Regular Season record: 150-105

I’m going to venture a guess that I wasn’t the only one who got swamped in the last two weeks of December, hence why you have to go hunting for my picks from the last two regular season weeks.  We ended up with a 58 percent success rate on picking games this season, which was well short of the 67 percent from the 2009 season.  The plus side for me is that I lasted until week 16 in the eliminator pool this year, finally getting done in by San Diego’s pitiful performance in Cincinnati.  With the playoffs starts a new slate and the goal is to go through a playoff year 11-0 once in my lifetime.  I have never done it, and will probably never be able to successfully do it, but it’s a goal nonetheless.  Here we go with the picks for the four wild card games:

– Saints over Seahawks: If this were a regular season game, I wouldn’t waste my breath writing about it.  This is a complete mismatch, so much so that the host Seahawks are 10 and a half point underdogs.  Seattle is in the playoffs with a losing record thanks to winning the worst division in NFL history.  I mean really, is anyone in Seattle proud to be wearing a Seahawks NFC West champions shirt after a 7-9 season?  The Saints destroyed the Seattle at the Superdome in week 11, with 34-19 final score not an indicator of how much a blowout it was due to a late Seattle touchdown in the closing seconds.  Even though the Saints are without running backs Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory, they won’t need them.  Drew Brees should have a field day as he always does, and the Seahawks offense will likely struggle to move the football against the Saints, just like they have struggled offensively in pretty much every game this season.  This game is example A for why the playoff format is for the birds.  We really don’t want to see the 7-9 Seahawks when a pair of 10-6 NFC teams (the Giants and Buccaneers) are stuck at home.  The Saints will win this by at least two touchdowns

– Colts over Jets: Indianapolis wasn’t themselves this season, and that was clear thanks to their numerous injuries and a down year for Peyton Manning, but the Colts still managed to win four in a row to end the regular season, and if the league doesn’t look out they might just be primed for a playoff run.  I make this pick based partially on the fact that I do think the Colts could be about to get hot, but I also think that the Jets are the luckiest and most overrated team in the league this season.  The Jets got exposed in December with bad losses to the Patriots, Dolphins and Bears, and during the season they needed fluke late circumstances to beat the Broncos, Lions, Browns and Texans.  That’s a lot of wins that I think were strictly luck for the Jets.  They do have a lot of savvy veterans, but so do the Colts.  Indy is also going to be highly motivated since they’re a perceived underdog on their home field.  Besides, I’ll take Peyton Manning over Mark Sanchez every time. 

– Ravens over Chiefs: Baltimore was my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl, and I am going to stick with them.  The Ravens finished 12-4 during the regular season and appear to have all the pieces in place to potentially make a run.  Baltimore has won three road playoff games in the past three seasons under John Harbaugh, so they know what it takes to win in January.  For that reason, Arrowhead Stadium won’t be a problem for them, particularly since Arrowhead isn’t what it used to be thanks to the new club seating and the Chiefs misfortunes of the past decade.  The Chiefs have had a nice bounce back season thanks to a strong running game, but it will be interesting to see if Jamaal Charles can make any headway against one of the best run defenses in the league.  I like the Ravens’ ability to have offensive balance in this game, but I also like their ability to toughen up defensively and slow down the Chiefs.  I think this could be close early, but in the end I think the Ravens win without too much difficulty. 

– Packers over Eagles: This should be the most entertaining game of the weekend.  Green Bay was my preseason Super Bowl pick out of the NFC, and I think they do have the tools to make a playoff run.  The Eagles are everyone’s sexy playoff pick because of Michael Vick, but he has really struggled in his last two appearances against the Giants and Vikings.  I know the Eagles came back and won in New York, but they were down 31-10 in the fourth quarter.  Against the Vikings, Vick had no answer for any of Minnesota’s blitzes, and I think the Packers will employ many of the same tactics, which they used successfully against Jay Cutler in week 17.  I also think Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay passing game could be poised for a big afternoon against the Eagles’ secondary.  This will be close, but a hunch says the Packers will win, and I think that will mean three of the four visiting teams will win this weekend.

By now you surely have realized I never got around to recapping the latest Broncos disaster in Arizona.  Frankly that was largely because I am so disgusted with the Broncos right now that I have decided to wait until after the season to even attempt to analyze them further.  That performance in the desert was so embarrassing that there frankly aren’t any words that can adequately describe it.  This is a new low for the Broncos, and it’s without question the worst they’ve been in my lifetime.  It doesn’t appear to be getting better anytime soon.

Let’s just move on to the picks.  The quickie style is going so well that we’ll keep it going (25-8 over the last two weeks).  The week started with the Chargers slaughtering San Francisco tonight, and that frankly wasn’t a surprise.  The only reason I didn’t go with the Chargers in the eliminator pool (still alive and kicking!) is because I want to use them for another sure slam dunk next week against the Bungles.

Last Week: 13-3   Season: 121-87

– Bills over Dolphins: Upset alert.  The Dolphins should just ask the NFL to let them play every game on the road, since they’re a lot more successful away from Sun Life Stadium.  The Bills won last week and I still think they’ve got an upset in them before the year is out.  A hunch says this it.   Bills fans are still upset because it might cost them a shot at Andrew Luck in the draft.

– Steelers over Jets: I’ve said all the year the Jets are the league’s most overrated team.  They have proven it with two dreadful performances in a row.  They are not a Super Bowl contender.  Pittsburgh is.  I think this may not be that close at Heinz Field.

– Browns over Bengals: Terrell Owens has now started blaming the coaches and says he can’t throw to himself.  It would also help if he didn’t stand there watching last week when Troy Polamalu stepped in front of him for a pick six.  Even though the game is in Cincy, I can’t call this an upset.

– Saints over Ravens: This is a great game and I think most of the country should be pissed that it’s not getting it.  I’ll be curious to see the Ravens defense against Drew Brees.  Given the way Matt Schaub sliced them up on Monday night, I’ll take Brees.  I still think Baltimore is capable of making a Super Bowl run, but their D needs to do much better against the pass.

– Texans over Titans: Houston showed a lot of heart on Monday night.  I think they can carry it over against a team they’ve already destroyed once this year.  The Titans have zero confidence and I can’t see them winning the rest of the year.

– Jaguars over Colts: Upset alert, but is it really? The game is in Indy, but it’s not like the Colts have been themselves this year even at home.  The good news for them is Peyton Manning finally showed up last week.  He’ll need to be on again because Maurice Jones-Drew figures to be in line for a huge day.  I think the Jags have proven over the past month that they deserve to win the AFC South.

– Raiders over Broncos: I’m so embarrassed by the Broncos that I am going with the Raiders as my eliminator selection this week.  I am not confident about the run defense against Darren McFadden.  I am less confident in the offense because Kyle Orton is banged up and that means we might see Tim Tebow.  I am now among those who thinks Tebow should get some snaps, but the Black Hole will be ugly for him.  Oakland won 59-14 in the first meeting.  This one could be a blowout as well.

– Rams over Chiefs: I make this pick regardless of whether Matt Cassel plays or not.  I do think Jamaal Charles could have a big day on the fast turf, but the Rams have played exceptionally well at home this year.  Besides, the NFC West champion HAS to finish better than 7-9, don’t they?  Please?

– Cowboys over Redskins: It seems like a long ago when Washington won the first meeting.  That was back in week one.  A lot has changed since then.  The Redskins are dreadful, and the Cowboys are surging.  Can we smell blowout in Big D?

– Eagles over Giants: This should be a great game as well.  Philly won the first meeting despite three dropped passes in the end zone by their receivers.  Michael Vick has shown that playing on the road doesn’t affect him, and I think the Eagles defense can have success against the Giants’ running game.  This could be closest game of the week, and might decide the NFC East.  I think the Eagles take this one on the road.

– Buccaneers over Lions: Tampa Bay is 8-0 against sub .500 teams and 0-5 against teams over .500.  They will have the opportunity to feast on the Lions Sunday and they also have another game against Carolina.  Their playoff chances are still very much alive if they take care of business.

– Falcons over Seahawks: Atlanta can wrap up the NFC South with a win and a Saints loss.  Seattle has proven to be mediocre at home this year, so the Falcons should roll on paper.  The only reason this game might be close is because it’s Atlanta’s third road game in a row.

– Panthers over Cardinals: This is a really horrible matchup and honestly I don’t know who will win.  I just think the Broncos are the only team that can possibly make John Skelton look serviceable.

– Patriots over Packers: The Sunday night game was supposed to be one of the best of the year, but with Aaron Rodgers’ concussion, this will be a major mismatch.  Johnny Flynn looked like he didn’t belong anywhere near the NFL last week.  Now he goes against Tom Brady.  I think we’ve all seen this move before.  Green Bay’s playoff chances could be in big trouble.

– Bears over Vikings: I am anxious to see an outdoor game in Minnesota.  The Metrodome isn’t usable, so the game will be at the University of Minnesota.  I think the cold temps could make the game very compelling.  That might be about all that’s compelling, because the Bears are much better right now and I see them winning easily.  That is assuming Jay Cutler doesn’t screw it up.

Last Week: 13-3   Season: 108-84

Last night the Colts got week 14 started with a resurgence from Peyton Manning (naturally it didn’t come soon enough to save my fantasy team).  If the Colts can win out, and their schedule is friendly enough that they have a chance, they might end up in the playoffs after all.  I think they still have lots of work to do and next week at Jacksonville is certainly no gimmie, but they’re not out of it yet.  As for Tennessee, they played with effort for the first time in weeks, but that was still not enough.  I’ll ask the strange question: is Jeff Fisher in trouble?  After all, he’s been coaching the team since they were the Houston Oilers.  In any case, Randy Moss is so useless these days he can’t even get on the field.  I think his career might well be over.

As for the rest of the games, doing the picks faster and just going with my gut seems to be working.  With that theme in mind, here we go.

– Bills over Browns: Cleveland has been a major surprise, but unless they win three of their final four, or perhaps all four, Eric Mangini might still be out.  The Bills stunk last week but have actually played well otherwise.  They’ll win a squeaker at home in terrible weather.

– Jets over Dolphins: Miami couldn’t get it done in this matchup at home, so why would they have a chance to do it on the road?  While I think the Jets embarrassed themselves last week, they’ll rebound on their own field against the inconsistent Dolphins.

– Patriots over Bears: If New England repeats what they did last week they aren’t losing to anyone.  The Bears were fortunate to squeak past a pesky Lions club last week.  This will be close, but I think Tom Brady outplays Jay Cutler and that will be the difference.

– Steelers over Bengals: As I’m still alive in the eliminator pool and haven’t used Pittsburgh yet, I’m taking this as a sure fire slam dunk.  The Steelers made a huge statement last week in Baltimore, while the Bungles lived up to their nickname late last week against the Saints.

– Jaguars over Raiders: Jacksonville needs a win to keep their lead in the AFC South (how strange is that?), and I think they’ll get it against a Raiders team that will be much less motivated against a non-division opponent.

– Broncos over Cardinals: Call it the interim coach theory.  The Vikings and Cowboys are 5-1 under interim bosses, and I think the Broncos will play very hard for Eric Studesville on Sunday.  Besides, Arizona is down to their third quarterback, a guy I’ve never heard of named John Skelton.  Dud game of the week for sure.

– Chargers over Chiefs: Even if Matt Cassel plays, I’m not sure how effective he’ll be off his appendectomy.  The Chargers are sure to be desperate now after the egg they laid last week.  San Diego has no margin for error and needs the game a lot more.

– Vikings over Giants: Upset alert.  I think the Giants have not shown the necessary consistency in recent weeks.  I think they’ll play well in this game, but it’s obvious that Minnesota players are glad Brad Childress is gone.  Since this is at Metrodome, I’m going with the upset.

– Buccaneers over Redskins: The Bucs have had hard luck losses against great teams the past two weeks, but they have shown they can compete.  Washington is getting to be beyond dreadful.  Good thing Mike Shanahan will have more than one year to right that ship.

– Lions over Packers: Upset alert #2.  Look, Green Bay has a very good team, they were my preseason Super Bowl pick out of the NFC.  I think they’ll still playoff quality, but I also think the Lions have played very hard every game and they’re bound to see results sooner or later.  Call it a gut feeling.

– Falcons over Panthers: Atlanta rolls by so much this isn’t worth talking about.  I’m saving Atlanta in the eliminator pool for the Georgia Dome rematch in two weeks.

– Saints over Rams: If this was in St. Louis this could be interesting, but as such I think New Orleans will roll very easily at home.  This sets up a terrific NFC South race down the stretch.  This also once again means the NFC West leader will be under .500 because….

– 49ers over Seahawks: I just don’t think Seattle is very good.  San Francisco is talent that is not reflected by their poor record, but I think at home San Francisco finds a way to win this one and perhaps save Mike Singletary’s job.

– Eagles over Cowboys: This should be an entertaining Sunday night game since the Cowboys are much improved, but I think Michael Vick is playing so well that I’m not sure if I would pick the Eagles to lose to any team these days.  Philly wins a thriller on the road.

– Ravens over Texans: Baltimore needs to rebound from last week’s tough loss to the Steelers.  They will against the league’s biggest underachievers.

Last Week: 11-5 Season: 95-81

The last couple of weeks have been much better for yours truly in the picking department.  Two weeks ago, I sat four games under .500 for the season.  Now, two weeks of success have turned that around (If you missed my selections last week I did them on Twitter, with the Thanksgiving holiday and the fact that I spent it in Nebraska with the Buffs there was just no time).

A quick note on last night’s game: Michael Vick certainly deserves to be in contention for MVP.  The way he is playing, I’m not sure any NFC team wants to see the Eagles in the playoffs.  As for Houston, they continue to stumble and let winnable games get away.  I can’t see any way that Gary Kubiak isn’t in trouble at the end of the season.  At any rate, on to this week’s selections, as we go for several upset specials:

– Bills over Vikings: Upset pick #1.  Look, I know the Vikings won last week, but it wasn’t as if they jumped off the stat sheet against the Redskins.  I do think they are playing harder for Leslie Frazier than they did for Brad Childress, but this team still doesn’t feel right from Brett Favre all the way to the defensive side of the ball.  I pick the upset because the Bills are rapidly improving and no one seems to be noticing.  They would have beaten the Steelers last week if not for a dropped ball in the end zone.  The Metrodome is always loud, but if Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to play well and the Bills defense can slow down Adrian Peterson, I think they have more than a puncher’s chance.  I’m going with the upset.

– Browns over Dolphins: Upset pick #2.  Miami played very well last week in Oakland, but they certainly have not been consistent, especially on their home field.  They have just struggled to put back to back solid performances together.  The Browns continue to be among the surprise teams in the league, and I think Peyton Hillis could be in line for another huge day.  Frankly I don’t think this is much of a stretch, I only call it an upset because a vast majority of folks are picking Miami.

– Saints over Bengals: The complete mismatch of the week. a classic case of Super Bowl contender vs league doormat/soap opera.  If I hadn’t already used New Orleans in my eliminator pool, I would do so here without hesitation.  The sad part is the Bengals’ diva receivers probably don’t even regret the disastrous T-Ocho Show.

– Cowboys over Colts: Upset pick #3.  The Colts are simply not the Colts right now.  Injuries have played their part for sure, especially Dallas Clark and Joseph Addai.  Peyton Manning is trying his best to keep it together, but even he is not having a Manning-esque season.  The Cowboys meanwhile look like a new team under Jason Garrett.  Frankly this doesn’t look right because I have a hard time picturing the Colts under .500 and not in the playoffs, but that is rapidly where they are heading.  This is more of a hunch than anything, but I think Dallas wins on the road.

– Jaguars over Titans: Tennessee destroyed the Jags in the first meeting, but a lot has changed since then.  For starters, David Garrard is healthy and Maurice Jones-Drew has looked much more like his old self in recent weeks.  For the Titans, you know things are bad when their best hope is that Kerry Collins MIGHT be healthy enough to start on Sunday.  Chris Johnson was so ineffective last week he was held to five yards, and the Jaguars have a much better rush defense than Houston.  I think Jacksonville wins, and it may not be particularly close.

– Chiefs over Broncos: I gave my in depth assessment of the Broncos earlier in the week.  Frankly, this game is going to get ugly for them.  Arrowhead Stadium has never been kind to Denver (the Broncos are just 2-16 there in December all-time), plus the Chiefs are going to be highly motivated to avenge the 49-29 defeat a few weeks ago.  Kansas City is the best rushing team in the league, and while the Broncos contained Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones in the first meeting, they won’t be able to do it twice.  Kansas City rolls, and perhaps Todd Haley will actually shake Josh McDaniels’ hand this time.

– Chargers over Raiders: San Diego lost the first meeting because of very poor special teams play.  This time, Philip Rivers will have such a good game it won’t come down to special teams.  The Chargers are hitting the gas pedal hard for their annual December run (Philip Rivers has never lost in the month if you can believe that), and they have both momentum and revenge on their side here.  The Raiders went back to looking lost and confused last week against Miami, and this is simply put a bad matchup for them.  The Chargers win this easily.

– Giants over Redskins: Another mismatch on tap.  The G-men had a nice bounce back victory last week and look to get back in the race for the best record in the NFC.  Washington continues to really be a mixed bag, and this just doesn’t bode well for them heading on the road, especially since Mike Shanahan can’t seem to find a healthy running back right now.  I think the Giants win easily behind their strong running game and defense.

– Bears over Lions: This is my eliminator selection for this week (the first time I’ve taken one of these things into December).  When I found out the Lions are starting third string quarterback Drew Stanton, that’s all I need to know.  Shaun Hill was actually doing a capable job leading the offense, but Stanton doesn’t stand a chance against a Julius Peppers-led pass rush that was able to disrupt Michael Vick last week.  The other key for the Bears is Mike Martz has finally discovered his running game.  I think Matt Forte will be more than effective, and the Bears defense will completely shut down Stanton.

– Packers over 49ers: The 49ers are still in playoff contention only because they have the fortune to be part of the worst division in NFL history.  I am genuinely fearful we’ll see a 7-9 champion come out of that division.  The fact that San Francisco is just one game out at 4-7 is downright disturbing.  Despite their playoff chances, I don’t think they have much of a shot at Lambeau Field.   The Packers suffered a tough road loss in Atlanta last week, but they are still very much in play for a division title themselves in a legitimate race.  Green Bay should get this one without too much difficulty.

– Falcons over Buccaneers: It’s hard to believe that is a legitimate big game in the NFC South.  Atlanta won the first meeting at home. but it was much closer than expected.  Tampa Bay is clearly the league’s biggest surprise, but I’m sure they are wishing they were part of the NFC West this year.  New Orleans and Atlanta are both sure playoff teams, so the Buccaneers still have a large hill to climb.  I think this should be a great game, and while I do give Tampa Bay a chance, I think the Falcons are the best team in the NFC right now.  I am starting to think they might be the NFC representative in the Super Bowl.

– Seahawks over Panthers: This game could be the dud of the week.  Carolina did nearly pull the upset last week in Cleveland, and that is one reason I shied away from Seattle for my eliminator pick this week.  The other reason is the Seahawks have been flat awful in recent weeks, especially last week at home against the Chiefs.  The only reason I’m not going with an upset here is because Seattle is tied for the division lead despite their sub.500 record.  Therefore, they have something tangible to play for when Carolina does not.  A Carolina win wouldn’t shock me, but if Seattle has any pride at all they’ll win this one at home.

– Rams over Cardinals: Arizona hit a new low last week when they got clobbered at home on Monday night against San Francisco.  Derek Anderson’s postgame tirade made things worse.  If Arizona continues to be that inept offensively, they may not win another game all season.  St. Louis continues to show improvement, for Sam Bradford had his first 300-yard game in Denver last week.  St. Louis might be the least bad so to speak of the awful NFC West teams.  I think they will win this one rather comfortably.

– Ravens over Steelers: For once the night games are the two best games of the week.  Baltimore won the first meeting between these two teams in Pittsburgh, but that was without Ben Roethlisberger.  Speaking of the Steelers quarterback, he’s trying to debunk rumors of a broken foot this week.  I still stand behind the Ravens as my preseason Super Bowl pick because of their defense and balanced offensive attack.  One thing you can bank on with this matchup is it will be decided by a field goal or less.  I still go with the Ravens on their home field, especially after Pittsburgh’s near miss in Buffalo last week.

– Patriots over Jets: The winner of this game will very likely win the AFC East.  Regardless, it looks like both teams are headed to the playoffs.  The Jets won the first meeting, but the Patriots have been retooled since then, subtracting Randy Moss and adding Deion Branch and Danny Woodhead.  I like New England here for two reasons.  One, they are at home, where they rarely if ever lose especially in a big game.  Second, I still think the Jets can owe a large part of their record to luck.  At some point that is going to run out on them.

Last Week: 4-9 (Yikes!)  Season: 70-74

Last week was terrible for yours truly.  The good news is that one of my four correct picks was my eliminator selection, which means I am still alive there.  Unfortunately, we’re 0-1 to begin things this week.  I’m not really sure what I was thinking picking Miami, because their offense looked lost and confused on Thursday night.  The Bears defense might actually be that good, but I still think they’re winning in spite of Jay Cutler, not because of him.  Now onto very rapid fire picks because the week totally snuck up on me.

– Bills over Bengals: Minor upset alert.  Look, both teams are terrible.  Call this a hunch more than anything.  Marvin Lewis will need a hug by the time this season is over.

– Patriots over Colts: To me this doesn’t have the luster of previous meetings.  I’m actually not so sure this is going to be close, especially since it’s outside in cold weather on grass.

– Jets over Texans: I still say the Jets are the league’s luckiest team, but this week they host the biggest underachievers in football.  I have officially given up on the Texans, for their record always falls well below their talent level.

– Ravens over Panthers: It’s really too bad I’ve already used Baltimore in the eliminator.  Brian St. Pierre under center against one of the league’s best defenses?  Oh boy.

– Jaguars over Browns: Strangely enough this might be one of the best games of the week.  I really like the way David Garrard is playing right now.  If he keeps it up Sunday the Jags can win this battle of surprises.

– Steelers over Raiders: This is not the gimmie it appeared to be a month ago for the Steel Curtain, but at home I think they will find a way to bounce back from last week’s embarrassment.

– Titans over Redskins: Because I would pick the Redskins to lose to any team after what I saw on Monday night.  That would include most of the top 10 teams in college.  I also think Chris Johnson could be in line for a huge day here.

– Chiefs over Cardinals: Kansas City is unbeaten at Arrowhead, and that’s more than enough against one of the league’s doormats.  I think the Chiefs are actually much better than what they showed last week.

– Cowboys over Lions: This is my eliminator selection this week and I’m frankly a little nervous about it, but Detroit never wins on the road and Dallas looked like a legitimate NFL team again last week under new coach Jason Garrett.

– Packers over Vikings: Brett Favre really has to be regretting his decision to come back.  I sense the Packers are about to make a major run and I still think they have an excellent chance to be the number one seed in the NFC playoffs.

– Falcons over Rams: Atlanta is quietly emerging as a Super Bowl contender.  If they truly are in that category, they shouldn’t slip up here, although St. Louis could potentially make this interesting.

– Saints over Seahawks: New Orleans has been very inconsistent this season, but this is part of a very friendly part of the schedule.  The only question here should be Saints’ margin of victory.

– 49ers over Buccaneers: Mini upset alert.  Tampa Bay has been playing well, but I think the 49ers might be starting to get into their groove, and don’t look now but they might still win the putrid NFC West despite a 1-5 start.

– Eagles over Giants: If Michael Vick keeps playing like he did last week, there aren’t many teams that will be able to slow down the Eagles much less beat them.  The Giants have the offense to keep up, but I like Philly on their home field.

– Chargers over Broncos: I picked against Denver last week and they won, so I’m hoping the trend continues.  However, to be honest, this is a tough matchup for the Broncos trying to slow down Philip Rivers.  I will be curious to see if last week’s emergence of the Broncos’ running game was a fluke.

Last week: 7-6 Season: 67-64

I’m off to an 0-1 start this week.  I’m picking the Thursday night games on my Twitter account.  Last night the Falcons made a major statement by beating the Ravens 26-21 in the Georgia Dome.  While I am tempted to rip into the Ravens for their inexplicable use of prevent defense, I instead will give a tip of the cap to Matt Ryan for leading the winning drive for Atlanta in the final minute.  Atlanta proved that they belong in the Super Bowl discussion.  I still think the Ravens do too.  Now, on to the picks.  By the way I am still alive in the eliminator pool thanks to picking the Saints last week (and managing to avoid picking the Patriots as they fell flat on their faces in Cleveland).

– Bills over Lions: Because if the Bills don’t win this game they might very well be looking at 0-16.  They have played hard in recent weeks, and this looks to be a game they might finally be able to win, mainly because Matthew Stafford is once again out for the Lions, already his third injury in his first two seasons.  Detroit has shown they can now compete at home, but I’m still waiting for them to show something away from Ford Field.

– Titans over Dolphins: How will Randy Moss fare in his Titans debut?  Perhaps he’s the only one who truly knows, but the presence of a deep threat in the Titans’ offense can only help Chris Johnson.  Tennessee’s defense has been one of the league’s best against the run this season, and that’s not good news for a Miami team that has seen both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams struggle at times this season.  The Dolphins have still yet to win a home game this season despite outstanding play on the road.

– Browns over Jets: I would say upset alert here, but to be honest I’m not so sure this can really be considered that big of an upset.  I’ll say it again: I’m still not buying the Jets hype.  They were extremely lucky to win last week in Detroit, and likely would have lost had Matthew Stafford not gotten hurt in the fourth quarter.  I think Mark Sanchez is highly overrated and could do a much better job utilizing his weapons on offense.  I also think the Browns may the league’s hottest team, having bumped off the Saints and Patriots the last two games.  Last week I nearly called their win over New England but was too gun shy to pull the trigger.  Not this time.  Peyton Hillis is running well and Colt McCoy doesn’t look like a rookie.  I like the Browns to win this at home.

– Colts over Bengals: This won’t even be a game.  Peyton Manning surely won’t allow the Colts to lose twice in a row, and especially won’t allow them to fall at home in a game where they are a clear favorite.  Despite the injuries around him, he continues to be able to move the offense down the field.  As for Cincy, Carson Palmer no longer looks like an elite quarterback, and the Bengals are so much of a soap opera that I don’t see them beating anyone right now, especially if Chad Ochocinco continues to not catch passes.

– Jaguars over Texans: Please do a favor, next season if I pick the Texans to do anything, please send me a nasty note telling me what an idiot I am.  I really thought that this would finally be the year Houston broke out and became a playoff team, especially when they won their first two games.  The more I watch them however, the more I realize their defense still isn’t very good, and despite all the weapons offensively they continue to woefully underachieve.  Meanwhile David Garrard has played out of his mind this year, and I sense a big breakout game for Maurice Jones-Drew this week.

– Chiefs over Broncos: As much as I want to give my Broncos the benefit of the doubt coming off the bye, I just can’t do it.  I really don’t like the look of this matchup, especially in the wake of leading tackler D.J. Williams getting a DUI last night.  The Chiefs run the ball better than any other team, and pretty soon they will run even better once they realize that Jamaal Charles is twice as effective as Thomas Jones.  The Broncos have been atrocious against the run in each of their past four losses, so from a matchup standpoint this just doesn’t bode well for Denver.  Besides, I have picked the Broncos to win each of their past three games and they have lost them all.  I hope that reversing my pick will also reverse Denver’s fortunes on the field.

– Giants over Cowboys: This should be a popular eliminator pick for anyone, except I have already used the G-men this year.  The Giants are playing as well as anyone in the NFC, thanks to a combination of effective running and passing to go with a defense that is more than doing the job.  The time is long past to take the Giants very seriously as a Super Bowl contender?  Dallas may well play harder for new coach Jason Garrett than they did for Wade Phillips, but it still doesn’t change the fact that Jon Kitna is under center.  That alone makes it impossible to back the Cowboys in a road game right now against anyone.

– Vikings over Bears: Minnesota is a bizarre situation considering that multiple players have anonymously stated that they want Brad Childress fired.  Brett Favre is undoubtedly regretting his decision to come back this season, and the defense still isn’t playing anywhere close to last year’s level.  Despite all that, they managed to get it together and pull off a come from behind win last week against Arizona.  I think regardless of what the players think of Childress, they will still be professionals and show up on Sundays.  For that reason, I pick them to win this game because I think they are much more talented than the Bears at virtually every position.  If the Vikings defense can’t sack and intercept Jay Cutler, than things may indeed be hopeless the rest of the season.

– Buccaneers over Panthers: This is my eliminator selection of the week.  Tampa Bay is rapidly starting to show they may not be a fluke after all.  They came very close to stunning the Falcons in Atlanta last week, and we just saw that same Falcons club prevail against Baltimore last night.  They are quietly running the ball with reasonable effectiveness and are also displaying good defense and special teams play.  My main reason this is the eliminator is because I think Carolina might well be the worst team in football, especially if DeAngelo Williams continues to be out of the lineup due to injury.  Jimmy Clausen is back under center, and the poor rookie still doesn’t seem to get it.  I really feel sorry for Steve Smith, who has to be frustrated that no one on the roster is remotely capable of getting him the ball.

– Cardinals over Seahawks: This is an extremely boring matchup.  Both teams will have poor quarterback play, a lackluster running game, and a subpar defense on display.  I pick to Arizona to win on a gut selection, but I really don’t know as both teams are bad.  Let’s just move on.

– Rams over 49ers: I know the 49ers got the monkey of their back and a got a win before the bye, but something still doesn’t seem right with Mike Singletary’s crew.  I’ll be curious to see if Troy Smith can keep up the surprising play he showed in London, and I’ll also be interested to see how the defense plays against a Rams offense that has been surprisingly effective as the season has progressed.  Sam Bradford has to be considered one of the best rookie prospects in the last five years, and the running game continues to hum along with Steven Jackson.  Call it a hunch, but I think St. Louis steals this one on the road.

– Steelers over Patriots: The Sunday night offering should be a dandy, with two of the best teams squaring off.  Both however are coming off losses in their most recent game, so one of them will have a losing streak by the end of the night.  I think these two teams are so similar on paper in virtually every aspect that it’s tough to isolate a factor that will be the difference in the game.  I think the Steelers run the ball slightly better than New England, and I also like the physicality of their defense.  I think since the game is at Heinz Field, that gives Pittsburgh a slight advantage, but this game may not be decided by much more than a field goal.

– Eagles over Redskins: Talk about two teams moving in opposite directions.  The Eagles looked very impressive in their win over the Colts last week, and as long as Michael Vick continues to play like a legitimate MVP candidate they will be very tough to beat.  The presence of DeSean Jackson also really helps their offense.  The Redskins on the other hand are coming off a bad loss to the Lions, made even worse by Mike Shanahan’s boneheaded decision to insert Rex Grossman under center at the end of the game.  How anyone could think Rex Grossman is a better option than the ball boy, let alone Donovan McNabb, is beyond me.  Reports indicate that Shanahan may have caused a division in the locker room with that move.  If true, Redskins fans should start to expect more losses in the near future.