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Posts Tagged ‘National Football League’

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One More Post-Holliday Trade Note

Posted by mizzou1028 on November 17, 2008

I’ll let Jim Armstrong, the great sports columnist from The Denver Post, make the point.  You can read his latest thoughts on the Holliday trade, and specifically why such a lopsided deal wouldn’t happen in the NFL here.

I completely agree with everything he says.  MLB really needs to adopt the NFL model, except the players (and especially the union and their agents) are too greedy.  The sad thing is the way the NFL labor contract currently reads, the 2010 season would be played without a salary cap, and the players say they will not go back to one if they play a season with an uncapped year.  It seems in any case from what I’ve heard that the NFL is on its way to labor strife after the 2010 season (or after two more seasons following the conclusion of this one).  It’s a ways off yes, but it would be a shame if the NFL and its players allowed the best business model in sports to go poof.

Posted in baseball, football | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Jets-Patriots Recap plus Week Eleven Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on November 14, 2008

Well, for the second straight week I was incorrect on the Thursday night game.  Needless to say, I did not expect the Jets to jump out the way they did on the road.  Leon Washington’s kickoff return was clearly a momentum changer early, and the Jets offense was really clicking in the first half.  Give the Patriots a lot of credit for battling back from a 24-6 deficit and giving themselves a chance to win, even if they were unable to pull it out.  I really thought New England made the right call going for it on 4th down twice at the end of the first half, even though one of them was unsuccessful, because kicking a field goal when you’re down 24-6 does not help you.  The Patriots ended up scoring a critical touchdown before halftime that gave them a much needed boost for the second half.  Had they kicked the field goal to cut it to 24-9, odds are the second half would have turned out to be much easier for the Jets.

The last 20 minutes of the game (including the overtime) was simply a display of terrific football.  After the Patriots tied it at 24, the Jets chewed up more than seven minutes off the clock with a short passing game and a sense of purpose.  Brett Favre made the throws you would expect of a sure fire Hall of Famer, and when Thomas Jones capped it off with a touchdown to put the Jets up 31-24, you got the sense the game was still not over.  Even when the Jets got the ball back with just over two minutes to go, New England knew they could get the ball back with a stop.  Sure enough the Patriots got it back with 1:15 on the clock, and Matt Cassel evoked memories of Tom Brady, chewing up the Jets prevent defense with short passes to Wes Welker, and managing the clock beautifully.  His throw on the run to Randy Moss for the tying touchdown with one second left was phenomenal, and Moss did a great job hauling it in even with Ty Law draped all over him.  New England appeared to have all the momentum heading into overtime, even after the Jets won the coin flip.  

They did until Brett Favre answered Cassel in the overtime, escaping what looked like a sure sack to convert a key 3rd & 14 to keep the drive alive deep in his own territory.  Favre then made precision throw after precision throw, mixed in with hard running by Jones, and the Jets won it on a Jay Feely field goal 34-31.  It is unfortunate that New England never saw the ball in overtime, but their defense was unable to come up with a stop when needed.  I am one that does not think the overtime rule needs to be changed, even though a lot of times the team that wins the toss marches right down for a field goal.  New England had several chances to come up with a stop, and beyond that, Bill Belichick elected to go the safe route and kick the extra point and send the game to OT with one second left, rather than going for two and the win.  Clearly, that is a judgement call that does not necessarily have a right answer, as teams going for two in that situation are one for two this season.  I am one though where I would seriously think about going for two there if there is a chance my offense may not see the ball in OT.  Regardless of that, the Jets were able to pull the road upset in a very entertaining game and take control of first place in the AFC East.  That is exactly why the Jets signed Favre, for that kind of performance.  The Patriots will not go away quietly, but New York is in the driver’s seat for the time being.  If all of these Thursday games are bound to be this exciting, perhaps the Bengals may have hope next week in Pittsburgh?  I still say not likely.  At any rate, on to the picks, keeping in mind I’m already 0-1 this week:

 

Last Week: 10-4 (.714) Season: 89-54 (.622)

– Dolphins over Raiders: This has complete mismatch written all over it.  Miami has very quietly won three in a row, and can actually vault into second place in the AFC East with a win.  Miami is getting a fantastic year out of Joey Porter, and he has really energized the defense.  The Dolphins are also getting great running out of Ronnie Brown and (surprise!) Ricky Williams.  The Raiders are a complete joke in every way, especially when they’ve played on the road this year.  Even in a game where they forced Jake Delhomme into four picks last week, they still managed to score just six points.  Oakland will not be able to move the ball in this game, and Chad Pennington will not get rattled in the pocket.  The Dolphins have enough offense to win their fourth straight, setting up a showdown with New England next week.

– Eagles over Bengals: Philadelphia knows they must win this game to even be in the mix in the NFC East, especially since they have tough games with Baltimore and Arizona coming up after this one.  The Eagles had chances to win last week against the Giants despite getting dominated in time of possession, and have way too much talent to be stuck at 5-4.  Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook are actually healthy, and spells bad news for Cincinnati’s defense in this one.  The Bengals are coming off their first win of the year, and have showed signs of life at times this year, but they will not be able to keep up in this one.  Ryan Fitzpatrick under center against Jim Johnson’s ballhawking Eagles defense is not a good combination.  The lack of interest in ticket sales in Cincinnati also means there will be lots of green in the stands at Paul Brown Stadium.  Philadelphia survives an early punch and then pulls away late.

– Giants over Ravens: This will be a great game.  The Giants keep proving doubters wrong who picked them to falter after winning the Super Bowl last year, having won yet another tough road game last week in Philadelphia.  The Giants have great balance on offense with Brandon Jacobs and Eli Manning is playing at least as good as his older brother.  The defense has also been effective despite losing both defensive ends from last year’s team.  Baltimore continues to surprise at 6-3, having blown out the Texans not only with their usual tough defense, but now the Ravens have an offense to go with it.  Now that Willis McGahee is healthy again, the Ravens offense can cause problems for opponents in addition to the defense.  I expect a tough physical game from both teams that will probably come down to turnovers.  I take the Giants at home, but if the game were in Baltimore I would be really tempted to go the other way.  Still, the Giants are the defending champs and they will prove why by pulling this one out.

– Steelers over Chargers: Both teams are extremely desperate for a win.  The object the Steelers see in their rear view mirror that is the Ravens keeps getting closer and closer, and Pittsburgh wants to get that winning feeling back after losing two of their last three, both at home.  Ben Roethlisberger will start again for the Steelers and they will need him to take care of the ball.  Willie Parker really will be back this time, and that will help the Steelers offense tremendously.  San Diego has way too much talent to be 4-5, but it does seem very clear that they do miss Shawne Merriman more than anticipated on defense.  The Chargers know they can sill win the AFC West with Denver hobbling, and we keep waiting for the light bulb to go on.  Still, the Chargers barely beat Kansas City this week, and we know the track record of west coast teams heading east.  Pittsburgh wins a close one.  

– Colts over Texans: Houston’s best chance of beating the Colts came in September, when the Texans blew a 27-10 lead with under five minutes to play.  After Indianapolis made that comeback, and factoring the trouncing the Texans took against Baltimore last week, and there is no way Houston has any mojo heading into this game.  The Colts meanwhile have been red hot, earning back to back wins against the Patriots and Steelers.  Reggie Wayne has certainly picked up the slack for a struggling Marvin Harrison, and Peyton Manning is finally starting to look like his old self again.  Suddenly, Indianapolis has a very friendly schedule down the stretch, and the Colts look like playoff material.  Factor in that the Texans are still stuck with Sage Rosenfels, he of two fumbles in three minutes against the Colts last meeting, and there is no way the Colts don’t roll in front of the home fans.  

– Jaguars over Titans: I know, I know, I keep picking against Tennessee and they keep winning.  I keep waiting for the thank you card from Jeff Fisher any day now thanking me for continuing to pick against them.  This pick has less to do with Tennessee and more to do with Jacksonville, who finally got the running game going last week.  Okay, so it was against the Lions, but if the Jags can get a repeat performance from Maurice Jones-Drew, they will have more than a fighting chance against the undefeated Titans.  David Garrard having the ability to make plays with his legs will also be a factor in neutralizing the Titans defense.  Tennessee could not get the running game going at all against the Bears, and to their credit they adjusted and Kerry Collins played great, but Jacksonville’s defense is better against the pass than Chicago’s.  This is a fierce division rivalry that is always close, and I have a hunch the Jaguars will save their season and get to .500 by pulling out a tough win in front of the home fans.  

– Falcons over Broncos: I expect a high scoring shootout in this one.  The Broncos offense is back to form now that they have Tony Scheffler back in the lineup to stretch the defense, and Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal will benefit from great matchups against the Atlanta secondary.  One of them will be matched against former Bronco Dominique Foxworth, who routinely got burned in Denver, so as a Broncos fan I am licking my chops at that one.  Thing is, the Broncos are very thin at running back, having just signed old friend Tatum Bell this week.  Bell was selling cell phones in the mall last week, so who knows how good of shape he’ll be in.  Meanwhile, the Broncos defense is so banged up that none of their starting linebackers are available, although Champ Bailey may try to play.  Still, the Falcons are as red hot as anyone in the league right now, and are right in the mix in the NFC South at 6-3.  Matt Ryan is certainly not playing like a rookie, and he has an excellent matchup here against Denver’s 29th ranked pass defense, even if Bailey plays.  Factor in Denver’s complete inability to stop the run, and you also have big plays from Michael Turner and probably Jerious Norwood too.  I like Atlanta to win a close high scoring game in this one.  Side note, how ironic would it be if the Falcons beat Denver on a last second Jason Elam field goal?  My stomach churns as I type the sentence.  

– Chiefs over Saints: UPSET OF THE WEEK.  I may be nuts, but Kansas City has given terrific effort for three straight weeks, only to lose in heartbreaking fashion each time.  They lost to the Jets on a last second drive by Favre, they let a huge lead get away at home against the Bucs, and they lost in San Diego when Herm Edwards rolled the dice to go for two at the end and they didn’t get it (although that would not have been necessary if not for a missed extra point earlier in the game).  Remember the name Mark Bradley.  In fact you might want to grab him in your fantasy league if he is still available.  The rookie is rapidly emerging as a major threat in the Kansas City offense, and he and Dwayne Bowe actually have a very favorable matchup against the Saints’ secondary.  New Orleans has been up and down all year, despite an MVP type year from Drew Brees.  The Saints should get Reggie Bush back, and that will definitely help their offense in more ways than one.  Even though the Saints should score a ton of points in this game, something smells fishy here.  If Arrowhead Stadium is rocking, and the fans who have shown up this year have still been loud, than I think the Chiefs hard effort pays off in the form of an upset win.

– Packers over Bears: One of the league’s best rivalries gets renewed in the NFC North, and both teams are coming off tough losses.  This is the type of game where you have to throw the records out owing to the intense nature of the rivalry.  Chicago’s defense gave a great effort against the Titans, holding them to minus 5 yards in the first half, but their suspect pass defense ended up catching up with them in the end.  Kyle Orton will try to return for the Bears, and if he does it will really help take the pressure off rookie back Matt Forte.  Green Bay lost a bizarre game to the Vikings, where they lost despite getting an interception return for a touchdown and a punt return TD.  They would have won if not for a Mason Crosby missed field goal at the end, but it’s not often a team even has a chance to win after giving up two safeties in one game.  The fact that the Packers are back at Lambeau Field will be the sway factor in this one.  Aaron Rodgers should be able to make enough plays in the passing game to give the Packers a much needed victory, which will create a real logjam in the NFC North.  

– Panthers over Lions: Blowout of the week.  Carolina’s offense will be back to form after an off week against the Raiders in which Jake Delhomme was just 7 of 27.  The Panthers will have no problem moving the ball against the Lions to the point where last week’s offensive struggles will seem like a distant memory.  Steve Smith will have a monster day, and the Carolina running game will have a big day too.  The Lions seem unsure who will start at quarterback, but it won’t matter if it’s Daunte Culpepper or Drew Stanton, either one will have a big problem against Carolina’s attacking defense.  I can’t even come up with a feeble argument for how Detroit can even keep this game close.  They can’t run it, they can’t pass, and they can’t play defense, that about sums it up.  The 0-16 watch is on in Detroit, as the Lions schedule does not ease up after this game in any way.  

– Buccaneers over Vikings: This will be a very entertaining game.  I can’t wait to see the unstoppable force (Adrian Peterson) go against the immovable object (the Bucs defense).  Something has to give here, because Peterson is a threat for a big play every time, while Tampa Bay’s defense makes a habit of making even Pro Bowl offensive players look foolish.  If Peterson is taken away, Gus Frerotte will have a difficult time making plays in the passing game, so it will be important for the Vikings to be able to run the ball.  This game may well be decided on the other side of the ball, where it will be key for the Bucs’ offense to control the clock against the Vikings’ defense.  Most teams have had trouble running against Jared Allen and company, so the onus will be on Jeff Garcia to make plays.  Both divisions are really tight, so this a game that both teams really need.  I go with Tampa Bay because they’re playing at home, largely on the strength of their defense being at least able to contain Peterson.  

– Cardinals over Seahawks: Matt Hasselbeck is back for the Seahawks, although it screams too little too late.  Mike Holmgren’s club is 2-7 and actually trails the Cardinals by four games in the NFC West.  Seattle actually gave a valiant effort last week in Miami, and Hasselbeck’s return and the home crowd should give the Seahawks a lift, but the Cardinals know this is a game they need too.  Arizona has to deal with the Giants and the Eagles in the next two weeks, so there is no way they want to head into that stretch coming off a loss.  The Cardinals struggled at times against San Francisco last week, but Kurt Warner still made the throws he needed to, and the defense came up with big stops at the end.  This is the type of game Arizona would have blown in the past, but not this time.  Even though the Seahawks will be fired up with Hasselbeck returning, Arizona will have enough to win this one, even on the road.  

– 49ers over Rams: The question facing the Rams is have they given up on the season?  St. Louis really looked like they didn’t care last week against the Jets, and that can only mean good news for Rams’ opponents the rest of the year.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see Marc Bulger yanked in favor of Trent Green, and Steven Jackson is once again out of this game due to injury.  The 49ers played with a sense of purpose last week, and it looks like Mike Singletary is well on his way to turning things around.  If not for a crazy sequence at the end of the game, they would have upset the Cardinals, and this is the kind of game where San Francisco will be able to feel good about itself going forward.  Frank Gore should have his best game of the season, and should be able to run at will against the porous Rams’ defense.  There is talent on this Niners team, and they can begin the process of building momentum for next year now, starting with a big win here.  

– Cowboys over Redskins: Tony Romo is back for Dallas in the Sunday night game, and that will energize the Cowboys’ offense.  Dallas is also coming off a bye week, so they have had a chance to regroup.  For all that has gone wrong in Big D, they are still 5-4, and very much in the thick of the playoff race.  It is ironic that they have essentially switched positions with the Giants from last year.  Last year Dallas won the NFC East while the Giants floundered midseason and got it together at the end to win the Super Bowl.  If the Cowboys believe in history repeating itself, then they very much have a chance to make a serious run.  Romo’s return is definitely good news for Terrell Owens and Roy Williams, who has had the bye to get more comfortable with the offense.  The possible return of Felix Jones should also help Dallas get the running game going.  Washington, meanwhile, is also coming off a bye but they also got waxed by Pittsburgh in their last game.  to make matters worse, Clinton Portis is doubtful with an MCL injury.  Even if Portis plays he won’t be near 100 percent, and that will make things very difficult for the Redskins.  Even though Washington is at home, and even though it is a big rivalry, and even though the Redskins will benefit from a rocking crowd, Dallas shows they are back in the mix by collecting a huge road win on a national stage.  

– Bills over Browns: The Monday nighter seems like a big yawner compared to all the other great matchups this week, but it is very important for the Bills, who are already in last place in the AFC East despite a 5-4 record, and will further find themselves entrenched in that spot with another loss.  Buffalo has lost three straight, and their 4-0 start seems like distant history.  Trent Edwards has really struggled in the past month or so, but he has chance to get things together in this game against a Browns defense that gave up 447 yards passing to Jay Cutler last week.  Buffalo needs their defense to step up in this one, as the Browns will be sure to open things up a little more for Brady Quinn than they did in his first game.  Quinn developed great chemistry with Kellen Winslow immediately, so that could be bad news for Buffalo, but I say the Bills’ raucous home Monday night crowd will give them a lift early, and then Edwards should be able to pull something out of the bag in the second half to give the Bills the win.  Something to watch in this game also: both sets of special teams are capable of making big plays, including touchdown returns.  If one of these teams scores a special teams touchdown, it could sway the game.  Still, I like the Bills.

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Thursday Night Football Pick

Posted by mizzou1028 on November 13, 2008

The NFL Network certainly lucked out with its Thursday night game draw this week, a titanic AFC East showdown between the Jets and Patriots.  Both teams sit 6-3, and both teams have been hot lately.  The Jets have won five of their past six games, including a 47-3 thrashing of the Rams last week in which they had a 40-0 lead at HALFTIME.  Granted, two of the other Jets wins in that stretch have come against the Bengals and Chiefs, but they also hung 56 points on the NFC West leading Cardinals (how strange does that phrase sound?) and they also won a tough division road game in Buffalo.  New England, meanwhile, has managed to win three of its past four, including a win over the Bills themselves last week in which they sealed it with a 19 play, 92 yard drive that took 9:08 off the clock in the fourth quarter.  Basically the Patriots were able to hold the ball for two thirds of the fourth quarter to seal the win, which is needless to say impressive. 

The winner of this game takes over sole possession of first place in the AFC East, so it’s obviously a critical game for both teams.  This is exactly the kind of game the Jets signed Brett Favre for, an intense division game on the road.  Favre has certainly if nothing else provided the Jets a spark, which is an understatement considering the Jets have already surpassed their 2007 win total.  The Jets have run the ball well with Thomas Jones, and that will certainly help them control the tempo of the game, especially in trying to temper the intense crowd of New England fans that will be on hand.   The Jets’ defense has also been playing surprisingly well as of late, so that gives them a chance in this game.  If they can get pressure on Matt Cassel, they will have a chance. 

Speaking of Cassel, the Patriots have gotten very good play from him over the past month or so.  He hasn’t put up spectacular numbers, but he has made the plays he has needed to and has not made bad decisions.  Sounds almost like a carbon copy of the 2001 Tom Brady doesn’t it?  The Patriots haven’t been getting the big plays from Randy Moss that they got last year, but Wes Welker is among the league leaders in catches, and they’ve found ways to score enough points to win games.  New England has run the ball effectively despite being gashed with injury at the running back position, and the defense has done a good job keeping them in games. 

The key to this game will be whether or not the Jets’ defense can get pressure on Cassel.  For all that Cassel has done well, he has been sacked a whopping 29 times this season.  Even in his best game against the Broncos, Cassel was sacked six times.  Even last week against the Bills, there were times where he didn’t necessarily look comfortable in the pocket, although he was able to make the plays he needed to.  If the Jets can rattle Cassel and force him into turnovers, it will change the complexion of the game considerably.   Keep in mind the Patriots won the week two meeting in New York 19-10 primarily because they were able to pressure Favre and make him uncomfortable.  The Jets will need to do the same to Cassel in order to win.

This will certainly be an intense, tight game throughout, but I have to give the Patriots a slight edge in this one.  They are playing a night game at home, they won the first meeting on the road already, and they’ve won 11 of their past 12 games against the Jets.  I think Favre will make enough plays to keep the Jets in it, but it won’t be quite enough.  While the Jets defense might be able to get to Cassel a little bit, the Patriots will somehow find a way to pull this one out at home.  Even with a short week to prepare, it’s hard to bet against Bill Belichick when the game is this close. 

The Pick: Patriots 20, Jets 17

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Week Ten Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on November 7, 2008

Obviously we’re off to a flying start this week after being incorrect on the Thursday night game, but as I’ve said I am ecstatic that I was wrong and the Broncos didn’t lose.  Before we get to the picks, bad news for the Broncos today, as Ryan Torain is done for the year with a torn ACL.  Is there anyone out there healthy enough to play running back?  Anyone?  We’ll delve more into the Broncos’ running back quandry next week, but in the meantime, on to the picks. 

Last Week: 8-6 (.571)   Season: 79-50 (.612)

– Patriots over Bills: This should be a great game.  Both teams are coming off close losses, and both are in the midst of a three way tie for the division lead.  The Bills will be fired up after losing two division games in a row, but I pick New England mainly because they always seem to win every time I give up on them.  Bill Belichick has done maybe the best coaching job of his career this season, and the Patriots should have enough in the tank to win this big division game at home.  Trent Edwards has not played well on the road, while Matt Cassel has done more than a serviceable job for the Patriots, especially at Gillette Stadium.  In a close game like this, it will be the quarterback play that will make the difference and I actually give the nod to Cassel in this one.  Keep in mind these teams meet in Buffalo the last week of the season, and that could be for the AFC East title. 

– Dolphins over Seahawks: This definitely has the look of a mismatch.  The Dolphins have to qualify as one of the league’s top surprises with a 4-4 record at the midway point following a 1-15 effort last season.  Miami’s run defense has done a superb job all season, especially last week when they held the Broncos to just 14 yards rushing.  This spells bad news for Seattle, which has to start Seneca Wallace at quarterback for one more week while Matt Hasselbeck recovers from injury.  The Dolphins are believing that they are a contender, while the Seahawks are on their way to what is easily the worst season in the Mike Holmgren era.  Couple that with the fact Miami is at home, and you have what should be an easy Dolphins victory.   This is my eliminator pick this week mainly because the Seahawks have been so atrocious. 

– Jets over Rams: New York is also involved in the three way tie for the AFC East lead, and they should be able to enjoy an easy home win in this one.  The Rams showed life the first few games of the Jim Haslett era, but they have very quickly come back to Earth.  Steven Jackson is benched for the time being because Haslett doesn’t believe he’s giving full effort, and the Rams defense got exposed big time last week in the loss to Arizona.  The Jets have quietly won three of their past four games, including a surprising road win last week in Buffalo.  Even if Brett Favre goes into his throwing gift interceptions mode, the Rams won’t have enough horses to keep up in this one.  If nothing else, the Jets should be able to get a big rushing day from Thomas Jones.

– Ravens over Texans: This game was originally scheduled to be played in week two, but was moved due to Hurricane Ike.  Houston has come back to Earth after a scorching three week period after a loss to Minnesota last week and the injury to quarterback Matt Schaub.  This plays right into Baltimore’s hands: backup QB (Sage Rosenfels) versus the always tough Ravens defense.  Houston still has enough weapons in the passing game that they’ll be able to move the ball some, but the Ravens are quickly proving that they deserve to be in the playoff mix.  Baltimore’s defense is quickly regaining its reputation as one of the league’s best, and that has allowed them to be competitive in every game this season, even on the road.  The Ravens get the road win to keep Pittsburgh within sight in the AFC North.

– Steelers over Colts: There is a question mark for Pittsburgh at quarterback: will it be Ben Roethlisberger or Byron Leftwich?  Either way, the Steelers are in good shape because Willie Parker is back to anchor the running game, and Leftwich really played very well last week in the win over the Redskins.  The Colts gave a gutsy performance in their win over New England last week, but Heinz Field is always a tough place to play, and Peyton Manning and company have yet to give two solid performances in a row this year.  The Steelers defense will not allow the Colts receivers to get separation, nor will they allow a hobbled Joseph Addai to have a big day.  Indianapolis still has more than enough talent to make a run for a playoff spot, but they face too tall of an order in this one.  Pittsburgh gets the home win in one of the better games of the week.

– Jaguars over Lions: I have once again fallen into the trap of the Jacksonville Jaguars, but they can’t possibly fall flat on their faces in this one can they?  Jacksonville is an awful 3-5 after a surprise loss in Cincinnati last week, which means the Jaguars are at the very least a contender for most disappointing team this season.  My preseason AFC Super Bowl pick is really letting me down in more ways than one, but I still believe they are not out of it yet.  David Garrard has actually done a superb job despite the record, but the problem for the Jaguars has been their inability to run the ball.  That should change against a Detroit defense that has been gashed by everyone.  Daunte Culpepper gets the start for the Lions after being signed just last week, so it will be interesting to see how he plays.  I think the Jaguars will find a way to win this one on the road, but I have admit an upset is possible if Culpepper plays well.  If Jacksonville loses this one, it will prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that my preseason predictions are good for nothing but kindling, but at least that would put me in good company.

– Bears over Titans: I smell an upset here, mainly because the Titans have won a ton of close games this season, and odds are that one of them will go the other way at some point.  I do put an asterisk by it in the sense that it is unknown whether Kyle Orton or Rex Grossman will get the start for Chicago.  In either case, the Bears will be extremely fired up for this one at Soldier Field, especially since they have an opportunity to extend their lead in the NFC North.  Tennessee has played great defensively, but Chicago’s defense has also forced a ton of turnovers.  If the Bears can win the turnover battle, which is not farfetched by any means as aggressive as their defense is, they will have an opportunity to give their offense a short field, which could easily make the difference in the game.  In typcial Tennessee fashion, the game will once again come down to the wire, but a hunch says the Soldier Field crowd sways the Bears to their biggest win of the year.

– Panthers over Raiders: This will be one of the blowouts of the week.  Carolina is fresh off a bye, and their offense is really clicking with Jake Delhomme and company putting up points.  Oakland is in shambles (what else is new) after releasing big ticket free agent signee DeAngleo Hall and getting shut out at home last week by Atlanta.  The Panthers have too many weapons for the Raiders to contain, especially now that Hall is gone.  Carolina is in position for a bye right now in the NFC playoff picture, and they know they have to keep winning to maintain it.  If I hadn’t already used the Panthers in my eliminator pool, I would be sure to use them here.  Carolina wins big. 

– Chargers over Chiefs: San Diego is also coming off a bye, and is still very much in play in the AFC West despite a 3-5 record.  Even after Denver’s win over Cleveland last night, the Chargers are just a game and a half back in the division with a very friendly schedule awaiting down the stretch.  San Diego for whatever reason has yet to consistently put anything together, but they have now had the bye week to figure it out.  They do get a Chiefs team that has really shown improvement and signs of life the last two games, but Kansas City has still not been able to win.  The Chiefs may well win another game or two before the season is finished, but it won’t come here.  San Diego wins easily at home to kick off their post-bye schedule.

– Vikings over Packers: I really went back and forth on this one, and in the end you might as well flip a coin.  This is a really intense division rivalry, and both teams have been up and down this season.  Both teams have experienced success offensively in recent weeks, and both have outstanding running games, so this has the potential to be a shootout.  The Packers won the first meeting at Lambeau Field in week one, but that was with Tarvaris Jackson under center for Minnesota.  Gus Frerotte has done an admirable job in the that role for the Vikings, and they have a lot of momentum after a home win against Houston last week.  The Metrodome will be rocking for this one, and that will ultimately prove to be the difference in this one as Minnesota jumps back into the NFC North race.

– Falcons over Saints: This game has the potential to be a shootout too.  New Orleans will be without Reggie Bush for one more week, which means the onus will be on Drew Brees and the passing game to move the ball, which they have been very effective doing all year.  The Saints are also coming off a bye, which has helped them recover from the London trip.  The Falcons have been a tremendous surprise at 5-3, and Matt Ryan is playing not only well for a rookie, but he has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league this season (and a borderline must start in fantasy the way he keeps improving).  Atlanta will have no trouble scoring points at home in the Georgia Dome, and they will pull out a narrow win at home in what should be a very entertaining game.   

– Eagles over Giants: The Sunday night game will be dynamite.  Not only is this one of the most intense rivalries in football, but this game matches two of the top teams in the NFL.  The Eagles are right in the thick of the NFC race even though they’ve battled numerous injuries at virtually every position.  Now that they are starting to get healthy, they are starting to show how good they can be.  The Giants are of course the defending champs and have been very tough on the road, including their win two weeks ago in Pittsburgh.  The Giants have to absolutely be considered at the very least in the top 2 or 3 teams in the league right now, and probably are the top team considering they are the defending champs, but a hunch says Philadelphia will get a tremendous lift from a raucous crowd that is still on cloud nine from the Phillies’ World Series victory.  Philadelphia wins what could out to be one of the best games of the season, not just the week.  Regardless of how this one turns out, both teams will be right in the thick of everything at the end.

– Cardinals over 49ers: It has to be a sign of the apocalypse to see the Arizona Cardinals hosting a Monday night game doesn’t it?  Or is it more of a shock that they have a commanding lead in the NFC West, and should pummel poor San Francisco in this one?  The 49ers have had the bye week to regroup, and they do have one of the league’s top running backs in Frank Gore, but that’s about all they have going for them.  No doubt interim coach Mike Singletary is intense, but no amount of intensity will be able to help the Niners stop Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin from running wild.  Remember when it was a question whether it would be Kurt Warner or Matt Leinart under center for the Cardinals this year?  That seems like ancient history.  The Cardinals with a win would be 6-3 and clearly on track to host a playoff game, no that would have to be a sign of the apocalypse.  Arizona wins this one so easily that viewers will flip away by the third quarter.

BYE: Bengals, Cowboys, Redskins, Buccaneers – these are the last of the byes this season

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I’m Glad I was Wrong

Posted by mizzou1028 on November 7, 2008

I wouldn’t believe it if I didn’t see it with my own eyes.  I honestly didn’t believe the Broncos had much of a chance to win in Cleveland on a short week going into the game, let alone when they trailed 23-10 in the second half, missing ALL of their tailbacks due to injury, struggling to get pressure on Brady Quinn, and reverting to giving up big plays in the running game.  What resulted is one of most exciting games I have ever seen, maybe exciting enough to go in the top five, but for sure in the top ten.  I’m not sure what I’m most excited about.  I could give accolades to Jay Cutler for his 447 yard, three touchdown effort that ranks third in Broncos history.  (Trivia question: can you name the two quarterbacks who posted the highest single game yardage efforts?  Hint: neither one is John Elway.  The answer is at the end).  I could praise Eddie Royal for his 164 yard effort, including a 93 yard TD that completely changed the momentum, that resulted in a Broncos rookie record for reception yards in a game.  I could talk about Brandon Marshall, who stepped big with the clinching touchdown, or Tony Scheffler, who had 92 yards receiving despite playing with a groin so sore he didn’t think he was going to play when conducting his own pregame interview on the Broncos radio network.  There’s also Ryan Torain, who ran hard before injuring his knee in the second quarter, and even Selvin Young, who tried so hard to tough it out when he was literally the last running back standing, even though he himself was nursing a groin injury such that Mike Shanahan was hoping not to have to use him.  Even the much maligned defense stepped up when it mattered, forcing a key fourth quarter fumble and coming up with the fourth down stop to preserve the win at the end.  

Truth is, everyone mentioned played a critical role in this win for the Broncos.  I realize that sounds cliche, but it’s the only way they could have come back and won a game where everything seemed lost.  How many teams do you know that would be even remotely effective offensively when they’re down to their fifth running back?  On that note, let’s not forget about Peyton Hillis, who kept the game alive with a critical conversion on fourth and 1 with the Broncos trailing 30-27 and time rapidly ticking away.  This is type of clutch play the Broncos have been missing the past few weeks.  It is this type of unsung play, which won’t get a lot of notice in the box score, that separates winners from losers.  A key play for sure, one that the Broncos couldn’t have won without, and one that wouldn’t have had a chance to happen at all if not for a real gutsy play much earlier in the game.  

It is amazing in a way that the Broncos were able to keep it together.  They had lost four of their past five, they continued to lose guys to injury, they had no running backs left, they were down by 13 on the road, and they had no momentum against a Browns team that was starting to look like it was getting new life on a lost season.  Even looking at the body language of the players on the sideline, it didn’t look like the Broncos were going to come back.  Somehow, the defense was able to force a punt, a victory in itself for a unit that was missing several of its top players and had struggled to stop the Browns most of the night.  That’s when Jay Cutler proved that he has the gusto to be a great quarterback in the NFL.  The Broncos faced the prospect of starting their drive at their own 7 yard line (Does this evoke memories of The Drive anyone?).  Most teams are scared to take a shot down the field when they’re backed up that deep, but Cutler took the chance.  Despite a dropback that practically took him to his own goal line, he launched a perfect strike down the sideline to Royal, who caught it perfect stride, left a gambling defensive back grasping for air, and was off to the races.  This play changed the momentum so dramatically that the body language on each respective sideline changed.  The Browns players were the ones that had looks of shock of despair, and the Broncos players were rejuvenated, and it showed in their play the rest of the night.  Plays like the 93 yard touchdown pass from Cutler to Royal can define a season, and in this case it may have quite literally saved the Broncos season in more ways than one.

It should be noted that not only did Cutler show a lot of guts to make that throw in that situation and field position, but Mike Shanahan and his staff should be credited for calling that play in that situation.  Maybe they would have run the ball if Torain or Young was healthy enough to do so, and we’ll probably never know for sure, but in any case, Shanahan deserves credit for rolling the dice and dialing deep when most coaches would go the safe route.  There are a lot of Broncos fans calling for Shanahan’s head, mainly because the Broncos have won just one playoff game since John Elway’s retirement.  I have long argued that the Broncos would never have won a Super Bowl in the first place if not for Shanahan, and it is easy to forget that he has won 150 career games, no small achievement.  If Shanahan were to leave the Broncos, odds are your team would be among the first in line to hire him.  It is easy to forget that Shanahan is not the one on the field turning it over or getting beat deep.  I challenge you to tell me another coach that could have kept his team together in a situation like the Broncos had in Cleveland, and of course there are others, but tell me someone out there and available who would be better than Shanahan.  The answer is no one.  

I believe the Broncos saw a very impressive glimpse into their future tonight.  When clicking, the offense is as good as any in the NFL right now, and that’s with most of the key players having three years or less experience in the league.  As they continue to play together and mature together, things will only get better.  Jay Cutler is indeed the real deal, having shown ability to lead his team from behind.  A win like this not only gives a team hope, but it gives them confidence even when things aren’t going well.  Frankly, things didn’t go well tonight for Denver for the most part for three quarters, but when push came to shove, they managed to pull a win out of nowhere.  Now, they have a game and a half lead over San Diego in the AFC West, and suddenly the next game at Atlanta doesn’t appear to be the guaranteed loss it seemed to be 24 hours ago.  (Side note: the NFL Network’s Adam Schefter told us tonight that Champ Bailey will play against Atlanta.  If that’s true, it will be another huge boost for the Broncos).  Suddenly, the Broncos actually winning the AFC West with an actual winning record doesn’t seem so impossible. Sure, the defense could still use some work, but they stepped up when it counted, and all things considered continue to show improvement.  Let’s not forget also the offensive line has only allowed five sacks this year, which is truly amazing especially with a rookie left tackle (Ryan Clady) who has been nothing less than terrific and doesn’t get a lot of press for it.  It’s really amazing how one game can really change your picture on things.  There is still obviously a lot of season left, but one thing is for sure: the Broncos are not left for dead yet, and will be a major player in the AFC race.

Trivia answer: Jake Plummer (499 yards vs. Atlanta in 2004), and Gus Frerrote (462 yards vs. San Diego in 2000).

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Broncos Football on a THURSDAY???

Posted by mizzou1028 on November 6, 2008

I have to admit I can never get used to it when the Broncos, or any other NFL team, plays a Thursday game.  This is the fourth consecutive year the Broncos have drawn a Thursday contest (including two Thanksgiving Day games) and I still can’t get used to it.  I actually applaud the concept of getting more games on television for the fans, although I’m not sure NFL Network counts as a national broadcast at this point due to the fact numerous households still don’t get the channel.  At any rate, the Broncos face a very difficult task for numerous reasons: the short week, the fact they’re coming off a tough loss, the numerous injuries on both sides of the ball, and the travel on such a short timetable (to the eastern time zone to boot, where no pacific or mountain time zone team has won a game this season).  If that’s not enough, they get what is sure to be a raucous crowd at Cleveland Browns Stadium that will be excited for the debut of Brady Quinn.

My pick for the game is coming in a moment, but first a reminder that this is the first of a slate of Thursday NFL games every week for the rest of the season, so remember this if you are in an eliminator pool, have a fantasy lineup that needs to be set before the first kick, or even if you have players that may be involved in the game that you need to make a decision on.  In this space, I will offer a pick for each Thursday game before it kicks off, and then will follow up with the rest of the picks on Friday as normal.  So remember to look for the rest of my picks for week 10 on Friday, along with a recap of the Broncos and Browns.  

This is a very difficult game to pick because both teams are a mess.  The Broncos have no choice but to start Ryan Torain at tailback because no one else is left.  Andre Hall and Michael Pittman were placed on injured reserve this week, and Selvin Young won’t be 100 percent even if he plays.  The coaches do love Torain, but he didn’t look up to speed against Miami.  The Broncos also will likely still be without Tony Scheffler, who will take the extended time before the next game to try and get back in the lineup.  His absence has had a real adverse effect on the passing game.  Meanwhile, Denver’s defense took another hit with the news that leading tackler D.J. Williams will be out at least a month with a torn MCL.  This means no Williams and no Bailey (either of them).  Not to mention, the Broncos are sitting on a league worst minus 11 turnover margin in their past five games.  It can be argued that the Broncos are leading their division, but that carries no weight whatsoever for a team that has lost four of its past five games.  It actually came as a surprise to me to read today that the Broncos are just 20-20 in their past 40 games, and that frankly isn’t acceptable for us in Broncos Country. 

The Browns have finally made the long overdue decision to yank Derek Anderson in favor of Brady Quinn.  This is a move I have advocated for since the offseason, when Cleveland made the surprising decision to offer Anderson a 3 year $24 million contract, even though they had made a big investment in Quinn by making him their first round pick in 2007.  This season Anderson has been anything but great, ranking dead last among starting quarterbacks with a terrible 49.8 completion percentage.  While Anderson has been dreadful at times, Quinn is of course an unknown, having made just one appearance in mop up duty last year.  The timing of the decision to make the move to Quinn with such a short week to prepare also seems a little odd.  The Browns are coming off a loss to Baltimore in which they blew a 27-13 second half lead and watched the Ravens score 20 unanswered points to end the game.  Cleveland’s defense has struggled against the run this year, having given up 154 yards to rookie Ray Rice last week, allowing him to average 7.3 yards a carry.  The Browns’ 3-5 start is not what they were hoping for after knocking on the door to the playoff party last season.

Sometimes when you have two struggling teams going at it, it actually turns out to be a good game, and that could be the case here.  I really hope I’m wrong, but I think this game shapes up to be bad news for the Broncos in more ways than one.  I do think the Broncos will be able to run better than they did against Miami, and I also think Jay Cutler and the passing game will give a better effort.  I think the deciding factor will be the play of Quinn, and if he doesn’t panic in his first start, he will be guaranteed to find Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow open all night with the Broncos missing their top defenders.  Edwards against Dre’ Bly in particular makes me really nervous, with Edwards looking like he’s about to break out for a big game the way his numbers have been climbing the past few weeks.  If the Broncos can rattle Quinn early and maybe even force an early turnover, which they haven’t done all year, then they will be able to stay in the game and maybe even control it.  If they can’t, it will be another long night for the orange and blue.  I really want to pick the Broncos to bounce back, but the rational side of me tells me I can’t.  The short week, the trip east, the missing bodies, the lack of confidence, it will be too much for the Broncos to overcome.

The Pick: Cleveland 27 Denver 17 

I really hope I’m wrong…….

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We’re Still Leading the AFC West HOW?

Posted by mizzou1028 on November 3, 2008

I’m not really sure where to start in explaining the Broncos’ loss to Miami.  For starters it seems easy to point the finger at the officiating crew for wiping out Brandon Marshall’s 77 yard touchdown on an absolutely atrocious offensive pass interference call, but that is not why the Broncos lost this game.  If not that. then on the surface it would seem really easy to point the finger at the defense, which was missing the Bailey brothers and also D.J. Williams to injury later in the game.  After all, the run defense in particular has been atrocious all year, allowing well over 5 yards a carry coming into the game, and the defense has given up a ton of big plays all year.  I am convinced however that this one is not on the defense in any way.  Consider:

– The Broncos were the first team to completely shut down Miami’s “Wildcat” formation, holding the Dolphins to -6 yards on just four plays where they used the trick formation.  (For those unfamiliar, quarterback Chad Pennington lines up as a wide receiver and running back Ronnie Brown takes the direct snap, looking to keep it, hand off to another back, or throw.  The Dolphins destroyed New England and had great success against other teams using the formation).  

– The Broncos allowed Miami to average just 2.6 yards per rush overall and held the Dolphins to just 75 yards for the game, a significant improvement for the Broncos defense.  If you throw out one 30 yard run by Brown, the Broncos held Miami to just 45 yards on their other 28 carries, an average of just 1.6 yards a carry.

– The Dolphins coverted just 4 of 14 third downs against the Broncos

– The Broncos got great pressure on Chad Pennington, recording three sacks and finally getting an interception

– Denver held Miami without an offensive touchdown for the first 57 minutes of the game

Now, was this a perfect effort on defense? Of course not.  But when you consider how many key players the Broncos were missing (especially the league’s top corner, Champ Bailey), their defensive effort is truly to be commended.  This was particularly true in the first half, when the Broncos, as they have done numerous times this year, held Miami to field goals even when they were put in awful position.  

No, this one is squarely on the offense, where there are numerous things to point to here:

– The running game was AWFUL!  If it weren’t for a seven yard scamper by Andre Hall in garbage time on the last drive, the Broncos would have set a franchise record for fewest rushing yards in a game.  They finished with just 14 yards on 12 carries, good for a really lousy 1.2 yards per attempt (7 yards on 11 carries if you eliminate the meaningless carry by Hall), which is one yard better than the team record low set in 1972.  Granted, Miami is 9th in the NFL in run defense, but this effort by the Broncos’ ground game was particularly embarrassing.  It is simply not possible to win in the NFL without some semblance of a running game, it cannot be done.

– Perhaps partially due to the embarrassing lack of a running game, Brandon Marshall was held to just two catches for 27 yards.  This simply can’t happen. I do give Miami a ton of credit for great coverage on him, but Marshall has the size and speed to have an advantage on most corners in the league.  In his defense, Marshall did have the big play wiped out by the bogus penalty, and he did get the ball thrown to him plenty, but he still was a non-factor in the offense.

– Jay Cutler did not have a good day.  Yes, he threw for 307 yards and two touchdowns, but too often he seemed like he was forcing throws.  It never seemed like he was able to look off any of the secondary to divert attention from where he was planning to throw the ball.  He also threw three very costly interceptions, including one the play after the long touchdown to Marshall was called back and another that was returned for a touchdown.  

– The Broncos were guilty of 10 penalties for 81 yards, including two illegal formation calls.  

While the offense has been frustrating in general really for the last five games, it is the turnovers that are the most maddening.  The Broncos are DEAD LAST in the NFL in turnover margin at -11, which goes a long way toward explaining why they’ve lost four of their last five games.  Even though the defense finally got a pick today, all three of Cutler’s picks were extremely costly.  His first one on the third play of the game was a killer that gave Miami immediate momentum, his second was returned for a touchdown, and his third came on the play after Marshall’s lost touchdown when he was clearly trying to force a play out of frustration, and led to a Dolphins field goal.  The three interceptions led to 13 Miami points, and it could have easily have been more if not for a great effort by the defense.  That is why i say the D cannot be blamed for this one.  

Sometimes football is a very simple game: you turn the ball over more than the other team you get beat.  While turnovers don’t always tell the whole story, it’s usually a great place to start if you’re trying to figure out why someone won a particular game.  It shouldn’t come as any surprise for example, that the Tennessee Titans lead the NFL in turnover ratio at +10, and they are the only undefeated team in the league.  As I say it’s not a guarantee that winning the turnover battle will always lead to success (Kansas City is third in the NFL at +7), but more often than that the great teams will at the very least not give the ball away, even if they aren’t taking it away.  Giving the other team extra opportunities is never a good recipe for success in any sport.  The Broncos were excellent in this area in the first three games when they were the talk of the league, and now that they are giving the ball away left and right, it should not come as a shock that it is leading to losses.  

Yes, the Broncos did get screwed when Marshall’s touchdown catch got wiped out because of offensive interference, but bad calls are part of the game.  I don’t think there is any question it was a terrible call, particularly since the flag did not get thrown until after Marshall was off to the races, but the Broncos still had chances to win the game.  If Cutler had not thrown a pick on the next play, the defense would not have been backed to the wall trying to make a stop.  I said after the Broncos benefited from the Ed Hochuli call against San Diego that the Chargers still had a chance to stop them and the Broncos shouldn’t apologize for it.  It goes both ways too, the Dolphins shouldn’t apologize for getting lucky on a bad call.  It is the Broncos who should apologize for not running the ball and for committing turnovers at inopportune times, that is what cost them this game, not a blown call.  

Somehow the Broncos are still in sole possession of first place in the AFC West with a 4-4 record.  They should be thanking their lucky stars they are in a bad division, because that’s the only thing keeping them afloat right now.  If San Diego fails to get it together, will we actually see an under .500 division champion in the AFC West? For numerous reasons I hope not.  Regardless of the division lead, the Broncos need to at least play like they deserve to be in that spot, starting with Thursday’s tough game in Cleveland.

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Week Nine Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on October 31, 2008

Obviously my predictions need to be taken with a grain of salt, since I once again managed to be woefully incorrect on the World Series.  I have to admit I really thought the two day layover in the middle of game five gave the Rays an advantage, but alas, the Phillies got the job done, and deserve all the credit for doing so.  From the looks of the awful TV ratings, it seems as though I was about the only one to watch anyway.  (The ratings numbers can’t have been helped by Saturday’s massive rain delay and accompanying 10 pm. eastern start time, or by the Barack Obama ad running on seemingly every channel opposite the conclusion of game five).  Incidentally, not shockingly to those who know me, my TV was on the game, not on politics.  I realize that’s not a choice people needed to make in most time zones where the game didn’t overlap, but it did where i live in the Mountain time zone.  My viewing choice would have been the same no matter what party was on the infomercial.  Sports just flat trumps politics in my household, that’s the way it works.  We all clear on this?  Excellent!  Now to the picks:

Last Week: 8-5 (.615)  Season: 71-44 (.617)

– Bills over Jets: Last week the Jets barely beat a Kansas City team that they were supposed to destroy.  Frankly, Kansas City had the upset pulled off if not for some ultra conservative play calling by Herm Edwards on the Chiefs’ last possession they had with the lead, which resulted in a three and out, and allowed Brett Favre a chance to drive the Jets for a go ahead touchdown.  The Jets have turned it over more times than their opponents in their past three games, and they’ve somehow managed to win two of them.  That is not a recipe for success if it keeps up for the Jets.  Buffalo meanwhile is coming off a surprising loss to Miami, and knows they must win this one to maintain their division lead with a Patriots showdown looming next weekend.  I expect a big rebound game from Trent Edwards and I expect the Bills defense to force Favre into a couple of turnovers he won’t be able to recover from.  Buffalo gets the win at home.  

– Broncos over Dolphins: I know I seem to always fall into the trap of picking my team to win, but this is one that the Broncos should be able to get regardless of badly they’ve played recently.  They are coming of a much needed bye week, they are getting injured players back (Tony Scheffler, Brandon Stokley, Selvin Young), and the running game will also get the added bonus of Ryan Torain’s much anticipated debut.  If he is still available in your fantasy league, claim him now, because it’s only a matter of time before Torain is the starter.  Torain was the talk of training camp before he got injured, and he should shine in Denver’s system.  In any case, the Broncos offense should be able to get back on track in this game against a Dolphins pass defense that is ranked 25th.  Miami did get the win last week against Buffalo, and should be able to run the ball with Ronnie Brown and the Wildcat formation, but they don’t have enough offense to keep up if Denver is clicking.  The Broncos get a narrow home win.

– Jaguars over Bengals: I simply refuse to give up on Jacksonville.  How this team is 3-4 is absolutely beyond me.  If they can’t win their next two games (this one and the Lions next week), then I suppose there really is no hope for them.  I still think the Jaguars will be a playoff team when everything is said and done, but they need Maurice Jones-Drew to be more dominant, and they need David Garrard to manage the game better.  Jacksonville let a home game slip away against Cleveland, and they know that urgency is starting to settle in with the AFC race so tight.  Going on to road to Cincinnati and all the empty seats that await is not intimidating, and the Jags’ defense shouldn’t have any trouble harassing Ryan Fitzpatrick or shutting down Cincinnati’s less than stellar running game.  The Bengals’ passing game doesn’t have much hope either after Chad Johnson (or Ocho Cinco or whatever) and T.J. Houshmanzadeh have now both disappeared for weeks.  Jacksonville wins in a laugher here.

– Browns over Ravens: This should be a very good, low scoring, defensive game.  Baltimore clobbered the Browns in Baltimore week three, but this is always an emotional game for the Cleveland fans since the old Browns left for Baltimore in 1995.  Cleveland is playing infinitely better since that week three meeting, and gave a very impressive performance in Jacksonville that made me wonder if I wrote them off a little too early after their 0-3 start.  The Ravens have been very impressive too, and would actually be in playoff position if the season ended today.  Joe Flacco had by far his best game as a pro against the Raiders last week, and Willis McGhaee finally looks healthy.  That being said, if Derek Anderson can avoid costly turnovers against the Ravens defense, Cleveland will sneak away with a win in this one.  

– Texans over Vikings: In a mini-upset pick, I think Houston will continue their winning ways in the Metrodome.  The Texans have now won three straight, and their offense has looked more and more impressive each week (I’m still kicking myself for stupidly cutting Matt Schaub in one of my fantasy leagues after week three).  Houston’s passing game will cause all kinds of problems for a Vikings secondary that gave up 48 points to a less than explosive Bears offense before the bye.  Minnesota has had a disappointing start and has certainly failed to meet the preseason hype, and they will be a desperate team playing in front of a raucous home crowd, but I just can’t see how they’ll be able to contain Houston’s offense.  Even a huge day for Adrian Peterson may not be enough to keep up, and on a hunch I say Houston wins a close one at the wire.  

– Packers over Titans: MAJOR UPSET ALERT.  I’ve had a gut feeling on a couple of these this year (Cowboys-Rams being right at the top), and while I have by no means gotten them all right, I have a real gut feeling on this one.  Tennessee has no doubt been the league’s best team with their 7-0 start, and they’re coming off a real emotional Monday night win against the Colts, and that’s why I sense a letdown here.  The Titans have a day less preparation, while the Packers are coming off a bye and will be well rested and healthy.  Green Bay is also two weeks removed from their big win over the Colts, so they won’t have that lingering in the rear view mirror anymore the way it’s still fresh for the Titans.  The key for Green Bay is to avoid turnovers against Tennessee’s stout defense, but I think the Packers will be able to run with Ryan Grant.  If they can, Aaron Rodgers should have an opportunity to make some plays.  Tennessee is built to win a tight, low scoring game, but what if Rodgers has a big day?  Can the Titans offense keep up?  A hunch says Green Bay pulls the upset and knocks off the league’s last unbeaten team.  

– Buccaneers over Chiefs: Needless to say, I am not picking an upset here, although the Chiefs actually did show a surprise pulse last week.  They were actually able to run a little with Jamaal Charles, Tyler Thigpen gave a performance actually resembling an NFL quarterback, and the defense was able to force turnovers.  The problem for Kansas City is that they’re about to face a Tampa Bay team that is hopping mad after they felt they gave one away in Dallas.  The Buccaneers defense has been awesome all year, and Thigpen will find it much harder to move the offense against it than he did against the Jets.  The Buccaneers’ offense has been up and down this year, but it seems like the trend should be up against the Chiefs.  Jeff Garcia is a smart, veteran QB who will not be rattled by the Arrowhead noise, and the Bucs will be able to withstand the early Chiefs’ punch and have enough to pull away for a road win.  

– Falcons over Raiders: Atlanta was needless to say screwed last week in Philly.  Down by six with just over two minutes to go, and receiving a punt, this sequence ensued.  Despite the fact that Adam Jennings clearly didn’t touch the ball, the refs said he did, and gave the ball to Philadelphia.  Brian Westbrook sealed the Eagles’ win with a touchdown run two plays later, and the Falcons were robbed of a chance to potentially take the lead with plenty of time on the clock and roughly 60 yards to go.  Since there was over two minutes on the clock, replay couldn’t be initiated by the booth upstairs, and the Falcons couldn’t challenge because they used their three timeouts to conserve time on defense while the Eagles were trying to get a first down.  This is a ludicrous flaw in the challenge system: should the Falcons have been asked to save a timeout just in case of a blown call?  Of course not.  The challenge system does not take into account blown calls after all challenges have been used.  This is a rant better served for another column, but the point is the Falcons gave a very admirable performance on the road in a hostile road environment, and by all rights may have had the game stolen from them, and I say they will be highly motivated to make a statement against the Raiders.  Oakland looked awful in Baltimore (what else is new?), and it seems like the Raiders should already be trembling of the thought of a very angry, motivated Atlanta team.  Oh, and the Falcons just happen to have more talent.  Atlanta wins in the Black Hole, erasing the memory of a bad loss in Philadephia

– Giants over Cowboys: This NFC East rivalry always bears watching, particularly after New York’s playoff win in Big D last year.  Dallas is still without Tony Romo for one more game (he is expected back Nov. 16 after next week’s bye), so the Cowboys certainly face an uphill battle in the Meadowlands.  Dallas did sneak away with a much needed win against Tampa Bay, and could still find themselves 5-4 after the bye even with a loss here.  Still, the Cowboys are in flux for this one, with Brad Johnson looking over his shoulder at Brooks Bollinger if he has a bad start to the game.  The Giants continue to prove that their title last year was not a fluke, and that everyone who predicted them to miss the playoffs this year (and in many cases finish under .500) seriously missed the boat.  The Giants showed a lot of guts picking up a win in Pittsburgh in a physical game where a lot of teams would have folded up.  This one actually has the look of a blowout if the Giants continue to be able to run the ball effectively and pressure the quarterback they have all year.  The Giants continue to flex their dominance in this one.  Is a Mount TO eruption coming if he has another bad game?

– Eagles over Seahawks: Seattle came out of nowhere and blew out the 49ers last week, although that may not be saying much.  (The Mike Singletary press conference video you’ve surely seen by now says it all about the state of things there).  Given that, we’re not giving Seattle much credit for that one.  Matt Hasselbeck is still out and so are most of his receivers, and that can’t be a good thing for Mike Holmgren’s club over the long haul.  The Eagles showed how their offense is really dangerous when Brian Westbrook is healthy, and that’s another uh oh for Seattle.  Even though the Seahawks are at home, that won’t be much help against the Eagles’ pressure defense, which is sure to have a field day against Seneca Wallace.  Philadelphia is one of the best teams in the league when healthy, and they frankly should have no problem rolling here.  

– Bears over Lions: This is my eliminator pick this week.  Sure, the Lions showed some fight at home against Washington, but they folded like a house of cards when it counted.  Chicago’s offense gave a complete performance against the Vikings before the bye, and the defense has been swarming.  Even though the Bears have given up more points than usual, they’ve made up for it by forcing turnovers at key times and even scoring touchdowns.  This is not good news for Dan Orlovsky, who has not yet shown he can handle pressure well.  Couple that with Detroit’s inability to consistently run the ball, and the Bears defense should be in for a feast.  Chicago is tied for the lead in the NFC North, and they know they need to win this one with a big game against Tennessee coming up.  Chicago should win this one easily.

– Cardinals over Rams: This should be an entertaining game that actually has a lot of subplots.  The former St. Louis Cardinals return to Missouri to play St. Louis’ current team, the Rams.  Dick Vermeil, the coach of the Rams’ 1999 Super Bowl Championship team, is back to be honored in a pregame ceremony.  Kurt Warner, the quarterback of that team, returns as a member of the Cardinals, and is having a great year to boot.  Not to mention, the Rams are slowly showing signs of making a play in the NFC West, where no one has really managed to take control.  The Rams gave great effort in New England last week and if nothing else showed they are not lumped with the dregs of the league.  Arizona is the current leader, and they can extend that with a road win here.  The Cardinals took a tough loss in Carolina last week even though they showed they could play with the Panthers on the road. (West coast teams are still winless when facing an early kick on the east coast this year).  A couple of quick second half turnovers doomed Arizona last week, but their high octane passing game should have a big day indoors on the carpet at the Dome.  The Cardinals continue to surprise with a hard fought win, and a happy homecoming for Warner.  

– Colts over Patriots: Upset alert.  The Sunday night game is one that for the past few years has easily been the league’s showcase game.  These two teams have always battled at the top of the AFC, and had three memorable playoff meetings this decade.  Some luster is taken off this year’s meeting with the absence of Tom Brady and the Colts’ struggles this year.  The Patriots have shown a lot of gusto starting 5-2 without the league’s top quarterback, and came from behind to beat the Rams last week.  As Matt Cassel feels more comfortable, big plays are starting to open up for Randy Moss and Wes Welker.  Indianapolis is coming off two tough losses, but returns home and gets reinforcements.  Top running back Joseph Addai and run stuffing safety Bob Sanders are both expected to be back Sunday night, and that will give the Colts a huge boost in a game they absolutely must win if they want any chance of staying in the AFC race.  The rivalry nature of this game, and the desperation the Colts are surely feeling will be the swing factors as they pull off the upset at home.  One thing is for sure, I know with absolute certainly that Peyton Manning will not allow himself three bad games in a row.  

– Steelers over Redskins: The Monday nighter should be a great one, and it’s not because of the halftime interviews of Barack Obama and John McCain (in fact that should be an excellent time for a bathroom break).  The Steelers lost a tough one to the Giants last week, and will be looking to rebound on a national stage.  Washington is coming off a win over Detroit, but lost Clinton Portis to an ankle injury late in the game.  He still rushed for 125 yards, and says he will be ready to go for the Steelers, but is he 100 percent?  The Redskins have been one of the league’s top surprises at 6-2, and should be fired up for a Monday night game at home, but they haven’t faced a defense as physical as Pittsburgh’s since their week one loss to the Giants.  Pittsburgh will have a fire in their belly as well, and will be able to run the ball with Willie Parker.  If Portis is indeed beat up, the Steelers defense will smell blood in the water and force Jason Campbell to beat them.  Campbell has played well, but a hunch says the Steelers D will be slightly better.  Pittsburgh wins what should prove to be one of the best Monday night games of the year.  I believe the Steelers and Redskins are both playoff caliber teams, and an interconference loss shouldn’t be crippling to either one.  Keep in mind Washington already has all three division road games out of the way, which will really help them down the stretch.

BYE: Chargers, Panthers, Saints, 49ers

NOTE: Those of you need to submit picks and/or fantasy lineups before first kickoff, keep in mind that starting NEXT WEEK NOV. 6 the Thursday night games begin.  Make sure any picks and lineups are turned in accordingly.

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Week Eight Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on October 24, 2008

Much needed bye week for my Broncos, who will need it to get everyone healthy they can.  I’ve run out of things to say after the embarrassment in New England, so let’s get right to the picks.  

Last Week: 10-4 (.714)  Season: 63-39 (.617)

– Bills over Dolphins: Buffalo showed it is for real with a huge win last week against San Diego.  Trent Edwards has done a solid job managing the game for the Bills, and their young players really seem to play well together.  The Bills already have a road win over Jacksonville on their resume in addition to the win over the Chargers thanks also to their outstanding defense.  They shouldn’t have much trouble containing Miami’s offense on the road, even though the Dolphins have shown they can score at times this year.  Chad Pennington has had trouble against aggressive defenses and Buffalo is certainly in that category.  Miami will keep it close for awhile but the Bills will ultimately win this one.  

– Patriots over Rams: Who are the real Patriots?  Are they the team that destroyed Denver, or the one that imploded against San Diego?  The real answer probably lies somewhere in the middle, which means that in typical New England fashion they will probably find a way to make the playoffs.  It is interesting to note that Matt Cassel is starting his career in similar fashion to the way Tom Brady started his.  Brady took over early in the 2001 season for an injured Drew Bledsoe and struggled early in the year before rounding into form about midway through.   Cassel turned in his best performance by far last week against the Broncos, and faces a favorable matchup this week as well.   The Rams have won two in a row, and are clearly a different team with Jim Haslett running things, but going on the road and winning in one of the league’s toughest venues is too much to ask for them.  Patriots win easily.  

– Jets over Chiefs: This might have to go down as the most sure fire pick in NFL history.  The line on this game is 13, and I’m frankly shocked it isn’t much higher.  I’m so shocked in fact, that I’m downright giddy that I picked this weekend to go to Vegas, which means I can make easy money on this game.  The Chiefs will start Tyler Thigpen at quarterback, which is bad news for KC automatically because he can’t play worth a lick.  Larry Johnson has had his team ordered suspension extended another game, which means the Chiefs will also have no running game to speak of.  The Chiefs’ defense has also been horrible, or didn’t you see the Titans rush for 332 yards at Arrowhead last week?  (Check out the hole on LenDale White’s 80 yard touchdown run, looking at that you’d be nuts not to start every Jet you have in fantasy this week, especially Thomas Jones).  Throw in the fact that the Jets are hopping mad they gave one away at Oakland last week, and you have a guaranteed Jets blowout.  Needless to say this is my selection in second chance eliminator pool this week.

– Ravens over Raiders: Baltimore’s defense returned to form last week in Miami, where they completely shut down Miami’s trick formations, and even scored a touchdown, which had always been their trademark.  The Raiders snuck away with a win last week thanks to the Jets’ inability to capitalize, but they’re going to find it absolutely impossible to move the ball in any way against Baltimore.  The Raiders can’t run the ball consistently and JaMarcus Russell will have trouble finding throwing lanes against Baltimore’s ballhawking secondary.  The Ravens have been stellar at home this year, with the only loss coming at the end against undefeated Tennessee.  Willis McGahee is finally healthy, which means the Ravens will have no trouble running the ball effectively.  This will be trademark Baltimore Ravens game, where they win with running and defense.  Ravens by at least two touchdowns in this one.  

– Texans over Bengals: Houston has won two in a row, and they’re in the midst of a stretch where five of six games are at Reliant Stadium.  Matt Schaub had a field day against Detroit last week, and that will continue against a Bengals defense that hasn’t come close to stopping anyone.  Andre Johnson is continuing to emerge as one of the league’s top receiving threats and the Texans have also found a running game with Steve Slaton.  Cincinnati kept it close for three quarters against Pittsburgh last week, but they wore down big time at the end.  The Bengals defense is on the field way too much because the offense can’t move the ball with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center.  You do have to figure the Bengals have too much talent not to get a win at some point this season, but I would be highly surprised if it came here.  The Texans keep it rolling at home.  

– Jaguars over Browns: Jacksonville is fresh off a bye week, and that is bad news for the Browns.  The Jaguars in many ways are fortunate to be 3-3, but they are now entering the easier part of their schedule and are primed to make a move.  Jacksonville rediscovered its running game against the Broncos before the bye with Maurice Jones-Drew finally breaking out for a big day (to be fair that could be more Denver’s defense).  The Browns surrendered over 200 yards on the ground to Washington last week, so the Jaguars should have a big day on the ground as well.  Derek Anderson reverted to form in a bad way against the Redskins, completing just 14 of 37 passes for 136 yards.  That does not bode well for Cleveland against Jacksonville’s excellent defense.  Is the Brady Quinn watch back on?  It might be if Anderson has another bad day.  Jacksonville should win this one fairly easily.

– Steelers over Giants: This is quite possibly the game of the year to this point, let alone the game of the week.  I went back and forth on this so much I’ve been wondering if I could get away with picking a tie.  Of course that would be the ultimate copout, so I went with the home team because the Steelers always rise to the occasion for a big game at Heinz Field.  The Giants are an outstanding road team which doesn’t really make that a cinch, but they did implode in Cleveland two weeks ago and slogged their way to an ugly win last week against San Francisco.  Eli Manning is arguably playing better than his brother Peyton this year, so that has really helped the Giants, but Pittsburgh is getting great play from seemingly anyone in the lineup.  Last week Mewelde Moore stepped in for Willie Parker and ran down Cincinnati’s throat (of course it was the Bengals).  This will be a fantastic game that should go down to the wire, but again the home field edge will make the difference for Pittsburgh.  Incidentally, did you see the phenomenal block by Hines Ward on Cincinnati’s Keith Rivers?  Every receiver in the league should be required to watch that video to see how they should block in the running game, as well as to learn there is more to playing wide receiver than catching the ball.  Obviously it’s unfortunate that Rivers got injured on the play, and for the record we never advocate injury here, but it is still an example of why Hines Ward is one of the great teammates in the league, willing to sell out even when he isn’t the focal point of the play.  

– Chargers over Saints: This game will be played in London, which is ridiculous from the Saints’ perspective because they are giving up the home game, even after they had their entire home slate wiped out in 2005 due to Hurricane Katrina.  This puts the Saints at a disadvantage in so many ways, not the least of which is that their division rivals get an extra home game, plus don’t have to deal with a midseason overseas trip.  What’s worse for the Saints is they will be without Reggie Bush, who had arthroscopic surgery on his knee and will miss 2-4 weeks.  New Orleans did get Marques Colston back last week, but he was ineffective and was held without a catch.  San Diego also has its own issues after the loss to Buffalo, and they are still trying to get LaDainian Tomlinson on track.  The fact that the Chargers went straight to London from Buffalo also puts them at a travel disadvantage along with the Saints.  All things considered, this is not looking at all like the showcase game the league hoped it would be when they picked it for the London matchup.  Oh, and both teams are extremely desperate for a win to stay in their respective races.  A hunch says San Diego gets it together and wins a close one.

– Cowboys over Buccaneeers: I’m having a hard time jumping off the Cowboys bandwagon completely for several reasons, not the least of which is that I picked them to win the Super Bowl.  That being said, Dallas is clearly dysfunctional, as proven by their loss to the Rams (which I correctly predicted, but we don’t generally brag here).  Brad Johnson will start at quarterback, but the fact that the entire team has actually been aware of it all week may help.  I really thought the Tony Romo will he or won’t he play situation last week was a real distraction for the team.  It will still be interesting to see how Roy Williams fits into the offense or if T.O. can get back on track after four subpar games in a row.  The Buccanneers are playing extremely well, and their defense will certainly pose a difficult challenge for Dallas, and the Bucs’ offense has been better with Jeff Garcia.  All that being said, Dallas knows their entire season may well hinge on this game, with road games against the Giants and Redskins looming.  One would think that type of desperation should be enough to give Dallas a jolt needed to get a much needed home win, unless of course the soap opera season is already beyond saving.    

– Eagles over Falcons: Philadelphia is coming off a much needed bye, which allowed them to get Brian Westbrook and others healthy.  They’ll need Westbrook against a Falcons team that is arguably the league’s biggest surprise at 4-2.  Matt Ryan is playing as well as any rookie quarterback has in recent memory, and the Falcons are starting to believe they can win, even getting a road win at Lambeau Field in week five.  This will certainly be a more difficult road test though with the notoriously hostile Philly fans, especially against an Eagles offense that has its full complement of players for the first time in awhile.  Philadelphia is already looking up at the Giants and Redskins, plus they may have an opportunity to distance themselves from the Cowboys.  Home cooking and the return of Westbrook lifts the Eagles to the win, but it wouldn’t be surprising if this game is competitive into the fourth quarter.  

– Redskins over Lions: Washington snuck away with one last week against the Browns, benefiting from a late missed field goal by Cleveland.  Still, the Redskins are looking like a playoff team again this year, particularly with Clinton Portis running wild.  Jason Campbell has shown so far that he has been able to make good decisions for the most part.  Detroit meanwhile actually showed some spunk last week, nearly erasing a 28-0 deficit to Houston and making things interesting at the end.  I believe the Redskins will ultimately win, but something does smell fishy here.  The Lions are due for a good performance at home, where they have not played well this year.  Washington is in a potential trap situation with a Monday night game against Pittsburgh on the horizon, followed by a string of big division games.  I say Washington will win, but an upset is not out of the question here.

– Panthers over Cardinals: This is a very intriguing game.  Carolina looked like their old selves last week as they rolled over the Saints, while Arizona is coming off a bye following a dramatic win over Dallas.  Jake Delhomme had one of his best games last week, and the entire offense looks like it is benefiting big time from the return of Mushin Muhammad, who returned after three years with the Bears.  The Carolina running game also has nice balance with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.  The Cardinals have also been very stellar offensively, with Kurt Warner having a huge year so far.  The Cardinals also benefit from the return of star receiver Anquan Boldin, who missed several games after getting his bell rung in week four against the Jets.  Still, Carolina is extremely difficult to beat at home, and Arizona hasn’t really proven they can win away from the desert yet.  The Panthers will win a relatively close one here.

– 49ers over Seahawks: San Francisco is the latest team to see if a midseason coaching change will work, having axed Mike Nolan after the Giants loss.  Mike Singletary takes over the coaching duties, and he should bring some intensity to the defensive side of the ball, having been one of the best linebackers in the league himself with the Bears in the 80s.  J.T. O’Sullivan may be on a short leash at QB, so he’ll need a big game heading into the bye week, but he should be able to get it against a Seahawks team that is barely a step above terrible.  Frank Gore should be a guarantee for a huge day, especially with a large chip on his shoulder after being held to 11 yards last week.  The Seahawks are decimated with injuries to be fair, but they don’t seem be playing with any intensity, and they seem to be really overmatched against most teams.  Keep in mind the Niners have already won in Seattle, and are going for a season sweep.  San Francisco wins.

– Titans over Colts: This should be a good Monday nighter.  It will be my first chance to actually sit down and watch Tennessee, since their games are never shown in my area.  The Titans defense has been among the best in the league this year, and means bad news for a Colts offense that really struggled last week in Green Bay.  Indianapolis will once again be without Joseph Addai, which will make it difficult if not impossible to run on Albert Haynesworth and company.  I do expect a better game from Peyton Manning than last week, for he has always had decent games against the Titans, even on the road.  Still, there is nothing the Colts seem to be able to do about their inability to stop the run, which is bad news when you’re facing Chris Johnson and LenDale White.  The Titans will also get a huge lift from what is sure to be a raucous crowd, and that will be one of the sway factors for the Titans.  If there is an early Colts turnover, they could even easily end up at the wrong end of another blowout.  Tennessee gets the win, and with it practically buries the Colts already in the AFC South.

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More Bad News in Broncoland

Posted by mizzou1028 on October 22, 2008

The Broncos defense has obviously struggled this season, and their struggles will certainly continue with the news that Champ Bailey could be out at least a month with a torn groin.  Bailey is nothing short of the best cornerback in the game, and even though he has only one pick so far this season, keep in mind that teams refuse to throw at him because he’s so good.  Case in point, Bailey completely shut down Randy Moss for a quarter and a half last night, but as soon as Champ left the game, the Patriots were able to get Moss the ball and he was able to score two touchdowns.  Make so mistake about it, the Broncos’ biggest defensive weakness may still be an inability to stop the run, but Bailey’s absence will not do anyone on that side of the ball any favors.  

The Broncos really find themselves at a crossroads in more ways than one during this bye week.  Yes, they will get their injured players back on offense, including tailback Ryan Torain, who is expected to make a big impact after he dominated camp.  That being said, the Broncos will not be able to replace Bailey in the secondary easily, if at all.  If we’re going off a 4-6 week timeline, Bailey will at minimum not return until Nov. 23 against the Raiders, and could well be out until Dec. 7 against the Chiefs and maybe even beyond.  The Broncos in many ways find themselves fortunate they aren’t going against many of the top passing attacks in the league during that stretch, but defending Braylon Edwards in Cleveland week 10 is a big concern now, as is facing the Falcons and their surprising rookie quarterback Matt Ryan in the Georgia Dome the next week.  Injuries are definitely part of the game, but the Broncos are now facing a challenge in the coming weeks that they weren’t counting on in any way.  None of this seemed possible when the Broncos raced out to a 3-0 start, but now Denver has lost three of its past four games and the prevailing feeling within the organization and the fan base is disappointment, not of excitement for what lies beyond.  One thing is for sure, if the Broncos do manage to return to the playoffs this year, they will have definitely earned it.

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