Reid Fischer's World of Rants

Looking at the sports world through orange colored glasses

Week Ten Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on November 7, 2008

Obviously we’re off to a flying start this week after being incorrect on the Thursday night game, but as I’ve said I am ecstatic that I was wrong and the Broncos didn’t lose.  Before we get to the picks, bad news for the Broncos today, as Ryan Torain is done for the year with a torn ACL.  Is there anyone out there healthy enough to play running back?  Anyone?  We’ll delve more into the Broncos’ running back quandry next week, but in the meantime, on to the picks. 

Last Week: 8-6 (.571)   Season: 79-50 (.612)

– Patriots over Bills: This should be a great game.  Both teams are coming off close losses, and both are in the midst of a three way tie for the division lead.  The Bills will be fired up after losing two division games in a row, but I pick New England mainly because they always seem to win every time I give up on them.  Bill Belichick has done maybe the best coaching job of his career this season, and the Patriots should have enough in the tank to win this big division game at home.  Trent Edwards has not played well on the road, while Matt Cassel has done more than a serviceable job for the Patriots, especially at Gillette Stadium.  In a close game like this, it will be the quarterback play that will make the difference and I actually give the nod to Cassel in this one.  Keep in mind these teams meet in Buffalo the last week of the season, and that could be for the AFC East title. 

– Dolphins over Seahawks: This definitely has the look of a mismatch.  The Dolphins have to qualify as one of the league’s top surprises with a 4-4 record at the midway point following a 1-15 effort last season.  Miami’s run defense has done a superb job all season, especially last week when they held the Broncos to just 14 yards rushing.  This spells bad news for Seattle, which has to start Seneca Wallace at quarterback for one more week while Matt Hasselbeck recovers from injury.  The Dolphins are believing that they are a contender, while the Seahawks are on their way to what is easily the worst season in the Mike Holmgren era.  Couple that with the fact Miami is at home, and you have what should be an easy Dolphins victory.   This is my eliminator pick this week mainly because the Seahawks have been so atrocious. 

– Jets over Rams: New York is also involved in the three way tie for the AFC East lead, and they should be able to enjoy an easy home win in this one.  The Rams showed life the first few games of the Jim Haslett era, but they have very quickly come back to Earth.  Steven Jackson is benched for the time being because Haslett doesn’t believe he’s giving full effort, and the Rams defense got exposed big time last week in the loss to Arizona.  The Jets have quietly won three of their past four games, including a surprising road win last week in Buffalo.  Even if Brett Favre goes into his throwing gift interceptions mode, the Rams won’t have enough horses to keep up in this one.  If nothing else, the Jets should be able to get a big rushing day from Thomas Jones.

– Ravens over Texans: This game was originally scheduled to be played in week two, but was moved due to Hurricane Ike.  Houston has come back to Earth after a scorching three week period after a loss to Minnesota last week and the injury to quarterback Matt Schaub.  This plays right into Baltimore’s hands: backup QB (Sage Rosenfels) versus the always tough Ravens defense.  Houston still has enough weapons in the passing game that they’ll be able to move the ball some, but the Ravens are quickly proving that they deserve to be in the playoff mix.  Baltimore’s defense is quickly regaining its reputation as one of the league’s best, and that has allowed them to be competitive in every game this season, even on the road.  The Ravens get the road win to keep Pittsburgh within sight in the AFC North.

– Steelers over Colts: There is a question mark for Pittsburgh at quarterback: will it be Ben Roethlisberger or Byron Leftwich?  Either way, the Steelers are in good shape because Willie Parker is back to anchor the running game, and Leftwich really played very well last week in the win over the Redskins.  The Colts gave a gutsy performance in their win over New England last week, but Heinz Field is always a tough place to play, and Peyton Manning and company have yet to give two solid performances in a row this year.  The Steelers defense will not allow the Colts receivers to get separation, nor will they allow a hobbled Joseph Addai to have a big day.  Indianapolis still has more than enough talent to make a run for a playoff spot, but they face too tall of an order in this one.  Pittsburgh gets the home win in one of the better games of the week.

– Jaguars over Lions: I have once again fallen into the trap of the Jacksonville Jaguars, but they can’t possibly fall flat on their faces in this one can they?  Jacksonville is an awful 3-5 after a surprise loss in Cincinnati last week, which means the Jaguars are at the very least a contender for most disappointing team this season.  My preseason AFC Super Bowl pick is really letting me down in more ways than one, but I still believe they are not out of it yet.  David Garrard has actually done a superb job despite the record, but the problem for the Jaguars has been their inability to run the ball.  That should change against a Detroit defense that has been gashed by everyone.  Daunte Culpepper gets the start for the Lions after being signed just last week, so it will be interesting to see how he plays.  I think the Jaguars will find a way to win this one on the road, but I have admit an upset is possible if Culpepper plays well.  If Jacksonville loses this one, it will prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that my preseason predictions are good for nothing but kindling, but at least that would put me in good company.

– Bears over Titans: I smell an upset here, mainly because the Titans have won a ton of close games this season, and odds are that one of them will go the other way at some point.  I do put an asterisk by it in the sense that it is unknown whether Kyle Orton or Rex Grossman will get the start for Chicago.  In either case, the Bears will be extremely fired up for this one at Soldier Field, especially since they have an opportunity to extend their lead in the NFC North.  Tennessee has played great defensively, but Chicago’s defense has also forced a ton of turnovers.  If the Bears can win the turnover battle, which is not farfetched by any means as aggressive as their defense is, they will have an opportunity to give their offense a short field, which could easily make the difference in the game.  In typcial Tennessee fashion, the game will once again come down to the wire, but a hunch says the Soldier Field crowd sways the Bears to their biggest win of the year.

– Panthers over Raiders: This will be one of the blowouts of the week.  Carolina is fresh off a bye, and their offense is really clicking with Jake Delhomme and company putting up points.  Oakland is in shambles (what else is new) after releasing big ticket free agent signee DeAngleo Hall and getting shut out at home last week by Atlanta.  The Panthers have too many weapons for the Raiders to contain, especially now that Hall is gone.  Carolina is in position for a bye right now in the NFC playoff picture, and they know they have to keep winning to maintain it.  If I hadn’t already used the Panthers in my eliminator pool, I would be sure to use them here.  Carolina wins big. 

– Chargers over Chiefs: San Diego is also coming off a bye, and is still very much in play in the AFC West despite a 3-5 record.  Even after Denver’s win over Cleveland last night, the Chargers are just a game and a half back in the division with a very friendly schedule awaiting down the stretch.  San Diego for whatever reason has yet to consistently put anything together, but they have now had the bye week to figure it out.  They do get a Chiefs team that has really shown improvement and signs of life the last two games, but Kansas City has still not been able to win.  The Chiefs may well win another game or two before the season is finished, but it won’t come here.  San Diego wins easily at home to kick off their post-bye schedule.

– Vikings over Packers: I really went back and forth on this one, and in the end you might as well flip a coin.  This is a really intense division rivalry, and both teams have been up and down this season.  Both teams have experienced success offensively in recent weeks, and both have outstanding running games, so this has the potential to be a shootout.  The Packers won the first meeting at Lambeau Field in week one, but that was with Tarvaris Jackson under center for Minnesota.  Gus Frerotte has done an admirable job in the that role for the Vikings, and they have a lot of momentum after a home win against Houston last week.  The Metrodome will be rocking for this one, and that will ultimately prove to be the difference in this one as Minnesota jumps back into the NFC North race.

– Falcons over Saints: This game has the potential to be a shootout too.  New Orleans will be without Reggie Bush for one more week, which means the onus will be on Drew Brees and the passing game to move the ball, which they have been very effective doing all year.  The Saints are also coming off a bye, which has helped them recover from the London trip.  The Falcons have been a tremendous surprise at 5-3, and Matt Ryan is playing not only well for a rookie, but he has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league this season (and a borderline must start in fantasy the way he keeps improving).  Atlanta will have no trouble scoring points at home in the Georgia Dome, and they will pull out a narrow win at home in what should be a very entertaining game.   

– Eagles over Giants: The Sunday night game will be dynamite.  Not only is this one of the most intense rivalries in football, but this game matches two of the top teams in the NFL.  The Eagles are right in the thick of the NFC race even though they’ve battled numerous injuries at virtually every position.  Now that they are starting to get healthy, they are starting to show how good they can be.  The Giants are of course the defending champs and have been very tough on the road, including their win two weeks ago in Pittsburgh.  The Giants have to absolutely be considered at the very least in the top 2 or 3 teams in the league right now, and probably are the top team considering they are the defending champs, but a hunch says Philadelphia will get a tremendous lift from a raucous crowd that is still on cloud nine from the Phillies’ World Series victory.  Philadelphia wins what could out to be one of the best games of the season, not just the week.  Regardless of how this one turns out, both teams will be right in the thick of everything at the end.

– Cardinals over 49ers: It has to be a sign of the apocalypse to see the Arizona Cardinals hosting a Monday night game doesn’t it?  Or is it more of a shock that they have a commanding lead in the NFC West, and should pummel poor San Francisco in this one?  The 49ers have had the bye week to regroup, and they do have one of the league’s top running backs in Frank Gore, but that’s about all they have going for them.  No doubt interim coach Mike Singletary is intense, but no amount of intensity will be able to help the Niners stop Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin from running wild.  Remember when it was a question whether it would be Kurt Warner or Matt Leinart under center for the Cardinals this year?  That seems like ancient history.  The Cardinals with a win would be 6-3 and clearly on track to host a playoff game, no that would have to be a sign of the apocalypse.  Arizona wins this one so easily that viewers will flip away by the third quarter.

BYE: Bengals, Cowboys, Redskins, Buccaneers – these are the last of the byes this season

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I’m Glad I was Wrong

Posted by mizzou1028 on November 7, 2008

I wouldn’t believe it if I didn’t see it with my own eyes.  I honestly didn’t believe the Broncos had much of a chance to win in Cleveland on a short week going into the game, let alone when they trailed 23-10 in the second half, missing ALL of their tailbacks due to injury, struggling to get pressure on Brady Quinn, and reverting to giving up big plays in the running game.  What resulted is one of most exciting games I have ever seen, maybe exciting enough to go in the top five, but for sure in the top ten.  I’m not sure what I’m most excited about.  I could give accolades to Jay Cutler for his 447 yard, three touchdown effort that ranks third in Broncos history.  (Trivia question: can you name the two quarterbacks who posted the highest single game yardage efforts?  Hint: neither one is John Elway.  The answer is at the end).  I could praise Eddie Royal for his 164 yard effort, including a 93 yard TD that completely changed the momentum, that resulted in a Broncos rookie record for reception yards in a game.  I could talk about Brandon Marshall, who stepped big with the clinching touchdown, or Tony Scheffler, who had 92 yards receiving despite playing with a groin so sore he didn’t think he was going to play when conducting his own pregame interview on the Broncos radio network.  There’s also Ryan Torain, who ran hard before injuring his knee in the second quarter, and even Selvin Young, who tried so hard to tough it out when he was literally the last running back standing, even though he himself was nursing a groin injury such that Mike Shanahan was hoping not to have to use him.  Even the much maligned defense stepped up when it mattered, forcing a key fourth quarter fumble and coming up with the fourth down stop to preserve the win at the end.  

Truth is, everyone mentioned played a critical role in this win for the Broncos.  I realize that sounds cliche, but it’s the only way they could have come back and won a game where everything seemed lost.  How many teams do you know that would be even remotely effective offensively when they’re down to their fifth running back?  On that note, let’s not forget about Peyton Hillis, who kept the game alive with a critical conversion on fourth and 1 with the Broncos trailing 30-27 and time rapidly ticking away.  This is type of clutch play the Broncos have been missing the past few weeks.  It is this type of unsung play, which won’t get a lot of notice in the box score, that separates winners from losers.  A key play for sure, one that the Broncos couldn’t have won without, and one that wouldn’t have had a chance to happen at all if not for a real gutsy play much earlier in the game.  

It is amazing in a way that the Broncos were able to keep it together.  They had lost four of their past five, they continued to lose guys to injury, they had no running backs left, they were down by 13 on the road, and they had no momentum against a Browns team that was starting to look like it was getting new life on a lost season.  Even looking at the body language of the players on the sideline, it didn’t look like the Broncos were going to come back.  Somehow, the defense was able to force a punt, a victory in itself for a unit that was missing several of its top players and had struggled to stop the Browns most of the night.  That’s when Jay Cutler proved that he has the gusto to be a great quarterback in the NFL.  The Broncos faced the prospect of starting their drive at their own 7 yard line (Does this evoke memories of The Drive anyone?).  Most teams are scared to take a shot down the field when they’re backed up that deep, but Cutler took the chance.  Despite a dropback that practically took him to his own goal line, he launched a perfect strike down the sideline to Royal, who caught it perfect stride, left a gambling defensive back grasping for air, and was off to the races.  This play changed the momentum so dramatically that the body language on each respective sideline changed.  The Browns players were the ones that had looks of shock of despair, and the Broncos players were rejuvenated, and it showed in their play the rest of the night.  Plays like the 93 yard touchdown pass from Cutler to Royal can define a season, and in this case it may have quite literally saved the Broncos season in more ways than one.

It should be noted that not only did Cutler show a lot of guts to make that throw in that situation and field position, but Mike Shanahan and his staff should be credited for calling that play in that situation.  Maybe they would have run the ball if Torain or Young was healthy enough to do so, and we’ll probably never know for sure, but in any case, Shanahan deserves credit for rolling the dice and dialing deep when most coaches would go the safe route.  There are a lot of Broncos fans calling for Shanahan’s head, mainly because the Broncos have won just one playoff game since John Elway’s retirement.  I have long argued that the Broncos would never have won a Super Bowl in the first place if not for Shanahan, and it is easy to forget that he has won 150 career games, no small achievement.  If Shanahan were to leave the Broncos, odds are your team would be among the first in line to hire him.  It is easy to forget that Shanahan is not the one on the field turning it over or getting beat deep.  I challenge you to tell me another coach that could have kept his team together in a situation like the Broncos had in Cleveland, and of course there are others, but tell me someone out there and available who would be better than Shanahan.  The answer is no one.  

I believe the Broncos saw a very impressive glimpse into their future tonight.  When clicking, the offense is as good as any in the NFL right now, and that’s with most of the key players having three years or less experience in the league.  As they continue to play together and mature together, things will only get better.  Jay Cutler is indeed the real deal, having shown ability to lead his team from behind.  A win like this not only gives a team hope, but it gives them confidence even when things aren’t going well.  Frankly, things didn’t go well tonight for Denver for the most part for three quarters, but when push came to shove, they managed to pull a win out of nowhere.  Now, they have a game and a half lead over San Diego in the AFC West, and suddenly the next game at Atlanta doesn’t appear to be the guaranteed loss it seemed to be 24 hours ago.  (Side note: the NFL Network’s Adam Schefter told us tonight that Champ Bailey will play against Atlanta.  If that’s true, it will be another huge boost for the Broncos).  Suddenly, the Broncos actually winning the AFC West with an actual winning record doesn’t seem so impossible. Sure, the defense could still use some work, but they stepped up when it counted, and all things considered continue to show improvement.  Let’s not forget also the offensive line has only allowed five sacks this year, which is truly amazing especially with a rookie left tackle (Ryan Clady) who has been nothing less than terrific and doesn’t get a lot of press for it.  It’s really amazing how one game can really change your picture on things.  There is still obviously a lot of season left, but one thing is for sure: the Broncos are not left for dead yet, and will be a major player in the AFC race.

Trivia answer: Jake Plummer (499 yards vs. Atlanta in 2004), and Gus Frerrote (462 yards vs. San Diego in 2000).

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Broncos Football on a THURSDAY???

Posted by mizzou1028 on November 6, 2008

I have to admit I can never get used to it when the Broncos, or any other NFL team, plays a Thursday game.  This is the fourth consecutive year the Broncos have drawn a Thursday contest (including two Thanksgiving Day games) and I still can’t get used to it.  I actually applaud the concept of getting more games on television for the fans, although I’m not sure NFL Network counts as a national broadcast at this point due to the fact numerous households still don’t get the channel.  At any rate, the Broncos face a very difficult task for numerous reasons: the short week, the fact they’re coming off a tough loss, the numerous injuries on both sides of the ball, and the travel on such a short timetable (to the eastern time zone to boot, where no pacific or mountain time zone team has won a game this season).  If that’s not enough, they get what is sure to be a raucous crowd at Cleveland Browns Stadium that will be excited for the debut of Brady Quinn.

My pick for the game is coming in a moment, but first a reminder that this is the first of a slate of Thursday NFL games every week for the rest of the season, so remember this if you are in an eliminator pool, have a fantasy lineup that needs to be set before the first kick, or even if you have players that may be involved in the game that you need to make a decision on.  In this space, I will offer a pick for each Thursday game before it kicks off, and then will follow up with the rest of the picks on Friday as normal.  So remember to look for the rest of my picks for week 10 on Friday, along with a recap of the Broncos and Browns.  

This is a very difficult game to pick because both teams are a mess.  The Broncos have no choice but to start Ryan Torain at tailback because no one else is left.  Andre Hall and Michael Pittman were placed on injured reserve this week, and Selvin Young won’t be 100 percent even if he plays.  The coaches do love Torain, but he didn’t look up to speed against Miami.  The Broncos also will likely still be without Tony Scheffler, who will take the extended time before the next game to try and get back in the lineup.  His absence has had a real adverse effect on the passing game.  Meanwhile, Denver’s defense took another hit with the news that leading tackler D.J. Williams will be out at least a month with a torn MCL.  This means no Williams and no Bailey (either of them).  Not to mention, the Broncos are sitting on a league worst minus 11 turnover margin in their past five games.  It can be argued that the Broncos are leading their division, but that carries no weight whatsoever for a team that has lost four of its past five games.  It actually came as a surprise to me to read today that the Broncos are just 20-20 in their past 40 games, and that frankly isn’t acceptable for us in Broncos Country. 

The Browns have finally made the long overdue decision to yank Derek Anderson in favor of Brady Quinn.  This is a move I have advocated for since the offseason, when Cleveland made the surprising decision to offer Anderson a 3 year $24 million contract, even though they had made a big investment in Quinn by making him their first round pick in 2007.  This season Anderson has been anything but great, ranking dead last among starting quarterbacks with a terrible 49.8 completion percentage.  While Anderson has been dreadful at times, Quinn is of course an unknown, having made just one appearance in mop up duty last year.  The timing of the decision to make the move to Quinn with such a short week to prepare also seems a little odd.  The Browns are coming off a loss to Baltimore in which they blew a 27-13 second half lead and watched the Ravens score 20 unanswered points to end the game.  Cleveland’s defense has struggled against the run this year, having given up 154 yards to rookie Ray Rice last week, allowing him to average 7.3 yards a carry.  The Browns’ 3-5 start is not what they were hoping for after knocking on the door to the playoff party last season.

Sometimes when you have two struggling teams going at it, it actually turns out to be a good game, and that could be the case here.  I really hope I’m wrong, but I think this game shapes up to be bad news for the Broncos in more ways than one.  I do think the Broncos will be able to run better than they did against Miami, and I also think Jay Cutler and the passing game will give a better effort.  I think the deciding factor will be the play of Quinn, and if he doesn’t panic in his first start, he will be guaranteed to find Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow open all night with the Broncos missing their top defenders.  Edwards against Dre’ Bly in particular makes me really nervous, with Edwards looking like he’s about to break out for a big game the way his numbers have been climbing the past few weeks.  If the Broncos can rattle Quinn early and maybe even force an early turnover, which they haven’t done all year, then they will be able to stay in the game and maybe even control it.  If they can’t, it will be another long night for the orange and blue.  I really want to pick the Broncos to bounce back, but the rational side of me tells me I can’t.  The short week, the trip east, the missing bodies, the lack of confidence, it will be too much for the Broncos to overcome.

The Pick: Cleveland 27 Denver 17 

I really hope I’m wrong…….

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We’re Still Leading the AFC West HOW?

Posted by mizzou1028 on November 3, 2008

I’m not really sure where to start in explaining the Broncos’ loss to Miami.  For starters it seems easy to point the finger at the officiating crew for wiping out Brandon Marshall’s 77 yard touchdown on an absolutely atrocious offensive pass interference call, but that is not why the Broncos lost this game.  If not that. then on the surface it would seem really easy to point the finger at the defense, which was missing the Bailey brothers and also D.J. Williams to injury later in the game.  After all, the run defense in particular has been atrocious all year, allowing well over 5 yards a carry coming into the game, and the defense has given up a ton of big plays all year.  I am convinced however that this one is not on the defense in any way.  Consider:

– The Broncos were the first team to completely shut down Miami’s “Wildcat” formation, holding the Dolphins to -6 yards on just four plays where they used the trick formation.  (For those unfamiliar, quarterback Chad Pennington lines up as a wide receiver and running back Ronnie Brown takes the direct snap, looking to keep it, hand off to another back, or throw.  The Dolphins destroyed New England and had great success against other teams using the formation).  

– The Broncos allowed Miami to average just 2.6 yards per rush overall and held the Dolphins to just 75 yards for the game, a significant improvement for the Broncos defense.  If you throw out one 30 yard run by Brown, the Broncos held Miami to just 45 yards on their other 28 carries, an average of just 1.6 yards a carry.

– The Dolphins coverted just 4 of 14 third downs against the Broncos

– The Broncos got great pressure on Chad Pennington, recording three sacks and finally getting an interception

– Denver held Miami without an offensive touchdown for the first 57 minutes of the game

Now, was this a perfect effort on defense? Of course not.  But when you consider how many key players the Broncos were missing (especially the league’s top corner, Champ Bailey), their defensive effort is truly to be commended.  This was particularly true in the first half, when the Broncos, as they have done numerous times this year, held Miami to field goals even when they were put in awful position.  

No, this one is squarely on the offense, where there are numerous things to point to here:

– The running game was AWFUL!  If it weren’t for a seven yard scamper by Andre Hall in garbage time on the last drive, the Broncos would have set a franchise record for fewest rushing yards in a game.  They finished with just 14 yards on 12 carries, good for a really lousy 1.2 yards per attempt (7 yards on 11 carries if you eliminate the meaningless carry by Hall), which is one yard better than the team record low set in 1972.  Granted, Miami is 9th in the NFL in run defense, but this effort by the Broncos’ ground game was particularly embarrassing.  It is simply not possible to win in the NFL without some semblance of a running game, it cannot be done.

– Perhaps partially due to the embarrassing lack of a running game, Brandon Marshall was held to just two catches for 27 yards.  This simply can’t happen. I do give Miami a ton of credit for great coverage on him, but Marshall has the size and speed to have an advantage on most corners in the league.  In his defense, Marshall did have the big play wiped out by the bogus penalty, and he did get the ball thrown to him plenty, but he still was a non-factor in the offense.

– Jay Cutler did not have a good day.  Yes, he threw for 307 yards and two touchdowns, but too often he seemed like he was forcing throws.  It never seemed like he was able to look off any of the secondary to divert attention from where he was planning to throw the ball.  He also threw three very costly interceptions, including one the play after the long touchdown to Marshall was called back and another that was returned for a touchdown.  

– The Broncos were guilty of 10 penalties for 81 yards, including two illegal formation calls.  

While the offense has been frustrating in general really for the last five games, it is the turnovers that are the most maddening.  The Broncos are DEAD LAST in the NFL in turnover margin at -11, which goes a long way toward explaining why they’ve lost four of their last five games.  Even though the defense finally got a pick today, all three of Cutler’s picks were extremely costly.  His first one on the third play of the game was a killer that gave Miami immediate momentum, his second was returned for a touchdown, and his third came on the play after Marshall’s lost touchdown when he was clearly trying to force a play out of frustration, and led to a Dolphins field goal.  The three interceptions led to 13 Miami points, and it could have easily have been more if not for a great effort by the defense.  That is why i say the D cannot be blamed for this one.  

Sometimes football is a very simple game: you turn the ball over more than the other team you get beat.  While turnovers don’t always tell the whole story, it’s usually a great place to start if you’re trying to figure out why someone won a particular game.  It shouldn’t come as any surprise for example, that the Tennessee Titans lead the NFL in turnover ratio at +10, and they are the only undefeated team in the league.  As I say it’s not a guarantee that winning the turnover battle will always lead to success (Kansas City is third in the NFL at +7), but more often than that the great teams will at the very least not give the ball away, even if they aren’t taking it away.  Giving the other team extra opportunities is never a good recipe for success in any sport.  The Broncos were excellent in this area in the first three games when they were the talk of the league, and now that they are giving the ball away left and right, it should not come as a shock that it is leading to losses.  

Yes, the Broncos did get screwed when Marshall’s touchdown catch got wiped out because of offensive interference, but bad calls are part of the game.  I don’t think there is any question it was a terrible call, particularly since the flag did not get thrown until after Marshall was off to the races, but the Broncos still had chances to win the game.  If Cutler had not thrown a pick on the next play, the defense would not have been backed to the wall trying to make a stop.  I said after the Broncos benefited from the Ed Hochuli call against San Diego that the Chargers still had a chance to stop them and the Broncos shouldn’t apologize for it.  It goes both ways too, the Dolphins shouldn’t apologize for getting lucky on a bad call.  It is the Broncos who should apologize for not running the ball and for committing turnovers at inopportune times, that is what cost them this game, not a blown call.  

Somehow the Broncos are still in sole possession of first place in the AFC West with a 4-4 record.  They should be thanking their lucky stars they are in a bad division, because that’s the only thing keeping them afloat right now.  If San Diego fails to get it together, will we actually see an under .500 division champion in the AFC West? For numerous reasons I hope not.  Regardless of the division lead, the Broncos need to at least play like they deserve to be in that spot, starting with Thursday’s tough game in Cleveland.

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Week Nine Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on October 31, 2008

Obviously my predictions need to be taken with a grain of salt, since I once again managed to be woefully incorrect on the World Series.  I have to admit I really thought the two day layover in the middle of game five gave the Rays an advantage, but alas, the Phillies got the job done, and deserve all the credit for doing so.  From the looks of the awful TV ratings, it seems as though I was about the only one to watch anyway.  (The ratings numbers can’t have been helped by Saturday’s massive rain delay and accompanying 10 pm. eastern start time, or by the Barack Obama ad running on seemingly every channel opposite the conclusion of game five).  Incidentally, not shockingly to those who know me, my TV was on the game, not on politics.  I realize that’s not a choice people needed to make in most time zones where the game didn’t overlap, but it did where i live in the Mountain time zone.  My viewing choice would have been the same no matter what party was on the infomercial.  Sports just flat trumps politics in my household, that’s the way it works.  We all clear on this?  Excellent!  Now to the picks:

Last Week: 8-5 (.615)  Season: 71-44 (.617)

– Bills over Jets: Last week the Jets barely beat a Kansas City team that they were supposed to destroy.  Frankly, Kansas City had the upset pulled off if not for some ultra conservative play calling by Herm Edwards on the Chiefs’ last possession they had with the lead, which resulted in a three and out, and allowed Brett Favre a chance to drive the Jets for a go ahead touchdown.  The Jets have turned it over more times than their opponents in their past three games, and they’ve somehow managed to win two of them.  That is not a recipe for success if it keeps up for the Jets.  Buffalo meanwhile is coming off a surprising loss to Miami, and knows they must win this one to maintain their division lead with a Patriots showdown looming next weekend.  I expect a big rebound game from Trent Edwards and I expect the Bills defense to force Favre into a couple of turnovers he won’t be able to recover from.  Buffalo gets the win at home.  

– Broncos over Dolphins: I know I seem to always fall into the trap of picking my team to win, but this is one that the Broncos should be able to get regardless of badly they’ve played recently.  They are coming of a much needed bye week, they are getting injured players back (Tony Scheffler, Brandon Stokley, Selvin Young), and the running game will also get the added bonus of Ryan Torain’s much anticipated debut.  If he is still available in your fantasy league, claim him now, because it’s only a matter of time before Torain is the starter.  Torain was the talk of training camp before he got injured, and he should shine in Denver’s system.  In any case, the Broncos offense should be able to get back on track in this game against a Dolphins pass defense that is ranked 25th.  Miami did get the win last week against Buffalo, and should be able to run the ball with Ronnie Brown and the Wildcat formation, but they don’t have enough offense to keep up if Denver is clicking.  The Broncos get a narrow home win.

– Jaguars over Bengals: I simply refuse to give up on Jacksonville.  How this team is 3-4 is absolutely beyond me.  If they can’t win their next two games (this one and the Lions next week), then I suppose there really is no hope for them.  I still think the Jaguars will be a playoff team when everything is said and done, but they need Maurice Jones-Drew to be more dominant, and they need David Garrard to manage the game better.  Jacksonville let a home game slip away against Cleveland, and they know that urgency is starting to settle in with the AFC race so tight.  Going on to road to Cincinnati and all the empty seats that await is not intimidating, and the Jags’ defense shouldn’t have any trouble harassing Ryan Fitzpatrick or shutting down Cincinnati’s less than stellar running game.  The Bengals’ passing game doesn’t have much hope either after Chad Johnson (or Ocho Cinco or whatever) and T.J. Houshmanzadeh have now both disappeared for weeks.  Jacksonville wins in a laugher here.

– Browns over Ravens: This should be a very good, low scoring, defensive game.  Baltimore clobbered the Browns in Baltimore week three, but this is always an emotional game for the Cleveland fans since the old Browns left for Baltimore in 1995.  Cleveland is playing infinitely better since that week three meeting, and gave a very impressive performance in Jacksonville that made me wonder if I wrote them off a little too early after their 0-3 start.  The Ravens have been very impressive too, and would actually be in playoff position if the season ended today.  Joe Flacco had by far his best game as a pro against the Raiders last week, and Willis McGhaee finally looks healthy.  That being said, if Derek Anderson can avoid costly turnovers against the Ravens defense, Cleveland will sneak away with a win in this one.  

– Texans over Vikings: In a mini-upset pick, I think Houston will continue their winning ways in the Metrodome.  The Texans have now won three straight, and their offense has looked more and more impressive each week (I’m still kicking myself for stupidly cutting Matt Schaub in one of my fantasy leagues after week three).  Houston’s passing game will cause all kinds of problems for a Vikings secondary that gave up 48 points to a less than explosive Bears offense before the bye.  Minnesota has had a disappointing start and has certainly failed to meet the preseason hype, and they will be a desperate team playing in front of a raucous home crowd, but I just can’t see how they’ll be able to contain Houston’s offense.  Even a huge day for Adrian Peterson may not be enough to keep up, and on a hunch I say Houston wins a close one at the wire.  

– Packers over Titans: MAJOR UPSET ALERT.  I’ve had a gut feeling on a couple of these this year (Cowboys-Rams being right at the top), and while I have by no means gotten them all right, I have a real gut feeling on this one.  Tennessee has no doubt been the league’s best team with their 7-0 start, and they’re coming off a real emotional Monday night win against the Colts, and that’s why I sense a letdown here.  The Titans have a day less preparation, while the Packers are coming off a bye and will be well rested and healthy.  Green Bay is also two weeks removed from their big win over the Colts, so they won’t have that lingering in the rear view mirror anymore the way it’s still fresh for the Titans.  The key for Green Bay is to avoid turnovers against Tennessee’s stout defense, but I think the Packers will be able to run with Ryan Grant.  If they can, Aaron Rodgers should have an opportunity to make some plays.  Tennessee is built to win a tight, low scoring game, but what if Rodgers has a big day?  Can the Titans offense keep up?  A hunch says Green Bay pulls the upset and knocks off the league’s last unbeaten team.  

– Buccaneers over Chiefs: Needless to say, I am not picking an upset here, although the Chiefs actually did show a surprise pulse last week.  They were actually able to run a little with Jamaal Charles, Tyler Thigpen gave a performance actually resembling an NFL quarterback, and the defense was able to force turnovers.  The problem for Kansas City is that they’re about to face a Tampa Bay team that is hopping mad after they felt they gave one away in Dallas.  The Buccaneers defense has been awesome all year, and Thigpen will find it much harder to move the offense against it than he did against the Jets.  The Buccaneers’ offense has been up and down this year, but it seems like the trend should be up against the Chiefs.  Jeff Garcia is a smart, veteran QB who will not be rattled by the Arrowhead noise, and the Bucs will be able to withstand the early Chiefs’ punch and have enough to pull away for a road win.  

– Falcons over Raiders: Atlanta was needless to say screwed last week in Philly.  Down by six with just over two minutes to go, and receiving a punt, this sequence ensued.  Despite the fact that Adam Jennings clearly didn’t touch the ball, the refs said he did, and gave the ball to Philadelphia.  Brian Westbrook sealed the Eagles’ win with a touchdown run two plays later, and the Falcons were robbed of a chance to potentially take the lead with plenty of time on the clock and roughly 60 yards to go.  Since there was over two minutes on the clock, replay couldn’t be initiated by the booth upstairs, and the Falcons couldn’t challenge because they used their three timeouts to conserve time on defense while the Eagles were trying to get a first down.  This is a ludicrous flaw in the challenge system: should the Falcons have been asked to save a timeout just in case of a blown call?  Of course not.  The challenge system does not take into account blown calls after all challenges have been used.  This is a rant better served for another column, but the point is the Falcons gave a very admirable performance on the road in a hostile road environment, and by all rights may have had the game stolen from them, and I say they will be highly motivated to make a statement against the Raiders.  Oakland looked awful in Baltimore (what else is new?), and it seems like the Raiders should already be trembling of the thought of a very angry, motivated Atlanta team.  Oh, and the Falcons just happen to have more talent.  Atlanta wins in the Black Hole, erasing the memory of a bad loss in Philadephia

– Giants over Cowboys: This NFC East rivalry always bears watching, particularly after New York’s playoff win in Big D last year.  Dallas is still without Tony Romo for one more game (he is expected back Nov. 16 after next week’s bye), so the Cowboys certainly face an uphill battle in the Meadowlands.  Dallas did sneak away with a much needed win against Tampa Bay, and could still find themselves 5-4 after the bye even with a loss here.  Still, the Cowboys are in flux for this one, with Brad Johnson looking over his shoulder at Brooks Bollinger if he has a bad start to the game.  The Giants continue to prove that their title last year was not a fluke, and that everyone who predicted them to miss the playoffs this year (and in many cases finish under .500) seriously missed the boat.  The Giants showed a lot of guts picking up a win in Pittsburgh in a physical game where a lot of teams would have folded up.  This one actually has the look of a blowout if the Giants continue to be able to run the ball effectively and pressure the quarterback they have all year.  The Giants continue to flex their dominance in this one.  Is a Mount TO eruption coming if he has another bad game?

– Eagles over Seahawks: Seattle came out of nowhere and blew out the 49ers last week, although that may not be saying much.  (The Mike Singletary press conference video you’ve surely seen by now says it all about the state of things there).  Given that, we’re not giving Seattle much credit for that one.  Matt Hasselbeck is still out and so are most of his receivers, and that can’t be a good thing for Mike Holmgren’s club over the long haul.  The Eagles showed how their offense is really dangerous when Brian Westbrook is healthy, and that’s another uh oh for Seattle.  Even though the Seahawks are at home, that won’t be much help against the Eagles’ pressure defense, which is sure to have a field day against Seneca Wallace.  Philadelphia is one of the best teams in the league when healthy, and they frankly should have no problem rolling here.  

– Bears over Lions: This is my eliminator pick this week.  Sure, the Lions showed some fight at home against Washington, but they folded like a house of cards when it counted.  Chicago’s offense gave a complete performance against the Vikings before the bye, and the defense has been swarming.  Even though the Bears have given up more points than usual, they’ve made up for it by forcing turnovers at key times and even scoring touchdowns.  This is not good news for Dan Orlovsky, who has not yet shown he can handle pressure well.  Couple that with Detroit’s inability to consistently run the ball, and the Bears defense should be in for a feast.  Chicago is tied for the lead in the NFC North, and they know they need to win this one with a big game against Tennessee coming up.  Chicago should win this one easily.

– Cardinals over Rams: This should be an entertaining game that actually has a lot of subplots.  The former St. Louis Cardinals return to Missouri to play St. Louis’ current team, the Rams.  Dick Vermeil, the coach of the Rams’ 1999 Super Bowl Championship team, is back to be honored in a pregame ceremony.  Kurt Warner, the quarterback of that team, returns as a member of the Cardinals, and is having a great year to boot.  Not to mention, the Rams are slowly showing signs of making a play in the NFC West, where no one has really managed to take control.  The Rams gave great effort in New England last week and if nothing else showed they are not lumped with the dregs of the league.  Arizona is the current leader, and they can extend that with a road win here.  The Cardinals took a tough loss in Carolina last week even though they showed they could play with the Panthers on the road. (West coast teams are still winless when facing an early kick on the east coast this year).  A couple of quick second half turnovers doomed Arizona last week, but their high octane passing game should have a big day indoors on the carpet at the Dome.  The Cardinals continue to surprise with a hard fought win, and a happy homecoming for Warner.  

– Colts over Patriots: Upset alert.  The Sunday night game is one that for the past few years has easily been the league’s showcase game.  These two teams have always battled at the top of the AFC, and had three memorable playoff meetings this decade.  Some luster is taken off this year’s meeting with the absence of Tom Brady and the Colts’ struggles this year.  The Patriots have shown a lot of gusto starting 5-2 without the league’s top quarterback, and came from behind to beat the Rams last week.  As Matt Cassel feels more comfortable, big plays are starting to open up for Randy Moss and Wes Welker.  Indianapolis is coming off two tough losses, but returns home and gets reinforcements.  Top running back Joseph Addai and run stuffing safety Bob Sanders are both expected to be back Sunday night, and that will give the Colts a huge boost in a game they absolutely must win if they want any chance of staying in the AFC race.  The rivalry nature of this game, and the desperation the Colts are surely feeling will be the swing factors as they pull off the upset at home.  One thing is for sure, I know with absolute certainly that Peyton Manning will not allow himself three bad games in a row.  

– Steelers over Redskins: The Monday nighter should be a great one, and it’s not because of the halftime interviews of Barack Obama and John McCain (in fact that should be an excellent time for a bathroom break).  The Steelers lost a tough one to the Giants last week, and will be looking to rebound on a national stage.  Washington is coming off a win over Detroit, but lost Clinton Portis to an ankle injury late in the game.  He still rushed for 125 yards, and says he will be ready to go for the Steelers, but is he 100 percent?  The Redskins have been one of the league’s top surprises at 6-2, and should be fired up for a Monday night game at home, but they haven’t faced a defense as physical as Pittsburgh’s since their week one loss to the Giants.  Pittsburgh will have a fire in their belly as well, and will be able to run the ball with Willie Parker.  If Portis is indeed beat up, the Steelers defense will smell blood in the water and force Jason Campbell to beat them.  Campbell has played well, but a hunch says the Steelers D will be slightly better.  Pittsburgh wins what should prove to be one of the best Monday night games of the year.  I believe the Steelers and Redskins are both playoff caliber teams, and an interconference loss shouldn’t be crippling to either one.  Keep in mind Washington already has all three division road games out of the way, which will really help them down the stretch.

BYE: Chargers, Panthers, Saints, 49ers

NOTE: Those of you need to submit picks and/or fantasy lineups before first kickoff, keep in mind that starting NEXT WEEK NOV. 6 the Thursday night games begin.  Make sure any picks and lineups are turned in accordingly.

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Baseball Chaos?

Posted by mizzou1028 on October 29, 2008

As game five of the World Series gets set to resume tonight, I am definitely intrigued.  Never before have we seen a World Series game get suspended due to rain.  I think I am one of the few out there that doesn’t blame Bud Selig for starting the game as scheduled Monday night.  The rain hadn’t come yet when the first pitch was thrown, and the forecast didn’t indicate that there would be enough precipitation to cause the playing conditions to go astray so quickly.  When the rain did come, everyone tried to make the best of a bad situation for awhile, until it got to the point where play couldn’t continue.  I don’t think anyone would say it’s ideal to have a two day gap between the top and bottom halves of the sixth inning, but it is far preferable to the alternatives: handing the Phillies the title after a shortened five inning win, starting the game over, or forcing the action through unplayable conditions. 

I am intrigued to see the three and a half inning shootout of sorts tonight.  It will be a sprint to the finish so to speak, with each team going to the bullpen right away.  Philadelphia gets the “advantage” so to speak of getting three extra outs to play with, since the game will resume in the bottom of the sixth.  It will be interesting to see if the Rays keep the momentum they gained by tying the game in the top of the sixth two days ago.  It will be interesting to see if the Phillies get the same lift from their home crowd the way they have this entire series.  It is needless to say highly unusual to see a game “started” with a pinch hitter, as will be the case tonight for the Phillies, unless they wish to have Cole Hamels bat and give the Rays a free out.  It is also interesting to note that the Rays figure to have all the momentum if they can sneak away with a win, with the final two games of the series awaiting back in front of their fans at Tropicana Field.

It is interesting to note that before a very recent rule change, the Phillies would have been awarded the win even after the Rays had tied the score in the sixth inning.  I think Bud Selig seems to get a bad rap a lot of the time, for he is really being roasted here for allowing the game to start at all, and for allowing the game to be played in such conditions.  Selig certainly has had his dubious moments, but this is not one of them.  I applaud the decision to both start the game as scheduled, and the decision to stop it when they did.  Sure, a two day delay isn’t ideal, but it’s much better than seeing the champion decided by weather. 

For the record, my prediction still stands: the Rays will come back and win tonight, and they will win this series in seven.  The Phillies will feel the pressure tonight, and would not be able to recover from a loss tonight, facing the task of winning back in the Dome.

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Week Eight Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on October 24, 2008

Much needed bye week for my Broncos, who will need it to get everyone healthy they can.  I’ve run out of things to say after the embarrassment in New England, so let’s get right to the picks.  

Last Week: 10-4 (.714)  Season: 63-39 (.617)

– Bills over Dolphins: Buffalo showed it is for real with a huge win last week against San Diego.  Trent Edwards has done a solid job managing the game for the Bills, and their young players really seem to play well together.  The Bills already have a road win over Jacksonville on their resume in addition to the win over the Chargers thanks also to their outstanding defense.  They shouldn’t have much trouble containing Miami’s offense on the road, even though the Dolphins have shown they can score at times this year.  Chad Pennington has had trouble against aggressive defenses and Buffalo is certainly in that category.  Miami will keep it close for awhile but the Bills will ultimately win this one.  

– Patriots over Rams: Who are the real Patriots?  Are they the team that destroyed Denver, or the one that imploded against San Diego?  The real answer probably lies somewhere in the middle, which means that in typical New England fashion they will probably find a way to make the playoffs.  It is interesting to note that Matt Cassel is starting his career in similar fashion to the way Tom Brady started his.  Brady took over early in the 2001 season for an injured Drew Bledsoe and struggled early in the year before rounding into form about midway through.   Cassel turned in his best performance by far last week against the Broncos, and faces a favorable matchup this week as well.   The Rams have won two in a row, and are clearly a different team with Jim Haslett running things, but going on the road and winning in one of the league’s toughest venues is too much to ask for them.  Patriots win easily.  

– Jets over Chiefs: This might have to go down as the most sure fire pick in NFL history.  The line on this game is 13, and I’m frankly shocked it isn’t much higher.  I’m so shocked in fact, that I’m downright giddy that I picked this weekend to go to Vegas, which means I can make easy money on this game.  The Chiefs will start Tyler Thigpen at quarterback, which is bad news for KC automatically because he can’t play worth a lick.  Larry Johnson has had his team ordered suspension extended another game, which means the Chiefs will also have no running game to speak of.  The Chiefs’ defense has also been horrible, or didn’t you see the Titans rush for 332 yards at Arrowhead last week?  (Check out the hole on LenDale White’s 80 yard touchdown run, looking at that you’d be nuts not to start every Jet you have in fantasy this week, especially Thomas Jones).  Throw in the fact that the Jets are hopping mad they gave one away at Oakland last week, and you have a guaranteed Jets blowout.  Needless to say this is my selection in second chance eliminator pool this week.

– Ravens over Raiders: Baltimore’s defense returned to form last week in Miami, where they completely shut down Miami’s trick formations, and even scored a touchdown, which had always been their trademark.  The Raiders snuck away with a win last week thanks to the Jets’ inability to capitalize, but they’re going to find it absolutely impossible to move the ball in any way against Baltimore.  The Raiders can’t run the ball consistently and JaMarcus Russell will have trouble finding throwing lanes against Baltimore’s ballhawking secondary.  The Ravens have been stellar at home this year, with the only loss coming at the end against undefeated Tennessee.  Willis McGahee is finally healthy, which means the Ravens will have no trouble running the ball effectively.  This will be trademark Baltimore Ravens game, where they win with running and defense.  Ravens by at least two touchdowns in this one.  

– Texans over Bengals: Houston has won two in a row, and they’re in the midst of a stretch where five of six games are at Reliant Stadium.  Matt Schaub had a field day against Detroit last week, and that will continue against a Bengals defense that hasn’t come close to stopping anyone.  Andre Johnson is continuing to emerge as one of the league’s top receiving threats and the Texans have also found a running game with Steve Slaton.  Cincinnati kept it close for three quarters against Pittsburgh last week, but they wore down big time at the end.  The Bengals defense is on the field way too much because the offense can’t move the ball with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center.  You do have to figure the Bengals have too much talent not to get a win at some point this season, but I would be highly surprised if it came here.  The Texans keep it rolling at home.  

– Jaguars over Browns: Jacksonville is fresh off a bye week, and that is bad news for the Browns.  The Jaguars in many ways are fortunate to be 3-3, but they are now entering the easier part of their schedule and are primed to make a move.  Jacksonville rediscovered its running game against the Broncos before the bye with Maurice Jones-Drew finally breaking out for a big day (to be fair that could be more Denver’s defense).  The Browns surrendered over 200 yards on the ground to Washington last week, so the Jaguars should have a big day on the ground as well.  Derek Anderson reverted to form in a bad way against the Redskins, completing just 14 of 37 passes for 136 yards.  That does not bode well for Cleveland against Jacksonville’s excellent defense.  Is the Brady Quinn watch back on?  It might be if Anderson has another bad day.  Jacksonville should win this one fairly easily.

– Steelers over Giants: This is quite possibly the game of the year to this point, let alone the game of the week.  I went back and forth on this so much I’ve been wondering if I could get away with picking a tie.  Of course that would be the ultimate copout, so I went with the home team because the Steelers always rise to the occasion for a big game at Heinz Field.  The Giants are an outstanding road team which doesn’t really make that a cinch, but they did implode in Cleveland two weeks ago and slogged their way to an ugly win last week against San Francisco.  Eli Manning is arguably playing better than his brother Peyton this year, so that has really helped the Giants, but Pittsburgh is getting great play from seemingly anyone in the lineup.  Last week Mewelde Moore stepped in for Willie Parker and ran down Cincinnati’s throat (of course it was the Bengals).  This will be a fantastic game that should go down to the wire, but again the home field edge will make the difference for Pittsburgh.  Incidentally, did you see the phenomenal block by Hines Ward on Cincinnati’s Keith Rivers?  Every receiver in the league should be required to watch that video to see how they should block in the running game, as well as to learn there is more to playing wide receiver than catching the ball.  Obviously it’s unfortunate that Rivers got injured on the play, and for the record we never advocate injury here, but it is still an example of why Hines Ward is one of the great teammates in the league, willing to sell out even when he isn’t the focal point of the play.  

– Chargers over Saints: This game will be played in London, which is ridiculous from the Saints’ perspective because they are giving up the home game, even after they had their entire home slate wiped out in 2005 due to Hurricane Katrina.  This puts the Saints at a disadvantage in so many ways, not the least of which is that their division rivals get an extra home game, plus don’t have to deal with a midseason overseas trip.  What’s worse for the Saints is they will be without Reggie Bush, who had arthroscopic surgery on his knee and will miss 2-4 weeks.  New Orleans did get Marques Colston back last week, but he was ineffective and was held without a catch.  San Diego also has its own issues after the loss to Buffalo, and they are still trying to get LaDainian Tomlinson on track.  The fact that the Chargers went straight to London from Buffalo also puts them at a travel disadvantage along with the Saints.  All things considered, this is not looking at all like the showcase game the league hoped it would be when they picked it for the London matchup.  Oh, and both teams are extremely desperate for a win to stay in their respective races.  A hunch says San Diego gets it together and wins a close one.

– Cowboys over Buccaneeers: I’m having a hard time jumping off the Cowboys bandwagon completely for several reasons, not the least of which is that I picked them to win the Super Bowl.  That being said, Dallas is clearly dysfunctional, as proven by their loss to the Rams (which I correctly predicted, but we don’t generally brag here).  Brad Johnson will start at quarterback, but the fact that the entire team has actually been aware of it all week may help.  I really thought the Tony Romo will he or won’t he play situation last week was a real distraction for the team.  It will still be interesting to see how Roy Williams fits into the offense or if T.O. can get back on track after four subpar games in a row.  The Buccanneers are playing extremely well, and their defense will certainly pose a difficult challenge for Dallas, and the Bucs’ offense has been better with Jeff Garcia.  All that being said, Dallas knows their entire season may well hinge on this game, with road games against the Giants and Redskins looming.  One would think that type of desperation should be enough to give Dallas a jolt needed to get a much needed home win, unless of course the soap opera season is already beyond saving.    

– Eagles over Falcons: Philadelphia is coming off a much needed bye, which allowed them to get Brian Westbrook and others healthy.  They’ll need Westbrook against a Falcons team that is arguably the league’s biggest surprise at 4-2.  Matt Ryan is playing as well as any rookie quarterback has in recent memory, and the Falcons are starting to believe they can win, even getting a road win at Lambeau Field in week five.  This will certainly be a more difficult road test though with the notoriously hostile Philly fans, especially against an Eagles offense that has its full complement of players for the first time in awhile.  Philadelphia is already looking up at the Giants and Redskins, plus they may have an opportunity to distance themselves from the Cowboys.  Home cooking and the return of Westbrook lifts the Eagles to the win, but it wouldn’t be surprising if this game is competitive into the fourth quarter.  

– Redskins over Lions: Washington snuck away with one last week against the Browns, benefiting from a late missed field goal by Cleveland.  Still, the Redskins are looking like a playoff team again this year, particularly with Clinton Portis running wild.  Jason Campbell has shown so far that he has been able to make good decisions for the most part.  Detroit meanwhile actually showed some spunk last week, nearly erasing a 28-0 deficit to Houston and making things interesting at the end.  I believe the Redskins will ultimately win, but something does smell fishy here.  The Lions are due for a good performance at home, where they have not played well this year.  Washington is in a potential trap situation with a Monday night game against Pittsburgh on the horizon, followed by a string of big division games.  I say Washington will win, but an upset is not out of the question here.

– Panthers over Cardinals: This is a very intriguing game.  Carolina looked like their old selves last week as they rolled over the Saints, while Arizona is coming off a bye following a dramatic win over Dallas.  Jake Delhomme had one of his best games last week, and the entire offense looks like it is benefiting big time from the return of Mushin Muhammad, who returned after three years with the Bears.  The Carolina running game also has nice balance with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.  The Cardinals have also been very stellar offensively, with Kurt Warner having a huge year so far.  The Cardinals also benefit from the return of star receiver Anquan Boldin, who missed several games after getting his bell rung in week four against the Jets.  Still, Carolina is extremely difficult to beat at home, and Arizona hasn’t really proven they can win away from the desert yet.  The Panthers will win a relatively close one here.

– 49ers over Seahawks: San Francisco is the latest team to see if a midseason coaching change will work, having axed Mike Nolan after the Giants loss.  Mike Singletary takes over the coaching duties, and he should bring some intensity to the defensive side of the ball, having been one of the best linebackers in the league himself with the Bears in the 80s.  J.T. O’Sullivan may be on a short leash at QB, so he’ll need a big game heading into the bye week, but he should be able to get it against a Seahawks team that is barely a step above terrible.  Frank Gore should be a guarantee for a huge day, especially with a large chip on his shoulder after being held to 11 yards last week.  The Seahawks are decimated with injuries to be fair, but they don’t seem be playing with any intensity, and they seem to be really overmatched against most teams.  Keep in mind the Niners have already won in Seattle, and are going for a season sweep.  San Francisco wins.

– Titans over Colts: This should be a good Monday nighter.  It will be my first chance to actually sit down and watch Tennessee, since their games are never shown in my area.  The Titans defense has been among the best in the league this year, and means bad news for a Colts offense that really struggled last week in Green Bay.  Indianapolis will once again be without Joseph Addai, which will make it difficult if not impossible to run on Albert Haynesworth and company.  I do expect a better game from Peyton Manning than last week, for he has always had decent games against the Titans, even on the road.  Still, there is nothing the Colts seem to be able to do about their inability to stop the run, which is bad news when you’re facing Chris Johnson and LenDale White.  The Titans will also get a huge lift from what is sure to be a raucous crowd, and that will be one of the sway factors for the Titans.  If there is an early Colts turnover, they could even easily end up at the wrong end of another blowout.  Tennessee gets the win, and with it practically buries the Colts already in the AFC South.

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World Series Pick

Posted by mizzou1028 on October 22, 2008

I’ve said all along from day one that I would be first to be up front about erroneous predictions on my part.  It only seems fair if I’m going to call out others for being wrong.  In light of that, let’s look back at my baseball playoff picks.  Let’s just say that i only got one series right out of seven.  In an effort to save face, I offer a revised World Series prediction below. 

ALDS: Angels over Red Sox in five: The Angels were the best team in baseball during the regular season, and had everything clinched several weeks before the end of the season.  The Red Sox are not healthy. 

The Red Sox bats ended up booming in this series and proved to be the difference.  The Angels had chances, but couldn’t get the timely hit.  A rare blown save by K-Rod in game two didn’t help matters either.   

Rays over White Sox in four: Chicago has momentum, but they will have a letdown at Tropicana Field.  Tampa Bay’s surprise story continues, thanks in part to Carl Crawford’s return.

This is the only series I got right.  Tampa Bay’s young lineup was able to get the job done in this series (particularly Evan Longoria). 

NLDS: Brewers over Phillies in five: C.C. Sabathia is the difference for Milwaukee as the Brewers bats outslug Philly in a high scoring series.

Sabathia got shelled in game two and was essentially a non-factor.  Philadelphia clearly had the better offense in this series. 

Cubs over Dodgers in four: The Dodgers benefited from the Manny Ramirez trade, but the Cubs have the pitching and the emotion of Wrigley in the first two games.

Turns out the “emotion” of Wrigley was of a different variety.  Did the Cubs feel the pressure of the Curse?  We may never know, but the Cubs imploded at the wrong time, while LA was red hot. 

ALCS: Angels over Rays in seven: The Angels are deep, have a solid lineup, a terrific rotation, and a shut down bullpen.  Their experience is the difference against the young Rays.

The series between the Rays and Red Sox proved to be terrific.  As it turned out, Boston’s experience was not enough to overcome the young Rays.  Tampa showed a lot of gusto rebounding from their game five debacle. 

NLCS: Cubs over Brewers in six: The Cubs owned the Brewers during the regular season, and that continues in the playoffs.’

Philadelphia continued to amaze in the NLCS, beating the Dodgers even though Manny Ramirez hit over .500 in the series.  The Phillies proved that their offense can get the big hit even against a bullpen as good as LA’s. 

World Series: Cubs over Angels in seven: This would be one the best World Series matchups in a number of years.  The Cubs get it done because a 100 year drought seems long enough, and why not end it on a nice round number?

So maybe Phillies-Rays isn’t as sexy as a Cubs-Angels World Series would have been, but it will still be a very entertaining series.  Both teams can swing the bat, the Phillies featuring Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley, and the Rays sporting the young guns of Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton.  Both teams stack up well with their rotation, the Phillies sporting Cole Hamels and Brett Myers, while the Rays can counter with Scott Kazmir and James Shields.  Philadelphia appears to have a slight edge in the bullpen with closer Brad Lidge, but the Rays may have found an answer for that role in David Price, who got the final four outs of the ALCS game seven against Boston.  Tampa Bay has home field advantage thanks to the American League winning the All-Star Game, and the Rays have been very tough to beat at Tropicana Field all year.  The Phillies have also been successful at home this year, and should have a raucous atmosphere for their home games, but the extra game at the Trop will ultimately be the sway factor for the Rays as they complete arguably the most surprising season in MLB history, completing their worst to first turnaround.   Keep in mind also, the Phillies have been off for a full week while the Rays just wrapped up the ALCS on Sunday.  As the Rockies proved last year, the time off isn’t always a good thing. 

The Pick: Rays in seven.

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More Bad News in Broncoland

Posted by mizzou1028 on October 22, 2008

The Broncos defense has obviously struggled this season, and their struggles will certainly continue with the news that Champ Bailey could be out at least a month with a torn groin.  Bailey is nothing short of the best cornerback in the game, and even though he has only one pick so far this season, keep in mind that teams refuse to throw at him because he’s so good.  Case in point, Bailey completely shut down Randy Moss for a quarter and a half last night, but as soon as Champ left the game, the Patriots were able to get Moss the ball and he was able to score two touchdowns.  Make so mistake about it, the Broncos’ biggest defensive weakness may still be an inability to stop the run, but Bailey’s absence will not do anyone on that side of the ball any favors.  

The Broncos really find themselves at a crossroads in more ways than one during this bye week.  Yes, they will get their injured players back on offense, including tailback Ryan Torain, who is expected to make a big impact after he dominated camp.  That being said, the Broncos will not be able to replace Bailey in the secondary easily, if at all.  If we’re going off a 4-6 week timeline, Bailey will at minimum not return until Nov. 23 against the Raiders, and could well be out until Dec. 7 against the Chiefs and maybe even beyond.  The Broncos in many ways find themselves fortunate they aren’t going against many of the top passing attacks in the league during that stretch, but defending Braylon Edwards in Cleveland week 10 is a big concern now, as is facing the Falcons and their surprising rookie quarterback Matt Ryan in the Georgia Dome the next week.  Injuries are definitely part of the game, but the Broncos are now facing a challenge in the coming weeks that they weren’t counting on in any way.  None of this seemed possible when the Broncos raced out to a 3-0 start, but now Denver has lost three of its past four games and the prevailing feeling within the organization and the fan base is disappointment, not of excitement for what lies beyond.  One thing is for sure, if the Broncos do manage to return to the playoffs this year, they will have definitely earned it.

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Can This Even Be Fixed?

Posted by mizzou1028 on October 21, 2008

I can sit here and look at the standings after week seven and say that the Broncos are 4-3, that they are still in first place in the AFC West, and they would be in easy playoff position if the season ended right now.  That seems impossible right now after the trouncing they got tonight at the hands of the Patriots of all teams.  Did the Broncos really allow Sammy Morris to rush for 100 yards IN THE FIRST QUARTER?  The same Sammy Morris who had ran for a high of 63 yards (and just 169 all season) in a game all year?  The same Sammy Morris who averaged 3.2 yards a carry coming into tonight’s game and saw it balloon to a beyond ghastly 8.6 yards a carry against Denver?  Heck, even BenJarvus Green-Ellis (yes that is a real player), who I had literally never heard of before tonight, rushed for 65 yards on 13 carries, to the tune of five yards a carry. Was this the same Patriots running game that managed just 106 yards as a team the week before against San Diego?  The answer for the Broncos is unfortunately yes (More on the awful Broncos run defense below).  

To watch the Broncos the last month makes you scratch your head and wonder how they’re in first place.  Tonight they committed FIVE turnovers to New England’s zero.  I don’t care if you’re the ’72 Dolphins going against North Dakota Tech, if you turn it over five times on the road, including your first two possessions, your odds of winning are never good.  Say what you will, but the Broncos were moving the ball great on their first possession until Andre Hall fumbled.  If they score on that drive to take a 7-0 lead instead of turning it over, the entire game would have likely unfolded very differently.  But Hall’s fumble sucked the air out of the Broncos’ offense, and if that one didn’t his second one on the next position definitely did.  Of all the stats in sports, and a lot of them are certainly without much value in relation to the final score, the one stat that almost always translates into wins and losses, regardless of sport, is turnovers.  It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that the Broncos have lost the turnover battle handily in each of their three losses this year, and losing it 5-0 to the Patriots explains away much of the blowout loss right there.  

While the turnovers are obviously a huge factor in the Broncos’ recent struggles, the complete lack of a run defense this year is almost more alarming.  This season the Broncos have already allowed:

– 97 yards rushing to the Raiders’ Justin Fargas in week one, easily a season high for the Raiders back that is rapidly losing playing time to Darren McFadden and has seen his yards per carry decline dramatically each week.  Fargas’ 42 yard run against Denver is by far his longest of the season.  

– 53 yards on just seven carries to San Diego’s Darren Sproles in week two (in addition to a 66 yard touchdown on a screen pass that essentially amounted to a run).  Sproles has made at best cameo appearances for the Chargers since then (140 total rushing yards on the season), and in his last game against the Bills had just one yard rushing and five yards receiving.  

– 198 yards (to the tune of 7.1 yards per carry) to the Chiefs’ Larry Johnson in week four (including a 65 yard run on the game’s second play).  Johnson has been noticeably absent in KC since then, rushing for two yards on seven carries at Carolina and then getting himself suspended by the Chiefs for his off the field activity.  

– 125 yards to Maurice Jones-Drew in week six, including a back breaking 46 yard TD run to break the game open.  This came after he was held to just 7 yards the week before against Pittsburgh, and had been held to 32 or less in three other games.  Not to mention that Jones-Drew’s performance against the Broncos came behind a banged up offensive line that featured two backups.  

– The aforementioned monster game (well, half) from Sammy Morris, who finished with 138 yards despite only playing the first half.  Morris’ previous season high was 63 yards for an entire game, which he easily eclipsed against Denver in the first quarter alone.  Morris had been held to 26 yards on 10 carries the week before against San Diego, and he only needed 16 carries to destroy the Broncos.  Morris actually had three games of 27 yards rushing or less coming into the Denver game (including week two at the Jets where he had ZERO yards on 8 carries).

Right now I am absolutely petrified of the remaining backs on Denver’s schedule: Ronnie Brown, Jamal Lewis, Michael Turner, Darren McFadden (as faster and better version of teammate Fargas), Thomas Jones, Larry Johnson again (assuming he isn’t still suspended), the DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart combo in Carolina, Marshawn Lynch, and LaDainian Tomlinson (and probably Sproles) in the final game.  The point here is the Broncos have allowed more rushing yards (1,082) than any team except Kansas City, and they are allowing opponents to average 5.4 yards per carry.  That is simply not acceptable.  In order to even have a chance to be a good defense in the National Football League, you must be able to stop the run.  If you can’t, anything else you might have going for you on that side of the ball is completely irrelevant.  Case in point: the Broncos actually sacked Matt Cassel six times tonight, but did it really do them any good?  It doesn’t matter if you can rush the passer or if you have great corners if you are not able to stop the run.  It is easy to complain for example that the Broncos only have two interceptions for the season, but that number is partially a result of the team’s failure to stop the run.  Why would any offensive coordinator throw in Champ Bailey’s direction when he knows he can chew up yards the easy way on the ground?  Overall, the Broncos are 30th in the league in total yards per game (ahead of only the Chiefs and Lions), allowing close to 400 yards per contest.  Do those look like the numbers of a contending team?  Frankly they look like the numbers of a last place team.  Heck, even the horrible Cincinnati Bengals are better than Denver in both total defense (331 yards per game) and run defense (allowing 4.4 yards per carry – a full yard less than Denver).

If the Broncos want to go back to the playoffs this year, it is imperative that they shore up their porous run defense.  If that doesn’t improve, the Broncos’ second half prospects look very gloomy indeed.  Yes, they currently sit 4-3 and are in the AFC West lead, but there is no way that will last with a run defense this bad.  Even though the offense is not blameless in relation to their turnovers, they can’t be expected to score 40 points every week to win a game even if they hang onto the ball.  Then again, the offense surely has to feel the pressure to carry the team the way the defense has performed this season.  The bye is coming at a good time for the Broncos, and perhaps they can use it to regroup.  Despite all this, as mediocre as the AFC West is this year, I still think they can overtake San Diego for the division title.  This team still has talent and potential, and if the NFL has taught us anything, it’s that things do change week to week.  This can be fixed, even if it won’t be easy, and even if it seems impossible after the embarrassment in Foxboro.  One thing to keep in mind as a final thought: Mike Shanahan has never missed the playoffs three straight seasons in his career, and that is enough to keep me optimistic about the remainder of the season.

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