In a lot of ways the Broncos game in Oakland today was a carbon copy of the one they played last week against Cleveland.  The Broncos played an outstanding defensive game, ran the ball very effectively, won the turnover battle, and ultimately earned a decisive victory against well, a team that should have beaten, beating the pitiful Oakland Raiders 23-3.  I’ll be the first to say that the Broncos once again benefited today from the schedule makers.  The Raiders are not even close to a contending team, so that does temper the kool aid drinking just a tad from those of us here in Broncos country.  However, a good team is supposed to take care of the bad ones, and that is what the Broncos have done so far this season.  (In fact, the opening road win against Cincinnati is suddenly looking very impressive being that the Broncos held them to just seven points).

As with the first two games, you once again need to start with the defense for the Broncos.  They got two more sacks from Elvis Dumervil, who has six so far through the first three games.  They forced three more turnovers, including two interceptions by JaMarcus Russell.  The first interception came early in the game after the Broncos failed on a fourth and goal from the one.  This pick helping swing momentum back to Denver and set up the first score, a touchdown pass to Brandon Marshall (more on him in a moment).  The second interception set up a field goal that made it 10-0.  The third turnover came on a crucial fumble recovery in the third quarter.  The Raiders had just recovered a Correll Buckhalter fumble and were driving for a score that would get them back in the game.  Darren McFadden took a toss right and was sprinting down the sideline for what looked like a score.  Suddenly, D.J. Williams came out of nowhere and leveled McFadden, knocking the ball free.  Brian Dawkins happened to be run out of bounds, but he had the presence of mind to establish both feet in bounds quickly, then pounce on the loose ball along the sideline.  Ultimately the Broncos were plus two in turnovers, and that proved to be very key in the victory.  Besides the turnovers, the Broncos also held the Raiders to just 137 total yards, including a mere 61 passing from Russell.  I don’t care who the opponent is, those defensive numbers are nothing short of terrific.  Consider that the Broncos are allowing a mere 5.3 points per game so far this season.

Offensively, a look at Kyle Orton’s numbers doesn’t indicate anything spectacular (13-23 for 157 yards and touchdown), but he once again managed the game well.  He avoided any interceptions for the third game in a row, and he added another win to his total as a starting quarterback.  He made some key throws at important times, and he continues to show good decision making abilities.  Amazingly, there was also a Brandon Marshall sighting.  The receiver who is now known for his attitude problem caught five balls for 67 yards and the team’s initial touchdown of the game.  Marshall made several good catches today, and for the first time this season actually played like he wanted to be out on the field.  He showed actual fire and it was clear watching him today that he was playing hard and playing to win.  The Broncos will need him to continue to play this way going forward.  This was critical today because Eddie Royal was held to just one catch for four yards and Brandon Stokley was nonexistent.  Ultimately though, the key for the Broncos offense is the running game, and it was again terrific today.  Correll Buckhalter rushed for 108 yards (averaging 7.7 yards per carry) and Knowshon Moreno added 90 yards and his first career touchdown.  This for Moreno despite the fact that he was questionable to even play with a groin injury.  The running game helped the Broncos get a 13 minute edge in time of possession, and that will continue to be a big key for the Broncos as their schedule toughens up in the coming weeks.

Some other observations:

– For the second straight week the Broncos offense left a lot of potential points on the board.  Besides coming up empty on the first drive after a failed fourth and goal, the Broncos twice settled for red zone field goals.  If the offense can start capitalizing on these chances, it could be scary for their opponents.  That being said, the Broncos must shore up this area and quick.

– The Denver offensive line did a great job once again.  The line held Oakland without a sack in addition to leading the way for the rushing attack.

– Jabar Gaffney has quietly been a good acquisition for the Broncos, catching four more passes today for 39 yards.

– I knew the game was being blacked out in Oakland due to a non sellout, but I didn’t expect the sea of empty green seats in the Oakland Alameda Coliseum.  Granted the Raiders haven’t exactly given their fans much of a product to watch, but at this rate it will interesting to see how long the East Bay can even support the Raiders at all.

– JaMarcus Russell is a huge disappointment.  Check that, disappointment isn’t a strong enough word, how about awful.  Right now he’s not even close to being a starting caliber quarterback.  The only reason he is still starting is because the Raiders aren’t about to go to Bruce Gradkowski.

– The schedule definitely gets tougher for the Broncos next week as they host Dallas.  That begins a stretch of five games that will tell us a lot more about this Broncos team.  Until then, they are 3-0, and that is the stat that matters at the moment.

It seems strange after the tumultuous offseason the Broncos have had, but they have a very legitimate shot to start the season 3-0.  Granted, this is largely because they are benefiting from a very friendly start to the season schedule wise, but nevertheless the Broncos so far have taken advantage of that.  Besides, I still maintain the week one win against Cincinnati was not a gimmie (more on the Bengals in my picks below).  Sunday at Oakland is another winnable game the Broncos need to take advantage of because the schedule gets a lot tougher very soon.

In recent years the Broncos have played very well in the Black Hole (let’s be honest here, who hasn’t).  Denver has won five of its past six meetings in Oakland, and overall the Broncos have won 9 of their past 12 games against the Raiders.  While the fans in Oakland certainly try to give the Raiders an intimidating home environment, this has simply not been the case.  In fact, things have gotten so bad in the East Bay that the game will be blacked out locally due to a non-sellout.  The Raiders are so desperate to sell tickets they are offering a free $100 gift card to a local grocery store with the purchase of two tickets.  That lack of support never inspires much confidence in the home team, but really it is more a reflection of the Raiders’ futility.  Oakland is the only team in the NFL to have a losing record in each of the past six seasons, and they appear to be on track to make it seven in a row.

Now, getting to the matchup, I am still trying to figure out how the Raiders managed to win in Kansas City last week.  JaMarcus Russell was awful, throwing for less than 150 yards, and managing to miss a number of open receivers in the process.  The running game was non existent, as both Darren McFadden and Michael Bush were held to less than 50 yards rushing.  No receiver caught more than two passes, and the leading receiver from a year ago, tight end Zach Miller, was held without a catch.  The Raiders have talent, but they are very young at every position offensively, especially wide receiver, where two rookies start: Darrius Heyward-Bey and Louis Murphy.  Strangely enough, Murphy has been by far the more impressive of the two in the first two games, despite being selected three rounds later than Heyward-Bey in April’s draft.  While the Raiders have under achieved so far this year for their talent, the fact is the talent is there and can beat you if you’re not careful.  Defensively, the Raiders have been very good, especially last week, in getting pressure on the quarterback.  The impact of Richard Seymour, acquired in trade from the Patriots right before week one, has been huge.  His presence has opened up everything for the defense.  The secondary has also been outstanding, with Michael Huff intercepting three passes already.  I also maintain that Nnamdi Asomugha is the best cornerback in the NFL.

The Broncos haven’t been spectacular offensively, but they have gotten the job done.  Kyle Orton has yet to throw a pick in two games, living up to his reputation as a quarterback who doesn’t make costly mistakes.  Orton hasn’t been flashy, but he has made the throws he has needed to make.  The Broncos do need more from Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal.  Marshall has seven catches through two games but has not even been close to his old self.  He was on the sideline for long stretches against Cleveland, and in the long run the Broncos are going to need him.  Royal has also been shut down the first two games while being bothered with an ankle injury.  He is expected to be healthy against the Raiders, but could end up drawing a bad matchup in Asomugha.  In this game, it will be critical once again for Brandon Stokley and Jabar Gaffney to step up, as both did with big games against the Browns.  The biggest key for the Broncos though is they need to run the football.  Correll Buckhalter and Knowshon Moreno split carries against Cleveland, and I would expect the same against Oakland.  Both were productive last week and will need to be against the Raiders to stay out of third and long, where the Raiders defense has freely blitzed opposing QBs so far.  Defensively, the Broncos have been nothing short of outstanding, allowing just 13 points in their first two games.  The Broncos also rank second in the NFL in turnover ratio at plus four.  If they can get pressure on Russell and slow down the Raiders’ running game, I definitely like their chances to keep that trend going at least for another week.

In the end I expect this to be just like the first two Broncos’ games: another low scoring defensive battle.  Both defenses have been very good in the first two weeks, while both offenses have moved the ball at times but not with any real consistency.  I think turnovers almost always decide games like this, and I expect the Broncos defense to be able to come up with one before Oakland’s will.  I think the Broncos will be able to run the ball just well enough, and I think their defense will be able to slow down Oakland’s speed.

The Pick: Broncos 20 Raiders 10

Now, the rest of the week three picks:

Last week: 10-6 Season: 23-9

– Bills over Saints: UPSET ALERT.  I know Drew Brees has been awesome the first two games.  I also know this will be in the wind in Buffalo.  I still think the Bills will be a player in December.  I like them at home in the upset.

– Chargers over Dolphins: This actually seems pretty shaky considering Tomlinson and Merriman are both banged up, but I think Rivers and Sproles will make enough plays at home.  Miami is quickly finding reality after last season’s surprise run.

– Patriots over Falcons: I went back and forth on this one for several minutes.  Something doesn’t seem right with the Patriots, while Atlanta has been very impressive.  This is the first road game for the Falcons however, and I think New England figures out a way to not lose two in a row.  Either way this should be a great game.

– Titans over Jets: The thought of Tennessee at 0-3 is nothing short of ridiculous, and thus I can’t pick anything else here.  The Titans are hopping mad after letting one slip away at home. and I sense a letdown for the Jets after their huge win over New England.

– Bengals over Steelers: UPSET ALERT.  Pittsburgh is without Troy Polamalu.  Besides that, the Bengals offense looked scary good in Green Bay while the Steelers have been unable to run the ball in either of their first two games.  Paul Brown Stadium will be rocking.  I like Cincinnati in the stunner.

– Ravens over Browns:  Baltimore by a lot.  Let’s move on to a more competitive game.

– Texans over Jaguars: Houston made a statement last week in Tennessee.  If Matt Schaub is throwing like that Sunday, Jacksonville is in real trouble.  The Jags should score some points with Maurice Jones-Drew leading the way, but I like the Texans at home.

– Eagles over Chiefs: Even if Kevin Kolb is starting for Philly, the Eagles won’t have any trouble outscoring the Chiefs in this one.  The Kansas City offense looked very lost with Matt Cassel last week, and it won’t get any better against the Eagles.

– Giants over Buccaneers: Byron Leftwich has actually looked good the first two games for Tampa, but the defense is awful.  Eli Manning and company keep proving they  should be no brainer playoff pick for everyone.  The Giants should win easily here even on the road.

– Bears over Seahawks: No Matt Hasselbeck, no chance for Seattle.  The Bears made a statement last week and should be able to do enough to get a road win here.  Expect a big game from Matt Forte.

– Lions over Redskins: UPSET ALERT.  The game will be blacked out in Detroit (more than 10,000 seats are still available), but I think the Redskins looked awful last week and only won because they were playing the much worse Rams.  This time, the Lions do just enough and finally remember what winning a game feels like.

– Packers over Rams: Speaking of the Rams, being at home isn’t going to help them much.  The Packers are fuming after losing one at home last week. Aaron Rodgers will have a field day here.  Start every Packer you have in fantasy this week.

– Vikings over 49ers: San Francisco is nice story at 2-0, but they aren’t going to get it done in the Metrodome.  Should be fun to watch with Frank Gore and Adrian Peterson, but in the end the Vikings defense is just stronger.

– Colts over Cardinals: This should be a very entertaining Sunday night game.  Kurt Warner proved last week he can still sling it, but in the end it is difficult to pick against Peyton Manning in a game like this.  The Colts have proven that it doesn’t matter who is hurt, and they will once again figure out how to pull out a squeaker.

– Cowboys over Panthers: Dallas gets another prime time showcase for the glitzy new stadium, this time on Monday night.  This time I think the Cowboys win in their new house.  The Jake Delhomme watch is still on in the Carolinas.

Surely what I saw today was a bad dream.  I’m going to wake up from my nightmare any moment and realize that the Broncos-Raiders game hasn’t really kicked off yet.  I’m going to realize that the embarrassing 31-10 loss that I saw the Broncos suffer today will actually be reversed when I wake up.  Surely the Broncos really didn’t lose the turnover battle (again).  Surely they didn’t allow an 88-yard punt return touchdown to someone named Johnnie Lee Higgins right before halftime.  Surely Matt Prater didn’t actually miss two first half field goals.  Surely the Broncos’ red zone failures didn’t really come back to haunt them in the form of a lost fumble inside the Oakland five yard line on the first drive of the game.  I had to be hallucinating, was that really disgraced ex-Bronco Ashley Lelie ripping the ball away from Dre’ Bly and then later catching a touchdown pass while wearing the silver and black?  Was Eddie Royal really held to just 14 yards receiving?  Was Mike Shanahan really calling a running play on 3rd and 15 in Raider territory in the fourth quarter?  Were there really the thousands of Raider fans in the stands on Invesco Field that there appeared to be on TV?  I mean, that has to be a bad dream right?  The Broncos wouldn’t have allowed themselves to get embarrassed like that in an important division game right?

Truth is, the Broncos should be embarrassed for how they performed today.  It is unbelievable on so many levels that the Broncos still own a two game lead in the AFC West after giving that kind of performance, owing to the Chargers’ loss at home to Indianapolis (side note: how upset are Chargers fans right now after San Diego failed to take advantage of Denver’s collapse today?).  I will say that the Raiders deserve a ton of credit for their performance.  This is a franchise that in many ways became the official joke of the league after Al Davis dismissed Lane Kiffin, but Tom Cable has more less kept things from really falling apart.  The Raiders do after all have a win against the 8-3 Jets on their resume, and they also had fourth quarter leads against Buffalo, San Diego, and Miami, and they somehow held Carolina to one of the worst passing days in Panthers history.  The Raiders didn’t look like a 3-8 team today, and I’m sure Denver’s ineptitude had a lot to do with that, but the Raiders played with a lot of energy especially on defense.  I still say Nnamdi Asomugha is certainly a top three cornerback in the league, but he never gets credit because no one ever throws his direction.  I say he would be a multiple time Pro Bowler if he wasn’t a Raider.  He didn’t register a single tackle today, but his mere presence in the secondary disrupted Denver’s passing game, especially since the rest of the Oakland secondary did a good job too.  The Raiders also did a good job in the running game, especially on their final drive of the game, when they were able to kill off the last six minutes without Denver getting the ball back.  

That being said, the Broncos did not come out with the intensity you would expect of a big division game.  In retrospect, it should have been easy to see this coming earlier in the week when the players were saying things like, “We’re not concerned about the rivalry, we just want to win” or “They may be 2-8 but we can’t afford to overlook them”.  It used to be that the Broncos would be fired up for the Raiders whether they were 9-2 or 2-9, it never mattered.  Broncos Raiders used to always be the biggest game on the schedule.  Bad Broncos teams were capable of beating good Raiders teams and vice versa.  I suppose that was still true today, but the point is I got the impression watching the game today that the Broncos were treating it like any other game while the Raiders were fired up to play a big rival.  Oakland had a particular chip on its shoulder after getting waxed by the Broncos 41-14 in week one, and Denver seemed like it really had a letdown after two big road wins.  Even after the Broncos tied it at 10 in the third quarter, it still seemed like something was missing.  It even seemed as though the crowd was having a hard time getting into the game, which should never happen at a Broncos-Raiders game. 

The following sequence should in many ways sum up the Broncos ineptitude especially on offense.  It illustrates that even when the Broncos were given gifts (four Oakland penalties in this case), they got nothing out of it.  This was the last drive of the first half, after Higgins’ punt return gave Oakland a 10-3 lead:

    – 1st & 10 at DEN 26 (:59 seconds left): Oakland penalty, illegal contact – 5 yards

    – 1st & 10 at DEN 31 (:54): Jay Cutler incomplete deep to Eddie Royal – nearly intercepted

    – 2nd & 10 at DEN 31 (:48): Cutler short pass to Brandon Marshall, which he is able to turn into a 20 yard gain

    – 1st & 10 at OAK 49 (31): Cutler spikes ball, Oakland penalty – 12 men on field (declined), Oakland penalty – offsides (accepted)

     – 1st & 5 at OAK 44 (44): Cutler incomplete to Royal, completely blanketed by Asomugha, Oakland penalty – roughing the passer on Thomas Howard – 15 yards (I’ll be honest, this was not a good call, but the Broncos benefited)

     –  1st & 10 at OAK 29 (:22): Cutler runs up the middle for four yards on a designed keeper

     –  2nd & 6 at OAK 25 (:04): Cutler spikes ball, after the team stays in formation at the line of scrimmage for 10 seconds after getting set

     – 3rd & 6 at OAK 25 (:04): Matt Prater 43 yard field goal sails wide right

Now, to be fair, the Broncos were out of timeouts, and were probably thinking field goal upon starting the drive at their own 26 with a minute remaining.  They might have been thinking about even playing it safe and just not turning it over.  But, they got a gift of four Raiders penalties on the drive, including the roughing the passer that was at best questionable as it was not a late hit and Thomas did not go for Cutler’s head.  Nevertheless, the Broncos failed to turn this gift call into any points.  They were at the Raider 29 yard line with 22 seconds left.  Even with no timeouts, they had plenty of time to at the very least take a shot at the end zone or try a sideline pass or two to either get a closer field goal attempt or even try to get in position where you could more easily run a play that would allow you a shot at six points.  Instead, the Broncos called a designed run for Cutler to stay in the middle of the field, feeling confident that Prater could hit a 40-45 yarder.  After Cutler’s run, he was clearly in no hurry to spike the ball.  If the Broncos had called a sideline pass, say they even get 7-8 yards.  If such a play is run properly, it can be run in 7-8 seconds, so the Broncos had time to try two quick sideline routes.  Assuming the runner got out of bounds on both, the Broncos at the very least could have been looking at 30 yard try instead of a 40 yarder, which is a much higher success rate for any kicker.  It might have even given them time to try for the end zone.  I know Prater has been reliable most of the season, but he did miss a 47-yarder earlier in the game heading the same direction.  The Broncos wasted 30 valuable seconds where they had plenty of time for multiple plays to at the very least get closer for a higher percentage field goal attempt.

This is not to say that particular sequence decided the game by any means, I am merely using it as one example to show that the Broncos offense was not in sync most of the afternoon.  Here is a summary of the Broncos’ final three drives, starting right after the Raiders took a 17-10 lead with 5:26 remaining in the third quarter:

  – (starting at 5:26 3rd qtr) 3 plays, 0 yards, 47 seconds, punt (led to an Oakland TD)

  – (starting at 14:08 4th qtr) 3 plays, 2 yards, 34 seconds, interception (led to an Oakland TD)

  – (starting at 9:42 4th qtr) 8 plays, 42 yards, 2:55, turnover on downs

The last Broncos drive ended with 6:47 remaining in the game, which the Raiders were able to milk off the clock while running 10 plays. Overall, the Raiders held the ball for 15 of the game’s final 20 minutes.  Combine that second half time of possession dominance by Oakland with Denver’s two turnovers to Oakland’s none in the game, and you have a recipe for defeat by the Broncos.  

It is really important for the Broncos to put this one behind them immediately.  It seems strange, but even coming off this loss and sporting a 6-5 record, the Broncos still own a two game lead in the AFC West with five games to play.  Denver has a very difficult road game next week against the red hot Jets, who are coming off two huge wins including a rout of the previously unbeaten Titans today.  Denver in many ways seems to rise to the occasion when it’s assumed they have no chance, while falling flat when they’re expected to do well.  Denver has to hope that what happened today is an aberration, because they still are in the driver’s seat for the division title and a home game in the first round of the playoffs (that may not be a good thing, considering the Broncos have dropped three straight home games).  Their defense should a boost soon with the return of Champ Bailey and D.J. Williams, but the offense needs to get some consistency in a hurry.  In the meantime, I can still hold out hope that I’m about to wake up from my dream and the Broncos-Raiders game hasn’t really kicked off yet…….