My apologies for last week’s incomplete post. (For the record I blame the awful Internet at the Des Moines Marriott). I thought I had included the Saints-Rams game but somehow neglected that one. As such that will count as an incorrect pick. In any case, more quickie picks here, realizing that I am already off on the wrong foot this week with a wrong pick in the Thursday night game (see my Twitter account). That loss is included in the overall season total.
Last week: 8-7 Season: 96-47
– Jaguars over Bills: Jacksonville continues to surprisingly have a pulse. I still think they aren’t a great team but they keep figuring out ways to win. Buffalo is in shambles, and that means the Jags will win this one at home relatively easy. Jacksonville is quietly sneaking into the wild card discussion.
– Patriots over Jets: New England is reeling after a blown fourth quarter lead in Indy, not to mention the now infamous 4th & 2 decision. The Jets are coming off a home loss in a game they probably should have won. I like New England here for two reasons: their ability to bounce back from adversity and a strong desire to avenge their week two defeat in New York. Besides, Tom Brady has now long erased any doubts about his health.
– Bengals over Raiders: Oakland is starting Bruce Gradkowski at quarterback. That is all you need to know about this game. Being that Cincy is definitely for real at 7-2, the only question here is margin of victory and what kind of TD celebration we’ll see from Mr. Ochocinco.
– Lions over Browns: If a game was played with no one in the stands, would it make the highlights? Why anyone would pay any amount of money to watch this bore is beyond me. It’s too bad there isn’t a rule allowing a tv blackout in both cities. For picking purposes I go with the home team because I think Cleveland is just a bit worse.
– Colts over Ravens: This is interesting, but we’ve been down this road before. When these teams square off, the Ravens defense holds Indy in check for roughly a half, and then Peyton Manning carves them up in the second half. I expect that scenario to play out again, especially now that the Ravens defense isn’t what it used to be. (Last week doesn’t count because it was against the Browns).
– Steelers over Chiefs: Pittsburgh suffered a tough home loss last week, but they’ll have no issues getting well here. This is another game where the only question is margin of victory. I’m just wondering if there will be more terrible towels than Chiefs fans in the seats at Arrowhead.
– Chargers over Broncos: I really want to go with the home team here but I just can’t do it. Chris Simms is the likely starter here at quarterback, and the Broncos just haven’t been right since the bye week. The offense isn’t consistent, and the defense is starting to wear down. San Diego has not lost since the Broncos beat them in mid-October, and they will be highly motivated for this one. I hope I’m wrong, but I go with the Chargers 24-17.
– Cowboys over Redskins: Dallas is coming off a loss while the Redskins are coming off a surprising win. I wasn’t sure I would be writing that sentence, but there you go. I expect the Cowboys to rebound in this one without too much difficulty and bring the Redskins back to reality.
– Giants over Falcons: Both teams are extremely desperate for a win, but at some point the G-men have to rebound. New York is perhaps more desperate knowing they have to go to Denver on a short week for Thanksgiving, and therefore I will go with the home team here. I do think the Falcons will keep it close with Michael Turner, but in the end I just think the Giants have to win eventually.
– Packers over 49ers: Green Bay has been somewhat of an enigma, but I think I like them to hold off the Niners at Lambeau. The Niners may have gotten a win against Chicago last game, but I think that had more to do with Jay Cutler than anyone on their own team. Aaron Rodgers is quietly having another very good year, and I like that to continue on Sunday.
– Vikings over Seahawks: This is yet another complete mismatch on tap for Sunday, especially in the Metrodome. I still think the Vikings are every bit as talented as any team in the league and I stand by my preseason pick that they will win the Super Bowl.
– Buccaneers over Saints: Yes you read that correctly. This could be somewhat interesting for New Orleans considering they are on the road and have struggled to beat some inferior opponents in recent weeks. Tampa Bay meanwhile is starting to show some improvement and an ability to be competitive even when it is not expected. The Saints also have the Patriots on tap next week. So…..ah what the heck UPSET ALERT. I think this shapes up to be a trap game for New Orleans, especially considering that Reggie Bush is officially out.
– Cardinals over Rams: What is it with the NFL and mismatches this season? Arizona wins this one at home by a lot and without much extra effort on their part. Arizona’s season in quietly showing a similar pattern to last year.
– Eagles over Bears: NBC somehow got stuck with a mediocre Sunday night game even though we are now supposed to be into flexible scheduling. I think both teams have underachieved this season, but I think Philadelphia gave a better effort on the road last week in San Diego. I just don’t see the Eagles losing three games in a row.
– Texans over Titans: A somewhat intriguing Monday nighter being that the Titans have won three straight and the Texans have started to live up to the promise they’ve shown the last three years. I think Houston is showing they have the ability to be a playoff team, and I think they’ll win this one at home behind the Monday night crowd.
I promise once college football season is done I will start posting more than just picks again. Let’s just say that my workload week to week is getting insane. I do however don’t want to miss an easy chance to rip Jay Cutler, who tossed FIVE picks last night in a 10-6 loss to mediocre San Francisco (picked correctly by me on Twitter: look at the time stamp, I got it in well before kickoff). His last one in the final seconds was a beautiful throw right to three red 49er jerseys and Greg Olsen behind all of them. Mr. Cutler has now tossed a league high 17 picks after throwing 18 all of last season. His nine picks in the red zone the last two seasons are far and away an NFL high. Let’s just say I am not crying as a Broncos fan that he is gone. I’m not sure Kyle Orton is the answer long term, but at least he doesn’t gift wrap red zone picks like Cutler. Now, on to the picks, last night’s correct pick not included in the overall record.
Little did I know how much producing a major college football radio broadcast every Saturday would add to my weekly workload. Let’s just say there is a lot more to it than game day (but I wouldn’t trade it for anything, even though the CU Buffs have struggled to win games this season). At any rate, the Denver Broncos have now had the bye week to rest and relax after their stunning 6-0 start, and they will continue with their rugged stretch of games that everyone thought would be their downfall. I still think the next two games (at Baltimore and home against Pittsburgh) are two of the hardest games on the whole slate, so in some ways the Broncos still have a lot to prove. However, I also think the Broncos have finally gotten the respect nationally that they deserve. They are in the top five of virtually every power ranking out there, and people are acknowledging that last year’s embarrassing collapse is unlikely to repeat itself with this coaching staff and this group of players. Think about this, if Denver goes just .500 the rest of the way, they would finish with an 11-5 record, which would virtually guarantee them the AFC West title unless San Diego were to win out or close to it. The Broncos have their sights set on home games in January, and that certainly wouldn’t be a picnic for anyone that would have to come in and play them. We’ve talked about many of the numbers that have made this team successful so far this year, but more than that I think it is a good blend of veteran leadership (Brian Dawkins in particular), great coaching, and a confidence that the team is never out of the game. I think an overlooked factor also is the team’s outstanding conditioning level. The Broncos have completely owned every team they have played in the second half on both sides of the ball. That is a very good trend for the Broncos going forward.
There has certainly been a lot going on the past few days in the Denver sports scene, hence the lateness of this post. We will give the Rockies their due for a fantastic season in just a moment, but the Broncos are rapidly becoming the talk of the sports world for being the unquestioned biggest surprise in the National Football League. With a win over the Patriots in overtime, the Broncos have now silenced critics who said their fast start was a result of an easy schedule (actually three of their five wins have come against teams with winning records). The Broncos were a team that was universally picked to be horrible primarily because everyone seemed to think they made a colossal error in trading Jay Cutler (for example Sports Illustrated picked them to finish 5-11. Hell, even Denver Post columnist Woody Paige predicted 4-12). Well, now that they are 5-0, the Broncos’ start has to be among the most surprising in NFL history. Fans wanted Josh McDaniels fired before he even coached a game and few seemed to think that he was doing a good job in the offseason. The Broncos are quickly showing that they are for real, and are quickly making people forget Cutler and Mike Shanahan.
Before we get into this matchup, take a good look at the photo. That is what the Broncos will be wearing on Sunday: 1960 throwback uniforms. This has to be without question one of the ugliest jerseys in the history of sports, not to mention the vertical striped socks (photo below). The socks were so hideous at the time that there was a huge ceremony to burn them all (well most of them, a pair does hang in the Pro Football Hall of Fame). This ensemble, the original uniform of the Broncos, was literally all the Broncos could get at the time. They were second hand because the owner at the time couldn’t afford anything else. Needless to say, they were scrapped very quickly for the orange the blue the team has worn for a vast majority of their history. A large part of me says it will actually be very fun to see the broncos in action wearing these uniforms on Sunday. Just don’t try to adjust your TV set when you see them. The Patriots will also be wearing throwback uniforms featuring Pat Patriot circa 1963 (In their case I much prefer the classic uniform to their current one). Their the same ones (except an away version) that they wore in week one against the Bills.
The biggest thing I’m curious to see in this game is how Denver’s defense performs against the New England offense. the Patriots offense did suffer a disastrous blow this week with news that Fred Taylor will be sidelined due to right ankle surgery. The good news for New England is they don’t expect it to be season ending, but they will definitely not have him available for this game. That means they will rely on the trio of Laurence Maroney, Kevin Faulk and Sammy Morris. Morris did torch the Broncos for 138 yards by halftime last year, but that was against a completely different defensive unit. In any case, Taylor has been the Patriots’ best runner by far in the first four games, and missing him could be bad news against a Denver unit that has been extremely stingy against the run. The Broncos held Dallas to 78 yards rushing last week after they had gone for 200 in each of the previous two games, so indications are that the Broncos have an advantage against the run in this game with the Patriots beat up. The key here though could end up being the Patriots pass offense. Tom Brady is definitely looking more comfortable in the pocket and has shown he can take hits when necessary. He is also developing more of a chemistry with Randy Moss again and Wes Welker is back to help stretch the field as well. The Broncos have gotten pressure on opposing QBs so far this year, so the key could be how much pressure they can get on Brady, especially with Elvis Dumervil. If they can get pressure on Brady, it could play into the hands of Denver’s improved secondary. If not, then it could be real fun to watch Moss against Champ Bailey, while the rest of the secondary tries to contain Welker and Benjamin Watson.
I feel like in a lot of ways I could just cut and paste my recap the Oakland and incorporate it here to review the Broncos’ 17-10 win against the Cowboys. For starters, the Broncos would not have won this game without another terrific performance by the defense. I don’t care who they’ve played (frankly I’m not so sure Dallas is a playoff caliber team, but even the most skeptical of national pundits have to start giving Denver’s defense its due). The Broncos are allowing a mere 6.5 points per game through their first four. That’s less than a touchdown per game folks. You’re going to win a lot of games if you keep doing that. The Broncos once again won the turnover battle (2-1), managed to hold the Cowboys to just 74 yards rushing (this after Dallas came into the game ranked number one in rushing, having gone over 200 yards in each of their previous two games). sacked Tony Romo five times (including two more from Elvis Dumervil, who now has a staggering 8 on the season). and most importantly stepped up big in the final sequence of the game. Dallas had first and goal at the 8 with less than a minute to play, and the Broncos managed to keep Dallas out of the end zone thanks to Champ Bailey, who knocked passes away in the end zone on third and fourth down.
On Sunday we will finally start to get an idea if the Denver Broncos are actually for real or not. Sunday begins a five game stretch of opponents that are needless to say a significant upgrade over Denver’s slate the first three weeks of the season (although I am more hesitant than ever to claim the Bengals were an easy win – after all CIncy is 2-1). While the schedule does get tougher for the Broncos, it is also fair to say that Sunday’s home game against Dallas no longer looks like a sure loss the way it did roughly a month ago. In fact, the Broncos appear to be a good position to quite possibly be 4-0, something that looked impossible before the regular season started.
Reid Fischer's World of Rants 