Reid Fischer's World of Rants

Looking at the sports world through orange colored glasses

Is Carmelo the next to leave Denver?

Posted by mizzou1028 on August 20, 2010

It’s pretty obvious that Denver is a football town, especially this time of year, but Carmelo Anthony is doing his best to steal headlines and garner attention, and not in a good way.  In a summer where the country was swept by LeBron mania (or had it shoved down its throat, depending on your level of NBA interest), Anthony has had in front of him a 3-year $65 million extension that he has been sitting on.  He is due to make $17.1 million this coming season and has a player option to make $18.5 million in the 2011-12 season.  Needless to say, the Nuggets are doing everything they can to try and stroke Anthony’s ego and make him feel like the franchise player.  Anthony has so far not signed the extension, which at first didn’t seem like a big deal but has now snowballed to the point where numerous reports say he wants out and will only sign the extension if he is traded to a team of his choice.  Anthony hasn’t said much himself to clarify the situation, save for the following statement from his Twitter account (unedited by me, note the incorrect use of “their”): “Funny how people come up with there (sic) own analysis of a situation,” he tweeted. “I tell you boy … Unbelievable.”

Most NBA experts think it is not a matter of if Anthony will leave Denver, but when.  Much of this is of course based on speculation, and as such there is no consistent theme to the stories.  SI.com is reporting that Anthony would be willing to sign the extension if he is traded to the Knicks, Nets or Rockets.  An ESPN.com story by Ric Bucher talked about toasts at Anthony’s wedding by Chris Paul and Amare Stoudemire, talking openly about joining forces in New York with the Knicks.  The thinking goes that Anthony is an east coast boy, born in Baltimore and a proud Syracuse alumnus.    There are lots of quotes from anonymous sources, usually ones who are “close to the situation”.  There is also the practical evidence that Anthony’s south Denver house is on the market, to the tune of a cool $9.5 million.  There is also a potential lockout looming in 2011, meaning the free agent market next summer may not be as desirable for Anthony is it was this summer for LeBron and his buddies.

This makes the situation tough to predict and dissect because ultimately we don’t know what Anthony is thinking. As it stands now here are the possible ending scenarios for this saga, in no order whatsoever.

– He signs the extension and stays with the Nuggets: For all we know, Anthony could be taking his time to make sure staying in Denver is the right decision for him.  House on the market aside, Anthony could be concerned about the potential lockout and may ultimately decide that the guaranteed money that is on the table for him now is the way to go, even it means he stays in Denver.  It is possible that whatever contract Anthony garners as a free agent could be significantly less than his current offer from the Nuggets.  There is also the possibility that Anthony is waiting to see who the Nuggets hire as their new general manager (Mark Warkentein and Rex Chapman were fired from the front office last month).  If that’s the case, the possibility exists that Anthony could be talked into staying.

– He says he will not sign the extension and the Nuggets trade him: The Nuggets could decide to cut their losses and deal Anthony to avoid losing him as a free agent.  They would explore the best deal among the teams that Anthony wants to be dealt to.  It is possible the Nuggets do this to cut their losses and would also be a signal that they would be starting the rebuilding process.  It is more than likely that the Nuggets would get little more than cap relief in return for their superstar for there is a proven track record of teams not getting equal value for their stars in trade in all sports.

– The Nuggets could decline his trade request and make him play out the final year of his contract: This would obviously be a very risky move, not only because they might then get nothing for Anthony if he leaves after the season, but they could also be dealing with an unhappy superstar.  In a funny way, the looming threat of a lockout could play into Denver’s favor in this scenario because it might ultimately scare Anthony into signing the extension if he feels the market next summer won’t be player friendly.  Then again, it is also possible that this would allow Anthony to bide his time and simply sign with whatever team he wants to play for next July.

I am still hopeful that Anthony will sign the extension and stay in Denver, but the realistic side of me says that is probably unlikely.  After all, even more money didn’t convince LeBron to stay in Cleveland.  I think Anthony feels that he is not viewed in the same class as LeBron, Wade, Kobe, etc.  My response to that is that Anthony has not won the way the others have.  He has only gotten the Nuggets out of the first round of the playoffs once in seven seasons.  If he wants to leave because he feels the Nuggets haven’t been loyal to him, that’s his problem because the Nuggets have done more than enough to show him that he is their franchise player.  If he wants to leave because he feels like another place is his best chance to win a championship, well, it’s not like the Nuggets haven’t tried.  Their payroll is well above the luxury tax because they’ve tried to get Anthony help.  Ultimately, whether it’s in Denver or somewhere else, Anthony will need to prove he is a winner.  Where will it be?  I hope it’s Denver but I don’t have any more of an idea than anyone who isn’t Anthony himself.  Regardless, it has long been clear that players run the show in the NBA, not coaches and executives.

Posted in basketball | Tagged: , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Settle down on Tebow, please!

Posted by mizzou1028 on August 18, 2010

I am extremely sick and tired of hearing about Tim Tebow.  Look, I hope he succeeds.  I really don’t want to see yet another first round pick wasted by the Broncos a la Marcus Nash or George Foster.  I hope Tebow can learn how to play in the NFL.  What I am getting infuriated by are headlines such as the following from supposedly reputable news outlets:

“Tim Tebow will start for Broncos this season” – Orlando Sentinel

“Tebow will start by December” – Miami Herald

“Tim Tebow mania overtaking Broncos” – USA Today

“Orton will have Tebow monkey on his back” – MSNBC.com

Whoa, slow down people!  So far all Tebow has done in the NFL is lead one touchdown drive in a preseason game against a vanilla prevent defense played by third stringers, many of whom will probably be bagging groceries in two weeks and not playing in the NFL.  He has done NOTHING to give even the slightest consideration that he can be an NFL starter.  The fact is way too many people are praising Tebow’s performance Sunday night.  I’ll admit he threw a beautiful pass to Matthew Willis that was dropped and he did show some guts on his touchdown run, but Tebow’s mechanics still need a lot of work.  He still holds the ball too low when he starts his throwing motion.  You think Dwight Freeney wouldn’t knock the ball right out of his hand?  Even on Sunday night against third stringers, Tebow got bailed out by the tuck rule on what otherwise would have been a Bengals’ fumble return TD by virtue of Tebow’s poor throwing mechanics.  He still has a lot to learn about reading NFL defenses, and if he keeps running like he did on Sunday night, someone like Ray Lewis is going to really bust him up.

I’m saying this to bag on Tebow.  He is just like any other rookie at the position.  He has actually had a pretty good camp and seems way ahead of Brady Quinn for the backup spot.  The fact is that Tebow is a project that will need time to transition to the NFL.  I do like his intangibles in terms of locker room presence and leadership, and I do admire his toughness on the field and willingness to do anything to win, but physically he’s got a ways to go before he can be an NFL starter.  This is not a Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco scenario where he is likely to come in and make that kind of impact right away.  Those guys made impact as rookies, but were also much more equipped to make the transition to the NFL because they had the physical tools.

Look folks, Kyle Orton is so far ahead in the race to be the Broncos starting quarterback this season that Tebow can’t even see his tail lights.  Orton has had the best camp of any player on the team.  He is throwing the ball with much more velocity and accuracy than he did last season, and all he did in his first preseason appearance was lead two touchdown drives against a playoff team from a year ago.  Unlike Tebow, who played against many players who are not likely to make the Bengals’ final roster, Orton played against the first team unit.  Oh, and Orton did this without any running game to help him because all of Denver’s running backs are injured.

I feel like people are so blinded by Tebow mania that it has long gotten beyond ridiculous. He is a rookie.  At that, he is a rookie that is a project.  Kyle Orton is playing incredibly well, and I think he may in line for a Pro Bowl type season (yes you read that right: Pro Bowl).  The only way that Tebow starts a game at quarterback for the Broncos at any point this season is if Orton gets injured, or the Broncos’ season has completely fallen off the wagon (say 3-7 or worse).  The only way Josh McDaniels will even think about starting Tebow at quarterback this season is if this season becomes a lost cause and he is looking ahead to next season.

I feel very strongly that this Tebow mania is very unfair to Orton and I feel like no one is acknowledging how well Orton has performed in this training camp.  I will even take it a step further and say that anyone who thinks Tebow should be starter over Orton either doesn’t know much about how football is actually played or is highly delusional.  Tim Tebow may blossom into a starter eventually, or he might not.  Until he does, let’s say off and give him time and a chance to develop.

For now, this is Orton’s team, and I think it should be really obvious that is best for the Broncos in 2010.

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MLB Pennant Races

Posted by mizzou1028 on August 12, 2010

With about a month and a half to go in the Major League Baseball season, it seems time to offer some quick predictions on how the rest of the season will go.  I think the races will be exciting and intriguing.

AL East: It’s unfortunate that one team among the trio of the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox will have to miss the playoffs, because all three teams are better than any AL Central offering this year.  Nevertheless, one team will be out here, and I think it will end up being Boston, who currently sits five games behind Tampa Bay, who is currently leading the wild card chase.  Call me crazy, but I think the Rays will overtake the Yankees for the division when it is all said and done.  I still like their pitching, especially David Price, and their lineup, while streaky, is good enough to get runs scored when needed.  The lineup will get even better when Carlos Pena comes off the DL.  The Yankees will easily still make the playoffs as the wild card, for their lineup is especially potent as well.  Their downfall could be bridging from their starters to Mariano Rivera in the 9th inning.

AL Central: We do have a good race here between the White Sox and Twins.  Both teams have solid starting pitching, although I’d give Chicago a slight edge with Mark Buerhle and Gavin Floyd.  I think Minnesota has a better lineup, but they’re finding that hitting home runs at spacious Target Field is a challenge.  Look at Joe Mauer, who has just seven home runs this season after hitting more than 30 last year.  In the end, I think this will come down to the final week.  Two years ago this ended up going to a one game playoff with the White Sox winning the game 1-0.  It could be that close this time as well, but I’ll take Minnesota on a hunch.

AL West: This is over.  Texas has a big enough lead that it would rank as one of the biggest collapses in MLB history if they lost it.  I think the Rangers will be very dangerous in the playoffs because of their potent lineup (about to get even better with the return of Ian Kinsler from the DL).  Their starting pitching has also been surprisingly effective.  If they can keep that up, they might just win the whole thing in October.

NL East: Atlanta has a fairly comfortable lead, although they just got bad news on Chipper Jones, who may have an ACL injury according to reports.  Still, their pitching is outstanding, especially Tim Hudson, and their lineup of young players continues to come through.  Will it be enough to hold of the Philiies?  I still think Philadelphia would be leading the division if they had been able to stay healthy.  With Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt in the same rotation, it really shouldn’t be fair.  I think Philadelphia overtakes Atlanta for this division when it’s all said and done, and the Braves will have a hard battle in a crowded wild card race.

NL Central: In light of the brawl earlier this week, we should have an outstanding race down the stretch between the Reds and Cardinals.  Cincinnati to me has been the surprise team this season, but their mix of youth and veterans has been playing well so far.  The key for them will be if they can keep up their surprising pitching.  I think the Cardinals have all the tools to make a run at the World Series, between a lineup that includes Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday and a rotation led by Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter.  I think St. Louis will win this race, and they may not even have to sweat it in the final week.  I just don’t see the Reds being able to keep up their pace, particularly after the Cardinals snagged their mojo this week, sweeping them in Cincy after the brawl.

NL West: I think two playoffs teams will come out of this division: San Diego and San Francisco.  It’s only a matter of which one will win the division and which will be the wild card.  I think the Giants are a team that would be a force in the playoffs in a short series because of their rotation, led by Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain.  The Padres though also have pitching that has been lights out all year, from guys that aren’t big names like Mat Latos and Jon Garland.  The Padres also made big moves at the trade deadline getting Ryan Ludwick and Miguel Tejada to bolster their lineup.  I think the Padres will win this division, and the Giants will get the wild card spot in the NL, holding off the Braves and Reds in a tight race.

I think the Rockies, while having an outstanding season from Ubaldo Jimenez and a coming out party type year from Carlos Gonzalez, just don’t quite have the horses to keep up with the rest of the pack this year.  The rest of the rotation besides Jimenez is just way too inconsistent, and their inability to score runs on the road will ultimately prove to be their downfall.  In the most recent road trip the Rockies endured a string of 21 consecutive scoreless innings over three games, that’s just not going to get it done.  In the offseason they need to add another run producer to help Gonzalez and hope that youngsters Esmil Rogers and Jhoulys Chacin will be ready to take spots in the rotation next season.

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Brawl in Cincinnati

Posted by mizzou1028 on August 11, 2010

This one definitely caught my attention tonight.  This was sparked by comments made by Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips about how he hated the Cardinals.  Check out the video courtesy of Fox Sports Net Ohio.  I had a full video embedded here but MLB took it down from YouTube, so here is the link from MLB.  It’s the best I can do.

I do disagree with the Reds’ announcers: This was not started by Yadier Molina.  This was started by Phillips with his comments the night before.  I also think Phillips said something to Molina before the brawl began.  Surely there will be lots of fines and/or suspensions to come once MLB looks at the tape.  I do think it’s interesting that only managers Tony LaRussa and Dusty Baker were ejected and no players, but I think this way the umpires didn’t have to worry about sorting it out and the commissioner’s office will take care of it.  Bottom line: Don’t wake up the sleeping giant.  St. Louis has won the first two games of this critical NL Central series and now has plenty of motivation to bury the Reds.  Brandon Phillips may have just cost the Reds a shot at the NL Central.

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Please, stop with the injuries!

Posted by mizzou1028 on August 9, 2010

First of all, my sincere apologies for being a big delinquent and not posting anything for the past three months.  I have slapped a big penalty on myself and promise to post with a lot more regularity.   It is not a coincidence that I am posting on the night of the first NFL preseason game this year between the Cowboys and Bengals.  Honestly I happen to find preseason football completely useless, primarily because it is nothing more than chances for players to get injured.  I am fearful of what this preseason is meaning for the Broncos, because they have already had a dozen players suffer injuries of varying severity during the first week of training camp, and we’re still a week away from the first of Denver’s meaningless four scrimmages.  Of course I realize that players can get hurt at any time, I just get extremely frustrated when they occur during the preseason period during a time in which we’re a long way away from any kind of meaningful football.

The biggest injury of course is that to Elvis Dumervil, who led the Broncos with 17 sacks last year.  No one else on the team had more than four.  You don’t have to be a football expert to see that this is a major blow to the Broncos’ defense.  The Broncos know how important Dumervil is, for they signed him to a $58 million extension over five years just weeks ago.  It appears in a best case scenario that the Broncos MIGHT see Dumervil in December, although it seems like the smart move would be let him have the season ending surgery to repair his torn pectoral muscle and make sure you don’t lose him for more than just this season.  The Broncos will obviously miss his ability to rush the passer.  What makes it worse is the guy they were counting on to replace Dumervil, Jarvis Moss, is out for a couple of weeks at least with a hand injury.  The good news for the linebacking core is that Robert Ayers, last year’s first round pick who had no sacks, has dominated training camp and looks like he is showing great improvement over last season.

While Dumervil is lost for the season, the Broncos are optimistic that most of the other injured players have a chance to ready for week one at Jacksonville.  Knowshon Moreno (hamstring) and Correll Buckhalter (back/neck) both suffered injuries on the first day of training camp.  This one day after the Broncos traded J.J. Arrington to the Eagles for special teams ace Joe Mays, a move that made sense at the time given Denver’s desire to upgrade the special teams unit, but made a lot less sense after the running core had been significantly depleted with the injuries.  Denver signed LenDale White to add some depth in that area and give them someone who could run the ball during the preseason besides guys who are sure to get cut, and then White got hurt as well during his first day of practice with the Broncos.  Worse for Denver is that White is facing a four game suspension from the league, so he won’t be available until October anyway.

Then there are the injuries to the wide receivers.  First round pick Demariyus Thomas, who was already dealing with a foot injury suffered before the draft, re-aggrivated the injury while making a spectacular touchdown catch in practice Saturday night.  Third round pick Eric Decker also suffered a foot injury during a goal line drill in Saturday night’s practice.  The good news is the Broncos don’t believe either of these injuries is serious.

The Broncos did cancel their scheduled practice on Sunday, and I don’t think it’s a stretch to say it was partially because they were concerned other players might get injured.  I do think it’s fair to say that most if not all of these injuries have been fluke in nature and they don’t appear to be the result of anything related to the team’s training or practice regimen.  Of course there are other teams that have had the injury bug bite them during this preseason, but clearly there is no injury around the league that is near as significant as Dumervil’s.  Factor in the other injuries the Broncos have suffered, and Denver has clearly been the most injury riddled team in the league so far in camp.  It needs to stop, or else the Broncos’ season will be stopped dead in its tracks before it even has a chance to get rolling.

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MLB Power Rankings

Posted by mizzou1028 on May 7, 2010

Thought we’d try something different for fun.  These MLB rankings are not necessarily based on record.  These are based strictly on gut reaction from what I’ve seen unfold in the first month of the season.  Call it a midseason prediction barometer of sorts. 

1. Tampa Bay Rays: Their lineup is scary good.  2-6: Crawford, Zobrist, Longoria, Pena and Upton.  If they can get their bullpen straightened out they are the World Series favorite in my opinion.

2. Philadelphia Phillies: Made a huge statement this week taking three of four from St. Louis.  They have the rotation (Halladay and Hamels leading the way) and the lineup, especially once Rollins is healthy.

3. St. Louis Cardinals: In spite of the series loss in Philly, this team is a pretty much a lock to win the NL Central.  Their middle of the order is scary, they have the rotation, and they have the bullpen.  Need more production of Matt Holliday in the long run.

4. Minnesota Twins: In spite of injuries to Joe Mauer and Joe Nathan, the Twins are not skipping a beat.  The names on the roster may not be flashy, but they know how to win. 

5. New York Yankees: I know their record is excellent, but they have to be concerned about the ineptitude of their heart of the order this season (only 3 combined HRs for Teixeria and A-Rod).  Starting pitching is solid enough to land them in the playoffs anyway.

6. San Francisco Giants: The rotation is in my opinion MLB’s best, especially with Barry Zito joining the party for once.  If their offense continues to hit as it has so far, look out.

7. Detroit Tigers: They have managed to replace Curtis Granderson without too much drop off, and their offense continues to score runs.  The problem has been the starting pitching, but if they can figure it out, they are capable of challenging the Twins in the central.

8. Toronto Blue Jays: A surprise top ten entry for sure, especially considering the loss of Roy Halladay via trade.  They are getting surprising power from Vernon Wells and Alex Gonzalez, and the pitching has been terrific.  Could be a second half surprise challenger if they keep it up.

9. Texas Rangers: Their record may only be hovering around .500, but this lineup is as scary as any in baseball.  Since they are capable of scoring 10 runs every night, that makes them the favorite in the AL West, particularly if the pitching ever stabilizes. 

10. New York Mets: The return of Jose Reyes has been huge.  The addition of Jason Bay has been a major disappointment.  If Bay ever starts hitting, they have the pitching (both starting and relief) to make a deep run at the playoffs. 

11. Oakland Athletics: The overlooked team in the northern California bay is quietly playing solid baseball.  Andrew Bailey is in my opinion the best closer in baseball, and their starting pitching isn’t bad either.  This is a team to watch.

12. Colorado Rockies: This is another .500 team, but they’ve been hit with a real rash of injuries.  Huston Street, Brad Hawpe and Jeff Francis are all close to returning, and this team is based on sound fundamentals.  Don’t sleep on them yet, they will be a contender in the NL West when it’s all said and done.

13. Washington Nationals: Certainly this team is a surprise that they aren’t in the bottom five, but they’ve quietly been able to put together good clutch hitting and their pitching has been getting the job done well enough to keep comfortably above .500.  Phenom Stephen Stasburg will almost certainly join the big league club before the season is over, and should only make them even better.  Now the fans need to notice and start coming to their games.

14.  Cincinnati Reds: The Reds seem to get a walk off win every time I turn one of their games on.  Another team that isn’t flashy with big name stars, but they play the game the right way.  There are a lot of good young players on this team (Joey Votto especially) and they may finish as high as second in the NL Central if they keep up their current play.  That would certainly be a sign of progress and hope heading into 2011.

15. Florida Marlins: Anytime you have Hanley Ramirez, you’re automatically a threat to win every night.  The problem has been the lack of support to help him out, both from his fellow hitters and starting pitching.  There is too much talent here for them to remain below .500, so I would be surprised if they didn’t make a second half run.

16. Boston Red Sox: This team has needless to say been a huge disappointment.  The only reason they’re this high is because they just swept the Angels, but before that they got shelled in three games against hapless Baltimore.  Jacoby Ellsbury’s return from injury will help, but the starting pitching has just been ghastly every time I’ve watched them, which is a lot.  ESPN really needs to learn that just because the Red Sox are a big name doesn’t mean they’re good.

17. San Diego Padres: I know this team is six games above .500, and their starting pitching has been excellent, but there is nothing special about this team that jumps out.  Other than Adrian Gonzalez they have no power, and they’ve been a lot of 2-1 and 3-2 games.  Eventually they’re going to have to get consistent offense to compete, and I still think Gonzalez gets moved at the trade deadline for money reasons.  This team will fade.

18. Arizona Diamondbacks: If Brandon Webb returns healthy in June, their rotation will get a major shot in the arm.  It needs it too with Edwin Jackson’s awful performance as the current number two starter.  Their lineup is stacked with power, but it also leads MLB in strikeouts by a lot.  This team is flashy, but lacks consistency.

19. Milwaukee Brewers: This team has really lacked consistency, especially in the bullpen.  LaTroy Hawkins and Trevor Hoffman are too good to keep pitching this poorly.  Their lineup is good enough to score enough runs to win consistently, but they’ll need the pitching to go with it if they want to keep up.

20. Atlanta Braves: How the Braves are four games under .500 is absolutely beyond me.  Their starting pitching and bullpen are solid and they have a talented lineup.  They need more consistent run production, although Jason Heyward looks like he’s going to be a star for a really long time.

21. Chicago White Sox: They are certainly in the running for biggest underachiever of the first month.  Guys like Alex Rios and Jake Peavy need to start justifying their mega contracts.  The rest of the starting pitching has been abysmal too, especially Gavin Floyd.

22. Los Angeles Angels: In spite of the White Sox’ disappointment, the Angles are clearly MLB’s biggest underachiever so far this year.  Their star studded lineup is not hitting consistently, but more importantly the starting pitching is not getting it done.  Scott Kazmir and Jared Weaver in particular have been awful. 

23. Pittsburgh Pirates: It is a surprise that they are not further under .500 being that their roster is basically a Triple A team.  Considering the youth, the Pirates have pulled out some surprising wins and have mostly been competitive.  Whether it lasts is another story, but there are two teams in their division ranked below them on this list, and that’s something.

24. Chicago Cubs: The Cubs have one of MLB’s biggest payrolls and yet they have one of the worst on field products this year.  Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez are hitting way below their career numbers, although a red hot Alfonso Soriano is trying to make up for it.  The starting rotation is mediocre.  The fact that $91 million man Carlos Zambrano is now in the bullpen tells you everything you need to know.

25. Los Angeles Dodgers: The starting pitching hasn’t been there save for Hiroki Kuroda.  The lineup hasn’t been much better, although Manny Ramirez returns this weekend.  I expect this team to jump up in the rankings before the year is over, but the tough NL West they can’t wait too long to make a move.

26. Cleveland Indians: Closer Kerry Wood returns this weekend, and that should stabilize the bullpen.  Grady Sizemore has been a major disappointment with a .200 average and no home runs.  His struggles reflect the entire lineup right now.

27. Houston Astros: An 0-8 start to the season put them in a major hole to dig out of, and they’ve had a hard time doing so.  Lance Berkman’s return helps, but they need more than one home run from $100 million man Carlos Lee.  Pitching, both starting and bullpen, has also been less than desired.

28. Seattle Mariners: The M;’s have been plagued by poor hitting (why on Earth did they sign Milton Bradley, the guaranteed clubhouse poison?).  Cliff Lee is an elite starter but he’s already said he won’t be a Mariner beyond 2010 and will sign elsewhere as a free agent next season.  Ouch.

29. Kansas City Royals: Poor Zack Greinke doesn’t have a win yet and actually has a pair of 1-0 defeats on his resume this season.  The Royals have gotten good hitting at times from Jose Guillen and others, just not when they’ve had good pitching to go with it.  The middle relief is awful, and even Joakim Soria has blown a couple of saves.  Not good.

30. Baltimore Orioles: I look at this team and I find it hard to be able to name five players on the roster.  I feel bad for former Rockie Garrett Atkins, who is being asked to carry much more of the load than he is capable.  Every area is bad.  You know you’re in bad shape when you can’t for your closer (Michael Gonzalez) to return from the DL.  The problem with that? His ERA was over 9.00 before he went on the DL last month.

Posted in baseball | 1 Comment »

Tebow in Denver

Posted by mizzou1028 on April 23, 2010

Let’s cut to the chase with this: the selection of Tim Tebow by the Denver Broncos at number 25 overall is without question the craziest, riskiest pick I have seen from an NFL team in years, maybe ever.  Here you have a guy in Tebow who just two months ago was being projected as a fifth or sixth round selection, largely due to a poor performance in the Senior Bowl and his showing the scouting combine.  We were told there are major flaws in Tebow’s mechanics and footwork.  Many still think he is nothing more than a backup quarterback at best.  There are others however who have seen him work insanely hard to improve his mechanics in the past two months and value his intangibles of hard work and leadership, thus valuing him much higher.  Rumor has it the Broncos weren’t the only team targeting Tebow tonight.  Reports have the Buffalo Bills as extremely disappointed, and others say perhaps the Patriots or Vikings were hoping Tebow would fall to them.  Bottom line: Tebow is perhaps the most polarizing player I have ever seen.  People either love him or hate him, there is no middle ground, and how he does in Denver will almost certainly define the Josh McDaniels era.

I think it is safe to say that the pick was a surprise, no surprise is too soft a word.  Let’s try shock.  That’s much better, I would say everyone in Broncos Country, and heck the entire league, was shocked to actually see Tebow selected in round one.  Many think he was selected too high.  Clearly, Josh McDaniels values him enough to have made him a first round selection.  This does seem very curious considering the recent trade for Brady Quinn and the other needs on the roster, not the least of which is the offensive line, of which there is no center currently on the roster.  I think it is safe to say that Tebow will not be starting at quarterback right away.  Right now that job still belongs to Kyle Orton, although he will certainly have competition breathing down his neck.  I could see Tebow being used initially in short yardage situations, perhaps some Wildcat formations, and basically deployed at specific times in a game to try and generate an impact.

Frankly, I think it will take minimum two and probably three seasons to truly judge this pick.  It will take time for Tebow to develop, and maybe that’s the problem that many fans have.  People want impact players in the first round, guys who will step in right away and make a difference.  Broncos fans are upset that Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall have been traded and they are having a hard time seeing what the Broncos got for those two players.  My views on Cutler are very clear (short version: if he keeps leading the league in picks, Chicago can have him) and Marshall was clearly someone who no longer wanted to be in Denver.  While the frustration is understandable, I think it’s clear that McDaniels wouldn’t have made those moves if he didn’t feel they made the team better.  Clearly he thinks Tebow can help.  So in that regard, I say let’s give the guy a chance to see what he can do before we label the pick as a bust.

Here is what I like about Tebow: His track record at Florida is outstanding.  He is the winner of two national championships, and his stats were off the charts.  The guy won games, he proved to be a superb leader in the huddle and in the locker room.  He has many qualities you want in a quarterback; he exudes confidence, has an ability to take charge, is very intelligent, and knows the playbook inside and out.  With his skillset he can also be very capable as an H-back type out of the backfield, and he is as tough as they come on the field.  He is one of those guys who is the first to arrive at practice and the last to leave.  This is a guy who will do whatever it takes and then some to improve, be a leader and win football games.  He has proven adept to running Urban Meyer’s offense at Florida, which is more similar to an NFL offense than that used by many other colleges.  He is in many ways an ideal teammate.  He is a team first player all the way, someone who will not worry about contracts or individual stats.  He is also not a guy who will get in trouble a la Ben Roethlisberger.

Now here is what I don’t like about Tebow: His improved mechanics have only been on display for two months, so it will be very interesting to see how he will do against real NFL competition.  I still wonder if he has the ability to throw the deep ball, something that was noticeably absent in the Broncos offense last year.  I also pause when I think of how many other Heisman Trophy winners and good college quarterbacks have struggled mightily in the NFL.  The NFL is completely different from the college game, so there is no guarantee his success at Florida will translate to the Broncos.

There is another reason I have not to this point been the biggest fan of Tebow, and it’s perhaps one that won’t make me very popular.  While I admire his character off the field, I am not at all a fan of the way he sometimes uses football as a launching pad for his personal and religious views.  It is for this reason that I have found him to be a very difficult player to root for.  I realize this sounds strange considering he hasn’t gotten himself into any embarrassing trouble, and this is not to say that I resent him for his views.  Plenty of NFL players share Tebow’s views, you just don’t see them using the NFL to fuel political or religious agendas.  I would say the same thing whether I agreed with Tebow or not: there is a time and place for expression of such views, and game interviews and press conferences are not the time.  I guess what I’m saying is I don’t want the starting quarterback of my team telling me that his off the field views are correct and that mine are wrong.  I do respect that he is very confident in himself and who he is.  Obviously I don’t want Ben Roethlisberger on my team, or anyone else who would behave as irresponsibly as he has, so I’m not saying the Broncos shouldn’t draft/sign players of good character.  Tim Tebow has very good character and I admire him for that, and I’m glad the Broncos are pursuing players with high morals.  I just think at times Tebow has gone overboard with his message.

Overall I think Tebow is a player worth taking a chance on because he is a sure bet to be a good teammate and he has the intangibles necessary to be a good quarterback and good leader of a football team.  While I may personally not care for the way he expresses some of his views, that doesn’t change the fact he is a person of good character and is someone who will clearly put the team first, and that is something that has been missing from the Broncos locker room, specifically at key positions.  I think in time if he continues to work on his mechanics, he can develop into a good quarterback.  Nothing is guaranteed of course.   There is no question McDaniels is taking a huge risk, especially if the Broncos could have gotten him at a later slot in the draft than the first round.  There is no way to know for sure, but the common opinion seems to be Tebow was selected too high, that the Broncos might have been able to wait until Friday to take him.  I think if Tebow turns out to be a good player that won’t matter.  If Tebow is successful, it might just restore the opinion of McDaniels in Bronco land.  It might be enough to make people forget about Cutler and Marshall and even Mike Shanahan.  If Tebow is a bust, McDaniels will be run out of town on a rail and his tenure will be defined by the moves he made and the risks he took.  He could well be remembered as the coach who blew up the Broncos.  What will it be?   It’ll probably be at least two years before we find out.

One footnote: Let’s not forget about Demaryius Thomas, the receiver from Georgia Tech that the Broncos selected three spots before Tebow.  Thomas is a playmaker with a body type very similar to Brandon Marshall.  He has the ability to make tough catches in traffic and McDaniels believes he is faster than Marshall.  He is the type of receiver that could be able to make an immediate impact alongside Eddie Royal.  I like this pick very much.  Now they need to address the offensive line.

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Marshall to Miami – Now let’s move on

Posted by mizzou1028 on April 16, 2010

By now you should know the specifics of the deal: Brandon Marshall has been traded to the Miami Dolphins for a pair of second round picks, one in next week’s draft (number 45 overall) and another in 2011.  At first I thought the Broncos got robbed, that they didn’t get enough in return for Marshall.  When looking at the receiver market around the league however, the Broncos actually did as well as could realistically be expected.  The Cardinals only received a third and fifth round pick for Anquan Boldin, and the Steelers got only a measly fifth round pick for Santonio Holmes.  It could be more than a reasonable argument that Marshall has not accomplished as much as those two wideouts, but at the very least Marshall is in their class from a talent standpoint.  While it would have been nice for the Broncos if a team signed Marshall to an offer sheet and had to surrender the tender of a first round pick, that just wasn’t going to happen because teams knew he could be had for less.  That’s just the way it works.

I know many Broncos fans are feeling frustrated because they feel like the talent of the team is being destroyed (Tony Scheffler is almost certainly on his way out too, perhaps to rejoin Mike Shanahan in Washington).  While I admit I am a little concerned about who will be there to throw the ball to in September (Eddie Royal MUST have more than 37 catches for starters), I think the move was so inevitable that Marshall’s presence in the locker room would have caused more of a distraction than it would have helped.  Let’s make no bones about this, Marshall wanted out of Denver.  He may have put on a happy face last year, and he did get his 100 catches, but he was never playing for the team.  Let’s not forget he did earn a one game suspension from Josh McDaniels at the beginning of last season, and only when he returned from that did he even start playing hard.  Let’s also not forget that he couldn’t figure out a way to get on the field in the finale against Kansas City, even though it was obvious (and even stated by McDaniels) that other players were gutting it out with worse injuries.  The fact Marshall was too hurt to play in a do or die game where the playoffs were on the line but managed to be on the field in the completely meaningless Pro Bowl just a few weeks later says a lot about his character or lack thereof.  Marshall was only concerned with a big payday and as far he was concerned he had his 100 catches.

As far as I’m concerned (I said this about Jay Cutler as well), if a player doesn’t want to be here, get rid of him.  Marshall had several reasons for wanting out of Denver, not the least of which is the Broncos weren’t about to reward him with a large contract when he is just one more transgression away from a major suspension by Roger Goodell.  Marshall’s off the field behavior has been questionable at best (which is probably the biggest reason he was a fourth round draft pick), and I frankly shudder to think of what might happen when Marshall takes his new paycheck to South Beach.  Marshall is certainly a very talented receiver, and I’ll be the first to say they just don’t fall off the tree, but in the NFL a good locker room environment is just as important as the talent on the field.  In this case, an unhappy Marshall was just going to cause more of a distraction.  Think of Terrell Owens, Chad Ochocinco, and other receivers with large personalities.  How many playoff games have those receivers won?  Think about the distractions those receivers cause.  Good receivers are important, but good character is more important.  That’s why the Broncos made this trade, and really why they felt they didn’t have much choice.

I do think this a team with many more questions than answers.  I think this is a very important draft for the Broncos, for they still have major holes at guard and center along the offensive line.  They also could use another linebacker in the 3-4 scheme.  Speaking of linebacker, they need to figure out a way to make Elvis Dumervil happy.  Dumervil missed out on a big payday thanks in large part to the uncapped year as a result of the collective bargaining agreement not being renewed.  The Broncos did address the defensive line in the offseason and that should be much improved.  It will also be interesting to see if the Broncos try to tab a receiver somewhere in the draft, and of course how the quarterback battle between Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn shakes out.  The Broncos are definitely a team with major questions, but I am always the eternal optimist.  Let’s see what happens next week in the draft and we’ll go from there.

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Brady Quinn is a Bronco

Posted by mizzou1028 on March 15, 2010

Josh McDaniels continues to waste very little time rebuilding the Broncos.  In recent weeks he has made major changes along the defensive line, bringing in Justin Bannon, Jamaal Williams and Jarvis Green.  Today McDaniels sent Peyton Hillis and a sixth round draft pick to Cleveland for Brady Quinn.  I have to say that I like this move primarily because it is very low risk.  Hillis wasn’t being used anyway (although many Broncos fans think he should have been) and Quinn is only 25.  Quinn has proven to be successful running a very similar offense at Notre Dame, so perhaps we might get to see how good Josh McDaniels really is at working with quarterbacks.  I do think that Orton will open up camp as the default starter, but Quinn will definitely get a chance to compete.  The price the Broncos paid to get him is very low for a former first round pick.

I know the easy reaction here is to be negative.  This is understandable given Quinn’s struggles in Cleveland to this point.  While this is true to an extent, Quinn also never had the confidence of the Cleveland organization and didn’t have any talent around him to speak of.  He does have a good arm and when he’s been on his game can be very accurate.  Quinn does have the tools to be a very capable quarterback in Josh McDaniels’ system if he is willing to work and does indeed benefit from a fresh start in a new place.

As for losing Peyton Hillis, part of me is disappointed about that.  I think Hillis could have been a valuable asset to the Broncos in short yardage situations last year, but for whatever reason McDaniels elected not to use him.  Given this, it is actually easy to argue that the Broncos aren’t giving up much of anything.  I know many Broncos fans are going to be upset about losing a fan favorite, but this could prove to be a good move in the long run.  If McDaniels can get Quinn to produce like a first round talent, he’ll at the very least be a major upgrade over Chris Simms (he is anyway right now), and at best he could end up running the offense efficiently and take the Broncos to the next level.  Let’s see how this develops heading into the offseason and give this a chance to see if it works.  It just might.

I think the Broncos still have a lot of questions, with the chief one being the offensive line.  I think one of the main reasons Knowshon Moreno’s numbers dipped toward the end of the year was because he had no holes to run through.  Too many times he had to dodge a defender or two before even getting to the line of scrimmage.  The Broncos need a left guard and a center (Casey Wiegmann returned to the Chiefs) and that should be their top priority going forward.  Of course I am also interested to see if Brandon Marshall stays in Denver or ends up playing elsewhere.  My money is on him remaining a Bronco because I don’t think anyone out there is willing to surrender a first round pick for a receiver with a problem reputation.  The onus is going to be on Marshall to show the correct attitude whether he plays for the Broncos next season or not.

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Random Stuff

Posted by mizzou1028 on February 12, 2010

What we’ve got here is a series of quick hit thoughts without any order or organization.  Topics include the Super Bowl, the NFL season as a whole, the Broncos and other random stuff.

– Congratulations to the Saints on winning the Super Bowl.  I cannot think of a more deserving city or fan base to celebrate a championship.  the fact alone that the Saints had never made the Super Bowl before makes this a good story.  Throw in Katrina and the devastation of the Superdome five years ago, and you’ve got a terrific story.  Plus, there are a lot of good guys on that team.

– As for the game, I thought the Saints were going to need to be able to pressure Peyton Manning to win.  As it turned out, the Saints only deployed one blitz the entire night, and that came on the clinching pick six.  The Saints were able to confuse Manning by continually changing up the looks of their secondary and defensive alignment.  This  combined with the ability of the Saints’ offense to control the clock and keep Manning watching on the sideline for long stretches proved to be the difference. 

– It wasn’t as if Manning had a bad game (he threw for over 300 yards), but it was shocking to see him throw a fourth quarter interception with the game on the line.  Frankly, if any Colt is at fault for that play it would be more Reggie Wayne than Manning.  Wayne failed to get inside position on the defender, and as a result was in no position to prevent the pick.

– I thought the other difference was that the Saints played to win, whereas the Colts were playing not to lose.  New Orleans went for it on 4th and goal late in the second quarter, and although they didn’t get it, they were still able to force a three and out thanks to a very tentative Colts offense calling three runs up the middle.  The Saints ended up getting a field goal before the half anyway.  Think about it: If the Saints took the chip shot three points at the end of the half, the Colts could well have had time to get a drive going to go up 13-6 or even 17-6 at the half.  As it was, the Saints gave Indy the ball at their own 1 yard line, and the Colts were playing not to make a mistake.  This played right into the Saints’ hands even though they didn’t get the touchdown.  Brilliant coaching by the Saints, and very tentative, poor coaching by the Colts in the final two minutes of the first half.

– Then there was the onside kick to open the second half.  Another very gutsy call by Sean Payton, one that would have backfired miserably if the Saints didn’t recover the kick.  However, it worked, and the Saints capitalized for a quick touchdown.  The Colts were very clearly not expecting the kick, and in fact several Colts players were retreating to try and set up a return, rather than be in position to recover the surprise onside.  Contrast this decision by Payton with the coaching of Jim Caldwell, who called for a 51-yard field goal attempt in the fourth quarter even though the odds of Stover making the kick were slim to none based on his lack of leg strength.  Granted the Colts were facing a 4th & 11, and at least Caldwell didn’t order a punt, but had the Colts gone for it and missed, the Saints’ field position wouldn’t have been near as good as they got with the missed field goal.  Sean Payton played to win, Jim Caldwell played not to lose, and that was the difference.

– Interesting stat: discounting games in which the Colts waved the white flag and made no attempt to win, Indianapolis has won 23 regular season games in a row while going 2-2 in postseason games.  Such is the legacy of Peyton Manning, who himself is 8-8 in playoff games.

– It is interesting to look back at the Colts’ decision to rest their starters during the final two weeks of the season instead of going for 16-0.  It is hard to say in retrospect whether that had any impact on their Super Bowl loss.  Did the decision put more pressure on the Colts to win the Super Bowl, or would they have had more pressure with an undefeated record?  It is hard to say, but if I was the coach I would have gone for the undefeated record.  That’s probably one reason of many why I’m not a coach.

– We certainly have a lot of interesting offseason storylines to keep track of, but I think the biggest one is the collective bargaining agreement, or lack thereof.  The current deal is set to expire at the end of the 2010 season, and calls for an uncapped year next season.  The only way the uncapped year will be avoided if agreement can be reached on a new deal before March 5, the day free agency opens.  Let’s just say that I have better odds of winning Olympic gold next week in Vancouver for tv watching than we have of seeing an agreement reached by March 5.  The sides are so far apart right now that there is no communication.  If we have an uncapped year, the owners are going to find it nearly impossible to get the players to agree to go back to a salary cap, and we will very likely see a work stoppage in 2011.

– Obviously a work stoppage would be bad on so many levels, not the least of which is you’ve got owners and players bickering over how to split millions of dollars while the rest of us are dealing with a terrible economy and many are unemployed.  Many fans are not renewing season tickets because they can’t afford them.   I think the NFL is rapidly heading down a slippery slope where they’re about to make so many fans irate that they may well be killing the golden goose.  The NFL is without question the most popular sport in America, and frankly it’s not even close, but if owners and players can’t see common sense it may not stay that way if there is no 2011 season due to greedy owners and players.  If there is a work stoppage for any reason, it’s because both sides are selfish and greedy.  If they can’t agree on how to split an $8 billion pie, than there is no way they are anything but selfish and greedy.  That’s not exactly the right message to send to fans in this economy. 

– As for the uncapped year, it may not be as beneficial to players as they think.  Yes, some owners (esp. Daniel Snyder and Jerry Jones) could well start throwing all kinds of money around, but I think a larger number or owners would go the other way and try to save money, and not offer big time contracts to free agents.  See, without a cap, there also isn’t a salary floor, and thus teams like the Bengals and Lions and other teams that are struggling financially won’t have to spend money if they don’t want to.  I think an uncapped year would benefit roughly 8-10 players who will cash in with mega contracts, but for most of the players, I think this could actually be a detriment.  In any case, this will be the big story of the 2010 season: will the owners and players be able to avoid a work stoppage in 2011?

– There are of course other storylines to follow: Will Donovan McNabb remain an Eagle?  Will Brett Favre come back for another year?  If he doesn’t will McNabb end up in Minnesota?  Will the Cardinals actually start Matt Leinart in the wake of Kurt Warner’s retirement?  Do the Saints have a shot to repeat?  In light of the Saints winning this year, are any of the four franchises that have never made the Super Bowl (Texans, Jaguars, Lions and Browns) even close?  Will Jay Cutler ever get it figured out in Chicago?   Will the Steelers bounce back to playoff form?  Of course there are many other questions besides these, and others that will come up once we see what the offseason movement will be.

– Of course I have to mention the Broncos.  As we get closer to free agency I’ll offer a detailed review of the season and what I think they need to do.  For now, let’s just say that the sting of falling from 6-0 to 8-8 is still significant, and I think there is a lot of work the Broncos need to do.  I think the top priority is the offensive line, followed closely by the defensive front seven.  They do have a top 10 pick courtesy of Chicago, so it will be interesting to see what direction they go.  I don’t see them being very active in free agency because they don’t really have a lot of cash to throw around, so they’ll probably try to find some bargains and fill some holes that way. 

– I do think the departure of Mike Nolan as defensive coordinator is very significant and could well be very devastating for the Broncos.  The Broncos showed great improvement on that side of the ball from the previous three seasons and it is a little disconcerting that he just couldn’t get on the same page as Josh McDaniels going forward.  Hopefully the Broncos don’t drop off in that area next season.

– I’m not sure the Broncos should get rid of Brandon Marshall.  He is a great talent, but he does need to get his head on straight.  Still, I don’t think he should be given away without getting equal value in return.

– The Broncos drew the short straw and will play in the London game next season against the 49ers.  I’m just glad the Broncos aren’t the one giving up the home game.  I’m on record as saying the London game is a bad idea all the way around, because I think the NFL needs to do a better job of taking care of its fans at home and I think it’s really unfair to the team surrendering the home game.  I also hope it doesn’t prove to be a midseason distraction that causes problems for the team in the second half of the season.

– Last week I got another reminder of why college basketball is roughly 20 times better than the NBA.  I went to the Nuggets-Suns game and observed one sequence two Suns players got tangled up going for a rebound and fell to the floor, which should have allowed a Denver 5 on 3 opportunity.  Thing is, two Nuggets players stood there doing nothing and watched the 3 on 3 action on the other end of the floor.  The Nuggets missed two shots, and eventually Phoenix got the rebound when their two players rejoined the action.  There was no visible show of emotion from George Karl, who presumably didn’t want to rock the boat with his high priced lineup.  This was one example of a game where I saw lots of bad shots, several instances of lazy passing, and very little effort on the defensive end by either team.

– By contrast, the Missouri-Colorado game I attended in Boulder was a display of much better effort and intensity by the two teams on the floor.  Missouri’s J.T. Tiller took an elbow to the face two minutes into the game, had a broken nose to show for it, needed to change his jersey because it was all bloody, and he was back on the court less than five minutes later.  The broken nose didn’t deter him from hustling, defending, diving for loose balls, and being physical when necessary.  The difference between college and the NBA is absolutely staggering when you watch both in person.  I much prefer college for the team play, actual effort on defense, crowd intensity (rowdy student sections versus corporate folks that probably can’t name half the players on the floor and are more concerned with what kind of premium malt they’re drinking) and most of all you can tell the players are very passionate and want to win at any cost.  You just don’t see those things in the NBA. 

– I am somewhat puzzled this is being referred to as a “big sports weekend”.  Granted, the opening ceremonies of the Olympics are tonight, and that is a big deal, but the only event I care to watch in the winter Olympics is hockey, and that doesn’t start until Tuesday.  Even then, I’ll watch college hoops over the Olympics any day.  The other events this weekend are NASCAR, which I refuse to watch and can’t understand the facination of, and the NBA all-star game, which is a big display of every reason why the NBA isn’t as good as the college version.

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