Things are rapidly unraveling for the Denver Broncos, who are now in serious danger of becoming the second team in NFL history to start 6-0 and miss the playoffs (the 2003 Vikings are the other).  While there are 10 scenarios that would allow the Broncos to make the playoffs, all of them involve either a loss by the Jets or Ravens.  As you’ll see in the picks below, I don’t think either will happen.  It is safe to say that the Broncos have missed countless opportunities this season (especially in losses to the Redskins and Raiders) so it is their own fault that they are stuck in this position in the first place.  Had the Broncos won either of those two games, they would have clinched a spot already.  Now, they are on the wrong end of tiebreakers and need help to back into the playoffs.  Perhaps the most disappointing thing is I thought the Broncos played maybe their best half of the season Sunday in the second half against the Eagles.  Denver erased a 27-10 deficit, had the Eagles on the ropes, but couldn’t quite close the deal.  If Denver had played like that the week before against the Raiders, they would have blown them out.  Denver has been plagued by inconsistency all year, playing well against good competition most of the time but folding on several occasions against inferior opponents.

The bottom line for the Broncos is there have been too many times this season where they failed to capitalize in the red zone, and too many games in which they simply did not score enough points offensively.  I think the foundation is there for a good defense, for the unit has been much improved over last year.  On offense, the Broncos have got to figure out how to get more production next season, particularly out of guys like Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler.  While they have a chance to finish with an improved record over last year, it appears probable in any case that the Broncos will once again be on the outside looking in.  That is unless a few major upsets take place.  We’ll have a more detailed breakdown of the season after it is all over, but for now the Broncos have to wonder about what could have been in a season where they had such a great start. 

Now on to the picks, while trying to navigate the minefield that is week 17, especially the part about trying to determine who will play to win and who will concede games by benching starters.

Last week: 9-7 Season: 157-81

– Bills over Colts: Obviously this is not a pick that would be made in normal circumstances.  If this was a meaningful game the Colts would win big every time, but this is clearly not a meaningful game.  The Colts I believe made a colossal error of epic proportions last week when they basically handed the Jets a free victory by benching their starters in the second half last week.  The Colts led 15-10 in the third quarter at the time, which clearly means that the game was not yet out of hand.  I believe especially at that point, when the starters had already played into the second half, with the Colts just six quarters away from an undefeated regular season and potential history, they pulled the plug.  I believe this is dead wrong for several reasons, not the least of which is they’ve now put themselves in a position where they will not play hard this week, will then have a bye week, and then will have turn the switch back on against a hot team coming off a playoff win.  History in the NFL has proven that teams that do this NEVER EVER win the Super Bowl.  The Colts themselves have stumbled numerous times by resting players in the final weeks of the regular season, only to fall flat on their faces in the first round of the playoffs.  The one year the Colts won the Super Bowl in 2006, they played their starters all the way through because they needed to, and lo and behold their momentum carried them all the way to the Super Bowl win!  I think in this case especially, when the Colts voluntarily torched their perfect season and shot and history, it will really come back to bite them.  The Colts players were clearly not happy with the decision, and I think it is just too difficult to turn the switch back on after weeks of inactivity.  No matter what anyone says you can’t simulate game intensity in practice nor can you expect to keep your timing and rhythm.  Factor that the Colts could well have a tough matchup in their first playoff game (possibilities include the Patriots, Bengals and several other teams) and I think the Colts are cooked.  In fact book it right now: Indianapolis WILL NOT play in the Super Bowl, largely because of this idiotic boneheaded decision to basically ignore the last two weeks of the season instead of going for 16-0 as they should have.  As for this game, I know the Bills have been awful, but I refuse to pick a team led by Chris Painter at quarterback to win on the road.  Besides, we know the Colts are basically not even attempting to win this game, thus I take the Bills at home. 

– Falcons over Buccaneers: A meaningless game in terms of the standings.  For the Falcons, they have a chance to finish 9-7 if they win.  Tampa Bay has won two straight, including last week’s stunner in New Orleans (for the record I will point out that I did pick the Bucs to win the first meeting in Tampa, only to see that blow up in my face, and then I took the safe route last and missed the pick again.  Go figure that I would pick the Tampa upset in the wrong meeting).  In this game, I think both teams want to end the season on a positive note, but I’ll take the Falcons on a hunch. 

– Panthers over Saints: This game has been rendered meaningless since the Saints have now clinched home field throughout the NFC playoffs.  While I’m not ready to write off New Orleans yet, they are in a sudden free fall that really extends back to their near loss in Washington.  I’m not sure if the Saints will bench Brees and company for this scrimmage of if they’ll actually try to win, but I’m leaning toward Sean Payton resting people (again a mistake, I think they need to get a win and get momentum).  In any case, the Panthers are suddenly red hot (blowout wins over the Vikings and Giants) and are getting good enough play from Matt Moore at quarterback that he may actually win the job for 2010.  Since the Panthers are on fire and playing at home, I like them to win, figuring that the Saints are likely to sit people and not risk injury.  In the end I think the Saints peaked too early, and are in real danger against several quick strike teams in the playoffs.

– 49ers over Rams: This is probably the dud game of the week with several contenders.  St. Louis can clinch the first pick in the draft with a loss, and chances are they’ll get it with plenty of empty seats at the Edward Jones Dome.  The 49ers have a chance to really finish out on a positive note (three wins in their final four games) with a win and carry momentum into next season.  The 49ers should win this without much difficulty. 

– Bears over Lions: Jay Cutler came out of nowhere and really had an outstanding game Monday night against Minnesota, leading the Bears to 36 points and an overtime victory.  That is the Jay Cutler the Bears thought they were trading for in the offseason.  Of course it is only one game and he performed that way when the pressure was completely off and the Bears were long eliminated from postseason contention.  It remains to be seen if Cutler will be able to do that on a consistent basis in 2010.  In any case the Bears have a lot of rebuilding to do at a number of positions and not a lot of draft choices to do it with.  For the Lions, they are limping into another disappointing offseason and will once again look to regroup.  I like the Bears to win this ugly affair even though it’s on the road. 

– Titans over Seahawks: The only suspense here is whether Chris Johnson will achieve 2,000 yards rushing on the season.  He needs 128 yards to get it done, certainly very doable against a Seahawks team with nothing to play for and is just playing out the string of a very disappointing season.   I think Johnson has vaulted over Adrian Peterson this season for the honor of best running back in the league and will be a star for years to come in Tennessee.  The Titans still have a chance to finish 8-8 even after an 0-6 start, and that would be a tremendous achievement even though they’re out of the playoff hunt.  As for the Seahawks, expect big changes next year especially after the way they have practically given up in December.  Titans roll in this one. 

– Jaguars over Browns: Jacksonville’s playoff are hanging by a thread, and they will need a ton of help.  They looked awful in every way last week against the Patriots, which is probably an indicator that they wouldn’t be much of a threat in the playoffs if they were able to sneak in.  The Jaguars have nevertheless exceeded expectations this season, but you have to wonder if they’re wasting the prime of Maurice Jones-Drew’s career.  The Browns have very quietly won three in a row, but questions continue to hover about Eric Mangini’s future in the wake of Mike Holmgren taking over the organization.  I expect the Jaguars to win this game if nothing else to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

– Vikings over Giants: Minnesota is in real trouble.  They have lost three of their past four games and now are in real danger of losing their first round bye if the Eagles win in Dallas.  I do think the Vikings woke up offensively in the second half in Chicago, and they will need that kind of offensive attack going forward.  The real problem there now is that Adrian Peterson needs to hold on to the football.  The defensive front seven is still among the best in the NFL, but it was evident Monday night that they couldn’t get pressure, and it was also clear that cornerback Antonie Winfield was not near 100 percent.  If he continues to allow receivers to get that wide open, it won’t matter what kind of pressure the front seven generates.  I do still have a feeling though that this team is not dead yet, because I still think they are the most talented team in the league on both sides of the ball if they are clicking.  I think it will start with a momentum building win in this one, especially against a Giants team that is officially cooked after last week’s embarrassment against Carolina.  The Vikings know the bye is on the line, and I expect a spirited effort from Favre and company.  As for the G-men, it will interesting to see what changes await in the offseason after they blew a 5-0 start. 

– Steelers over Dolphins: Both teams are still mathematically alive, and both need help from multiple teams.  Pittsburgh is in better shape tiebreaker wise than Miami, but both teams will sink everything into this game to try and win it.  I think the Steelers are a sleeping giant that has woken up with two huge wins against Green Bay and Baltimore, and I think they are the team that no one in the AFC wants to see should they get in.  They are suddenly running the ball better, Ben Roethlisberger is throwing the ball well, and the defense is showing a knack for physical play again.  The Dolphins are coming off two straight losses, including one last week in which they allowed Houston way too big a lead in the first half.  I think even though this game is in Miami, the momentum is leaning toward the black and gold.  Pittsburgh wins an exciting game, keeping their playoff hopes alive at least into the late games. 

– Patriots over Texans: This is a hard game to figure because the game really doesn’t mean much to the Patriots unless they have a strong desire to be the three seed instead of the four.  Bill Belichick doesn’t have a history of resting players, although he was very coy about it this week in his press conferences.  The folks in Vegas seem to think the Patriots will basically take this game off, because the line is Texans by seven, which surely wouldn’t occur in ordinary circumstances.  If I were the Patriots I would play this game hard to win simply because I would want the three seed if I could get it (If New England loses and Cincinnati wins, the Bengals get the three).  The reason I would really want the three is just in case fluke circumstances occur in the playoffs that would allow the chance to host the AFC championship game, whereas with the four seed that is much more unlikely.  This paid off for the Colts in 2006 when they actually played hard in the final game to assure themselves the three seed, and ended up hosting the AFC title game, leading to a Super Bowl win.  In any case, I would be really surprised if the Patriots sat people against the Texans because that just doesn’t fit with the Belichick philosophy.  Houston is indeed red hot, and they are alive by a thread for the playoffs, and I do expect them to give a good effort at home, but if the Patriots play to win I like them to prevail on the road.  The caveat is I would take the Texans if I knew the Patriots would play backups, butI going to roll the dice and say that Belichick will play to win.  The reason I say that is Belichick knows the importance of momentum heading into the playoffs, and for this reason I think New England could be a dangerous team in the postseason.   

– Chargers over Redskins:  This is a meaningless game as the Chargers are locked into the two seed and have clinched a first round bye.  The question here is whether they will play to win and keep their winning streak alive (currently at 10 straight wins) or if they will sit everyone and basically take two weeks off.  My views are clear on this matter and I think the Chargers should play to win and keep momentum, but we’ll see what Norv Turner decides to do.  In any case, even if San Diego plays backups, I think the Redskins are so bad right now and in such disarray that I’m not so sure they would even be able to beat the Chargers JV on the road.   Washington has been really embarrassing in two straight prime time home games, and it seems clear that they are now just waiting to see whether or not Mike Shanahan is named head coach next week.  I’ll take the Chargers to win, and assume Rivers and company play at least a half.   

– Cardinals over Packers: This is an interesting deal because the Cardinals still have a slight chance at a first round bye (they would need a Vikings loss and the Cowboys to beat the Eagles).  The other factor here is this could very well be the first round playoff matchup for these teams.  Being that the wild card meeting is not guaranteed,  I think the Cardinals will see how the Vikings game unfolds in the early slot.  If Minnesota loses, I think the Cards go all out to win and go for the bye.  If the Vikings win, Arizona knows they can’t get the bye, and in that case I think they may rest everyone.  In that case I can see their point for doing it because it makes no sense to reveal your game plan against an opponent you’re likely going to play in a much more meaningful game the next week.  For Green Bay, it’s possible they could end up playing Philly or Dallas or maybe even Minnesota, but it seems like the Packers are likely to rest players at least for the second half in any case.  Thus, I pick the Cardinals to win. 

– Broncos over Chiefs: The Broncos woes have already been documented, but they need to win this game and then hope for some help.  The bottom line is they started 6-0 and then proceeded to lose seven of their next nine games, so it is their own fault they are in this position.  Denver let an easy one at home slip away two weeks ago against Oakland, so for that reason alone they should be motivated enough not to let that happen again.  The Broncos also slaughtered Kansas City 44-13 just a few weeks ago at Arrowhead, so this is a team in which they clearly are able to score points against.  The one thing to watch here for KC is that Jamaal Charles has quietly emerged as one of the more exciting backs in the league, so it will be important for the Broncos to contain him.  I think the Broncos win this game, but as you’ll see below I don’t think they’ll get the help they need to make the playoffs.  Still, 9-7 is much better than everyone’s preseason expectations for this team.

– Ravens over Raiders: The Broncos need their arch rival to do them a big favor and pull off this major upset in order to make the playoffs.  While the Raiders do have several surprising wins under their belt this year, including wins against AFC North foes Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, I don’t think they’ll be able to pull off this one even though it will be on their home field in the east bay.  Oakland looked lost last week in Cleveland with Charlie Frye at the controls, and it has already been announced that Frye will start again on Sunday.  Besides, it is hard to tell which games the Raiders will play hard in and which ones they won’t.  As for the Ravens, they know they let one get away last week in Pittsburgh, and for them it’s very simple: win and you’re in the playoffs.  Baltimore does not need any help, and they will come out with a playoff effort in this game and win it perhaps in blowout fashion.

– Cowboys over Eagles: This is the clear game of the week without question, and in my mind the one that should have been moved to Sunday night.  I’m not sure if the Cowboys were on too many times during the season, but the choice NBC made is at best questionable and at worst a very dumb one (more on that in a moment).  The winner of this game between the Eagles and Cowboys wins the NFC East.  Both teams have a shot at a first round bye (in the Eagles case they control their own destiny for it), and in spite of all that it is also possible these two teams may square off again in the first round of the playoffs.  That makes it very important for these teams to try and win this game so they can get home field advantage for that potential meeting in the event that they don’t get the bye.  This is also an intriguing game from the standpoint that the Cowboys won the first meeting in Philadelphia, and both teams come into the game red hot, and perhaps at this point the two favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl (no offense to the Saints and Vikings, each of whom look much more vulnerable right now then these two teams).  I think this will be a fantastic game.  Both offenses have the ability to strike quickly, but I think the Cowboys are playing better on the defensive side of the ball right now (they even held San Diego to 20 points, which considering the Chargers’ play of late has to be considered a fantastic effort).  I think the Dallas defense will get one more turnover than Philadelphia, and thus I take the Cowboys to win at home, and to win the NFC East.

– Jets over Bengals: Why this game was selected as the Sunday nighter is absolutely beyond me, other than they must have wanted the New York market.  Now, the Bengals are certainly worthy of a prime time appearance and they don’t have one yet, but here’s my problem with this game being moved to the night slot: depending on how the early games go, it may mean absolutely nothing for the Bengals.  If New England wins, Cincinnati is locked into the four seed with no shot of moving up.  If that happens, a Bengals-Jets wild card matchup could be a strong possibility.  This means the Bengals will not want to reveal anything and would be likely to sit Palmer, Ochocinco and company and basically tank the game.  This is particularly problematic when there are a number of AFC teams (Denver, Pittsburgh and Houston)  that need a Jets loss to make the playoffs.  Is is just me or is there a major problem when the Jets vault to the top of the wild card heap by virtue of two gimmie wins against teams that aren’t trying?  This problem could have been avoided had the NFL left this game in the 11 a.m. early slot, because if the Bengals and Patriots games kicked off simultaneously, it would stand to reason that both teams would play hard and try for the three seed.  Now, Cincinnati can wait and see how everything unfolds, and there is a better than 50-50 chance they will now rest people.  Granted, it is possible that if the Patriots lose, the Bengals will play hard and try for the three seed, but that is no guarantee.  I pick the Jets for the simple reason I think they will play the Bengals JV.  I do not think the Jets will be much of a factor in the playoffs once they play teams that are actually trying hard and giving maximum effort. 

So if my picks are correct, here are what the playoff matchups would look like:

AFC Wild Card: (6) Baltimore at (3) New England, (5) NY Jets at (4) Cincinnati

Top 2 seeds: Indianapolis, San Diego

NFC Wild Card: (6) Green Bay at (3) Arizona, (5) Philadelphia at (4) Dallas

Top 2 seeds: New Orelans, Minnesota

Before we get to week 15, I want to point out that I think the Broncos actually played one of their better games on Sunday, even though they fell to the Colts 28-16.  Now, this does not mean that I excuse them for their inability to convert in short yardage or in the red zone, but when you compare it to previous outings against the Colts over the years, this was definitely progress.  The Broncos intercepted Peyton Manning three times, and really stiffened up defensively in the second half.  The Broncos held the high powered Colts offense to just 27 total yards in their first seven possessions of the second half, a number that is nothing short of incredible considering Manning was at the controls.  This was after the Broncos fell behind 21-0, a broken record for the Broncos in Indianapolis.  Unlike in the past however, the Broncos kept fighting, and almost put themselves in a position to win, cutting it to 21-16 with more than nine minutes to go.  Now, in the end, Manning was Manning, but I am convinced that the Shanahan Broncos would have lost this game 40-10 or something along those lines.  The way the defense took control and gave the team a chance to come back is something that had been lacking in Denver for many years.

I would of course also be a fool not to give a tip of the cap to Brandon Marshall for his NFL record 21 receptions on Sunday, breaking a single game record previously held by Terrell Owens.   Marshall has continued to show throughout this season why he is one of the best receivers in the game and why he is almost unstoppable when his mind is right.  I think the Broncos need to make retaining him their biggest priority in the offseason.  I will say that this also means the Broncos need to take better advantage of their other weapons, especially Eddie Royal and Brandon Stokley, but it can’t be denied that Marshall is a big time playmaker who has the chance to change the outcome of games by himself each week.

It is interesting to think that the Broncos are in almost the exact same position as they were a year ago.  They currently sit with an 8-5 record, and are on the inside track for a playoff spot.  The biggest difference is they are looking up at San Diego instead of holding the three game lead that they let slip away last year, but that says a lot more about San Diego’s consistency this year than it does about the Broncos.  Considering the panic shown by almost everyone about Denver’s hectic offseason, I think their season to date shows nothing less than a tremendous achievement.  It is almost comical now to think that everyone was sure they would win less than five games and wouldn’t be worth anything.  Anyone still think Josh McDaniels should have been fired before he coached a game?  I sure don’t, and never did.  Sure the team is still a work in progress, but if they take care of business against two woefully inferior opponents at home, they will be back in the playoffs for the first since 2005 while Jay Cutler and Mike Shanahan watch on television.  That’s good enough for me.  Now, on to the picks.

Last Week: 11-5 Season: 139-67

– Jaguars over Colts: UPSET ALERT.   The Thursday night game this week is one of the most intriguing games of the week, and certainly more interesting than many of the Thursday night offerings we’ve seen so far this season.  My reasoning for this pick is relatively simple actually, even if it is a bit out there.  I think that with home field advantage cinched up the Colts will soon go into rest their starters mode and will start to take things easy as they head into the playoffs (which I think is a huge mistake and might actually prove to be their downfall in the playoffs but that’s another discussion).  In any case, even if the Colts’ starters play most or all of the game, it really doesn’t mean anything tangibly for them, whereas for Jacksonville this is practically a playoff game.  The Jaguars are currently in playoff position if the season ended today, but they know they need to keep winning to hold that position.  Also, when these teams played in week one in Indy, the Colts won 14-12.  Jacksonville has always had some success slowing down the Colts’ offense, and with Maurice Jones-Drew leading the way, they have the ability to play ball control.  Being that is practically a playoff game for the Jaguars, and that they will have a raucous home crowd behind them, I think the recipe is there for Jacksonville to pull this off, especially if Manning and other starters aren’t out there the whole time as I suspect they won’t be. 

– Saints over Cowboys: The other 13-0 team gets its shot in a rare Saturday night game this week.  Unlike the Colts, I believe the Saints will finish 16-0 because they seem more inclined to keep playing their starters as opposed to resting people.  Their schedule is also friendly enough that they just might be able to beat their last two opponents (Tampa Bay and Carolina) even while resting their starters.  In the end, I do think the Saints will suffer the same fate as the ’07 Patriots and will not win the Super Bowl, but I do think they’ll finish 16-0.  This game is more important for New Orleans than Indy’s game is this week, because the Saints still technically have not secured home field advantage yet.  Unlike the Colts, the Saints have no reason to rest anyone Saturday night even if they wanted to.  This is also an important game for the Cowboys, who are quickly fading fast in the NFC East, but it certainly doesn’t appear that they have what it takes to hang with the Saints in the Superdome right now.  The interesting thing is that Tony Romo’s numbers have actually been pretty good even in the last two losses, but I think this will turn into a shootout (especially with DeMarcus Ware likely out) and that is bad news for Dallas.  I like the Saints in a thriller.

– Patriots over Bills: As is the always the case in upstate New York this time of year, the temps will be very low and the wind will be howling.  That makes predicting any game very difficult especially if neither team is able to throw the ball, as was the case when these teams squared off in December last season.  This will likely come down to who can run the football, and in that case I give the nod to New England if nothing else because the game is meaningful for them whereas the Bills are eliminated from playoff contention.  I still think the Patriots will end up winning the AFC East due mainly to their schedule down the stretch, but they do have a big problem if Randy Moss has mentally checked out, as was clearly the case last week against Carolina. but they won’t need Moss to win this game. 

– Dolphins over Titans: This is a very interesting game because both teams are in similar position.  Both have a shot at the playoffs still, but both will very likely need to win out to have any chance at actually getting in.  Miami has a little bit more wiggle room due to their 7-6 record and the fact they still have hope of winning the division, but realistically this is an early playoff game for both teams.  Tennessee has been one of the hottest teams in the league since a disastrous 0-6 start, but one of the big reasons they’re hot may not play Sunday.  Vince Young had to come out of last week’s win against St. Louis due to a right leg injury, and frankly they are not the same team with Kerry Collins under center.  Chris Johnson is still arguably the best back in the league, but if Young isn’t in there, it may hamper Tennessee’s ability to move the football.  The Dolphins have shown in the last two weeks that they don’t need the Wildcat to have success, for that has essentially been out the window since Ronnie Brown’s season ending injury.  Ricky Williams is running well and Chad Henne is quickly showing he has the tools to be a good quarterback in the NFL.  This will be a very close game, but Miami has proven they can win tough games on the road.  I like Miami to keep their hopes alive in a squeaker. 

– Jets over Falcons: Atlanta has been a disaster since Matt Ryan and Michael Turner have been sidelined by injury.  They did give the Saints a pretty big scare in the Georgia Dome last week, but I think they used up all of their eggs so to speak in trying to win that game, so it seems inevitable that they’ll have a letdown in a tough outdoor game where bad weather is likely.  The Jets may or may not have Mark Sanchez available for this game, but Kellen Clemens gave a serviceable effort last week and may be able to do so again against an Atlanta defense that have struggled all year.  I expect another big day from Thomas Jones, and I expect the Jets to win this game without too much trouble, thus keeping their playoff hopes alive. 

– Chargers over Bengals: First and most important, our thoughts are with Chris Henry’s family.  Henry has died one day after falling out the back of a pickup truck, and now the Bengals organization is left to deal with the second tragedy of the season (Vicki Zimmer, wife of defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, died unexpectedly in October).  Comments from Bengals players indicate they will try their hardest to honor Henry and will dedicate the rest of the season to him, but it seems clear that this will be a very difficult thing for the players to fight through the rest of the way.  Cincinnati is one win away from clinching the AFC North, and they have all of the division tiebreakers in their back pocket, so I still think they’ll win the division eventually, but I just can’t see them getting it together this week to win a very challenging game on the road.  San Diego is on fire right now, and I just don’t see them slipping at home in any case.  The Chargers may well be the team to beat in the AFC.

– Ravens over Bears: This has complete mismatch written all over it.  The Ravens defense is still playing well at home, and they have shut down several bad offenses this year.  They are about to face another struggling offense in Chicago that can’t run the ball worth a lick, and I’m sure the Ravens secondary is looking forward to several good interception chances courtesy of Jay Cutler, who still leads the league in that category with 22.  Baltimore did find their offense as well last week (albeit against the Lions), and they have the look of a team that may not lose the rest of the way in the regular season.  They may need to win out to make the playoffs, but they certainly look very capable of doing that.  I like Baltimore in a blowout at home, further jeopardizing Lovie Smith’s job.

– Browns over Chiefs: I mentioned last week that the Chiefs barely avoided a tv blackout due to a last minute extension from the NFL.  This week no such extension was granted, even with more than 5,000 tickets still available earlier in the week.  As of this writing the deadline has come and gone, with no announcement as to whether the Chiefs succeeded in selling out this awful matchup.  This leads me to believe that negotiations are in progress to make the game available to Chiefs fans within a 75 mile radius of Arrowhead Stadium, but my question is why bother?  Clearly Chiefs fans are fed up enough with their team to not pay to see them, and I’m sure many of them would rather watch a meaningful and more interesting matchup on Sunday.  As for the game, it features this week’s strange but true bit of information, and that is that Brady Quinn has outplayed Matt Cassel in absolutely every statistical category over the past month, and most of the numbers aren’t even close.  The truth is that Quinn may in fact be saving his job for next season, while the Chiefs are concerned enough about Cassel’s poor play that they are reportedly going to explore other options in the offseason.  Cleveland got a monster win over Pittsburgh last week, and while a letdown could be possible, the Chiefs aren’t likely to provide strong opposition considering they couldn’t win a game last week against Buffalo that the Bills kept trying to give them.  This game is the clear dud of the week, and I hope that fans in Kansas and western Missouri aren’t actually subjected to this garbage. 

– Steelers over Packers: If Pittsburgh has any pride whatsoever, they will find a way to win this game at home.  The Steelers have dropped five straight, including dreadful ones to Kansas City, Oakland and Cleveland, and in the process have pretty much eliminated themselves from playoff contention.  Mike Tomlin has quickly gone from being the city’s crown citizen to being roasted over the coals.  This matchup in many ways looks to be a very winnable game for the Packers, who are clearly the better team and a clear contender in the NFC, but Pittsburgh is a veteran group and the players in that locker room have to be absolutely embarrassed about what has gone down in the past month.  I can’t imagine guys like Ben Roethlisberger and Hines Ward will allow this thing to slide down any further than it already has.  In the end, Green Bay will be in the playoffs and Pittsburgh won’t, but I think it will take a perfect game by Green Bay to win this one on the road.  That is, if Pittsburgh has any pride at all, and I know that those players do. 

– Texans over Rams: Houston continues its tradition of winning December games that don’t matter because they are already out of it.  Texans fans have to be tired of getting close to the playoffs every year and watching it slip away by a hair.  In the case of this year, they’ve lost two games via a missed field goal on the final play, and lost another when they let a huge lead slip away against the Colts.  I still think Houston has way too much talent not to be in the race, but I’m not going to point the finger at coach Gary Kubiak either.  I think the Texans have the pieces in place, and just need something to bring it together.  They’ll win this one quite handily, but then again who hasn’t pummeled the Rams this year?  St. Louis desperately needs help at every position, but if they have the top pick in April, I hope they have the sense to take Ndamukong Suh instead of reaching for a quarterback that isn’t worthy of the top spot. 

– Broncos over Raiders: This is clearly a game that the Broncos should win for all of the obvious reasons.  It is a home game against a bad team, one that the Broncos destroyed in week three in Oakland.  The Raiders are coming off a home loss to Washington in which they surrendered 34 points to a mediocre offense.  Granted, Oakland had been playing well since making the switch to Bruce Gradkowski, getting surprise wins against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.  Thing is, Gradkowski hurt his knee last week and may miss the rest of the season.  The Raiders have been nothing short of awful in games started by JaMarcus Russell, so much so that Russell will not get the start on Sunday.  Instead, Oakland is going with journeyman Charlie Frye, which tells me that the Raiders are so fed up with Russell that are they willing to go with anyone else if it means not having to play him.  For the Broncos, this is the type of game they have let slip away in the past (06 against San Francisco and last year against Buffalo coming to mind right away), so in that sense this is a very worrisome game for many Bronco fans precisely because it is a game they are supposed to win handily.  I still think the Broncos will get the job done, but it wouldn’t shock me if turns into a struggle or a close game.  Nevertheless, I pick the Broncos to win 24-14.

– Eagles over 49ers: This has suddenly turned into one of the better games of the week.  Philadelphia has arguably been the NFL’s most exciting team over the past few weeks, due in large part to the play of DeSean Jackson and an increased presence from Michael Vick.  The Eagles defense still has some holes, but they way they are playing offensively right now they have the potential to really make a run in the NFC.  Perhaps the most amazing part about their play is that they’ve been able to do this without Brian Westbrook, who has been absent from the lineup due to continuing concussion like symptoms.  San Francisco meanwhile believe it or not still has playoff hopes alive, although they will probably need to win out to ultimately get in.  They did show a lot last week in their thrashing against Arizona, enough to make be believe they could be a contender in 2010, but I would be surprised if they had the same kind of performance against a red hot Eagles team on the road in nasty Philadelphia.  I like the Eagles to break open a close game late and win this relatively comfortably.

– Cardinals over Lions: Arizona should be hopping mad after their embarrassing seven turnover performance on Monday night in San Francisco.  The Cardinals at times this year have looked every bit like last year’s Super Bowl team, and there have also been times like last week where they looked like the worst team in the league.  I do think that if the Cardinals play to their ability, they are capable of beating any team in the league including Indianapolis and New Orleans.  While the lack of consistency has been baffling, I don’t see any scenario in which they don’t get it together and win against the Lions on Sunday.  At that, I even expect them to blow Detroit out from the word go.  I believe last week in particular was an aberration for Kurt Warner, who otherwise has been playing some of the best football of his career this year.  As for the Lions, they can perhaps also look forward to maybe being able to draft Ndamukong Suh in April.

– Seahawks over Buccaneers: This is a close contender for dud game of the week.  Seattle has shown a few flashes here and there this year, but overall they have to be considered one of the league’s biggest disappointments.  I’m even wondering if Matt Hasselbeck is close to being done as quarterback of the Seahawks, for his numbers have taken a big tumble and he shown a complete inability at times to get the ball to his talented receivers.  I also have to think that T.J. Houshmandzadeh has to be regretting his departure from Cincinnati, watching his former team have great success without him while he once again plays for a struggling team.  Tampa Bay has been awful with the exception of their one win against Green Bay, and it is interesting to wonder how they will go about their massive rebuilding project in the offseason.  Seahawks should be able to win this one at home comfortably. 

– Vikings over Panthers: How this game ended up as the Sunday nighter is a head scratcher to say the least.  I’m sure it’s because NBC wanted to showcase Brett Favre, but didn’t they just do that two weeks ago?  I thought the point of flexible scheduling was to ensure that the Sunday night game is always a meaningful matchup, not to keep showing the same teams over and over.  In this case, I don’t see how this is anything other than a blowout in favor of the visiting Vikings.  Minnesota bounced back nicely last week and blew out  a very good Bengals team, while Carolina couldn’t get anything going against New England.  There is a chance the Panthers could consider this game to be their Super Bowl of sorts and come out guns blazing, but I don’t see how they will be able to run on the Vikings front four or contain Minnesota’s offense.  I still stand by my preseason pick of the Vikings winning the Super Bowl, and if they are going to live up to that, they shouldn’t be slipping up in a game like this. 

– Giants over Redskins: The Monday night is a curious choice as well, only because I’m not sure who actually thought the Redskins would be competitive when the schedule was announced back in April (On that note why is Washington on Sunday night next week?  Seriously the schedule makers are either being really lazy or actually think we want to be subjected to bad teams in prime time.)  Granted, the Redskins have been playing better lately, but they are still not in any way a playoff team, and I would think that this time of year the meaningful games should be showcased, not necessarily those involved big east coast markets.  The Giants are continuing to fade very quickly, especially on the defensive side of the ball, where they surrendered a staggering 45 points to the Eagles last week, but I still think they are a team that no one would want to see in the playoffs because of their ability to score points offensively.  It remains to be seen whether or not they will actually make the playoffs, but I like them to win this game primarily because I can’t envision a Jason Campbell-led offense being able to keep up with the G-men if they are scoring points the way they have in the past two weeks.