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Posts Tagged ‘Denver Broncos’

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Can This Even Be Fixed?

Posted by mizzou1028 on October 21, 2008

I can sit here and look at the standings after week seven and say that the Broncos are 4-3, that they are still in first place in the AFC West, and they would be in easy playoff position if the season ended right now.  That seems impossible right now after the trouncing they got tonight at the hands of the Patriots of all teams.  Did the Broncos really allow Sammy Morris to rush for 100 yards IN THE FIRST QUARTER?  The same Sammy Morris who had ran for a high of 63 yards (and just 169 all season) in a game all year?  The same Sammy Morris who averaged 3.2 yards a carry coming into tonight’s game and saw it balloon to a beyond ghastly 8.6 yards a carry against Denver?  Heck, even BenJarvus Green-Ellis (yes that is a real player), who I had literally never heard of before tonight, rushed for 65 yards on 13 carries, to the tune of five yards a carry. Was this the same Patriots running game that managed just 106 yards as a team the week before against San Diego?  The answer for the Broncos is unfortunately yes (More on the awful Broncos run defense below).  

To watch the Broncos the last month makes you scratch your head and wonder how they’re in first place.  Tonight they committed FIVE turnovers to New England’s zero.  I don’t care if you’re the ’72 Dolphins going against North Dakota Tech, if you turn it over five times on the road, including your first two possessions, your odds of winning are never good.  Say what you will, but the Broncos were moving the ball great on their first possession until Andre Hall fumbled.  If they score on that drive to take a 7-0 lead instead of turning it over, the entire game would have likely unfolded very differently.  But Hall’s fumble sucked the air out of the Broncos’ offense, and if that one didn’t his second one on the next position definitely did.  Of all the stats in sports, and a lot of them are certainly without much value in relation to the final score, the one stat that almost always translates into wins and losses, regardless of sport, is turnovers.  It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that the Broncos have lost the turnover battle handily in each of their three losses this year, and losing it 5-0 to the Patriots explains away much of the blowout loss right there.  

While the turnovers are obviously a huge factor in the Broncos’ recent struggles, the complete lack of a run defense this year is almost more alarming.  This season the Broncos have already allowed:

– 97 yards rushing to the Raiders’ Justin Fargas in week one, easily a season high for the Raiders back that is rapidly losing playing time to Darren McFadden and has seen his yards per carry decline dramatically each week.  Fargas’ 42 yard run against Denver is by far his longest of the season.  

– 53 yards on just seven carries to San Diego’s Darren Sproles in week two (in addition to a 66 yard touchdown on a screen pass that essentially amounted to a run).  Sproles has made at best cameo appearances for the Chargers since then (140 total rushing yards on the season), and in his last game against the Bills had just one yard rushing and five yards receiving.  

– 198 yards (to the tune of 7.1 yards per carry) to the Chiefs’ Larry Johnson in week four (including a 65 yard run on the game’s second play).  Johnson has been noticeably absent in KC since then, rushing for two yards on seven carries at Carolina and then getting himself suspended by the Chiefs for his off the field activity.  

– 125 yards to Maurice Jones-Drew in week six, including a back breaking 46 yard TD run to break the game open.  This came after he was held to just 7 yards the week before against Pittsburgh, and had been held to 32 or less in three other games.  Not to mention that Jones-Drew’s performance against the Broncos came behind a banged up offensive line that featured two backups.  

– The aforementioned monster game (well, half) from Sammy Morris, who finished with 138 yards despite only playing the first half.  Morris’ previous season high was 63 yards for an entire game, which he easily eclipsed against Denver in the first quarter alone.  Morris had been held to 26 yards on 10 carries the week before against San Diego, and he only needed 16 carries to destroy the Broncos.  Morris actually had three games of 27 yards rushing or less coming into the Denver game (including week two at the Jets where he had ZERO yards on 8 carries).

Right now I am absolutely petrified of the remaining backs on Denver’s schedule: Ronnie Brown, Jamal Lewis, Michael Turner, Darren McFadden (as faster and better version of teammate Fargas), Thomas Jones, Larry Johnson again (assuming he isn’t still suspended), the DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart combo in Carolina, Marshawn Lynch, and LaDainian Tomlinson (and probably Sproles) in the final game.  The point here is the Broncos have allowed more rushing yards (1,082) than any team except Kansas City, and they are allowing opponents to average 5.4 yards per carry.  That is simply not acceptable.  In order to even have a chance to be a good defense in the National Football League, you must be able to stop the run.  If you can’t, anything else you might have going for you on that side of the ball is completely irrelevant.  Case in point: the Broncos actually sacked Matt Cassel six times tonight, but did it really do them any good?  It doesn’t matter if you can rush the passer or if you have great corners if you are not able to stop the run.  It is easy to complain for example that the Broncos only have two interceptions for the season, but that number is partially a result of the team’s failure to stop the run.  Why would any offensive coordinator throw in Champ Bailey’s direction when he knows he can chew up yards the easy way on the ground?  Overall, the Broncos are 30th in the league in total yards per game (ahead of only the Chiefs and Lions), allowing close to 400 yards per contest.  Do those look like the numbers of a contending team?  Frankly they look like the numbers of a last place team.  Heck, even the horrible Cincinnati Bengals are better than Denver in both total defense (331 yards per game) and run defense (allowing 4.4 yards per carry – a full yard less than Denver).

If the Broncos want to go back to the playoffs this year, it is imperative that they shore up their porous run defense.  If that doesn’t improve, the Broncos’ second half prospects look very gloomy indeed.  Yes, they currently sit 4-3 and are in the AFC West lead, but there is no way that will last with a run defense this bad.  Even though the offense is not blameless in relation to their turnovers, they can’t be expected to score 40 points every week to win a game even if they hang onto the ball.  Then again, the offense surely has to feel the pressure to carry the team the way the defense has performed this season.  The bye is coming at a good time for the Broncos, and perhaps they can use it to regroup.  Despite all this, as mediocre as the AFC West is this year, I still think they can overtake San Diego for the division title.  This team still has talent and potential, and if the NFL has taught us anything, it’s that things do change week to week.  This can be fixed, even if it won’t be easy, and even if it seems impossible after the embarrassment in Foxboro.  One thing to keep in mind as a final thought: Mike Shanahan has never missed the playoffs three straight seasons in his career, and that is enough to keep me optimistic about the remainder of the season.

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Now the Road Gets Rockier….

Posted by mizzou1028 on October 7, 2008

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” –  George Santayana, The Life of Reason or The Phases of Human Progress: Reason in Common Sense 284

If you had told me before the start of the season that the Broncos would be 4-1 and would own a two game lead in the AFC West through five games, I would have first thought that you were crazy, but I also would have taken that in a heartbeat no questions asked.  Well here we are five games into the season, and the Broncos are possession of said two game lead in the division.  Granted, the one loss was an embrassing one to a bad Kansas City team, but the Broncos did bounce back with a terrific defensive effort against an underrated Tampa Bay team.  The Broncos finally got excellent pressure on the quarterback, first on Brian Griese and later on Jeff Garcia, and the defense gave a much better effort against the run.  Granted, that isn’t saying much after they got shredded by Larry Johnson, but the defense showed it is capable if need be of carrying the team on a day the offense may not be on its top game.  While this is all great, it is only a start, nothing more. 

The optimistic side of me is definitely excited about the 4-1 start.  Generally speaking, a good start can lead to a good finish.  The other side of me says that we’ve been down this road before, only to see the Broncos not finish the way they started.  Two years ago in 2006, the Broncos actually started 4-1, and later were 7-2, before finishing 9-7 and missing the playoffs.  In 2004, the Broncos started 5-1, ended up 10-6, and lost a wild card game to the Colts.  The year before in 2003, the Broncos started 5-1, finished 10-6, and lost a wild card game to the Colts. (No I did not accidently retype the sentence, ’03 and ’04 were identical in that regard in Bronco land.)  Or we could even take 2002, which saw the Broncos start 4-1, and later 6-2, and miss the playoffs with a 9-7 record.  The one recent exception was 2005, when the Broncos did successfully parlay a 5-1 start into a 13-3 record and an AFC Championship Game appearance.  The point is, yes the Broncos have gotten off to a good start, but that’s all it means.  It is important that the Broncos do not repeat their second half failures of this decade.  There is a lot of season to go, and the Broncos will need to keep playing at a high level to maintain their position in the AFC West.

One thing about the NFL is the outlook of any team can really vary radically from week to week.  It is also true that a team’s perceived strength of schedule can vary even more wildly from week to week.  Are you playing a team when they’re on fire?  Are you catching them while injury riddled?  Are you playing a team from the other conference in between two division games?  There are so many x factors in the NFL schedule that make it really difficult at best to determine exactly how hard or easy a team’s remaining schedule will be.  Right now though, it certainly looks like the Broncos’ schedule is about to get tougher.    The Broncos face Jacksonville at home on Sunday, a team that has traditionally given them trouble and will be desperate after last week’s loss to Pittsburgh.  Then the Broncos are at New England in a Monday nighter before the bye.  The Broncos also have trips to Atlanta, Carolina, and the Jets that could all be potentially difficult, plus what is shaping up to be a monster home game in December against Buffalo.  Even the home game against Miami suddenly doesn’t look the gimmie it appeared to be a month ago.  Of course, all of this could easily change next week, but the point is while the Broncos are off to a great start and have beaten good teams so far, they must continue to play well and stay focused if they want to keep pace with the other top teams in the league. 

Injuries of course also have a huge impact, and the Broncos will be without top receiving threats Eddie Royal AND Tony Scheffler on Sunday against the Jaguars, and possibly beyond.  Both players left Invesco Field on crutches after the Tampa Bay game, Royal having suffered an ankle injury and Scheffler a groin injury.  For Jay Cutler to lose two key receiving targets simultaneously could be awfully tough to overcome.  Factor in that Selvin Young also got banged up against Tampa and may miss next week, and the Broncos find themselves really shorthanded against a Jaguars defense that loves to be physical and play a tight, low scoring game like what the Broncos saw last week.  The Broncos do still have a lot going for them, and will need guys like Brandon Stokley and Michael Pittman to step up and play well. 

This is not meant to be doom and gloom and be pessimistic about the Broncos’ prospects the rest of the season, but rather to caution about getting too carried away just yet.  The Broncos have gotten off to a fast start and that’s important.  It’s also important that they keep it up.  Keep in mind the Broncos were 8-0 at home in 2005 when they made the AFC Championship Game.  They are 3-0 at home so far this year, and have another important home game on Sunday.  As long as the Broncos take Jacksonville seriously they should be fine, but they can’t afford letdowns like what they had in Kansas City.  There is a lot of season left, and the Broncos do have the tools to build on their fast start, but that’s all it is right now: a start.  The Broncos had better hope this season turns out more along the lines of 2005 and the late 90s, and not 2002, 2004, or 2006.

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Clearly I Was Drinking the Kool-Aid……

Posted by mizzou1028 on September 29, 2008

Now on to the picks, where in the theme of unpredictability I start with a real shocker: a winless team will break out this week and beat an undefeated team.

Okay, so maybe I was half right.  I did predict that a winless team would beat an undefeated team today in the NFL.  Problem is, I picked the wrong one.  I really thought the Rams would be the winless team to break out, and that the Bills were the team in danger of falling into a trap.  Instead, it was my Denver Broncos of all teams that were at the wrong end of the biggest shocker of the day: a 33-19 loss to league doormat Kansas City. This came as such a shock to me that I am now out of my eliminator pool.  Maybe I was looking at the game through orange colored glasses, but I could not come up with a scenario where this Chiefs team would be able to beat the Broncos, even at Arrowhead.  This was the Chiefs’ first win in nearly a year, dating back to October 21 of last year.  How was I supposed to expect Kansas City to score more points today than they had in their first three games combined?  The answer to that question is maybe the Broncos defense really is that bad, in which case they have a problem.  Larry Johnson nearly had 200 yards on the ground, including a 65 yard jaunt on the second play of the game.  Johnson is of course a Pro Bowl back, one of the best, but he is running behind an offensive line that is a mess.  If there was ever a game for Denver’s defense to get back on track, it should have been this one.  Then again, it may seem strange to say this after they surrendered 33 points and 6.5 yards per carry to the Chiefs, but it was really the defense that managed to keep the Broncos in the game.  Consider:

– The Broncos held the Chiefs to a field goal after the aforementioned scamper by Johnson on the first possession of the game.  The Broncos proceeded to hold the Chiefs to another field goal after a quick fumble gave KC the ball at the Denver 26.

– The Chiefs’ average starting field position was the 46 yard line, which does not speak well for the special teams (more on that in a moment).  Even a mediocre offense (like the Chiefs) doesn’t need to do much to get a minimum three points with that kind of starting field position.

– One of Kansas City’s touchdowns came after a fumble recovery allowed them to start at the 2-yard line for a gimmie touchdown.  That is not on the defense.  

– The Broncos held the Chiefs’ to a 5-of-13 conversion rate on third down, and Kansas City only converted 1 of 4 in the second half.  

– Despite four Denver turnovers on the road, they were an onside kick recovery away from being in position to drive for the tying score from midfield with plenty of time on the clock.

Are you sensing a theme here yet?  The Broncos’ defense, while giving up gaudy numbers, actually dug in and kept the score closer than maybe it should have been.  The Broncos offense was guilty of four turnovers, including two that came right after the team actually started to build momentum.  Any team that commits four turnovers on the road will never win, period, even against a so-called bad team.  The Broncos’ turnovers gave Kansas City progressively more and more confidence, and the Chiefs’ were able to feed off their crowd.  Even if the fans aren’t buying tickets they way they used to there, the ones that show up still cause noise and havoc for visitors.  The Chiefs were able to feed off that with each turnover the Broncos’ offense committed.  

The Broncos were also guilty of red-zone inefficiency.  Denver ended up with no points on a 28-yard missed field goal near the end of the first half (to be fair, Matt Prater drilled two 50-yarders later in the game, so this is not on him).  The Broncos also couldn’t covert from the four yard line in the fourth quarter when they had a chance to cut the game to three.  To be a good offense in the NFL, you need to convert in the red zone.  Coach Mike Shanahan said in the postgame the Broncos were only one of four in the red zone today.  That will never get it done, especially on the road.

The special teams was atrocious once again.  The Broncos allowed countless Kansas City kick returns that set the Chiefs up in excellent field position.  This was a major issue last year and has continued to be a problem the Broncos have been able to get around until today.  It didn’t help that the turnovers also gave the Chiefs’ continued excellent field position, but those two things combined are never a good recipe for success.

This is not to say the defense was faultless at all.  Obviously they need to do a better job stopping the run.  Despite their efforts to keep the team in the game, the 65-yard run by Johnson really set the tone and gave the Chiefs’ confidence they didn’t have coming in.  The front four still has yet to put any pressure on any quarterback they’ve faced in the early going this season, and that’s a problem too.  The secondary has had issues, the chief one being that Champ Bailey does not have a chance to make plays when opponents keep throwing at the other cornerbacks, all of whom happen to be struggling at the moment.

This game proved that every game is unpredictable and you can never truly know how any game is going to unfold, no matter how clear it seems on paper.  The Dallas Cowboys joined the Broncos as surprise losers today, in a home game where they were a double digit favorite.  Three of the top four college teams lost this weekend (USC, Georgia, and Florida).  The important thing for the Broncos to remember is they are 3-1 at the quarter mark of the season.  Last year they were 2-2 at this point, so already there is overall improvement.  One game does not make a season for sure.  The Broncos still have the look of a good team, but perhaps today’s game was a much needed lesson for a young team about life in the NFL.

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This Actually Feels Possible….

Posted by mizzou1028 on September 22, 2008

The Broncos are 3-0.  They lead the AFC West by two games.  Their offense is a machine, averaging 38 points a game, on pace to break the season scoring record set by New England last year.  Jay Cutler has thrown for 914 yards and 8 touchdowns in three games, while his top target Brandon Marshall, is on pace to break Jerry Rice’s record for receiving yards in a single season.  That even takes into account Marshall missing week one due to suspension.  As he continues to put up huge numbers, the other receiving targets will become even more dangerous.  The Broncos have also shown they can run the ball, even if it’s not the primary mode of attack.  Selvin Young averaged 5.9 yards on 11 carries yesterday, forcing the Saints to respect the run enough that the Broncos’ pass attack could be even more dangerous.  The Broncos offense has been by far the best in the league through the first three weeks of the season, and that alone makes them a real threat to do damage all year, perhaps a season earlier than expected with everyone so young.  For the Broncos to truly go where they want to go though, their defense has got to get better. 

The Broncos blew a 21-3 second quarter lead for the second straight week.  They gave up 502 yards of total offense to the Saints, including 414 through the air by Drew Brees.  They continued to give up big plays in the passing game, including a 74 yard pass to Robert Meachem to set up a Saints score.  They allowed the Saints to convert 8 of 14 third down attempts.  The fact they gave up 30 points for the second straight game is a red flag as well.  Considering these ominous signs on the defensive side of the ball, it’s easy to forget the Broncos are 3-0, and they have found a way to win these high scoring shootouts.

Consider that the Broncos won yesterday despite not scoring a point in the fourth quarter.  Yes, the defense gave up huge numbers but they did make plays when they needed to.  The defense scored a second quarter touchdown on a Nate Webster fumble return TD.  They came up with a stop on fourth and goal at the end of the first half.  They came up with a critical pass deflection on a two point conversion try that would have tied the score at 34 with ten minutes to play.  They came up with a stop on 3rd and 1 late to force what ultimately became Martin Gramatica’s missed field goal.  D.J. Williams actually seems to be on his way to a Pro Bowl season, having posted 16 tackles yesterday. 

There does seem to be enough talent on the defensive side of the ball that one can be optimistic improvement will be shown.  Keep in mind with the Broncos offense clicking on all cylinders, the defense doesn’t need to be spectacular, it just needs to be above average.  Or to put it another way, they need to be able to dig deep to come up with a big play when needed.  The Broncos know they have the offense that can score in bunches, particularly with a franchise quarterback and a star receiver leading the way.  They also know they have talent on defense.  The balance of power has shifted in the AFC with the Broncos joining the Titans, Bills and Ravens as the early division leaders.  (If ANYONE had those four teams leading their divisions at any point this season, than I’m Fred Flinstone).  The Broncos know they have a chance to do something special this season, and suddenly their season schedule doesn’t seem so daunting. 

As a side note, I can’t think of any other time in Broncos history where they were a 10 point favorite at Arrowhead Stadium, as they are for Sunday’s game.  Not only that, I’m wondering if it’s worth catching a weekend fare to Vegas, just so I can bet the farm the Broncos will cover, because I know the Broncos will put at least 30 points on the board, and even as suspect as the defense has been, they’ll at least be facing a Chiefs offense that couldn’t put 30 points on the board if 11 random fans were selected out of the stands to play defense.  If the Chiefs offense does in fact light up the Broncos D, than I will officially start to get concerned.

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WOW!

Posted by mizzou1028 on September 15, 2008

I still can’t believe that game.  The fact that the Broncos own a 2-0 record and just beat the defending division champs is the tip of the iceberg.  Where to begin?  Is the story the big numbers put up by the offense?  Even at that, is the focus on a career passing day for Jay Cutler, a franchise record for receptions in a game by Brandon Marshall, or the clutch play of Eddie Royal?  Is it the clutch drive at the end of game, culminating in a wild two point conversion to take the lead?  Is the story the officiating crew of Ed Hochuli giving the Broncos a huge break in the game’s final 90 seconds?  The answer is probably some combination of the above, all winding together to result in one of the most exciting finishes in Broncos history. 

Mike Shanahan certainly showed a lot of gusto going for the two point conversion and the win, and on the top of that running the exact same playused to score the touchdown.  It’s extremely rare that a coach will elect to roll the dice with a two point play as opposed to kicking the extra point and playing for overtime.  This is the kind of out of the box thinking that made Shanahan a great coach in the first place.  He is telling his team with that decision that he is going for it this year.  He is telling them that he believes this offense can get the job done.  He has confidence that his team can get three tough yards and convert the two point play with the game on the line.  This could very well end up paying more dividends than just a two point conversion to win a game.  This could have a positive impact on the entire season, giving the offense confidence that they can get the job done, even in adverse circumstances. 

The Broncos’ offense through two games is averaging 40 points a game, which is obviously phenomenal.   Even in the Super Bowl championship years, the offense never consistently lit it up to quite that degree.  This might actually be the first year of the Mike Shanahan era where the running game isn’t the primary focus of the offense.  If the first two games are any indication, the Broncos are really opening it up this year.  Jay Cutler seems extremely confident in his third year, completing 70 percent of his passes through two games for 650 yards, 6 touchdowns and only 1 pick.  Brandon Marshall shattered the team’s single game reception record yesterday with 18 grabs against the Chargers.  Eddie Royal is looking a star through two games in the other wide receiver spot.  Tony Scheffler is evoking memories of Shannon Sharpe at the tight end position.  It is clear that passing seems to be the Broncos’ primary mode of attack this year.  They did get good hard running yesterday from Andre Hall and Selvin Young, and I still think Ryan Torian will be in the picture somewhere when he returns from injury, but this could be the first Mike Shanahan team not to be focused primarily on running the ball.  Regardless, this is one of the best offenses in football in the early going.

The defense and special teams on the other hand has some serious issues.  Darren Sproles alone carved the Broncos up yesterday for a 102 yard kickoff return touchdown and a 66-yard touchdown reception.  Granted, Sproles is a heck of a player, and on both of those plays he had more than enough speed to blow by everyone.  That aside, giving up big plays were the Broncos’ biggest Achilles heel last season, and early on it seems like it could be rearing its ugly head again.  In some ways it’s hard to get a good read on the Broncos performance when you see they held LaDainian Tomlinson to 26 yards on 10 carries.  A closer look though reveals that Tomlinson played with a bum toe, and Sproles rushed for 7.6 yards a carry in addition to his two big scoring plays.  The Broncos also gave up a 48-yard touchdown pass to Chris Chambers and watched their defense give up scores on FIVE consecutive possessions.  If the Broncos want to be an elite team in the league, they need to shore that up in a hurry.  Even next week’s game against the Saints poses a big challenge with threats like Reggie Bush, so the defense will definitely need to get better.

A quick thought on the Jay Cutler fumble that was ruled incomplete in the waning moments: yes, it did look a fumble to me.  That being said, Ed Hochuli did the only thing he could do given the rules.  Since the whistle had blown, he couldn’t give the ball to San Diego.  The Chargers probably should be upset about the ruling, but they still had an opportunity to stop the Broncos on fourth down, and on the two point conversion.  Even after that, they still had time for a quick drive to get in field goal range.  The Broncos should not apologize for winning this game, and if the Chargers believe they were wronged, they should have sucked it up and made a stop.  Since they didn’t do that, the Broncos have nothing to apologize about.

The bottom line is the Broncos are 2-0, and are in sole possession of first place in the AFC West.  Thing is, they were in the exact same position a year ago, so nothing is assured yet by any means.  The Giants started 0-2 last year and won the Super Bowl, so everything should be taken with a grain of salt.  I do think this year definitely has a more positive vibe overall for the Broncos than last year, and it certainly looks like they will definitely be playing into January this season if their current play keeps up.

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Week Two Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on September 12, 2008

This NFL season is certainly shaping up to be very intriguing on a number of fronts.  Could we possibly have a playoffs that doesn’t include New England OR Indianapolis?  It could be possible if Matt Cassel proves to be no Tom Brady and the Colts take too long to get it together after their disastrous week one effort.  Are the Jets the new favorite in the AFC East, or is Buffalo for real?  Are the Steelers ever going to get their due for being consistently good?  Is the Bears defense back to the level of two years ago?  Who is going to win the awful NFC West?  It’s only one week into the season, and a number of my season picks are threatening to blow up in my face already.  I keep telling myself it’s still early, but it is possible that my AFC Super Bowl pick may not be all its cracked up to be. I still think Jacksonville’s defense will not allow them to be a disappointment.  Was I nuts to pick the 49ers to win the NFC West?  I still maintain they’ll be a surprise by the end of the year.  Was I drinking the Kool-Aid on the Minnesota hype?  I still think they have a team that is scary talented.  Am I underestimating Aaron Rodgers? I have to admit he looked very good in week one.  We’ll see if he can maintain it over the long haul.  Are the Chargers in trouble without Shawne Merriman?  Or is that wishful thinking on my part?.  It did seem like someone forgot to tell them the season started for three quarters against Carolina.  Speaking of the Panthers, are they once again a contender in the NFC? That offense could really come alive when Steve Smith returns from suspension in week three.  How praytell did the Falcons win a game, let alone dominate? I reserve judgement until I see them against someone other than Detroit.  

At least I got a few things right in week one.  The Cowboys dominated on the road.  The Browns looked lost and confused.  The Giants looked dominant like you would expect a defending champ to be.  The Bengals REALLY stink, or did you see Joe Flacco score on a 38-yard touchdown run while jogging through the Bengals defense? The Seahawks looked horrible on the road.  Brett Favre can still play a little.  Donovan McNabb looks poised for a big season.  The Raiders are a mess akin to Days of Our Lives as usual.  The Broncos offense could be scary good.  Or maybe that’s wishful thinking.  Perhaps that was more the Raiders are awful.  

One thing I know, this could be a season unlike any other.  Or maybe it will be just like any other.  For 11 consecutive seasons, there have been at least five teams in the playoffs who did not qualify the previous year.  With the exception of the 2006 Seahawks, the Super Bowl loser has missed the playoffs every year since 2000.  Even at that the Seahawks only made it past the first round the next year thanks to Tony Romo’s butterfingers.  Here are the numbers:

2000 New York Giants – Lost Super Bowl XXXV
2001 New York Giants – 7-9 record, no playoffs

2001 St. Louis Rams – Lost Super Bowl XXXVI
2002 St. Louis Rams – 7-9 record, no playoffs

2002 Oakland Raiders – Lost Super Bowl XXXVII
2003 Oakland Raiders – 4-12 record, no playoffs

2003 Carolina Panthers – Lost Super Bowl XXXVIII
2004 Carolina Panthers – 7-9 record, no playoffs

2004 Philadelphia Eagles – Lost Super Bowl XXXIX
2005 Philadelphia Eagles – 6-10 record, no playoffs

2005 Seattle Seahawks – Lost Super Bowl XL
2006 Seattle Seahawks – 9-7 record (made playoffs, 2nd round exit)

2006 Chicago Bears – Lost Super Bowl XLI
2007 Chicago Bears – 7-9 record, no playoffs

2007 New England Patriots – Lost Super Bowl XLII
2008 New England Patriots – ??????

This does not bode well for the Patriots in light of Tom Brady’s injury.  I know, I picked the Patriots to return to the AFC title game, but I also said they were done if Brady went down.  It will be interesting to see if the Patriots continue the trend of Super Bowl losers struggling the next year.  On one hand, it is hard a fathom a team threatening history one year and missing the playoffs the next year.  On the other hand, the Patriots missing the playoffs this year would be right in line with what the NFL is about much of the time. I still shudder when I think of the Broncos going 6-10 in 1999 after winning back to back Super Bowls and being favored to compete for a third.  After all there is the old cliche “On any given Sunday……”   Now on to the picks.

Last Week: 9-7

– Jaguars over Bills: I have to admit I really struggled with this one.  The Bills dominated Seattle last week, and the Jaguars look like they could be in trouble.  Still, I can’t picture the Jaguars 0-2, especially with Jack Del Rio having a week to drill discipline into his team before the home opener.

– Cardinals over Dolphins: Surprise stat of the week: the Cardinals actually went 6-2 at University of Phoenix Stadium last season.  The Cardinals at 2-0 would rank among the season’s early surprises, but it would be an even bigger surprise if Chad Pennington had a big day against what is becoming one of the league’s most underrated secondaries.

– Jets over Patriots: Brett Favre’s home debut in New York puts an extra charge into this one, plus the Jets would just love to stick it to the Patriots in the wake of Spygate last year.  I have a feeling Matt Cassel will find the road to be much more daunting than Gillette Stadium.  Oh, and he doesn’t have the luxury of facing the Chiefs.

– Titans over Bengals: No Vince Young for Tennessee, but it won’t matter.  There are high school teams that tackle better than Cincinnati’s defense.  The Bengals offense looked a little confused too last week.  Carson Palmer under 100 yards passing?  The Marvin Lewis watch begins in Cincinnati.  I say 75 percent he’s axed before the year is over.

– Steelers over Browns: Pittsburgh will run away with the AFC North.  The Browns proved last week that they are a ways from the elite against Dallas.  This one will be competitive due to the rivalry factor, plus an emotional under the lights home crowd in Cleveland, but the Steelers are the class of the division and they will prove it.

– Vikings over Colts: Chalk this one up as the most intriguing game of the week for me.  Is this an elimination game of sorts already?  The Colts cannot be confident heading into the loud Metrodome after getting shelled at home in their opener.  Minnesota needs Tarvaris Jackson to show that potential we keep hearing about, but the Vikings defense will follow the Bears blueprint and harass Peyton Manning.  Peyton, meet Jared Allen.  Good luck.  The Colts at 0-2? It seems beyond crazy, but it might just happen.

– Broncos over Chargers: Denver’s confidence is sky high after destroying the Raiders on the road, plus Brandon Marshall is back.  If D’Angelo Hall couldn’t cover Eddie Royal one on one, how are the San Diego corners going to handle him and Marshall?  The Chargers pass rush will really miss Merriman, plus Antonio Gates is hobbled.  The Broncos might allow a high rushing day for LT, but their offense will be enough to win a shootout and enjoy a large lead in the AFC West.  San Diego at 0-2? Seems really crazy, but it just might happen.

– Chiefs over Raiders: Dud game of the week.  The rivalry is nasty enough that the game could actually be fun to watch, but these are two of the worst teams in the league.  The Chiefs are reportedly having trouble selling out Arrowhead for this game, which tells all you need to know about the state of football these days in Kansas City.  Still, the Raiders are a mess in every way, and Larry Johnson will run for enough to get KC a rare W.  

– Giants over Rams: The G-men’s biggest challenge will be overcoming a 10-day layoff after opening the season with their Thursday night win over Washington.  St. Louis was maybe the worst team in week one, so there is nowhere to go but up.  This seems like it could be a trap game for New York if the Rams’ offense wakes up (Torry Holt 1 catch for 9 yards last week – are you kidding me?).  Still, the Giants should be able to rely on their championship experience and pull out a win.

– Saints over Redskins: New Orleans will really miss Marques Colston, who is out 4-6 weeks.  Still, Drew Brees has enough targets for the team to score offensively.  The Redskins looked like they didn’t know which end was up offensively last week.  If that continues, New Orleans will win a low scoring affair.

– Bears over Panthers: This should be a great game.  Both teams pulled shockers in week one, so it’s hard to say which of these teams is better right now.  The Panthers are without Steve Smith for another week, so that gives an edge to the Bears defense.  Chicago won on the road during their Super Bowl run two years ago, and the hunch is they’ll find a way to pull out this one.  This one really could go either way though.

– Packers over Lions: Aaron Rodgers played well last week in the spotlight, and the Packers look like they have a statement to make.  Detroit? The Lions should be embarrassed losing to Atlanta.  Home field advantage won’t help the Lions if they keep playing like that.  This won’t exactly be a difficult road environment for Green Bay’s young signal caller.

– Buccaneers over Falcons: Brian Griese gets the start for Tampa so that gives slight pause.  Still, the Falcons aren’t playing Detroit anymore.  Matt Ryan could be in for a rude awakening this week against Monte Kiffin’s defense.  Tampa Bay almost stole one last week and could be just good enough to make things interesting in the NFC South.  On a side note, I am kicking myself that I didn’t rank Michael Turner higher in fantasy this year.  He could have some big games this year even though he’s playing for the Falcons.

– Seahawks over 49ers: Seattle is still really banged up, and I really want to pick the upset.  Thing is, Seattle has a tremendous home field advantage, and there is no reason to back San Francisco on the road right now after the way they played last week.  Besides, Matt Hasselbeck has got to play better this week doesn’t he? This could be a really sloppy game.

– Texans over Ravens: This game has been moved to Monday night due to Hurricane Ike, which makes it the first Monday night game in Texans history.  Even though it won’t be nationally televised,that’s enough for me in this toss-up matchup.  Baltimore’s defense is still good, but I still want to see Joe Flacco on the road.  Houston is a much better team than what they showed last week.

– Cowboys over Eagles: This too will be a fantastic game.  In a way it’s a shame one of these teams will have to start the year 1-1.  I like the Cowboys in what should be a raucous atmosphere for their home opener, on a Monday night no less.  Still, the Eagles pose a big challenge.  The sway factor will be a monster game from Terrell Owens, eager as always to show Andy Reid and company they did him wrong.

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How’s that For Openers?!?

Posted by mizzou1028 on September 9, 2008

Wow.  That’s all I have to say after watching the Broncos absolutely trash the Oakland Raiders last night to cap off week one.  I certainly didn’t expect a 41-14 blowout win.  Sure, I am always an optimist about my team and always can come up with a reason why they will win, but I sure didn’t expect complete domination to that degree.  Only on one other occasion in their history have the Broncos scored more points in an opener (I still remember that day vividly. I was sitting in the south stands as a sixth grader when the Broncos trounced the Bengals at Mile High.)  Sure, they were playing the Raiders, who true to their tradition kept shooting themselves in the foot, but it is impossible to not be optimistic and excited as a Broncos fan after their effort last night.  Taking into account everything that happened around the league in week one, I am more convinced than before that the Broncos will return to the playoffs.  If they can can score 41 points without Brandon Marshall, imagine when he’s back next week. 

Eddie Royal’s performance last night was phenomenal: nine catches for 146 yards and a touchdown, all while going against one of the league’s premier corners in D’Angelo Hall, who received a $66 million contract from the Raiders in the offseason.  The Broncos certainly look like they have a steal in the draft in Royal, who when paired with Brandon Marshall should be even more explosive.  Throw in Tony Scheffler, who came up with a huge 72 yard catch last night, and Darrell Jackson, who caught a 48 yard touchdown pass, and Jay Cutler certainly doesn’t have a shortage of targets.  The running game should benefit from the weapons in the passing game, and the offensive line seems in better shape than last year.  It is a testament to rookie left tackle Ryan Clady that you didn’t hear his name called at all last night.  That means Clady did his job, not allowing a sack and not getting called for a penalty all night. 

Defensively the Broncos weren’t spectacular, but they got the job done.  The Raiders gashed them on the ground in two games last year to the tune of 185 yards per game.  Last night they rushed for 150, which is a slight improvement, but the Raiders still ran for over five yards a carry.  The Broncos will have to shore that up, and will get a good test next week with LaDainian Tomlinson.  The Broncos certainly took advantage of the opportunities presented to them by the Raiders’ ineptitude offensively, and that’s part of what a defense needs to do.  They did get good pressure on JaMarcus Russell a number of times, which is something they weren’t able to do last year.  As the season goes on though, the Broncos will need to make sure they can consistently stop the run and put pressure on the QB.  Last night the run wasn’t much of a factor for the Raiders because the Broncos jumped out to an early lead, but the Broncos will need to stop the run in order to win close games. 

The Broncos have a huge game next week with San Diego coming into Mile High.  The Broncos are the only team in the AFC West with a win in week one.  Just one week into the season, the Broncos find themselves in a conference where the defending champion Patriots have lost their MVP quarterback for the year, the perennial powerhouse Colts looked confused in a week one loss, the chic pick Jaguars got stunned in their first game, and the favorites in their own division, the Chargers, lost on the last play in their first game.  The AFC is wide open for the taking, and the Broncos find themselves in the thick of it with a number of other teams.  This should definitely be a wild ride in the NFL this year.

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Week One and Season Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on September 5, 2008

Football is finally back!  I know, they’ve been playing the preseason games for a month but that doesn’t count.  Last night’s win by the Giants over Washington officially kicked off the year.  Count me among those that feels the Giants are really being slighted and are not being given the respect a defending champion should deserve.  Yes, they lost their top two defensive ends (Michael Strahan to retirement and Osi Umenyiora to a season ending injury in preseason) but they still the defending champs, and last night they played like it.  The Redskins looked lost offensively most of the game, in large part because the Giants managed to get pressure on Jason Campbell.  Eli Manning didn’t have a great game, but he made enough plays early to give the Giants the lead, and Plaxico Burress proved he is still the real deal. 

I am genuinely baffled how many people are predicting a bad year for the Giants.  My hometown newspaper, the Denver Post, predicted a 20-19 Redskins win yesterday.  Of the 16 experts on espn.com, only one is predicting the Giants to win the NFC East (to be fair they actually didn’t last year) and seven of those experts believe the Giants will miss the playoffs.  The Sports Guy on espn. com is offering the following: Prediction No. 9: The Giants finish either 7-9, 6-10 or 5-11.   Plleeeasseee.  If you know anything about football, you know that is unlikely for a defending Super Bowl champion, particularly one with a tough defense that has proven over the years it can win on the road.  At least Sports Illustrated is picking the Giants to go 9-7 and win one playoff game.  I’m not saying the Giants will repeat, or even that they’re a lock to win the division (the Cowboys are loaded and dangerous and perhaps the favorite in the NFC).  I’m simply saying the Giants should at least get a little more respect than they’re getting.  Their next two games are at St. Louis and home against Cincinnati.  It’s very possible the G-men will begin the season 3-0, and there are several idiots out there thinking they won’t make the playoffs?  If they were playing in the AFC maybe, but not in the mediocre NFC.

Now, to be fair, I offer my picks for the season, and I have as much chance of being wrong as anyone else (and probably will be).  It is easy to forget that there is numerous turnover in the league every year, and there will always be surprise teams, as I offer a couple of shockers below. 

NFC EAST CHAMP: Dallas (13-3)  The Cowboys blew an opportunity last year with a home playoff loss.  The offense returns loaded as ever, and if everyone on the roster behaves this is the team to beat in the NFC, and maybe in the league.  The addition of Pacman Jones is huge if he stays out of trouble, as he is one of the top kick returners in football and a solid corner.  Zach Thomas also shores up the linebacking core.  Tony Romo and Terrell Owens have a clear chemistry that will allow the offense to light it up again this season. 

NFC NORTH CHAMP: Minnesota (10-6) I still believe the Vikings would have been a real player for the Super Bowl if they had gotten Brett Favre.  Tarvaris Jackson will have pressure on him all season, but with Adrian Peterson back there the Vikings will score a lot of points.  The league’s top run defense got even better with the addition of Jared Allen.  Expect at least 15 sacks out of him. 

NFC SOUTH CHAMP: New Orleans (10-6) The Saints have as much offensive talent as anyone and were a real disappointment last year.  This year they should be able to turn it around and be able to win a division that is up for grabs.  Reggie Bush should explode in his third year with a healthy Deuce McAllister accompanying him at running back.  The key will be how well their defense performs.  Carolina could be a darkhorse here, but they are likely to wear down with so many key players having a history of injury. 

NFC WEST CHAMP: San Francisco (9-7) This is my real surprise pick.  The 49ers have stunk it up in recent years, and start a no name quarterback in J.T. O’Sullivan.  Thing is, Mark Martz has taken over as offensive coordinator and brings receiver Isaac Bruce with him from his old days in St. Louis.  Martz has had success with all kinds of quarterbacks (Kurt Warner in 1999 anyone?) and the Niners will benefit from playing in an awful division.  I actually thought about Arizona here, but the Cardinals will continue their pattern of underachieving in the desert. 

NFC WILD CARDS: New York Giants (11-5) Philadelphia (10-6)  Both teams play in the rugged NFC East, which produced both wild card teams last season.  The Giants, as mentioned above, are much better than the respect they are being shown, and will prove it by returning to the playoffs.  The Eagles prospects could well depend on the health of Donovan McNabb, but they finished last season with a bang and should continue that momentum into the season. 

You may notice the absence of Green Bay.  I stand by my opinion that they made a colossal error rejecting Brett Favre in favor of Aaron Rodgers, and that distraction will carry over.  You don’t simply replace a legend quarterback, it doesn’t happen.   I don’t think the Seahawks will make it because they have benefited for years playing in a weak division, but their lack of running game will kill them, in addition to the fact that they don’t have many stars that jump off the page. 

NFC WILD CARD ROUND: New Orleans over Philadelphia, N.Y. Giants over San Francisco

NFC DIVISIONAL ROUND: Dallas over N.Y. Giants, Minnesota over New Orleans

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: Dallas over Minnesota

AFC EAST CHAMP: New England (12-4) The Patriots will be very good once again.  The health of Tom Brady does seem to be a question mark, and a caveat here is that if he goes down they are done.  The Patriots will not challenge for 16-0 again but will be able to win the division without much difficulty thanks to a friendly schedule.  Randy Moss should have another big year. 

AFC NORTH CHAMP: Pittsburgh (11-5) The Steelers have a tough physical defense that will help them win a lot of games, particularly in cold weather late in the year.  Rashard Mendenhall could be a rookie of the year candidate and will help ignite their offense and will complement Willie Parker. 

AFC SOUTH CHAMP: Jacksonville (12-4) One of my other surprise picks.  This has traditionally been an automatic for Indy, but the Jaguars are ready to break out.  Their defense is without question a top five unit, and the offense will benefit from the addition of Jerry Porter at wideout.  The Jaguars nearly upset the Pats in the playoffs on the road last year.  David Garrard is underrated as a passer and it wouldn’t shock me to see him in the Pro Bowl. 

AFC WEST CHAMP: San Diego (11-5) The Chargers biggest question is if they can stay healthy.  LaDainian Tomlinson appears healthy and ready to go, but Antonio Gates does not.  Shawne Merriman declined surgery so he could play this year, and that will be interesting to see if that affects the Chargers.  Still, there is enough talent that they are the division favorites considering the rest of the division. 

AFC WILD CARDS: Indianapolis (10-6) Denver (10-6)  The Colts will still make the playoffs even if they don’t win the division.  Peyton Manning is still Peyton Manning and the offense will be good as usual.  Call me crazy, but I think there could be a leftover effect from their stunning playoff loss to San Diego last year.  The Colts in recent years have debunked the theory they can’t win on the road, but something doesn’t seem right about this team entering the season.   As for the Broncos, I realize this looks like a hometown pick, but I expect big breakout years from Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall.  The run defense can’t possibly be any worse than last year, yet the Broncos still managed seven wins as bad as it was.  Slight improvement in that area should lead to a few more wins, and the fact they have four games against the Chiefs and Raiders will put them in the playoffs.

I’ve left out several good teams, many of which would make it if they were playing in the NFC.  The Jets will barely miss out of the postseason, and it won’t be Brett Favre’s fault they don’t get there.  The Jets made several improvements in the offseason, but a difficult early schedule will put them behind an eight ball they won’t be able to get in front of.  The Titans are a solid team that made the playoffs a year ago, but this year they will also fall just short.  I believe the Browns, one of the “hot” teams in this year’s media, were a fluke last year.  It would not shock me to see Derek Anderson usurped as the starting QB by Brady Quinn at some point, and that will doom the Browns. 

WILD CARD ROUND: Pittsburgh over Denver, Indianapolis over San Diego

DIVISIONAL ROUND: Jacksonville over Pittsburgh, New England over Indianapolis

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: Jacksonville over New England

SUPER BOWL: Dallas over Jacksonville    

The Cowboys have every piece necessary to win it all.  They came very close last season, and I believe they too would have beaten the Patriots in a Super Bowl rematch had they had the chance.  Last year’s playoff loss will serve as motivation all year and this season they will be able to get it done. 

Before we wrap up, I also offer my selections for the rest of week one.  Picks do not take point spread into account:

– Bills over Seahawks: The Bills are an intriguing team, and the Seahawks are banged up. 

– Dolphins over Jets: A mini upset, but the Dolphins will be significantly improved.  Chad Pennington gets revenge.

– Patriots over Chiefs: The question is will Kansas City even get a first down.  This is a complete mismatch.

– Ravens over Bengals: Both teams will be bad this year.  Cincy has a potentially explosive offense, but the Ravens defense will help them pull this one out at home.

– Steelers over Texans: Houston is improving, but a rough assignment for the opener.

– Cowboys over Browns: This will be a good game, but the Cowboys pull it out on the road.

– Colts over Bears: Colts win opener at new stadium, Bears quarterback woes continue

– Jaguars over Titans: Jaguars win tough road opener in a key division game off the bat

– Broncos over Raiders: Even without Brandon Marshall, the Broncos make enough plays to win on the road

– Chargers over Panthers: No Steve Smith, no chance for Carolina.  Chargers roll at home

– Eagles over Rams: Philadelphia rolls at home against a Rams team trying to figure out its identity

– Lions over Falcons: Dud game of the week…Two bad teams square off at the Georgia Dome

– Vikings over Packers: Adrian Peterson begins spectacular season with Monday night show at Lambeau…Packers see how life will be without Favre

– Saints over Buccaneers: Saints win emotional opener at the Superdome against division rival

– 49ers over Cardinals: I’m shocked how many people are picking Arizona to win this game….Niners will be surprise team this season

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Football Thoughts

Posted by mizzou1028 on August 6, 2008

– I think the Broncos are darn lucky that Brandon Marshall wasn’t suspended for more games than the three handed down by Roger Goodell.  Considering the suspension will likely be reduced to two games after Marshall undergoes counseling, the Broncos should be thankful they aren’t losing their star receiver for half the season.  Granted, Marshall will miss two division games (at Oakland and home versus San Diego) but at least he isn’t out for a longer period of time.  Marshall is still poised to have a big year on the heals of a 102 catch season, and hopefully he has learned his lesson about toeing the line off the field.

– The Broncos have a couple of injury concerns already in camp that haven’t been discussed much.  One is center Tom Nalen, who sat out the final 11 games last season after tearing his right biceps, and is currently recovering from off-season surgery on his left knee.  Nalen will likely miss the entire preseason (let’s be honest – that’s not really important) but it doesn’t seem for sure as though he’ll be ready for the opener at Oakland.  The fact that Nalen is missing time now also begs the question as to whether he’ll be able to finish the season healthy.  Nalen is the leader of the offensive line and his absence was definitely noticeable last year.

– The other injury is to rookie running back Ryan Torian.  Torian was carried off the field this morning after being hit by Jamie Winborn and Nate Webster.  Torian suffered a broken elbow and will miss 6-8 weeks, meaning at the earliest it will be late September before he can return to action.  Even though he was selected in the fifth round, the Broncos had high hopes that Torian could become the feature back in the offense because his running style is a perfect fit for the team’s running scheme.  Torian will now miss the rest of camp and the preseason, which is more important for a rookie because he needs that period to adjust to the rigors of the NFL, plus it might actually impact Torian’s chances of making the team. 

– As far as Brett Favre is concerned, I think the Days of Our Lives theme music is appropriate here.  This has become such a circus it’s ridiculous.  At this point, if the Packers are that convinced that Aaron Rodgers is their guy and they don’t want Favre around, they should just release him.  Of course, they’re not going to do that because Favre would sign with division rival Minnesota immediately if not sooner.  It’s funny, I’m tired of hearing about Favre, but on the other hand I’m dying to see what happens next in this saga.  It has gotten to the point where it’s so crazy that it is rapidly becoming entertaining and tiresome at the same time.  Regardless of how it turns out, any Favre game against the Packers will be must see, wherever Favre ends up playing.  That is, if he ends up playing.

– It will be interesting to see how this affects Favre’s legacy.  He’s a sure fire Hall of Fame lock for sure, but will he be remembered for this drama at the end of his career?  I am intrigued to see how Favre will be recalled in ten, or even five years.

– It is also interesting how because of the Favre saga, we haven’t heard much about the other 31 teams in the league besides the Packers.  Maybe this is one of the reasons why it doesn’t quite seem like it should be time for football yet.  Of course, it is only preseason right now, so really we’re still a month away from any football that matters, but I don’t generally remember football sneaking up on me as much in previous years as it has this year.  Maybe it won’t seem that way once the Broncos have their first preseason game (or as I prefer to think of it, glorified controlled scrimmage) on Saturday night.

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Thoughts on the Broncos and Rod Smith

Posted by mizzou1028 on July 30, 2008

– What happened to the summer?  The Broncos’ first preseason game is a week from Saturday, and it doesn’t quite feel like football time yet.  Not that I’m complaining, I still get way more excited for football than all of the other sports combined. 

– The more I think about the Broncos the more optimistic I am they can at least compete for a wild card.  I really like the idea of D.J. Williams moving back to outside linebacker, for that should have more impact on defense than people may realize.  He will have more freedom to make plays than he did at middle linebacker last season, and that will have a trickle down effect on the rest of the defense.   I also like the addition of Dewayne Robertson at defensive tackle.  His presence should improve the team’s ability to stop the run and generate a pass rush, which could have the trickle down effect of more interceptions for Champ Bailey and friends in the secondary. 

– I also am convinced Jay Cutler will have his best season yet.  Keep in mind he was battling diabetes last season and didn’t know it.  This year he is better prepared to handle the situation.  He is also entering his third year in Mike Shanahan’s offense.  The offensive line will be improved by the simple fact that they are entering the season healthy, something they never were last year.  The offense really has the potential to be explosive like it hasn’t been in a couple of years.  That being said…….

– I really hope Brandon Marshall has learned his lesson.  I also hope that Roger Goodell isn’t too hard on him, even if Marshall may deserve some punishment for his off the field behavior in the past year.  Even a four game suspension would have a big impact on the Broncos, for that would cause Marshall to miss division road games at Oakland and Kansas City.  Those are both winnable games, but with Marshall out would become that much tougher to win, not to mention the Broncos would be significantly shorthanded at home against San Diego in week two.  That’s tough enough, but if Marshall is suspended for eight games, not out of the question considering how tough Goodell has been on those that don’t toe the line, than I shudder to think about where the Broncos would be before Marshall could return in November.  The amount of games Marshall is suspended (and word is it will be two at the bare minimum) could end up being the most important number for the Broncos in 2008. 

– Regardless of any suspension, the fact that Bronco great Rod Smith has taken Marshall under his wing means we shouldn’t hear about any more off the field incidents for Marshall.  Smith’s presence around Marshall and the rest of the team can only mean good things for the organization.

– Speaking of Smith, I don’t think he gets his due nationwide.  He should be a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame based on his numbers and contributions to the organization, but his name doesn’t seem to come up when talk turns to great receivers of the 90s.  Considering that only two Broncos are in the Hall of Fame (John Elway and Gary Zimmerman), it doesn’t seem as though the national voting panel will be that quick to acknowledge Smith. 

– You don’t think there is a bias against Smith nationally? Let’s compare him with Michael Irvin, who got inducted into the Hall last season in his second year of eligibility.  The only reason Irvin didn’t get in on the first ballot was because of his off the field issues.  Irvin in his career caught 750 passes for 11,904 yards and 65 touchdowns for the Cowboys.  Smith? He caught 849 passes (99 more than Irvin) for 11,383 yards and 68 touchdowns.  Both receivers played an identical 12 seasons, and while Irvin won one more Super Bowl than Smith, Irvin had the luxury of Troy Aikman throwing to him most of his career.  Smith compiled a lot of his numbers with Brian Griese and Jake Plummer throwing to him, after just four seasons with John Elway.  Considering Smith has been as clean as a Boy Scout his entire career, he should be a first ballot lock right? Or rather, he would be if he wore the jersey of an east coast team his entire career.  It will be interesting to see what actually happens when Smith is eligible for induction in five years. 

– I am convinced that the Broncos should have more guys from their past in the Hall of Fame.  It is absolutely inexcusable that the Hall doesn’t include Randy Gradishar, Floyd Little and Lionel Taylor.  I also would make a big case for Terrell Davis, who has been a finalist a couple of times, but it is fair to wonder if he played long enough.  The point is, if any of the above mentioned players played for the Giants or the Cowboys or the Redskins, they would have been in easily.  The voters say there is no bias, but it is obvious that there is one. 

– Next winter will be interesting because Shannon Sharpe will be eligible for the first time.  If he isn’t inducted immediately, they should blow up the place.  It would a real farce if the greatest tight end in the history of the game didn’t get in on the first try.

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