shocked almost everyone in his rookie season, Flacco showed good ability to read defenses, has a strong arm, and an ability to make plays with his feet.  He is the only signal caller to win two road playoff games as a rookie, and also posted a solid 90.2 quarterback rating, which is among the best ever for a rookie.  With another year of experience, Flacco could be even better this season.  He is also pleased to have veteran receiver Derrick Mason back for another season.  Mason retired during the offseason, but it wasn’t long before he changed his mind and said he got the itch to play one more season.  He’ll be paired with the talented Mark Clayton, who along with tight end Todd Heap gives the Ravens an underrated group of receivers for Flacco to find.  The running game should also be a strength of the team, for Willis McGahee is showing a renewed attitude after a disappointing season last year in which he rushed for under 700 yards.  Ray Rice showed lots of flash as a rookie last season, and could prove to be a good compliment to McGahee.  The odd man out could be Le’Ron McClain, who was actually Baltimore’s leading rusher last year, but he has been getting more work at fullback and could be limited to goal line duty.    The offensive line did a great job last season, and the Ravens feel they have fortified it with the addition of first round pick Michael Oher of Ole Miss, and the signing of center Matt Birk from Minnesota.

The Ravens’ defense has consistently been a top three unit for virtually the entire decade, and there isn’t much reason to think it won’t be terrific again.  Linebacker Ray Lewis could be a future Hall of Famer, and his enthusiasm and intensity trickles down to the entire defense.  Terrell Suggs is a terrific pass rusher, and the Ravens also have good push on the edge with Trevor Pryce and Haloti Ngata.  The front seven will feel the loss of Bart Scott to the Jets, but they hope that some of that void can be filled by second round pick Paul Kruger of Utah.  The secondary is still very good with ballhawking safety Ed Reed leading the way.  The Ravens also have veteran corners in Samari Rolle and Fabian Washington, and they hope new addition Dominique Foxworth will add depth as well. The Ravens defense should be stingy again, but age could be a concern for this veteran group.

The Ravens lost veteran kicker Matt Stover to free agency, so they will go with an unknown in Steve Hauschka.  Punter Sam Koch is solid, the Ravens hope the return game will be solidified with the addition of the speedy Chris Carr from Tennessee.

Baltimore certainly has the talent to return to the playoffs.  The defense will keep them in every game and the veteran leadership is always a plus.  They do will face stiff competition in the AFC, and age and injuries could catch up with them.  The key coud well be the play of Flacco in his second season at quarterback.

3. Cincinnati Bengals – It has been 19 years since Cincinnati has won a playoff game.  The Bengals have long been a symbol for league futility, except for their division title in 2005.  Even then, they stubbed their toe in a home playoff loss to the eventual Super Bowl champion Steelers.  Since then, the Bengals have not come close to achieving their potential, especially with all the talent they have had on offense.  Fans are getting restless, games may not sell out this year, and last year’s 0-8 start only made things worse.  The good news for Bengal nation is they did win their final three games last year, and hope may be coming.

For starters, Carson Palmer is back under center.  Palmer missed most of last season with an elbow injury.  Palmer managed to avoid offseason surgery, and the Bengals hope he will be back to his old self.  Palmer is quite possibly the most accurate deep passer in the league, and he is outstanding in the pocket.  There is no question in my mind that Palmer is a no brainer top 5 QB when healthy, and his presence should spark something in the Bengals’ offense.  The Bengals did lose start wideout T.J. Houshmanzadeh to Seattle, but they still have Chad Ochocinco (I really want to type “Johnson” but the dude actually changed his name legally).  I believe that Ochocinco has a renewed attitude this year and something to prove.  He wants to prove he is not a me guy and that he can really help the team win.  The Bengals also replaced Houshmanzadeh by raiding the Jets for Laveranues Coles.  Coles is still very capable, and paired with third wideout Chris Henry, the passing game has the potential to be very dangerous as it was in ’05.  The Bengals also found a very pleasant surprise in their running game last year in Cedric Benson.  The former top five pick from the Bears has found new life in the Queen City, and could be in line for another good year if defenses are concerned with stopping the passing attack.  The Bengals do have issues along the offensive line, losing Stacy Andrews and Levi Jones in free agency, and as of yet have not signed their first round draft pick, tackle Andre Smith from Alabama.  The selection of Smith with the sixth overall pick was a curious one indeed being that he missed most of the scouting combine and showed very questionable attitude during the pre-draft period.  Oh, and he was woefully out of shape too.  Now he is embroiled in a lengthy holdout.  It is imperative that the Bengals get good play from the line so they can keep Palmer healthy.  Right now, that is a question mark.

The Bengals did make an effort to beef up their defense in the offseason.  They signed defensive tackle Tank Johnson away from Dallas, and while he has had character issues in the past, the Bengals hope he will benefit from the fresh start.  They are desperate after getting just 11 sacks from their down linemen last season.  The Bengals also addressed linebacker in the draft for the second straight year, tabbing USC linebacker Ray Maualuga in the second round.  I thought Maualuga was clear first round talent, so the Bengals appear to have gotten great value there.  Paired with last year’s first round pick Keith Rivers, The Bengals’ linebackers appear to be on the way up.  The Cincinnati secondary also benefited from the Cowboys’ overhaul, as safety Roy Williams also signed with the Bengals.  Cincinnati does have decent corners in Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph, so Williams’ presence should help .  Overall, the Bengal D should be at least somewhat improved this season.

Kicker Shayne Graham is one of the best in the league.  The Bengals think so much of him they used their franchise tag on him.  Fifth round draft pick Kevin Huber is projected to be the starting punter, so that area could end up being an adventure for the Bengals.  Unknowns Andre Caldwell and Antonio Chatman will handle the return duties.

Cincinnati is trying to rebuild.  They seem to have added some good pieces and with Palmer healthy there should be some improvement.  This is not a playoff team yet, but they might be moving back in the right direction.

4. Cleveland Browns – The Browns fell back to Earth last year after a surprise run in 2007 that almost had them in the playoffs.  Last year the team took several steps back thanks to a quarterback controversy that still lingers and a six game losing streak to close the season in which they didn’t score a single offensive touchdown and got shut out in their final two contests.  Not surprisingly, this cost Romeo Crennel his job as head coach.  He was replaced ironically by fellow former Patriots assistant Eric Mangini.

The Browns still do not know who will be under center week one against the Vikings.  Last year Derek Anderson had the job at the start of the season only to lose it to Brady Quinn in November.  Neither one performed well, and now the competition is still open through the preseason.  It had seemed to be Quinn’s job for good when he got it last year, being that he was Cleveland’s first round pick in 2007, but he performed so poorly that it opened the door back up for Anderson.  Neither player has done enough to gain an edge yet in preseason, so this could be shaping up to be another year of musical chairs at the position for the Browns, and that is never a good thing.  The Browns do have a very talented wideout in Braylon Edwards, but he can’t do it all by himself.  Second round picks Brian Robiskie of Ohio State and Mohamed Massoquoi of Georgia will be counted on heavily to contribute, as will journeyman wideout David Patton and tight end Steve Heiden.  The running game could also be a question mark, even though Jamal Lewis still has the talent to be an outstanding tailback.  Lewis still rushed for over 1,000 last year, but he didn’t have a single 100-yard game.  It wouldn’t come as a surprise if Jerome Harrison got more carries as the year went on.  The offensive line is a mixed bag, for left tackle Joe Thomas has made two Pro Bowls, and Eric Steinbach is solid alongside him at guard, but the line will be anchored by rookie center Alex Mack of California.  Mack was the team’s first round draft pick, and will need to learn under fire quickly.

The defense will definitely have a new look.  Mangini brought along a staggering six players from his old defense with the Jets to Cleveland (Eric Barton, David Bowens, Kenyon Coleman, Abram Elam, C.J. Mosley and Hank Poteat).  For those keeping score at home, that’s that’s two defensive ends, two linebackers, one cornerback and one safety.  None of those players is exactly a household name among football fanatics, and it’s not like the Jets defense was that great at stopping people last year. Mangini obviously sees something he likes to bring them all over, or perhaps he just doesn’t want to deal with the unfamilar.   The new additions will join defensive tackle Shaun Rodgers, who was Cleveland’s big ticket free agent signing before last season.  The linebackers took a big hit with the retirement of Willie McGinest and the departure of Andra Davis to Denver in free agency.  Needless to say, the entire Browns defense still looks like a need area.

The special teams might be the one strength of the team.  Kicker Phil Dawson and punter Dave Zastudil are both very reliable, and Josh Cribbs might well be the most excting kick returner in the NFL.  Cribbs is so dangerous that he’ll be counted on to set the offense up in good enough field position that they won’t have to do much to score.

A rebuilding year is definitely in the cards for the Browns.  There are just too many need areas to expect a good year.  At some point they need to get the quarterback situation figured out, and that is the first step.  This team is very young.  If they can show improvement throughout the year, they might be able to at least have something to look forward to in 2010.

Coming next: the NFC North

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Favre + Vikings = Super Bowl

Posted by mizzou1028 on August 19, 2009

I have to admit I thought the whole Brett Favre saga was done.  I thought he was really retired this time.  I know I know, he’s done this before, and undoubtedly he now holds the NFL record for false retirements.  Wasn’t it three seasons ago he had what essentially was a tearful goodbye right after the season finale, a Sunday night game at Chicago?  Nevertheless, Favre will apparently play for the Vikings this season, which has to be a tough pill to swallow for Packers fans (Imagine John Elway in a Raiders uniform or Dan Marino in a Patriots jersey for comparison).  Green Bay thought they had dodged that bullet when they traded Favre to the Jets last season.  Heck, they even put a clause in the thing that required any team that acquired Favre from the Jets to surrender three first round picks to Green Bay.  Unfortunately for the Packers, they said nothing about the Jets releasing Favre (which the Jets did after they drafted Mark Sanchez).  This now means the Packers will have to contend with Favre head to head twice this year  Favre vs. Rodgers, one of them on a Monday night.  I can’t wait. 

Let’s make no mistake about this: Favre can still play a little.  He led the Jets to a 7-3 start last season before they collapsed.  While Favre was not on top of game in December last year, he was also not the only one responsible.  The Jets defense fell apart and so did their running game.  Favre can still throw the ball with zip for sure.  The biggest thing working against Favre is the same thing that has been his downfall at times his entire career: his tendency to throw interceptions.  The flipside of that is Favre has been able to make throws into traffic that few quarterbacks can make.  

Brett Favre, even at his age, is an upgrade over Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels, and that automatically makes the Vikings a better football team.  Minnesota was already a Super Bowl contender with their running game and defense, and this move may just put them over the top in the NFC.  In fact, I’m going to go ahead and pick the Vikings to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.  My season picks are still coming in the next few weeks, but I think considering the Vikings were already good, considering the fact that they were set at essentially every position except for QB, I think even a halfway decent Favre will be enough to put the Vikings over the top.  They have the league’s top running game with a physical offensive line and Adrian Peterson, and they also have arguably the league’s top defensive line and an excellent secondary.  Factor in their friendly schedule, and I think this is shaping up to be a big year for the Vikings.  In fact, they could have had this last year if they had been able to swing the deal for Favre then.  

I do feel bad for Jackson and Rosenfels.  They were both competing for what they thought was a starting QB job.  Now both are relegated to backup duty.  I think there is a decent chance one of them will be traded, especially if some team sees their signal caller go down in preseason and get desperate.  I do think Favre should have been up front and honest about his desire to return instead of waffling.  It is obvious that both he and the team knew exactly what was going on being that Favre was already practicing yesterday.  I know this makes me and others tired of Favre’s act.  Despite all that, I see a good year for him and a big year for the Vikings.  Minnesota is going to the Super Bowl.

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What Will We See From Mr. Vick?

Posted by mizzou1028 on August 14, 2009

It comes as no surprise that Michael Vick has found an NFL team.  To say otherwise would have been ridiculous, for everyone knew that Vick was going to latch on somewhere.  The question was, where?  The answer to that question is a surprise for me, for I did not see Vick in Philadelphia.  That being said I can’t say for sure that I had any clue where he ended up.  I was absolutely certain he wouldn’t be a starter right away if at all this year, so that opened up a plethora of teams as possibilities.  I was reasonably certain that there would only be a handful of coaches who would say no to him outright without a look.  Even though he hasn’t played in two years, those involved in the game know without a doubt that he is a unique talent.  I would even go as far to say that he was the most exciting player in the game when he was playing.  Not the best player by any means, but most exciting.  Coaches remember that talent and therefore we knew he would end up somewhere.  The question now is, what to expect out of him in Philadelphia?

The Eagles obviously are set at quarterback with Donovan McNabb, so we know right off the bat that Vick will not be in the starting lineup.  Let’s also remember that Vick is suspended by the commissioner until week six at the earliest (although he’ll be allowed to play in preseason).  Once week six rolls around, Roger Goodell still has to pull a trigger on full reinstatement.  Let’s assume for a moment that happens and Vick is allowed to play.  I think the biggest thing that Vick brings to the table is the ability to make plays with his feet.  That was always a much stronger part of his game than his ability to throw the football.  Given that, I think there are some very intriguing possibilities for the Eagles, and if they work, it could vault them to favorite status in the NFC.

Imagine for a moment the Eagles lining up in the following formation: McNabb in the shotgun, flanked by Brian Westbrook on one side and Vick on the other.  Just that alone can cause nightmares for a defense, because all three are very athletic and can make defenders miss in the open field.  Imagine being a defender and trying to figure out if it’s going to be Vick or Westbrook getting the football, or will it be McNabb trying to make something happen instead?  This is all assuming of course that we’re talking about the Michael Vick before his football exile.  Assuming that though for the moment, this could make the Eagles offense very exciting and tough to stop.  There could also be Wildcat possibilities with Vick throwing on occasion even while McNabb is on the field.  Factor in the other explosive weapons on the Eagles offense, including DeSean Jackson and rookie Jeremy Maclin, and Philadelphia could be lighting up the scoreboard often this season.  Then again, Vick may not be near the same player and could be a complete non-factor, in which case the Eagles still have a pretty darn good team that has to be rated toward the top of the NFC.  If Vick can be productive however, it could prove to be the tipping point for the Eagles.

I’ve heard a lot of chatter that Vick should not be allowed to play, and I think that is hogwash.  He’s been out of the game for two years without pay so he has certainly paid a stiff penalty.   I absolutely don’t condone what he did, but many other players in multiple sports have been back in the game after as bad or worse.  Besides, if Tony Dungy is in his corner (Dungy has been very active in working with Vick and in essence campaigning for him), that is good enough for me.  I just hope Vick doesn’t tear apart the Broncos defense when the Broncos play in Philadelphia on Dec. 27.  I still have vivid memories of Vick shredding the Broncos on Halloween in 2004, as the Broncos surrendered a franchise record 567 total yards.

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Quick Opinion: Marshall Will Stay, and He Will Have a Big Year

Posted by mizzou1028 on August 3, 2009

It is extremely difficult to believe that football season is fast approaching and that teams have already opened training camp.  This of course includes the Broncos, who are dealing with the distraction that is Brandon Marshall.  Despite his beef with the organization, Marshall has actually shown up on time, which is more than rookies Knoshawn Moreno and Robert Ayers can say, but he has missed lots of action already due to injury.  Nevertheless, it is no secret that Marshall demanded a trade in June, and many think he will still get it before the regular season starts.  I don’t.  Not only will Marshall be a Bronco this season, but I believe he is about to have a monster season in Josh McDaniels’ system.

The biggest issues that Marshall has with the Broncos are a lack of trust in the medical staff (owning to the fact that he played through a hip injury last season that he feels the team misdiagnosed), the changes in quarterback, and the departure of Mike Shanahan.  The medical staff issue is understandable, although it certainly seems as though they are being much more cautious with Marshall early in camp this year.  There obviously isn’t anything Marshall can do about the changes on the coaching staff and at QB, but I feel that once Marshall sees first hand what this offense could be capable of doing, he will find himself in no shortage of opportunities to make plays.  Josh McDaniels is a very good offensive mind.  Different from Shanahan maybe, but an excellent offensive mind nevertheless.  I also think that this offense will be much better than people realize.  While Kyle Orton does not have the raw talent of Jay Cutler, he has shown a much better attitude and seems to be a good fit for McDaniels’ system.  I also think that once Moreno shows up (and it had better be any day now), he will have a tremendous impact in the running game.  Couple those things with that fact the Broncos also expect big things from Eddie Royal, Brandon Stokley, et al, and Marshall should find this offense very much to his liking.

The bottom line on Brandon Marshall is that he is one of the most talented receivers in football.  His off the field issues have been well documented, but if he can ever get his head on straight he has a wonderful future in the NFL.  Given his issues, he is lucky not to be suspended by the league this season, and he is really playing with fire if he is trying to get a lucrative contract extension right now.  I believe in the end Marshall will realize he needs to have a good year  and also stay out of trouble in order to earn the extension and raise he is seeking.  I expect Brandon Marshall to be highly motivated when the regular season rolls around, and that will be terrific news for the Denver Broncos.

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This is Getting Ridiculous!

Posted by mizzou1028 on June 16, 2009

Tell me this isn’t happening again.  Another soap opera at Broncos headquarters.  Once again a key player is at the center of it, a player who has loads of talent.  Heck, this player can certainly be described as a very unique talent.  The player in question is unhappy, and has reportedly demanded a trade.  Sound familiar?  This did not work out as the Broncos hoped with Jay Cutler.  How will it work with Brandon Marshall?  Unfortunately, the Broncos might be about to find out.  Mr. Marshall did not show for the team’s mandatory minicamp over the weekend.  

Marshall is unquestionably the Broncos top receiver.  He has caught 100 balls each of the past two seasons.  He has breakaway speed, and an ability to make plays after the catch.  He has certainly made a statement in Denver after being selected in the fourth round of the 2006 draft.  Marshall is due to make $1.2 million this season, which sounds good but ranks 58th among wide receivers in the league.  Marshall is also reportedly upset with the team’s medical staff for failing to accurately diagnose his hip injury last season.  Marshall had surgery on the hip in the offseason, but played through the injury in the second half of last season.  Our friend Adam Schefter, who will be joining ESPN in August, told us this afternoon on KOA that Marshall demanded a trade last weekend when he met with owner Pat Bowlen.  

Jay Cutler has already forced his way out of Denver with unruly behavior.  Does Marshall think he can do the same?  Or is Marshall merely posturing to try and get a contract extension?  Seems to me that Marshall is acting very entitled considering his off the field behavior the past few years.  Marshall is extremely lucky he wasn’t suspended by Roger Goodell again for the coming season, and it seems to me that he doesn’t have the leverage to try and argue for an extension.  From a football standpoint, Marshall was among the league leaders in dropped balls last season, which is of course not a good category to be atop the league in.  Either way, Marshall is evoking memories of the whiny Cutler by acting like a child.  At least Marshall had the courtesy to meet with Bowlen face to face unlike Cutler, but the actions are still the same.  Not showing up for a required team activity is a very selfish action no matter how you slice it.  This is particularly true when a new offense is being installed and most the personnel around you is also new.

The Broncos say they have no intention of trading Brandon Marshall.  Really there isn’t any reason for them to, especially considering they would be unlikely to get fair value in return for him.  The Broncos have already fined Marshall $35,000 for missing the three day minicamp, and they can continue that action if he holds out in training camp.  At some point they will also be able to recoup signing bonus money.  If the Broncos can’t get fair value for Marshall, and it says here they won’t, then they will hold on to him.  At some point, based on how these things have gone historically, Marshall will show up.  If he doesn’t, he could quickly find himself on the same path as the last Bronco wideout to hold out.  This guy was a first round pick who was also flashy at times, and is now with his third team since leaving Denver.  His name?  Ashley Lelie, who will forever be associated with mediocrity in Denver.

Note to Marshall: Don’t be like Ashley Lelie.  Let’s not have a repeat of the Jay Cutler fiasco.  If it is, we have further evidence of poor character being brought in by the previous regime.  Josh McDaniels and company might have more cleaning up to do in any case, so let’s hope they can salvage something for the on field product in the fall.

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Come on Harrison!

Posted by mizzou1028 on May 19, 2009

So apparently James Harrison will not be accompanying his Steelers’ teammates to the White House.  For those unfamiliar, it has long been tradition for championship teams in all the major sports to receive an invitation to be honored by the president.  I think it goes without saying that this should be a big honor.  I don’t care if you like the president or not, the opportunity to simply be on the grounds of the White House, let al0ne get to shake hands with the president, is not something that the average person gets to experience.  I think for any player to turnthis chance down is needless to say a dumb decision.  For the record, my favorite player of all-time is John Elway, and I still call him out on his skipping out on the White House visits after the Broncos’ championships in the late 90s.  I think this is a very selfish and confusing decision by Harrison, but maybe that’s just me. 

In the case of Harrison, it is most perplexing for him to say that Arizona would have been invited had the Cardinals defeated the Steelers.  OF COURSE THEY WOULD HAVE!  THAT’S THE ENTIRE POINT!!!   The president invites the champion, regardless of who that team is.  What, did Harrison expect President Obama to single out the Steelers no matter what?  It seems that Mr. Harrison is insulted that the Steelers are only being invited because they are the Super Bowl champions.  The whole thing is very perplexing to say the least.

I want to know what you guys think on this one.  Is Harrison justified in turning down the invite to the White House?  Is he insulting his teammates by not joining them there?  Is he insulting the president?   Or, is this really not that big a deal?

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Broncos Draft Thoughts

Posted by mizzou1028 on April 29, 2009

I waited a few days after the NFL draft to post my thoughts on how the Broncos did because I needed time to digest their selections and determine whether or not I truly liked the moves the team made.  The truth is, like with every draft, it will be a minimum two seasons and probably three before we can really assign a grade to this or any team’s draft, so any opinion expressed now is really a shot in the dark.  For example, it looks like the Broncos’ draft of 2008 is good for the time being, as Ryan Clady and Eddie Royal both had outstanding rookie seasons.  We still need to wait another year or two however before we can truly evaluate that draft as a whole.  That said, I have a few thoughts on the Broncos’ selections from last weekend:

The Good:

– I really like Knoshawn Moreno.  A lot.  I know running back was not necessarily a need area with so many bodies on the roster already (including free agent signings Correll Buckhalter, J.J. Arrington and LaMont Jordan), especially in light of the money committed to that position already in the offseason, but I think Moreno could make an immediate impact for the Broncos.  I think a lot of times teams make a mistake of reaching for a position of need (more on that in a moment) and often pass up on special talents that could actually make the team better over the long haul.  I think Moreno could well be the offensive rookie of the year, for he possesses tremendous speed, breakaway ability, and ability to break tackles.  I watched enough Georgia games last year to see that Moreno is the real deal.  The other thing I like about him is he didn’t come from one of these spread offenses you see in college.  He actually learned how to pass block and be effective as a receiver out of the backfield.  If all goes well, Moreno could be the Broncos’ starter week one.  I don’t think there is any question he was the best back on the board and certainly a big playmaker.  Let’s face it, the Broncos haven’t had a consistent tailback since Clinton Portis, so it would be nice to have a consistent running game to rely on again.  Too many times last year the Broncos were unable to convert on 3rd and short, and it really cost them.  If Moreno can move the chains on 3rd & 3, it will not only  help the offense be better, but it also means less time the defense would be on the field.  That could be a win-win for the Broncos.  I really think Moreno could end up the offensive rookie of the year.

– The Broncos I think got an steal with the 18th pick in defensive end Robert Ayers of Tennessee.  Denver will be switching to a 3-4 defense under Mike Nolan, and Ayers is one of the few defensive ends in the draft that could actually fit well in that scheme.  Ayers will have a lot of pressure on him to perform since he’s the only defensive front seven player the Broncos picked, but he also shouldn’t have much competition to beat out for the job.  If the coaches are to be believed, he definitely has the skills to rush the passer and cause havoc.  

– I think the Broncos got first round talent when they selected Alphonso Smith, cornerback at Wake Forest in the second.  He seems to have great instincts and has an ability to intercept the ball.  He may be undersized at 5-9, but he makes up for it with great cover speed and his ability to make plays.  He can also contribute in the kick return game.  Coupled with the signings in free agency, the Broncos secondary should be vastly improved from a year ago.  

– I think the Broncos really made an effort to get guys who can help on special teams.  In addition to Smith, they took Notre Dame’s David Bruton in the fourth round.  The reports on Bruton say that he is a real player on special teams.  Texas Tech’s Darcel McBath has a reputation for being a special teams gunner too.  This could be very key for the Broncos being that they ranked dead last in starting field position for opposing teams last year.  If other teams start at say, their own 20 instead of the 35 or 40, don’t you think that will make a huge difference for the defense?  I think the importance of this is not to be underestimated and is really being overlooked by those who are blasting the new regime.

– I’ve had a chance to see the press conferences of each of the picks in the first two rounds, and have sat in on teleconferences with the remaining picks, and I have been extremely impressed by the demeanor of all of them.  Not to say that character necessarily will win you games, but it is really nice to see the Broncos picking quality kids.  Too many times at the end of the Shanahan era, you’d see players have issues off the field.  I have a feeling that won’t be an issue with any of these guys.

The Questionable:

– I think it is fair to wonder why the Broncos didn’t really address the defensive front seven.  This was clearly a need area and was seemingly ignored, save for the selection of Ayers.  I do think if B.J. Raji was there at 12, the Broncos might have taken him and hoped Moreno was there at 18, but Raji was long gone when the Broncos’ turn came.  It does seem a little odd on the surface to spend free agency resources on running back and secondary and then double up on those areas in the draft.  The optimistic side of me says that the Broncos think they need rebuilding everywhere and took the best players available regardless of position.  On that note, why reach for defensive linemen if you don’t think one is there that is worth taking?  The 2007 draft, which featured defensive linemen Jarvis Moss, Tim Crowder and Marcus Thomas, hasn’t exactly paid off, so perhaps McDaniels and his staff would be equally ripped for taking guys at that position that didn’t pan out.  I do wonder what the Broncos can expect from the current defensive front seven, although the hope is that guys will be healthier than last year.  I think the front seven is a question mark, and it would have nice to see the Broncos address it, but perhaps they will be proven right in their belief that this draft wasn’t deep in that area and that they would have been reaching for guys with lower value than what they selected.  Time will tell.

– I found the trades the Broncos made in the draft to be curious.  They surrendered a first round pick in 2010 for the right to pick Smith in the second round.  If the Broncos struggle again as they have the past two years, this has the potential to be a top 10 pick next year.  Of course, it is very laughable to be able to claim to know where the pick will be a year from now.  I have heard form too many idiots who are convinced the Broncos dealt away a top 5 pick.  Like anyone really knows, especially being that we’re coming off a season where Arizona made the Super Bowl.  I am generally not one for trading a first round pick for a second rounder, so I am skeptical about that part of it, but if Smith turns out to be a major impact player, than the trade would be worth it in the long run.  

– The Broncos also traded two 3rd round picks to move up into the second round, which isn’t necessarily bad on the surface, but they used the pick on North Carolina tight end Richard Quinn.  Quinn caught a total of 12 passes in his career at North Carolina, and while he is a fantastic blocker, doesn’t seem to be worth a second round selection.  I visited with a former scout at Broncos headquarters on Sunday who said he had Quinn rated as a fifth round prospect.  The knock here is not in any way on Quinn, who seems like a great kid, seems like a perfect fit for Josh McDaniels’ system and could really provide some tight end depth, but rather on the Broncos taking Quinn in that spot.  It seems like the Broncos could have selected Quinn with one of the third round picks they traded to move up to that spot, or maybe even later in the draft.  Josh McDaniels did say that he wasn’t even remotely concerned with where other teams had players rated, and like I said he seems to be a great kid, but was he worth trading two picks for?  

Overall, I think the Broncos’ draft did not go as anyone really expected.  They took three secondary players, and actually spent more picks on offense than they did on defense.  Perhaps it was shocking also that McDaniels took a quarterback in the sixth round with the initials T.B.  It is also ironic that Tom Brandstater of Fresno State has an identical size and weight to McDaniels’ protege Matt Cassel.  Something there tells me that we may in fact see this kid taking snaps for the Broncos around 2012.  In fact, it will probably be 2012 before we can really assign this draft a grade.  I am frankly sick of Broncos fans bashing McDaniels, even though a lot of it is still remnants from the Cutler trade.  I say let’s give him a chance.  Give him a chance to build a roster, and let’s see if we’re winning games again this year or maybe even next.  I think we might just be surprised.  I’m not saying playoffs or Super Bowl, but I know it’s no sure bet that Denver’s pick that they traded next year will be in the top 10.

Just remember, the first game is against Cincinnati.  That should be at least one win right there.

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Schedule Thoughts

Posted by mizzou1028 on April 15, 2009

It says something about the popularity of the NFL that the release of the schedule is now a two hour prime time event.  I somehow feel less stupid knowing I can’t possibly be the only one who eagerly anticipates the release of the schedule.  If nothing else, it’s nice to know what it is so I can plan around it.  For instance, I know that the Broncos will be playing on Thanksgiving night, so my family will know they shouldn’t plan to see me, things like that.   At any rate, my initial thoughts on the Broncos’ 2009 slate:

– Somehow it seems ridiculous that the Broncos will be opening on the road for the fifth straight year and the seventh season in the past eight.  That being said, the reason for this is actually relatively simple.  CBS always has the final round of the U.S. Open tennis tournament during week one of the NFL season, and they always air the men’s final in the late afternoon slot where the second wave of games normally takes place.  Since the Broncos will never be required to have an 11 a.m. home kickoff, the only way they could open at home would be if they host an NFC team on Fox (which was actually thought to be taking place this year, since sources had speculated the Broncos would host Dallas in week one), or if they hosted a Sunday or Monday night game.  Since the Broncos aren’t an elite team these days, the latter option is clearly out, and since the league put Cowboys-Broncos in week four, you’ve got Denver on the road in an early game again.  But hey, at least it’s in Cincinnati against the hapless Bengals.

– It is imperative that Denver gets off to a fast start, since they open with the two Ohio teams (both of which figure to be down again, at least the way things are looking now) and the Raiders.  If the Broncos start 1-2 or 0-3, they will be in huge trouble.

– That’s because the Broncos have a very rigorous five game stretch after that.  They have two home games against Dallas (who could be an elite team without the distraction of Mount TO) and New England (certainly a tough chore since Bill Belichick figures to have an idea of how to slow down Josh McDaniels’ offense).  After that is a Monday nighter in San Diego, a place where the Broncos have been soundly humiliated each of the past three seasons, not to mention a place where the host Chargers will be really fired up for a prime time national audience.  After that game, the bye could be a huge help for the Broncos, because they will then deal with a trip to Baltimore (where the nasty Ravens D awaits) and then a Monday night home game against defending champ Pittsburgh.  If the Steelers are as good as last season, the home field edge may not be much help if the Broncos are banged up heading into that game.

– The Broncos do not have a division home game until late November.  In fact, four of their final seven games will be against AFC West opponents.  The good news is three of those four games will be at Invesco Field at Mile High.  If the Broncos are stumbling midway through the season, they will have a chance to pick up ground in the division late.  On the flip side, the Broncos can’t afford to stumble late this year even if they do start fast out of the gate.  

– Both meetings against Kansas City will be in the final five weeks, so we’ll have to wait to see what happens when McDaniels coaches against former protege Matt Cassel.  It will be interesting to see how that matchup unfolds considering that McDaniels tried to acquire Cassel in late February.  

– The Broncos have two very difficult December road trips to Indianapolis and Philadelphia, not to mention the trip to Arrowhead Stadium is also in December.

– I for one am excited about the Thanksgiving night home game against the Giants.  I think it could be one of the most electric atmospheres the Broncos have experienced since moving into their new digs in 2001.  When the Broncos played a Thanksgiving night game in Kansas City in 2006, it was clearly a playoff atmosphere.  If the Broncos are going to play on Thanksgiving with a short week, they might as well reap the benefits of playing at home while the other team is the one dealing with travel and less time to rest and get ready.  I realize that many people don’t think games should be played on holidays at all, but I’m not one of them.  I think it’s a great idea that fans all around the league, not just those in Detroit and Dallas, can now experience Thanksgiving football.  

– It’s nice to see the Broncos get a little prime time love, with two Monday night games and the Thanksgiving game.  

– A couple of members of the Broncos’ secondary can look forward to some reunions.  Champ Bailey will play his first game in Washington since being dealt from the Redskins to the Broncos in 2004 (the Broncos will also see old friend Clinton Portis).  Brian Dawkins will make an eagerly anticipated return to Philadelphia in week 16, and I suspect he should get a very warm reception from the Eagle faithful that never wanted him to leave.  

– It is unknown at this time which two games will feature the Broncos in their 1960 throwback unis, but I am actually looking forward to seeing the ugly mustard jerseys with brown pants and the vertical striped socks.  It should easily be the most unusual of the eight original AFL teams that will don throwback unis this season.  I would suspect the throwback games will be games within the division since all four AFC West teams are original AFL clubs.  

I say throw out winning percentages from 2008 when looking at the schedule.  Those will mean nothing, and have no impact on how good a team will be in 2009.  Considering this bit of information, it is impossible to truly evaluate how difficult the schedule could be, but it certainly seems on paper that the Broncos will have a difficult slate in 2009.  Of course, the fortunes of many teams will change on draft day in two weeks, and it’s safe to say that many teams will have a very different look when they actually take the field in week one.  Regardless, it’s fun to see what the schedule actually looks like, especially for those of us who are going through football withdrawal these days.

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Note to Broncos Fans: It’s Not As Bad As You Think

Posted by mizzou1028 on April 6, 2009

I am really getting tired of hearing all the whining from my fellow Broncos fans in the past few days.  Look, I wish the Jay Cutler saga had never happened same as you.  It is really unfortunate that the relationship between Cutler and Josh McDaniels deteriorated so severely that the team had no choice but to deal him.  Part of me does shudder at the thought of Kyle Orton running the Broncos offense.  I do wonder sometimes if it was really the best thing for the Broncos to fire Mike Shanahan in the first place, hire an offensive mind to replace him, and then unload the 25-year old franchise quarterback.  Despite all that, a little digging is all that needs to be done to see that things are not always as they seem.  In fact, the Broncos may just be a better football TEAM than they were last season.

It seems appropriate to start with Shanahan since it was really his firing that started this mess in the first place.  While I’m not sure firing him was the answer, it is easy to see why the Broncos did it.  Shanahan was amazingly successful in his first four years, compiling a 54-18 record in those four seasons, including two Super Bowl championships.  Of course Shanahan also had Pro Bowl talent at seemingly every position on offense (including John Elway, Terrell Davis, and Shannon Sharpe just to name a few players) and an excellent defense during those four years.  After Elway’s retirement, Shanahan won just ONE playoff game during a ten year period.  The Broncos actually in fact missed the playoffs during 6 of Shanahan’s final 10 seasons in Denver.  In each of the four years the Broncos did make the playoffs during that time, they got blasted out of the wild card round three times by an average of 25 points a game, and then lost at home to Pittsburgh by 17 points in the 2005 AFC title game.  Shanahan’s tenure also became littered with increasingly poor personnel moves, including Dale Carter, Ashley Lelie, Javon Walker and Travis Henry just to name a few.  Not only were the players Shanahan brought in largely unproductive, many of them were also thugs off the field.  It seemed as though the longer Shanahan’s playoff woes continued, the more desperate he got in terms of personnel.

After the AFC title game loss to Pittsburgh, it was clear that for whatever reason Shanahan decided he could not win a championship with Jake Plummer.  This despite the fact that it was Denver’s defense that couldn’t get the Steelers off the field on third down, and despite an offensive line that got whipped all day by the Steelers’ front seven.  Enter Jay Cutler.  Shanahan selected him with the 11th overall pick (after trading up to get him), so it was clear to everyone that he would be Denver’s starter eventually.  The next season the Broncos started 7-2, despite Shanahan really scaling back the playbook for Plummer and not giving him freedom to do much of anything.  In the 10th game, the Broncos held a 24-7 third quarter lead against San Diego only to see the Chargers roar back to win 35-27 in Denver.  If you connect the dots, it is easy to see that Plummer was not on defense allowing a career day to LaDainian Tomlinson.  Nevertheless, word leaked that Plummer was going to be benched, which he was after a loss in Kansas City.  Mind you, Plummer’s career record in Denver is 39-15, which is certainly not in any way bad.  Cutler started the final five games, going just 2-3, and the Broncos missed the playoffs.  

So why do I bring up all this?  Well for starters I believe Denver would have easily made the playoffs that year had Shanahan stuck with Plummer, but that’s not really the point.  The point is I believe the benching of Plummer in favor of Cutler at that time signaled the beginning of the end of Shanahan in Denver.  I believe Shanahan made that move knowing that there was little to no chance he would be fired.  He knew that even if Cutler tanked in those final five games, that he would still be safe for multiple seasons to come.  While Cutler actually fared well in those five games at times, the team ultimately missed the playoffs in part due to very poor red zone execution against a very poor San Francisco team in the season’s final game.  The next two seasons the Broncos went just 15-17.  The Jay Cutler-led Denver offense had the following doozies over those two seasons:

– A woeful 10 point performance in a 2007 home loss to Jacksonville in which the Broncos mustered less than 250 yards of total offense

– A 41-3 home loss to San Diego in week 5 of 2007

– A 44-7 loss at Detroit in 2007

– Another three point effort by the offense in a Monday night loss at San Diego in 2007

– A four turnover performance and 19-point showing in a loss at Kansas City this season, one of only two wins recorded by the Chiefs.  This against a Chiefs defense that routinely got lit up for 30, 40 (and sometimes 50!) points.  

– A 41-7 thrashing in New England on Monday night (not coinciedently, McDaniels coached against Cutler in that game, more on that in a moment)

– An absolutely pitiful 10 point performance at home against an awful Raiders team

– A three game collapse to cap 2008, in which the Broncos gave away the AFC west.  This was capped by an extremely embarrassing 52-21 defeat in San Diego.  

The point here is that Shanahan was fired largely because the Broncos had slipped into mediocrity.  The numbers even prove it, for the Broncos have gone just 24-24 over the past three seasons (17-20 since Plummer was benched for Cutler).  That is, the entire team slipped into mediocrity.  By the end of 2008 the defense had just two players who would be a guaranteed starter for most teams: Champ Bailey and D.J. Williams.  The offense certainly looked flashy, ranking second in the NFL in yards, but it ranked much, much lower than that in points (try 16th in the league).  Consider that the Broncos had 17 drives in the final two minutes of either half last season that resulted in a total of one field goal.  How about the constant failure to score touchdowns in the red zone?  Keeping in mind that the Broncos really did not have a running game due to all the injuries at running back last season, there were still too many drives that should have resulted in points and didn’t, or drives that should have netted seven points but only got three.  The point is that the Broncos’ offense really wasn’t as good as the numbers made it out to be.  They certainly got yards between the 20s, but didn’t score enough points to even rank in in the top half of the league, let alone the top five.  So really, Jay Cutler made the Pro Bowl for his performance between the 20s.  In fact, if the voting was conducted after the season instead of finishing in week 14, I’ll bet you a year’s worth of pizza that Philip Rivers, not Cutler, would have gotten the trip to Hawaii.  Couple this offensive inefficiency with a defense that couldn’t tackle anyone, and it resulted in Shanahan’s dismissal.  

Enter Josh McDaniels.  I mentioned the Broncos’ 41-7 loss in New England this past season.  It is fitting that the Broncos ended up giving their future coach a first hand demonstration of EVERYTHING that was wrong with the team.  The Patriots were coming off a 30-10 loss in San Diego, and really few people were taking them seriously at that point with Matt Cassel under center.  The Broncos were favored to win the game in large part because of Cutler and the offense.  The Broncos’ offense ended up committing five turnovers, including two interceptions thrown by Cutler.  Cutler had a very pedestrian effort in that game, throwing for just 168 yards.    The only touchdown the Broncos scored came in garbage time in the fourth quarter after it was 34-0.  Throw out the meaningless stats the Broncos accumulated inthe second half, and it might well have been Denver’s worst offensive performance of the entire Shanahan era.  The defense certainly had its faults in the game too, surrendering a staggering 257 yards on the ground (including a career high 138 by Sammy Morris (who hit the century mark by early in the second quarter) and another 65 to BenJarvus Green-Ellis (who I had never heard of until that game).  This is not to say that one game made the season or that McDaniels has based his dealings in Denver on what he saw that night, but it does show that the Broncos were flawed in multiple areas before McDaniels took over.  His job is to improve the team.   By any means necessary.

McDaniels has certainly gutted the defense and brought in new blood, and figures to add some more defensive presence in the draft.  The addition of Brian Dawkins alone will have a monster impact not only in the secondary but also in the locker room.  The addition of Mike Nolan as defensive coordinator I believe will make a bigger impact than most people realize.  Nolan’s no nonsense approach has proven successful in the past when he has been a coordinator.  McDaniels hasn’t touched the offensive line, which has two future perennial Pro Bowl tackles in Ryan Clady and Ryan Harris, and came close to setting a record for fewest sacks allowed last season.  He’s not making many changes to the receiving core, save for adding Jabar Gaffney, whose presence will come in handy if Brandon Marshall misses a lot of time due to suspension.  He elected to retain running backs coach Bobby Turner and offensive line coach Rick Dennison, which means the Broncos’ running game should be able to return to past success if they can keep a back healthy.  Overall the changes McDaniels have made are certainly sweeping, but it’s obvious that he’s been addressing areas of need.  

Which brings us back to Cutler.  Most Broncos fans hitting the panic button right now seem to be forgetting that one player, and specifically a quarterback, does not win games by himself, no matter how talented he is.  For example, I love Drew Brees, but how many games did the Saints win last year?  How about the Cowboys and Tony Romo?  How many playoff games has Cincinnati won with Carson Palmer under center?  Does any Broncos fan remember 1998, the year of the second Super Bowl victory?  Does any Broncos fan remember that John Elway missed four games that year due to injury, in addition to parts of three others?  Does any Denver fan remember the Broncos going 7-0 in those games thanks to the play of Bubby Brister?  

The point is that a good quarterback can help you win, but there are many different ways in which that can happen.  Jay Cutler is talented no question, and certainly the Broncos are losing a signal caller who talent wise is a top five QB.  Cutler’s leadership qualities however really have to be questioned.  Not just because of the past month, but because of what happened in the games I mentioned above and in other Denver losses.  How many great quarterbacks do you know who have a hard time keeping their composure?  Can you imagine Tom Brady throwing a hissy fit when a receiver drops a pass to the point where he’ll force a pass into triple coverage on the next play?  Can you imagine Peyton Manning crying like a baby because a touchdown got called back due to penalty?  Is it possible to imagine Ben Roethlisberger or Philip Rivers ducking the media after every loss?  Can you imagine any of these great quarterbacks pouting every time they are criticized?  To the contrary, a great quarterback has the ability to remain in control at all times, to not be affected by adversity, to be able to tell his teammates that the job will get done no matter the situation.  A great quarterback is a true leader, someone who commands respect and exudes confidence in himself and his team.  Now I ask any of you: has Jay Cutler really shown any of these qualities at any point in his young career?  

Enter Kyle Orton.  Not I’m not saying that Orton will come to Denver and be the answer to all of Denver’s problems, but already the attitude is a vast improvement over Cutler’s.  Less than 24 hours after being dealt to the Broncos, Orton had lengthly phone conversations with Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, and both receivers came away excited.  This is quite the contrast from Cutler ignoring his teammates’ calls for the past month in addition to those of the coaching staff and owner Pat Bowlen.  Orton has already dived into the offensive playbook, and is showing a willingness to work hard that frankly was hard to see in Cutler.  If Cutler really wanted to stay in Denver, don’t you think he would have shown that by at least studying the playbook?  So far, I detect from Kyle Orton a really positive vibe, and I think he is a quarterback his teammates will respect when they are 10 down in the fourth quarter.  Did you realize that Orton was on track for a Pro Bowl year last year before hurting his ankle midseason?  In 2005, the Bears won eight games in a row with Orton under center.  His career record is 21-12 as a starter.  Think about it.  Does that sound so bad?  

The Broncos are certainly going to have a different look this season no question.  Heck, the team is even busting out the really ugly 1960 brown and mustard throwback unis, vertical striped socks and all, for two games this season. I have a feeling though that Broncos fans will like what they see.  Keep in mind that McDaniels comes from an organization that has been the league standard for the past decade.  Keep in mind that Orton might just be a good fit in his system, or have you already forgotten that Matt Cassel came out of nowhere last year, or even that Brady was a complete no name until Drew Bledsoe’s injury?  Keep in mind that much of the other offensive talent is still in place, that the defense is well in the process of being retooled, and that quick turnarounds are indeed possible in the NFL.  I ask you: if the Broncos go 10-6 and are a wild card team, is that not an improvement?  What if they win a playoff game in year two, and maybe a Super Bowl in year four?  I’m not saying that’s necessarily how it’s going to go, but what if that’s how it does?

To those who want McDaniels fired: shut up.  The coach will not be fired before he coaches a game.  Let’s at least wait and see what happens when actual games are played before we get really stirred up about Cutler’s departure.  I think you might just find that you like these new look Broncos better.  Remember, it’s about winning games, not flashy stats and rocket arms.  

To those who cancel their season tickets and/or jump off the bandwagon: keep walking and don’t come back.  There is nothing I can’t stand more than a fan who bails on his team at the drop of a hat.  If you leave the team now, you shouldn’t be allowed to return when things are good again.  Being a fan is about staying with your team through thick and thin, even if you don’t necessarily agree with their direction.  Being a fan is easy when times are good, but the true fans are the ones who are still fans at times like this.  Just remember that things are not always as they seem, and the 2009 Denver Broncos are not as doomed as you think they are.

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