Last week: 2-2
Last week we had two blowouts, a game for the ages, and one boring game that could have easily gone the other way if the losing team didn’t sleepwalk through the contest on their home field. Of the eight teams remaining, I would say more than half of them can make a realistic case for the Super Bowl. This is often the most exciting round of the playoffs, and this year shouldn’t disappoint. Games listed in chronological order of when they will take place.
Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints: This on paper has the makings of a repeat of last week’s aerial show between the Cardinals and Packers, in which Arizona won an overtime thriller 51-45. Last week Kurt Warner had perhaps his best playoff game ever, and that includes his days with the Rams. Warner’s performance was no impressive that he threw more touchdown passes (5) than incomplete passes (4). Think about that for a moment. He had more touchdown passes than incompletions, which is practically unheard of. If Warner keeps playing like that, I’m not sure who the Cardinals would end up losing to. Arizona’s offense also could get a lift this week with the return of Anquan Boldin, although Early Doucet was terrific filling in for Boldin (6 catches 77 yards 2 TDs) and Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston also had good numbers against the Packers. The Cardinals also got good balance from Beanie Wells, who rushed for 91 yards on just 14 carries. For those of you who are not math majors, that’s 6.5 yards per carry. That proves that it’s not just passing that carried the Cardinals offense. If they keep getting that kind of running game to go with it, they could end up proving to be very tough to beat indeed. The flip side for the Cardinals is the defensive side of the ball. Although they got two early turnovers against the Packers’ offense and ended up winning the game with a fumble return TD in overtime, they still surrendered 45 points and managed to blow a 31-10 lead that had been provided to them by the offense. This does not bode well as they head on the road to face an offense that on the whole is more talented and has more big play potential than the Packers. If the Cardinals are always going to need to score 40 points to win, eventually they will come up short, that’s just the way it is.
The Saints were arguably the league’s best team during the first half of the season, but they arguably peaked during a Monday night thrashing of the Patriots in late November. Since then, the Saints needed a furious rally to beat the porous Redskins, struggled to beat a non-playoff team in Atlanta, and then proceeded to lose its final three games (home against red hot Dallas, a stunner against awful Tampa Bay, and a throwaway at Carolina in which the starters didn’t play). That means it has been a month and a half since the Saints have looked sharp, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The good news for New Orleans is that everyone should be well rested and fresh, and they will enjoy what I think is the best home field advantage of the four teams that will be hosting this weekend. The bad news for the Saints is rustiness could be a big problem, especially if they fall behind by a couple of scores early, which is possible given that the Cardinals are confident and not showing any sign of slowing down offensively. The key for the Saints may be how well they can keep up with Arizona on the scoreboard, and I think that shouldn’t be a problem with Drew Brees at the controls and a set of receivers that may not have the sexiness of Arizona’s but is every bit as productive in Marques Colston, Lance Moore and Robert Meachem. The Saints also showed during the year they can run the ball with Pierre Thomas, but they may also need improved play from Reggie Bush in order to reach the Super Bowl. Defensively, the Saints’ struggled mightly against the run especially in the second half of the season. These struggles weren’t as obvious during the first half of the year when the Saints had huge leads and opponents had to abandon the run altogether, but was evident when the Saints were in closer games late in the year. Their secondary is outstanding, particularly Darren Sharper, so that could make the difference against the Cardinals passing game.
This should be another high scoring, entertaining affair. This may not be your game if you like hard hitting and defense, but it will be definitely be the one to tune in to if you like points and fireworks. I think it is quite the contrast between a team with momentum in its favor versus a team that could be rusty from inactivity but has had plenty of time off to heal injuries and get healthy. I think a lot of times the team with momentum would have the big edge, but I think the combination of the home crowd and the bye has proven to be a very good track record in the NFL over the years. In the Saints’ case I think they will get a tremendous boost of energy from their home crowd, and while both offenses should put up lots of points, I like the Saints on a hunch to pull this one out, maybe even by a few more points than people expect. New Orleans 35 Arizona 24.
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts: This is a rematch of a game we saw in mid-November, which the Colts won in Baltimore 17-15. The Ravens are going to need Saturday night’s rematch to unfold in similar fashion if they want to have a chance. In the first meeting, the Ravens actually forced a pair of Peyton Manning interceptions, but they did allow the Colts’ signal caller to pass for more than 300 yards. As high powered as the Colts’ offense can be though, holding them to 17 points can give you a great chance to win most of the time. Offensively the Ravens had great success through the air themselves, and were able to generate over 350 yards of total offense. What proved to be Baltimore’s downfall in November was they were 0 for 4 in the red zone and settled for five field goals overall. If you want to beat Indy, you must score touchdowns. It sounds obvious and simple, but if you can’t put the ball in the end zone, you’re not going to be able to keep up with Peyton Manning, period.
There is a lot of pressure on the Colts to win this game for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is that they voluntarily torched their perfect season and shot at history in the interest of keeping players healthy. While I have delved into this topic in several previous posts, I will again state that NFL history has proven that teams who rest players late in the season for multiple weeks when they’ve already clinched tend to lose in the playoffs, often in the first round. This means the Colts will be dealing with the pressure of trying to prove that their actions were correct against numbers that say otherwise. This is particularly true for the Colts, who are 0-3 in the Manning era in the divisional round when they’ve enjoyed a bye (1999, 2005 and 2007). 2005 in particular bears mention because the Colts had a 13-0 start that year just like this one, clinched several weeks early, sat Manning and other starters for the final two games, and lost at home to a physical and hot Pittsburgh team in the playoffs. In that game the Colts got dominated on both sides of the line of scrimmage and basically got punched in the mouth while looking extremely rusty and showing a complete lack of timing until they got it together too late in the second half. The next year in 2006, the Colts were the three seed and therefore not in a position to rest players, and they were able to generate enough momentum to win the Super Bowl. Long story short, if the Colts lose on Saturday, they will never hear the end of it from their fans and other naysayers who will say they botched the season by not going all out for the 19-0. There is also pressure on Manning, who by all accounts could go down as the best quarterback of all-time, but with only one Super Bowl victory is looked as second fiddle to Tom Brady in many circles. No doubt Manning is eager for another title to further solidify his credentials in NFL history. This year’s Colts team does have the making of an elite team, for they’ve got great talent at receiver with Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, they can run the ball much of the time and defensively they are able to get a pass rush with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. It is interesting to note though the Colts didn’t blow many teams out, and most of the time were able to pull out close games in the fourth quarter. I think though that I do not see how the Colts are a slam dunk Super Bowl pick at all, simply because it has been a month since they have played hard in a meaningful game and also because while they are very good, they don’t seem to be head and shoulders above the other AFC contenders.
For the Ravens, they are coming off a demolition of New England on the road in which they forced three first quarter turnovers and had put 24 points on the board before many viewers had even turned on the television. This has the look of other wild card teams from the past that have been able to make deep playoff runs: they can run the ball with Ray Rice, they don’t turn it over, and their defense, while not as spectacular as the 2000 team, is still very good and very physical. Last week they were able to get all kinds of pressure on Tom Brady, so there is no reason to think they can’t pressure Manning. Baltimore also is not afraid to play on the road. Even though it’s only the second year of John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco, the Ravens are 3-1 on the road in the playoffs the past two years. On Saturday, Baltimore is going to need a better game from Flacco than they got last week, but in that game Flacco didn’t have to do much. It’s hard to imagine the Ravens will completely be able to rely on the ground against Indy, but if they can get balance, then they have a better chance to be effective. Again it will boil down to red zone execution, and last week the Ravens were able to cash in their chances.
I have a hunch that this game will be eerily similar to the 2005 Steelers-Colts playoff game. I a lot of ways I feel like I’ve seen this movie before. I sense that the Ravens, fired up and with momentum, will dominate the line of scrimmage at the beginning, putting pressure on Manning while he and the Colts’ receivers struggle to find long lost timing. I also think the Ravens will be able to generate enough offense on the ground to put some points on the board. Most importantly, I sense the Ravens’ defense will be able to pull a repeat of November and force a turnover or two. I think this will not necessarily be a high scoring game, and that suits the Ravens just fine. While I think Manning will be productive as usual, I just think the Colts made a huge mistake of epic proportions three weeks ago and it will bite them, while the Ravens are like a freight train charging through the station. I know I’m alone on this one, for everyone else in the free world is already handing the Colts the Lombardi trophy, but I’m going with the upset on this one. Baltimore 20 Indianapolis 17.
Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings: To me, this game is between the top two teams in the NFC (no offense to New Orleans), and it is a real shame that this isn’t the NFC championship game. Nevertheless, this should be a fantastic game. The Cowboys are playing as well as any team in the league right now, and they are playing with a confidence such that they are capable of running the table and winning the entire thing. Dallas looked like they were in the midst of another late season swoon in early December, but now they have reeled off four wins in a row, including two straight against the division rival Eagles in which the Cowboys demolished them both times. Their win last week was the first for the franchise in the playoffs since 1996, and it looks like it is more than enough to save Wade Phillips’ job for 2010. Tony Romo continues to play lights out, and the receiving core, and in fact the entire locker room, is in much better shape since the departure of Terrell Owens in the offseason. Miles Austin has emerged as one of the best receivers in all of football, and the Cowboys have been able to compliment that with a superb running game. Last week was particularly impressive because they didn’t have Marion Barber, although they didn’t skip a beat with Felix Jones and Tashard Choice leading the way. Most of all, they are dominating the line of scrimmage both offensively and defensively. The defense in particular has really caused problems for Donovan McNabb the past two weeks, and it will be interesting to see if DeMarcus Ware and company can keep the pressure going against the Vikings offensive line. In short the Cowboys are red hot, have a ton of momentum, and don’t show many signs of slowing down. They are peaking at the right time, which is always half the battle of winning in the playoffs.
The Vikings were my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl, and they looked the part for the first three months of the season before they lost three of four (all on the road) in December. I still think they are the most talented team in the NFL if everything is clicking, and in actually they, unlike most of the other teams that enjoyed the bye, are trending up as they head into the playoffs, owing to their blowout win over the Giants in the final game. It can even be argued that offensively they started to get it together the previous week against Chicago even though they lost the game. Minnesota still has all the ingredients necessary to win: they can run the ball thanks to Adrian Peterson and a superb offensive line, they can compliment that with the pass thanks to Brett Favre and talented receivers, and their defensive front seven might be the best in football, led by Jared Allen, Pat Williams and Kevin Williams. The secondary is also very good when everyone is on the same page, and the bye should in particular help Antoine Winfield get healthy. The biggest issue facing the Vikings during the last month of the season was the drama between Brad Childress and Brett Favre, but that seems to have faded away, and the bye should be a benefit to Minnesota in that regard also.
I have really gone back and forth on this game. The Cowboys are the league’s hottest team and that alone makes it tough to pick against them, plus they have all the momentum in their favor a team could ever want. Minnesota is at home in the loud Metrodome and should get a lift from that, plus they’ve enjoyed the bye. I think it is interesting how many people are picking Dallas simply because it’s not the Vikings are a pushover, and while they didn’t have a great December they did seem to have it together in the final game, albeit against the Giants. I think Brett Favre’s postseason history also gives people pause, but he doesn’t have to do everything by himself this time. In the end I decided I picked the Vikings to win it all in the preseason and I’m going to stick with them and not waffle. As I said it is too bad this isn’t the NFC title game. Minnesota 28 Dallas 24.
New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers: This game on paper seems to be the biggest mismatch of the week to me, which generally means that whatever I’m thinking the game is sure to go the other way. In any case, the Jets have to be one of the luckiest teams in NFL history. They got two gimmie wins during the end of the regular season against teams who weren’t even attempting to win, and then last week they drew a Bengals team that wasn’t playing to anywhere near its capability in the playoffs. Even if Shayne Graham had made the two chip shot field goals he missed, Cincinnati would have been in position to tie or take the lead with a drive at the end of the game. This is not to say the Jets don’t deserve any credit, but let’s face it, this team backed into the playoffs on luck and they are very fortunate to still be alive and kicking. They have won in spite of subpar numbers from Mark Sanchez at quarterback, although to his credit he has not turned the ball over and is simply taking what the hand he is dealt on running with it. The Jets have also done an amazing job running the ball with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene, and their defense has been very stout against the run (although they did allow a couple of long runs to Cedric Benson last week), and they have been able to get pressure on opposing QBs (but really does Curtis Painter even count?). I realize this sounds very much like sour grapes, but I just think the Jets got in the playoffs largely thanks to other teams tanking games and they have been very fortunate. That doesn’t mean they don’t have talent to win, but I think now that they are about to face one of the league’s elite teams on the road, they are in for a very rude awakening indeed.
This year the Chargers have played to the capability many of us have expected from them the past few seasons. Despite a 2-3 start and a three game deficit created a fast start from Denver, the Chargers ran away with the AFC West title thanks to an 11-game winning streak that is active heading into the playoffs. We talk all the time about the importance of momentum heading into the playoffs, and there is no question the Chargers have it. During their winning streak the Chargers were able to win road games in Dallas, Denver, Tennessee and against the New York Giants. The Chargers have gotten elite play at quarterback from Philip Rivers, who have proven to be tough in the pocket and very accurate with his throws, and he has a stable of receivers to throw to, especially Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates (side note: Darrelle Revis, even as good as he is, can’t cover both of them). They also have the ability to run the ball, even though LaDainian Tomlinson has slipped from previous years. It is a big help for the Chargers that Darren Sproles has proven capable of taking a few carries and is also a terrific weapon out of the backfield. In short, the Chargers have a quick strike ability to score at any time, and seem to put 30 points on the board right after they step off the bus. Defensively, the Chargers have proven able to force turnovers and also hold opposing offenses out of the end zone.
I think the Chargers are the team to beat in the AFC right now. They have not had a bad game since October so there is no reason to expect one now. I think the Jets have lived on luck for three weeks now and they about to run into a buzzsaw that could shred them in the first quarter if they aren’t careful. Don’t think also that the Chargers don’t have plenty of bulletin board material, especially the part about Rex Ryan having already scheduled the Jets Super Bowl parade. I think the Chargers roll so emphatically that the Jets finally get exposed as a lucky, overrated team. San Diego 38 NY Jets 13.
1. San Diego Chargers – Last year’s Chargers season would be a huge disappointment by the standards of most teams. This sounds like a very strange statement considering they won the division, won a playoff game against Peyton Manning and the Colts, and gave the Super Bowl champion Steelers a very good game in the second round of the playoffs. However, the Chargers had gone to the AFC title game the year before, came in with a roster virtually unchanged, and were expected to take a monster leap in the standings. However, the Chargers really stumbled out of the gate, sitting at 4-8 through 12 games. They did manage to win their last four games to finish 8-8, and were able to back into the division title thanks to an epic collapse by Denver. The fact that the Chargers hosted the Colts in the playoffs despite finishing 8-8 says more about the current NFL playoff system than anything else. This year, the Chargers are clear runaway favorites in what perhaps is the worst division in football. The question is do they have enough to beat the NFL’s elite in the playoffs?
2. Denver Broncos – I put the Broncos at number two in this division with a couple of asterisks. One, this is weak division and someone has to finish second, even if their record is going to end up 6-10 or 7-9. Second, I like new coach Josh McDaniels and I think he has a good system. I also think the Broncos could surprise some people and win more games than everyone expects. The Broncos surprised the entire league when they fired Mike Shanahan, and they shocked the NFL even more when they traded quarterback Jay Cutler. (I have reviewed and analyzed that deal in several previous posts – basically I think it might not end up as bad long term for Denver as everyone thinks.) They have also had to deal with the Brandon Marshall fiasco. All this after they blew a three game lead with three games to play last season, and missed the playoffs altogether for the third straight year.
3. Kansas City Chiefs – It is a major understatement to say that Kansas City needed a complete overhaul after last season’s disastrous 2-14 campaign. The Chiefs defense was awful, surrendering 30 or more points seven times, including a whopping 54 to an average Bills attack at home. The offense put up its share of numbers at times, but lacked any real playmakers in the passing game outside of Gonalez. The Chiefs will have a very different look in 2009. Gone are head coach Herm Edwards, General Manager Carl Peterson, and a host of veteran players including Gonzalez, whose trade request was accommodated by new management. In are new coach Todd Haley, new GM Scott Pioli (architect of the New England dynasty), and new direction. This team is clearly rebuilding, and the question is how competitive will they be?
4. Oakland Raiders – This organization is the biggest joke in the NFL. I’m just saying that because I am a Denver guy, but it is very clearly a joke. The ironic thing is this team actually showed more life after last year’s coaching change from Lane Kiffin to Tom Cable, even winning their final two games against Houston and Tampa Bay. However, this offseason has been another illustration that this team just doesn’t know what it’s doing. I think it starts with owner Al Davis, who still has his fingers in everything and for whom the game has long passed him by. During training camp Cable seems to have actually punched one of his assistants. Cue the Days of Our Lives music in Oakland.
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