Reid Fischer's World of Rants

Looking at the sports world through orange colored glasses

Week 3 Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on September 24, 2010

Last Week: 9-7   Season: 18-14

The good news is we’re over .500.   This in spite of several big 2-0 surprises (Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Chicago) and several 0-2 duds from teams I expect (still) to make the playoffs, like Dallas and Minnesota.  In any case, on to week 3:

– Patriots over Bills: Do I really have to explain this?  Buffalo is beyond terrible.  The idea of Ryan Fitzpatrick starting on the road in one of the toughest places to win is just ghastly.  The Patriots may end finding themselves in a dogfight for the division this season, but they can beat the Bills with a blindfolded Tom Brady.

– Ravens over Browns: This one wins out over the New England game for my eliminator pool selection this week, but either would be a gimmie.  Baltimore’s defense hasn’t allowed a touchdown yet this year.  The problem last week was Joe Flacco’s four interceptions.  The Browns’ defense isn’t anywhere near Cincinnati’s in terms of talent or really anything, so the question here is margin of victory for the Ravens.  Let’s just move on to the more competitive games.

– Bengals over Panthers: Cincinnati picked up a monster division win last week, and now they get a game against an 0-2 Panthers team that is led by Jimmy Clausen, making his first career start.  I like Clausen, who I have in my keeper league as my QB of the future, but he’s going to have plenty of growing pains.  Ochocinco and T.O. are the headline makers of the Bengals, but Cincy’s defense is pretty good too.  They’re going to make it a long afternoon for Clausen.

– Buccaneers over Steelers: UPSET ALERT.  We missed on our upset pick last week, but just barely as the 49ers almost beat New Orleans on Monday night.  Pittsburgh is starting Charlie Batch at quarterback, and while he has filled in well before, I think the Steelers are due for a letdown after last week’s amazing performance at Tennessee.  Tampa Bay is easily the biggest surprise among the 2-0 teams, and while I’m not sure they can keep it up all season, I think their defense has played exceptionally well.  The game is blacked out in Tampa due to a non-sellout (their second of the year already), and there may be more terrible towels in the seats than Bucs fans, but I think Tampa Bay has something to prove.  I smell the upset in a low scoring game (think 10-7).

– Texans over Cowboys: This is the unquestioned game of the week for me, and that’s I am mad the game won’t be shown in my area.  I think Dallas is a desperate team that is in big trouble, and has been the biggest underachiever of the season.  The pressure on Dallas in this game is enormous considering their division title last year.  Houston meanwhile has jumped out to a 2-0 start and is finally showing the potential we’ve expected of them for the past five years or so.  A 3-0 start would make the Houston fans absolutely delirious, and more importantly it would keep the Texans ahead of the Colts in the AFC South.  Tony Romo should be motivated, but his counterpart Matt Schaub is playing as well as anyone in the league.  I think Dallas is the more desperate team, but that won’t be enough to offset the momentum Houston has right now.  Did I mention the Texans are the home team?  Houston wins a thriller and initiates the Wade Phillips watch in Dallas.

– Colts over Broncos: Denver is in huge trouble even though they’re at home.  Not only are they dealing with Kenny McKinley’s death, but they also will not have Knowshon Moreno (hamstring injury) or right tackle Ryan Harris.  Champ Bailey is also questionable, so the Broncos are beat up in more ways than one.  Peyton Manning always shreds the Broncos, so this doesn’t bode well for the orange and blue, especially without Moreno to help control the clock offensively.  Even if Laurence Maroney is healthy enough to play, I don’t see how the Broncos are going to be able to match Manning and the high powered Colts’ offense.  As much I would like to pick the upset here, I just can’t.  In fact the realistic side of me says this won’t even be close.  Given the Broncos’ upcoming schedule after this game (Titans, Ravens, Jets), this could go in a downward spiral quickly.

– Eagles over Jaguars: I think the Eagles absolutely made the right call in going with Michael Vick over Kevin Kolb.  I said all along that Kolb wasn’t anything other than average.  Vick on the other hand is maybe the hottest QB in the league right now, and he is playing every bit as well as he did five years ago.  With the weapons around him, I think the Eagles offense can be extremely dangerous with Vick at the controls.  The problem is the offensive line, but that shouldn’t be too much of an issue this game given the Jaguars’ mediocrity defensively.  The Jaguars need Maurice Jones-Drew to start playing to his capability, but even if he does, it won’t be enough in this game.  The Eagles will score too many points for Jacksonville to keep up.

– Titans over Giants: Both teams were awful last week, so something has to give.  I think both teams will actually be able to run the ball well, for Chris Johnson surely won’t be held under 35 yards two weeks in the row.  Ahmad Bradshaw meanwhile has taken over as the Giants’ featured back, and I think that bodes well for them given that he ran much better than Brandon Jacobs all of last season, even in short yardage and goal line situations.  I think the Titans defense is better than New York’s, and that is the reason I pick Tennessee to win this game on the road.

– 49ers over Chiefs: This is the game that I’m stuck with in the Fox early slot instead of Cowboys-Texans.  While the Chiefs are a major surprise at 2-0, I still think they have major question marks, not the least of which is Matt Cassel, who has been nothing short of awful in the first two games.  I still don’t understand why Thomas Jones is getting twice as many carries as Jamaal Charles, and I think this is the game where it could burn the Chiefs.  San Francisco has a very underrated defense, and they showed last week the can compete with the likes of the Saints.  I think Mike Singletary’s crew is very hungry for a win, and Arrhowhead isn’t what it used to be.  I still think the 49ers are the NFC West’s best team, and for that reason they can’t start 0-3.

– Raiders over Cardinals: Arizona is the home team, but it’s obvious things aren’t the same without Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin.  Derek Anderson is horrible, and is so woefully inaccurate that even though he has targeted Larry Fitzgerald 27 times, Fitz only has 10 receptions on the season.  This week Fitzgerald will be matched up against Nnamdi Asomugha, who is the best cornerback in the league outside of Darrelle Revis.  Arizona must run the ball to have a chance here, but I think the Raiders actually will run the ball better in this one, given that we’ve seen a resurgence from Darren McFadden.  I like the Raiders on the road in this dud affair.

– Chargers over Seahawks: This one could be interesting, but I think Philip Rivers and company broke out of their inexplicable offensive funk last week, and Seattle’s defense did not exactly play well last week in Denver.   The Seahawks can’t afford to have the interceptions that Matt Hasselbeck threw last week if they want to have any shot to win this game.  I still think Seattle’s overall talent leaves a lot to be desired, and the Chargers are just better, regardless of whether Ryan Mathews is healthy or not.

– Redskins over Rams: Washington suffered a heartbreaking loss last week, and they should rebound nicely against one of the worst teams in the league.  Sam Bradford is playing well, and the Rams have a semblance of an offensive attack, but their defense is well, not good.  I sense a huge game for Donovan McNabb and the entire Redskins offense.  I especially like the prospect of Santana Moss against suspect corners on the fast track of the dome.  St. Louis will not go 0-16, but this is not going to be one of their wins.

– Vikings over Lions: Minnesota will finally get a win, although this still may not be pretty.  Detroit played the Vikings close in both meetings last year, so it might not be a blowout, but it seems like a given that Minnesota’s defense will be able to harass Shaun Hill for several sacks and turnovers.  I think Adrian Peterson will run wild and Brett Favre should make enough plays to lead the Vikings to the victory.  Detroit will be improved before the year is over thanks in large part to the talent of Jahvid Best at tailback, but they must wait for Matthew Stafford’s return to make any real progress.

– Falcons over Saints: Call me crazy on this upset selection given that the game is in the Superdome, but I really like the look of the Falcons’ high powered offense right now.  Matt Ryan is playing exceptionally well, and I think Roddy White is in line for a monster game, especially given that the Saints gave up some big plays to San Francisco last week.  Drew Brees and company will play well themselves, but something tells me the Saints are really going to miss Reggie Bush.  I also think the Saints could be affected by the short week following the Monday night game.  This should be a wildly entertaining game (another reason I’m disgusted to be stuck with SF-KC on Fox), and I think the Falcons will pull off the upset.

– Packers over Bears: I have to admit that Jay Cutler played a terrific game last week in Dallas, and that is a large reason why the Bears upset the Cowboys.  I think Chicago’s defense is also playing surprisingly well, and it will be interesting to see how they stack up against Aaron Rodgers and the high powered Packers’ offense.  I think Green Bay is playing the best of any team in the league right now, especially Rodgers and the passing game.  I think they will be able to score more than enough points to win this game, and I think it might be enough for the game to not be that close.  Green Bay certainly has a top three defensive unit, and I will be really surprised if Cutler doesn’t throw multiple picks on Sunday night against it.

– Dolphins over Jets: Miami’s home opener will be a big one on Monday night.  The Jets are coming off a huge win over New England, but won’t have Darrelle Revis in this one.  This is excellent news for Brandon Marshall, who should now be in line for a monster game.  I also think that as well as Miami’s defense has played in the first two games, Mark Sanchez could be in big trouble.  I still think the Jets’ passing game won’t really take off until Santonio Holmes returns from suspension in week five.  Miami played well in both meetings against the Jets last year, and I don’t see that changing here.  I like Miami at home in the Monday night atmosphere.


One Response to “Week 3 Picks”

  1. SlimSports said

    Yeah I am thinking the Bengals defense will pick off Clausen at least 2 times.

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