Reid Fischer's World of Rants

Looking at the sports world through orange colored glasses

Week Sixteen Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on December 20, 2008

I was almost right last night.  The Jaguars gave the Colts a much better game than most thought they would.  David Garrard played extremely well for three quarters.  Maurice Jones-Drew ran hard.  The Jaguars played with emotion.  In the end though it wasn’t enough.  Garrard made a dumb decision throwing into triple coverage in the fourth quarter, and it resulting in a game winning pick six for the Colts.  Jacksonville had an impressive drive in the final two minutes, but Garrard missed a wide open Reggie Williams in the back of the end zone, and then suffered a sack on the game’s final play.  Jacks0nville played hard, but in the end the Colts showed why they are a playoff team and Jacksonville is not. 

N0w on to the picks, keeping in mind that there are several games where honestly I have no clue how they are going to go. 

Last Week: 11-5 (.687 )  Season: 141-82-1 (.632 )    Season record includes last night’s incorrect pick

– Ravens over Cowboys:  A rare Saturday night game, and this will be a good one.  In many ways this could be a play-in game for the playoffs.  If Baltimore’s loses they could fall behind New England and Miami.  If Dallas loses they fall behind Tampa Bay and possibly Atlanta.  This will be the final game at Texas Stadium, unless the Cowboys were to somehow host the NFC Championship Game in a series of highly unlikely occurances.  Tony Romo is hurting again for Dallas.  So is Marion Barber.  The Baltimore defense is not a team you want to be playing when you’ve got guys hobbled.  The Ravens offense got stymied last week, so this could be another low scoring game.  Dallas needs Terrell Owens to back up his words and come out with a big game.  If he doesn’t the Ravens will be in complete control.  If he does, the Cowboys have a chance.  The Ravens know they control their own destiny.  So do the Cowboys.  This game really could go either way, and the Cowboys will have the emotion of the last game at Texas Stadium, but Baltimore has frankly been more consistent this year, and I think the Ravens are way too good to miss the playoffs.  Baltimore wins. 

– Broncos over Bills:  Try number two for the Broncos to clinch the AFC West.  They host a Bills team with nothing to play for, so this is will be a much better opportunity than a game in San Diego next week.  Denver can’t afford to dig itself a hole early with turnovers, but if the Broncos come out and play they way they are capable, they should be able to hold off the Bills.  I’ll take Jay Cutler over Trent Edwards or J.P. Losman any day.  Edwards will apparently start, but he wasn’t effective before the injury, let alone now.   You can say what you will about the Broncos’ inconsitencies, but a hunch says they will come out firing and if all goes well they should put the Bills away early.   Odd stat of the matchup: 14 of the past 17 meetings have been in Buffalo.  The Broncos don’t get to host Buffalo very much, and I know that means nothing in regrards to Sunday’s game, but it is just interesting.  At any rate, Denver wins the AFC West. 

– Dolphins over Chiefs:  How the Chiefs managed to lose last week is still beyond me.  For any team to blow a 21-3 fourth quarter lead, and then a 21-10 lead in the final 75 seconds, is inexcusable in the NFL.  This makes it impossible for me to pick Kansas City in any scenerio.  Miami has a lot more to play for.  They must win this game to have any shot at the playoffs, and they know that.  Arrowhead will not be anywhere near full, and that will mitigate any advantage Kansas City would have.  Miami wins. 

– Patriots over Cardinals:  It seems so odd to think that New England can continue to roll in games and not end up in the playoffs, but that is what is likely to happen.  The Patriots will be rooting hard for the Cowboys to win on Saturday, because the Patriots only shot to get in is a Ravens loss.  I think the Patriots will not just win this game, but they will blow Arizona out.  The Cardinals will not have Anquan Boldin, they’ll be playing in the cold, they face the west coast team traveling east for an early kick disadvantage, and they are playing a desperate New England team that knows they have to keep winning.  Arizona has clinched the NFC West and knows they are the four seed, so they really have nothing to play for here.  The Patriots win, and will be rooting for Dallas on Saturday night. 

– Seahawks over Jets: UPSET ALERT.  I know this looks crazy, but consider this: the Jets are 0-3 on the west coast this year.  They got bombed in San Diego and lost two inexcusable games to San Francisco and Oakland.  This will be Mike Holmgren’s final home game as Seahawks coach, and I think the players will play hard for him.  I could really see the Jets being complacent heading into this game.  I know Brett Favre is the type of veteran leader that can prevent that, but I sense something out of the ordinary going on in this game.  It’s a reach, but I think Seattle wins. 

– Bengals over Browns:  Dud game of the year without question.  If you live in Ohio, I suggest you find a sports bar because you’re being shut out of just about every good game on Sunday to watch this garbage.  I don’t know who will win and I’m sure any0ne in Ohio cares either at this point.  I pick the Bengals for no reason other than Cleveland has not scored an offensive touchdown in a month, and I figure the Bengals ought to be able to get one with either T.J. Houshmanzadeh or Chad Johnson. 

– Steelers over Titans: Fantastic game, one I won’t be able to see because CBS only has one game this week, and of course I’ll be watching my Broncos.  The winner of this game will get home field advantage in the AFC, and I think Tennessee is picking a really bad time to go into a funk.  The Titans will be without top defensive linemen Kyle Vanden Bosch and Albert Haynesworth, and that means Pittsburgh will be able to run the football.  The Steelers have sustained a brutal schedule, and they have proven time and again this year they can win on the road.  Tennessee has frankly yet to prove it can score points in truly major games to win.  I think the rest of the AFC is about to get the bad news that the road to the Super Bowl will go through Pittsburgh.  Steelers win a close one, yet again on the road. 

– Texans over Raiders: Houston will be a dangerous team next season.  The Texans appear to have finally found their groove offensively, and they have the talent on defense to do some good things next year. It’s too bad the Texans don’t have five more games to get back in the chase because they might be the hottest team in the AFC besides Pittsburgh.   Andre Johnson is a clear top three wideout in the NFL, and he has benefited from Matt Schaub’s return.  Oakland should be nothing more than a doormat for them in this game.  Houston wins easily. 

– Buccaneers over Chargers: Both teams must win to stay alive, so we can look at this as another play-in game of sorts.  Tampa Bay has lost two straight, but knows they have two very winnable home games to finish up.  San Diego must win and needs Denver to lose to force a big game next week.  The Chargers have played much better of late, but they needed some serious Kansas City ineptitude to win last week.  The Buccaneers get Jeff Garcia back under center, and I think they will get a big lift from the home crowd.  Philip Rivers will keep San Diego in the game, but I think the Bucs’ defense is ready for a shutdown effort after getting run over in the running game the past two weeks.  Tampa Bay let one get away last week, and they know they won’t have another chance if they lose this one.  Tampa Bay wins. 

– Eagles over Redskins: This is an interesting game.  The Eagles are another team that is red hot, but even if they win out they may not get in the playoffs.  Brian Westbrook is healthy once again and that means bad news for Eagles opponents down the stretch.  Washington has faded so quickly that Jim Zorn’s job is apparently now in jeopardy, even though three weeks ago he was being hailed as the right guy  in Washington.  The Clinton Portis-Jim Zorn fight seems like it’s adversely affected the Redskins, and it showed in their loss to Cincinnati last week.  Philadelphia wins to keep their hopes alive. 

– Lions over Saints: UPSET ALERT.  I pick for no other reason than there has never been an 0-16 team in NFL history.  I don’t see any reason why that should happen this year.  The Saints lost Reggie Bush for the year, and that hurts their offense.  Detroit is highly motivated, they will win this game at home. 

– Vikings over Falcons: Another good game.  Minnesota has all but clinched the NFC North, and the Falcons need to win to stay alive.  While this game may mean more on paper to Atlanta, I think Minnesota wins this one at home.  Tarvaris Jackson gets another start, and if he plays as well as last week, the Vikings offense could be in for a big day.  Atlanta could play well again in this one, and is a great story this year, but this will be a tough road game for them to win, and I can’t see them pulling this one out. 

– 49ers over Rams: Meaningless game.  Niners are playing hard for Mike Singletary, and the Rams are not for Jim Haslett.  San Francisco wins this one, and it could be by a lot.  Let’s move on to a more meaningful game. 

– Panthers over Giants: Monster game, good move by NBC to move this to Sunday night.  The winner of this game will clinch home field in the NFC playoffs.  I think this game is actually very simple.  The Panthers are the best team in the league right now, and the Giants have lost two straight since the Plaxico Burress fiasco.  Carolina will be able to run the ball no problem.  The Giants may not be able to if Brandon Jacobs doesn’t play.  I also sense another big game from Steve Smith.  Carolina wins. 

– Bears over Packers: The Monday nighter has lost a lot of its luster with the Packers eliminated and the Bears on life support.  If the Vikings win, the Bears are essentially out.  This could be entertaining because of the rivalry factor, but will likely mean nothing.  Green Bay has really fallen off the wagon last few games.  Chicago wins.


One Response to “Week Sixteen Picks”

  1. Doug Baker said

    Go Dallas! But if the Jets and Miami lose the next two weeks the Pats can also get in. It’s been a while since I was sitting around worried whether or not the Patriots would make playoffs. But it sure is better than 2-14…

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