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Week One and Season Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on September 5, 2008

Football is finally back!  I know, they’ve been playing the preseason games for a month but that doesn’t count.  Last night’s win by the Giants over Washington officially kicked off the year.  Count me among those that feels the Giants are really being slighted and are not being given the respect a defending champion should deserve.  Yes, they lost their top two defensive ends (Michael Strahan to retirement and Osi Umenyiora to a season ending injury in preseason) but they still the defending champs, and last night they played like it.  The Redskins looked lost offensively most of the game, in large part because the Giants managed to get pressure on Jason Campbell.  Eli Manning didn’t have a great game, but he made enough plays early to give the Giants the lead, and Plaxico Burress proved he is still the real deal. 

I am genuinely baffled how many people are predicting a bad year for the Giants.  My hometown newspaper, the Denver Post, predicted a 20-19 Redskins win yesterday.  Of the 16 experts on espn.com, only one is predicting the Giants to win the NFC East (to be fair they actually didn’t last year) and seven of those experts believe the Giants will miss the playoffs.  The Sports Guy on espn. com is offering the following: Prediction No. 9: The Giants finish either 7-9, 6-10 or 5-11.   Plleeeasseee.  If you know anything about football, you know that is unlikely for a defending Super Bowl champion, particularly one with a tough defense that has proven over the years it can win on the road.  At least Sports Illustrated is picking the Giants to go 9-7 and win one playoff game.  I’m not saying the Giants will repeat, or even that they’re a lock to win the division (the Cowboys are loaded and dangerous and perhaps the favorite in the NFC).  I’m simply saying the Giants should at least get a little more respect than they’re getting.  Their next two games are at St. Louis and home against Cincinnati.  It’s very possible the G-men will begin the season 3-0, and there are several idiots out there thinking they won’t make the playoffs?  If they were playing in the AFC maybe, but not in the mediocre NFC.

Now, to be fair, I offer my picks for the season, and I have as much chance of being wrong as anyone else (and probably will be).  It is easy to forget that there is numerous turnover in the league every year, and there will always be surprise teams, as I offer a couple of shockers below. 

NFC EAST CHAMP: Dallas (13-3)  The Cowboys blew an opportunity last year with a home playoff loss.  The offense returns loaded as ever, and if everyone on the roster behaves this is the team to beat in the NFC, and maybe in the league.  The addition of Pacman Jones is huge if he stays out of trouble, as he is one of the top kick returners in football and a solid corner.  Zach Thomas also shores up the linebacking core.  Tony Romo and Terrell Owens have a clear chemistry that will allow the offense to light it up again this season. 

NFC NORTH CHAMP: Minnesota (10-6) I still believe the Vikings would have been a real player for the Super Bowl if they had gotten Brett Favre.  Tarvaris Jackson will have pressure on him all season, but with Adrian Peterson back there the Vikings will score a lot of points.  The league’s top run defense got even better with the addition of Jared Allen.  Expect at least 15 sacks out of him. 

NFC SOUTH CHAMP: New Orleans (10-6) The Saints have as much offensive talent as anyone and were a real disappointment last year.  This year they should be able to turn it around and be able to win a division that is up for grabs.  Reggie Bush should explode in his third year with a healthy Deuce McAllister accompanying him at running back.  The key will be how well their defense performs.  Carolina could be a darkhorse here, but they are likely to wear down with so many key players having a history of injury. 

NFC WEST CHAMP: San Francisco (9-7) This is my real surprise pick.  The 49ers have stunk it up in recent years, and start a no name quarterback in J.T. O’Sullivan.  Thing is, Mark Martz has taken over as offensive coordinator and brings receiver Isaac Bruce with him from his old days in St. Louis.  Martz has had success with all kinds of quarterbacks (Kurt Warner in 1999 anyone?) and the Niners will benefit from playing in an awful division.  I actually thought about Arizona here, but the Cardinals will continue their pattern of underachieving in the desert. 

NFC WILD CARDS: New York Giants (11-5) Philadelphia (10-6)  Both teams play in the rugged NFC East, which produced both wild card teams last season.  The Giants, as mentioned above, are much better than the respect they are being shown, and will prove it by returning to the playoffs.  The Eagles prospects could well depend on the health of Donovan McNabb, but they finished last season with a bang and should continue that momentum into the season. 

You may notice the absence of Green Bay.  I stand by my opinion that they made a colossal error rejecting Brett Favre in favor of Aaron Rodgers, and that distraction will carry over.  You don’t simply replace a legend quarterback, it doesn’t happen.   I don’t think the Seahawks will make it because they have benefited for years playing in a weak division, but their lack of running game will kill them, in addition to the fact that they don’t have many stars that jump off the page. 

NFC WILD CARD ROUND: New Orleans over Philadelphia, N.Y. Giants over San Francisco

NFC DIVISIONAL ROUND: Dallas over N.Y. Giants, Minnesota over New Orleans

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: Dallas over Minnesota

AFC EAST CHAMP: New England (12-4) The Patriots will be very good once again.  The health of Tom Brady does seem to be a question mark, and a caveat here is that if he goes down they are done.  The Patriots will not challenge for 16-0 again but will be able to win the division without much difficulty thanks to a friendly schedule.  Randy Moss should have another big year. 

AFC NORTH CHAMP: Pittsburgh (11-5) The Steelers have a tough physical defense that will help them win a lot of games, particularly in cold weather late in the year.  Rashard Mendenhall could be a rookie of the year candidate and will help ignite their offense and will complement Willie Parker. 

AFC SOUTH CHAMP: Jacksonville (12-4) One of my other surprise picks.  This has traditionally been an automatic for Indy, but the Jaguars are ready to break out.  Their defense is without question a top five unit, and the offense will benefit from the addition of Jerry Porter at wideout.  The Jaguars nearly upset the Pats in the playoffs on the road last year.  David Garrard is underrated as a passer and it wouldn’t shock me to see him in the Pro Bowl. 

AFC WEST CHAMP: San Diego (11-5) The Chargers biggest question is if they can stay healthy.  LaDainian Tomlinson appears healthy and ready to go, but Antonio Gates does not.  Shawne Merriman declined surgery so he could play this year, and that will be interesting to see if that affects the Chargers.  Still, there is enough talent that they are the division favorites considering the rest of the division. 

AFC WILD CARDS: Indianapolis (10-6) Denver (10-6)  The Colts will still make the playoffs even if they don’t win the division.  Peyton Manning is still Peyton Manning and the offense will be good as usual.  Call me crazy, but I think there could be a leftover effect from their stunning playoff loss to San Diego last year.  The Colts in recent years have debunked the theory they can’t win on the road, but something doesn’t seem right about this team entering the season.   As for the Broncos, I realize this looks like a hometown pick, but I expect big breakout years from Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall.  The run defense can’t possibly be any worse than last year, yet the Broncos still managed seven wins as bad as it was.  Slight improvement in that area should lead to a few more wins, and the fact they have four games against the Chiefs and Raiders will put them in the playoffs.

I’ve left out several good teams, many of which would make it if they were playing in the NFC.  The Jets will barely miss out of the postseason, and it won’t be Brett Favre’s fault they don’t get there.  The Jets made several improvements in the offseason, but a difficult early schedule will put them behind an eight ball they won’t be able to get in front of.  The Titans are a solid team that made the playoffs a year ago, but this year they will also fall just short.  I believe the Browns, one of the “hot” teams in this year’s media, were a fluke last year.  It would not shock me to see Derek Anderson usurped as the starting QB by Brady Quinn at some point, and that will doom the Browns. 

WILD CARD ROUND: Pittsburgh over Denver, Indianapolis over San Diego

DIVISIONAL ROUND: Jacksonville over Pittsburgh, New England over Indianapolis

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: Jacksonville over New England

SUPER BOWL: Dallas over Jacksonville    

The Cowboys have every piece necessary to win it all.  They came very close last season, and I believe they too would have beaten the Patriots in a Super Bowl rematch had they had the chance.  Last year’s playoff loss will serve as motivation all year and this season they will be able to get it done. 

Before we wrap up, I also offer my selections for the rest of week one.  Picks do not take point spread into account:

– Bills over Seahawks: The Bills are an intriguing team, and the Seahawks are banged up. 

– Dolphins over Jets: A mini upset, but the Dolphins will be significantly improved.  Chad Pennington gets revenge.

– Patriots over Chiefs: The question is will Kansas City even get a first down.  This is a complete mismatch.

– Ravens over Bengals: Both teams will be bad this year.  Cincy has a potentially explosive offense, but the Ravens defense will help them pull this one out at home.

– Steelers over Texans: Houston is improving, but a rough assignment for the opener.

– Cowboys over Browns: This will be a good game, but the Cowboys pull it out on the road.

– Colts over Bears: Colts win opener at new stadium, Bears quarterback woes continue

– Jaguars over Titans: Jaguars win tough road opener in a key division game off the bat

– Broncos over Raiders: Even without Brandon Marshall, the Broncos make enough plays to win on the road

– Chargers over Panthers: No Steve Smith, no chance for Carolina.  Chargers roll at home

– Eagles over Rams: Philadelphia rolls at home against a Rams team trying to figure out its identity

– Lions over Falcons: Dud game of the week…Two bad teams square off at the Georgia Dome

– Vikings over Packers: Adrian Peterson begins spectacular season with Monday night show at Lambeau…Packers see how life will be without Favre

– Saints over Buccaneers: Saints win emotional opener at the Superdome against division rival

– 49ers over Cardinals: I’m shocked how many people are picking Arizona to win this game….Niners will be surprise team this season

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Football Thoughts

Posted by mizzou1028 on August 6, 2008

– I think the Broncos are darn lucky that Brandon Marshall wasn’t suspended for more games than the three handed down by Roger Goodell.  Considering the suspension will likely be reduced to two games after Marshall undergoes counseling, the Broncos should be thankful they aren’t losing their star receiver for half the season.  Granted, Marshall will miss two division games (at Oakland and home versus San Diego) but at least he isn’t out for a longer period of time.  Marshall is still poised to have a big year on the heals of a 102 catch season, and hopefully he has learned his lesson about toeing the line off the field.

– The Broncos have a couple of injury concerns already in camp that haven’t been discussed much.  One is center Tom Nalen, who sat out the final 11 games last season after tearing his right biceps, and is currently recovering from off-season surgery on his left knee.  Nalen will likely miss the entire preseason (let’s be honest – that’s not really important) but it doesn’t seem for sure as though he’ll be ready for the opener at Oakland.  The fact that Nalen is missing time now also begs the question as to whether he’ll be able to finish the season healthy.  Nalen is the leader of the offensive line and his absence was definitely noticeable last year.

– The other injury is to rookie running back Ryan Torian.  Torian was carried off the field this morning after being hit by Jamie Winborn and Nate Webster.  Torian suffered a broken elbow and will miss 6-8 weeks, meaning at the earliest it will be late September before he can return to action.  Even though he was selected in the fifth round, the Broncos had high hopes that Torian could become the feature back in the offense because his running style is a perfect fit for the team’s running scheme.  Torian will now miss the rest of camp and the preseason, which is more important for a rookie because he needs that period to adjust to the rigors of the NFL, plus it might actually impact Torian’s chances of making the team. 

– As far as Brett Favre is concerned, I think the Days of Our Lives theme music is appropriate here.  This has become such a circus it’s ridiculous.  At this point, if the Packers are that convinced that Aaron Rodgers is their guy and they don’t want Favre around, they should just release him.  Of course, they’re not going to do that because Favre would sign with division rival Minnesota immediately if not sooner.  It’s funny, I’m tired of hearing about Favre, but on the other hand I’m dying to see what happens next in this saga.  It has gotten to the point where it’s so crazy that it is rapidly becoming entertaining and tiresome at the same time.  Regardless of how it turns out, any Favre game against the Packers will be must see, wherever Favre ends up playing.  That is, if he ends up playing.

– It will be interesting to see how this affects Favre’s legacy.  He’s a sure fire Hall of Fame lock for sure, but will he be remembered for this drama at the end of his career?  I am intrigued to see how Favre will be recalled in ten, or even five years.

– It is also interesting how because of the Favre saga, we haven’t heard much about the other 31 teams in the league besides the Packers.  Maybe this is one of the reasons why it doesn’t quite seem like it should be time for football yet.  Of course, it is only preseason right now, so really we’re still a month away from any football that matters, but I don’t generally remember football sneaking up on me as much in previous years as it has this year.  Maybe it won’t seem that way once the Broncos have their first preseason game (or as I prefer to think of it, glorified controlled scrimmage) on Saturday night.

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Thoughts on the Broncos and Rod Smith

Posted by mizzou1028 on July 30, 2008

– What happened to the summer?  The Broncos’ first preseason game is a week from Saturday, and it doesn’t quite feel like football time yet.  Not that I’m complaining, I still get way more excited for football than all of the other sports combined. 

– The more I think about the Broncos the more optimistic I am they can at least compete for a wild card.  I really like the idea of D.J. Williams moving back to outside linebacker, for that should have more impact on defense than people may realize.  He will have more freedom to make plays than he did at middle linebacker last season, and that will have a trickle down effect on the rest of the defense.   I also like the addition of Dewayne Robertson at defensive tackle.  His presence should improve the team’s ability to stop the run and generate a pass rush, which could have the trickle down effect of more interceptions for Champ Bailey and friends in the secondary. 

– I also am convinced Jay Cutler will have his best season yet.  Keep in mind he was battling diabetes last season and didn’t know it.  This year he is better prepared to handle the situation.  He is also entering his third year in Mike Shanahan’s offense.  The offensive line will be improved by the simple fact that they are entering the season healthy, something they never were last year.  The offense really has the potential to be explosive like it hasn’t been in a couple of years.  That being said…….

– I really hope Brandon Marshall has learned his lesson.  I also hope that Roger Goodell isn’t too hard on him, even if Marshall may deserve some punishment for his off the field behavior in the past year.  Even a four game suspension would have a big impact on the Broncos, for that would cause Marshall to miss division road games at Oakland and Kansas City.  Those are both winnable games, but with Marshall out would become that much tougher to win, not to mention the Broncos would be significantly shorthanded at home against San Diego in week two.  That’s tough enough, but if Marshall is suspended for eight games, not out of the question considering how tough Goodell has been on those that don’t toe the line, than I shudder to think about where the Broncos would be before Marshall could return in November.  The amount of games Marshall is suspended (and word is it will be two at the bare minimum) could end up being the most important number for the Broncos in 2008. 

– Regardless of any suspension, the fact that Bronco great Rod Smith has taken Marshall under his wing means we shouldn’t hear about any more off the field incidents for Marshall.  Smith’s presence around Marshall and the rest of the team can only mean good things for the organization.

– Speaking of Smith, I don’t think he gets his due nationwide.  He should be a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame based on his numbers and contributions to the organization, but his name doesn’t seem to come up when talk turns to great receivers of the 90s.  Considering that only two Broncos are in the Hall of Fame (John Elway and Gary Zimmerman), it doesn’t seem as though the national voting panel will be that quick to acknowledge Smith. 

– You don’t think there is a bias against Smith nationally? Let’s compare him with Michael Irvin, who got inducted into the Hall last season in his second year of eligibility.  The only reason Irvin didn’t get in on the first ballot was because of his off the field issues.  Irvin in his career caught 750 passes for 11,904 yards and 65 touchdowns for the Cowboys.  Smith? He caught 849 passes (99 more than Irvin) for 11,383 yards and 68 touchdowns.  Both receivers played an identical 12 seasons, and while Irvin won one more Super Bowl than Smith, Irvin had the luxury of Troy Aikman throwing to him most of his career.  Smith compiled a lot of his numbers with Brian Griese and Jake Plummer throwing to him, after just four seasons with John Elway.  Considering Smith has been as clean as a Boy Scout his entire career, he should be a first ballot lock right? Or rather, he would be if he wore the jersey of an east coast team his entire career.  It will be interesting to see what actually happens when Smith is eligible for induction in five years. 

– I am convinced that the Broncos should have more guys from their past in the Hall of Fame.  It is absolutely inexcusable that the Hall doesn’t include Randy Gradishar, Floyd Little and Lionel Taylor.  I also would make a big case for Terrell Davis, who has been a finalist a couple of times, but it is fair to wonder if he played long enough.  The point is, if any of the above mentioned players played for the Giants or the Cowboys or the Redskins, they would have been in easily.  The voters say there is no bias, but it is obvious that there is one. 

– Next winter will be interesting because Shannon Sharpe will be eligible for the first time.  If he isn’t inducted immediately, they should blow up the place.  It would a real farce if the greatest tight end in the history of the game didn’t get in on the first try.

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Favre or no Favre?

Posted by mizzou1028 on July 9, 2008

I don’t know any more about the nuances of the rumors surrounding a possible return to the NFL by Brett Favre than the man in the moon.  I don’t know if Favre is really feeling the itch to return just months after an emotional retirement press conference, or if this is just being fueled by the media to fill up time when they have nothing else to talk about.  I don’t know what Packers management is thinking on this.  What I do know is that if Favre does want to return, and the Packers say no thanks, than they had better be prepared for it to backfire.  There is not a good track record in NFL history for replacing legend quarterbacks.  In fact, it is about as close to guarantee for failure as there is in the sport.  Nothing against Aaron Rodgers, who played well against Dallas last year when Favre was injured, but if the Packers really think they’re better off with Rodgers than they would be if Favre came back, they are probably in trouble.

The list of quarterbacks that have tried to follow legends in NFL history is a rather dubious one.  By the nature of it, trying to follow a Hall of Famer is not an easy task anyway, particularly when a young signal caller is trying to replace a guy who’s an icon, like Favre is in Green Bay.  Terry Bradshaw won four Super Bowls in the 1970s with Pittsburgh, but it wasn’t until Ben Roethlisberger in 2005 that the Steelers really had any stability at the position after Bradshaw’s retirement.  Bradshaw was followed by among others Cliff Stoudt, Mark Malone, David Woodley, Scott Campbell, Bubby Brister, Neil O’Donnell and Kordell Stewart.  The Steelers had a number of good teams between Bradshaw’s retirement and their Super Bowl win in ’05, even making the Super Bowl in 1995 with O’Donnell, but all of those guys had to play in Bradshaw’s shadow.  How about guys who have followed John Elway in Denver?  Try Brian Griese, Gus Frerotte and Jake Plummer.  The Broncos went 6-10 in 1999 the first year without Elway, and this was with a team that won back to back Super Bowls in ’97 and ’98.  There is no doubt that the Broncos would not have been near that bad in ’99 if Elway had returned to play for another season.  As a side note, you could even make the argument (however thin) that Terrell Davis never would have torn his ACL had Elway returned.  See, that happened on a play where Griese threw an interception into double coverage that Elway never would have thrown, and Davis got injured trying to make the tackle.  How about the Miami Dolphins post Marino?  Again you’ll find Brian Griese’s name among the replacements, and actually Frerotte’s as well, in addition to Jay Fiedler, Damon Huard, Joey Harrington, Cleo Lemon, A.J. Feeley and Sage Rosenfels.  Miami STILL has no stability at QB since Dan Marino retired in 1999.  There is no doubt that Miami fans would have gladly taken one more season with Marino at the helm in 2000, if nothing else for one more shot at a run before the inevitable rebuilding process.

The point of all this is not to say that Aaron Rodgers will fail.  Truth is, we have no idea how he will do.  It is reasonable to say however that being quarterback of the Packers for a full season is quite different than coming in as an injury replacement for one game.  The point is that if the Packers are that fast to say goodbye to Favre, and are ready to take their chances with Rodgers, they should be prepared for the team to struggle.  In fact, history shows they are likely to miss the playoffs with Rodgers at quarterback based on the track record of teams the season following the retirement of a legend quarterback, particularly when that quarterback is the face of the franchise.  If Favre wants to come back and play one more season, the Packers should welcome him back with open arms, period.  Favre had one of his best seasons last year, and there is no reason to think he can’t still play at a high level if he wants to.  Can you imagine Mike Shanahan in 1999 if Elway said he wanted to return a week before camp, even in the wake of his retirement press conference?  Can you imagine Shanahan telling Elway, “no I think we’re set with Brian Griese, thanks”?  Me neither.

Whether Favre actually plays this season or not will be interesting to see.  It will more interesting if he wants to play and the Packers wave him off.  If that were the case, the Packers would have to either release him, allowing him to play for another team, or they would have to trade him, neither of which would be an easy pill to swallow for Green Bay fans.  If the thought of Favre in another uniform makes a Packer fan want to throw up, than imagine Favre playing for arguably the one contending team that is missing a quarterback.  The one team in the league that is set at pretty much every position except for quarterback.  A team that made a big splash in the offseason bringing in Jared Allen (arguably the league’s top defensive lineman) and a good receiver in Bernard Berrian.  A team with one of the NFL’s top rushing attacks and a team that in recent years has been amazingly stingy defensively against the run.  A team who’s current top QB is very young, inexperienced, and could use a year under Favre.  A team that as currently constructed has been picked to win the Super Bowl by Sports Illustrated’s Paul Zimmerman.  That would be the Minnesota Vikings, prime division rival of the Packers.  If the Packers are that sure they would rather take their chances with Aaron Rodgers, they should envision this scenario: Week one, Monday night at Lambeau Field, Packers-Vikings, Favre coming out of the tunnel in Vikings purple.  It should be enough to make any Packer fan want to throw up.  That is, until they envision Favre holding the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season in a Vikings hat, after the Packers have suffered through a 6-10 season under Rodgers.

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Big Year for Shanahan?

Posted by mizzou1028 on June 27, 2008

I know, football season is still way off in the distance.  We’re only halfway through the baseball season and the NBA draft just concluded.  The way I see it though, we have only one month to go before the start of training camp, and it is impossible not to get excited about a new NFL season.  No matter how the previous season went, I always find myself drooling with anticipation over the start of the next season.  I am optimistic about the Broncos prospects in 2008, even if the realistic side me worries there are more holes on the roster than there are in Swiss cheese.  I can see anything from 12-4 and competing for a division title to heaven forbid a team that will struggle to win even a handful of games.  Mike Shanahan has run out of excuses this year, for he has gotten rid of virtually everyone around him.  I think this season is extremely important for the future of the franchise because Shanahan has to prove that the decisions he made are correct.  If the Broncos miss the playoffs again this year, it will definitely be time to take a look at Shanahan’s future.

There are certainly plenty of positives.  Jay Cutler posted very good numbers last year for being in his first full year as a starter, and now that we know he was battling diabetes and didn’t know it, it makes his season seem impressive.  I expect Cutler to have a big year, if nothing else because it will be his third season in Shanahan’s offense and he should be even more comfortable running it.  I really think Cutler started to develop a chemistry with Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler last year, and if they are both healthy (and in Marshall’s case not suspended, more on that in the negatives), then the offense should put up big numbers.  I like the additions of Keary Colbert and Darrell Jackson, both solid veterans who can get open.  The team should also be in better shape on the offensive line.  Tom Nalen and Ben Hamilton will be healthy, and I think Ryan Clady is a brilliant draft pick at left tackle.  Plus, the running game is always solid under Shanahan, especially with Daniel Graham, arguably the best blocking tight end in football, returning. 

Defensively, there is really nowhere to go but up.  With a third defensive coordinator in three years, there are bound to be some growing pains, but the team can’t possibly be any worse against the run than it was last year.  D.J. Williams will move back to outside linebacker after manning the middle last year, and that will give him a much better chance to make plays.  The defensive line will be in better shape with Jarvis Moss and Ebenezer Ekuban returning from injury, plus Elvis Dumervil remains a solid pass rusher.  The addition of Dewayne Robertson from the Jets could help if his knee holds up, and of course Champ Bailey remains the top cornerback in the NFL.  If the defense can return to the form it showed in 2005 and the first half of 2006, things could definitely be looking up again for the Broncos.

Unfortunately there are concerns heading into the season, highlighted by the offseason behavior of Marshall.  There is talk the NFL could suspend Marshall based on his three arrests in a one year calendar period, stemming from recent reports of a domestic dispute involving Marshall in March.  If Marshall is suspended for the start of the regular season, it would disrupt his chemistry with Cutler and have a trickle down effect on the rest of the receiving corps.  Marshall has all kind of potential, catching 102 passes in his first full season last year.  He has the potential to be a real team leader with his skills, but if his off the field behavior keeps getting the way, it will hamper his progress.  Marshall expects to be ready for camp after suffering serious arm injuries while roughhousing with his family last spring, but it remains to seen if that will impact him at any point this season.  The running game is pretty much banking on the fact that Shanahan has always had success, but can Selvin Young be an every down back?  Or will rookie Ryan Torian be the answer?  Those are definitely questions to be answered in camp.  There is also some slight concern about the secondary despite the presence of Bailey.  John Lynch is definitely not getting any younger and Dre’ Bly has a tendency to be gambler.  These concerns don’t even take into account what may be the biggest hole on the roster, the absence of a proven kicker.  I have a hard time figuring out why they Broncos didn’t retain Jason Elam, and I’ve never heard of the kicker that is currently on the roster.  Elam has been one of the best clutch kickers in the NFL for 15 years, and whoever tried to replace him will be filling some very big shoes.  It almost seems inevitable that Elam’s replacement will miss a key field goal at some point this season, potentially costing the Broncos a game. 

It’s funny really.  Last year’s team could have easily been 10-6 if not for one blown coverage against Green Bay, a blown fourth quarter lead in Chicago, and red zone execution against Jacksonville.  They also could easily have been 4-12 if not for last second field goals by Elam against Buffalo, Oakland and Pittsburgh.  There frankly isn’t much difference between the top of the league and the bottom, and there are so many things that go into determining a team’s fate.  I certainly hope the Broncos will be successful this year, and the fact that there is a grey area about how good they’re going to be only makes the season even more intriguing. 

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More Random Thoughts

Posted by mizzou1028 on May 12, 2008

Sometimes I wonder if the national networks realize there are other baseball teams we might want to watch besides the Red Sox and the Yankees.  ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball game last night featured the Red Sox and the Twins, which is fine, it’s a good matchup.  Thing is, ESPN is showing that matchup AGAIN this evening, despite several other good games on the schedule.  It is not in any way a shock that next week’s Sunday night game will feature the Yankees and Mets.  The TBS Sunday afternoon schedule has been similar so far.  Of the first eight games on their schedule in April and May, five involve either Boston or the Yankees.  It is fairly obvious why the networks like big market teams, among the chief reasons being that a game involving two large market clubs is likely to garner a larger audience and therefore more advertising dollars.  Still, it seems appalling to me that my Colorado Rockies have been shown on national TV exactly ZERO times so far this year the season following a World Series appearance.  Now, clearly their start this season hasn’t been worthy of much national air time, but a World Series appearance should guarantee at least some national exposure during the first month of the following season.  With the exception of one Saturday regional broadcast on Fox that was shown to less than a third of the country, the Rockies have not been shown any respect by the national MLB broadcast partners, while they continue to shove the same teams down our throat every week.  I realize that some teams have more sex appeal than others, and it goes without saying that certain teams will receive more exposure than others.  That being said, as a true fan of the game I want to see the best teams, not the ones with the most tradition or star power.  It might surprise you who has the best record in the National League right now.  I’ll give you a hint, it’s a franchise that’s won two World Series since 1997, but they’ve also had exactly zero national tv appearances this year and aren’t scheduled for any in the future.  Go ahead and guess, I’ll wait.

The answer would be the Florida Marlins, who are 23-14 and have a three game lead in the NL East, better than the mighty Mets, Phillies and Braves, all of whom are loaded with national TV appearances this year.  Now, as a fan of the game, I just might want to actually watch a Marlins game once in awhile if they really are that good.  Thing is, I have no idea because I haven’t had a chance to see them.  Yet I’ve been saddled with a number of games involving the Detroit Tigers, who made a big splash in terms of offseason spending and currently sit in last place in the AL Central, behind the mighty Kansas City Royals.  It might also surprise you to learn that Tampa Bay is 21-16, only a game and a half behind Boston in the AL East.  Or how about the Oakland A’s, pretty much coming out of nowhere to lead the AL West at 23-16?  Again, I don’t know much about either team except for the stats that I see because they’re never on TV either.  It was quite amusing actually to watch the national announcers embarrass themselves last October trying to announce the Rockies’ games as they made their run to the World Series.  It was clear some of them weren’t at all prepared and hadn’t watched the team play all year, even though they proved to be a legit playoff team.  It will be amusing if the networks find themselves in the same position again this year.  I just wish the networks would vary the teams they show on occasion.  I would imagine most fans would agree they don’t always want to be stuck watching the same teams every night.

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ESPN.com has released it’s NFL power rankings based on where they feel the teams currently stand after the draft and other acquisitions.  I find it inexcusable that the Giants are down to number six after they won the Super Bowl.  To me, they should be number one at least until they play a real game in September, unless they were to completely blow up the roster, which they haven’t.  It also interesting they have the Colts at number two, ahead of the Chargers at three, even though the Chargers beat the Colts on the road in the playoffs last year.  Strangely enough, I’m not that surprised they have my Broncos at 23, because on paper it does seem like there are questions regarding multiple parts of the roster.  Many national folks don’t seem to be big fans of the team’s draft, although i think they did a good job filling roster needs, even if it’s impossible to actually evaluate the draft until these guys have played multiple seasons.  Frankly, the power rankings are fun to talk about, particularly for someone like me who is constantly in football withdrawal during the offseason, but they really mean nothing.  There will be several teams that will end up better than advertised and there will be several that will be worse than advertised.  Still, it does provide for some interesting discussion, nothing more. 

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The Glass is Half Full

Posted by mizzou1028 on May 2, 2008

I guess it’s not really a surprise that things came to such an abrupt end for the Nuggets and Avalanche this week.  The Nuggets at least gave something resembling effort in their final game on Monday night, and even though they didn’t win at least they seemed to have a desire to not go down quietly.  I still stand by what I said that changes need to be made in the offseason, although I am somewhat encouraged by George Karl saying he’s going to change his approach next season and be more demanding.  It will be interesting to see what direction the Nuggets take as they try to take that next step.  As much I want them to start by unloading Kenyon Martin, it is also realistic to say that no other team will want to absorb his ridiculous contract.  While the team’s quick exit is disappointing, it is better than the 11-71 days.  Hopefully with Karl’s new approach they can figure out what it takes to win a playoff series. 

On the surface it may seem like the Avalanche gave up last night as they got swept by Detroit.  To think I had (only very very briefly) contemplated shelling out $100 a seat last week to see the renewal of the Avs-Wings rivalry.  The Avs do get a pass in many respects for their quick exit against Detroit because they were after all missing half their team in game four.  Heck, just the Avs scratches on Thursday night would be a pretty darn good team.  I don’t think it’s at all a stretch to say that the series could have easily turned out differently if the Avs had a healthy Forsberg, Stastny, Smyth, Wolski and Svatos.  None of them were anywhere near the ice last night because of injuries.  It is also fair to say that Jose Theodore trying to play game one while battling the flu did nothing for his confidence the rest of the series.  That being said, the Avs were clearly not in the same league as Detroit.  The Red Wings were clearly the best team in the Western Conference all season and that has not changed in the playoffs.  It will be interesting to see what roster moves the Avs make this offseason, starting with Theodore, who does have a big contract.  It is hard to say whether or not he is the answer in goal because he did such a fabulous job in the first round against Minnesota and then did a complete 180 against Detroit.  I also hope that Joe Sakic elects not to retire and comes back for another season because he still is a terrific player and has a lot of hockey left in him.  The Avs took a step forward this season after missing the playoffs last year, and hopefully next year with a healthier roster they can take another step. 

I had promised some thoughts on the NFL Draft.  The pessimistic side of me is slightly annoyed that the rival Chiefs and Raiders seemed to clean up.  The Raiders scored a terrific running back in Darren McFadden, but it will be interesting to see if he actually helps them win more games.  The Raiders have certainly made a big splash with a number of their offseason moves, but it remains to be seen whether they have the leadership to make things work.  I still say the game has passed Al Davis by and that somehow all of their flashy new pieces will not fit together to make a puzzle.  As for the Chiefs, I am still trying to figure out how Glenn Dorsey fell into their lap at number five.  Dorsey seemed to be the unanimous choice for best player available, a defensive tackle who dominated the line of scrimmage at LSU and is expected to make an immediate impact in the NFL.  That steal highlighted what many seem to think is a great draft for the Chiefs.  As for the Broncos, most of the so called experts don’t seem to think they did as well.  While it may not have been a flashy draft, I think they did a good job drafting for need and filling holes.  Mike Shanahan seemed genuinely excited about this draft class, and while of course every coach is going to say they got the guys they wanted all along, Shanahan’s statements somehow seemed more believable this time.  For him to declare Ryan Clady the starter at left tackle from day one is unusual.  Shanahan is typically of the “let them come in and compete” mode.  That right there tells you how much Shanahan is sky high on Clady.  The pick made tremendous sense in the first round because the Broncos need to replace the retired Matt Lepsis at left tackle.  Not to mention Lepsis had a down year last year, so the Broncos want to be sure their franchise QB is protected.  Their second pick also made a lot of sense in Virginia Tech wideout Eddie Royal.  While the Broncos signed Keary Colbert and Darrell Jackson in the offseason and seem crowded at the position, Royal is a great pick because has the speed to make an impact as a kick returner.  The Broncos’ dead last ranking in starting field position had as much as anything to do with their 7-9 record last year.  Now, I’m not saying Royal is going to be Devin Hester, but if he can help the Broncos improve in that area, it will go a long way toward making them a better team.  I also love the selection of Arizona State running back Ryan Torian in the fifth round.  Torian slipped because of health issues, but if he can get healthy, he is the perfect fit the Broncos’ running scheme.  He’s a no nonsense runner and isn’t afraid to get tough yards late in a game.  With Mike Shanahan’s track record at finding running backs, there is no reason to suspect that Torian couldn’t be a huge steal in this draft.  

Truth be told though, the bottom line when trying to evaluate a draft is you can’t.  It will be minimum three years before we can go back and really evaluate how good or bad the Broncos or any other team did in this draft.  I remember hearing great things about Marcus Nash when the Broncos took him in 98, or hearing how George Foster was supposed to be the anchor at left tackle, or how Willie Middlebrooks was supposed to be the cornerback the Broncos were missing.   The draft is a small part in the overall picture of building a championship team, although it is becoming and more important to be able to find guys that will fit into your plans for many years so you don’t have to fill all those holes through free agency.  Call me crazy, but I am starting to get optimistic about the Broncos’ prospects in 2008, even if they still do need to find a kicker. 

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It’s Never Too Early To Plan Ahead

Posted by mizzou1028 on April 16, 2008

The 2008 NFL schedule is out!  Okay, so most people out there probably don’t really care, but for a football junkie like me this is a big deal.  It turns out that apparently I’m not the only one who waits on pins and needles for the release of the schedule; ESPN and NFL Network had simultaneous TWO HOUR specials yesterday that broke down seemingly every game on the 2008 slate.  If you think it’s insane to be interested in the timing of games that won’t take place until the fall, try booking a hotel in Green Bay on a Packers home game weekend.  Go ahead, try it now, I’ll wait. 

No vacancies?  I thought so.  Packers fans watch for the release of the schedule, and then it’s a mad dash to book hotel rooms on the weekends of home games.  This is how insane us die hard fans can get about the release of the schedule.  We want to make sure that nothing gets in the way of being able to watch our favorite team play.  Personally, I’m ecstatic about the timing of the Broncos’ lone Thursday night game in Cleveland (on Nov. 6) because it means I am free to attend a wedding that weekend without worry that I’ll be missing a Broncos game.  You’d be surprised how many people out there will wait to find out when their team will be playing before booking major events like weddings, and then scramble to book during their team’s bye week.  Seriously, do you want to risk missing the Patriots-Colts showdown because you prematurely scheduled a trip to a remote island with no television?

Planning purposes aside, I want to know what kind of road my team will be facing in the coming season.  Now, I already knew the Broncos’ home and away opponents for 2008 because those are set years in advance, but there is still a sense of anticipation knowing exactly when the games will take place and in what order.  I frankly am disappointed that the Broncos have no prime time home games this season; every regular season home game will be on a Sunday afternoon.  I suppose there are advantages to this (nicer weather, a semblance of routine if you go to all the games) but reading between the lines, this means the league believes the Broncos will not be very good.  The Broncos have three road night games, Monday nighters at Oakland (the season opener) and at New England plus the aforementioned Thursday game in Cleveland.  The Broncos have always been a team that even when they aren’t the best in the league have had their fare share of prime time appearances, in large part because the home environment at Invesco Field at Mile High should be one of the best in the league and worthy of at least one such game on that stage.   That point aside, it’s safe to say the Broncos’ offseason has been less than impressive, so perhaps the powers that be simply feel they are not a team that’s worthy of as many prime time appearances as the elite of the league.    It is interesting to note that it is impossible to tell at this time of year what teams will have a good year and which ones won’t.  This is a challenge the league faces as they try to decide which teams should garner the most appearances on prime time.  The flexible scheduling for the Sunday night games in the second half of the season does help a great deal with this, but it is still a challenge.

As a random side note, the league has selected two teams with lots of star power, the Chargers and Saints, to play a regular season game in London this year.  Now, I don’t necessarily have a problem with the league playing games outside the country, but I have an issue with the Saints of all teams being the one to lose a home game.  The Saints already lost a home game in 2005 because of Hurricane Katrina (and in fact couldn’t play any games in the Superdome that year) and now the Saints’ fans in New Orleans lose their one chance in an eight year time frame to see arguably the game’s most talented player in LaDanian Tomlinson.  So the Saints not only lose a home game, but their fans lose one of the Saints’ more attractive matchups that would have taken place in the Superdome.  It seems as though the NFL ought to be more concerned with taking care of its core fans here before trying to broaden the game abroad.  This doesn’t even take into account the disadvantage this puts the Saints in the NFC West race, playing only seven home games while the other teams in the division play eight.  Sure the Chargers have to play in London too, but they still get eight home games at Qualcomm Stadium.  Something about that just doesn’t seem fair. 

I do have to admit I am very excited overall from a football standpoint to see the schedule come out.  Maybe it’s because I’ve always had a larger interest in football than any other sport, even though I very much enjoy several others.  Frankly I’ve been in football withdrawal since the Super Bowl, and the release of the schedule means we’re getting a tad closer to a new season, even if it’s still far away on the radar. 

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Adios Javon!

Posted by mizzou1028 on March 6, 2008

Good riddance, that’s what I said to myself after Javon Walker signed with the arch rival Oakland Raiders after getting released by Denver.  Has anyone ever received a higher reward for fading fast as Javon Walker?  Seriously, the guy ends up with a new five year contract worth $56 million, $16 million of which is guaranteed, after the year he’s had?  Then again this is the Raiders.  How on earth does Al Davis think he still knows what he’s doing?  First they shell out $50.5 million over five years to keep no name defensive tackle Tommy Kelly, and then they overpay for Walker, who had received interest from other teams, but wasn’t exactly getting his door knocked down? Sure there were other teams interested in Walker, but several reports indicated he hasn’t worked out at all since the end of the season, and there were questions as to whether he could pass a physical with any team because of his knee, which has now required two operations in three years.  The fact is the Broncos actually tried to trade Walker before they released him, but couldn’t find any takers. 

Mike Shanahan seemed like he had a steal two years ago when he acquired Walker for a second round draft pick from Green Bay.  Sure, Walker was coming off a knee reconstruction and had missed the entire 2005 season after injuring his knee in week one, but the Broncos were getting a playmaker.  It did actually work, well for one season anyway.  Walker showed the big play ability he was brought in for, catching 69 balls in 2006 for 1,084 yards and 8 touchdowns.  Looking beyond those numbers though, Walker pretty much carried the team by himself on offense, or does anyone forget he put up most of those numbers with the immortal Jake Plummer throwing to him?  

Things actually started okay last season too, as Walker caught 17 balls in the first two games alone, both Broncos wins, although he didn’t have any touchdowns.  Walker inexplicably was held to two catches for 10 yards in week three against Jacksonville and then did not take the field again until week 12.  During that time we kept hearing how things were week to week as far as his status, and there were reports of more trouble in the already reconstructed knee.   Walker was ready to return following the bye week against Pittsburgh, having missed two games, and looked ready to go in practice in that week.  Then the Friday before the game he’s down in Houston having a second surgery on the already reconstructed knee.  In the meantime, Brandon Marshall began to emerge as the top target for quarterback Jay Cutler.  Marshall in fact finished with a great year, finishing with 102 catches for for 1,325 yards and seven touchdowns.  Walker after he returned in week 12?  He was held without a catch in his return against Chicago, caught one ball for seven yards at Oakland, sat out against the Chiefs with further knee trouble, and caught a whopping six balls in the final three games of the season for less than 50 yards. 

Walker pretty much wrote his ticket out of Denver during his end of season press conference the day after the final game against Minnesota, saying that he wanted to be elsewhere and that he felt he should be the number one receiver.  It became clear that Cutler and Marshall developed a connection during Walker’s absence, and that if Walker wanted to come back in 2008 it would be in a so called number two role.  With the Broncos having as many needs to fill as they do, they clearly weren’t about to pay a $5 million roster bonus for a guy who didn’t want to be here, so it is clear why they let him go.  I’m certainly of the mind that if a player doesn’t want to be part of the organization, get rid of him.  Admittedly, Walker is very effective when healthy, and the Broncos will miss his big play potential.  That being said, if Marshall can continue to shine next season, and if free agent signee Keary Colbert turns out to be as good as advertised, the Broncos could actually be in decent shape.  I still find it very hard to believe that someone was willing give Walker that kind of contract when it’s unclear as to whether his knee will hold up for one season, let alone five.  The silver lining is that if this goes wrong as I suspect it will, the Raiders will be the organization to suffer.  I can’t think of a more deserving owner or franchise to get stuck overpaying for a receiver that’s not likely to hold up the length of the contract and will more than likely bring an attitude problem to the locker room.  I can’t wait to hear the reception Walker will get when the Raiders come to Denver next season.  I just hope that this doesn’t backfire on the Broncos and that Walker doesn’t regain his Pro Bowl level in Oakland.  Then again, it is the Raiders, so the odds are with them not knowing what they’re doing.  Odds are they’ll be able to add Walker to their list of free agent failures (see Brown, Larry). 

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Random Thoughts for March

Posted by mizzou1028 on March 4, 2008

So the calendar has turned into March.  Never mind that it’s hard to fathom that we’re already two months into 2008.  This means one thing and one thing only: this is the best time of year for college basketball.  It is this time of year that reminds me why the college game is considerably better and more entertaining than the pro version.  I’m well aware that I recently wrote that I’m paying more attention to the NBA these days.  That still holds true, especially this season when the Nuggets may end up holding the distinction of the most talented team ever to miss the playoffs.  However, there is one thing the college game has that the NBA will never have, and that’s the passion involved in each game.  Have you ever once seen NBA fans charge the court to celebrate a big win?  No.  Do NBA fans arrive at a game three hours early to secure the best seats? No.  Do NBA games have raucous student sections that turn even the most mundane of matchups into an electric atmosphere? No.  

As much as I despise Kansas basketball, and the hatred is evident if you get to know me for five seconds, I had to give a tip of the cap while watching their game against Texas Tech last night.  It was senior night at Allen Fieldhouse, and as usual the place was packed.  That atmosphere is what makes college basketball so great.  Students at KU camp out for days to make sure they get seats for the next game, and regardless of the score (last night KU walloped Tech by 58 points) no one leaves the game early, ever.  I’ve been to NBA games where the score is tied with three minutes left and people are heading for the exits to beat traffic.  Seriously, how absurd is this?  People don’t leave movies early, so why do they leave games early, even when it’s competitive at the end?  That’s a rant for another time, but the point is you don’t see that kind of casual fan behavior at a college game.  Every college game has an electric atmosphere, virtually anywhere in the country, that is simply not duplicated at the professional level.  Even in a year where my Mizzou Tigers are just hovering over .500 at 15-14, I still pay much closer attention to the college season and in particular the Big 12 this time of year than I do any other sport.  The NCAA tournament is a unique event on the sports calendar partly due to its unpredictability, but it’s the passion of each game that makes the event special.  For me, the final few weeks of the regular season and the week of conference tournaments also provide the same intensity and excitement.  No matter who your team is, no matter how poor a season they’ve had, there’s always that minuscule chance they could win their conference tournament and make the big party.  That small chance alone makes the next few weeks of games worth watching.

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Have you seen some of these deals being shelled out in the early period of free agency in the NFL?  I know it’s always a time where teams want to show their fans that they’re doing something to try and improve the team, but some of these deals are insane.  How many of you out there have heard of Tommy Kelly?  He’s a defensive tackle who last year had 30 tackles and one sack for the Raiders, and didn’t play a down after suffering a season ending injury in week 8 against Tennessee.  The Raiders shelled out $50.5 million over five years to re-sign him.  That’s an awful lot of money to shell out for one sack.  Reports had some NFL GM’s saying, “Who is Tommy Kelly?”  How about Justin Smith, defensive end formerly of the Bengals, getting $45 million over six years to sign with San Francisco?  Smith had a whopping two sacks last year, and while talented, doesn’t seem like he’d be considered the so called missing piece to justify that kind of signing.  The Jacksonville Jaguars clearly thought that two interceptions was worth $6 million a year, as that’s what they’re paying former Charger cornerback Drayton Florence.  Seems as though the New England Patriots still have confidence in their more low key formula.  They elected not to re-sign WR Donte Stallworth (who went to Cleveland), CB Asante Samuel (who got a 6 year $57 million contract from Philadelphia, although he at least intercepted six passes last year) and CB Randall Gay (who signed with New Orleans).  These can be added to the list of big name players they have jettisoned in the past (David Givens, Deion Branch, Ty Law, Drew Bledsoe among them), and it’s a philosophy that seems to work for them.  As successful as they’ve been, maybe the answer isn’t to spend every dime you have on free agents every winter.  Then again, maybe the Patriots are just good at bargain hunting.  Their 3 year $27 million re-signing of star receiver Randy Moss seems like the biggest bargain of the winter. 

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Tonight Peter Forsberg returns to the Colorado Avalanche.  I really hope that this isn’t just a public relations move to bring him back.  If he is even 80 percent of the player he was before he left the club, then the Avalanche are about get a huge boost.  Right now they are on the cusp of playoff contention, but if he can contribute, then they might just make a run.  Last year felt weird without the Avalanche in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but if they make it back this year with Forsberg and Adam Foote having just returned to the team, it will be just like old times. 

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