Reid Fischer's World of Rants

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Week Three Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on September 19, 2008

It never fails every year, the NFL offers us surprise after surprise.  Early 2-0 teams include the Cardinals, the Titans, the Broncos and the Panthers.  This does not mean any of them are guaranteed a spot in the playoffs (the Broncos actually started 2-0 last year too before finishing 7-9), but it does go with the theme of things turning upside down every year in the NFL. 

Meanwhile, THREE of my playoff picks, Minnesota, Jacksonville and San Diego sit 0-2, in addition to another team expected to do well by many (but not by me), the Browns.  Each of these teams has its entire season on the line already here in week three.  Just because any of these teams began 0-2, it does not mean that they are down and out.  In fact, one win can be all it takes to get things jump started.  I bring this up because the Giants started 0-2 last year after a tough loss at Dallas in week one and getting blown out at home by Green Bay in week two.  The Giants were staring 0-3 in the face with trip to Washington to play the division rival Redskins, and found themselves up by seven with 58 seconds to play, and the Redskins with first and goal at the 1.  The G-men were desperate.  A Redskins touchdown would send the game into overtime, and the fate of New York’s season could very well have depended on a coin toss to determine possession in overtime.  The Giants could have easily folded but the didn’t:

– First and Goal: Jason Campbell spikes the ball to stop the clock

– Second and Goal: Jason Campbell fade route to the corner of the end zone incomplete, well defended

– Third and Goal: Ladell Betts run for no gain, Giants defense steps up

– Fourth and Goal: The Giants defense blows up the line of scrimmage, stopping Clinton Portis for a two yard loss to preseve the win and save the season. 

The Giants win in Washington jump started a six game winning streak and sent them on their way to season that culminated in a Super Bowl victory.  Now, this is not to say that any of the 0-2 teams are guaranteed to have that kind of run if they pull out a win Sunday, but it does show that they are not necessarily dead and buried just yet.  One win is all it can take to jump start a season.  I suppose this could also apply to Miami, Kansas City, Cincinnati and St. Louis, who all sit at 0-2, but let’s not get too carried away here.  The teams mentioned above with playoff expectations are good teams that have simply stubbed their toe early and still have enough talent to rebound.  Bad teams are just bad and they have dug themselves a hole for a reason. 

 Now on to the picks.  We haven’t exactly been stellar the first two weeks but it’s still early. 

Last Week: 8-7 (.533)   Season: 17-14 (.548)

– Bills over Raiders: The Bills are quickly emerging as the surprise team of 2008.  If you take a look at their early season schedule, they could be a very hot team indeed.  Last week’s tough road win in Jacksonville proved the Bills are a team to be reckoned with.  The Raiders? Lane Kiffin is still very much on the hot seat, and let’s be honest: a win in Kansas City doesn’t really count right now.

– Patriots over Dolphins: It’s amazing really.  The Patriots never cease to amaze me.  Every time I think they’re done, they go and pull out a win they’re not supposed to.  It really doesn’t seem fair they get to take advantage of this complete mismatch on Sunday.  Is this perhaps a week Bill Belichick opens up the offense for Matt Cassel? The Dolphins seem like they’re playing for 2010, not 2008. 

– Giants over Bengals: The Giants continue to prove everyone wrong who said they were not going to return to the playoffs this season.  They went on the road last week, in a trap game to boot, and blew the Rams out of the stadium.  Now they get a Bengals team that has no identity whatsoever right now and is coming into a hornet’s nest.  Where exactly has Chad Johnson (or Ocho Cinco whatever the hell he is called now) disappeared to anyway? The only question here is the margin of victory for the G-men.

– Ravens over Browns: One of my upset picks of the week.  The Ravens are coming off an unexpected bye and will get Willis McGahee back.  The Browns offense has sputtered for a whopping 16 points in two games, and now gets the Ravens ballhawking defense on the road?  The Ravens at 2-0 seems bizarre and very misleading, but I don’t see how the Browns will be able to move the ball on them.  Yes, the Browns are desperate and their season is on the line, but this never had the feel of a contending team this year.  The Brady Quinn watch is on along Lake Erie.

– Eagles over Steelers: One of the top two games of the week without question.  I’ve gone back and forth on this game so much, I might as well flip a coin to make the pick.  Pittsburgh is clearly one of the top teams in the AFC, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  Philadelphia showed it can plays with the big boys in Dallas, and their offense is averaging 36 points over the first two games.  It’s really the unstoppable force versus the immovable object here.  I say home field advantage sways the unstoppable force and the Eagles offense to a win by a field goal.

– Titans over Texans: Tennessee would improve to 3-0 with a win, which would have to rank among the season’s early surprises.  The Titans defense has been terrific in the early going, which is a trademark of a Jeff Fisher coached team.  Kerry Collins gave a serviceable performance at QB last week, but the Titans did struggle to move the ball against Cincinnati’s suspect defense.  The Texans should be anxious to play after last week’s surprise bye, and it would not surprise me to see them put up some points.  I still say Houston is at minimum an 8-8 team by the end of the season.  Tennessee ultimately wins this game, but an upset is not out of the realm of possibility here. 

– Jaguars over Colts: Another upset alert.  Jacksonville has nothing less than its entire season on the line here, for they can’t afford to go 0-3.  They have always played the Colts very tough, even in Indy.  The Colts offense is still struggling to find itself, and Peyton Manning will have to once again work behind a patchwork offensive line that is looking to get healthy.  Jacksonville will look to run the ball, particularly with Colts’ run stopping safety Bob Sanders out of the lineup due to injury.  Even after pulling out the win last week, the Colts still seem very vulnerable. 

– Broncos over Saints: This could very well be another high scoring game.  The Broncos are averaging 40 points a game, and they’re facing a Saints team with plenty of explosive weapons.  This is a trap game for Denver after two division games and another next week.  The Saints are coming off a loss last week and don’t want to fall to 1-2.  It will be interesting to see if the Broncos have an answer for Reggie Bush after they got carved up by Darren Sproles last week, but it will also be interesting to see if the Saints suspect secondary has an answer for Denver’s passing game.  If Santana Moss ran wild last week, I don’t think the Saints will be able to stop Marshall, Royal and company.  The Broncos at 3-0 would rank as one of the season’s early surprises for sure.

– Falcons over Chiefs: Kansas City is starting Tyler Thigpen at QB, which tells you all you need to know about this game.  KC’s one real offensive threat, Larry Johnson, is upset about the direction of the organization after two games.  Atlanta is returning home where they won in week one, and the Falcons should have enough to beat one of the struggling franchises in football.  I don’t think anyone expected Matt Ryan to start his career 2-1 before the season.  Then again, I’m sure any rookie QB would give his non-throwing arm to face the Lions and Chiefs in two of the first three games of his career. 

– Cowboys over Packers: Besides Pittsburgh-Philly, a top game of the week for sure.  The Cowboys have been arguably the best team in football through two games, and will face a Packers team that is also undefeated, and will be playing under the lights at Lambeau.  If Aaron Rodgers passes this test against the Cowboys defense, then I guess I will have to start eating crow.  I have to admit I didn’t think Rodgers would be successful especially early in the year, but he is starting to prove that wrong in a hurry.  Green Bay will benefit from the Lambeau crowd, but Dallas is a team on a mission this season.  The Cowboys will find a way to pull this one out in a high-scoring thriller.

– Cardinals over Redskins: Something seems very weird about picking Arizona to start the year 3-0, but the Cardinals seem to be finally showing that potential we’ve been hearing about for five years.  The Redskins did show some toughness coming from behind to beat the Saints last week, and they will benefit from playing at home.  This is another game I might as well flip a coin to pick really, but a hunch says the Cardinals passing game will click enough to give Arizona the W.  If Arizona wins this game on the road, we might have to acknowledge for the first time since well, maybe ever, that the Cardinals are for real.

– Bears over Buccaneers: Chicago lost a tough game on the road last week, but their defense seems to be back to the level of two years ago when they went to the Super Bowl.  Tampa Bay is a good defensive team as well, so this should be a low scoring game.  The difference will be the Bears being able to make one play than the Bucs to squeak out a win in their home opener at Soldier Field.  Frankly, I just can’t back Brian Griese on the road.

– 49ers over Lions: Last week San Francisco made me have confidence in my pick that they would be playoff team this year.  As J.T. O’Sullivan settles into the Mike Martz offense, we should see his numbers begin to climb.  The Lions have been dreadful defensively the first two games, so the Niners should be able to rack up the points in this one.  It seems impossible to really back Detroit in any scenerio until they prove they can stop making silly mistakes throughout a game.

– Vikings over Panthers: Minnesota has already hit the panic button, yanking Tarvaris Jackson for Gus Frerotte under center.  The Vikings will be playing at home, and they do have their season on the line in this one, for it would be very difficult to climb out of an 0-3 hole (especially with a trip to Tennessee next week).  The Panthers get Steve Smith back, which should actually help their offense, and Jake Delhomme is playing very well after Tommy John surgery in the offseason, but the Vikings are desperate team playing at home, and Minnesota pulls the mini-upset. 

– Seahawks over Rams: This is much more a pick against the Rams than it is for the Seahawks.  Seattle is a mess at the wide receiver position.  The Seahawks are so banged up there they had to sign Koren Robinson off the street and make a trade for Keary Colbert, who wasn’t being activated on game day in Denver.  Both will get significant time this week, which makes me wonder if the Seahawks will have any cohesion at all offensively.  Yes, the Rams have been awful the last two games, but it’s not like the Seahawks have been anything to write home about.  Seattle gets the win because they’re playing at home, but this will be a very sloppy game and an upset would not come as a complete shock if the Rams offense gets in any kind of rhythm. 

– Chargers over Jets: In the Monday nighter, San Diego goes with the weekend theme of a desperate team with their season on the line already.  The Chargers have suffered two heartbreaking losses in the first two weeks, and are certainly way too talented to end up at 0-3.  LT’s toe could be a lingering issue all year, but Darren Sproles has proven he can be a playmaker.  Brett Favre isn’t exactly going to be afraid of playing on the road, but the emotion of the home crowd and the desperation of the Chargers makes this a no-win for the Jets this week.

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WOW!

Posted by mizzou1028 on September 15, 2008

I still can’t believe that game.  The fact that the Broncos own a 2-0 record and just beat the defending division champs is the tip of the iceberg.  Where to begin?  Is the story the big numbers put up by the offense?  Even at that, is the focus on a career passing day for Jay Cutler, a franchise record for receptions in a game by Brandon Marshall, or the clutch play of Eddie Royal?  Is it the clutch drive at the end of game, culminating in a wild two point conversion to take the lead?  Is the story the officiating crew of Ed Hochuli giving the Broncos a huge break in the game’s final 90 seconds?  The answer is probably some combination of the above, all winding together to result in one of the most exciting finishes in Broncos history. 

Mike Shanahan certainly showed a lot of gusto going for the two point conversion and the win, and on the top of that running the exact same playused to score the touchdown.  It’s extremely rare that a coach will elect to roll the dice with a two point play as opposed to kicking the extra point and playing for overtime.  This is the kind of out of the box thinking that made Shanahan a great coach in the first place.  He is telling his team with that decision that he is going for it this year.  He is telling them that he believes this offense can get the job done.  He has confidence that his team can get three tough yards and convert the two point play with the game on the line.  This could very well end up paying more dividends than just a two point conversion to win a game.  This could have a positive impact on the entire season, giving the offense confidence that they can get the job done, even in adverse circumstances. 

The Broncos’ offense through two games is averaging 40 points a game, which is obviously phenomenal.   Even in the Super Bowl championship years, the offense never consistently lit it up to quite that degree.  This might actually be the first year of the Mike Shanahan era where the running game isn’t the primary focus of the offense.  If the first two games are any indication, the Broncos are really opening it up this year.  Jay Cutler seems extremely confident in his third year, completing 70 percent of his passes through two games for 650 yards, 6 touchdowns and only 1 pick.  Brandon Marshall shattered the team’s single game reception record yesterday with 18 grabs against the Chargers.  Eddie Royal is looking a star through two games in the other wide receiver spot.  Tony Scheffler is evoking memories of Shannon Sharpe at the tight end position.  It is clear that passing seems to be the Broncos’ primary mode of attack this year.  They did get good hard running yesterday from Andre Hall and Selvin Young, and I still think Ryan Torian will be in the picture somewhere when he returns from injury, but this could be the first Mike Shanahan team not to be focused primarily on running the ball.  Regardless, this is one of the best offenses in football in the early going.

The defense and special teams on the other hand has some serious issues.  Darren Sproles alone carved the Broncos up yesterday for a 102 yard kickoff return touchdown and a 66-yard touchdown reception.  Granted, Sproles is a heck of a player, and on both of those plays he had more than enough speed to blow by everyone.  That aside, giving up big plays were the Broncos’ biggest Achilles heel last season, and early on it seems like it could be rearing its ugly head again.  In some ways it’s hard to get a good read on the Broncos performance when you see they held LaDainian Tomlinson to 26 yards on 10 carries.  A closer look though reveals that Tomlinson played with a bum toe, and Sproles rushed for 7.6 yards a carry in addition to his two big scoring plays.  The Broncos also gave up a 48-yard touchdown pass to Chris Chambers and watched their defense give up scores on FIVE consecutive possessions.  If the Broncos want to be an elite team in the league, they need to shore that up in a hurry.  Even next week’s game against the Saints poses a big challenge with threats like Reggie Bush, so the defense will definitely need to get better.

A quick thought on the Jay Cutler fumble that was ruled incomplete in the waning moments: yes, it did look a fumble to me.  That being said, Ed Hochuli did the only thing he could do given the rules.  Since the whistle had blown, he couldn’t give the ball to San Diego.  The Chargers probably should be upset about the ruling, but they still had an opportunity to stop the Broncos on fourth down, and on the two point conversion.  Even after that, they still had time for a quick drive to get in field goal range.  The Broncos should not apologize for winning this game, and if the Chargers believe they were wronged, they should have sucked it up and made a stop.  Since they didn’t do that, the Broncos have nothing to apologize about.

The bottom line is the Broncos are 2-0, and are in sole possession of first place in the AFC West.  Thing is, they were in the exact same position a year ago, so nothing is assured yet by any means.  The Giants started 0-2 last year and won the Super Bowl, so everything should be taken with a grain of salt.  I do think this year definitely has a more positive vibe overall for the Broncos than last year, and it certainly looks like they will definitely be playing into January this season if their current play keeps up.

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Week Two Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on September 12, 2008

This NFL season is certainly shaping up to be very intriguing on a number of fronts.  Could we possibly have a playoffs that doesn’t include New England OR Indianapolis?  It could be possible if Matt Cassel proves to be no Tom Brady and the Colts take too long to get it together after their disastrous week one effort.  Are the Jets the new favorite in the AFC East, or is Buffalo for real?  Are the Steelers ever going to get their due for being consistently good?  Is the Bears defense back to the level of two years ago?  Who is going to win the awful NFC West?  It’s only one week into the season, and a number of my season picks are threatening to blow up in my face already.  I keep telling myself it’s still early, but it is possible that my AFC Super Bowl pick may not be all its cracked up to be. I still think Jacksonville’s defense will not allow them to be a disappointment.  Was I nuts to pick the 49ers to win the NFC West?  I still maintain they’ll be a surprise by the end of the year.  Was I drinking the Kool-Aid on the Minnesota hype?  I still think they have a team that is scary talented.  Am I underestimating Aaron Rodgers? I have to admit he looked very good in week one.  We’ll see if he can maintain it over the long haul.  Are the Chargers in trouble without Shawne Merriman?  Or is that wishful thinking on my part?.  It did seem like someone forgot to tell them the season started for three quarters against Carolina.  Speaking of the Panthers, are they once again a contender in the NFC? That offense could really come alive when Steve Smith returns from suspension in week three.  How praytell did the Falcons win a game, let alone dominate? I reserve judgement until I see them against someone other than Detroit.  

At least I got a few things right in week one.  The Cowboys dominated on the road.  The Browns looked lost and confused.  The Giants looked dominant like you would expect a defending champ to be.  The Bengals REALLY stink, or did you see Joe Flacco score on a 38-yard touchdown run while jogging through the Bengals defense? The Seahawks looked horrible on the road.  Brett Favre can still play a little.  Donovan McNabb looks poised for a big season.  The Raiders are a mess akin to Days of Our Lives as usual.  The Broncos offense could be scary good.  Or maybe that’s wishful thinking.  Perhaps that was more the Raiders are awful.  

One thing I know, this could be a season unlike any other.  Or maybe it will be just like any other.  For 11 consecutive seasons, there have been at least five teams in the playoffs who did not qualify the previous year.  With the exception of the 2006 Seahawks, the Super Bowl loser has missed the playoffs every year since 2000.  Even at that the Seahawks only made it past the first round the next year thanks to Tony Romo’s butterfingers.  Here are the numbers:

2000 New York Giants – Lost Super Bowl XXXV
2001 New York Giants – 7-9 record, no playoffs

2001 St. Louis Rams – Lost Super Bowl XXXVI
2002 St. Louis Rams – 7-9 record, no playoffs

2002 Oakland Raiders – Lost Super Bowl XXXVII
2003 Oakland Raiders – 4-12 record, no playoffs

2003 Carolina Panthers – Lost Super Bowl XXXVIII
2004 Carolina Panthers – 7-9 record, no playoffs

2004 Philadelphia Eagles – Lost Super Bowl XXXIX
2005 Philadelphia Eagles – 6-10 record, no playoffs

2005 Seattle Seahawks – Lost Super Bowl XL
2006 Seattle Seahawks – 9-7 record (made playoffs, 2nd round exit)

2006 Chicago Bears – Lost Super Bowl XLI
2007 Chicago Bears – 7-9 record, no playoffs

2007 New England Patriots – Lost Super Bowl XLII
2008 New England Patriots – ??????

This does not bode well for the Patriots in light of Tom Brady’s injury.  I know, I picked the Patriots to return to the AFC title game, but I also said they were done if Brady went down.  It will be interesting to see if the Patriots continue the trend of Super Bowl losers struggling the next year.  On one hand, it is hard a fathom a team threatening history one year and missing the playoffs the next year.  On the other hand, the Patriots missing the playoffs this year would be right in line with what the NFL is about much of the time. I still shudder when I think of the Broncos going 6-10 in 1999 after winning back to back Super Bowls and being favored to compete for a third.  After all there is the old cliche “On any given Sunday……”   Now on to the picks.

Last Week: 9-7

– Jaguars over Bills: I have to admit I really struggled with this one.  The Bills dominated Seattle last week, and the Jaguars look like they could be in trouble.  Still, I can’t picture the Jaguars 0-2, especially with Jack Del Rio having a week to drill discipline into his team before the home opener.

– Cardinals over Dolphins: Surprise stat of the week: the Cardinals actually went 6-2 at University of Phoenix Stadium last season.  The Cardinals at 2-0 would rank among the season’s early surprises, but it would be an even bigger surprise if Chad Pennington had a big day against what is becoming one of the league’s most underrated secondaries.

– Jets over Patriots: Brett Favre’s home debut in New York puts an extra charge into this one, plus the Jets would just love to stick it to the Patriots in the wake of Spygate last year.  I have a feeling Matt Cassel will find the road to be much more daunting than Gillette Stadium.  Oh, and he doesn’t have the luxury of facing the Chiefs.

– Titans over Bengals: No Vince Young for Tennessee, but it won’t matter.  There are high school teams that tackle better than Cincinnati’s defense.  The Bengals offense looked a little confused too last week.  Carson Palmer under 100 yards passing?  The Marvin Lewis watch begins in Cincinnati.  I say 75 percent he’s axed before the year is over.

– Steelers over Browns: Pittsburgh will run away with the AFC North.  The Browns proved last week that they are a ways from the elite against Dallas.  This one will be competitive due to the rivalry factor, plus an emotional under the lights home crowd in Cleveland, but the Steelers are the class of the division and they will prove it.

– Vikings over Colts: Chalk this one up as the most intriguing game of the week for me.  Is this an elimination game of sorts already?  The Colts cannot be confident heading into the loud Metrodome after getting shelled at home in their opener.  Minnesota needs Tarvaris Jackson to show that potential we keep hearing about, but the Vikings defense will follow the Bears blueprint and harass Peyton Manning.  Peyton, meet Jared Allen.  Good luck.  The Colts at 0-2? It seems beyond crazy, but it might just happen.

– Broncos over Chargers: Denver’s confidence is sky high after destroying the Raiders on the road, plus Brandon Marshall is back.  If D’Angelo Hall couldn’t cover Eddie Royal one on one, how are the San Diego corners going to handle him and Marshall?  The Chargers pass rush will really miss Merriman, plus Antonio Gates is hobbled.  The Broncos might allow a high rushing day for LT, but their offense will be enough to win a shootout and enjoy a large lead in the AFC West.  San Diego at 0-2? Seems really crazy, but it just might happen.

– Chiefs over Raiders: Dud game of the week.  The rivalry is nasty enough that the game could actually be fun to watch, but these are two of the worst teams in the league.  The Chiefs are reportedly having trouble selling out Arrowhead for this game, which tells all you need to know about the state of football these days in Kansas City.  Still, the Raiders are a mess in every way, and Larry Johnson will run for enough to get KC a rare W.  

– Giants over Rams: The G-men’s biggest challenge will be overcoming a 10-day layoff after opening the season with their Thursday night win over Washington.  St. Louis was maybe the worst team in week one, so there is nowhere to go but up.  This seems like it could be a trap game for New York if the Rams’ offense wakes up (Torry Holt 1 catch for 9 yards last week – are you kidding me?).  Still, the Giants should be able to rely on their championship experience and pull out a win.

– Saints over Redskins: New Orleans will really miss Marques Colston, who is out 4-6 weeks.  Still, Drew Brees has enough targets for the team to score offensively.  The Redskins looked like they didn’t know which end was up offensively last week.  If that continues, New Orleans will win a low scoring affair.

– Bears over Panthers: This should be a great game.  Both teams pulled shockers in week one, so it’s hard to say which of these teams is better right now.  The Panthers are without Steve Smith for another week, so that gives an edge to the Bears defense.  Chicago won on the road during their Super Bowl run two years ago, and the hunch is they’ll find a way to pull out this one.  This one really could go either way though.

– Packers over Lions: Aaron Rodgers played well last week in the spotlight, and the Packers look like they have a statement to make.  Detroit? The Lions should be embarrassed losing to Atlanta.  Home field advantage won’t help the Lions if they keep playing like that.  This won’t exactly be a difficult road environment for Green Bay’s young signal caller.

– Buccaneers over Falcons: Brian Griese gets the start for Tampa so that gives slight pause.  Still, the Falcons aren’t playing Detroit anymore.  Matt Ryan could be in for a rude awakening this week against Monte Kiffin’s defense.  Tampa Bay almost stole one last week and could be just good enough to make things interesting in the NFC South.  On a side note, I am kicking myself that I didn’t rank Michael Turner higher in fantasy this year.  He could have some big games this year even though he’s playing for the Falcons.

– Seahawks over 49ers: Seattle is still really banged up, and I really want to pick the upset.  Thing is, Seattle has a tremendous home field advantage, and there is no reason to back San Francisco on the road right now after the way they played last week.  Besides, Matt Hasselbeck has got to play better this week doesn’t he? This could be a really sloppy game.

– Texans over Ravens: This game has been moved to Monday night due to Hurricane Ike, which makes it the first Monday night game in Texans history.  Even though it won’t be nationally televised,that’s enough for me in this toss-up matchup.  Baltimore’s defense is still good, but I still want to see Joe Flacco on the road.  Houston is a much better team than what they showed last week.

– Cowboys over Eagles: This too will be a fantastic game.  In a way it’s a shame one of these teams will have to start the year 1-1.  I like the Cowboys in what should be a raucous atmosphere for their home opener, on a Monday night no less.  Still, the Eagles pose a big challenge.  The sway factor will be a monster game from Terrell Owens, eager as always to show Andy Reid and company they did him wrong.

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How’s that For Openers?!?

Posted by mizzou1028 on September 9, 2008

Wow.  That’s all I have to say after watching the Broncos absolutely trash the Oakland Raiders last night to cap off week one.  I certainly didn’t expect a 41-14 blowout win.  Sure, I am always an optimist about my team and always can come up with a reason why they will win, but I sure didn’t expect complete domination to that degree.  Only on one other occasion in their history have the Broncos scored more points in an opener (I still remember that day vividly. I was sitting in the south stands as a sixth grader when the Broncos trounced the Bengals at Mile High.)  Sure, they were playing the Raiders, who true to their tradition kept shooting themselves in the foot, but it is impossible to not be optimistic and excited as a Broncos fan after their effort last night.  Taking into account everything that happened around the league in week one, I am more convinced than before that the Broncos will return to the playoffs.  If they can can score 41 points without Brandon Marshall, imagine when he’s back next week. 

Eddie Royal’s performance last night was phenomenal: nine catches for 146 yards and a touchdown, all while going against one of the league’s premier corners in D’Angelo Hall, who received a $66 million contract from the Raiders in the offseason.  The Broncos certainly look like they have a steal in the draft in Royal, who when paired with Brandon Marshall should be even more explosive.  Throw in Tony Scheffler, who came up with a huge 72 yard catch last night, and Darrell Jackson, who caught a 48 yard touchdown pass, and Jay Cutler certainly doesn’t have a shortage of targets.  The running game should benefit from the weapons in the passing game, and the offensive line seems in better shape than last year.  It is a testament to rookie left tackle Ryan Clady that you didn’t hear his name called at all last night.  That means Clady did his job, not allowing a sack and not getting called for a penalty all night. 

Defensively the Broncos weren’t spectacular, but they got the job done.  The Raiders gashed them on the ground in two games last year to the tune of 185 yards per game.  Last night they rushed for 150, which is a slight improvement, but the Raiders still ran for over five yards a carry.  The Broncos will have to shore that up, and will get a good test next week with LaDainian Tomlinson.  The Broncos certainly took advantage of the opportunities presented to them by the Raiders’ ineptitude offensively, and that’s part of what a defense needs to do.  They did get good pressure on JaMarcus Russell a number of times, which is something they weren’t able to do last year.  As the season goes on though, the Broncos will need to make sure they can consistently stop the run and put pressure on the QB.  Last night the run wasn’t much of a factor for the Raiders because the Broncos jumped out to an early lead, but the Broncos will need to stop the run in order to win close games. 

The Broncos have a huge game next week with San Diego coming into Mile High.  The Broncos are the only team in the AFC West with a win in week one.  Just one week into the season, the Broncos find themselves in a conference where the defending champion Patriots have lost their MVP quarterback for the year, the perennial powerhouse Colts looked confused in a week one loss, the chic pick Jaguars got stunned in their first game, and the favorites in their own division, the Chargers, lost on the last play in their first game.  The AFC is wide open for the taking, and the Broncos find themselves in the thick of it with a number of other teams.  This should definitely be a wild ride in the NFL this year.

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Week One and Season Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on September 5, 2008

Football is finally back!  I know, they’ve been playing the preseason games for a month but that doesn’t count.  Last night’s win by the Giants over Washington officially kicked off the year.  Count me among those that feels the Giants are really being slighted and are not being given the respect a defending champion should deserve.  Yes, they lost their top two defensive ends (Michael Strahan to retirement and Osi Umenyiora to a season ending injury in preseason) but they still the defending champs, and last night they played like it.  The Redskins looked lost offensively most of the game, in large part because the Giants managed to get pressure on Jason Campbell.  Eli Manning didn’t have a great game, but he made enough plays early to give the Giants the lead, and Plaxico Burress proved he is still the real deal. 

I am genuinely baffled how many people are predicting a bad year for the Giants.  My hometown newspaper, the Denver Post, predicted a 20-19 Redskins win yesterday.  Of the 16 experts on espn.com, only one is predicting the Giants to win the NFC East (to be fair they actually didn’t last year) and seven of those experts believe the Giants will miss the playoffs.  The Sports Guy on espn. com is offering the following: Prediction No. 9: The Giants finish either 7-9, 6-10 or 5-11.   Plleeeasseee.  If you know anything about football, you know that is unlikely for a defending Super Bowl champion, particularly one with a tough defense that has proven over the years it can win on the road.  At least Sports Illustrated is picking the Giants to go 9-7 and win one playoff game.  I’m not saying the Giants will repeat, or even that they’re a lock to win the division (the Cowboys are loaded and dangerous and perhaps the favorite in the NFC).  I’m simply saying the Giants should at least get a little more respect than they’re getting.  Their next two games are at St. Louis and home against Cincinnati.  It’s very possible the G-men will begin the season 3-0, and there are several idiots out there thinking they won’t make the playoffs?  If they were playing in the AFC maybe, but not in the mediocre NFC.

Now, to be fair, I offer my picks for the season, and I have as much chance of being wrong as anyone else (and probably will be).  It is easy to forget that there is numerous turnover in the league every year, and there will always be surprise teams, as I offer a couple of shockers below. 

NFC EAST CHAMP: Dallas (13-3)  The Cowboys blew an opportunity last year with a home playoff loss.  The offense returns loaded as ever, and if everyone on the roster behaves this is the team to beat in the NFC, and maybe in the league.  The addition of Pacman Jones is huge if he stays out of trouble, as he is one of the top kick returners in football and a solid corner.  Zach Thomas also shores up the linebacking core.  Tony Romo and Terrell Owens have a clear chemistry that will allow the offense to light it up again this season. 

NFC NORTH CHAMP: Minnesota (10-6) I still believe the Vikings would have been a real player for the Super Bowl if they had gotten Brett Favre.  Tarvaris Jackson will have pressure on him all season, but with Adrian Peterson back there the Vikings will score a lot of points.  The league’s top run defense got even better with the addition of Jared Allen.  Expect at least 15 sacks out of him. 

NFC SOUTH CHAMP: New Orleans (10-6) The Saints have as much offensive talent as anyone and were a real disappointment last year.  This year they should be able to turn it around and be able to win a division that is up for grabs.  Reggie Bush should explode in his third year with a healthy Deuce McAllister accompanying him at running back.  The key will be how well their defense performs.  Carolina could be a darkhorse here, but they are likely to wear down with so many key players having a history of injury. 

NFC WEST CHAMP: San Francisco (9-7) This is my real surprise pick.  The 49ers have stunk it up in recent years, and start a no name quarterback in J.T. O’Sullivan.  Thing is, Mark Martz has taken over as offensive coordinator and brings receiver Isaac Bruce with him from his old days in St. Louis.  Martz has had success with all kinds of quarterbacks (Kurt Warner in 1999 anyone?) and the Niners will benefit from playing in an awful division.  I actually thought about Arizona here, but the Cardinals will continue their pattern of underachieving in the desert. 

NFC WILD CARDS: New York Giants (11-5) Philadelphia (10-6)  Both teams play in the rugged NFC East, which produced both wild card teams last season.  The Giants, as mentioned above, are much better than the respect they are being shown, and will prove it by returning to the playoffs.  The Eagles prospects could well depend on the health of Donovan McNabb, but they finished last season with a bang and should continue that momentum into the season. 

You may notice the absence of Green Bay.  I stand by my opinion that they made a colossal error rejecting Brett Favre in favor of Aaron Rodgers, and that distraction will carry over.  You don’t simply replace a legend quarterback, it doesn’t happen.   I don’t think the Seahawks will make it because they have benefited for years playing in a weak division, but their lack of running game will kill them, in addition to the fact that they don’t have many stars that jump off the page. 

NFC WILD CARD ROUND: New Orleans over Philadelphia, N.Y. Giants over San Francisco

NFC DIVISIONAL ROUND: Dallas over N.Y. Giants, Minnesota over New Orleans

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: Dallas over Minnesota

AFC EAST CHAMP: New England (12-4) The Patriots will be very good once again.  The health of Tom Brady does seem to be a question mark, and a caveat here is that if he goes down they are done.  The Patriots will not challenge for 16-0 again but will be able to win the division without much difficulty thanks to a friendly schedule.  Randy Moss should have another big year. 

AFC NORTH CHAMP: Pittsburgh (11-5) The Steelers have a tough physical defense that will help them win a lot of games, particularly in cold weather late in the year.  Rashard Mendenhall could be a rookie of the year candidate and will help ignite their offense and will complement Willie Parker. 

AFC SOUTH CHAMP: Jacksonville (12-4) One of my other surprise picks.  This has traditionally been an automatic for Indy, but the Jaguars are ready to break out.  Their defense is without question a top five unit, and the offense will benefit from the addition of Jerry Porter at wideout.  The Jaguars nearly upset the Pats in the playoffs on the road last year.  David Garrard is underrated as a passer and it wouldn’t shock me to see him in the Pro Bowl. 

AFC WEST CHAMP: San Diego (11-5) The Chargers biggest question is if they can stay healthy.  LaDainian Tomlinson appears healthy and ready to go, but Antonio Gates does not.  Shawne Merriman declined surgery so he could play this year, and that will be interesting to see if that affects the Chargers.  Still, there is enough talent that they are the division favorites considering the rest of the division. 

AFC WILD CARDS: Indianapolis (10-6) Denver (10-6)  The Colts will still make the playoffs even if they don’t win the division.  Peyton Manning is still Peyton Manning and the offense will be good as usual.  Call me crazy, but I think there could be a leftover effect from their stunning playoff loss to San Diego last year.  The Colts in recent years have debunked the theory they can’t win on the road, but something doesn’t seem right about this team entering the season.   As for the Broncos, I realize this looks like a hometown pick, but I expect big breakout years from Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall.  The run defense can’t possibly be any worse than last year, yet the Broncos still managed seven wins as bad as it was.  Slight improvement in that area should lead to a few more wins, and the fact they have four games against the Chiefs and Raiders will put them in the playoffs.

I’ve left out several good teams, many of which would make it if they were playing in the NFC.  The Jets will barely miss out of the postseason, and it won’t be Brett Favre’s fault they don’t get there.  The Jets made several improvements in the offseason, but a difficult early schedule will put them behind an eight ball they won’t be able to get in front of.  The Titans are a solid team that made the playoffs a year ago, but this year they will also fall just short.  I believe the Browns, one of the “hot” teams in this year’s media, were a fluke last year.  It would not shock me to see Derek Anderson usurped as the starting QB by Brady Quinn at some point, and that will doom the Browns. 

WILD CARD ROUND: Pittsburgh over Denver, Indianapolis over San Diego

DIVISIONAL ROUND: Jacksonville over Pittsburgh, New England over Indianapolis

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: Jacksonville over New England

SUPER BOWL: Dallas over Jacksonville    

The Cowboys have every piece necessary to win it all.  They came very close last season, and I believe they too would have beaten the Patriots in a Super Bowl rematch had they had the chance.  Last year’s playoff loss will serve as motivation all year and this season they will be able to get it done. 

Before we wrap up, I also offer my selections for the rest of week one.  Picks do not take point spread into account:

– Bills over Seahawks: The Bills are an intriguing team, and the Seahawks are banged up. 

– Dolphins over Jets: A mini upset, but the Dolphins will be significantly improved.  Chad Pennington gets revenge.

– Patriots over Chiefs: The question is will Kansas City even get a first down.  This is a complete mismatch.

– Ravens over Bengals: Both teams will be bad this year.  Cincy has a potentially explosive offense, but the Ravens defense will help them pull this one out at home.

– Steelers over Texans: Houston is improving, but a rough assignment for the opener.

– Cowboys over Browns: This will be a good game, but the Cowboys pull it out on the road.

– Colts over Bears: Colts win opener at new stadium, Bears quarterback woes continue

– Jaguars over Titans: Jaguars win tough road opener in a key division game off the bat

– Broncos over Raiders: Even without Brandon Marshall, the Broncos make enough plays to win on the road

– Chargers over Panthers: No Steve Smith, no chance for Carolina.  Chargers roll at home

– Eagles over Rams: Philadelphia rolls at home against a Rams team trying to figure out its identity

– Lions over Falcons: Dud game of the week…Two bad teams square off at the Georgia Dome

– Vikings over Packers: Adrian Peterson begins spectacular season with Monday night show at Lambeau…Packers see how life will be without Favre

– Saints over Buccaneers: Saints win emotional opener at the Superdome against division rival

– 49ers over Cardinals: I’m shocked how many people are picking Arizona to win this game….Niners will be surprise team this season

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Football Thoughts

Posted by mizzou1028 on August 6, 2008

– I think the Broncos are darn lucky that Brandon Marshall wasn’t suspended for more games than the three handed down by Roger Goodell.  Considering the suspension will likely be reduced to two games after Marshall undergoes counseling, the Broncos should be thankful they aren’t losing their star receiver for half the season.  Granted, Marshall will miss two division games (at Oakland and home versus San Diego) but at least he isn’t out for a longer period of time.  Marshall is still poised to have a big year on the heals of a 102 catch season, and hopefully he has learned his lesson about toeing the line off the field.

– The Broncos have a couple of injury concerns already in camp that haven’t been discussed much.  One is center Tom Nalen, who sat out the final 11 games last season after tearing his right biceps, and is currently recovering from off-season surgery on his left knee.  Nalen will likely miss the entire preseason (let’s be honest – that’s not really important) but it doesn’t seem for sure as though he’ll be ready for the opener at Oakland.  The fact that Nalen is missing time now also begs the question as to whether he’ll be able to finish the season healthy.  Nalen is the leader of the offensive line and his absence was definitely noticeable last year.

– The other injury is to rookie running back Ryan Torian.  Torian was carried off the field this morning after being hit by Jamie Winborn and Nate Webster.  Torian suffered a broken elbow and will miss 6-8 weeks, meaning at the earliest it will be late September before he can return to action.  Even though he was selected in the fifth round, the Broncos had high hopes that Torian could become the feature back in the offense because his running style is a perfect fit for the team’s running scheme.  Torian will now miss the rest of camp and the preseason, which is more important for a rookie because he needs that period to adjust to the rigors of the NFL, plus it might actually impact Torian’s chances of making the team. 

– As far as Brett Favre is concerned, I think the Days of Our Lives theme music is appropriate here.  This has become such a circus it’s ridiculous.  At this point, if the Packers are that convinced that Aaron Rodgers is their guy and they don’t want Favre around, they should just release him.  Of course, they’re not going to do that because Favre would sign with division rival Minnesota immediately if not sooner.  It’s funny, I’m tired of hearing about Favre, but on the other hand I’m dying to see what happens next in this saga.  It has gotten to the point where it’s so crazy that it is rapidly becoming entertaining and tiresome at the same time.  Regardless of how it turns out, any Favre game against the Packers will be must see, wherever Favre ends up playing.  That is, if he ends up playing.

– It will be interesting to see how this affects Favre’s legacy.  He’s a sure fire Hall of Fame lock for sure, but will he be remembered for this drama at the end of his career?  I am intrigued to see how Favre will be recalled in ten, or even five years.

– It is also interesting how because of the Favre saga, we haven’t heard much about the other 31 teams in the league besides the Packers.  Maybe this is one of the reasons why it doesn’t quite seem like it should be time for football yet.  Of course, it is only preseason right now, so really we’re still a month away from any football that matters, but I don’t generally remember football sneaking up on me as much in previous years as it has this year.  Maybe it won’t seem that way once the Broncos have their first preseason game (or as I prefer to think of it, glorified controlled scrimmage) on Saturday night.

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Thoughts on the Broncos and Rod Smith

Posted by mizzou1028 on July 30, 2008

– What happened to the summer?  The Broncos’ first preseason game is a week from Saturday, and it doesn’t quite feel like football time yet.  Not that I’m complaining, I still get way more excited for football than all of the other sports combined. 

– The more I think about the Broncos the more optimistic I am they can at least compete for a wild card.  I really like the idea of D.J. Williams moving back to outside linebacker, for that should have more impact on defense than people may realize.  He will have more freedom to make plays than he did at middle linebacker last season, and that will have a trickle down effect on the rest of the defense.   I also like the addition of Dewayne Robertson at defensive tackle.  His presence should improve the team’s ability to stop the run and generate a pass rush, which could have the trickle down effect of more interceptions for Champ Bailey and friends in the secondary. 

– I also am convinced Jay Cutler will have his best season yet.  Keep in mind he was battling diabetes last season and didn’t know it.  This year he is better prepared to handle the situation.  He is also entering his third year in Mike Shanahan’s offense.  The offensive line will be improved by the simple fact that they are entering the season healthy, something they never were last year.  The offense really has the potential to be explosive like it hasn’t been in a couple of years.  That being said…….

– I really hope Brandon Marshall has learned his lesson.  I also hope that Roger Goodell isn’t too hard on him, even if Marshall may deserve some punishment for his off the field behavior in the past year.  Even a four game suspension would have a big impact on the Broncos, for that would cause Marshall to miss division road games at Oakland and Kansas City.  Those are both winnable games, but with Marshall out would become that much tougher to win, not to mention the Broncos would be significantly shorthanded at home against San Diego in week two.  That’s tough enough, but if Marshall is suspended for eight games, not out of the question considering how tough Goodell has been on those that don’t toe the line, than I shudder to think about where the Broncos would be before Marshall could return in November.  The amount of games Marshall is suspended (and word is it will be two at the bare minimum) could end up being the most important number for the Broncos in 2008. 

– Regardless of any suspension, the fact that Bronco great Rod Smith has taken Marshall under his wing means we shouldn’t hear about any more off the field incidents for Marshall.  Smith’s presence around Marshall and the rest of the team can only mean good things for the organization.

– Speaking of Smith, I don’t think he gets his due nationwide.  He should be a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame based on his numbers and contributions to the organization, but his name doesn’t seem to come up when talk turns to great receivers of the 90s.  Considering that only two Broncos are in the Hall of Fame (John Elway and Gary Zimmerman), it doesn’t seem as though the national voting panel will be that quick to acknowledge Smith. 

– You don’t think there is a bias against Smith nationally? Let’s compare him with Michael Irvin, who got inducted into the Hall last season in his second year of eligibility.  The only reason Irvin didn’t get in on the first ballot was because of his off the field issues.  Irvin in his career caught 750 passes for 11,904 yards and 65 touchdowns for the Cowboys.  Smith? He caught 849 passes (99 more than Irvin) for 11,383 yards and 68 touchdowns.  Both receivers played an identical 12 seasons, and while Irvin won one more Super Bowl than Smith, Irvin had the luxury of Troy Aikman throwing to him most of his career.  Smith compiled a lot of his numbers with Brian Griese and Jake Plummer throwing to him, after just four seasons with John Elway.  Considering Smith has been as clean as a Boy Scout his entire career, he should be a first ballot lock right? Or rather, he would be if he wore the jersey of an east coast team his entire career.  It will be interesting to see what actually happens when Smith is eligible for induction in five years. 

– I am convinced that the Broncos should have more guys from their past in the Hall of Fame.  It is absolutely inexcusable that the Hall doesn’t include Randy Gradishar, Floyd Little and Lionel Taylor.  I also would make a big case for Terrell Davis, who has been a finalist a couple of times, but it is fair to wonder if he played long enough.  The point is, if any of the above mentioned players played for the Giants or the Cowboys or the Redskins, they would have been in easily.  The voters say there is no bias, but it is obvious that there is one. 

– Next winter will be interesting because Shannon Sharpe will be eligible for the first time.  If he isn’t inducted immediately, they should blow up the place.  It would a real farce if the greatest tight end in the history of the game didn’t get in on the first try.

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What Are They Thinking?

Posted by mizzou1028 on July 16, 2008

Wow, what a bang up offseason so far for the Nuggets!  Not only have they done nothing to make the team better, they’ve actually gotten worse.  Last night at dinner I wasn’t sure I was seeing things correctly and was briefly wondering if I shouldn’t visit the eye doctor when I glanced at the TV on the other side of the restaurant.  Was that a headshot of Marcus Camby with the Clippers logo behind it?  Couldn’t have been, he’s not a free agent.  Before the idea of Camby as a Clipper sunk in, I saw the next graphic showing details of a trade: Clippers get Marcus Camby.  Nuggets get a second round pick in 2010.  What???  Not only that, but later i find the Nuggets simply got the rights to swap second round picks with the Clippers in 2010, they didn’t even get an extra pick!  This after the team already lost Eduardo Najera to New Jersey in free agency. 

So let me get this straight: a team that has been awful on defense gave away its one consistent good defender in Camby for essentially nothing.  They have also lost one of the few players on the team in Najera that consistently hustled and provided energy on the court.  It is obvious the team made this deal purely for financial reasons to try and avoid paying the luxury tax.  I get why they wouldn’t want to pay that for the results they’ve been garnering, but it is appalling that there don’t appear to be plans (at least at this point) to try and make the team any better.  It appears as though they are throwing away the 2008-09 season in hopes of trying to clear cap room and reshape the team for the following year.  While perhaps a sound strategy in the long run, it still doesn’t make any sense to get NOTHING in exchange for Camby.  This is a team that already has not achieved, losing in the first round for five straight years.  Instead of trying to make the team better, the Nuggets are worse today than they were they day they lost their final playoff game to the Lakers in early May.  I suppose you could say (and unfortunately it’s not a joke) that the team defense can be just as bad without Camby in the middle as it was with him, but I shudder to think of just how bad it will be without Camby’s shot blocking ability covering up for the lazy effort of Anthony and Iverson on the defensive end. 

The Nuggets are fooling themselves if they think they are among the elite in the Western Conference.  With the improvements made by the Warriors and Clippers this offseason, plus the potential emergence of other young teams, the Nuggets are squarely so far behind the elite of the conference they can’t even see their taillights.  Perhaps they’re trying to ride out the last year of Iverson’s contract to try and clear cap room to make a run next offseason.  Maybe I should give them the benefit of the doubt and see if there is something coming this offseason I’m unaware of.  Based on the track record though, it certainly doesn’t seem likely that any improvement for the team is coming this offseason.  Between management’s lack of effort in the offseason and leftover fallout from the referee scandal, I am continuing to sour more and more on the NBA.  Point is, I’m not planning to waste money on tickets anytime soon.  If the team isn’t going to try to improve, why should I finance the product on the court?

Speaking of which the call I got this morning was very comical: It was from a representative of the Nuggets front office asking if I was interested in purchasing advance tickets for the coming season.  Seriously, you give away a key player for nothing while simultaneously making a call asking me to buy tickets????  You have got to be kidding me.  There is about as much chance of me buying tickets to see the Nuggets this winter as there is the team winning a playoff series.  That is to say a zero percent chance.  That is, unless something dramatic happens to where the team actually has a semblance of a chance of putting together a solid product on the court.

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Home Runs and All Stars

Posted by mizzou1028 on July 15, 2008

I have to give a tip of the cap to Josh Hamilton for his performance last night in the Home Run Derby.  I have generally thought in recent years the event has lost some of its luster compared to what it was in the late 90s, but last night Hamilton had me hooked.  It wasn’t just his 28 home runs in the first round, it wasn’t just that he set a single round record, it was the way it was happening.  Three of his blasts were over 500 feet, and as each home run was hit the event became more of the spectacle I used to remember.  The way the Yankee Stadium crowd was behind him only added to the aura. 

Watching Hamilton last night brought back memories of the Home Run Derby I was fortunate to attend at Coors Field in 1998.  At that time the big names would all participate, great home run hitters like Griffey and McGwire.  That was of course the season Mark McGwire hit 70 home runs, and while his derby performance was unimpressive overall (four home runs and a quick first round exit, although one was over 500 feet) it was the workout portion of the day that stood out for me.  I remember standing on the walkway above the left field bleachers amongst a packed crowd, watching McGwire and others hit ball after ball up onto and beyond the walkway.  I remember balls hitting off the scoreboard, flying into concession stands, one clearing the wall entirely into the parking lot beyond.  Perhaps most vividly and even comically, I remember seeing a full cup of beer fly into the air while a fan tried to catch one of the balls (he didn’t).  For a variety of seasons it seemed as though the event had started to decline in popularity and excitement.  Maybe it was because we were disgusted that steroids likely played a role in the colossal blasts of the late 90s and early 2000s, perhaps it was because more and more often the biggest stars would back out (see Alex Rodriguez last night in front of his home fans no less).  Hamilton’s effort last night reminded me of that day because for the first time in several years of Home Run Derbys there seemed to be something to get excited about.  It seemed as the participants were actually into the event and truly were enjoying being involved, actually giving the crowd their moneys worth.  Perhaps the only unfortunate thing was that Hamilton didn’t win, losing to the Twins’ Justin Morneau in the finals perhaps due to fatigue from his first round show.  It turns out this event did not need A-Rod, and maybe it was he who missed out by declining participation in his home ballpark.

The Home Run Derby is of course a prelude to the All-Star Game, which will take place tonight.  It will of course be the final one at fabled Yankee Stadium, so that adds to the lure of the game.  There is a certain amount of irony that the American League will be managed by Terry Francona of the hated Red Sox, a reward for Boston winning the World Series last year, and that three members of the hated Red Sox will be in the starting lineup for the “home” American League.  It is also somewhat ironic that the NL will be managed by the Rockies’ Clint Hurdle, by virtue of the Rockies’ World Series appearance last year.  As bad a season as the Rockies have had, it seems somewhat odd to see Hurdle managing the National League in this event.  Regardless of this, the MLB All-Star Game is clearly the best in sports.  It is the only one where the players actually seem interested in winning the game, quite the contrast to the Pro Bowl where everyone wants to be selected to the game but no one wants to play.  The players will play hard, unlike the NBA where defense is optional anyway especially in an  all-star game, and unlike the NHL where the midseason exhibition has more scoring but lacks the hitting and physical play.  While I’m not exactly a fan of the World Series being influenced by an exhibition (the league that wins tonight will have home field advantage for the World Series), it definitely adds to the event that both teams will try to win. 

As a side note, I am intrigued by tonight’s starting pitchers, the Indians’ Cliff Lee for the AL and Milwaukee’s Ben Sheets for the NL.  If I was making the pick, I think it should be the Blue Jays’ Roy Halladay for the AL and San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum for the NL.  Of course, every pitcher that has been selected to the game is worthy of being there, and it is hard to argue against Lee or Sheets.  I am just hoping the National League can actually win one of these: the AL has won every one of these since 1996, not including the infamous tie in 2002.  Regardless, the MLB All-Star Game is always a fun event and a must see.

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Favre or no Favre?

Posted by mizzou1028 on July 9, 2008

I don’t know any more about the nuances of the rumors surrounding a possible return to the NFL by Brett Favre than the man in the moon.  I don’t know if Favre is really feeling the itch to return just months after an emotional retirement press conference, or if this is just being fueled by the media to fill up time when they have nothing else to talk about.  I don’t know what Packers management is thinking on this.  What I do know is that if Favre does want to return, and the Packers say no thanks, than they had better be prepared for it to backfire.  There is not a good track record in NFL history for replacing legend quarterbacks.  In fact, it is about as close to guarantee for failure as there is in the sport.  Nothing against Aaron Rodgers, who played well against Dallas last year when Favre was injured, but if the Packers really think they’re better off with Rodgers than they would be if Favre came back, they are probably in trouble.

The list of quarterbacks that have tried to follow legends in NFL history is a rather dubious one.  By the nature of it, trying to follow a Hall of Famer is not an easy task anyway, particularly when a young signal caller is trying to replace a guy who’s an icon, like Favre is in Green Bay.  Terry Bradshaw won four Super Bowls in the 1970s with Pittsburgh, but it wasn’t until Ben Roethlisberger in 2005 that the Steelers really had any stability at the position after Bradshaw’s retirement.  Bradshaw was followed by among others Cliff Stoudt, Mark Malone, David Woodley, Scott Campbell, Bubby Brister, Neil O’Donnell and Kordell Stewart.  The Steelers had a number of good teams between Bradshaw’s retirement and their Super Bowl win in ’05, even making the Super Bowl in 1995 with O’Donnell, but all of those guys had to play in Bradshaw’s shadow.  How about guys who have followed John Elway in Denver?  Try Brian Griese, Gus Frerotte and Jake Plummer.  The Broncos went 6-10 in 1999 the first year without Elway, and this was with a team that won back to back Super Bowls in ’97 and ’98.  There is no doubt that the Broncos would not have been near that bad in ’99 if Elway had returned to play for another season.  As a side note, you could even make the argument (however thin) that Terrell Davis never would have torn his ACL had Elway returned.  See, that happened on a play where Griese threw an interception into double coverage that Elway never would have thrown, and Davis got injured trying to make the tackle.  How about the Miami Dolphins post Marino?  Again you’ll find Brian Griese’s name among the replacements, and actually Frerotte’s as well, in addition to Jay Fiedler, Damon Huard, Joey Harrington, Cleo Lemon, A.J. Feeley and Sage Rosenfels.  Miami STILL has no stability at QB since Dan Marino retired in 1999.  There is no doubt that Miami fans would have gladly taken one more season with Marino at the helm in 2000, if nothing else for one more shot at a run before the inevitable rebuilding process.

The point of all this is not to say that Aaron Rodgers will fail.  Truth is, we have no idea how he will do.  It is reasonable to say however that being quarterback of the Packers for a full season is quite different than coming in as an injury replacement for one game.  The point is that if the Packers are that fast to say goodbye to Favre, and are ready to take their chances with Rodgers, they should be prepared for the team to struggle.  In fact, history shows they are likely to miss the playoffs with Rodgers at quarterback based on the track record of teams the season following the retirement of a legend quarterback, particularly when that quarterback is the face of the franchise.  If Favre wants to come back and play one more season, the Packers should welcome him back with open arms, period.  Favre had one of his best seasons last year, and there is no reason to think he can’t still play at a high level if he wants to.  Can you imagine Mike Shanahan in 1999 if Elway said he wanted to return a week before camp, even in the wake of his retirement press conference?  Can you imagine Shanahan telling Elway, “no I think we’re set with Brian Griese, thanks”?  Me neither.

Whether Favre actually plays this season or not will be interesting to see.  It will more interesting if he wants to play and the Packers wave him off.  If that were the case, the Packers would have to either release him, allowing him to play for another team, or they would have to trade him, neither of which would be an easy pill to swallow for Green Bay fans.  If the thought of Favre in another uniform makes a Packer fan want to throw up, than imagine Favre playing for arguably the one contending team that is missing a quarterback.  The one team in the league that is set at pretty much every position except for quarterback.  A team that made a big splash in the offseason bringing in Jared Allen (arguably the league’s top defensive lineman) and a good receiver in Bernard Berrian.  A team with one of the NFL’s top rushing attacks and a team that in recent years has been amazingly stingy defensively against the run.  A team who’s current top QB is very young, inexperienced, and could use a year under Favre.  A team that as currently constructed has been picked to win the Super Bowl by Sports Illustrated’s Paul Zimmerman.  That would be the Minnesota Vikings, prime division rival of the Packers.  If the Packers are that sure they would rather take their chances with Aaron Rodgers, they should envision this scenario: Week one, Monday night at Lambeau Field, Packers-Vikings, Favre coming out of the tunnel in Vikings purple.  It should be enough to make any Packer fan want to throw up.  That is, until they envision Favre holding the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season in a Vikings hat, after the Packers have suffered through a 6-10 season under Rodgers.

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