Archive for the ‘football’ Category

Week Ten Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on November 7, 2008

Obviously we’re off to a flying start this week after being incorrect on the Thursday night game, but as I’ve said I am ecstatic that I was wrong and the Broncos didn’t lose. Before we get to the picks, bad news for the Broncos today, as Ryan Torain is done for the year with a torn ACL. Is there anyone out there healthy enough to play running back? Anyone? We’ll delve more into the Broncos’ running back quandry next week, but in the meantime, on to the picks.

Last Week: 8-6 (.571) Season: 79-50 (.612)

– Patriots over Bills: This should be a great game. Both teams are coming off close losses, and both are in the midst of a three way tie for the division lead. The Bills will be fired up after losing two division games in a row, but I pick New England mainly because they always seem to win every time I give up on them. Bill Belichick has done maybe the best coaching job of his career this season, and the Patriots should have enough in the tank to win this big division game at home. Trent Edwards has not played well on the road, while Matt Cassel has done more than a serviceable job for the Patriots, especially at Gillette Stadium. In a close game like this, it will be the quarterback play that will make the difference and I actually give the nod to Cassel in this one. Keep in mind these teams meet in Buffalo the last week of the season, and that could be for the AFC East title.

– Dolphins over Seahawks: This definitely has the look of a mismatch. The Dolphins have to qualify as one of the league’s top surprises with a 4-4 record at the midway point following a 1-15 effort last season. Miami’s run defense has done a superb job all season, especially last week when they held the Broncos to just 14 yards rushing. This spells bad news for Seattle, which has to start Seneca Wallace at quarterback for one more week while Matt Hasselbeck recovers from injury. The Dolphins are believing that they are a contender, while the Seahawks are on their way to what is easily the worst season in the Mike Holmgren era. Couple that with the fact Miami is at home, and you have what should be an easy Dolphins victory. This is my eliminator pick this week mainly because the Seahawks have been so atrocious.

– Jets over Rams: New York is also involved in the three way tie for the AFC East lead, and they should be able to enjoy an easy home win in this one. The Rams showed life the first few games of the Jim Haslett era, but they have very quickly come back to Earth. Steven Jackson is benched for the time being because Haslett doesn’t believe he’s giving full effort, and the Rams defense got exposed big time last week in the loss to Arizona. The Jets have quietly won three of their past four games, including a surprising road win last week in Buffalo. Even if Brett Favre goes into his throwing gift interceptions mode, the Rams won’t have enough horses to keep up in this one. If nothing else, the Jets should be able to get a big rushing day from Thomas Jones.

– Ravens over Texans: This game was originally scheduled to be played in week two, but was moved due to Hurricane Ike. Houston has come back to Earth after a scorching three week period after a loss to Minnesota last week and the injury to quarterback Matt Schaub. This plays right into Baltimore’s hands: backup QB (Sage Rosenfels) versus the always tough Ravens defense. Houston still has enough weapons in the passing game that they’ll be able to move the ball some, but the Ravens are quickly proving that they deserve to be in the playoff mix. Baltimore’s defense is quickly regaining its reputation as one of the league’s best, and that has allowed them to be competitive in every game this season, even on the road. The Ravens get the road win to keep Pittsburgh within sight in the AFC North.

– Steelers over Colts: There is a question mark for Pittsburgh at quarterback: will it be Ben Roethlisberger or Byron Leftwich? Either way, the Steelers are in good shape because Willie Parker is back to anchor the running game, and Leftwich really played very well last week in the win over the Redskins. The Colts gave a gutsy performance in their win over New England last week, but Heinz Field is always a tough place to play, and Peyton Manning and company have yet to give two solid performances in a row this year. The Steelers defense will not allow the Colts receivers to get separation, nor will they allow a hobbled Joseph Addai to have a big day. Indianapolis still has more than enough talent to make a run for a playoff spot, but they face too tall of an order in this one. Pittsburgh gets the home win in one of the better games of the week.

– Jaguars over Lions: I have once again fallen into the trap of the Jacksonville Jaguars, but they can’t possibly fall flat on their faces in this one can they? Jacksonville is an awful 3-5 after a surprise loss in Cincinnati last week, which means the Jaguars are at the very least a contender for most disappointing team this season. My preseason AFC Super Bowl pick is really letting me down in more ways than one, but I still believe they are not out of it yet. David Garrard has actually done a superb job despite the record, but the problem for the Jaguars has been their inability to run the ball. That should change against a Detroit defense that has been gashed by everyone. Daunte Culpepper gets the start for the Lions after being signed just last week, so it will be interesting to see how he plays. I think the Jaguars will find a way to win this one on the road, but I have admit an upset is possible if Culpepper plays well. If Jacksonville loses this one, it will prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that my preseason predictions are good for nothing but kindling, but at least that would put me in good company.

– Bears over Titans: I smell an upset here, mainly because the Titans have won a ton of close games this season, and odds are that one of them will go the other way at some point. I do put an asterisk by it in the sense that it is unknown whether Kyle Orton or Rex Grossman will get the start for Chicago. In either case, the Bears will be extremely fired up for this one at Soldier Field, especially since they have an opportunity to extend their lead in the NFC North. Tennessee has played great defensively, but Chicago’s defense has also forced a ton of turnovers. If the Bears can win the turnover battle, which is not farfetched by any means as aggressive as their defense is, they will have an opportunity to give their offense a short field, which could easily make the difference in the game. In typcial Tennessee fashion, the game will once again come down to the wire, but a hunch says the Soldier Field crowd sways the Bears to their biggest win of the year.

– Panthers over Raiders: This will be one of the blowouts of the week. Carolina is fresh off a bye, and their offense is really clicking with Jake Delhomme and company putting up points. Oakland is in shambles (what else is new) after releasing big ticket free agent signee DeAngleo Hall and getting shut out at home last week by Atlanta. The Panthers have too many weapons for the Raiders to contain, especially now that Hall is gone. Carolina is in position for a bye right now in the NFC playoff picture, and they know they have to keep winning to maintain it. If I hadn’t already used the Panthers in my eliminator pool, I would be sure to use them here. Carolina wins big.

– Chargers over Chiefs: San Diego is also coming off a bye, and is still very much in play in the AFC West despite a 3-5 record. Even after Denver’s win over Cleveland last night, the Chargers are just a game and a half back in the division with a very friendly schedule awaiting down the stretch. San Diego for whatever reason has yet to consistently put anything together, but they have now had the bye week to figure it out. They do get a Chiefs team that has really shown improvement and signs of life the last two games, but Kansas City has still not been able to win. The Chiefs may well win another game or two before the season is finished, but it won’t come here. San Diego wins easily at home to kick off their post-bye schedule.

– Vikings over Packers: I really went back and forth on this one, and in the end you might as well flip a coin. This is a really intense division rivalry, and both teams have been up and down this season. Both teams have experienced success offensively in recent weeks, and both have outstanding running games, so this has the potential to be a shootout. The Packers won the first meeting at Lambeau Field in week one, but that was with Tarvaris Jackson under center for Minnesota. Gus Frerotte has done an admirable job in the that role for the Vikings, and they have a lot of momentum after a home win against Houston last week. The Metrodome will be rocking for this one, and that will ultimately prove to be the difference in this one as Minnesota jumps back into the NFC North race.

– Falcons over Saints: This game has the potential to be a shootout too. New Orleans will be without Reggie Bush for one more week, which means the onus will be on Drew Brees and the passing game to move the ball, which they have been very effective doing all year. The Saints are also coming off a bye, which has helped them recover from the London trip. The Falcons have been a tremendous surprise at 5-3, and Matt Ryan is playing not only well for a rookie, but he has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league this season (and a borderline must start in fantasy the way he keeps improving). Atlanta will have no trouble scoring points at home in the Georgia Dome, and they will pull out a narrow win at home in what should be a very entertaining game.

– Eagles over Giants: The Sunday night game will be dynamite. Not only is this one of the most intense rivalries in football, but this game matches two of the top teams in the NFL. The Eagles are right in the thick of the NFC race even though they’ve battled numerous injuries at virtually every position. Now that they are starting to get healthy, they are starting to show how good they can be. The Giants are of course the defending champs and have been very tough on the road, including their win two weeks ago in Pittsburgh. The Giants have to absolutely be considered at the very least in the top 2 or 3 teams in the league right now, and probably are the top team considering they are the defending champs, but a hunch says Philadelphia will get a tremendous lift from a raucous crowd that is still on cloud nine from the Phillies’ World Series victory. Philadelphia wins what could out to be one of the best games of the season, not just the week. Regardless of how this one turns out, both teams will be right in the thick of everything at the end.

– Cardinals over 49ers: It has to be a sign of the apocalypse to see the Arizona Cardinals hosting a Monday night game doesn’t it? Or is it more of a shock that they have a commanding lead in the NFC West, and should pummel poor San Francisco in this one? The 49ers have had the bye week to regroup, and they do have one of the league’s top running backs in Frank Gore, but that’s about all they have going for them. No doubt interim coach Mike Singletary is intense, but no amount of intensity will be able to help the Niners stop Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin from running wild. Remember when it was a question whether it would be Kurt Warner or Matt Leinart under center for the Cardinals this year? That seems like ancient history. The Cardinals with a win would be 6-3 and clearly on track to host a playoff game, no that would have to be a sign of the apocalypse. Arizona wins this one so easily that viewers will flip away by the third quarter.

BYE: Bengals, Cowboys, Redskins, Buccaneers – these are the last of the byes this season

Posted in football | Tagged: National Football League, NFL, picks | Leave a Comment »

I’m Glad I was Wrong

Posted by mizzou1028 on November 7, 2008

I wouldn’t believe it if I didn’t see it with my own eyes. I honestly didn’t believe the Broncos had much of a chance to win in Cleveland on a short week going into the game, let alone when they trailed 23-10 in the second half, missing ALL of their tailbacks due to injury, struggling to get pressure on Brady Quinn, and reverting to giving up big plays in the running game. What resulted is one of most exciting games I have ever seen, maybe exciting enough to go in the top five, but for sure in the top ten. I’m not sure what I’m most excited about. I could give accolades to Jay Cutler for his 447 yard, three touchdown effort that ranks third in Broncos history. (Trivia question: can you name the two quarterbacks who posted the highest single game yardage efforts? Hint: neither one is John Elway. The answer is at the end). I could praise Eddie Royal for his 164 yard effort, including a 93 yard TD that completely changed the momentum, that resulted in a Broncos rookie record for reception yards in a game. I could talk about Brandon Marshall, who stepped big with the clinching touchdown, or Tony Scheffler, who had 92 yards receiving despite playing with a groin so sore he didn’t think he was going to play when conducting his own pregame interview on the Broncos radio network. There’s also Ryan Torain, who ran hard before injuring his knee in the second quarter, and even Selvin Young, who tried so hard to tough it out when he was literally the last running back standing, even though he himself was nursing a groin injury such that Mike Shanahan was hoping not to have to use him. Even the much maligned defense stepped up when it mattered, forcing a key fourth quarter fumble and coming up with the fourth down stop to preserve the win at the end.

Truth is, everyone mentioned played a critical role in this win for the Broncos. I realize that sounds cliche, but it’s the only way they could have come back and won a game where everything seemed lost. How many teams do you know that would be even remotely effective offensively when they’re down to their fifth running back? On that note, let’s not forget about Peyton Hillis, who kept the game alive with a critical conversion on fourth and 1 with the Broncos trailing 30-27 and time rapidly ticking away. This is type of clutch play the Broncos have been missing the past few weeks. It is this type of unsung play, which won’t get a lot of notice in the box score, that separates winners from losers. A key play for sure, one that the Broncos couldn’t have won without, and one that wouldn’t have had a chance to happen at all if not for a real gutsy play much earlier in the game.

It is amazing in a way that the Broncos were able to keep it together. They had lost four of their past five, they continued to lose guys to injury, they had no running backs left, they were down by 13 on the road, and they had no momentum against a Browns team that was starting to look like it was getting new life on a lost season. Even looking at the body language of the players on the sideline, it didn’t look like the Broncos were going to come back. Somehow, the defense was able to force a punt, a victory in itself for a unit that was missing several of its top players and had struggled to stop the Browns most of the night. That’s when Jay Cutler proved that he has the gusto to be a great quarterback in the NFL. The Broncos faced the prospect of starting their drive at their own 7 yard line (Does this evoke memories of The Drive anyone?). Most teams are scared to take a shot down the field when they’re backed up that deep, but Cutler took the chance. Despite a dropback that practically took him to his own goal line, he launched a perfect strike down the sideline to Royal, who caught it perfect stride, left a gambling defensive back grasping for air, and was off to the races. This play changed the momentum so dramatically that the body language on each respective sideline changed. The Browns players were the ones that had looks of shock of despair, and the Broncos players were rejuvenated, and it showed in their play the rest of the night. Plays like the 93 yard touchdown pass from Cutler to Royal can define a season, and in this case it may have quite literally saved the Broncos season in more ways than one.

It should be noted that not only did Cutler show a lot of guts to make that throw in that situation and field position, but Mike Shanahan and his staff should be credited for calling that play in that situation. Maybe they would have run the ball if Torain or Young was healthy enough to do so, and we’ll probably never know for sure, but in any case, Shanahan deserves credit for rolling the dice and dialing deep when most coaches would go the safe route. There are a lot of Broncos fans calling for Shanahan’s head, mainly because the Broncos have won just one playoff game since John Elway’s retirement. I have long argued that the Broncos would never have won a Super Bowl in the first place if not for Shanahan, and it is easy to forget that he has won 150 career games, no small achievement. If Shanahan were to leave the Broncos, odds are your team would be among the first in line to hire him. It is easy to forget that Shanahan is not the one on the field turning it over or getting beat deep. I challenge you to tell me another coach that could have kept his team together in a situation like the Broncos had in Cleveland, and of course there are others, but tell me someone out there and available who would be better than Shanahan. The answer is no one.

I believe the Broncos saw a very impressive glimpse into their future tonight. When clicking, the offense is as good as any in the NFL right now, and that’s with most of the key players having three years or less experience in the league. As they continue to play together and mature together, things will only get better. Jay Cutler is indeed the real deal, having shown ability to lead his team from behind. A win like this not only gives a team hope, but it gives them confidence even when things aren’t going well. Frankly, things didn’t go well tonight for Denver for the most part for three quarters, but when push came to shove, they managed to pull a win out of nowhere. Now, they have a game and a half lead over San Diego in the AFC West, and suddenly the next game at Atlanta doesn’t appear to be the guaranteed loss it seemed to be 24 hours ago. (Side note: the NFL Network’s Adam Schefter told us tonight that Champ Bailey will play against Atlanta. If that’s true, it will be another huge boost for the Broncos). Suddenly, the Broncos actually winning the AFC West with an actual winning record doesn’t seem so impossible. Sure, the defense could still use some work, but they stepped up when it counted, and all things considered continue to show improvement. Let’s not forget also the offensive line has only allowed five sacks this year, which is truly amazing especially with a rookie left tackle (Ryan Clady) who has been nothing less than terrific and doesn’t get a lot of press for it. It’s really amazing how one game can really change your picture on things. There is still obviously a lot of season left, but one thing is for sure: the Broncos are not left for dead yet, and will be a major player in the AFC race.

Trivia answer: Jake Plummer (499 yards vs. Atlanta in 2004), and Gus Frerrote (462 yards vs. San Diego in 2000).

Posted in football | Tagged: Denver Broncos, Eddie Royal, Jay Cutler, Mike Shanahan, National Football League, NFL | Leave a Comment »

Broncos Football on a THURSDAY???

Posted by mizzou1028 on November 6, 2008

I have to admit I can never get used to it when the Broncos, or any other NFL team, plays a Thursday game. This is the fourth consecutive year the Broncos have drawn a Thursday contest (including two Thanksgiving Day games) and I still can’t get used to it. I actually applaud the concept of getting more games on television for the fans, although I’m not sure NFL Network counts as a national broadcast at this point due to the fact numerous households still don’t get the channel. At any rate, the Broncos face a very difficult task for numerous reasons: the short week, the fact they’re coming off a tough loss, the numerous injuries on both sides of the ball, and the travel on such a short timetable (to the eastern time zone to boot, where no pacific or mountain time zone team has won a game this season). If that’s not enough, they get what is sure to be a raucous crowd at Cleveland Browns Stadium that will be excited for the debut of Brady Quinn.

My pick for the game is coming in a moment, but first a reminder that this is the first of a slate of Thursday NFL games every week for the rest of the season, so remember this if you are in an eliminator pool, have a fantasy lineup that needs to be set before the first kick, or even if you have players that may be involved in the game that you need to make a decision on. In this space, I will offer a pick for each Thursday game before it kicks off, and then will follow up with the rest of the picks on Friday as normal. So remember to look for the rest of my picks for week 10 on Friday, along with a recap of the Broncos and Browns.

This is a very difficult game to pick because both teams are a mess. The Broncos have no choice but to start Ryan Torain at tailback because no one else is left. Andre Hall and Michael Pittman were placed on injured reserve this week, and Selvin Young won’t be 100 percent even if he plays. The coaches do love Torain, but he didn’t look up to speed against Miami. The Broncos also will likely still be without Tony Scheffler, who will take the extended time before the next game to try and get back in the lineup. His absence has had a real adverse effect on the passing game. Meanwhile, Denver’s defense took another hit with the news that leading tackler D.J. Williams will be out at least a month with a torn MCL. This means no Williams and no Bailey (either of them). Not to mention, the Broncos are sitting on a league worst minus 11 turnover margin in their past five games. It can be argued that the Broncos are leading their division, but that carries no weight whatsoever for a team that has lost four of its past five games. It actually came as a surprise to me to read today that the Broncos are just 20-20 in their past 40 games, and that frankly isn’t acceptable for us in Broncos Country.

The Browns have finally made the long overdue decision to yank Derek Anderson in favor of Brady Quinn. This is a move I have advocated for since the offseason, when Cleveland made the surprising decision to offer Anderson a 3 year $24 million contract, even though they had made a big investment in Quinn by making him their first round pick in 2007. This season Anderson has been anything but great, ranking dead last among starting quarterbacks with a terrible 49.8 completion percentage. While Anderson has been dreadful at times, Quinn is of course an unknown, having made just one appearance in mop up duty last year. The timing of the decision to make the move to Quinn with such a short week to prepare also seems a little odd. The Browns are coming off a loss to Baltimore in which they blew a 27-13 second half lead and watched the Ravens score 20 unanswered points to end the game. Cleveland’s defense has struggled against the run this year, having given up 154 yards to rookie Ray Rice last week, allowing him to average 7.3 yards a carry. The Browns’ 3-5 start is not what they were hoping for after knocking on the door to the playoff party last season.

Sometimes when you have two struggling teams going at it, it actually turns out to be a good game, and that could be the case here. I really hope I’m wrong, but I think this game shapes up to be bad news for the Broncos in more ways than one. I do think the Broncos will be able to run better than they did against Miami, and I also think Jay Cutler and the passing game will give a better effort. I think the deciding factor will be the play of Quinn, and if he doesn’t panic in his first start, he will be guaranteed to find Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow open all night with the Broncos missing their top defenders. Edwards against Dre’ Bly in particular makes me really nervous, with Edwards looking like he’s about to break out for a big game the way his numbers have been climbing the past few weeks. If the Broncos can rattle Quinn early and maybe even force an early turnover, which they haven’t done all year, then they will be able to stay in the game and maybe even control it. If they can’t, it will be another long night for the orange and blue. I really want to pick the Broncos to bounce back, but the rational side of me tells me I can’t. The short week, the trip east, the missing bodies, the lack of confidence, it will be too much for the Broncos to overcome.

The Pick: Cleveland 27 Denver 17

I really hope I’m wrong…….

Posted in football | Tagged: Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, National Football League, NFL, picks | 4 Comments »

We’re Still Leading the AFC West HOW?

Posted by mizzou1028 on November 3, 2008

I’m not really sure where to start in explaining the Broncos’ loss to Miami. For starters it seems easy to point the finger at the officiating crew for wiping out Brandon Marshall’s 77 yard touchdown on an absolutely atrocious offensive pass interference call, but that is not why the Broncos lost this game. If not that. then on the surface it would seem really easy to point the finger at the defense, which was missing the Bailey brothers and also D.J. Williams to injury later in the game. After all, the run defense in particular has been atrocious all year, allowing well over 5 yards a carry coming into the game, and the defense has given up a ton of big plays all year. I am convinced however that this one is not on the defense in any way. Consider:

– The Broncos were the first team to completely shut down Miami’s “Wildcat” formation, holding the Dolphins to -6 yards on just four plays where they used the trick formation. (For those unfamiliar, quarterback Chad Pennington lines up as a wide receiver and running back Ronnie Brown takes the direct snap, looking to keep it, hand off to another back, or throw. The Dolphins destroyed New England and had great success against other teams using the formation).

– The Broncos allowed Miami to average just 2.6 yards per rush overall and held the Dolphins to just 75 yards for the game, a significant improvement for the Broncos defense. If you throw out one 30 yard run by Brown, the Broncos held Miami to just 45 yards on their other 28 carries, an average of just 1.6 yards a carry.

– The Dolphins coverted just 4 of 14 third downs against the Broncos

– The Broncos got great pressure on Chad Pennington, recording three sacks and finally getting an interception

– Denver held Miami without an offensive touchdown for the first 57 minutes of the game

Now, was this a perfect effort on defense? Of course not. But when you consider how many key players the Broncos were missing (especially the league’s top corner, Champ Bailey), their defensive effort is truly to be commended. This was particularly true in the first half, when the Broncos, as they have done numerous times this year, held Miami to field goals even when they were put in awful position.

No, this one is squarely on the offense, where there are numerous things to point to here:

– The running game was AWFUL! If it weren’t for a seven yard scamper by Andre Hall in garbage time on the last drive, the Broncos would have set a franchise record for fewest rushing yards in a game. They finished with just 14 yards on 12 carries, good for a really lousy 1.2 yards per attempt (7 yards on 11 carries if you eliminate the meaningless carry by Hall), which is one yard better than the team record low set in 1972. Granted, Miami is 9th in the NFL in run defense, but this effort by the Broncos’ ground game was particularly embarrassing. It is simply not possible to win in the NFL without some semblance of a running game, it cannot be done.

– Perhaps partially due to the embarrassing lack of a running game, Brandon Marshall was held to just two catches for 27 yards. This simply can’t happen. I do give Miami a ton of credit for great coverage on him, but Marshall has the size and speed to have an advantage on most corners in the league. In his defense, Marshall did have the big play wiped out by the bogus penalty, and he did get the ball thrown to him plenty, but he still was a non-factor in the offense.

– Jay Cutler did not have a good day. Yes, he threw for 307 yards and two touchdowns, but too often he seemed like he was forcing throws. It never seemed like he was able to look off any of the secondary to divert attention from where he was planning to throw the ball. He also threw three very costly interceptions, including one the play after the long touchdown to Marshall was called back and another that was returned for a touchdown.

– The Broncos were guilty of 10 penalties for 81 yards, including two illegal formation calls.

While the offense has been frustrating in general really for the last five games, it is the turnovers that are the most maddening. The Broncos are DEAD LAST in the NFL in turnover margin at -11, which goes a long way toward explaining why they’ve lost four of their last five games. Even though the defense finally got a pick today, all three of Cutler’s picks were extremely costly. His first one on the third play of the game was a killer that gave Miami immediate momentum, his second was returned for a touchdown, and his third came on the play after Marshall’s lost touchdown when he was clearly trying to force a play out of frustration, and led to a Dolphins field goal. The three interceptions led to 13 Miami points, and it could have easily have been more if not for a great effort by the defense. That is why i say the D cannot be blamed for this one.

Sometimes football is a very simple game: you turn the ball over more than the other team you get beat. While turnovers don’t always tell the whole story, it’s usually a great place to start if you’re trying to figure out why someone won a particular game. It shouldn’t come as any surprise for example, that the Tennessee Titans lead the NFL in turnover ratio at +10, and they are the only undefeated team in the league. As I say it’s not a guarantee that winning the turnover battle will always lead to success (Kansas City is third in the NFL at +7), but more often than that the great teams will at the very least not give the ball away, even if they aren’t taking it away. Giving the other team extra opportunities is never a good recipe for success in any sport. The Broncos were excellent in this area in the first three games when they were the talk of the league, and now that they are giving the ball away left and right, it should not come as a shock that it is leading to losses.

Yes, the Broncos did get screwed when Marshall’s touchdown catch got wiped out because of offensive interference, but bad calls are part of the game. I don’t think there is any question it was a terrible call, particularly since the flag did not get thrown until after Marshall was off to the races, but the Broncos still had chances to win the game. If Cutler had not thrown a pick on the next play, the defense would not have been backed to the wall trying to make a stop. I said after the Broncos benefited from the Ed Hochuli call against San Diego that the Chargers still had a chance to stop them and the Broncos shouldn’t apologize for it. It goes both ways too, the Dolphins shouldn’t apologize for getting lucky on a bad call. It is the Broncos who should apologize for not running the ball and for committing turnovers at inopportune times, that is what cost them this game, not a blown call.

Somehow the Broncos are still in sole possession of first place in the AFC West with a 4-4 record. They should be thanking their lucky stars they are in a bad division, because that’s the only thing keeping them afloat right now. If San Diego fails to get it together, will we actually see an under .500 division champion in the AFC West? For numerous reasons I hope not. Regardless of the division lead, the Broncos need to at least play like they deserve to be in that spot, starting with Thursday’s tough game in Cleveland.

Posted in football | Tagged: Denver Broncos, National Football League, NFL | Leave a Comment »

Week Eight Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on October 24, 2008

Much needed bye week for my Broncos, who will need it to get everyone healthy they can. I’ve run out of things to say after the embarrassment in New England, so let’s get right to the picks.

Last Week: 10-4 (.714) Season: 63-39 (.617)

– Bills over Dolphins: Buffalo showed it is for real with a huge win last week against San Diego. Trent Edwards has done a solid job managing the game for the Bills, and their young players really seem to play well together. The Bills already have a road win over Jacksonville on their resume in addition to the win over the Chargers thanks also to their outstanding defense. They shouldn’t have much trouble containing Miami’s offense on the road, even though the Dolphins have shown they can score at times this year. Chad Pennington has had trouble against aggressive defenses and Buffalo is certainly in that category. Miami will keep it close for awhile but the Bills will ultimately win this one.

– Patriots over Rams: Who are the real Patriots? Are they the team that destroyed Denver, or the one that imploded against San Diego? The real answer probably lies somewhere in the middle, which means that in typical New England fashion they will probably find a way to make the playoffs. It is interesting to note that Matt Cassel is starting his career in similar fashion to the way Tom Brady started his. Brady took over early in the 2001 season for an injured Drew Bledsoe and struggled early in the year before rounding into form about midway through. Cassel turned in his best performance by far last week against the Broncos, and faces a favorable matchup this week as well. The Rams have won two in a row, and are clearly a different team with Jim Haslett running things, but going on the road and winning in one of the league’s toughest venues is too much to ask for them. Patriots win easily.

– Jets over Chiefs: This might have to go down as the most sure fire pick in NFL history. The line on this game is 13, and I’m frankly shocked it isn’t much higher. I’m so shocked in fact, that I’m downright giddy that I picked this weekend to go to Vegas, which means I can make easy money on this game. The Chiefs will start Tyler Thigpen at quarterback, which is bad news for KC automatically because he can’t play worth a lick. Larry Johnson has had his team ordered suspension extended another game, which means the Chiefs will also have no running game to speak of. The Chiefs’ defense has also been horrible, or didn’t you see the Titans rush for 332 yards at Arrowhead last week? (Check out the hole on LenDale White’s 80 yard touchdown run, looking at that you’d be nuts not to start every Jet you have in fantasy this week, especially Thomas Jones). Throw in the fact that the Jets are hopping mad they gave one away at Oakland last week, and you have a guaranteed Jets blowout. Needless to say this is my selection in second chance eliminator pool this week.

– Ravens over Raiders: Baltimore’s defense returned to form last week in Miami, where they completely shut down Miami’s trick formations, and even scored a touchdown, which had always been their trademark. The Raiders snuck away with a win last week thanks to the Jets’ inability to capitalize, but they’re going to find it absolutely impossible to move the ball in any way against Baltimore. The Raiders can’t run the ball consistently and JaMarcus Russell will have trouble finding throwing lanes against Baltimore’s ballhawking secondary. The Ravens have been stellar at home this year, with the only loss coming at the end against undefeated Tennessee. Willis McGahee is finally healthy, which means the Ravens will have no trouble running the ball effectively. This will be trademark Baltimore Ravens game, where they win with running and defense. Ravens by at least two touchdowns in this one.

– Texans over Bengals: Houston has won two in a row, and they’re in the midst of a stretch where five of six games are at Reliant Stadium. Matt Schaub had a field day against Detroit last week, and that will continue against a Bengals defense that hasn’t come close to stopping anyone. Andre Johnson is continuing to emerge as one of the league’s top receiving threats and the Texans have also found a running game with Steve Slaton. Cincinnati kept it close for three quarters against Pittsburgh last week, but they wore down big time at the end. The Bengals defense is on the field way too much because the offense can’t move the ball with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. You do have to figure the Bengals have too much talent not to get a win at some point this season, but I would be highly surprised if it came here. The Texans keep it rolling at home.

– Jaguars over Browns: Jacksonville is fresh off a bye week, and that is bad news for the Browns. The Jaguars in many ways are fortunate to be 3-3, but they are now entering the easier part of their schedule and are primed to make a move. Jacksonville rediscovered its running game against the Broncos before the bye with Maurice Jones-Drew finally breaking out for a big day (to be fair that could be more Denver’s defense). The Browns surrendered over 200 yards on the ground to Washington last week, so the Jaguars should have a big day on the ground as well. Derek Anderson reverted to form in a bad way against the Redskins, completing just 14 of 37 passes for 136 yards. That does not bode well for Cleveland against Jacksonville’s excellent defense. Is the Brady Quinn watch back on? It might be if Anderson has another bad day. Jacksonville should win this one fairly easily.

– Steelers over Giants: This is quite possibly the game of the year to this point, let alone the game of the week. I went back and forth on this so much I’ve been wondering if I could get away with picking a tie. Of course that would be the ultimate copout, so I went with the home team because the Steelers always rise to the occasion for a big game at Heinz Field. The Giants are an outstanding road team which doesn’t really make that a cinch, but they did implode in Cleveland two weeks ago and slogged their way to an ugly win last week against San Francisco. Eli Manning is arguably playing better than his brother Peyton this year, so that has really helped the Giants, but Pittsburgh is getting great play from seemingly anyone in the lineup. Last week Mewelde Moore stepped in for Willie Parker and ran down Cincinnati’s throat (of course it was the Bengals). This will be a fantastic game that should go down to the wire, but again the home field edge will make the difference for Pittsburgh. Incidentally, did you see the phenomenal block by Hines Ward on Cincinnati’s Keith Rivers? Every receiver in the league should be required to watch that video to see how they should block in the running game, as well as to learn there is more to playing wide receiver than catching the ball. Obviously it’s unfortunate that Rivers got injured on the play, and for the record we never advocate injury here, but it is still an example of why Hines Ward is one of the great teammates in the league, willing to sell out even when he isn’t the focal point of the play.

– Chargers over Saints: This game will be played in London, which is ridiculous from the Saints’ perspective because they are giving up the home game, even after they had their entire home slate wiped out in 2005 due to Hurricane Katrina. This puts the Saints at a disadvantage in so many ways, not the least of which is that their division rivals get an extra home game, plus don’t have to deal with a midseason overseas trip. What’s worse for the Saints is they will be without Reggie Bush, who had arthroscopic surgery on his knee and will miss 2-4 weeks. New Orleans did get Marques Colston back last week, but he was ineffective and was held without a catch. San Diego also has its own issues after the loss to Buffalo, and they are still trying to get LaDainian Tomlinson on track. The fact that the Chargers went straight to London from Buffalo also puts them at a travel disadvantage along with the Saints. All things considered, this is not looking at all like the showcase game the league hoped it would be when they picked it for the London matchup. Oh, and both teams are extremely desperate for a win to stay in their respective races. A hunch says San Diego gets it together and wins a close one.

– Cowboys over Buccaneeers: I’m having a hard time jumping off the Cowboys bandwagon completely for several reasons, not the least of which is that I picked them to win the Super Bowl. That being said, Dallas is clearly dysfunctional, as proven by their loss to the Rams (which I correctly predicted, but we don’t generally brag here). Brad Johnson will start at quarterback, but the fact that the entire team has actually been aware of it all week may help. I really thought the Tony Romo will he or won’t he play situation last week was a real distraction for the team. It will still be interesting to see how Roy Williams fits into the offense or if T.O. can get back on track after four subpar games in a row. The Buccanneers are playing extremely well, and their defense will certainly pose a difficult challenge for Dallas, and the Bucs’ offense has been better with Jeff Garcia. All that being said, Dallas knows their entire season may well hinge on this game, with road games against the Giants and Redskins looming. One would think that type of desperation should be enough to give Dallas a jolt needed to get a much needed home win, unless of course the soap opera season is already beyond saving.

– Eagles over Falcons: Philadelphia is coming off a much needed bye, which allowed them to get Brian Westbrook and others healthy. They’ll need Westbrook against a Falcons team that is arguably the league’s biggest surprise at 4-2. Matt Ryan is playing as well as any rookie quarterback has in recent memory, and the Falcons are starting to believe they can win, even getting a road win at Lambeau Field in week five. This will certainly be a more difficult road test though with the notoriously hostile Philly fans, especially against an Eagles offense that has its full complement of players for the first time in awhile. Philadelphia is already looking up at the Giants and Redskins, plus they may have an opportunity to distance themselves from the Cowboys. Home cooking and the return of Westbrook lifts the Eagles to the win, but it wouldn’t be surprising if this game is competitive into the fourth quarter.

– Redskins over Lions: Washington snuck away with one last week against the Browns, benefiting from a late missed field goal by Cleveland. Still, the Redskins are looking like a playoff team again this year, particularly with Clinton Portis running wild. Jason Campbell has shown so far that he has been able to make good decisions for the most part. Detroit meanwhile actually showed some spunk last week, nearly erasing a 28-0 deficit to Houston and making things interesting at the end. I believe the Redskins will ultimately win, but something does smell fishy here. The Lions are due for a good performance at home, where they have not played well this year. Washington is in a potential trap situation with a Monday night game against Pittsburgh on the horizon, followed by a string of big division games. I say Washington will win, but an upset is not out of the question here.

– Panthers over Cardinals: This is a very intriguing game. Carolina looked like their old selves last week as they rolled over the Saints, while Arizona is coming off a bye following a dramatic win over Dallas. Jake Delhomme had one of his best games last week, and the entire offense looks like it is benefiting big time from the return of Mushin Muhammad, who returned after three years with the Bears. The Carolina running game also has nice balance with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The Cardinals have also been very stellar offensively, with Kurt Warner having a huge year so far. The Cardinals also benefit from the return of star receiver Anquan Boldin, who missed several games after getting his bell rung in week four against the Jets. Still, Carolina is extremely difficult to beat at home, and Arizona hasn’t really proven they can win away from the desert yet. The Panthers will win a relatively close one here.

– 49ers over Seahawks: San Francisco is the latest team to see if a midseason coaching change will work, having axed Mike Nolan after the Giants loss. Mike Singletary takes over the coaching duties, and he should bring some intensity to the defensive side of the ball, having been one of the best linebackers in the league himself with the Bears in the 80s. J.T. O’Sullivan may be on a short leash at QB, so he’ll need a big game heading into the bye week, but he should be able to get it against a Seahawks team that is barely a step above terrible. Frank Gore should be a guarantee for a huge day, especially with a large chip on his shoulder after being held to 11 yards last week. The Seahawks are decimated with injuries to be fair, but they don’t seem be playing with any intensity, and they seem to be really overmatched against most teams. Keep in mind the Niners have already won in Seattle, and are going for a season sweep. San Francisco wins.

– Titans over Colts: This should be a good Monday nighter. It will be my first chance to actually sit down and watch Tennessee, since their games are never shown in my area. The Titans defense has been among the best in the league this year, and means bad news for a Colts offense that really struggled last week in Green Bay. Indianapolis will once again be without Joseph Addai, which will make it difficult if not impossible to run on Albert Haynesworth and company. I do expect a better game from Peyton Manning than last week, for he has always had decent games against the Titans, even on the road. Still, there is nothing the Colts seem to be able to do about their inability to stop the run, which is bad news when you’re facing Chris Johnson and LenDale White. The Titans will also get a huge lift from what is sure to be a raucous crowd, and that will be one of the sway factors for the Titans. If there is an early Colts turnover, they could even easily end up at the wrong end of another blowout. Tennessee gets the win, and with it practically buries the Colts already in the AFC South.

Posted in football | Tagged: National Football League, picks | Leave a Comment »

More Bad News in Broncoland

Posted by mizzou1028 on October 22, 2008

The Broncos defense has obviously struggled this season, and their struggles will certainly continue with the news that Champ Bailey could be out at least a month with a torn groin. Bailey is nothing short of the best cornerback in the game, and even though he has only one pick so far this season, keep in mind that teams refuse to throw at him because he’s so good. Case in point, Bailey completely shut down Randy Moss for a quarter and a half last night, but as soon as Champ left the game, the Patriots were able to get Moss the ball and he was able to score two touchdowns. Make so mistake about it, the Broncos’ biggest defensive weakness may still be an inability to stop the run, but Bailey’s absence will not do anyone on that side of the ball any favors.

The Broncos really find themselves at a crossroads in more ways than one during this bye week. Yes, they will get their injured players back on offense, including tailback Ryan Torain, who is expected to make a big impact after he dominated camp. That being said, the Broncos will not be able to replace Bailey in the secondary easily, if at all. If we’re going off a 4-6 week timeline, Bailey will at minimum not return until Nov. 23 against the Raiders, and could well be out until Dec. 7 against the Chiefs and maybe even beyond. The Broncos in many ways find themselves fortunate they aren’t going against many of the top passing attacks in the league during that stretch, but defending Braylon Edwards in Cleveland week 10 is a big concern now, as is facing the Falcons and their surprising rookie quarterback Matt Ryan in the Georgia Dome the next week. Injuries are definitely part of the game, but the Broncos are now facing a challenge in the coming weeks that they weren’t counting on in any way. None of this seemed possible when the Broncos raced out to a 3-0 start, but now Denver has lost three of its past four games and the prevailing feeling within the organization and the fan base is disappointment, not of excitement for what lies beyond. One thing is for sure, if the Broncos do manage to return to the playoffs this year, they will have definitely earned it.

Posted in football | Tagged: Champ Bailey, Denver Broncos, National Football League, sports | Leave a Comment »

Can This Even Be Fixed?

Posted by mizzou1028 on October 21, 2008

I can sit here and look at the standings after week seven and say that the Broncos are 4-3, that they are still in first place in the AFC West, and they would be in easy playoff position if the season ended right now. That seems impossible right now after the trouncing they got tonight at the hands of the Patriots of all teams. Did the Broncos really allow Sammy Morris to rush for 100 yards IN THE FIRST QUARTER? The same Sammy Morris who had ran for a high of 63 yards (and just 169 all season) in a game all year? The same Sammy Morris who averaged 3.2 yards a carry coming into tonight’s game and saw it balloon to a beyond ghastly 8.6 yards a carry against Denver? Heck, even BenJarvus Green-Ellis (yes that is a real player), who I had literally never heard of before tonight, rushed for 65 yards on 13 carries, to the tune of five yards a carry. Was this the same Patriots running game that managed just 106 yards as a team the week before against San Diego? The answer for the Broncos is unfortunately yes (More on the awful Broncos run defense below).

To watch the Broncos the last month makes you scratch your head and wonder how they’re in first place. Tonight they committed FIVE turnovers to New England’s zero. I don’t care if you’re the ’72 Dolphins going against North Dakota Tech, if you turn it over five times on the road, including your first two possessions, your odds of winning are never good. Say what you will, but the Broncos were moving the ball great on their first possession until Andre Hall fumbled. If they score on that drive to take a 7-0 lead instead of turning it over, the entire game would have likely unfolded very differently. But Hall’s fumble sucked the air out of the Broncos’ offense, and if that one didn’t his second one on the next position definitely did. Of all the stats in sports, and a lot of them are certainly without much value in relation to the final score, the one stat that almost always translates into wins and losses, regardless of sport, is turnovers. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that the Broncos have lost the turnover battle handily in each of their three losses this year, and losing it 5-0 to the Patriots explains away much of the blowout loss right there.

While the turnovers are obviously a huge factor in the Broncos’ recent struggles, the complete lack of a run defense this year is almost more alarming. This season the Broncos have already allowed:

– 97 yards rushing to the Raiders’ Justin Fargas in week one, easily a season high for the Raiders back that is rapidly losing playing time to Darren McFadden and has seen his yards per carry decline dramatically each week. Fargas’ 42 yard run against Denver is by far his longest of the season.

– 53 yards on just seven carries to San Diego’s Darren Sproles in week two (in addition to a 66 yard touchdown on a screen pass that essentially amounted to a run). Sproles has made at best cameo appearances for the Chargers since then (140 total rushing yards on the season), and in his last game against the Bills had just one yard rushing and five yards receiving.

– 198 yards (to the tune of 7.1 yards per carry) to the Chiefs’ Larry Johnson in week four (including a 65 yard run on the game’s second play). Johnson has been noticeably absent in KC since then, rushing for two yards on seven carries at Carolina and then getting himself suspended by the Chiefs for his off the field activity.

– 125 yards to Maurice Jones-Drew in week six, including a back breaking 46 yard TD run to break the game open. This came after he was held to just 7 yards the week before against Pittsburgh, and had been held to 32 or less in three other games. Not to mention that Jones-Drew’s performance against the Broncos came behind a banged up offensive line that featured two backups.

– The aforementioned monster game (well, half) from Sammy Morris, who finished with 138 yards despite only playing the first half. Morris’ previous season high was 63 yards for an entire game, which he easily eclipsed against Denver in the first quarter alone. Morris had been held to 26 yards on 10 carries the week before against San Diego, and he only needed 16 carries to destroy the Broncos. Morris actually had three games of 27 yards rushing or less coming into the Denver game (including week two at the Jets where he had ZERO yards on 8 carries).

Right now I am absolutely petrified of the remaining backs on Denver’s schedule: Ronnie Brown, Jamal Lewis, Michael Turner, Darren McFadden (as faster and better version of teammate Fargas), Thomas Jones, Larry Johnson again (assuming he isn’t still suspended), the DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart combo in Carolina, Marshawn Lynch, and LaDainian Tomlinson (and probably Sproles) in the final game. The point here is the Broncos have allowed more rushing yards (1,082) than any team except Kansas City, and they are allowing opponents to average 5.4 yards per carry. That is simply not acceptable. In order to even have a chance to be a good defense in the National Football League, you must be able to stop the run. If you can’t, anything else you might have going for you on that side of the ball is completely irrelevant. Case in point: the Broncos actually sacked Matt Cassel six times tonight, but did it really do them any good? It doesn’t matter if you can rush the passer or if you have great corners if you are not able to stop the run. It is easy to complain for example that the Broncos only have two interceptions for the season, but that number is partially a result of the team’s failure to stop the run. Why would any offensive coordinator throw in Champ Bailey’s direction when he knows he can chew up yards the easy way on the ground? Overall, the Broncos are 30th in the league in total yards per game (ahead of only the Chiefs and Lions), allowing close to 400 yards per contest. Do those look like the numbers of a contending team? Frankly they look like the numbers of a last place team. Heck, even the horrible Cincinnati Bengals are better than Denver in both total defense (331 yards per game) and run defense (allowing 4.4 yards per carry – a full yard less than Denver).

If the Broncos want to go back to the playoffs this year, it is imperative that they shore up their porous run defense. If that doesn’t improve, the Broncos’ second half prospects look very gloomy indeed. Yes, they currently sit 4-3 and are in the AFC West lead, but there is no way that will last with a run defense this bad. Even though the offense is not blameless in relation to their turnovers, they can’t be expected to score 40 points every week to win a game even if they hang onto the ball. Then again, the offense surely has to feel the pressure to carry the team the way the defense has performed this season. The bye is coming at a good time for the Broncos, and perhaps they can use it to regroup. Despite all this, as mediocre as the AFC West is this year, I still think they can overtake San Diego for the division title. This team still has talent and potential, and if the NFL has taught us anything, it’s that things do change week to week. This can be fixed, even if it won’t be easy, and even if it seems impossible after the embarrassment in Foxboro. One thing to keep in mind as a final thought: Mike Shanahan has never missed the playoffs three straight seasons in his career, and that is enough to keep me optimistic about the remainder of the season.

Posted in football | Tagged: Denver Broncos, National Football League, New England Patriots, sports | Leave a Comment »

Week Seven Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on October 17, 2008

Before we get to the NFL picks this week, I have to admit that I didn’t watch the entire ALCS game last night between the Rays and Red Sox. I turned the game off when the Rays entered the bottom of the seventh inning with a 7-0 lead and Scott Kazmir pitching a shutout. Imagine my surprise when, a little while later, I flipped back expecting to see postgame reaction of the Rays victory, only to find the game had only progressed to the 8th with Tampa clinging to a 7-6 lead. “NO! What the hell happened?”, I screamed to the room at large. If you haven’t already guessed I am rooting for the Rays for several reasons, not the least of which is a refusal to root for the team that swept my Rockies in the World Series last year, but it also has a lot to do with rooting for the underdog. Watching the rest of the game was exactly like watching a train wreck. The Rays gave up the tying hit on a Coco Crisp single in the 8th, then wasted an opportunity with two runners on in the top of the 9th, only to kick away the game on a throwing error by Evan Longoria and a walk-off single by J.D. Drew. It would seem easy to blame the Rays bullpen for not holding the lead for Kazmir, but Boston does deserve credit. Sure. David Ortiz had been in a slump, but he’s still David Ortiz, one of the best playoff clutch hitters in MLB history. The Red Sox clearly got a tremendous lift from the Fenway Park crowd, most of whom stayed for the finish. (Side note: How dumb would you have to be to leave ANY playoff game early? Seriously, if you leave a playoff game early, you should receive an automatic lifetime ban from the stadium. If you’re going to bail out, give your ticket to a real fan who cares! Sometime I would very interested to hear from fans who leave these games early, to find out what exactly they were thinking). The energy provided by the fans who stayed gave Boston all the momentum they needed, and to their credit they capitalized. From a fan’s perspective it will no doubt go down as one of the great games in MLB playoff history, but did it completely turn the series around?

This is the type of loss that really has to be devastating for Tampa Bay, considering they allowed the biggest playoff comeback since 1929. This is a Red Sox team that erased a 3 games to 1 deficit against Cleveland in the ALCS last year and came back from 3 games to 0 against the Yankees in 2004. Boston does not know how to quit, and even though the series is headed back to Tampa, the Rays won’t be helped by the legions of Red Sox fans that will surely be able to elbow their way into Tropicana Field. What Tampa does have going for them though is James Shields on the mound tomorrow night, going against Josh Beckett. Shields has been dominant all year for the Rays and actually pitched very well even in defeat in game one, while Beckett got shelled in game two and is clearly not healthy. The key for the Rays is they need to quickly forget about how close they got last night, and remember this simple fact: to make the World Series they need to win one of two at home this weekend, where they have been nothing less than stellar all season. That doesn’t seem so bad for Tampa now does it? The fact is the Red Sox will not die quietly, and obviously deserve a great deal of credit for their comeback win, and the question is, can the Rays kick it back up a notch? It should make for great baseball this weekend, and I guarantee I’m not the only one hoping Tampa Bay can get the job done and complete their Cinderella season.

Now on to the picks:

Last Week: 8-6 (.571) Season: 53-35 (.602)

– Bills over Chargers: This should be a fantastic game. The Chargers looked like the favorites they were expected to be in trashing the Patriots last week, while the Bills come off a bye and will get the benefit of Trent Edwards back in the lineup after he suffered a concussion against Arizona. San Diego should keep it close for a majority of the game, but the Bills will be highly motivated to prove they aren’t a fluke. The Buffalo crowd will be fired up for this one, and that combined with the early kickoff time will spell doom for San Diego. It’s a script that never seems to fail in the NFL: west coast team playing on the east coast in an early kickoff (10 a.m. pacific) = win for the home team. The Bills gain legitimacy with a huge win.

– Dolphins over Ravens: Both teams are coming off losses, but the Dolphins have not only the home field edge, but also know that Joe Flacco has not played well on the road for Baltimore. In fact, the Ravens’ offense has been practically non-existenton the road this year, while Miami’s defense has played very well at home. Miami continues to improve and is certainly one of the surprise teams in the league. The Dolphins also continue to fool teams with their creative formations and plays, and they should be able to come with at least one play to surprise the Ravens’ defense and pull out a win in this low scoring affair.

– Jets over Raiders: It should not have come as a surprise to anyone that the Raiders’ coaching change had no impact, and likely made things a lot worse. Oakland did nothing right in their loss to New Orleans, and even a return home to the Black Hole will not help. The Jets are in the midst of an easy part of the schedule and have not wasted any time taking advantage. Brett Favre has unequivicably proven he can still play at a very high level, and he seems like he’s getting more and more comfortable in the offense each week. The Jets win what should end up being a yawner.

– Steelers over Bengals: How bad is it in Cincinnati right now? This should give you a pretty good idea. This means there could well be more terrible towels in the stands at Paul Brown Stadium Sunday then there will be Bengals fans. The Bengals once again start Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, which gives them about a 0.10% chance to win against anyone, even at home. Factor in Chad Johnson being unhappy as usual, and the fact that they’re playing the Steelers, and well, that chance goes down to about 0.00000000001%. Pittsburgh has absolutely owned the Bengals for the past few years anyway, let alone when Cincinnati is a complete mess. Even if Willie Parker can’t play, Pittsburgh should win this in their sleep.

– Redskins over Browns: This one is certainly tricky after Cleveland’s spectacular effort on Monday night and the Redskins’ surprising loss to St. Louis. This game will go a long way toward helping us find out a lot about both teams, as both really need the win to stay in their respective division races. Clinton Portis should be able to continue running well for Washington, but the Browns also seem like they have finally found their offense again. Perhaps Derek Anderson will continue to play well if he knows he’s not liable to be yanked for Brady Quinn at any time. That being said, a hunch says that Jim Zorn and his staff will not allow Washington to drop two home games in a row, and for that reason I take the Redskins, but you might as well flip a coin here.

– Texans over Lions: Houston finally picked up a win last week, and that should really give the Texans confidence heading into this one. Houston is in the midst of something you never, ever see in the NFL: they are entering game three of a four game homestand, and five of six at Reliant Stadium. This came about because of rescheduling needs due to Hurricane Ike, but with the remaining home games all winnable (the Bengals and Ravens remain on the home stretch), Houston seems likely to make a big, big move in the AFC. Even though Houston started 0-4, and even if that proves to be too much to overcome, the Texans will be a major player in the AFC race. As for Detroit? This play says it all. The countdown to next year has already begun.

– Colts over Packers: The unquestioned game of the week. Indianapolis finally looked like themselves last week, and there was even a Marvin Harrison sighting! Green Bay slugged their way to road win in Seattle, and will obviously benefit from a return to Lambeau Field. The Packers have played reasonably well considering the slew of injuries they’ve been dealing with, and it stands to reason that Ryan Grant should be able to gain 100 yards against a defense that has had trouble stopping the run without Bob Sanders. This seems to be the consensus anyway even though the Colts completely shut down Baltimore’s running game last week. Still, a great game like this often comes down to the quarterbacks, and I’ll take a (now healthy) Peyton Manning over Aaron Rodgers 100 percent of the time. The Colts have debunked the myth for several years now that they can’t win away from the Dome, and they get an important road win here to get back on track.

– Titans over Chiefs: It seems as though Days of Our Lives has made its stop in Kansas City this week. Tony Gonzalez remains with the team after they refused to honor his trade request, and Larry Johnson will not suit up for the Chiefs because he violated team rules this week. Kansas City playing one of the best defenses in the league without any threat of a running game? Case closed, the only question here is how much the Titans will win by. Besides, Johnson rushed for only two yards on seven carries last week against the Panthers, so is Kansas City really missing anything anyway? Then again, every time I say the game is a guaranteed blowout we have an upset or near upset (see the Minnesota-Detroit game last week, which the Vikings barely won). You could make the case that Kansas City will benefit from the Arrowhead crowd, but really, do you see the Titans imploding here following a bye week? I sure don’t.

– Rams over Cowboys: MAJOR UPSET ALERT. The Cowboys have struggled for three weeks now, getting a win only because they got the gift of a home game against the Bungles. Dallas does not know who will start at quarterback. Will it be Tony Romo with a broken pinkie finger, or Brad Johnson? How will new receiver Roy Williams fit in? His presence should make it interesting to see how Mount TO will be affected. The Dallas secondary is also in shambles, as they will be without Pacman Jones and Terrence Newman. I sense a huge passing day for Marc Bulger and Torry Holt, who is waiting to break out after a really slow start. How quickly the mighty have fallen, I have a hunch that St. Louis wins this at home, being that they’re playing much harder for new coach Jim Haslett.

– Giants over 49ers. This is not a good week for San Francisco to be making the trip east. The same thought from the San Diego-Buffalo game about a west coast team and an early east coast kick also applies here, but a larger factor is the Niners will be facing a really angry Giants team. The defending champs know they laid an egg in Cleveland, and they’ll be out for blood on Sunday. The 49ers have shown some spunk offensively, mainly thanks to Frank Gore, who should really be getting the ball more, but their defense won’t have any answer for a motivated Eli Manning and company. The Giants also know they enter the really tough part of their schedule and need to win this game. This should be another blowout in the Meadowlands.

– Bears over Vikings: Both teams are 3-3, and both have been really up and down in the early part of the year. This should be a really tight, low scoring, defensive game, which gives the Bears an edge, especially at Soldier Field. Kyle Orton has actually been playing pretty well for the Bears, and I actually give him a slight edge over Gus Frerotte in the quarterback battle. The deciding factor could very well be turnovers, and both defenses are capable of forcing mistakes from the other team. I go with Chicago primarily because they’re playing at home, and I would probably take the Vikings if the game were in the Metrodome. The winner of this game will have at least a share of the lead in the NFC North.

– Panthers over Saints: This should be a very entertaining game in the NFC South. Carolina will be highly motivated after getting blown out last week, while the Saints are on a roll coming off a blowout win. Both offenses are capable of lighting it up, with Reggie Bush and Steve Smith usually stealing the show for their respective teams. New Orleans should get star receiver Marques Colston back, which will clearly help their offense. Carolina will be looking for a better effort from their running back duo of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, plus they hope Mushin Muhammad will be healthy enough to play. The difference in this game is likely to be Carolina’s motivation factor playing at home, and Smith should be able to outshine Bush, but not by much. Carolina wins a squeaker.

– Buccaneers over Seahawks. This game could very well be second fiddle in the central Florida area if the Red Sox and Rays are playing game seven at Tropicana Field Sunday night. If that’s the case, it will be interesting to see what kind of crowd is on hand for Sunday Night Football at the pirate ship. Tampa Bay in any case should have little trouble winning easily, with a defense that is suffocating as always under defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin. Seattle continues its musical chairs at quarterback with Seneca Wallace likely to get the nod after Charlie Frye struggled last week and Matt Hasselbeck still at least a week away from returning. Lots of quarterbacks is never a good thing, and the Bucs defense is licking its chops in excitement. The fact that Jeff Garcia is healthy and playing well again can’t hurt either. If there is an ALCS game seven, Tampa sports fans at least shouldn’t have to worry about the football game after the first quarter. Tampa Bay by at least three touchdowns in this one.

– Broncos over Patriots: The Monday night game this week is a really good matchup of two teams coming off a loss. Denver should get some reinforcements with the return of Eddie Royal and likely Tony Scheffler, although Brandon Stokley is questionable with a concussion. The Broncos defense has struggled against the run, but the Patriots have really struggled to run the ball in recent weeks. Going with one of the weekend themes of looking at quarterback play, how can anyone possibly go with Matt Cassel over Jay Cutler? Partially on that note, the Brandon Marshall has a better chance for a big game than Randy Moss because Moss will be matched against Champ Bailey. The deciding factor here is actually history: the Broncos are the only team in the NFL with a winning record against the Patriots since 2000. Denver has actually won five of its past six games against New England, including three in a row. Mike Shanahan is 8-3 against the Patriots and Bill Belichick is just 2-9 against Denver. So even in the height of the Patriots’ dynasty, they still always struggled against Shanahan. Now that New England is clearly down without Tom Brady? The Broncos get a much needed win entering the bye week.

BYE: Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Arizona

Posted in baseball, football | Tagged: Boston Red Sox, Major League Baseball, National Football League, picks, Tampa Bay Rays | Leave a Comment »

That’s Why They Play the Game!

Posted by mizzou1028 on October 14, 2008

– Giants over Browns: This has mismatch written all over it. The Giants are without question the best team in football through the first month, and they will be heavily favored in this one. It’s a weekly theme, but the Giants continue to prove wrong all the so-called “experts” who picked them to miss the playoffs. How on Earth could anyone have predicted them to miss the playoffs after taking a look at their soft early schedule? Even without Plaxico Burress last week, they didn’t skip a beat at all as they destroyed Seattle. Cleveland for whatever reason has yet to bench Derek Anderson in favor of Brady Quinn, even though the Browns only have a win this year because the Bengals gave it to them. I hate to say I told you so, but the Browns are not a contender in any way, and continue to prove they were a big time fluke last year. Think the Monday Night Football crew regrets selecting so many Browns games yet?

Ummm…yeah, so I clearly misfired on that one. I promised at the beginning of the season I would be the first to admit my prediction errors, and here you go, that was a big one. In my defense I wasn’t by any means the only one. Eight of the nine pickers on espn.com picked the Giants. (On the flip side, I did correctly predict Arizona’s win over the Cowboys, but that’s not the topic here). It certainly seemed going in that the Giants had the best team in football by far, while the Browns had clearly struggled coming into the contest. Sure, the Browns had the bye week to regroup and were playing in front of an enthusiastic home crowd, but the Giants had won 12 straight games away from Giants Stadium dating back to September of last year, including their miraculous playoff run, so it wasn’t like the crowd was going to adversely affect them. I certainly did not expect Derek Anderson to save his job, which he did with a 301 yard, two touchdown effort. I absolutely didn’t expect a breakout game from Braylon Edwards, who had been notably absent the first four games of the season for the Browns. Most of all, I didn’t expect the Giants to implode the way they did. Eli Manning in particular was not the same last night as he was early in the year, throwing several crucial picks at inopportune times.

So what does all that mean in the grand scheme of things in the NFL? For starters, it’s only one game so it’s difficult to ascertain whether that was one egg laid by the Giants or whether there is a larger concern for the defending champs. Likewise, are the Browns back among the contenders, or did they just have everything going well for one night? It’s the same theme every week but it bears worth repeating: the NFL season is such a roller coaster that things really do vary radically from week to week, making it difficult to predict the games, which in turn is what makes the league so great. Who expected the Rams to beat Washington Sunday? Sure, I said a Rams win wouldn’t be surprising, but I didn’t actually go out on a limb and pick them. Did anyone really expect the Vikings to struggle in any way against Detroit, and would need a last second field goal to win? How about the Falcons? Show me anyone that thought they would start the year 4-2, and I’ll give you the oceanfront property I own in Wyoming for free, no questions asked.

How about the games coming up this weekend? Cowboys-Rams looked like a guaranteed Dallas blowout victory a month ago, even two weeks ago. Now? The Cowboys are without Tony Romo (broken finger on his throwing hand), Pacman Jones (suspension), Terence Newman (sports hernia), and Felix Jones (hamstring). Besides all the injuries, the Cowboys have lost two of three, and very nearly all three if not for a sloppy win against the winless Bengals. Terrell Owens has been essentially shut down for three straight games, tallying just four catches for 36 yards in the loss to Arizona, and now will undoubtedly be petulant when he’s not getting downfield looks from Brad Johnson over the next month. The Rams meanwhile are coming off a win and will be coming back home. Granted, despite all that Dallas is still favored to win the game, but is it a gimmie in any way? Absolutely not.

It will be needless to say interesting to see how things really do shake out at the end of the season. I still think teams like the Jaguars, Chargers and Colts that are hovering around .500 will be major players in the AFC. It will be interesting to see if Buffalo and Tennessee can keep up their fast starts in the AFC, or if Atlanta and Arizona can stay in the chase in the NFC. Will the Cowboys fold? Are the Redskins for real? What about the Broncos, will they be able to hold off San Diego? Who are the real Patriots, will they end up being in the mix, or is their dynasty derailed for the time being? Who will win the NFC North, where three teams currently sit 3-3? For that matter, who will come out of the NFC South logjam, where every team is .500 or better? The point is everything is up in the air, and that will ultimately make mine or anyone else’s predictions look like garbage at the end of the year. The fact is it is most likely no one will end up being completely correct or close to it. Even the winless Bengals and Lions are likely to shock somebody at some point, for there has NEVER BEEN an 0-16 team in NFL history. So while I may have looked foolish with my pregame assessment of the Giants-Browns game, at least I still went over .500 for the week, which means i did better than 5 of the ESPN experts for the week. Considering the state of the NFL these days, that doesn’t seem to be too bad at all. Besides, if I really could pick the games that well, I wouldn’t be bothering to write about them here, and I would be enjoying my weekly fortune from Vegas. Until I get that patent for the time machine approved, the teams of the NFL will just keep proving me and everyone else who doubts them wrong.

Posted in football | Tagged: Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, National Football League, New York Giants | Leave a Comment »

Week Six Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on October 10, 2008

Before we get to the NFL picks for the week, I have to say I am almost more excited about the Saturday slate of college action this weekend than I am about the NFL games. On Saturday you have Oklahoma-Texas, a game that is WAY more important than that overhyped Ohio State-USC game from a few weeks ago. OU-Texas might well end up being the game of the year, as both teams have dominated so far this year. You also have LSU-Florida in Gainesville, which will no doubt be a critical game in the SEC. My Missouri Tigers will continue to try to put up 50 points each week against Oklahoma State, which has also been averaging 50 points a game this year, so that game should be a very entertaining wild shootout. I also want to keep an eye on another high powered offense in Texas Tech. Will they put 70 points up on Nebraska? The mixture of college and pro action, plus the baseball playoffs and the start of NHL make this a wonderful time on the sports calendar for sure. Now, on to the NFL picks.

Last Week: 7-7 (.500) Season: 45-29 (.608)

– Dolphins over Texans: Miami has defeated the two AFC Championship Game participants from last year, which is no small feat even if the Patriots and Chargers may not be as good as last year’s versions. Ronnie Brown seems fully recovered from last year’s ACL injury and that is bad news for opponents. Houston is coming off quite possibly its worst loss in franchise history, losing s 27-10 lead with 4;40 to play last week against the Colts. Matt Schaub is back at QB for the Texans, but there is simply no immediate recovery from that kind of debacle. Miami keeps the momentum going on the road.

– Jets over Bengals: New York is coming off a bye, which means Brett Favre had a chance to further get comfortable with the offense. The Jets are still very much within striking distance in the AFC East, and they know they need to take care of business at home. Cincinnati has played to its competition thus far this year, which could make this a much closer game than it may appear on paper. The Bengals have talent despite being 0-5 so the Jets need to be careful, but a hunch New York wins at home, even if its not by a wide margin.

– Colts over Ravens: Logic says i should go with Baltimore. Their defense is playing great, and they should be able to run the ball against a Colts defense that hasn’t been able to stop the run this year. Then again, I have to think the Colts gained quite a bit of momentum with their wild comeback win in Houston. Peyton Manning is still Peyton Manning, and he has always owned Baltimore even in the heyday of the Ravens defense. Marvin Harrison can’t possibly continue to be invisible can he? Even if he is in this game, the Colts still have Reggie Wayne. Indianapolis finally gets its first win at new Lucas Oil Stadium.

– Broncos over Jaguars: This should be a tight low scoring game, much like the Broncos-Bucs game last week. Jacksonville held the ball over 40 minutes in last year’s meeting, so expect the Jags to run, run, run again. The Broncos did do much better against the run last week, while the Jags have struggled to run it in every game this year except against the Colts. Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combined to only rush for 30 yards last week against Pittsburgh, so the Broncos have a chance to continue improvement against the run if they stay disciplined. Denver will be without tight end Tony Scheffler, so the Broncos will need a big game from Brandon Marshall. It says here that’s a given after he was shut down last week. Denver has just enough offense to win this one.

– Saints over Raiders: New Orleans gave one away last week against the Vikings. The Saints know they have more talent than their 2-3 record indicates, and they may only need to wait one more week before the return of star receiver Marques Colston from a thumb injury. The Raiders are coming off a bye, and of course their soap opera press conference and firing of Lane Kiffin. As messed up as the Raiders organization is, a coaching change is not going to help them win this one. After this one the Saints do not return to the Superdome until Nov. 24, due to a “home” game in London against San Diego at the end of the month. The Saints know they must get this one, and they will.

– Cardinals over Cowboys: Major upset alert. The Cowboys have struggled the last two weeks, and if they were playing virtually anyone other than the Bengals they wouldn’t have won last week. Dallas also has an added distraction this week of more off-field trouble for Pacman Jones which can’t help. Arizona meanwhile, has shown they have one of the top passing games in the league, and their defense got a huge boost last week with the return of hard hitting safety Adrian Wilson. The Cardinals have won 8 of their last 10 at home, and it’s not all opposing team fans in the stands anymore. Arizona wins in a shootout.

– Eagles over 49ers: Philadelphia is also much more talented then their 2-3 record indicates. The Eagles are coming off two tough losses and now have a road game against a team with potential to surprise. If the Niners do get a consistent outing from J.T. O’Sullivan, an upset is not out of the question. If he is erratic, the Eagles offense should be able to do enough to win. Dononvan McNabb gets receiving threat Kevin Curtis back, which should also open up opportunities for DeSean Jackson. Philadelphia knows it can’t afford many more slipups in the rugged NFC East.

– Redskins over Rams: Washington is arguably the league’s biggest surprise at 4-1. The Redskins are coming off back-to-back division road wins against Dallas and Philly, and now have a couple of friendly home games coming up. The Redskins do have a guard against a trap here though, with the Rams coming off a bye and a coaching change, plus the reinstatement of Marc Bulger at quarterback. A Rams victory would not come as a complete shock just because of the bye and a chance to regroup, but it is impossible to give them the nod on the road when they haven’t shown anything at all this year. Washington gets the home win.

– Bears over Falcons: Atlanta at 3-2 is simply stunning. Maybe I’m just slow to get on the bandwagon here, but I can’t see Matt Ryan having the success he’s had so far this year against Chicago’s defense. The Bears defense makes life hell for any quarterback, let alone a rookie. Then again, Matt Ryan did win at Lambeau last week, which is also rare for a rookie. Still, if Kyle Orton plays as well as he did last week, the Bears should have enough to win this game. Chicago can really take control of the NFC North in the early going if they pull off this road victory.

– Vikings over Lions: Detroit is well in the running for the worst team in the league. They are frantically trying to trade guys who don’t want to be there before the deadline. (Roy Williams anyone?) They are a complete mess on defense because they haven’t used any high draft picks on that side of the ball in years. Minnesota is coming off a big road win that may have saved its season. I really hope you’re not going against Adrian Peterson in your fantasy league this week, because he’s about to have a monster day. The only question here is how much the Vikings win this game by.

– Packers over Seahawks: This will be a very ugly game. Seattle is so banged up on offense that Matt Hasselbeck will still start at quarterback despite not practicing all week due to a shoulder injury. Half of the receivers are still out as well, and Seattle is coming off a 44-6 blowout loss to the Giants. Green Bay has lost three in a row, and is also riddled with injuries, especially on the defensive side of the ball. This is very clearly not Seattle’s year, and the Packers know they can stay in the NFC North race with a road win. Green Bay wins the dud game of the week.

– Panthers over Buccaneers: I expect a great game in this one. Carolina is red hot, and will try to win on the road against a good Bucs defense that is always very tough at home. I go with Carolina on a hunch because Jake Delhomme has always had good success in his career against Tampa Bay, and the dual receiving threat of Steve Smith and Mushin Muhammad is causing all kinds of trouble for defenses. Tampa Bay goes back to Jeff Garcia at quarterback, but I don’t think the Bucs have enough offense to keep up. Carolina wins.

– Chargers over Patriots: San Diego will be highly motivated in the Sunday nighter for several reasons. The Chargers have lost three in a row to New England, including two playoff games. San Diego also is a desperate team at 2-3, and knows they can’t afford a loss at home being that they’re already facing a two game deficit in the AFC West. The Chargers will also be out for blood after the allowed a winnable game to slip away in Miami. The Patriots may be 3-1 yes, but they haven’t really proven they are completely their old selves after the Tom Brady injury. The raucous home crowd under the lights is the sway factor as the Chargers notch the W.

Posted in football | Tagged: National Football League, picks | Leave a Comment »

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