Reid Fischer's World of Rants

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Week Seven Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on October 17, 2008

Before we get to the NFL picks this week, I have to admit that I didn’t watch the entire ALCS game last night between the Rays and Red Sox.  I turned the game off when the Rays entered the bottom of the seventh inning with a 7-0 lead and Scott Kazmir pitching a shutout.  Imagine my surprise when, a little while later, I flipped back expecting to see postgame reaction of the Rays victory, only to find the game had only progressed to the 8th with Tampa clinging to a 7-6 lead.  “NO! What the hell happened?”, I screamed to the room at large.  If you haven’t already guessed I am rooting for the Rays for several reasons, not the least of which is a refusal to root for the team that swept my Rockies in the World Series last year, but it also has a lot to do with rooting for the underdog.  Watching the rest of the game was exactly like watching a train wreck.  The Rays gave up the tying hit on a Coco Crisp single in the 8th, then wasted an opportunity with two runners on in the top of the 9th, only to kick away the game on a throwing error by Evan Longoria and a walk-off single by J.D. Drew.  It would seem easy to blame the Rays bullpen for not holding the lead for Kazmir, but Boston does deserve credit.  Sure. David Ortiz had been in a slump, but he’s still David Ortiz, one of the best playoff clutch hitters in MLB history.  The Red Sox clearly got a tremendous lift from the Fenway Park crowd, most of whom stayed for the finish.  (Side note: How dumb would you have to be to leave ANY playoff game early?  Seriously, if you leave a playoff game early, you should receive an automatic lifetime ban from the stadium.  If you’re going to bail out, give your ticket to a real fan who cares!  Sometime I would very interested to hear from fans who leave these games early, to find out what exactly they were thinking).  The energy provided by the fans who stayed gave Boston all the momentum they needed, and to their credit they capitalized.  From a fan’s perspective it will no doubt go down as one of the great games in MLB playoff history, but did it completely turn the series around?

This is the type of loss that really has to be devastating for Tampa Bay, considering they allowed the biggest playoff comeback since 1929.  This is a Red Sox team that erased a 3 games to 1 deficit against Cleveland in the ALCS last year and came back from 3 games to 0 against the Yankees in 2004.  Boston does not know how to quit, and even though the series is headed back to Tampa, the Rays won’t be helped by the legions of Red Sox fans that will surely be able to elbow their way into Tropicana Field.  What Tampa does have going for them though is James Shields on the mound tomorrow night, going against Josh Beckett.  Shields has been dominant all year for the Rays and actually pitched very well even in defeat in game one, while Beckett got shelled in game two and is clearly not healthy.  The key for the Rays is they need to quickly forget about how close they got last night, and remember this simple fact: to make the World Series they need to win one of two at home this weekend, where they have been nothing less than stellar all season.  That doesn’t seem so bad for Tampa now does it?  The fact is the Red Sox will not die quietly, and obviously deserve a great deal of credit for their comeback win, and the question is, can the Rays kick it back up a notch? It should make for great baseball this weekend, and I guarantee I’m not the only one hoping Tampa Bay can get the job done and complete their Cinderella season.

Now on to the picks:

Last Week: 8-6 (.571)   Season: 53-35 (.602)

– Bills over Chargers: This should be a fantastic game.  The Chargers looked like the favorites they were expected to be in trashing the Patriots last week, while the Bills come off a bye and will get the benefit of Trent Edwards back in the lineup after he suffered a concussion against Arizona.  San Diego should keep it close for a majority of the game, but the Bills will be highly motivated to prove they aren’t a fluke.  The Buffalo crowd will be fired up for this one, and that combined with the early kickoff time will spell doom for San Diego.  It’s a script that never seems to fail in the NFL: west coast team playing on the east coast in an early kickoff (10 a.m. pacific) = win for the home team.  The Bills gain legitimacy with a huge win. 

– Dolphins over Ravens: Both teams are coming off losses, but the Dolphins have not only the home field edge, but also know that Joe Flacco has not played well on the road for Baltimore.  In fact, the Ravens’ offense has been practically non-existenton the road this year, while Miami’s defense has played very well at home.  Miami continues to improve and is certainly one of the surprise teams in the league.  The Dolphins also continue to fool teams with their creative formations and plays, and they should be able to come with at least one play to surprise the Ravens’ defense and pull out a win in this low scoring affair.

– Jets over Raiders: It should not have come as a surprise to anyone that the Raiders’ coaching change had no impact, and likely made things a lot worse.  Oakland did nothing right in their loss to New Orleans, and even a return home to the Black Hole will not help.  The Jets are in the midst of an easy part of the schedule and have not wasted any time taking advantage.  Brett Favre has unequivicably proven he can still play at a very high level, and he seems like he’s getting more and more comfortable in the offense each week.  The Jets win what should end up being a yawner.

– Steelers over Bengals: How bad is it in Cincinnati right now?  This should give you a pretty good idea.  This means there could well be more terrible towels in the stands at Paul Brown Stadium Sunday then there will be Bengals fans.  The Bengals once again start Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, which gives them about a 0.10% chance to win against anyone, even at home.  Factor in Chad Johnson being unhappy as usual, and the fact that they’re playing the Steelers, and well, that chance goes down to about 0.00000000001%.  Pittsburgh has absolutely owned the Bengals for the past few years anyway, let alone when Cincinnati is a complete mess.  Even if Willie Parker can’t play, Pittsburgh should win this in their sleep.   

– Redskins over Browns: This one is certainly tricky after Cleveland’s spectacular effort on Monday night and the Redskins’ surprising loss to St. Louis.  This game will go a long way toward helping us find out a lot about both teams, as both really need the win to stay in their respective division races.  Clinton Portis should be able to continue running well for Washington, but the Browns also seem like they have finally found their offense again.  Perhaps Derek Anderson will continue to play well if he knows he’s not liable to be yanked for Brady Quinn at any time.  That being said, a hunch says that Jim Zorn and his staff will not allow Washington to drop two home games in a row, and for that reason I take the Redskins, but you might as well flip a coin here. 

– Texans over Lions: Houston finally picked up a win last week, and that should really give the Texans confidence heading into this one.  Houston is in the midst of something you never, ever see in the NFL: they are entering game three of a four game homestand, and five of six at Reliant Stadium.  This came about because of rescheduling needs due to Hurricane Ike, but with the remaining home games all winnable (the Bengals and Ravens remain on the home stretch), Houston seems likely to make a big, big move in the AFC.  Even though Houston started 0-4, and even if that proves to be too much to overcome, the Texans will be a major player in the AFC race.  As for Detroit?  This play says it all.  The countdown to next year has already begun.

– Colts over Packers: The unquestioned game of the week.  Indianapolis finally looked like themselves last week, and there was even a Marvin Harrison sighting!  Green Bay slugged their way to road win in Seattle, and will obviously benefit from a return to Lambeau Field.  The Packers have played reasonably well considering the slew of injuries they’ve been dealing with, and it stands to reason that Ryan Grant should be able to gain 100 yards against a defense that has had trouble stopping the run without Bob Sanders.  This seems to be the consensus anyway even though the Colts completely shut down Baltimore’s running game last week.  Still, a great game like this often comes down to the quarterbacks, and I’ll take a (now healthy) Peyton Manning over Aaron Rodgers 100 percent of the time.  The Colts have debunked the myth for several years now that they can’t win away from the Dome, and they get an important road win here to get back on track. 

– Titans over Chiefs: It seems as though Days of Our Lives has made its stop in Kansas City this week.  Tony Gonzalez remains with the team after they refused to honor his trade request, and Larry Johnson will not suit up for the Chiefs because he violated team rules this week.  Kansas City playing one of the best defenses in the league without any threat of a running game?  Case closed, the only question here is how much the Titans will win by.  Besides, Johnson rushed for only two yards on seven carries last week against the Panthers, so is Kansas City really missing anything anyway?  Then again, every time I say the game is a guaranteed blowout we have an upset or near upset (see the Minnesota-Detroit game last week, which the Vikings barely won).  You could make the case that Kansas City will benefit from the Arrowhead crowd, but really, do you see the Titans imploding here following a bye week? I sure don’t.

– Rams over Cowboys: MAJOR UPSET ALERT.  The Cowboys have struggled for three weeks now, getting a win only because they got the gift of a home game against the Bungles.  Dallas does not know who will start at quarterback.  Will it be Tony Romo with a broken pinkie finger, or Brad Johnson?  How will new receiver Roy Williams fit in?  His presence should make it interesting to see how Mount TO will be affected.  The Dallas secondary is also in shambles, as they will be without Pacman Jones and Terrence Newman.  I sense a huge passing day for Marc Bulger and Torry Holt, who is waiting to break out after a really slow start.  How quickly the mighty have fallen, I have a hunch that St. Louis wins this at home, being that they’re playing much harder for new coach Jim Haslett.

– Giants over 49ers.  This is not a good week for San Francisco to be making the trip east.  The same thought from the San Diego-Buffalo game about a west coast team and an early east coast kick also applies here, but a larger factor is the Niners will be facing a really angry Giants team.  The defending champs know they laid an egg in Cleveland, and they’ll be out for blood on Sunday.  The 49ers have shown some spunk offensively, mainly thanks to Frank Gore, who should really be getting the ball more, but their defense won’t have any answer for a motivated Eli Manning and company.  The Giants also know they enter the really tough part of their schedule and need to win this game.  This should be another blowout in the Meadowlands.

– Bears over Vikings: Both teams are 3-3, and both have been really up and down in the early part of the year.  This should be a really tight, low scoring, defensive game, which gives the Bears an edge, especially at Soldier Field.  Kyle Orton has actually been playing pretty well for the Bears, and I actually give him a slight edge over Gus Frerotte in the quarterback battle.  The deciding factor could very well be turnovers, and both defenses are capable of forcing mistakes from the other team.  I go with Chicago primarily because they’re playing at home, and I would probably take the Vikings if the game were in the Metrodome.  The winner of this game will have at least a share of the lead in the NFC North. 

– Panthers over Saints: This should be a very entertaining game in the NFC South.  Carolina will be highly motivated after getting blown out last week, while the Saints are on a roll coming off a blowout win.  Both offenses are capable of lighting it up, with Reggie Bush and Steve Smith usually stealing the show for their respective teams.  New Orleans should get star receiver Marques Colston back, which will clearly help their offense.  Carolina will be looking for a better effort from their running back duo of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, plus they hope Mushin Muhammad will be healthy enough to play.  The difference in this game is likely to be Carolina’s motivation factor playing at home, and Smith should be able to outshine Bush, but not by much.  Carolina wins a squeaker. 

– Buccaneers over Seahawks.  This game could very well be second fiddle in the central Florida area if the Red Sox and Rays are playing game seven at Tropicana Field Sunday night.  If that’s the case, it will be interesting to see what kind of crowd is on hand for Sunday Night Football at the pirate ship.  Tampa Bay in any case should have little trouble winning easily, with a defense that is suffocating as always under defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin.  Seattle continues its musical chairs at quarterback with Seneca Wallace likely to get the nod after Charlie Frye struggled last week and Matt Hasselbeck still at least a week away from returning.  Lots of quarterbacks is never a good thing, and the Bucs defense is licking its chops in excitement.  The fact that Jeff Garcia is healthy and playing well again can’t hurt either.  If there is an ALCS game seven, Tampa sports fans at least shouldn’t have to worry about the football game after the first quarter.  Tampa Bay by at least three touchdowns in this one.

– Broncos over Patriots: The Monday night game this week is a really good matchup of two teams coming off a loss.  Denver should get some reinforcements with the return of Eddie Royal and likely Tony Scheffler, although Brandon Stokley is questionable with a concussion.  The Broncos defense has struggled against the run, but the Patriots have really struggled to run the ball in recent weeks.  Going with one of the weekend themes of looking at quarterback play, how can anyone possibly go with Matt Cassel over Jay Cutler?  Partially on that note, the Brandon Marshall has a better chance for a big game than Randy Moss because Moss will be matched against Champ Bailey.  The deciding factor here is actually history: the Broncos are the only team in the NFL with a winning record against the Patriots since 2000.  Denver has actually won five of its past six games against New England, including three in a row.  Mike Shanahan is 8-3 against the Patriots and Bill Belichick is just 2-9 against Denver.  So even in the height of the Patriots’ dynasty, they still always struggled against Shanahan.  Now that New England is clearly down without Tom Brady?  The Broncos get a much needed win entering the bye week. 

BYE: Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Arizona

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That’s Why They Play the Game!

Posted by mizzou1028 on October 14, 2008

– Giants over Browns: This has mismatch written all over it.  The Giants are without question the best team in football through the first month, and they will be heavily favored in this one.  It’s a weekly theme, but the Giants continue to prove wrong all the so-called “experts” who picked them to miss the playoffs.  How on Earth could anyone have predicted them to miss the playoffs after taking a look at their soft early schedule?  Even without Plaxico Burress last week, they didn’t skip a beat at all as they destroyed Seattle.  Cleveland for whatever reason has yet to bench Derek Anderson in favor of Brady Quinn, even though the Browns only have a win this year because the Bengals gave it to them.  I hate to say I told you so, but the Browns are not a contender in any way, and continue to prove they were a big time fluke last year.  Think the Monday Night Football crew regrets selecting so many Browns games yet?

Ummm…yeah, so I clearly misfired on that one.  I promised at the beginning of the season I would be the first to admit my prediction errors, and here you go, that was a big one.  In my defense I wasn’t by any means the only one.  Eight of the nine pickers on espn.com picked the Giants.  (On the flip side, I did correctly predict Arizona’s win over the Cowboys, but that’s not the topic here).  It certainly seemed going in that the Giants had the best team in football by far, while the Browns had clearly struggled coming into the contest.  Sure, the Browns had the bye week to regroup and were playing in front of an enthusiastic home crowd, but the Giants had won 12 straight games away from Giants Stadium dating back to September of last year, including their miraculous playoff run, so it wasn’t like the crowd was going to adversely affect them.  I certainly did not expect Derek Anderson to save his job, which he did with a 301 yard, two touchdown effort.  I absolutely didn’t expect a breakout game from Braylon Edwards, who had been notably absent the first four games of the season for the Browns.  Most of all, I didn’t expect the Giants to implode the way they did.  Eli Manning in particular was not the same last night as he was early in the year, throwing several crucial picks at inopportune times. 

So what does all that mean in the grand scheme of things in the NFL?  For starters, it’s only one game so it’s difficult to ascertain whether that was one egg laid by the Giants or whether there is a larger concern for the defending champs.  Likewise, are the Browns back among the contenders, or did they just have everything going well for one night?  It’s the same theme every week but it bears worth repeating: the NFL season is such a roller coaster that things really do vary radically from week to week, making it difficult to predict the games, which in turn is what makes the league so great.  Who expected the Rams to beat Washington Sunday?  Sure, I said a Rams win wouldn’t be surprising, but I didn’t actually go out on a limb and pick them.  Did anyone really expect the Vikings to struggle in any way against Detroit, and would need a last second field goal to win?  How about the Falcons?  Show me anyone that thought they would start the year 4-2, and I’ll give you the oceanfront property I own in Wyoming for free, no questions asked. 

How about the games coming up this weekend? Cowboys-Rams looked like a guaranteed Dallas blowout victory a month ago, even two weeks ago.  Now?  The Cowboys are without Tony Romo (broken finger on his throwing hand), Pacman Jones (suspension), Terence Newman (sports hernia), and Felix Jones (hamstring).  Besides all the injuries, the Cowboys have lost two of three, and very nearly all three if not for a sloppy win against the winless Bengals.  Terrell Owens has been essentially shut down for three straight games, tallying just four catches for 36 yards in the loss to Arizona, and now will undoubtedly be petulant when he’s not getting downfield looks from Brad Johnson over the next month.  The Rams meanwhile are coming off a win and will be coming back home.  Granted, despite all that Dallas is still favored to win the game, but is it a gimmie in any way?  Absolutely not.

It will be needless to say interesting to see how things really do shake out at the end of the season.  I still think teams like the Jaguars, Chargers and Colts that are hovering around .500 will be major players in the AFC.  It will be interesting to see if Buffalo and Tennessee can keep up their fast starts in the AFC, or if Atlanta and Arizona can stay in the chase in the NFC.  Will the Cowboys fold? Are the Redskins for real?  What about the Broncos, will they be able to hold off San Diego?  Who are the real Patriots, will they end up being in the mix, or is their dynasty derailed for the time being?  Who will win the NFC North, where three teams currently sit 3-3?  For that matter, who will come out of the NFC South logjam, where every team is .500 or better?  The point is everything is up in the air, and that will ultimately make mine or anyone else’s predictions look like garbage at the end of the year.  The fact is it is most likely no one will end up being completely correct or close to it.  Even the winless Bengals and Lions are likely to shock somebody at some point, for there has NEVER BEEN an 0-16 team in NFL history.  So while I may have looked foolish with my pregame assessment of the Giants-Browns game, at least I still went over .500 for the week, which means i did better than 5 of the ESPN experts for the week.  Considering the state of the NFL these days, that doesn’t seem to be too bad at all.  Besides, if I really could pick the games that well, I wouldn’t be bothering to write about them here, and I would be enjoying my weekly fortune from Vegas.  Until I get that patent for the time machine approved, the teams of the NFL will just keep proving me and everyone else who doubts them wrong.

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Week Six Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on October 10, 2008

Before we get to the NFL picks for the week, I have to say I am almost more excited about the Saturday slate of college action this weekend than I am about the NFL games.  On Saturday you have Oklahoma-Texas, a game that is WAY more important than that overhyped Ohio State-USC game from a few weeks ago.  OU-Texas might well end up being the game of the year, as both teams have dominated so far this year.  You also have LSU-Florida in Gainesville, which will no doubt be a critical game in the SEC.  My Missouri Tigers will continue to try to put up 50 points each week against Oklahoma State, which has also been averaging 50 points a game this year, so that game should be a very entertaining wild shootout.  I also want to keep an eye on another high powered offense in Texas Tech.  Will they put 70 points up on Nebraska?  The mixture of college and pro action, plus the baseball playoffs and the start of NHL make this a wonderful time on the sports calendar for sure.  Now, on to the NFL picks. 

Last Week: 7-7 (.500)  Season: 45-29 (.608)

– Dolphins over Texans: Miami has defeated the two AFC Championship Game participants from last year, which is no small feat even if the Patriots and Chargers may not be as good as last year’s versions.  Ronnie Brown seems fully recovered from last year’s ACL injury and that is bad news for opponents.  Houston is coming off quite possibly its worst loss in franchise history, losing s 27-10 lead with 4;40 to play last week against the Colts.  Matt Schaub is back at QB for the Texans, but there is simply no immediate recovery from that kind of debacle.  Miami keeps the momentum going on the road.

– Jets over Bengals: New York is coming off a bye, which means Brett Favre had a chance to further get comfortable with the offense.  The Jets are still very much within striking distance in the AFC East, and they know they need to take care of business at home.  Cincinnati has played to its competition thus far this year, which could make this a much closer game than it may appear on paper.  The Bengals have talent despite being 0-5 so the Jets need to be careful, but a hunch New York wins at home, even if its not by a wide margin.

– Colts over Ravens: Logic says i should go with Baltimore.  Their defense is playing great, and they should be able to run the ball against a Colts defense that hasn’t been able to stop the run this year.  Then again, I have to think the Colts gained quite a bit of momentum with their wild comeback win in Houston.  Peyton Manning is still Peyton Manning, and he has always owned Baltimore even in the heyday of the Ravens defense.  Marvin Harrison can’t possibly continue to be invisible can he?  Even if he is in this game, the Colts still have Reggie Wayne.  Indianapolis finally gets its first win at new Lucas Oil Stadium.

– Broncos over Jaguars: This should be a tight low scoring game, much like the Broncos-Bucs game last week.  Jacksonville held the ball over 40 minutes in last year’s meeting, so expect the Jags to run, run, run again.  The Broncos did do much better against the run last week, while the Jags have struggled to run it in every game this year except against the Colts.  Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combined to only rush for 30 yards last week against Pittsburgh, so the Broncos have a chance to continue improvement against the run if they stay disciplined.  Denver will be without tight end Tony Scheffler, so the Broncos will need a big game from Brandon Marshall.  It says here that’s a given after he was shut down last week.  Denver has just enough offense to win this one.

– Saints over Raiders: New Orleans gave one away last week against the Vikings.  The Saints know they have more talent than their 2-3 record indicates, and they may only need to wait one more week before the return of star receiver Marques Colston from a thumb injury.  The Raiders are coming off a bye, and of course their soap opera press conference and firing of Lane Kiffin.  As messed up as the Raiders organization is, a coaching change is not going to help them win this one.  After this one the Saints do not return to the Superdome until Nov. 24, due to a “home” game in London against San Diego at the end of the month.  The Saints know they must get this one, and they will.

– Cardinals over Cowboys: Major upset alert.  The Cowboys have struggled the last two weeks, and if they were playing virtually anyone other than the Bengals they wouldn’t have won last week.  Dallas also has an added distraction this week of more off-field trouble for Pacman Jones which can’t help.  Arizona meanwhile, has shown they have one of the top passing games in the league, and their defense got a huge boost last week with the return of hard hitting safety Adrian Wilson.  The Cardinals have won 8 of their last 10 at home, and it’s not all opposing team fans in the stands anymore.  Arizona wins in a shootout.

– Eagles over 49ers: Philadelphia is also much more talented then their 2-3 record indicates.  The Eagles are coming off two tough losses and now have a road game against a team with potential to surprise.  If the Niners do get a consistent outing from J.T. O’Sullivan, an upset is not out of the question.  If he is erratic, the Eagles offense should be able to do enough to win.  Dononvan McNabb gets receiving threat Kevin Curtis back, which should also open up opportunities for DeSean Jackson.  Philadelphia knows it can’t afford many more slipups in the rugged NFC East.

– Redskins over Rams: Washington is arguably the league’s biggest surprise at 4-1.  The Redskins are coming off back-to-back division road wins against Dallas and Philly, and now have a couple of friendly home games coming up.  The Redskins do have a guard against a trap here though, with the Rams coming off a bye and a coaching change, plus the reinstatement of Marc Bulger at quarterback.  A Rams victory would not come as a complete shock just because of the bye and a chance to regroup, but it is impossible to give them the nod on the road when they haven’t shown anything at all this year.  Washington gets the home win.  

– Bears over Falcons: Atlanta at 3-2 is simply stunning.  Maybe I’m just slow to get on the bandwagon here, but I can’t see Matt Ryan having the success he’s had so far this year against Chicago’s defense.  The Bears defense makes life hell for any quarterback, let alone a rookie.  Then again, Matt Ryan did win at Lambeau last week, which is also rare for a rookie.  Still, if Kyle Orton plays as well as he did last week, the Bears should have enough to win this game.  Chicago can really take control of the NFC North in the early going if they pull off this road victory.  

– Vikings over Lions: Detroit is well in the running for the worst team in the league.  They are frantically trying to trade guys who don’t want to be there before the deadline. (Roy Williams anyone?) They are a complete mess on defense because they haven’t used any high draft picks on that side of the ball in years.  Minnesota is coming off a big road win that may have saved its season.  I really hope you’re not going against Adrian Peterson in your fantasy league this week, because he’s about to have a monster day.  The only question here is how much the Vikings win this game by.  

– Packers over Seahawks: This will be a very ugly game.  Seattle is so banged up on offense that Matt Hasselbeck will still start at quarterback despite not practicing all week due to a shoulder injury.  Half of the receivers are still out as well, and Seattle is coming off a 44-6 blowout loss to the Giants.  Green Bay has lost three in a row, and is also riddled with injuries, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  This is very clearly not Seattle’s year, and the Packers know they can stay in the NFC North race with a road win.  Green Bay wins the dud game of the week.  

– Panthers over Buccaneers: I expect a great game in this one.  Carolina is red hot, and will try to win on the road against a good Bucs defense that is always very tough at home.  I go with Carolina on a hunch because Jake Delhomme has always had good success in his career against Tampa Bay, and the dual receiving threat of Steve Smith and Mushin Muhammad is causing all kinds of trouble for defenses.  Tampa Bay goes back to Jeff Garcia at quarterback, but I don’t think the Bucs have enough offense to keep up.  Carolina wins.  

– Chargers over Patriots: San Diego will be highly motivated in the Sunday nighter for several reasons.  The Chargers have lost three in a row to New England, including two playoff games.  San Diego also is a desperate team at 2-3, and knows they can’t afford a loss at home being that they’re already facing a two game deficit in the AFC West.  The Chargers will also be out for blood after the allowed a winnable game to slip away in Miami.  The Patriots may be 3-1 yes, but they haven’t really proven they are completely their old selves after the Tom Brady injury.  The raucous home crowd under the lights is the sway factor as the Chargers notch the W.  

– Giants over Browns: This has mismatch written all over it.  The Giants are without question the best team in football through the first month, and they will be heavily favored in this one.  It’s a weekly theme, but the Giants continue to prove wrong all the so-called “experts” who picked them to miss the playoffs.  How on Earth could anyone have predicted them to miss the playoffs after taking a look at their soft early schedule?  Even without Plaxico Burress last week, they didn’t skip a beat at all as they destroyed Seattle.  Cleveland for whatever reason has yet to bench Derek Anderson in favor of Brady Quinn, even though the Browns only have a win this year because the Bengals gave it to them.  I hate to say I told you so, but the Browns are not a contender in any way, and continue to prove they were a big time fluke last year.  Think the Monday Night Football crew regrets selecting so many Browns games yet?

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Now the Road Gets Rockier….

Posted by mizzou1028 on October 7, 2008

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” –  George Santayana, The Life of Reason or The Phases of Human Progress: Reason in Common Sense 284

If you had told me before the start of the season that the Broncos would be 4-1 and would own a two game lead in the AFC West through five games, I would have first thought that you were crazy, but I also would have taken that in a heartbeat no questions asked.  Well here we are five games into the season, and the Broncos are possession of said two game lead in the division.  Granted, the one loss was an embrassing one to a bad Kansas City team, but the Broncos did bounce back with a terrific defensive effort against an underrated Tampa Bay team.  The Broncos finally got excellent pressure on the quarterback, first on Brian Griese and later on Jeff Garcia, and the defense gave a much better effort against the run.  Granted, that isn’t saying much after they got shredded by Larry Johnson, but the defense showed it is capable if need be of carrying the team on a day the offense may not be on its top game.  While this is all great, it is only a start, nothing more. 

The optimistic side of me is definitely excited about the 4-1 start.  Generally speaking, a good start can lead to a good finish.  The other side of me says that we’ve been down this road before, only to see the Broncos not finish the way they started.  Two years ago in 2006, the Broncos actually started 4-1, and later were 7-2, before finishing 9-7 and missing the playoffs.  In 2004, the Broncos started 5-1, ended up 10-6, and lost a wild card game to the Colts.  The year before in 2003, the Broncos started 5-1, finished 10-6, and lost a wild card game to the Colts. (No I did not accidently retype the sentence, ’03 and ’04 were identical in that regard in Bronco land.)  Or we could even take 2002, which saw the Broncos start 4-1, and later 6-2, and miss the playoffs with a 9-7 record.  The one recent exception was 2005, when the Broncos did successfully parlay a 5-1 start into a 13-3 record and an AFC Championship Game appearance.  The point is, yes the Broncos have gotten off to a good start, but that’s all it means.  It is important that the Broncos do not repeat their second half failures of this decade.  There is a lot of season to go, and the Broncos will need to keep playing at a high level to maintain their position in the AFC West.

One thing about the NFL is the outlook of any team can really vary radically from week to week.  It is also true that a team’s perceived strength of schedule can vary even more wildly from week to week.  Are you playing a team when they’re on fire?  Are you catching them while injury riddled?  Are you playing a team from the other conference in between two division games?  There are so many x factors in the NFL schedule that make it really difficult at best to determine exactly how hard or easy a team’s remaining schedule will be.  Right now though, it certainly looks like the Broncos’ schedule is about to get tougher.    The Broncos face Jacksonville at home on Sunday, a team that has traditionally given them trouble and will be desperate after last week’s loss to Pittsburgh.  Then the Broncos are at New England in a Monday nighter before the bye.  The Broncos also have trips to Atlanta, Carolina, and the Jets that could all be potentially difficult, plus what is shaping up to be a monster home game in December against Buffalo.  Even the home game against Miami suddenly doesn’t look the gimmie it appeared to be a month ago.  Of course, all of this could easily change next week, but the point is while the Broncos are off to a great start and have beaten good teams so far, they must continue to play well and stay focused if they want to keep pace with the other top teams in the league. 

Injuries of course also have a huge impact, and the Broncos will be without top receiving threats Eddie Royal AND Tony Scheffler on Sunday against the Jaguars, and possibly beyond.  Both players left Invesco Field on crutches after the Tampa Bay game, Royal having suffered an ankle injury and Scheffler a groin injury.  For Jay Cutler to lose two key receiving targets simultaneously could be awfully tough to overcome.  Factor in that Selvin Young also got banged up against Tampa and may miss next week, and the Broncos find themselves really shorthanded against a Jaguars defense that loves to be physical and play a tight, low scoring game like what the Broncos saw last week.  The Broncos do still have a lot going for them, and will need guys like Brandon Stokley and Michael Pittman to step up and play well. 

This is not meant to be doom and gloom and be pessimistic about the Broncos’ prospects the rest of the season, but rather to caution about getting too carried away just yet.  The Broncos have gotten off to a fast start and that’s important.  It’s also important that they keep it up.  Keep in mind the Broncos were 8-0 at home in 2005 when they made the AFC Championship Game.  They are 3-0 at home so far this year, and have another important home game on Sunday.  As long as the Broncos take Jacksonville seriously they should be fine, but they can’t afford letdowns like what they had in Kansas City.  There is a lot of season left, and the Broncos do have the tools to build on their fast start, but that’s all it is right now: a start.  The Broncos had better hope this season turns out more along the lines of 2005 and the late 90s, and not 2002, 2004, or 2006.

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Week Five Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on October 3, 2008

One quick follow up on the Raiders mess before we get into the picks this week.  It is clearer than ever that Al Davis needs to go.  There has never been an owner in sports who has messed up an organization worse than he has.  Check out what former Raider Warren Sapp had to say about his time playing for the Raiders.  I’ll let that speak for itself.  We now have proof that Davis actually calls plays sometimes during games.  Al Davis needs to go.  He is bad for the game, and he is an embarrassment in every way. 

Last week: 8-5 (.615)  Season: 38-22 (.633)

– Cardinals over Bills: This pick may seem strange considering the Bills are one of just three undefeated teams coming into this week.  They have seized the opportunity Tom Brady’s injury has given them in the AFC East.  They have given two spectacular fourth quarter performances in the last two games, so they should continue to roll right?  The flip side says they have trailed the Raiders and Rams entering the fourth quarter the past two games.  Arizona is hungry, returning home after a two game east coast skid.  In spite of their defensive struggles last week, the offense is really lighting it up though putting up big numbers.  Both offenses should put up big numbers making this game a fantasy players’ dream.  The Cardinals are tough at home, and that will prove the difference as Arizona wins in a mini-upset. 

– Chargers over Dolphins: The Chargers overcame a slow start to beat the Raiders last week, and seem to be hitting their stride offensively.  Meanwhile, the Dolphins have had two weeks to congratulate themselves for killing the Patriots.  On the surface this seems like a recipe for a trap game.  The Dolphins seem like they should be dangerous at home, but it’s easy to forget how awful Miami looked against Arizona the week before their big game in New England.  San Diego is two plays away from being 4-0, and they feel like they have something to prove.  Miami will keep it close early, but a hunch says the Chargers pull away late.

– 49ers over Patriots: This is a very intriguing game.  We’re still not sure what the Patriots really have with Matt Cassel at quarterback, but they have now had a bye week to figure it out.  What we know is that Bill Belichick decided not to bring anyone else in, so he is sticking with Cassel for better or worse.  New England also has had two weeks to stew over the loss to Miami.  Meanwhile, the 49ers have been up and down the first four games, but will have a charged atmosphere at home.  The crowd will be in a particular frenzy because the Niners are retiring Steve Young’s number.  I’m definitely going against the grain on this one, but I have a feeling J.T. O’Sullivan and company will have offensive success at home, and that will be enough to bump off a Patriots team that doesn’t come close to resembling the one that threatened history last season. 

– Cowboys over Bengals: The line on this game is 17, which no doubt ranks it among the biggest lines in recent memory.  Dallas is angry after a home loss to Washington last week, and the offense should break out against Cincinnati’s more than porous defense.  Carson Palmer should be back under center for the Bengals, but will it really matter?  Then you have Chad Johnson’s latest antics.  Everything points to Dallas winning this game so easily it will be over before the first quarter is half over.  Then again, it seems like every time I say a game is going to be a mismatch it ends up being competitive.  Still, I can’t come up with any scenario where Dallas doesn’t win this game by at least two touchdowns.

– Ravens over Titans: Another surprise pick, and another undefeated team going down.  Tennessee has been terrific defensively its first four games, but Baltimore’s defense has been very stingy as well.  I will honestly be surprised if either offense is able to move the ball much in this one, so field position and turnovers will decide this game.  Baltimore has already won two home games they weren’t supposed to win (both of which I picked correctly, but that’s beside the point), so a hunch says they make it a perfect three for three at home in this one.  There is no question the Ravens at 3-1 would have to rank among the top surprises of the NFL season in the early going. 

– Colts over Texans: This is a must win game for both teams.  Indianapolis is 1-2 heading in and is already looking up at both Tennessee and Jacksonville in the division.  The Colts have not looked like themselves in the early going, but they also are coming off the bye week.  Houston gave a gutsy performance in a tough road loss to Jacksonville, and now finally gets to host its first game of the season (the first was wiped out due to Hurricane Ike).  This is a really hard game to figure.  Will the Colts be back to their form from the past several years?  Which Houston offense will show up, the one from the first two games, or the one from last week against the Jaguars?  I go with the Colts only because I would be very surprised if they continued to slump that badly after the bye week, especially with Peyton Manning under center. 

– Broncos over Buccaneers: This should be a great game with both teams coming in 3-1.  Brian Griese gets to go against Denver for the first time, and he will no doubt be motivated to give a good showing after getting run out of Mile High following the 2002 season.  Tampa Bay is coming off a big win against Green Bay, and is looking to keep pace in the NFC South.  The Broncos are also motivated after last week’s embarrassing performance at Arrowhead, and the offense will look to get back to putting 30 points on the board.  A tough chore against the Tampa D for sure, but keep in mind that Jay Cutler actually threw for a career high 361 yards last week in Kansas City, with both Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal going over 100 yards.  Home field advantage will be enough to lift the Broncos in a close game.  It’s doesn’t hurt for the Broncos that Mike Shanahan is 8-1 lifetime against Jon Gruden. 

– Panthers over Chiefs: I sense a big letdown for Kansas City after their first win in almost a year last week.  Yes, the Chiefs offense did break out last week, but something tells me John Fox has had his team focused on stopping Larry Johnson all week.  Carolina does have two offensive linemen out, which could cause some protection problems for Jake Delhomme, but the Panthers should still be able to move the ball very effectively, especially at home.  Carolina has quietly been one of the more impressive teams in the first quarter of the season, particularly with the return of Steve Smith.  This should be a relatively easy win for the Panthers.

– Giants over Seahawks: Seattle is starting to get some its receivers healthy, which is good news for Matt Hasselbeck, but going into Giants Stadium these days is still a difficult chore for any team, let alone with one that has as many flaws as the Seahawks.  The Giants are without Plaxico Burress, who is serving a one game suspension, but they still have enough weapons to move the ball effectively against Seattle’s defense.  A win here could potentially leave the Giants as the only undefeated team in the league.  Anyone else think Tom Coughlin would be privately chuckling at all the “experts” who predicted the Giants would miss the playoffs this year?  I still laugh when I think about how anyone could possibly have come to that conclusion about the defending champs, especially considering their less than difficult early season schedule. 

– Eagles over Redskins: This is the game of the week, if nothing else because there is no question the NFC East is the best division in football.  Philadelphia suffered a tough road loss at Chicago last week, and returns home to play a Washington team that stunned the Cowboys.  Washington has had an impressive turnaround after their sloppy season opening loss to the Giants.  It will be very tough for Washington to win two straight division road games, so Philadelphia gets the nod here, but it won’t be easy.  The health of Brian Westbrook is extremely important for the Eagles, for they will need him as the season wears on to stay efficient on offense. 

– Bears over Lions: Detroit fans have to be happy that Matt Millen finally got dismissed after seven years of ineptitude.  I’m not sure though that the firing of the embattled GM will really have any effect though until the offseason.  It’s not like a coaching change where players sometimes get fired up.  Chicago meanwhile is arguably two plays away from being 4-0, and their defense did enough to beat an excellent Philly team last week.  The Bears shouldn’t have much trouble winning this one at Ford Field.   

– Packers over Falcons: Aaron Rodgers’ injured shoulder could be a potential issue here for Green Bay, but it seems as though he’s going to play.  The Packers struggled last week against Tampa Bay’s tough defense, but they still had chances to win the game.  The Packers have lost two straight, but those losses have come against two of the better teams in the NFC.  Atlanta has yet to prove it can play well on the road, and the hunch is that trend will continue at Lambeau Field.  That being said, the Falcons gave a better than expected performance in the loss to Carolina last week, and they should continue to improve as the season goes along. 

– Jaguars over Steelers: The Sunday night game should be another smashmouth game where running and defense will carry the day.  Jacksonville has finally gotten its running game together, thanks in part to David Garrard’s ability to scramble when needed.  The Steelers suffered a big blow last week with the season ending injury to Rashard Mendenhall, so they will have to find other ways to move the ball against the Jaguars’ defense.  Jacksonville will get a lift playing at home, and that will be enough to lift them to victory in this playoff rematch.  Keep in mind the Jags actually beat Pittsburgh twice last year, and both wins came on the road. 

– Saints over Vikings: This should be an entertaining Monday nighter.  The Vikings schedule really eases up after this game, so if they could pull a surprise at the Superdome they could easily get back on track.  Thing is, this is also a big game for New Orleans.  The Saints offense has been among the best in the league in the early going, and that trend should continue with Deuce McAllister easing back into the offense.  The Saints know they need to win this game to keep pace in the NFC South, and the home crowd will give the Saints a life to win this game. 

BYE: Jets, Browns, Raiders, Rams

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Days of Our Lives in the NFL, plus Baseball Playoff Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on October 1, 2008

I realize I am stating the obvious that the Oakland Raiders have been the NFL’s official soap opera for at least the last five years.  Is it possible to feel sympathy for a loathed division rival?  Is it possible the Raiders have become so bad and so embarrassing that it’s impossible to hate them anymore?  It’s certainly not possible to feel that way for Al Davis, who clearly doesn’t have the faintest clue how to run a team anymore.  As long he’s in charge, the Raiders will never again be even remotely good.  The almost comical part is how Davis deflects blame onto everyone but himself, and always has. 

Yesterday Davis dismissed Lane Kiffin, who it is very easy to feel sorry for after reading this letter Al Davis sent to him before their week two game in Kansas City.  Everyone knows Al Davis is an owner who is intimately involved in EVERY personnel decision, so it seems very hypocritical of him to pin the botched signings of Javon Walker and D’Angelo Hall on Kiffin, when everyone knows Davis pulled the trigger on the signings.  Especially in the case of Walker, it was obvious that was destined to fail.  He didn’t come to camp in shape, his personal life is a mess, and he’s coming off a second knee surgery in three years.  Yet, they guaranteed him $16 million.  How is that Kiffin’s fault?  That’s strictly on the owner.  It is equally comical that Davis is critical of Kiffin for not wanting to draft JaMarcus Russell, who has been anything but spectacular in his limited action this year and last.  (Anyone else think Davis misfired by not taking Adrian Peterson last year instead?  Yes, they got a good back in Darren McFadden this year, but that wouldn’t have been needed had they taken Peterson).  The point is, Al Davis has always made the final call on personnel decisions in Oakland, so it is very difficult to believe Davis that he has nothing to do with the organization being in the dumps. 

Why anyone would want to coach the Raiders is absolutely beyond me.  Kiffin is now the fourth coach fired by Davis since 2003.  That’s four coaches in four seasons (plus four games).  Um, anyone else think there is a pattern here that something is really wrong there besides the head coach?  The Raiders have no coaching stability since Jon Gruden left for Tampa before the 2002 season (is it coincidence his Buccaneers torched the Raiders in the Super Bowl the next year?).  Bill Callahan lasted two seasons, with the Raiders going absolutely in the tank in 2003 after the Super Bowl loss.  Norv Turner coached for two seasons before getting fired in 2005 after an awful 9-23 stretch over two seasons.  Then Art Shell lasted one year, finished a woeful 2-14, before Kiffin finished 4-12 last year and got fired after a 1-3 start this year.  The fact is Al Davis doesn’t allow his coaches to coach, despite what his letter to Kiffin may indicate.  There is a clear pattern here that his pressence is the problem in the Raiders organization. 

Now, this is not to say that game day coaching hasn’t been a factor in the Raiders’ slow start this year.  They blew a big fourth quarter lead in a loss at Buffalo, and then had a 15-0 lead against San Diego late in the first half before this sequence.  The resulting poor clock management resulted in a 76 YARD FIELD GOAL ATTEMPT.  Obviously, that’s insane that such a thing would even be attempted for several reasons, but that’s not really the point.  The point is the Raiders had a chance to extend their lead and didn’t, and ended up blowing a fourth quarter lead to the Chargers.  That being said, the pressure as head coach of the Raiders, and more specifically working for Davis, has to be stressful beyond belief.  The fact that something as crazy as a 76 yard field goal was even attempted is a reflection of the soap opera nature of the Raiders organization, and not specifically on Kiffin’s head coaching ability. 

There is some irony here, considering Davis fired Mike Shanahan as head coach four games into the 1989 season.  It is interesting to note that Shanahan lasted exactly as long as Raiders coach as Lane Kiffin: 16 games.  Davis is trying to say he fired Kiffin for cause so he doesn’t have to pay him, which is not surprising considering Davis still owes Mike Shanahan $250,000 that he has not paid to this day.  Shanahan has made Davis pay by routinely beating the Raiders during his tenure as coach of the Broncos, yet Davis has still not seemed to learn his lesson.  I am reasonably convinced that Kiffin will latch on somewhere in the league, probably not as a head coach right away, but he will get another opportunity to prove himself in the league.  It is quite clear that Kiffin being fired is not in any way a reflection of his head coaching ability.  The coach of the Raiders is essentially a yes man to Al Davis, who in spite of what he says, no doubt has his hand in the till in regards to key organization decisions, possibly right down to game plans.  As I say, why anyone would want to coach the Raiders is absolutely beyond me.  Anyone who takes that job is automatically destined to fail because Davis is running a joke of an organization.

As a side note, the Rams are not near as much of a soap opera as the Raiders, but their coaching change does not lack drama.  Scott Linehan angrily yanked Marc Bulger from the starting quarterback slot and gave it to Trent Green before the Buffalo game last week.  The Rams played hard, and actually had a lead going into the fourth quarter, but the Bills ended up pulling away.  Players said later they were upset with the Bulger benching, and it seemed like no one was on the same page.  Now, Jim Haslett has been installed as the interim head coach after Linehan was dismissed.  This despite Haslett being in charge of a defense that has surrendered 30 points every game so far this season.  Haslett has already re-instated Bulger as the starting QB, so it will be interesting to see if the drama continues in St. Louis.  Will either of these coaching changes make a difference?  Maybe, maybe not, but I am sure that Kiffin and Linehan will not be the last coaches to be fired this season. 

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

In spite of the fact that my Colorado Rockies reverted to their form prior to last year and flamed out well before September, I offer my picks for the baseball playoffs that begin today:

ALDS: Angels over Red Sox in five: The Angels were the best team in baseball during the regular season, and had everything clinched several weeks before the end of the season.  The Red Sox are not healthy. 

Rays over White Sox in four: Chicago has momentum, but they will have a letdown at Tropicana Field.  Tampa Bay’s surprise story continues, thanks in part to Carl Crawford’s return.

NLDS: Brewers over Phillies in five: C.C. Sabathia is the difference for Milwaukee as the Brewers bats outslug Philly in a high scoring series.

Cubs over Dodgers in four: The Dodgers benefited from the Manny Ramirez trade, but the Cubs have the pitching and the emotion of Wrigley in the first two games.

ALCS: Angels over Rays in seven: The Angels are deep, have a solid lineup, a terrific rotation, and a shut down bullpen.  Their experience is the difference against the young Rays.

NLCS: Cubs over Brewers in six: The Cubs owned the Brewers during the regular season, and that continues in the playoffs.

World Series: Cubs over Angels in seven: This would be one the best World Series matchups in a number of years.  The Cubs get it done because a 100 year drought seems long enough, and why not end it on a nice round number?

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Clearly I Was Drinking the Kool-Aid……

Posted by mizzou1028 on September 29, 2008

Now on to the picks, where in the theme of unpredictability I start with a real shocker: a winless team will break out this week and beat an undefeated team.

Okay, so maybe I was half right.  I did predict that a winless team would beat an undefeated team today in the NFL.  Problem is, I picked the wrong one.  I really thought the Rams would be the winless team to break out, and that the Bills were the team in danger of falling into a trap.  Instead, it was my Denver Broncos of all teams that were at the wrong end of the biggest shocker of the day: a 33-19 loss to league doormat Kansas City. This came as such a shock to me that I am now out of my eliminator pool.  Maybe I was looking at the game through orange colored glasses, but I could not come up with a scenario where this Chiefs team would be able to beat the Broncos, even at Arrowhead.  This was the Chiefs’ first win in nearly a year, dating back to October 21 of last year.  How was I supposed to expect Kansas City to score more points today than they had in their first three games combined?  The answer to that question is maybe the Broncos defense really is that bad, in which case they have a problem.  Larry Johnson nearly had 200 yards on the ground, including a 65 yard jaunt on the second play of the game.  Johnson is of course a Pro Bowl back, one of the best, but he is running behind an offensive line that is a mess.  If there was ever a game for Denver’s defense to get back on track, it should have been this one.  Then again, it may seem strange to say this after they surrendered 33 points and 6.5 yards per carry to the Chiefs, but it was really the defense that managed to keep the Broncos in the game.  Consider:

– The Broncos held the Chiefs to a field goal after the aforementioned scamper by Johnson on the first possession of the game.  The Broncos proceeded to hold the Chiefs to another field goal after a quick fumble gave KC the ball at the Denver 26.

– The Chiefs’ average starting field position was the 46 yard line, which does not speak well for the special teams (more on that in a moment).  Even a mediocre offense (like the Chiefs) doesn’t need to do much to get a minimum three points with that kind of starting field position.

– One of Kansas City’s touchdowns came after a fumble recovery allowed them to start at the 2-yard line for a gimmie touchdown.  That is not on the defense.  

– The Broncos held the Chiefs’ to a 5-of-13 conversion rate on third down, and Kansas City only converted 1 of 4 in the second half.  

– Despite four Denver turnovers on the road, they were an onside kick recovery away from being in position to drive for the tying score from midfield with plenty of time on the clock.

Are you sensing a theme here yet?  The Broncos’ defense, while giving up gaudy numbers, actually dug in and kept the score closer than maybe it should have been.  The Broncos offense was guilty of four turnovers, including two that came right after the team actually started to build momentum.  Any team that commits four turnovers on the road will never win, period, even against a so-called bad team.  The Broncos’ turnovers gave Kansas City progressively more and more confidence, and the Chiefs’ were able to feed off their crowd.  Even if the fans aren’t buying tickets they way they used to there, the ones that show up still cause noise and havoc for visitors.  The Chiefs were able to feed off that with each turnover the Broncos’ offense committed.  

The Broncos were also guilty of red-zone inefficiency.  Denver ended up with no points on a 28-yard missed field goal near the end of the first half (to be fair, Matt Prater drilled two 50-yarders later in the game, so this is not on him).  The Broncos also couldn’t covert from the four yard line in the fourth quarter when they had a chance to cut the game to three.  To be a good offense in the NFL, you need to convert in the red zone.  Coach Mike Shanahan said in the postgame the Broncos were only one of four in the red zone today.  That will never get it done, especially on the road.

The special teams was atrocious once again.  The Broncos allowed countless Kansas City kick returns that set the Chiefs up in excellent field position.  This was a major issue last year and has continued to be a problem the Broncos have been able to get around until today.  It didn’t help that the turnovers also gave the Chiefs’ continued excellent field position, but those two things combined are never a good recipe for success.

This is not to say the defense was faultless at all.  Obviously they need to do a better job stopping the run.  Despite their efforts to keep the team in the game, the 65-yard run by Johnson really set the tone and gave the Chiefs’ confidence they didn’t have coming in.  The front four still has yet to put any pressure on any quarterback they’ve faced in the early going this season, and that’s a problem too.  The secondary has had issues, the chief one being that Champ Bailey does not have a chance to make plays when opponents keep throwing at the other cornerbacks, all of whom happen to be struggling at the moment.

This game proved that every game is unpredictable and you can never truly know how any game is going to unfold, no matter how clear it seems on paper.  The Dallas Cowboys joined the Broncos as surprise losers today, in a home game where they were a double digit favorite.  Three of the top four college teams lost this weekend (USC, Georgia, and Florida).  The important thing for the Broncos to remember is they are 3-1 at the quarter mark of the season.  Last year they were 2-2 at this point, so already there is overall improvement.  One game does not make a season for sure.  The Broncos still have the look of a good team, but perhaps today’s game was a much needed lesson for a young team about life in the NFL.

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Week Four Picks Footnote

Posted by mizzou1028 on September 28, 2008

***One change one hour before kickoff***:

– Browns over Bengals: Carson Palmer is out with an elbow injury, which means Ryan Fitzpatrick is now the starter.  I don’t know about you, but this should clearly mean bad news for the Bengals offense.  Cleveland still does not have the look of a contending team, but Ryan Fitzpatrick under center for Cincinnati?  That more than negates Cincy’s home field edge.  Cleveland wins what is easily the dud game of the year, not just the week.

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Week Four Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on September 26, 2008

So you think it’s easy to predict the outcome of football games?  Sometimes it is, but most of the time it’s not.  Take last week’s Miami runaway at Foxboro.  Who on Earth would have predicted a Miami win, let alone a 5 touchdown effort (4 rushing, 1 passing) from Ronnie Brown?  The Dolphins didn’t just win, they blew the Patriots out the way they were expected to be blown out.  Countless people got bounced from their eliminator pools last week because of that game.  (Thankfully I wasn’t one of them).  The Patriots seemed like a cinch pick, if nothing else because they were coming off a road win that they collected even without Tom Brady.  Even branching out beyond the NFL, did anyone, save Oregon State alumni, really believe the Beavers had anything better than a 0 percent chance to beat USC last night?  Sure, Oregon State was playing at home, they had a hostile crowd, and they had historically played well vs. USC at home, but these factors didn’t seem to override the fact that USC has clearly looked like the best team in the country in the early going.  USC had steamrolled Ohio State 35-3, and the players and coaches were saying all the right things about how they weren’t looking past Oregon State and how they were taking their Pac-10 opener seriously.  Still, Oregon State jumped out to a big halftime lead, and managed to hang on for the win at the end.  Football is a very unpredictable game, which is what makes it so great.  As much as I would like to be able to predict the outcome of every game and make loads of money in Vegas, the truth is the games are fun to watch because you don’t know what will happen.  Every game is unique, and there are surprises seemingly every week.  It is the very unpredictability of the games that makes every week must-see viewing.  Given this unpredictability, I suddenly don’t feel so bad about predictions gone awry already, and am even pleased at some that have worked out.  Now on to the picks, where in the theme of unpredictability I start with a real shocker: a winless team will break out this week and beat an undefeated team.  See below:

Last Week: 13-3 (.812) Season: 30-17 (.638)

– Rams over Bills: We start with a major upset alert.   This is a classic example of a trap game.  The Bills may be 3-0, but they needed a late rally to hold off the underachieving Raiders at home last week.  Buffalo by all rights should be 2-1 if not for poor clock management late in the game by Oakland.  The Rams have been beyond awful the first three games of the year, but they have made a quarterback switch to Trent Green.  Like the Vikings with Gus Frerotte last week, I believe the Rams will get a lift with Green under center.  Not to mention, the players are trying to save Scott Linehan’s job already.  You know the formula, it’s a desperate team playing at home, and I say the Rams pull the shocker.  Their offense has way too much talent to keep stinking like this.  Those of you in eliminator pools should think twice about this matchup. 

– Cardinals over Jets: This is really a difficult game to pick.  Arizona gave a great effort at Washington last week, while the Jets looked lost against San Diego.  Brett Favre does not look as though he has his timing down with his receivers yet, and it will take time for the Jets’ offense to get in sync.  This has the potential to be a high scoring game, and if Arizona’s passing attack continues to click, they will put more points on the board than the Jets.  Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are without question one of the top three receiver duos in the league, and Kurt Warner looks as though he has found the fountain of youth.

– Bengals over Browns: Dud game of the week.  0-3 vs. 0-3.  Will either head coach be around by the end of the year?  Cincinnati gets the nod here because they will be at home, and because they actually showed a pulse against the Giants last week.  T.J. Houshmanzadeh has come out of hiding (12 catches last week), and if Chad Johnson/Ocho Cinco actually joins him the Bengals offense could be dangerous again.  Cleveland can’t keep sticking with Derek Anderson at QB can they?  I hate to say I told you so, all you national folks that were on the Browns bandwagon in August.

– Jaguars over Texans: This will be a close game, if nothing else because the Texans seem to play better against Jacksonville then anyone else.  The Jaguars made a statement last week at Indy, and they should carry that momentum to a home win this week.  Houston is a mess early, and they may also need to  ponder a quarterback switch.  The Texans have more talent than their play so far indicates, but it’s too much to ask them to win a road game right now.  It would not be a surprise if this is Matt Schaub’s last start in Houston for awhile. 

– Titans over Vikings: Tennessee has to rank among the season’s top early surprises.  Their defense gave another phenomenal performance last week against the Texans.  If they can shut down Adrian Peterson on Sunday, the Titans may just have the look of a team that can keep it going and be a player to win it all.  It will be interesting to see if they stick with Kerry Collins when Vince Young comes back, but something tells me Jeff Fisher is the right coach to prevent that from becoming a soap opera.  The Vikings were much improved last week, but it is difficult to give them the nod in a road game right now.

– Broncos over Chiefs: For the second straight home game, Kansas City is close to a non-sellout, absolutely unheard of in barbecue country.  This really has the look of a complete mismatch, a Broncos offense averaging 38 points per game vs. a Chiefs team that hasn’t scored 38 points combined in three games this season.  The Broncos do have to guard against a letdown here, because it is a division game and the Broncos historically have not played well at Arrowhead.  On the other hand, if last year’s Broncos team could win there by two touchdowns, this year’s club should have no problem with the offense playing at a record setting pace.  Kansas City goes back to Damon Huard at QB, but is that really an improvement over Tyler Thigpen?  On that thought, let’s add Herm Edwards to the “Will he last the season” question. 

– Chargers over Raiders:  Speaking of coaches, is this Lane Kiffin’s last game as Raiders coach?  Oakland does have their bye following this game, so his dismissal would not be a surprise.  Oakland should have won last week at Buffalo, but bungled the game away late.  The Chargers woke up and looked like their old selves last week against the Jets, so naturally all the national pundits are right back on the San Diego bandwagon.  Oakland should play hard in this division game, and they do have the backing of the Black Hole, but San Diego should find a way to steal this one.  The Chargers really could be unbeaten if not for a couple of bad breaks.

– Cowboys over Redskins: This is not the gimmie it appears for Dallas.  In fact, if the game were at FedEx Field instead of Texas Stadium, my pick might well be reversed.  Washington always plays Dallas tough, and the Cowboys could be in trouble if Terrell Owens is held to two catches like he was last week.  The Redskins do look like they’re getting their offense in sync and their defense is forcing turnovers.  There is no question that the NFC East is the best division in football, and every game will be close and hotly contested.  The Cowboys win this one, but expect it to go down to the wire.  The difference is Tony Romo will show more poise than Jason Campbell in the quarterback battle.

– Buccaneers over Packers: This will be one of the best games of the week.  Green Bay is looking to bounce back from last week’s home loss to Dallas, and Aaron Rodgers faces his first hostile road environment as a starter.  Tampa Bay pulled a surprise last week at Chicago, and Brian Griese is somehow playing excellent football (407 yards passing last week!).  This is essentially a coin flip game that is likely to be decided by the turnover battle.  That being case, I’m going with the better, more aggressive defense, and that would be the Buccaneers.  It is easy to forget that Tampa Bay won the NFC South last year. 

– Panthers over Falcons: Hard to believe that both of these teams are 2-1.  Carolina should benefit from playing at home, while the Falcons struggled in their one away appearance so far this year.  Matt Ryan is actually playing well for a rookie, but Carolina’s defense will be stiff test.  The safe bet here is that Steve Smith should have a big game for the Panthers at home, and that they should be able to win this game without too much trouble.

– Saints over 49ers: I really, really, want to pick the upset in this game, but the Saints will be very difficult to beat back at the Superdome after two road games.  This should be a high scoring shootout.  San Francisco is scoring points with the Mike Martz offense, while the Saints offense is as talented as anyone in the league.  This is a must win game for New Orleans if they want to keep pace in the NFC South, so that is the sway factor for the Saints.  San Francisco will keep this game close though, and I still say the Niners will crash the playoff party in January.  I have a sneaking suspicion i might come to regret this pick on Sunday afternoon. 

– Eagles over Bears: This should be a good Sunday night game at Soldier Field.  The Bears will be desperate after blowing one at home to Tampa Bay last week, while the Eagles are coming off a big win against Pittsburgh.  Philadelphia has Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook coming in less than 100 percent, which should help the Bears defense, but Chicago has not shown it can move the ball with any consistency offensively.  If the Eagles want to be a player in the NFC, this is the kind of game they need to win, and a hunch says they should have enough to pull this one out.

– Steelers over Ravens: This should be one the purists will love, a tough, physical, defensive battle in the AFC North.  Pittsburgh is reeling after getting sacked nine times in Philly last week, and will be without top back Willie Parker.  That being said, Baltimore has not played a road game yet, which means this is the first for rookie QB Joe Flacco.  I’m sure the Ravens would prefer a much less hostile environment for their rookie signal caller get his feet wet on the road, and that right there is the sway factor.  I simply can’t back a rookie QB in a road game like this.  Pittsburgh wins. 

BYE: Miami, New England, Indianapolis, NY Giants, Detroit, Seattle

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This Actually Feels Possible….

Posted by mizzou1028 on September 22, 2008

The Broncos are 3-0.  They lead the AFC West by two games.  Their offense is a machine, averaging 38 points a game, on pace to break the season scoring record set by New England last year.  Jay Cutler has thrown for 914 yards and 8 touchdowns in three games, while his top target Brandon Marshall, is on pace to break Jerry Rice’s record for receiving yards in a single season.  That even takes into account Marshall missing week one due to suspension.  As he continues to put up huge numbers, the other receiving targets will become even more dangerous.  The Broncos have also shown they can run the ball, even if it’s not the primary mode of attack.  Selvin Young averaged 5.9 yards on 11 carries yesterday, forcing the Saints to respect the run enough that the Broncos’ pass attack could be even more dangerous.  The Broncos offense has been by far the best in the league through the first three weeks of the season, and that alone makes them a real threat to do damage all year, perhaps a season earlier than expected with everyone so young.  For the Broncos to truly go where they want to go though, their defense has got to get better. 

The Broncos blew a 21-3 second quarter lead for the second straight week.  They gave up 502 yards of total offense to the Saints, including 414 through the air by Drew Brees.  They continued to give up big plays in the passing game, including a 74 yard pass to Robert Meachem to set up a Saints score.  They allowed the Saints to convert 8 of 14 third down attempts.  The fact they gave up 30 points for the second straight game is a red flag as well.  Considering these ominous signs on the defensive side of the ball, it’s easy to forget the Broncos are 3-0, and they have found a way to win these high scoring shootouts.

Consider that the Broncos won yesterday despite not scoring a point in the fourth quarter.  Yes, the defense gave up huge numbers but they did make plays when they needed to.  The defense scored a second quarter touchdown on a Nate Webster fumble return TD.  They came up with a stop on fourth and goal at the end of the first half.  They came up with a critical pass deflection on a two point conversion try that would have tied the score at 34 with ten minutes to play.  They came up with a stop on 3rd and 1 late to force what ultimately became Martin Gramatica’s missed field goal.  D.J. Williams actually seems to be on his way to a Pro Bowl season, having posted 16 tackles yesterday. 

There does seem to be enough talent on the defensive side of the ball that one can be optimistic improvement will be shown.  Keep in mind with the Broncos offense clicking on all cylinders, the defense doesn’t need to be spectacular, it just needs to be above average.  Or to put it another way, they need to be able to dig deep to come up with a big play when needed.  The Broncos know they have the offense that can score in bunches, particularly with a franchise quarterback and a star receiver leading the way.  They also know they have talent on defense.  The balance of power has shifted in the AFC with the Broncos joining the Titans, Bills and Ravens as the early division leaders.  (If ANYONE had those four teams leading their divisions at any point this season, than I’m Fred Flinstone).  The Broncos know they have a chance to do something special this season, and suddenly their season schedule doesn’t seem so daunting. 

As a side note, I can’t think of any other time in Broncos history where they were a 10 point favorite at Arrowhead Stadium, as they are for Sunday’s game.  Not only that, I’m wondering if it’s worth catching a weekend fare to Vegas, just so I can bet the farm the Broncos will cover, because I know the Broncos will put at least 30 points on the board, and even as suspect as the defense has been, they’ll at least be facing a Chiefs offense that couldn’t put 30 points on the board if 11 random fans were selected out of the stands to play defense.  If the Chiefs offense does in fact light up the Broncos D, than I will officially start to get concerned.

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