Reid Fischer's World of Rants

Looking at the sports world through orange colored glasses

The Shanahan to KC (Just Kidding!) Saga

Posted by mizzou1028 on January 27, 2009

Last week was crazy for me for so many reasons, but I do have to recap some of my work week last week though.  It was hilariously entertaining (thanks to some REALLY boneheaded reporting by ESPN’s Chris Mortensen in particular). 

It started Wednesday night, when the NBC affiliate in Kansas City reported that the Chiefs were negoitating with Mike Shanahan and that he could be named Chiefs coach “within 48 hours”.  I was immediately skeptical about this when I was researching it that night and Thursday night because no other media outlet anywhere was reporting it.  Not ESPN, SI, or any of the other KC media outlets or Denver media.  Being that the Kansas City Star and Denver Post both completely ignored the story in their Thursday morning editions, I was 100 percent not worried. 

I get to work on Thursday morning, and I receive the following google chat message from one of my best friends who is a die hard Chiefs fan: “One Bronco fan on the Chief board said he bumped into Shanahan’s son at a mall in Denver, and his son said he would be coaching in KC.”  My immediate reaction to this is that if the source is a fan message board, it’s automatically garbage.  Mind you also, at this point Herm Edwards wasn’t fired yet, so the whole thing seemed very sketchy at best.  Nevertheless I figure it can’t hurt to check it out, and I quickly find that there is no truth to that rumor.  It seems as though Mike’s son Kyle, who is offensive coordinator of the Texans, is not even in Denver these days, so there is no chance anyone could run into him in a Denver mall.  Further, the NFL Network’s Adam Schefter informs me in an e-mail that there has been no contact whatsoever between Shanahan and the Chiefs.  Later that afternoon we put him on our show (he is a regular contributor for us during the season) and he makes it clear that there has been no contact and that Shanahan will not coach the Chiefs in 2009.  At this point I’m very convinced that this story is done and doesn’t have any legs, even though the NBC affiliate in KC stands by its report that night that Shanahan will be the coach. 

Last Friday is when things started to get really interesting.  Right before we go on the air for our show, we see that the Chiefs fire Edwards.  We thought nothing of it because it seemed to be a matter of time.  Roughly half an hour later, my email starts to blow up with notes from Kansas City:

“The ESPN ticker is saying that Shanahan is the new KC head coach!”

“KC radio stations are reporting it too!”

“Shanahan to KC likely.  It’s showing up on the ticker!  They got the KC media guy on saying that he knows this has been in the works!”

“It’s being reported by Chris Mortensen, wow!  He really knows his stuff this is freaking happening!”

Now, I don’t get ESPN news at work, so I’m puzzled by these reports I’m getting, being that there is no mention whatsoever on actual ESPN.  Sure enough though, the phones start to ring on the call in line: “Is there any truth to the report? Is Shanahan going to the Chiefs?”  It starts get crazy, so I email our trustworthy insider Schefter.  He emails me back one word, “FALSE!!!!”.  He offers to come on the air and explain.  He starts his comments with “ESPN is wrong”.  He clarifies for us that he had just talked to Shanahan’s agent, and that even at this point there has been zero contact between the two parties.  He once again makes it very clear that Shanahan will not coach the Chiefs in 2009.  At this point we have a full blown NFL Network vs. ESPN battle, because ESPN is now blowing up Mortensen’s report, saying that Shanahan and the Chiefs are “close to a deal.” 

We were very pleased to see very quickly that Schefter owned Mortensen on this story from the word go, because it wasn’t long before Mort had to embarrassingly backtrack on air.  The language in the ESPN story changed from “close to a deal” to “the Chiefs are targeting Shanahan.”  That is a HUGE difference.  To say the Chiefs are “targeting” Shanahan only means they are interested, and that doesn’t necessarily mean the interest is working both ways.  The story even backtracked more later on from “targeting” to “eyeing”.  Mortensen even later admitted on air that his original source eventually told him there had been no contact.  So how could the sides had even been close to a deal? 

Needless to say it was very entertaining to see Mortensen stumble over himself while trying to recover from the embarrassment of being so blatantly wrong on the story.  It was very comical to see big bad ESPN be so wrong, and to see them try to cover up their mistake with creative language for the rest of the night.  On the flip side, I really have to give kudos to Schefter, who was spot on in his reporting the entire time and has been tremendous in that regard his entire career.  Schefter told us from the beginning that the Chiefs and Shanahan were never in contact, in spite of rumors to that effect for at least a week, and he was absolutely correct.  Needless we are extremely pleased to have Schefter as a regular contributor on our radio program, and I would like to take his opportunity to thank him for his wonderful and accurate reporting.  I also don’t mean to completely bag on Mortensen, who has given years of good reporting to ESPN, but he really messed this story up.  Schefter did not.  I’m still extremely perplexed at who may have given Mortensen his information that was so clearly wrong. 

For me personally, the idea of Shanahan coaching the Chiefs would been gut wrenching.  While I am optimistic about Josh McDaniels, I’m frankly still not sure if the Broncos made the right move in getting rid of Shanahan.  The idea of Shanahan enjoying great success in Kansas City would be very difficult to process, so I am glad that Arrowhead is not where he is going.  I want to root for Shanahan at his next coaching stop, for I will always appreciate the two Super Bowl wins  he helped lead the Broncos to, but that would not have been possible for me if he went to the rival Chiefs. 

My Super Bowl pick is coming later this week.  I’m honestly not sure who is going to win yet, and I need to think about it a little bit more.

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Conference Championship Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on January 15, 2009

3-1 last week, which I’ll take any day in the playoffs.  I never thought in my wildest scenario I could dream up that the Arizona Cardinals would find a way to win in Carolina, let alone dominate every aspect of the game.  It just goes to show how unpredictable the NFL is.  At this point nothing would surprise me.  I just hope we don’t have any more games decided by a bad call or in overtime with a team not touching the ball.  Both of these games are such crapshoots at this point that I frankly don’t have any more idea who is going to win than the man in the moon, but like anyone else I can give it my best guess:

NFC Championship: Philadelphia at Arizona: Who would have thought when these teams met on Thanksgiving night, in a game most people couldn’t see because they don’t get NFL Network, that there would be a rematch in the NFC title game, and that the Cardinals would be the host?  The Eagles rolled from the word go in that game at Lincoln Financial Field, racing to a 21-0 lead before the Cards could even blink, and hit the finish line with a 48-20 victory.  Brian Westbrook had a monster game (which I remember too well because I was going against him in fantasy that week), scoring four touchdowns.  Turnovers doomed the Cardinals in that game, as Kurt Warner threw costly picks on each of Arizona’s first two drives (three picks altogether in the game), and because of that the Cardinals never had a chance.  The Arizona running game was also worthless, gaining just 25 yards on the night.  That game was also the first after Donovan McNabb’s benching in Baltimore, and was the jump start of Philly’s late run, as they have now won six of their past seven games.  All that being said, I think that game means nothing when taking a look at this one for several reasons.  

First, Arizona was at a significant disadvantage in that first meeting because they were forced to travel three time zones east for a Thursday game on a short week, while coming off a physical game against the Giants the previous Sunday.  The Eagles had the luxury of not having to travel anywhere, and that had to at least make some difference.  Second, the Cardinals are a much different team now.  That game was played in the middle of Arizona’s late season slump after they essentially had the division wrapped up.  Their running game is much more effective with the Edgerrin James resurgence (he didn’t even play in the first meeting) and their defense is much sharper now than they were in that game.  Third, we learned today that Brian Westbrook tweaked his left knee injury last week against the Giants.  If he’s not 100 percent, odds are he won’t repeat his monster performance from the first meeting.  Fourth, the game is in Phoenix, where the Cardinals went 6-2 this season and will have the benefit of a frenzied crowd on Sunday.

Both teams have really come out of nowhere to be in this game after essentially being left for dead during the season.  The Eagles hit rock bottom with their embarrassing tie in Cincinnati and then McNabb’s benching and subsequent blowout in Baltimore.  The Cardinals had become a complete embarrassment on the road, having gotten shelled in every way imaginable in the snow in New England in week 16.  Both teams enter the game hot, and a case can really be made for either team here.  The Eagles are experienced in NFC title games, appearing in their 5th in 10 years, while the Cardinals have a quarterback who has won a Super Bowl and will be playing at home where the crowd will be rocking.  It is a guarantee that this game will be closer than 48-20, regardless of who wins it.  I have to pick someone so…..

The Pick: Cardinals 28 Eagles 24.  Strange as it is since I thought Arizona would get shellacked last week, I like Warner to outduel McNabb indoors in the desert.

AFC Championship: Baltimore at Pittsburgh: This game will be so physical, you may just feel the pain in your living room if you’re watching on HD.  The Steelers won each of the first two meetings in extremely close fashion.  The first one was a Monday nighter at Heinz Field in week four, won by Pittsburgh 23-20 in overtime.  The Ravens actually led 13-3 at halftime, but Santonio Holmes turned the game with a 38-yard touchdown catch.  Both teams actually saw the ball in OT, but the Ravens punted before the Steelers got the winning field goal.  The yardage couldn’t have been any closer (243-237 for Baltimore) and each team turned it over once.  The second meeting in week 15 was also won by the Steelers in Baltimore 13-9 in controversial fashion, as we’re still not sure if Holmes had really broken the plane of the goal line on his winning touchdown catch with 43 seconds left.  The Steelers dominated the yardage this time (311-202), especially on their final drive of the game.  The Steelers started at their own 8 yard line with 3:36 left, and drove 92 yards in 12 plays for the winning score.  Each team committed two turnovers in this game, including an interception thrown by Joe Flacco with eight seconds left that sealed the win for Pittsburgh.

The Steelers swept the regular season series, but the two meetings combined were decided by just seven points.  I am frankly astounded that the line for this game is Pittsburgh by six at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas.  Since it is reasonable to assume that this will be an extremely low scoring game that will be decided by defense and turnovers, I find it hard to believe that the margin of victory either way is a lock to be by more than three points.  I think the Steelers have an advantage in that they should be more rested than the Ravens.  Pittsburgh had the bye, and then their defense stood on the sideline the entire third quarter (except for one play) against San Diego while the offense controlled the clock.  Baltimore had to give everything physically in their win against Tennessee, so it will be interesting to see what they have left in the tank.  

It is interesting to note that the Steelers recently have not fared well in home conference championship games.  They did win at home in 1995 against Indianapolis, but have home losses in AFC title games to San Diego (1994), Denver (1997), and New England (2001 and 2004).  In fact, the Steelers only recent AFC title game win came on the road in Denver in 2005 (one of my darkest memories as a Broncos fan – I still have nightmares about all the terrible towels that invaded our stadium that day).  Perhaps considering that history the Steelers should petition the league to play this game in Baltimore instead of at Heinz Field.  Baltimore is in particular not afraid of playing on the road, so the Ravens are not likely to be flapped.  The X factor in this game is Joe Flacco.  If he doesn’t make mistakes, the Ravens defense will keep them in the game and might have a chance to make plays themselves.  If the Steelers defense forces him into a couple of picks, than Baltimore will really face an uphill battle.  Pittsburgh on the other hand needs to be able to run the ball effectively and convert third downs, which would allow them to wear Baltimore’s defense down in the fourth quarter.  Both teams are banged up, and both defenses are outstanding against the run.  This game may be the biggest toss up of the year.  You’ve got a third meeting of two teams that always keep it close and are both playing well.  Oh, and they hate each other, so there would be no shortage of motivation even if this was a July scrimmage, let alone the AFC title game. Again, a point spread of six is completely absurd in this game, especially since my pick is…..

The Pick: Ravens 13 Steelers 10.  Something tells me the Ravens defense has enough in the tank to continue their high play.  It frankly wouldn’t shock me if this game was 6-3.

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A New Era in Broncoland

Posted by mizzou1028 on January 13, 2009

So the Broncos haven’t taken very long to move on from the Mike Shanahan era.  In less than two weeks, the Broncos have found his replacement: Josh McDaniels, previously offensive coordinator for the Patriots.  McDaniels had to be impressive in his interview considering the Broncos talked to seven guys, most of them with background on the defensive side of the ball.  I was of the thought that a defensive guy would probably make the most sense to replace Shanahan, considering that was the area where the Broncos have clearly fallen to the bottom of the league and needs the most attention.  Considering that Jay Cutler had specifically requested to keep the offensive assistants, specifically play caller Jeremy Bates, I thought for sure owner Pat Bowlen would get Steve Spagnuolo, defensive coordinator of the Giants, or one of the other defensive assistants he interviewed.  I was particularly excited about what I was hearing in regards to Vikings defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier and Buccanneers defensive coordinator Raheem Morris.  In the end though it is McDaniels.  I have to admit I am more encouraged about the hire after seeing the introductory press conference today.  McDaniels clearly handles himself well, and exudes a confidence that you expect out a head coach.  

McDaniels is only 32, which makes him easily the youngest coach in the NFL, so that alone gives some pause.  It is however interesting to note that Don Shula was only 32 when he was hired to coach the Baltimore Colts, and he’s one of the best coaches in NFL history, so it is not unprecedented for a young coach to take over a team.  John Madden was also head coach of the Raiders when he was 32 years old.  In fact, McDaniels started as an assistant on the Patriots when he was just 24, and quickly ascended the ranks on Bill Belichick’s staff.  Belichick wouldn’t allow just anyone to rise through the ranks on his staff that quickly without merit, so it is clear that McDaniels is bringing something to the table.  McDaniels also does have experience on both sides of the ball, for he was actually a defensive assistant with the Patriots during his initial time there.  That is very encouraging considering the Broncos will need help everywhere.  The word is also that McDaniels will bring in former 49ers coach Mike Nolan to be his defensive coordinator and may also bring along Dom Capers in some capacity.  Nolan and Capers are both really good defensive coaches and I will be very pleased if they end up in Denver on McDaniels’ staff.  

Perhaps the biggest plus McDaniels will bring to the table is his ability to work with quarterbacks, and that could provide a tremendous boost in the development and maturity of Jay Cutler.  It will be interesting to see how Cutler responds to McDaniels considering the young quarterback wanted the previous offensive staff retained, but once any initial tension is gone, I expect Cutler to really benefit from the relationship.  McDaniels of course worked with Tom Brady in New England, and also helped Matt Cassel lead the Patriots to an 11-5 record this season, even though Cassel hadn’t started a game since high school.  Cutler clearly needs some help in a lot of areas, for he is talented, and has a great arm, but has yet to take the next step in his game to become a great leader.  Cutler still tends to force the ball a lot, especially when things aren’t going well, and sometimes his attitude does not reflect what you would want from a team leader.  It remains to be seen whether McDaniels will accommodate Cutler’s request of keeping Bates and whether the new coach and Cutler’s favorite play caller could even coexist, but either way Cutler should benefit.  McDaniels has clearly shown an ability to work with quarterbacks, and perhaps the biggest reason he was hired to help Cutler hone his game and become the team leader he needs to be.  It is interesting to note that offensive coordinator Rick Dennison, who himself was a finalist for the head coach position, interviewed today with San Francisco to replace Mike Martz as their offensive coordinator, so it is definitely not a given that Cutler will get his wish about McDaniels keeping his favorite assistants.  

Obviously the success or failure of this hire cannot be judged immediately.  I believe it will take a minimum of three seasons before we see the true impact of this move on the organization.  I’m still not convinced that firing Shanahan was the right move, but McDaniels is in charge now.  I think a lot of times a change of scenery can be a positive, and hopefully that will be the case here for the Broncos.  Regardless of who the coach is, you cannot win in the NFL without good players, and it is clear Denver is lacking in defensive talent.  It is imperative that the Broncos have a good draft in April, and that they acquire defensive talent.  Offensively, the Broncos must build on a unit that finished second in yards but only in the 20s in points scored.  Having healthy running backs will help, and McDaniels’ track record indicates that he has a good chance to help straighten out the team’s red zone inefficiency and inopportune turnovers.  The hope is that McDaniels follows in the wake of John Harbaugh, Tony Sparano and Mike Smith, all first year coaches whose teams made the playoffs this year.

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Divisional Playoff Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on January 9, 2009

We won’t discuss last week where I went a mighty 1-3.  I have no doubt that Ken Wisenhunt, Norv Turner and Andy Reid are hoping that I pick against their teams again this weekend.  Regardless, there are great games on tap this weekend so let’s get right to it.

Baltimore at Tennessee: The Titans won 13-10 in Baltimore in week five, thanks to a Kerry Collins TD pass to Alge Crumpler in the final two minutes.  I expect the rematch to be very much the same kind of game, low scoring, physical and dominated by defense.  The Ravens come into the rematch red hot, having completely destroyed the Dolphins last weekend.  The Ravens defense is playing well enough to evoke memories of 2000, when they won the Super Bowl.  In that playoff year, the Ravens won their divisional playoff game on the road against…..you guessed it, Tennessee.  The Titans were the number one seed that year too, and the Ravens were a wild card just like they are this year.  Over the years the Ravens have proven they are not afraid of playing on the road, so home field advantage won’t be much of a factor in this one.  Baltimore actually has more offense this year than they did when they won the Super Bowl, despite the presence of a rookie quarterback in Joe Flacco.  The Titans meanwhile are well deserving of the number one seed, proving their worth for that spot with an impressive win over Pittsburgh in week 16.  Tennessee will also get the boost of getting Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch back along the defensive line, although center Kevin Mawae will not play, which will hurt the offensive line and the running game. 

In the first meeting, the Ravens were much more effective on the ground than the Titans, outgaining them 132-47.  This does not bode well for the Titans in the rematch in light of Mawae’s absence.  I don’t think the Titans will have much success if any on the ground as well as the Ravens’ defense is playing.  The running game will be extremely important in this kind of low scoring game that could be decided by turnovers.  Each defense forced two turnovers in the first meeting, so expect lots of them on Saturday.  I do have slight pause of picking a rookie quarterback on the road against the experienced Kerry Collins, not to mention I give Jeff Fisher a big edge in the coaching matchup over John Harbaugh, but I think the Ravens are just playing too well right now to be denied.  The Titans have the look of a flawed top seed, and the Ravens look like they might even be the AFC’s best team at the time of year where it matters most.

The Pick: Baltimore 20 Tennessee 10

Arizona at Carolina: This is a rematch of one of the more interesting games of the season, a 27-23 Panthers win in Charlotte in week 8.  Arizona actually had a 10-0 lead in the game, and even had the lead through most of the third quarter, before Steve Smith turned the game with a 65-yard touchdown catch along the sideline on the last play of the quarter.  It is interesting to note that the Cardinals outgained the Panthers thanks to a 381 yard day by Kurt Warner, but that the Cardinals were doomed by a lack of a running game and also seven penalties, not to mention an untimely Warner interception in the red zone in the fourth quarter.  DeAngelo Williams had a huge game for Carolina, gaining 108 yards on just 17 carries, and that was a big factor for the Panthers. 

What doesn’t bode well for Arizona heading into this game is that the Cardinals were 0-5 on the east coast during the regular season.  The other thing that doesn’t bode well for the Cardinals is the Saturday night weather forecast in Charlotte.  All things considered, the temperature won’t be that bad for the Cardinals (temps are expected to be in the 40s), but it is the 50 percent chance of rain that will seriously hamper Arizona’s passing attack.  The Cardinals may not have Anquan Boldin, who pulled his hamstring on his 71-yard touchdown catch last week against the Falcons.  In any case, the Cardinals will need a huge game on the ground from Edgerrin James to even have a chance, and I don’t see that happening against Carolina’s strong defensive front seven.  The Panthers have one of the league’s best running attacks with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, and that alone gives them an edge in the playoffs.  Steve Smith is also the kind of playmaker that can turn close games in his team’s favor, as he did in the first meeting between these teams.  I think the Panthers roll in this one, in large part because I can’t see Arizona playing well on the road when it matters and also in part because I think Carolina is a focused team on a mission. 

The Pick: Panthers 31 Cardinals 17

Philadelphia at NY Giants: These teams split their regular season meetings, with each team winning the away game.  The Giants won in Philadelphia 36-31 in week 10, while the Eagles won at Giants Stadium 20-14 in week 14.  The Giants ran for an astounding 219 yards in the first meeting, including 126 from Brandon Jacobs, while they held Brian Westbrook to just 26 yards rushing on 13 carries.  In the second meeting, Westbrook ran wild for 131 yards and added 72 receiving with 2 touchdowns, while Jacobs was held to 52 yards, and the Giants mustered just 88 rushing yards total.  It is interesting to note that the second meeting was the Giants’ first game since the Plaxico Burress fiasco, and that the G-men stumbled to a 1-3 finish in their final four games, while the Eagles went 3-1 over their final four regular season games, and then won on the road in Minnesota last week.

Generally speaking, anything goes when teams are meeting for the third time in a season.  Neither team has any secrets from the other, so coaching influence is minimal.  I think the key will be which team will be better able to establish the run, because judging from the first two meetings this game should be within a touchdown either way.  Call me crazy, but I think the Eagles are in much better position to run the ball effectively in this game.  Brian Westbrook is healthy and red hot, while Brandon Jacobs was anything but healthy for the final four games of the regular season.  Even though he has had the bye to regroup, something tells me that Jacobs will still have a hard time in this game.  The Giants did get a huge game from Derrick Ward against Carolina in week 16, so if Jacobs isn’t 100 percent, Ward will need to step up.  I also actually like Donovan McNabb better than Eli Manning in this game based on the way each QB has been playing recently down the stretch.  Manning actually has a difficult matchup against one of the league’s top secondaries with Asante Samuel and Brian Dawkins, especially with the receivers still in flux (Memo to Dominek Hixon: stop dropping passes).  The Giants may have home field and may be the defending champs, but I think the Eagles have more momentum and are actually in better shape to win this game.

The Pick: Eagles 24 Giants 17

San Diego at Pittsburgh: This is a rematch of one of the most bizarre games of 2008, an 11-10 Steelers win in week 11 at Heinz Field that really should have been 18-10, thanks to an incorrect ruling by the official on the game’s final play that wiped out Troy Polamalu’s return of a lateral for a TD.  In any case, Pittsburgh won this game without scoring a touchdown, thanks to three Jeff Reed field goals and a safety.  The Chargers’ one touchdown came courtesy of LaDainian Tomlinson, who is highly doubtful for Sunday’s rematch with a groin injury.  Ben Roethlisberger actually threw for 308 yards in the first meeting, although he got carted off the field in the regular season finale against Cleveland.  He says he will play Sunday, but how effective will he be?  The Steelers did get a 115 yard effort from Willie Parker in the first meeting, and they will need that again on Sunday.  One thing that doomed the Chargers in November was that Philip Rivers had one of his worst games of the season, throwing for just 164 yards and two picks.  If they want to have a chance Sunday, Rivers can’t have that kind of repeat performance.  One thing is for sure, Darren Sproles is guaranteed to have a much more productive game than the first meeting, when he had just one carry for zero yards and caught just one pass for nine. 

It is really crazy to think that if San Diego and Baltimore both win, the Chargers would host the AFC Championship Game in a season in which they were at one point 4-8.  I’m not sure if that’s good news or bad news for the league, but that scenario could put the Chargers in position to complete the highly improbable run from 4-8 to Super Bowl champion.  That’s the thing about the playoffs: once you’re in, what happened in the regular season doesn’t matter.  This is game is a challenging one to pick because of Roethlisberger’s health, and also considering the Chargers are a red hot team playing on the road against a team that earned a bye despite playing the most rigorous schedule in the NFL.  Over the years the Steelers have actually fared much better in road playoff games than they have at home, so that makes it highly tempting to pick San Diego.  On the other hand, no team has made the conference championship game with fewer than 10 wins since Jacksonville did it in 1996.  I think the Steelers will be out to prove something after their home flameout against Jacksonville last season, and I think the Steelers defense will find a way to slow down Rivers and Sproles enough.  Either way, this should be the best of the four games this weekend.

The Pick: Steelers 24 Chargers 21

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Shanahan Follow Up

Posted by mizzou1028 on January 5, 2009

I have now had a week to digest the idea that Mike Shanahan is no longer the Broncos head coach.  I have to admit I am still torn on whether or not this is the right move for the Broncos in the long run.  In many ways, it seems hard to justify dismissing a coach who is in the top 15 all-time in wins and who has won two Super Bowls.  On the other hand, Shanahan has not come close in the past decade to duplicating his early success with the Broncos.  I think ultimately the change of scenery should end up benefiting both the team and Shanahan.  It is a guarantee that Shanahan will coach again, if not this coming season than definitely in 2010, and it is inevitable that new surroundings will motivate Shanahan to prove he can still coach at a high level.  It also stands to reason that new blood in the Broncos coaching staff should provide an energy boost heading into next season as well.

So far I am actually mostly pleased with the Broncos’ list of candidates that they have come up with.  I am somewhat disappointed that Bill Cowher wants to stay with CBS, but realistically he wasn’t going to coach that far away from his family in North Carolina anyway.  I like the idea of a defensive coach, mainly because that side of the ball has continued to slip drastically for three years.  I think Steve Spagnuolo is my clear cut first choice right now.  He would certainly bring an aggressive defensive philosophy with a proven track record for success, having brilliantly come up with a scheme to slow down the Patriots in last year’s Super Bowl.  He has the type of personality and philosophy that would represent the kind of change Broncos owner Pat Bowlen seems to be hoping for.  Not surprisingly, Spagnuolo is being targeted by seemingly every team with a head coaching opening, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he elected to stay closer to the east coast. 

One reason why I think a defensive coach makes a lot more sense for the Broncos is that Jay Cutler has openly expressed a desire to keep the offensive side of the Broncos current coaching staff, including play caller Jeremy Bates.  An offensive coach would naturally want to take over that side of the ball, and I think the transition would be smoother if Bates was allowed to be retained.  That being said, Cutler does not run the team, and it certainly seems as though he could sometimes use an attitude adjustment when things aren’t going his way.  I think if Spagnuolo ends up staying closer to New York, I am very intrigued by the idea of today’s interviewee, Raheem Morris, recently promoted to Buccaneers defensive coordinator.  Other options I certainly wouldn’t be opposed to include Ravens defensive coordinator Rex Ryan, who has reportedly said he expects to be a head coach somewhere in 2009, or Vikings defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier.  All of the defensive  names mentioned have strong personailities and I think that is what the Broncos could use right now.  The Broncos wouldn’t be allowed to interview Ryan until Baltimore’s season is over, and that could end up being after the Super Bowl, so something tells me the Broncos will have a decision by then.  If they don’t, I would love to see Ryan on the radar screen.

As for Cutler and the offense, that area could use some tweaking too.  The Broncos finished second in the league in yards but more in the middle of the pack in points.  The Broncos’ red zone failure has been a big problem in recent years, so perhaps an offensive mind could be the answer to help those offensive shortcomings.   It has been long rumored that Bowlen would like have John Elway involved in the organization in some capacity, either in the front office or on the coaching staff.  While I certainly wouldn’t advocate Elway for the head coaching position (the track record throughout sports of superstars as coaches is not good),  I do think his presence in some capacity as a mentor/tutor for Cutler could be huge plus.  While Cutler had a great year statistically, he frankly did not make the leaps in terms of leadership and clutch play that was expected from him in his third season.  Cutler definitely has the tools be a great quarterback, and who better than Elway to help show him the way?

All told, I still think a defensive minded head coach would be better for the team as a whole.  The offense if nothing else will have the stable of running backs healthy again next season, and that will help a lot.  Plus, everyone will have another year of experience.  If a defensive coach is hired and the current offensive staff is retained, it could actually help preserve some continuity on the offensive side of the ball while working to fix the defensive shortcomings.  I really hope it’s Spagnuolo, but I’m not optimistic about that if the Broncos end up in a bidding war with the Jets for his services.  Regardless, I hope the new coach will bring energy and will work to turn the team around.

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Broncos Fire Shanahan

Posted by mizzou1028 on December 31, 2008

I was going to write a quick post today about my first college bowl game experience in person, having attended the Alamo Bowl last night in San Antonio, won by Missouri (my alma matter) over Northwestern (my sister’s alma matter) in overtime.  I was also going to offer my picks for wild card weekend before heading out of town again for New Years (quickie picks still offered below).  Those thoughts have been very quickly derailed by the news that the Broncos have fired Mike Shanahan after 14 years.  This is a move that I have very mixed feelings about, and probably won’t have a true concrete opinion about it for several more days while I wait for the shock and numbness to settle in, but here are my quick hit thoughts:

– The Broncos would not have won the two Super Bowls they have if not for Shanahan.  He’s the one that brought in Terrell Davis, he’s the one that gave John Elway the tools around him (Rod Smith, Ed McCaffrey), he’s the one that brought in the defensive personnel at the time to make that work.  His game day play calling in

those seasons was extraordinary.  The Broncos and their fans know that the team would probably still have zero championships if not for Shanahan’s time here, so let’s not forget that before we start congratulating Bowlen on a good move.

– That being said, the Broncos have won just one playoff game in 10 years since Elway’s retirement.  They have been embarrassed every time they’ve made the playoffs since Elway has departed, getting clobbered in playoff games in Baltimore and Indianapolis, and losing a rough AFC title game at home to Pittsburgh in convincing fashion.  All told, the Broncos have actually missed the playoffs in six of the ten years post-Elway, including the past three.  This is simply not acceptable.  I appreciate the two championships, believe me.  I realize we may never get another one.  I know it is hard to make the playoffs and win that time of year in the NFL, but too many times the Broncos have collapsed late in the year after a hot start.  The Broncos have not been one of the league’s elite for the better part of ten years.  

– On the other hand, the Broncos have only experienced two sub-.500 seasons under Shanahan: 1999 (the first year post-Elway) and 2007.  Shanahan was 138-86 in his 14 years with the Broncos, which is a much higher percentage than a majority of coaches in the league.  I guarantee every team with a coaching vacancy has already called Shanahan’s agent to inquire about his availability.  In fact, your team’s brass may be wondering right now if they need to fire their coach so they can make a run at Shanahan.  I’m also wondering if a college program may target Shanahan, although there aren’t many openings left there.  Don’t think I’m not trembling at the thought of Shanahan on the Browns sideline next season when Cleveland comes to Mile High.

– Frankly Shanahan has run out of people to blame.  He has run off countless defensive coordinators during his tenure, and has had three coordinators since 2005 alone (Larry Coyer, Jim Bates and Bob Slowik).  He also ran off the head of personnel, Ted Sunquist, before this season.  Ultimately, the team’s recent failure has to fall on Shanahan, especially considering the team’s tackling against San Diego was the worst I have seen in my 20 years plus of watching Broncos football since I was a kid.  

– I hope Pat Bowlen knows what he’s doing.  I struggle to name many coaches in the football world right now that would be an improvement over Shanahan.  Bill Cowher would be one of the few, but does he even want to return to coaching?  Is he the name that Bowlen has in mind?  Cowher has turned down the Browns job and is apparently interviewing with the Jets, but Denver would be far away from his family in North Carolina. Is Bowlen going to try to pry Bill Parcells away from Miami?  I would love it, but I can only see Parcells in a GM capacity right now, not as a coach.  Would either one of them even be interested in the Broncos?  I honestly can’t come up with another name that I would like.  Eric Mangini? Romeo Crennel?  Mike Martz?  No, no and hell no.  One name I would go for is Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson, but I doubt the Eagles would be dumb enough to let him get away.  Same with Steve Spagnuolo, defensive coordinator of the Giants.  Perhaps there is a young unknown out there that would be a good fit, I don’t know, but whoever they hire will stepping into enormous shoes, so they’d better be up to filling them.  

– Honestly, I’m still not sure how I really feel about this.  I really think I will need more time to see how I really feel about the Broncos dumping their long time coach.  A lot of it may ultimately have to do with who the replacement ends up being.  It comes as a complete shock, mainly because Shanahan has been the coach of the Broncos since I was in high school.  I thought up until two weeks ago that this was one of his best coaching jobs this year keeping the team together in light of too many injuries to count.  Ultimately though, the Broncos collapse from the AFC West lead to the 12th overall pick in the draft is too drastic to not hold someone accountable for it.  The Broncos were an 8-8 team this year, which is not going to cut it.  They are 24-24 over the past three seasons, and that won’t cut it.  It has been ten years since the Broncos won the Super Bowl, and while they have two more titles than many other franchises, ten years is a long time to not experience playoff success.  I just hope this doesn’t become a case of the Broncos not realizing what they had in the coaching department until it’s too late.  If Shanahan turns another franchise around and the Broncos continue to flounder, I will be sick.  If the Broncos do turn it around under someone else, than it will be lauded as a great move, even if Shanahan finds success elsewhere.  Only time will tell.

Wild Card playoff picks:

– Falcons over Cardinals: Neither team expected to be here.  I like Michael Turner and the Falcons running game to outscore the Cards’ high powered passing game.  

– Colts over Chargers: Two of the league’s hottest teams collide. Peyton Manning outduels Philip Rivers.

– Ravens over Dolphins: Baltimore won handily during the season.  Chad Pennington will play better this time, but I like the odds of Baltimore’s defense enjoying success in the playoffs.

– Vikings over Eagles: Minnesota has not won a playoff game in a long time.  The Metrodome will be rocking, and Adrian Peterson will have a big day.

Last Week: 13-3 (.812) Regular Season Final Record: 160-96-1 (.622)

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Week Seventeen Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on December 27, 2008

Obviously last week was an embarrassing week for yours truly’s football picking ability.  We’ll just skip over that and move on to this week’s picks.  My apologies for the quickie nature of the picks this week. 

Last Week: 6-10 (.375)  Season: 147-93-1 (.609)

– Patriots over Bills:  New England needs the game, Buffalo doesn’t.  The wind wil be howling  so the running game will be key.  The Patriots are red hot and wind is not going to slow them down.  New England needs a win and some help to make the playoffs.  They win the AFC East if they beat Buffalo and the Jets beat Miami.  They need a win and Batlimore loss to Jacksonville to get a wild card, and that means they’re doomed to be the second 11-5 team to miss the playoffs in NFL history (1985 Broncos). 

– Dolphins over Jets:  This is a tough game to figure, but the Jets have been fading fast for a month.  The Jets do not in fact control their own destiny, and even with a win need either a New England loss to Buffalo (not happening) or a Baltimore loss to Jacksonville (not happening).  This means a Jets win would help New England, and somehow I don’t think that’s not going to be sufficient motivation for gang green knowing that their win only helps their rival make the playoffs.  Miami is certainly the league’s biggest surprise, and the number of close games they’ve had this year will help them here.  This would mean a Miami home playoff game one season after going 1-15.  The top five teams in the 2009 draft will have hope. 

– Ravens over Jaguars:  Jacksonville used what remaining energy they had trying to beat the Colts.  They have nothing to play for in this one, and Baltimore rolls easily for a win and clinches a wild card spot.  Look out for the Ravens in the playoffs.  This is the team no one wants to play.

– Bengals over Chiefs:  Ugh.  If you’re stuck with this game in the CBS early slot, you have my sympathy.  Whoever wins this game is so inept they can’t even lose correctly, and will only make their 2009 draft position worse with a victory here.   

– Steelers over Browns:  Pittsburgh is locked into the two seed and will likely rest some guys.  Romeo Crennel will be on the sideline for what is sure to be his final game as Browns coach.  It will be interesting to see if the bye will help the Steelers make a playoff run.   

– Texans over Bears:  Chicago has more to play for, but even with a win they still need a Vikings loss or a bunch of other help.  Houston has been really up and down but I have a feeling they’ll finish strong here.  The Bears are just too inconsitent on offense to keep up with the Texans if their offense is clicking. 

– Titans over Colts: Both teams are locked into their playoff positions (Tennessee the number one seed, Colts the five seed).  Both teams are likely to rest players and that makes this difficult to pick.  Strangely enough, I take Vince Young over Jim Sorgi. 

– Chargers over Broncos:  Winner gets the AFC West title.  Right now the Chargers have the momentum and the Broncos don’t.  Denver missed its best chance when they failed to beat Buffalo last week.  San Diego is out for revenge after Denver’s wild 39-38 win in week two.  I do think the Broncos will come out with intensity, but the Chargers are playing very well on offense and I don’t think Denver will be able to keep up without a running game (seven Denver running backs on IR now).   The one thing the Broncos may have going for them is Norv Turner on the  other sideline, but even his ineptitude will not be enough to cause the Chargers to lose this one.  I hope I’m wrong on this one because I hate to see the Broncos miss the playoffs three straight years, and I also think an 8-8 Chargers team in the playoffs would be a shame while an 11-5 Patriots team could be out. 

– Buccaneers over Raiders: Tampa Bay keeps its hopes alive with a win.  It is hard to imagine the Raiders coming out with any intensity on the road, and the Buccaneers should win this one comfortably.  The Buccaneers will then need an Eagles win over Dallas in the late game to get a wild card spot. 

– Cowboys over Eagles:  Dallas is team turmoil this season, and it seems like we can never know which chemistry mix will be on the field each week.  That being said, the Cowboys know they will miss the playoffs if they don’t win this game, and they also know they are lucky to still be controlling their own destiny after last week’s loss.  I also don’t trust the Eagles after their listless performance last week in Washington.  This will sound odd, but I think the Cowboys can make a serious run if they do manage to make the playoffs. 

– Vikings over Giants: Minnesota wins the NFC North with a win here, but they also get in with a Chicago loss.  The Giants have clinched home field in the playoffs, so at the very least they will sit Brandon Jacobs and probably will rest more guys in the second half.  This game means much, much more to Minnesota and that’s why I like the Vikings to bounce back and win this one at home. 

– 49ers over Redskins: Mike Singletary should have the interim tag removed from his title.  He has done a great job restoring effort in that organization.  Washington bounced back nicely last week against the Eagles, but that is too little too late.   I like the Niners at home in this one where both teams have nothing to play for. 

– Packers over Lions:  The Lions can’t have much realistic hope of getting a road win at Lambeau, even if the Packers have hit the skids themselves down the stretch.  If Detroit has any pride whatsoever, they can find a way to win this game, but if they had pride it would have showed up last week in their last home game against the Saints.  Say hello to 0-16 Lions fans. 

– Falcons over Rams: Atlanta can actually win the NFC South with a win and a Carolina loss.  Either way they’ve clinched a playoff spot, a phenominal achievement considering how awful they were last season.  They’ll roll in this one against the hapless Rams. 

– Panthers over Saints:  Carolina wins the division if they can hold off the Saints.  This is an important game for the Panthers because they could fall to the five seed if they lose, whereas with a win they clinch a first round bye.  New Orelans poses a very tough challenge at home, where the Saints have not had any problem scoring points all season.  I think the Panthers will somehow find a way in this one, knowing the difficult road they face if they fail to win this one. 

– Cardinals over Seahawks: Arizona has clinched the NFC West, but they definitely aren’t playing like they deserve it.  Arizona was a complete embarassment last week in New England, and whoever gets the five seed in the NFC will probably be favored in Phoenix next weekend in the playoffs.  I think the Cardinals need to get their offense back on track and get some confidence in a big way this weekend or they are guaranteed toast next weekend.  The Seahawks got a win last week, but have nothing to play for here, and if Arizona plays to their true capaibility shouldn’t provide much resistance. 

So if my picks are right, here is how the first round of the playoffs would shape up:

AFC:   

BYE: Tennessee, Pittsburgh

(6) Baltimore at (3) Miami

(5) Indianapolis at (4) San Diego

NFC:

BYE: New York Giants, Carolina

(6) Dallas at (3) Minnesota

(5) Atlanta at (4) Arizona

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This CAN’T Be Happening

Posted by mizzou1028 on December 22, 2008

Where do I start with this one?  Seriously?  How did the Broncos lose yet another home game to an inferior opponent?  The Bills had nothing to play for, and yet they showed more urgency and made more plays when it counted than the Broncos did.  The Broncos had every opportunity to bury the Bills early, yet somehow the Bills were able to hang around, and hang around some more, eventually take the lead, and never relinquish it.  Thanks to San Diego’s win at Tampa Bay, the Broncos are now in a position where they must win at San Diego next Sunday night to clinch the AFC West and make the playoffs (more on that game in a moment).  I watched the entire game, and I am still in many ways at a loss to explain just how the Broncos managed to lose this game considering the following:

– The Broncos outgained Buffalo 532-275, nearly a 2 to 1 advantage

– The Broncos held Buffalo to just 87 yards rushing, and a 3.3 yards per carry average

– Eddie Royal raced for a 71-yard run in the first quarter, the second longest run by a non-running back in Broncos history

– Champ Bailey returned and sparked the Broncos defense with 9 tackles and an early sack and forced fumble

– Denver controlled time of possession, winning that battle 33:11 to 26:49

– Brandon Marshall finally stepped up with another big game, hauling in 10 passes for 129 yards

Those things considered, here is how the Broncos managed to lose this game:

– Red zone inefficiency.  Denver went just 2 for 6 in the red zone (two field goals, an interception and a turnover on downs).  This is simply not acceptable.  Denver settled for two field goals early, and even though they had a 13-0 lead, it easily could have been 21-0, and at the very least should have been 17-0.  That would have made a big difference not only in the score but also in terms of momentum.  The interception thrown by Jay Cutler at the Buffalo two with just over five minutes to play was very costly.  On the next drive, Cutler overthrew a wide open Brandon Stokley on third down, and then on fourth down, Stokley had the pass for a moment, only to see it get knocked out of his hands by Terrence McGee.  All told, the Broncos drove to the Bills’ 15 yard line twice in the last five minutes and came up with no points.  This will not win you any games.

– It is a broken record, but the Broncos lost the turnover battle 2-0.  Even though the Bills cashed those turnovers in for just three points, they still proved costly.

– The coaches made a questionable decision with two minutes to go in the first half.  They allowed Matt Prater to try a 54-yard field goal instead of punting and burying the Bills deep.  The wind was not ideal for a long field goal, and Prater missed the kick short even though it was on line.  The Bills got the ball at their own 44, and were able to drive for a momentum changing (and crowd silencing) touchdown right before halftime.  This was a questionable coaching decision to allow Prater to try the kick.

– The Broncos running game took yet another hit with the first quarter injury to P.J. Pope, who ran for 44 yards on just six carries before exiting.  Tatum Bell and Selvin Young only combined for 36 yards on the ground the rest of the way.  

– Special teams.  Granted, Leodis McKelvin is one of the top kick returners in the league.  His mere presence forced the Broncos to take drastic measures to kick away from him.  That being said, too many times Denver allowed Buffalo outstanding field position on kick returns and a short field to work with.  When your defense is struggling as much as the Broncos defense has, you can’t expect them to come up with stops when the opposing team is starting on the wrong side of midfield.

– Give the Bills credit.  Even though they came in with nothing to play for, and could have easily rolled over when they fell behind early, they stayed in the game and ended up winning at the end.  

The bottom line for the Broncos is they are an 8-7 team, and have not looked playoff worthy the last two weeks.  Good teams win easily in December at home against non-contending teams.  The Broncos for the past few years have not been able to do this, hence they keep missing the playoffs.  Denver had every chance to bury the Bills early, but settled for field goals when they needed touchdowns.  They gave Buffalo life at the end of the first half, and found themselves in a dogfight when they should clearly have been the team with more to play for.  Buffalo is a team that had lost  8 of its past 10 games, for all intents and purposes had collapsed.  The Broncos loss to Buffalo does not bode well for their playoff prospects even if they somehow upset the Chargers next week.

Here’s all you need to know about the Broncos’ suddenly very bleak postseason prospects: the early Las Vegas line has the Chargers favored to win by nine points next week.  The game in San Diego is needless to say a tall order for the Broncos.  They will be on the road, on Sunday night to boot (NBC grabbed that game as soon as the Broncos lost).  The Chargers will be out for blood after the Broncos’ crazy 39-38 win win week two.  San Diego feels they got robbed by Ed Hochuli.  I maintain the Chargers still had chances to come up with a stop and didn’t on either the touchdown or two point conversion, but that’s beside the point.  This NFL season has so wild and crazy though, especially for the Broncos.  It’s a season where teams win games they’re not supposed to and choke games away they’re supposed to win easily.  In any case, the Broncos’ first playoff game is on Sunday.  The winner wins the AFC West and the loser is out.  The Broncos quickly need to figure out how to avoid turnovers, how to take advantage of red zone opportunities while now down to their 8th option at running back (the backfield is so depleted that Tony Scheffler was forced to line up at fullback in the second half), and somehow figure out how to stop a suddenly red hot Philip Rivers.  I hope the Broncos can figure out a way to win and make the playoffs, but the realistic side of me doesn’t see the Broncos having much of a shot on the road against a suddenly hot team unless they start playing much better.  Things look bleak for the Broncos indeed.  Then again, this is the NFL, and that means predictions are worthless.  I hope.

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Week Sixteen Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on December 20, 2008

I was almost right last night.  The Jaguars gave the Colts a much better game than most thought they would.  David Garrard played extremely well for three quarters.  Maurice Jones-Drew ran hard.  The Jaguars played with emotion.  In the end though it wasn’t enough.  Garrard made a dumb decision throwing into triple coverage in the fourth quarter, and it resulting in a game winning pick six for the Colts.  Jacksonville had an impressive drive in the final two minutes, but Garrard missed a wide open Reggie Williams in the back of the end zone, and then suffered a sack on the game’s final play.  Jacks0nville played hard, but in the end the Colts showed why they are a playoff team and Jacksonville is not. 

N0w on to the picks, keeping in mind that there are several games where honestly I have no clue how they are going to go. 

Last Week: 11-5 (.687 )  Season: 141-82-1 (.632 )    Season record includes last night’s incorrect pick

– Ravens over Cowboys:  A rare Saturday night game, and this will be a good one.  In many ways this could be a play-in game for the playoffs.  If Baltimore’s loses they could fall behind New England and Miami.  If Dallas loses they fall behind Tampa Bay and possibly Atlanta.  This will be the final game at Texas Stadium, unless the Cowboys were to somehow host the NFC Championship Game in a series of highly unlikely occurances.  Tony Romo is hurting again for Dallas.  So is Marion Barber.  The Baltimore defense is not a team you want to be playing when you’ve got guys hobbled.  The Ravens offense got stymied last week, so this could be another low scoring game.  Dallas needs Terrell Owens to back up his words and come out with a big game.  If he doesn’t the Ravens will be in complete control.  If he does, the Cowboys have a chance.  The Ravens know they control their own destiny.  So do the Cowboys.  This game really could go either way, and the Cowboys will have the emotion of the last game at Texas Stadium, but Baltimore has frankly been more consistent this year, and I think the Ravens are way too good to miss the playoffs.  Baltimore wins. 

– Broncos over Bills:  Try number two for the Broncos to clinch the AFC West.  They host a Bills team with nothing to play for, so this is will be a much better opportunity than a game in San Diego next week.  Denver can’t afford to dig itself a hole early with turnovers, but if the Broncos come out and play they way they are capable, they should be able to hold off the Bills.  I’ll take Jay Cutler over Trent Edwards or J.P. Losman any day.  Edwards will apparently start, but he wasn’t effective before the injury, let alone now.   You can say what you will about the Broncos’ inconsitencies, but a hunch says they will come out firing and if all goes well they should put the Bills away early.   Odd stat of the matchup: 14 of the past 17 meetings have been in Buffalo.  The Broncos don’t get to host Buffalo very much, and I know that means nothing in regrards to Sunday’s game, but it is just interesting.  At any rate, Denver wins the AFC West. 

– Dolphins over Chiefs:  How the Chiefs managed to lose last week is still beyond me.  For any team to blow a 21-3 fourth quarter lead, and then a 21-10 lead in the final 75 seconds, is inexcusable in the NFL.  This makes it impossible for me to pick Kansas City in any scenerio.  Miami has a lot more to play for.  They must win this game to have any shot at the playoffs, and they know that.  Arrowhead will not be anywhere near full, and that will mitigate any advantage Kansas City would have.  Miami wins. 

– Patriots over Cardinals:  It seems so odd to think that New England can continue to roll in games and not end up in the playoffs, but that is what is likely to happen.  The Patriots will be rooting hard for the Cowboys to win on Saturday, because the Patriots only shot to get in is a Ravens loss.  I think the Patriots will not just win this game, but they will blow Arizona out.  The Cardinals will not have Anquan Boldin, they’ll be playing in the cold, they face the west coast team traveling east for an early kick disadvantage, and they are playing a desperate New England team that knows they have to keep winning.  Arizona has clinched the NFC West and knows they are the four seed, so they really have nothing to play for here.  The Patriots win, and will be rooting for Dallas on Saturday night. 

– Seahawks over Jets: UPSET ALERT.  I know this looks crazy, but consider this: the Jets are 0-3 on the west coast this year.  They got bombed in San Diego and lost two inexcusable games to San Francisco and Oakland.  This will be Mike Holmgren’s final home game as Seahawks coach, and I think the players will play hard for him.  I could really see the Jets being complacent heading into this game.  I know Brett Favre is the type of veteran leader that can prevent that, but I sense something out of the ordinary going on in this game.  It’s a reach, but I think Seattle wins. 

– Bengals over Browns:  Dud game of the year without question.  If you live in Ohio, I suggest you find a sports bar because you’re being shut out of just about every good game on Sunday to watch this garbage.  I don’t know who will win and I’m sure any0ne in Ohio cares either at this point.  I pick the Bengals for no reason other than Cleveland has not scored an offensive touchdown in a month, and I figure the Bengals ought to be able to get one with either T.J. Houshmanzadeh or Chad Johnson. 

– Steelers over Titans: Fantastic game, one I won’t be able to see because CBS only has one game this week, and of course I’ll be watching my Broncos.  The winner of this game will get home field advantage in the AFC, and I think Tennessee is picking a really bad time to go into a funk.  The Titans will be without top defensive linemen Kyle Vanden Bosch and Albert Haynesworth, and that means Pittsburgh will be able to run the football.  The Steelers have sustained a brutal schedule, and they have proven time and again this year they can win on the road.  Tennessee has frankly yet to prove it can score points in truly major games to win.  I think the rest of the AFC is about to get the bad news that the road to the Super Bowl will go through Pittsburgh.  Steelers win a close one, yet again on the road. 

– Texans over Raiders: Houston will be a dangerous team next season.  The Texans appear to have finally found their groove offensively, and they have the talent on defense to do some good things next year. It’s too bad the Texans don’t have five more games to get back in the chase because they might be the hottest team in the AFC besides Pittsburgh.   Andre Johnson is a clear top three wideout in the NFL, and he has benefited from Matt Schaub’s return.  Oakland should be nothing more than a doormat for them in this game.  Houston wins easily. 

– Buccaneers over Chargers: Both teams must win to stay alive, so we can look at this as another play-in game of sorts.  Tampa Bay has lost two straight, but knows they have two very winnable home games to finish up.  San Diego must win and needs Denver to lose to force a big game next week.  The Chargers have played much better of late, but they needed some serious Kansas City ineptitude to win last week.  The Buccaneers get Jeff Garcia back under center, and I think they will get a big lift from the home crowd.  Philip Rivers will keep San Diego in the game, but I think the Bucs’ defense is ready for a shutdown effort after getting run over in the running game the past two weeks.  Tampa Bay let one get away last week, and they know they won’t have another chance if they lose this one.  Tampa Bay wins. 

– Eagles over Redskins: This is an interesting game.  The Eagles are another team that is red hot, but even if they win out they may not get in the playoffs.  Brian Westbrook is healthy once again and that means bad news for Eagles opponents down the stretch.  Washington has faded so quickly that Jim Zorn’s job is apparently now in jeopardy, even though three weeks ago he was being hailed as the right guy  in Washington.  The Clinton Portis-Jim Zorn fight seems like it’s adversely affected the Redskins, and it showed in their loss to Cincinnati last week.  Philadelphia wins to keep their hopes alive. 

– Lions over Saints: UPSET ALERT.  I pick for no other reason than there has never been an 0-16 team in NFL history.  I don’t see any reason why that should happen this year.  The Saints lost Reggie Bush for the year, and that hurts their offense.  Detroit is highly motivated, they will win this game at home. 

– Vikings over Falcons: Another good game.  Minnesota has all but clinched the NFC North, and the Falcons need to win to stay alive.  While this game may mean more on paper to Atlanta, I think Minnesota wins this one at home.  Tarvaris Jackson gets another start, and if he plays as well as last week, the Vikings offense could be in for a big day.  Atlanta could play well again in this one, and is a great story this year, but this will be a tough road game for them to win, and I can’t see them pulling this one out. 

– 49ers over Rams: Meaningless game.  Niners are playing hard for Mike Singletary, and the Rams are not for Jim Haslett.  San Francisco wins this one, and it could be by a lot.  Let’s move on to a more meaningful game. 

– Panthers over Giants: Monster game, good move by NBC to move this to Sunday night.  The winner of this game will clinch home field in the NFC playoffs.  I think this game is actually very simple.  The Panthers are the best team in the league right now, and the Giants have lost two straight since the Plaxico Burress fiasco.  Carolina will be able to run the ball no problem.  The Giants may not be able to if Brandon Jacobs doesn’t play.  I also sense another big game from Steve Smith.  Carolina wins. 

– Bears over Packers: The Monday nighter has lost a lot of its luster with the Packers eliminated and the Bears on life support.  If the Vikings win, the Bears are essentially out.  This could be entertaining because of the rivalry factor, but will likely mean nothing.  Green Bay has really fallen off the wagon last few games.  Chicago wins.

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Thursday Night Football Pick – Week 16

Posted by mizzou1028 on December 18, 2008

It’s quickly getting into crunch time.  As we start the second to last week of the season, we find a very intriguing matchup on Thursday night.  The Colts are the hottest team in football, having not lost since late October.  Peyton Manning has been playing much better over the past month or so, the passing game is clicking, the running game is going even with Joseph Addai hobbled, and the defense has been much improved with Bob Sanders back from injury at safety (sound familar?  His return sparked the Colts to their Super Bowl win two years ago).   They figure on paper to be a heavy favorite over the hapless Jaguars, even on the road.  Jacksonville has to qualify as the unquestioned biggest disappointment in the league this season.  After their 12-4 finish last year, playoff win at Pittsburgh, and great effort the next week at New England, I thought they were going to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.  This easily qualifies as the most embarrassing preseason pick I have ever made.  Little did I know their offensive line would be a mess, the running game wouldn’t be anywhere near the same, and their dominant defense would suddenly show characteristics resembling an instruction manual on how not to tackle.  

Before you conclude that the Colts will win by four touchdowns, decide this game is not worth watching, and let your wife or girlfriend watch a rerun of Grey’s Anatomy instead, let’s consider a few things here.  The Colts are somewhat injury riddled heading into this game.  Joseph Addai claims he will play, but reports seem to vary on this.  We know Addai participated in practice on Wednesday, but will he be able to go?  Will he be full speed?  We don’t know.  Dominic Rhodes filled in nicely last week, but that was against the Lions.  Even Jacksonville is not that bad.  We also learned today that Marvin Harrison will sit out due to a hamstring injury.  Granted, Harrison has been invisible most of the season, but he’s still Marvin Harrison.  If he’s not in there, it will allow the Jags to focus more on Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark.  The effect of these two injuries together is significant.  If the Colts can’t run the ball with Rhodes, it will play to Jacksonville’s advantage.  Harrison also not being in there means there aren’t as many receivers for Jacksonville to worry about covering.  Oh, and Bob Sanders is also questionable.  When he’s not in there, that’s bad news for Indy.  Which leads me to……

The previous meeting in week three.  Bob Sanders did not play.  This is one of the few games in which Jacksonville ran the ball well (and very well I might add) to the tune of 236 yards.  Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew each went over 100 yards, and Jones-Drew also added 59 yards receiving on four catches.  Sanders is one of the league’s best run stuffing safeties, and his presence makes all the difference in the Colts’ run defense.  Even if he’s in there but not 100 percent, his presence is a big plus for Indianapolis.  Jacksonville’s defense also had great success against Manning in the first meeting, intercepting him two times, including a 61-yard pick six by Rasheen Mathis.  

This is a division game.  The seemingly left for dead Jaguars rose up and stunned the Packers last week, and Jones-Drew ran well.  The Colts survived a much closer than hoped for win over the winless Lions.  Momentum means a lot in football, and it seems like the Colts are battling several injuries on a short week, not wanting to push guys if it means their playoff availability could be in question.  The Colts have a one game lead over every other wild card contender, so they know they are in good shape.  Even if they haven’t officially clinched yet, they are right on the cusp.  Jacksonville is playing for pride.  This is not a factor to be underestimated.  Many teams over the years, teams with nothing to play for can get highly motivated by bumping off a division rival late in the year and messing with their playoff hopes.  

Indianapolis is clearly the better team overall.  Everyone knows this.  Yet there is a reason why they play the games.  Last week I split my two biggest upset reaches (getting Houston over Tennessee and missing Kansas City over San Diego, but it was close).  I thought Dallas over the Giants was an upset pick at the time, but at best that can be only called a minor upset.  At any rate, this is a game that is not easy to pick, and that makes it worth watching.  I am convinced it will not be a blowout in any way, now the question is, who wins?  Do I dare go for another upset reach?

Thinking….

Thinking….

Why not, UPSET ALERT.  Call me crazy, call it a hunch.  Jacksonville 30 Indianapolis 27.  The Titans may still be leading the division, but something tells me the Jags will be highly motivated for a chance to sweep the Colts.  

Either that or I will have to write another embarrassing retraction on Friday morning.

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