Reid Fischer's World of Rants

Before we get to the NFL picks for the week, I have to say I am almost more excited about the Saturday slate of college action this weekend than I am about the NFL games.  On Saturday you have Oklahoma-Texas, a game that is WAY more important than that overhyped Ohio State-USC game from a few weeks ago.  OU-Texas might well end up being the game of the year, as both teams have dominated so far this year.  You also have LSU-Florida in Gainesville, which will no doubt be a critical game in the SEC.  My Missouri Tigers will continue to try to put up 50 points each week against Oklahoma State, which has also been averaging 50 points a game this year, so that game should be a very entertaining wild shootout.  I also want to keep an eye on another high powered offense in Texas Tech.  Will they put 70 points up on Nebraska?  The mixture of college and pro action, plus the baseball playoffs and the start of NHL make this a wonderful time on the sports calendar for sure.  Now, on to the NFL picks. 

Last Week: 7-7 (.500)  Season: 45-29 (.608)

– Dolphins over Texans: Miami has defeated the two AFC Championship Game participants from last year, which is no small feat even if the Patriots and Chargers may not be as good as last year’s versions.  Ronnie Brown seems fully recovered from last year’s ACL injury and that is bad news for opponents.  Houston is coming off quite possibly its worst loss in franchise history, losing s 27-10 lead with 4;40 to play last week against the Colts.  Matt Schaub is back at QB for the Texans, but there is simply no immediate recovery from that kind of debacle.  Miami keeps the momentum going on the road.

– Jets over Bengals: New York is coming off a bye, which means Brett Favre had a chance to further get comfortable with the offense.  The Jets are still very much within striking distance in the AFC East, and they know they need to take care of business at home.  Cincinnati has played to its competition thus far this year, which could make this a much closer game than it may appear on paper.  The Bengals have talent despite being 0-5 so the Jets need to be careful, but a hunch New York wins at home, even if its not by a wide margin.

– Colts over Ravens: Logic says i should go with Baltimore.  Their defense is playing great, and they should be able to run the ball against a Colts defense that hasn’t been able to stop the run this year.  Then again, I have to think the Colts gained quite a bit of momentum with their wild comeback win in Houston.  Peyton Manning is still Peyton Manning, and he has always owned Baltimore even in the heyday of the Ravens defense.  Marvin Harrison can’t possibly continue to be invisible can he?  Even if he is in this game, the Colts still have Reggie Wayne.  Indianapolis finally gets its first win at new Lucas Oil Stadium.

– Broncos over Jaguars: This should be a tight low scoring game, much like the Broncos-Bucs game last week.  Jacksonville held the ball over 40 minutes in last year’s meeting, so expect the Jags to run, run, run again.  The Broncos did do much better against the run last week, while the Jags have struggled to run it in every game this year except against the Colts.  Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combined to only rush for 30 yards last week against Pittsburgh, so the Broncos have a chance to continue improvement against the run if they stay disciplined.  Denver will be without tight end Tony Scheffler, so the Broncos will need a big game from Brandon Marshall.  It says here that’s a given after he was shut down last week.  Denver has just enough offense to win this one.

– Saints over Raiders: New Orleans gave one away last week against the Vikings.  The Saints know they have more talent than their 2-3 record indicates, and they may only need to wait one more week before the return of star receiver Marques Colston from a thumb injury.  The Raiders are coming off a bye, and of course their soap opera press conference and firing of Lane Kiffin.  As messed up as the Raiders organization is, a coaching change is not going to help them win this one.  After this one the Saints do not return to the Superdome until Nov. 24, due to a “home” game in London against San Diego at the end of the month.  The Saints know they must get this one, and they will.

– Cardinals over Cowboys: Major upset alert.  The Cowboys have struggled the last two weeks, and if they were playing virtually anyone other than the Bengals they wouldn’t have won last week.  Dallas also has an added distraction this week of more off-field trouble for Pacman Jones which can’t help.  Arizona meanwhile, has shown they have one of the top passing games in the league, and their defense got a huge boost last week with the return of hard hitting safety Adrian Wilson.  The Cardinals have won 8 of their last 10 at home, and it’s not all opposing team fans in the stands anymore.  Arizona wins in a shootout.

– Eagles over 49ers: Philadelphia is also much more talented then their 2-3 record indicates.  The Eagles are coming off two tough losses and now have a road game against a team with potential to surprise.  If the Niners do get a consistent outing from J.T. O’Sullivan, an upset is not out of the question.  If he is erratic, the Eagles offense should be able to do enough to win.  Dononvan McNabb gets receiving threat Kevin Curtis back, which should also open up opportunities for DeSean Jackson.  Philadelphia knows it can’t afford many more slipups in the rugged NFC East.

– Redskins over Rams: Washington is arguably the league’s biggest surprise at 4-1.  The Redskins are coming off back-to-back division road wins against Dallas and Philly, and now have a couple of friendly home games coming up.  The Redskins do have a guard against a trap here though, with the Rams coming off a bye and a coaching change, plus the reinstatement of Marc Bulger at quarterback.  A Rams victory would not come as a complete shock just because of the bye and a chance to regroup, but it is impossible to give them the nod on the road when they haven’t shown anything at all this year.  Washington gets the home win.  

– Bears over Falcons: Atlanta at 3-2 is simply stunning.  Maybe I’m just slow to get on the bandwagon here, but I can’t see Matt Ryan having the success he’s had so far this year against Chicago’s defense.  The Bears defense makes life hell for any quarterback, let alone a rookie.  Then again, Matt Ryan did win at Lambeau last week, which is also rare for a rookie.  Still, if Kyle Orton plays as well as he did last week, the Bears should have enough to win this game.  Chicago can really take control of the NFC North in the early going if they pull off this road victory.  

– Vikings over Lions: Detroit is well in the running for the worst team in the league.  They are frantically trying to trade guys who don’t want to be there before the deadline. (Roy Williams anyone?) They are a complete mess on defense because they haven’t used any high draft picks on that side of the ball in years.  Minnesota is coming off a big road win that may have saved its season.  I really hope you’re not going against Adrian Peterson in your fantasy league this week, because he’s about to have a monster day.  The only question here is how much the Vikings win this game by.  

– Packers over Seahawks: This will be a very ugly game.  Seattle is so banged up on offense that Matt Hasselbeck will still start at quarterback despite not practicing all week due to a shoulder injury.  Half of the receivers are still out as well, and Seattle is coming off a 44-6 blowout loss to the Giants.  Green Bay has lost three in a row, and is also riddled with injuries, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  This is very clearly not Seattle’s year, and the Packers know they can stay in the NFC North race with a road win.  Green Bay wins the dud game of the week.  

– Panthers over Buccaneers: I expect a great game in this one.  Carolina is red hot, and will try to win on the road against a good Bucs defense that is always very tough at home.  I go with Carolina on a hunch because Jake Delhomme has always had good success in his career against Tampa Bay, and the dual receiving threat of Steve Smith and Mushin Muhammad is causing all kinds of trouble for defenses.  Tampa Bay goes back to Jeff Garcia at quarterback, but I don’t think the Bucs have enough offense to keep up.  Carolina wins.  

– Chargers over Patriots: San Diego will be highly motivated in the Sunday nighter for several reasons.  The Chargers have lost three in a row to New England, including two playoff games.  San Diego also is a desperate team at 2-3, and knows they can’t afford a loss at home being that they’re already facing a two game deficit in the AFC West.  The Chargers will also be out for blood after the allowed a winnable game to slip away in Miami.  The Patriots may be 3-1 yes, but they haven’t really proven they are completely their old selves after the Tom Brady injury.  The raucous home crowd under the lights is the sway factor as the Chargers notch the W.  

– Giants over Browns: This has mismatch written all over it.  The Giants are without question the best team in football through the first month, and they will be heavily favored in this one.  It’s a weekly theme, but the Giants continue to prove wrong all the so-called “experts” who picked them to miss the playoffs.  How on Earth could anyone have predicted them to miss the playoffs after taking a look at their soft early schedule?  Even without Plaxico Burress last week, they didn’t skip a beat at all as they destroyed Seattle.  Cleveland for whatever reason has yet to bench Derek Anderson in favor of Brady Quinn, even though the Browns only have a win this year because the Bengals gave it to them.  I hate to say I told you so, but the Browns are not a contender in any way, and continue to prove they were a big time fluke last year.  Think the Monday Night Football crew regrets selecting so many Browns games yet?