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Week 10 Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on November 14, 2009

ALeqM5iRDj0XZhPlmIlw-F3SmyaB3CRn-Q-1 I promise once college football season is done I will start posting more than just picks again.  Let’s just say that my workload week to week is getting insane.  I do however don’t want to miss an easy chance to rip Jay Cutler, who tossed FIVE picks last night in a 10-6 loss to mediocre San Francisco (picked correctly by me on Twitter: look at the time stamp, I got it in well before kickoff).  His last one in the final seconds was a beautiful throw right to three red 49er jerseys and Greg Olsen behind all of them.  Mr. Cutler has now tossed a league high 17 picks after throwing 18 all of last season.  His nine picks in the red zone the last two seasons are far and away an NFL high.  Let’s just say I am not crying as a Broncos fan that he is gone.  I’m not sure Kyle Orton is the answer long term, but at least he doesn’t gift wrap red zone picks like Cutler.  Now, on to the picks, last night’s correct pick not included in the overall record.

Last week: 8-5 Season: 88-39

– Titans over Bills: Is there a resurgence in Tennessee behind Vince Young?  Time will tell, but as long Chris Johnson keeps running like he has the Titans may not be completely left for dead yet.  The Bills are a mess and Terrell Owens may not even play.  In any case, find the bar if you’re stuck with this snooze fest.

– Dolphins over Buccaneers: Tampa Bay got a very nice win over Green Bay.  If they don’t win again soon, petitions may start for those ugly bright orange uniforms.  Miami should get enough out of the Wildcat at home to get back on track.

– Jets over Jaguars: Maurice Jones-Drew is special, but the Jags are very mediocre.  The Jets are at home following a bye.  I like Sanchez and company here.

– Steelers over Bengals: Pittsburgh may not lose the rest of the year.  If you think I’m kidding, take a good look at their schedule.  It could pretty much be smooth sailing if they get by this one.  Cincinnati is legit, but Pittsburgh has revenge on their minds after week three.  Plus they are running the ball again, bad combo for opponents.

– Broncos over Redskins: Denver has not looked right offensively the last two weeks.  Don’t expect a blowout here considering the surprising stat that the Redskins allowed 30 points last week for the first time in three years.  The problem in Washington is the offense, especially considering Jason Campbell has ankle issues and Clinton Portis is out Sunday.  This could be very ugly, but I don’t see three losses in a row out of Denver.  The Broncos defense should be able to get a turnover or two and set up the offense with a short field.  I like Denver 13-3.

– Chiefs over Raiders:  I’ll admit it, I flipped a coin here.  Both teams stink.  The Chiefs may have found some life with new addition Chris Chambers, who had two touchdown grabs in Jacksonville last week.  Both teams are bad, but the Raiders have JaMarcus Russell, which makes them really bad.  This is another unwatchable game if you’re stuck with it.

– Eagles over Chargers: San Diego has won three straight, but I sense a letdown here since the Chargers have a showdown in Denver next week.  Philadelphia left one on the table last week against Dallas and should be motivated.  I do think the Eagles have talent offensively that is waiting to break out at any time, and they are due for a big day.  I also think they can slow down the Chargers offense.  I like Philly in a mini-upset.

– Cowboys over Packers:  Green Bay is really struggling to protect Aaron Rodgers.  If he has no time to throw, it doesn’t matter how good his arm is.  The Packers will have the home crowd behind them, but the Cowboys haven’t lost since week four.  If the Cowboys can win here, they can keep separating themselves in the NFC East.

– Vikings over Lions: I think Minnesota is every bit as talented on both sides of the ball as New Orleans.  The Vikings know they need to keep winning and have no margin for error if they want a potential playoff meeting in the Metrodome instead of in New Orleans.  This should be relatively easy for Adrian Peterson and company, and they shouldn’t have any issue slowing the Lions down either.

– Falcons over Panthers: Carolina is actually starting to show some signs of life, even having the lead much of the game in New Orleans, but I think the Falcons are ready to string some wins together.  Michael Turner is running hard again, and if they get the passing game going again along with that, look out.

– Cardinals over Seahawks: I am stunned that Arizona is in danger of a tv blackout here.  The Cardinals just made the Super Bowl last year for crying out loud.  Arizona has been really up and down offensively, but I think they will get two good games in a row from Kurt Warner here.  Seattle has been too inconsistent to rely on in an away game right now.

– Colts over Patriots: The clear game of the week should be a great Sunday nighter.  I almost went with New England as hot as they have been, but if left tackle Matt Light doesn’t play, you might need more than one hand to count the number of sacks for Dwight Freeney.  I also think Peyton Manning is absolutely at the top of his game right now, especially considering some of his inexperienced receivers.  The Colts secondary could have a difficult time covering Moss and Welker, but I think the Indy offense will be able to put up enough points to compensate, especially playing at home.  Colts in a thriller.

– Ravens over Browns:  I really want to know what idiot keeps thinking it’s a good idea to put the Browns on Monday night (they had three appearances last season).  Seriously, even in April,

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NFC West Preview

Posted by mizzou1028 on September 8, 2009

Teams listed in predicted order of finish:

1. Seattle Seahawks – The Seahawks endured a very significant collapse a year ago.  They went from a perennial division championship team to a 4-12 also ran in the blink of an eye.  Definitely not what Mike Holmgren envisioned in his final season as head coach in Seattle.  It started from a get-go with a 34-10 loss in Buffalo, and before the Seahawks knew it they were out of the race.  Injuries had as much to do with this as anything, but the poor record seemed to give the team the excuse it needed to retool just a bit.  Jim Mora, Jr. takes over as head coach, and all he did his first season in Atlanta was lead the Falcons to the NFC title game in 2004.  The Seahawks are healthy, and with the additions they made are back in position to reclaim the NFC West.

Start with quarterback Matt Hasselbeck.  Hasselbeck suffered a bulging disc in his back last year, and thus the Seahawks suffered perhaps the second most crippling injury blow in the league after Tom Brady.  Hasselbeck is a no brainer Pro Bowl talent, and with all due respect to Seneca Wallace, the Seahawks will be significantly upgraded this year with a healthy Hasselbeck.  I don’t believe Hasselbeck gets the due he should, for he should abosolutely be in the discussion of top QBs around the league.  His numbers speak for themselves throughout his career.  The Seahawks also made a major free agent impact with the pickup of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who escapes the jail that has been Cincinnati.  Houshmandzadeh no longer has to play in the shadow of Chad Ochocinco, and will be the clear featured receiver in Seattle.  Houshmandzadeh should be more at home in the northwest (he played college ball at Oregon State), but the fact that he is the number one guy will be a huge relief for him as well.  I believe he is in line for a huge year, and his presence will mean a big year for Hasselbeck as well.  The Seahawks also have receiving depth with veterans Nate Burleson and Deion Branch.  Tight end John Carlson also provides a good option in the passing game, plus he is a very good blocker.  The key for Seattle could well be the running game, for they will need i to be successful in order to draw attention from the passing attack.  It will be interesting to see how Mora and his staff divide carries between Julius Jones and new addition Edgerrin James, who was released by Arizona.  Jones and James are both guys who are used to being the primary back, and both are going to want their share of carries.  If they can co-exist, both are talented and capable of keeping a defense off balance.   I think with the right motivation, both will at least act like they are happy for a time, and if both are effective it will really make a difference for the Seahawks.  The offensive line features left tackle Walter Jones, who has been to multiple Pro Bowls but is also coming off knee surgery.  The Seahawks were decimated by injuries along the line last ear, so they expect improvement based on the simple fact everyone is now healthy.

The Seahawks’ defensive line was really pushed around a year ago, so they addressed that area by signing a pair of 300-pound defensive tackles in free agency, Colin Cole from Green Bay and Cory Redding from Detroit.  The Seahawks feel that if those two can tie up linemen, it will create more pass rushing and palymaking opportunities.  End Patrick Kerney was yet another Seahawk to be hit with injury last year, but now is healthy, and he is one of the more underrated pass rushers in the league.  Seattle will have a new look at linebacker, after they traded Julian Peterson, the team’s lone Pro Bowl representative, to Detroit.  To replace him, they used the fourth overall pick in the draft to tab Aaron Curry from Wake Forest.  He has looked great in preseason and should make an immediate impact.  He will be joined by the athletic Lofa Tatupu and hard hitting LeRoy Hill, who the Seahawks thought enough of to use their franchise tag on him.  The biggest question marks are in the secondary, but Seattle does have Marcus Trufant and they brought back Ken Lucas in April.

The Seahawks appear ready to turn the kicker position over to Brandon Coutu, who was on the roster all of last year even though the Seahawks had Olindo Mare.  Jon Ryan will handle the punting duties, and he has a very strong leg.  Nate Burleson and Josh Wilson should also be effective returning kicks.

I expect a big rebound year for the Seahawks.  They were so riddled with injury last year that they had very little chance of being competitive.  This year with everyone healthy they are in position to make a run.  Remember, this division was won with a 9-7 record last year.  I like the Seahawks to reassume the top position.

2. Arizona Cardinals – Arizona has accomplished something that almost no one thought possible: they have defined themselves as a threat in the NFL.  This is a team that has had potential for break out for several years, and last year they were finally able to break through, winning the division with a 9-7 record.  Then, they managed to write off everyone who said that was a fluke by running through the playoffs, beating Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia.  The Cardinals then came very close to stunning Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl.  Make no mistake about it, Arizona is a real player in the NFL.  Can they get back to the Super Bowl?  History says that will be tough, but the Cardinals should be able to contend for a playoff spot once again.

It’s hard to believe that Kurt Warner is 38, but he is still one of the most effective quarterbacks in the NFL.  Warner has had a renaissance in Arizona, after he struggled with the Giants and then was a backup to Matt Leinart with the Cardinals.  Leinart is still viewed as the quarterback of the future, but this is definitely Warner’s team.  The Cardinals told him as much when they signed him to an extension in the offseason.  Warner is extremely accurate and probably reads defenses better than anyone else in the league. Even though he is not mobile, he is surprisingly adept at avoiding the sack because of his ability to find the open receiver so quickly.  Not only that but he might have the best set of wideouts in all of football at his disposal.  Larry Fitzgerald has an ability to catch any ball at any time, open or not.  Sometimes he can outleap anyone and snag a ball even when double covered.  Anquan Boldin is also an outstanding route running and deep threat.  He has expressed unahappiness about his contract, so it will be interesting to see how that affects his performance.  Steve Breaston is also a very good option at third receiver.  He would be a sure starter on most teams, but his ability to play the slot alongside Fitzgerald and Boldin makes the Cardinals’ offense very difficult to slow down for any secondary.  The Cardinals took a risk in the running game by allowing Edgerrin James to leave for Seattle.  This is largely because they spent their first round pick on Ohio State running back Beanie Wells.  Wells has an intriguing combination of size and speed, and the Cardinals are hoping he can be the starter from the word go.  Otherwise, the ground attack will be in the hands of Tim Hightower, who is good but not spectacular.  The offensive line is a cohesive unit that plays well together, and returns intact from a year ago.

The defensive line is an enigma at this point, for the group did a great job stuffing the run in the playoffs, but played poorly down the stretch of the regular season.  They also were unable to generate a pass rush on Ben Roethlisberger when it mattered in the Super Bowl.  Darnell Dockett is their best pass rusher, and Arizona will be highly dependent on him to lead the charge to the quarterback.  Bertrand Berry is very capable as well on the other side when he is on his game.  The linebackers are very average and aging, led by Karlos Dansby and Chike Okeafor.  The strength of the team lies in the secondary, which is one of the best in the NFL.  Cornerback Bryant McFadden comes over from the Steelers, and joins Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to form an effective unit.  Safeties Adrian Wilson and Antrel Rolle are hard hitting and would each start for any team easy.

Kicker Neil Rackers is extremely effective and accurate in the clutch, plus punter Ben Graham is solid so there are no worries there.  The return game is a question mark with the loss of J.J. Arrington, but Breaston might be able to get a shot if the Cardinals are willing to risk minimizing his effectiveness at receiver.

Arizona is battling history in the sense that losers of the Super Bowl tend to have down seasons the next year.  The Cardinals appear to have the talent to buck that trend, but they still need to show they can consistently win on the road.  A hunch says they lose a close division race to Seattle but that they will find themselves in the wild card hunt.

3. San Francisco 49ers – It has been a long time since the 49ers have resembled anything close to the glory days of the 80s.  Last year was more of the same as the team stumbled to seven losses in their first nine games, resulting in the firing of Coach Mike Nolan.  The good news for Niners fans is the team seemed to show some life under Mike Singletary when he took over.  Singletary brought a fiery new attitude to the team and the coaching staff, and San Francisco managed five wins in its last seven contests.  There is hope in San Francisco, but there is also turmoil and distraction looming over like a dark cloud.

The 49ers saw what they thought was good fortune on draft day, as the top receiver on the board fell to them at number ten.  The Niners grabbed Michael Crabtree of Texas Tech, thinking he would give them the deep threat they had been missing offensively.  Turns out they got more than the bargained for, because Crabtree remains the only unsigned draft pick as we head into week one.  Seems Mr. Crabtree thinks he should have been selected higher in the draft, and thus he wants top pick money.  He says he is prepared to sit out the season and reenter the draft next year if necessary.  The 49ers are just as stringent in their stance that Crabtree should be paid based on where he was actually selected, so we have a stalemate that’s going to continue for awhile, with San Francisco potentially in danger of losing the rights to Crabtree altogether if he follows through with his threat to sit out the year.  The absence of Crabtree would mean the 49ers would be stuck with essentially the same group of wideouts as last year.  Isaac Bruce is entering his 16th season in the NFL, and he briefly contemplated retirement in the offseason.  He can still get open, but is not near as explosive as his days with the Rams.  Josh Morgan did start to emerge in the second half of the season last year, and the second year wideout will be expected to step up in a big way if Crabtree doesn’t show.  The 49ers also signed veteran Brandon Jones from Tennessee, who will also be counted on heavily.  Tight end Vernon Davis will be asked to start living up to the potential he showed as a sixth overall pick in 2006.  Davis has been more valuable as a blocker so far, but now he will be needed in the receiving game as well.  Regardless of who is catching the ball, the 49ers know, at least at the start of the season, that Shaun Hill will be one throwing to them.  Hill is actually 7-3 as a starter, and the 49ers have tremendous confidence in him.  One reason for their second half surge last year was that Hill stepped in for J.T. O’Sullivan and seemed to inject some life into the team.  Hill is very much a journeyman, but if he continues to play well, the job will remain his.  Alex Smith has been the ultimate bust since being the top overall pick in 2005, and while the coaches desperately want to make him the starter, Hill has flat outperformed him.  Hill will have a luxury of an excellent running game with Frank Gore leading the way.  Gore has been the team’s workhorse the past few years, and there is no question he is the key to what they do.  He can run, he can catch, and he can block.  Gore has averaged well over 20 carries a game for the past three seasons, so it is scary to think where they would be without him.  The 49ers are making an effort to keep Gore fresher, so they tabbed Alabama’s Glen Coffee with their third round pick.  The idea is that Coffee can spell Gore for a few carries a game, and that way Gore should be fresher for the end of the year.  The offensive line has been horrible, allowing a staggering number of sacks the last two years, but the 49ers did sign free agent tackle Marvel Smith from the Steelers.  Smith has battled back problems, but the Niners are hopeful he can inject some stability into the group.

Defensively, the 49ers are a quietly improving group with talent.  The defensive line is anchored by pass rusher Justin Smith, who proved to be worth the money spent in free agency last season.  The 3-4 alignment the team plans to use this season should prove to be very beneficial to Smith, who will line up exclusively at right end, which plays to his pass rushing strength.  The linebackers are very talented, led by Patrick Willis, who is quietly becoming one of the game’s best players, making the Pro Bowl in each of his first two years.  He is joined by Takeo Spikes, who has been multiple Pro Bowls himself in his career.  The 49ers hope the 3-4 will prove to be better suited to both players.  The secondary is a mix of veterans (cornerbacks Nate Clements and Walt Harris) and youth (safeties Michael Lewis and Dashon Goldson).

The special teams is in good hands with reliable kicker Joe Nedney and punter Andy Lee.  The return game is also in very solid hands with Allen Rossum, who continues to be one of the most consistent kick returners in football.

While the 49ers do have some talent in place and a world of potential, I would feel better about them if they didn’t have the Crabtree distraction hanging over their head.  I also want to see improved play from the offensive line and secondary before I anoint them a playoff team.  Right now they are still a year away,

4. St. Louis Rams – It seems hard to believe it was 10 years ago that the Rams won the Super Bowl thanks to Kurt Warner Marshall Faulk, and the Greatest Show on Turf.  What was once one of the most feared offenses in NFL history is now arguably the worst team in the NFL.  Last year the Rams were a disaster in virtually every area, finishing 2-14.  Not surprisingly, there is a new sheriff in town in first year coach Steve Spagnuolo, who comes over from the Giants and brings a tough attitude to a team that certainly needs a little discipline.  The rebuilding is well underway, and things will be painful for another year in St. Louis.

Marc Bulger does remain the starting quarterback, and the Rams are hoping he can return to levels from a few years ago, especially his 4,000 yard season of 2006.  Bulger has not been able to stay healthy consistently, and he tends to linger in the pocket too long, leading to sacks.  He does have a good arm, and the Rams will be counting on his stability at the position.  The Rams also hope that his declining production the past few years is an aberration, not a trend.  What will make things a little tougher for Bulger is that he will throwing to a very average group of receivers.  Longtime veteran Torry Holt was let go in a cost cutting move, so the Rams will go with Donnie Avery and Laurent Robinson, who comes over from Atlanta.  Tight end Randy McMichael does put up decent numbers and is a good blocker.  The key for the Rams is they are going to have to rely very heavily on their running game.  Steven Jackson is by far the best player on the team, for he has ability to run between the tackles, catch out of the backfield, and really make people miss.  The Rams did sign fullback Mike Karney from the Saints, so that is a clear indication that the running game may actually be a priority in St. Louis.  Jackson should post big numbers, and he might be able to get them into the end zone enough to help improve on the total of 2 wins from a year ago.  The offensive line is also a major bright spot for now and the future, for the Rams spent their first round pick on Baylor tackle Jason Smith.  They also signed center Jason Brown from Baltimore.  Veteran Orlando Pace was let go in another cost cutting move, but the new coaches felt that Pace’s production had dropped significantly anyway.

Despite major efforts to upgrade the defensive line the past few years, the Rams have remained bad against the run and have been equally unable to generate a pass rush.  Rookie Chris Long did have four sacks last year, but now the Rams will be counting on him to start showing his potential and justify his second overall selection a year ago.  The Rams will also need production out of Leonard Little, who had six sacks last year.  The linebackers are in the process of being retooled, but I like the second round selection of Ohio State’s James Laurinaitis in the draft.  The Rams hope that he will eventually become the leader of the defense the way he was at Ohio State.  The rest of the group is very young and there are expected to be growing pains.  The Rams have decided to basically retain the same secondary as last year, highlighted by cornerback Ron Bartell and safety Oshiomogho Atogwe.

The kicking game is actually in decent hands with kicker Josh Brown and punter Donnie Jones.  Both have strong legs and are accurate.  Derek Stanley is expected to get the first crack at returning kicks and punts, but he has yet to show any consistency in that area.

The Rams are undertaking a major rebuilding effort, and the immediate future does not look good.  Many home games are not expected to sell out, resulting in local television blackouts.  I think Spagnuolo and his staff will have success eventually, but this has the look of a very rough year for the Rams.

Coming later this week: playoff and week one picks

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AFC West Preview

Posted by mizzou1028 on September 8, 2009

Once again teams listed in predicted order of finish.

9781. San Diego Chargers – Last year’s Chargers season would be a huge disappointment by the standards of most teams.  This sounds like a very strange statement considering they won the division, won a playoff game against Peyton Manning and the Colts, and gave the Super Bowl champion Steelers a very good game in the second round of the playoffs.  However, the Chargers had gone to the AFC title game the year before, came in with a roster virtually unchanged, and were expected to take a monster leap in the standings.  However, the Chargers really stumbled out of the gate, sitting at 4-8 through 12 games.  They did manage to win their last four games to finish 8-8, and were able to back into the division title thanks to an epic collapse by Denver.  The fact that the Chargers hosted the Colts in the playoffs despite finishing 8-8 says more about the current NFL playoff system than anything else.  This year, the Chargers are clear runaway favorites in what perhaps is the worst division in football.  The question is do they have enough to beat the NFL’s elite in the playoffs?

There is no question that there is plenty of offensive talent in San Diego.  How quarterback Philip Rivers didn’t make the Pro Bowl is beyond me.  His 34 touchdown passes were a franchise record and he led the league with a 105.5 quarterback rating.  The main knock on Rivers is that two of his 2004 draft classmates, Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger, have already won Super Bowls.  It is clear however that Rivers deserves to be mentioned among the elite of the league.  As long as he is around, the Chargers will have a good chance to be successful.  He does have a very good and very underrated group of receivers to throw to, including Vincent Jackson, who produced his first 1,000 yard season a year ago.  He lines up alongside Chris Chambers, who has thrived in the Chargers’ offense since coming over from Miami a few years ago.  The Chargers also have surprising depth in Malcolm Floyd and Legadu Naanee.  Oh, not to mention, Rivers can throw to the best tight end in football in Antonio Gates.  Gates was slowed at the beginning of last year due to a toe injury, but he did rebound toward the end of the season.  Now that he’s fully healthy this year, he should be in for a big season.  The running game is also arguably the most talented in the NFL.  LaDainian Tomlinson had a down year by his standards last year, finishing with 1,100 yards and missing the playoffs to a toe injury.  Tomlinson had his contract restructured during the offseason, so he will enter the season with a chip on his shoulder.  Tomlinson wants to prove that he is still the best back in football.  The Chargers also have Darren Sproles, who is definitely among the fastest backs in all of football.  The pairing of a healthy Tomlinson and Sproles will make the Chargers offense extremely dangerous, couples with the ability of Rivers under center.  The offensive line did have its struggles last season, but the Chargers elected not to make any changes.  This is a veteran group that knows it just needs to play to its ability.

Defensively the Chargers defense will be significantly improved from a year ago for a simple reason: the return of Shawne Merriman.  Merriman sat out most the season last year due to reconstructive knee injury, and his absence in the middle of the defense was definitely noticed in more ways than one.  Merriman is certainly one of the best linebackers in all of football, mainly because his his ability to get to the quarterback.  It does remain to be seen whether he still possesses the speed from before the knee surgery, but his leadership alone will be a tremendous boost in the locker room and on the field.  Shaun Phillips will play in the other outside linebacker spot, and he had 7.5 sacks last year.  The Chargers also used their first round pick on limnebacker Larry English of Northern Illinois.  The defensive line is anchored by veteran tackle Jamal Williams and end Luis Castillo.  Overall it is not a terrific group but it is capable of getting the job done.  The secondary has talent with cornerbacks Antonio Cromartie and Quentin Jammer, and both will need to play a lot better than they did a year ago.  The Chargers’ pass defense ranked 31st a year ago, and that definitely needs to get better.

The Chargers’ special teams definitely has the talent to be the best in football.  Kicker Nate Keading is believe it or not second all-time in kicking accuracy in NFL history with an 86 percent success rate.  Punter Mike Scifers has one of the strongest legs in the NFL and he also has the accuracy to be able to pin teams inside the 20.  The return game is in amazing hands with Sproles, who is a threat to score every time he touches the ball.

There is no question that San Diego is an overwhelming favorite to win this division.  Talent wise I think they are very capable of making a deep playoff run.  This team returns largely intact from a year ago, and more importantly they are healthy The schedule is tough (they play the AFC North and NFC East) but the Chargers have the talent to play with those teams.  The question is will they play to their talent level?  We will find out.

2. Denver Broncos – I put the Broncos at number two in this division with a couple of asterisks.  One, this is weak division and someone has to finish second, even if their record is going to end up 6-10 or 7-9.  Second, I like new coach Josh McDaniels and I think he has a good system.  I also think the Broncos could surprise some people and win more games than everyone expects.  The Broncos surprised the entire league when they fired Mike Shanahan, and they shocked the NFL even more when they traded quarterback Jay Cutler.  (I have reviewed and analyzed that deal in several previous posts – basically I think it might not end up as bad long term for Denver as everyone thinks.)  They have also had to deal with the Brandon Marshall fiasco.  All this after they blew a three game lead with three games to play last season, and missed the playoffs altogether for the third straight year.

The offense has almost been completely revamped from a year ago.  This despite the fact they finished second in the NFL in yards.  What Coach McDaniels didn’t like is that the Broncos finished 16th in points.  When McDaniels acquired quarterback Kyle Orton in the Cutler trade, he did so because he legitimately feels that Orton is better decision maker than Cutler.  While Cutler put up flashy numbers a year ago, he did throw a number of red zone interceptions.  Orton has a reputation of being a good decision maker and not turning it over.  Broncos fans are nervous after his four preseason picks, but it is preseason.  The biggest question with Orton is the finger he injured in the third preseason game against Chicago, but he says he will be ready for the opener.  The receiving game could well hinge on whether Marshall gets his act together and decides to play.  Marshall has been suspended during the preseason because of his behavior.  Marshall is unhappy because he wants to be traded.  I am convinced however that Marshall will not be traded, so it will be up to him to play or not.  I think if he gets his head on straight and plays, he will be very productive in this offense, maybe enough to get a third straight 100 catch season.  The rest of the receivers are actually very good, led by second year wideout Eddie Royal, who should be productive with or without Marshall.  There is also good veteran depth with Brandon Stokley and new addition Jabar Gaffney, who came over from the Patriots.  Tight end Tony Scheffler is also a good receiving threat.  The other tight ends, Daniel Graham and second round pick Richard Quinn, are good red zone threats and excellent blockers.  The running game should have more stability this season, after the Broncos went through nine backs last year due to injuries.  Hence why the Broncos spent their first round pick on Knowshan Moreno of Georgia.  Moreno has speed to elude tacklers, plus enough bulk to run through them.  He can also catch out the backfield and is a good blocker.  In the Broncos’ run scheme, he might win offensive rookie of the year honors.  The Broncos also added Correll Buckhalter from the Eagles in free agency for depth, and are expecting a big second season from Peyton Hillis, who emerged in the second half of last season.  The offensive line is also excellent, and returns intact from a year ago.  Young tackles Ryan Clady and Ryan Harris should be around for a long time.

The defense was atrocious to put it mildly last season.  One of the emphases of new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan is about forcing turnovers, an area in which the Broncos were among the league’s worst last year.  The Broncos did spend a first round pick obtained in the Cutler deal on defensive end Robert Ayers, who will be expected to bolster the pass rush.  He will likely start week one considering the lack of pass rush from the Broncos’ ends last year.  The nose tackle is still a question mark, and it’s a big one considering Denver will play a 3-4 under Nolan.  The linebackers have talent and speed, led by veteran D.J. Williams and pass rushing specialist Elvis Dumervil, who will be transitioning from defensive end.  The secondary has been completely retooled with the exception of shutdown corner Champ Bailey, who had a down year last year by his standards.  The Broncos will need him to return to his 2005 level of 10 picks.  The rest of the secondary will be led by hard hitting safety Brian Dawkins, who came over from the Eagles.  The Broncos also signed cornerback Andre Goodman and safety Renaldo Hill from the Dolphins.

Special teams is a bit of a question mark for the Broncos.  Kicker Matt Prater tailed off toward the end of the season last year, and Broncos fans are longing for the Jason Elam days.  He does have a very strong leg, hence why the new coaches are giving him a second chance.  Punter Brett Kern must also show more consistency from a year ago.  The return game is also really up for grabs.  Eddie Royal is the Broncos’ best returner, but Denver doesn’t want to risk injury to him in the return game.  Draft choice Alphonso Smith is also a distinct possibility.

Denver is a team that could just as easily finish 4-12 as 10-6.  If Moreno is the real deal, if Marshall plays and if the defense is better, this could be a surprise playoff team.  If Orton is a big time bust, Marshall is an attitude problem all year, and the defense continues to struggle, it could be a long first year for Josh McDaniels.  Time will definitely tell on this team.

3. Kansas City Chiefs – It is a major understatement to say that Kansas City needed a complete overhaul after last season’s disastrous 2-14 campaign.  The Chiefs defense was awful, surrendering 30 or more points seven times, including a whopping 54 to an average Bills attack at home.  The offense put up its share of numbers at times, but lacked any real playmakers in the passing game outside of Gonalez.  The Chiefs will have a very different look in 2009.  Gone are head coach Herm Edwards, General Manager Carl Peterson, and a host of veteran players including Gonzalez, whose trade request was accommodated by new management.  In are new coach Todd Haley, new GM Scott Pioli (architect of the New England dynasty), and new direction.  This team is clearly rebuilding, and the question is how competitive will they be?

The new direction starts at quarterback, where the Chiefs acquired what they hope is their signal caller for a long time to come in Matt Cassel.  Cassel was outstanding filling in for the injured Tom Brady in New England last year, and the Chiefs hope that Cassel will be able to translate that same success in a new environment and a new system.  Cassel is 6-4, and does have an above average arm, and the Chiefs are confident he will be good fit.  They are so confident that they rewarded him with a lucrative raise and contract extension before he’s even taken a snap for them.  If nothing else, it is reasonable for the Chiefs to expect more stability than the trio of Tyler Thigpen, Damon Huard and Brodie Croyle gave them a year ago.  One thing Cassel won’t have however is Gonzalez, and that means he won’t have the league’s best tight end to throw to like those three had.  Dwayne Bowe is the most talented of the receivers, and he is coming off an 86-catch season.  Bowe has the talent to be star, and he will be paired with Mark Bradley, who started to emerge toward the end of last year.  The Chiefs also signed veteran Bobby Engram as a free agent for depth.  There will be a noticeable dropoff at tight end with Brad Cottam the primary candidate to fill Gonzalez’ shoes.  The running game will once again be anchored by Larry Johnson, but he hasn’t been the same running the past two years since he suffered a foot injury in 2007.  Johnson was also not really a part of the offense last year, as the Chiefs went to a spread attack.  The spread is now gone, and Johnson is part of the offensive plan again, that is if his attitude doesn’t get in the way.  Jamaal Charles is ready to step in if Johnson continues to be ineffective.  The Chiefs do have a solid guard in Brian Waters, but the rest of the line is very young and very inexperienced, save for new addition Mike Goff from San Diego.

The defense has been revamped, highlighted by a new linebacking core.  Derrick Johnson is lone retainee at the position, but the former first round pick has yet to live up to expectations.  He will be joined by savvy veteran Mike Vrabel, obtained in the Cassel deal, and Monty Beisel from Arizona.  The Chiefs signed veteran Zach Thomas in the offseason, but released him in their last round of preseason cuts.  It seems clear that Thomas will retire, but the Chiefs were hoping to be able to count on his veteran leadership.  The defensive line is clearly a work in process.  The new regime is clearly not enamored with last year’s first round pick, Glenn Dorsey.  Dorsey played nose tackle last year, but the new regime feels like he’s too small for the position, so they’re trying him at right end this year.  The Chiefs also used this year’s first round pick on defensive end Tyson Jackson, a teammate of Dorsey’s at LSU.  Tamba Hali will be also be counted on to be able to rush the passer.  The secondary is also very young after the release of veteran cornerback Patrick Surtain.  Kansas City thinks Brandon Flowers is a shutdown corner, but the numbers from last year don’t back that up.

The Chiefs’ kicking game could be the most unreliable in the NFL.  Seventh round pick Ryan Succop appears to be the guy, but he missed a short field goal in the final preseason game.  Punter Dustin Colquitt is above average, and the return game could be highlighted by sixth round pick Quentin Lawrence of McNeesse State.  It seems like a long time ago that this return unit was feared with Dante Hall back there.

Kansas City is definitely in line for a rebuilding year, but they are starting to put the pieces in place.  This is another team that we don’t really know what to expect from, but I don’t see a playoff run in the cards.  .500 could be a possibility if they get a few breaks.

9514. Oakland Raiders – This organization is the biggest joke in the NFL.  I’m just saying that because I am a Denver guy, but it is very clearly a joke.  The ironic thing is this team actually showed more life after last year’s coaching change from Lane Kiffin to Tom Cable, even winning their final two games against Houston and Tampa Bay.  However, this offseason has been another illustration that this team just doesn’t know what it’s doing.  I think it starts with owner Al Davis, who still has his fingers in everything and for whom the game has long passed him by.  During training camp Cable seems to have actually punched one of his assistants.  Cue the Days of Our Lives music in Oakland.

The Raiders offense will once again be in the hands of JaMarcus Russell at quarterback, who has still yet to show the ability that made him the top pick of the draft in 2007.  Russell has good size and ability, but he has yet to put it together consistently.  His work ethic has really been questioned.  Perhaps that’s one reason why longtime veteran Jeff Garcia was brought in to challenge him.  Then again, Garcia didn’t make the team, so Russell will be on his own when the Raiders open the season against San Diego.  He’ll have a shall we say interesting set of receivers to throw to.  Javon Walker is the top receiver on the depth chart, even though he has battled numerous injuries in the past five years and is another guy whose attitude has not been stellar.  He will be paired with no names such as Johnnie Lee Higgins and Chaz Schilens.  The Raiders also inexplicably spent their first round pick on Darrius Heyward-Bey of Maryland, even though guys like Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin and Percy Harvin were available.  Heyward-Bey does have speed, always an Al Davis favorite, but was never dominant in Maryland.  In fact, he was barely above average in college.  I think the best receiving threat on the team is actually tight end Zach Miller, who has good hands.  He may be in line for a 75 catch season by default.  The running game actually has talent with last year’s first round pick, Darren McFadden, and the capable Justin Fargas.  So far McFadden has fit right in line with the Raider tradition of flash but no substance.  McFadden must have a better second year for the Raiders to justify their investment in him, and Fargas is actually expected to be the clear starter at the beginnning of the year.  The biggest addition the Raiders made is actually fullback Lorenzo Neal, who is one of the best in the business and for some reason can’t stick with a team.  The offensive line however is a disaster area waiting to happen, with a mix of washed up veterans and busts.

The Raiders defensive line can be symbolized by their expensive pairing of tackles.  Tommie Kelly signed one of the richest deals in NFL history for the position a year ago (even though he was coming off a torn ACL), and did not even come close to justifying the contract in 2008.  His counterpart, Gerard Warren, fits right in line with the Raider ideal of high draft picks who turn out to be busts.  Warren has talent, and has played well at times in Cleveland and Denver, but has largely been ineffective.  End Derrick Burgess is a good pass rusher, but he missed 8 games last year due to injury.  The linebackers are talented, led by Thomas Howard, who is very athletic and can make plays.  He will be the leader of an otherwise young group.  The secondary does feature Nnamdi Asomugha, who in my opinion is the best cornerback in all of football.  His counterpart, Chris Johnson, will be tested early and often, and must play well to avoid rendering Asomugha ineffective.

The special teams is actually an area of strength for the Raiders.  Kicker Sebastian Janikowksi and punter Shane Lechler both have very strong legs and are very accurate.  Justin Miller and Johnnie Lee Higgins, and perhaps even Heyward-Bey, do have the speed to make an impact in the return game.

In the end these will be the same old Raiders.  They do have talent at a number of positions with a lot of potential, but discipline and organization is a huge problem here as long as Al Davis is in charge.  Expect the Raiders to once again be among the league leaders in penalties and turnovers, and that will once again be their undoing.

Coming Next: the final division preview, the NFC West

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NFC South Preview

Posted by mizzou1028 on September 5, 2009

Teams listed in predicted order of finish.

1. Atlanta Falcons – The turnaround that the Falcons made last season ranks right up there with Miami as one of the most stunning in NFL history.  The franchise had hit rock bottom after losing franchise centerpiece Michael Vick to the dogfighting fiasco.  The organization also had a black eye because of that.  Atlanta was bad enough in 2007 to warrant picking third overall in the draft.  Last year, despite a rookie quarterback and rookie head coach, the Falcons finished 11-5 and made the playoffs.  Ev en though they lost in the first round at Arizona, the fact Atlanta made the playoffs after the previous few seasons was nothing short of incredible.  This year, the Falcons appear to have the pieces in place to be even better.

Quarterback Matt Ryan had such an outstanding rookie season that Falcons fans forgot about Vick in a real hurry.  Many people had questioned the selection of Ryan with the third overall pick last year, but the Boston College product showed from the word go that he is more than capable of leading an NFL team.  I mean literally from the word go, because the first pass of Ryan’s career was a 62-yard touchdown.  From there Ryan hit the ground running, making excellent decisions, showing great arm strength, an ability to find multiple receivers and an ability to absorb an NFL offense very quickly.  Ryan also proved to be very durable, and the Falcons are confident that he will be even more improved with the offseason work he has put in.  Ryan’s outstanding season was coupled with one by receiver Roddy White, who had by far the best season of his four year career.  White was rewarded in the offseason with a lucrative contract extension, and he will be paired with longtime Falcon Michael Jenkins.  Atlanta only strengthened the passing game with the addition of arguably the best tight end in NFL history, tabbing Tony Gonzalez from Kansas City.  Gonzalez is certainly up there in age, but his ability as a receiver and a blocker in unparalleled among tight ends in the league.  His presence will cause all kinds of matchup problems for opposing defenses.  Atlanta also has good receiving depth with Harry Douglas and Brian Finneran.  This offense is potent enough with what we’ve talked about so far, but factor in the running game and it might be unstoppable.  Michael Turner finished second to Adrian Peterson last year in rushing, going over 200 yards in a game twice.  Not bad for someone who toiled as LaDainian Tomlinson’s backup in San Diego.  Turner showed without doubt that he is a bona fide starter in the league, a back who is a threat to score at any time.  With Turner leading the running game and the passing game expected to be potent again, Atlanta’s offense will be very good indeed.  Oh yeah, and the offensive line gave up just 17 sacks last year.

The defense is still a work in progress, but the Falcons do have a Pro Bowl pass rusher in John Abraham, who recorded 16.5 sacks last season.  However, he didn’t get much help on the other end from Jamaal Anderson, a 2007 first round pick who has yet to be an impact player.  Atlanta hopes that first round pick Peria Jerry of Ole Miss will help strengthen the defensive line.  The linebackers will have a new look, with longtime veteran Keith Brooking headed to Dallas and Michael Boley gone to the Giants.  The Falcons did sign Mike Peterson from Jacksonville, and the Falcons are confident he will bounce back with a good season this year in new surroundings.  2008 second round pick Curtis Lofton is also expected to make an impact.  The secondary will feature two rookies (safety William Moore of Missouri and cornerback Chris Owens of San Jose State), so it will be definitely be tested, especially early in the season.

The Falcons are set at kicker with Jason Elam, who is entering his 16th NFL season.  Last year Elam made 29 of 31 field goals, including two game winners.  (Denver has to feel very dumb for letting him leave).  Punter Michael Koenen also has a very strong leg, and proved to be an effective weapon for the Falcons in terms of dictating field position.  The return duties are expected to be handled by Jerious Norwood and Harry Douglas, both of whom are solid but not spectacular.

I don’t think there is much question the Falcons have risen to the top of this division.  They will face some stiff competition, but I think the additions they have made will put them over the top.

9072. New Orleans Saints – The Saints have to rank among the disappointments of last season.  New Orleans had everything in place for a massive breakout season, including talent on both sides of the ball.  Instead the Saints stumbled to an 8-8 finish, the very definition of mediocrity.  They battled all kinds of injuries and inconsistency.  They also turned out to be very deficient on defense.  The Saints feel the additions they have made will help.  With everyone healthy this could once again be a dangerous team.  Then again, it remains to be seen how it will all fit together.  Either way, the Saints will certainly be very exciting to watch.

The Saints may have their question marks, just like any other team in the NFL, but quarterback definitely isn’t one of them.  Drew Brees had one of the best seasons in league history last, year, throwing for over 5,000 yards and just barely missing breaking Dan Marino’s record for single-season passing yards set in 1984.  Brees put up these numbers despite missing players around due to injury most of the season.  His ability to throw downfield accurately makes him a talent, but couple that with his ability to extend plays in the pocket, and you’ve got arguably the best quarterback in all of football.  Brees will no doubt be very excited to have his receiving core back and healthy.  Marques Colston and Lance Moore are both outstanding route runners and both have an ability to make big plays down the field.  Colston was severely hampered by a thumb injury last season, although he still managed 64 catches despite missing five games and playing hobbled in several others.  He is now healthy, so defenses will not strictly be able to key on Moore.  The two together will be very dangerous, along with Devrey Henderson.  Tight end Jeremy Shockey was largely a disappointment last season since coming over from the Giants, but he was slowed down by a sports hernia and an ankle injury.  The  Saints hope being more familiar with the offense will help him be more productive this year.  The running game was also hampered by significant injuries last year to Deuce McAllister.  McAllister is now gone, having not been retained by head coach Sean Payton.  New Orleans will now rely on Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas.  Thomas was a surprise last year and emerged as the primary back, and the Saints hope that he’ll be able to handle those duties again this year while they use Bush in a more complimentary role.  Thomas doesn’t possess great speed but he can run between the tackles.  Bush’s ability as every down back is still in question, so this could be a good arrangement for the Saints, particularly if they get more big plays out of Bush when he is fresh.  The offensive line returns intact after allowing an NFC low 13 sacks last year, so that is definitely not a question.

The offense is good, we know that, but the biggest problem in New Orleans last year was the defense.  The Saints made a big effort to address that by signing six free agents on that side of the ball, as well as using their first three draft picks on defensive players.  Defensive ends Will Smith and Charles Grant return from last year (Mainly because they have big expensive contracts) so the Saints will be needing them to produce.  Paul Spicer was signed as a free agent from Jacksonville, so he could well end up being a starter at one of the ends.  Defensive tackle will continue to be a battle between holdovers Kendrick Clancy and Sedrick Ellis, and newcomer Rod Coleman, signed from the Falcons.  The Saints hope the new blood will combine with improved play from their existing linemen to create more of a pass rush and better ability to stop the run.  The Saints also actually have talent at linebacker with Scott Fujita and Jonathan Vilma.  the group is solid but not spectacular, and should be the same again this season.  The secondary gets a big boost with the selection of Ohio State cornerback Malcolm Jenkins in the first round of the draft.  I would be shocked if he’s not an opening day starter, being that the Saints got scorched for lots of big plays a year ago.  The Saints also boosted the secondary by raiding the Vikings for veteran safety Darren Sharper.  Sharper is a good run stuffer, a big hitter, and has a knack for being around the football.  His presence will significantly improve the secondary in New Orleans.

The Saints have tremendous confidence in kicker Garrett Hartley.  Hartley arrived in week 10 last year and made all 13 field goals, and was also perfect in extra points.  Punter Greg Pakulak also arrived in week 10 last year and possesses a very strong leg.  The return game also has few concerns with Reggie Bush a threat to score every time on punts, and the speed of Courtney Roby on kickoff returns.

New Orelans has the look of a team that could really break out.  Then again, they have had that look for several years.  They did make the NFC title game in 2006, but have been a real non-factor since.  The Saints will be in the hunt for the division, but they need to put it all together and stay healthy to end up on top.

3. Carolina Panthers – The Panthers were largely a surprise last year, finishing 12-4 and earning a bye in the first round of the playoffs.  Everything came crashing down in the divisional round though when they got blown out on their home field by Arizona, 33-13.  That defeat really soured an otherwise impressive season by Carolina, and it created a lot of question marks heading into 2009.  The Panthers didn’t make very many offseason changes, and fans are hoping that means a repeat of the 12-4 record, and not  repeat of getting hammered in the playoffs.

Many Carolina fans are scratching their heads about the five year extension signed by quarterback Jake Delhomme in the offseason.  The extension includes about $20 million in guaranteed money.  Not bad for a guy who is 34 years old, but he is coming off the worst performance of his career in the playoff loss.  Delhomme threw five picks in that game and also lost a fumble.  This is not to say that one game defines a season or a career, but he had a really bad game at a really bad time.  The Panthers have confidence in Delhomme despite that game, for they love him as a locker room leader and game manager.  He is 14-6 over his last 20 starts, so Carolina is confident Delhomme will bounce back with a good year.  He does have one of the best receivers in football to throw to in Steve Smith, and that never hurts.  Smith had over 1,400 yards receiving last year despite missing two games, and he will counted on for another big year.  Smith is such a tough matchup that most defenses can’t cover him one on one.  Muhsin Muhammad also returns for another year, and although he is getting up there in age, he still possesses the ability to be a good complimentary receiver.  The tight ends are average in Jeff King and Dante Rosario, so a lot of the onus for big plays in the passing game will be on Smith.  The running game is outstanding with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.  How Williams missed the Pro Bowl with a 1,500 yard season and 20 touchdowns is beyond me (not to mention he averaged five yards a carry).  Stewart also proved to be a nice compliment, so the Panthers have two backs capable of handling a heavy workload.  Fullback Brad Hoover also is great at helping at the offensive line open up holes.  The offensive line is also in good shape, having set a team record for fewest sacks allowed last year.  The running game will certainly be key for the Panthers, and if they can get some plays from Smith mixed in, they could prove to be a difficult attack to stop.

The defensive line will be impacted one way or another by Julius Peppers.  Peppers finished with 14.5 sacks last season, and is clearly the anchor of the entire defense, but he has made it clear he wants out of Carolina.  The Panthers have essentially ignored this request, making for an interesting locker room dynamic.  No one is exactly feeling sorry for Peppers, who will make $16 million this season.  It will be interesting to see how Peppers plays this season if he is continually unhappy about being a Panther.  It will also be interesting to see how his teammates react to his unhappiness.  Perhaps this why Carolina took a defensive end, Everette Brown of Florida State, with their first pick in the draft.  The rest of the defense is solid, anchored by linebacker Jon Beason.  Nai’ll Diggs also provides an ability to make plays at the linebacker position.  Cornerback Chris Gamble had trouble with Arizona’s receivers in the playoff game last year, but he has shutdown ability, and is the leader of the Carolina secondary.  The safeties are very average and that could expose the Panther D to some big plays.

Kicker John Kasay believe it or not is an original Panther, having kicked in Carolina since the franchise’s inception in 1995.  He made 28 of 31 field goals last year so he still has ability.  Punter Jason Baker is also very solid.  The Panthers’ best kickoff returner is actually Steve Smith, but they aren’t about to use him there when he is so sorely needed at receiver.  Ryne Robinson will get the first opportunity to return kicks this year.

The Panthers are no question a talented team, but they are definitely aging.  The question marks on defense, especially the attitude of Peppers, make it difficult to see them back in the playoffs.  They will be in the hunt, but will need some breaks.

4, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – To say that the Buccaneers are a team in transition is a big understatement.  This team appeared to be in great shape last year, starting 8-4 and ready to make a playoff push.  Things derailed quickly however, as Tampa lost its final four games, including a blowout loss at home to San Diego, and a disastrous home loss to the horrible Oakland Raiders in the finale.  The Bucs missed the playoffs, and thus sweeping changes were made.  Coach Jon Gruden was fired, replaced by defensive coordinator Raheem Morris.  Several veteran players were let go, a clear sign that the team is in rebuilding mode.  Oh, and just this week offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski was fired.  Jagodzinski had come over from Boston College, but didn’t even last long enough to coach a real game.  You know things are bad when a coach is fired based on the meaningless preseason.

The fact the offensive coordinator was fired tells you all you need to know abut the state of this offense heading into the season.  Quarterbacks Jeff Garcia and Brian Griese were both let go, meaning Tampa Bay has a lot of mediocrity at the position.  They did spend their first round pick in the draft on Josh Freeman of Kansas State, who has great size at 6-5 and 248 pounds.  Freeman has the ability to make plays with his feet but needs work on learning to throw in the pros, thus the plan is not to play him right away.  That leaves holdover Luke McCown and veteran Byron Leftwich to battle it out for the position (as of this point no starter has been announced for week one).  Leftwich played well in Pittsburgh last year filling in for Ben Roethlisberger, but it will be interesting to see how he fares if he is named the starter, for he didn’t exactly wow anyone in Jacksonville.  The receiving core sustained losses as well as veterans Joey Galloway and Ike Hilliard were not retained.  Anotnio Bryant and Michael Clayton are back, and will be depended on heavily to help the quarterback.  Bryant is actually a very underrated receiver and has Pro Bowl talent, but Clayton has largely been a disappointment after a good college career at LSU.  Kellen Winslow is a very talented tight end, but has not been able to stay healthy.  If he can, his presence could be vital for this offense.  The running game will also have a new look.  Many Bucs fans were upset the team released Warrick Dunn, but they did sign Derrick Ward from the Giants.  Ward came out of nowhere last year in New York and had an outstanding season, and he will be paired with Earnest Graham, who started to emerge as capable back last year.  The Bucs also hope Cadillac Williams will return to the field at some point this year.  Williams has battled two devastating patellar tendon injuries the past two years, but if he is his old self he could be dangerous.

Defense has long been a staple in Tampa, but that will have a new look too.  Linebacker Derrick Brooks, who has been the face of the franchise for ten years, was released in a cost cutting move.  Just the fact he is not there alone means this defense will look different.  (As a side note it is equally stunning that Brooks has yet to find a new team).  Veteran linebacker Cato June was also not retained.  The front seven will rely on a lot of youth, including draft picks Roy Miller of Texas and Kyle Moore of USC.  Both are expected to start along the defensive line.  The Bucs will also rely heavily on veteran tackle Chris Hovan and linebacker Barrett Ruud to keep the young players in check.  The secondary is still anchored by cornerback Ronde Barber, who seemed to be the only one to survive the veteran purge.  Barber still tied for the club lead in interceptions last year, and is part of a good cornerback tandem with Aquib Talib.  The safeties however are very mediocre, with Sabby Piscitelli and Tanard Jackson expected to start.

Kicker Matt Bryant actually provided three game winning field goals last year, but he doesn’t have the length strength that other kickers possess.  He was just 2 for 10 from 50 yards or more last year.  Punter Josh Bidwell is solid, which is good because the Buccaneers may need him often this season.  Michael Clayton and Clifton Smith are expected to handle the return duties.

The Buccaneers are a team in disarray.  It is highly unlikely that they will compete for a playoff spot.  Especially considering the division they play in, it might be too much to ask for them to even be near .500.  It does look like it could be a rough year in Tampa Bay.

Coming next: the AFC West

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AFC South Preview

Posted by mizzou1028 on September 2, 2009

This division offers my biggest shocker (there is always at least one).  Teams listed in order of finish.

1. Houston Texans – The Texans have not exactly experienced success since their inception in 2002.  Frankly they have not even been close to being a playoff team.  However,  I think things are about to really turn around for this team.  Last season they finished .500 for the first time, winning five of their final six games in the process, including wins over Tennessee (the AFC South champ and top playoff seed), Green Bay (at Lambeau) and Chicago in the finale, knocking the Bears out of the playoffs.  Granted, the Texans started out 0-4 and had some stumbles along the way, but this appears to be a team ready to break out.

Houston’s offense has very quietly become one of the scariest units in the league.  I would say the offense was already playoff quality at the end of the season, and is only bound to be better this year.  Quarterback Matt Schaub is very underrated as a game manager, and he has shown continual improvement.  Schaub is no slouch either when it comes to arm strength, and it doesn’t hurt that he has some terrific receivers to help him stretch the field.  Schaub’s biggest issue has been an ability to stay healthy, but when he’s been in there he has posted very good numbers.  That concern was not eased for Texans fans this week when Schaub hurt his ankle against the Vikings.  Schaub says there is nothing to worry about for the opener, but his health is key for success in Houston.  If he is healthy, I am predicting a Pro Bowl year for Schaub, because I think he is very good and so is the talent around him.  Wide receiver Andre Johnson is a no doubt top 3 wide receiver in the league.  Johnson led the league with 115 catches last year and a lot of them were of the spectacular variety.  Paired with the quietly successful Kevin Walter on the other side, the Texans have a pair of 6-3 targets for Schaub to throw to.  Factor in third receiver Andre Davis, as well as David Anderson, and Houston has depth at the position.  Tight end Owen Daniels is also coming off a Pro Bowl appearance, and he has great ability as a receiver as well as a blocker in the running game.  Speaking of which, the Texans really found a gem at running back last year in Steve Slaton.  All Slaton did in his rookie season was post over 1,600 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns.  He can run, catch, block, you name it.  Ryan Moats and Chris Brown will be called upon to keep Slaton fresh during the season.  Houston’s offensive line is young, but the players seem to be adapting well to the zone blocking scheme installed by Alex Gibbs, a system that Denver has used like clockwork for the past 15 years.  The key is keeping Schaub healthy, but if he is the Texans offense will put up monster numbers all year.

The defense has continued to get better in recent seasons, and the Texans hope that the final pieces are now in place.  Houston bolstered the defensive line with the additions of end Antonio Smith from Arizona, and tackle Shaun Cody from the Lions.  They will join an already capable group of tackles in Travis Johnson and Amobi Okoye.  The idea is to rotate linemen and keep them fresh, and Houston now has the depth to be able to do that.  Oh, and the Texans also have Mario Williams lining up at the other defensive end.  Coach Gary Kubiak and his staff were roundly criticized in 2006 when they passed on Reggie Bush with the first pick in the draft to take Williams.  Williams has proven the critics wrong by collecting 26 sacks over the past two seasons.  With the new additions along the line, it is scary to think that Williams might actually have more sack chances coming his way.  The linebackers are also very good, led by DeMeco Ryans, who also came in 2006.  Ryans is the leader of the defense.  He plays hurt, and isn’t afraid to take on any blocker or go to any lengths to make a tackle.  The Texans hope the additions of Cato June from the Colts as well as first round pick Brian Cushing of USC will round out the linebacking core.  The Texans secondary was inconsistent last year, but they hope an improved pass rush will lead to better results back there.  Dunta Robinson is the team’s best cornerback, with the rest of the group being young and inexperienced.

Kicker Kris Brown has been a Texan since the team’s inception in 2002, and he is still accurate as ever.  Punter Matt Turk had a subpar year last year, and he’ll need to get more oomph on his punts to keep the job.  Andre Davis was not near as good on returns last year as he was two years ago, but he’ll get another crack, along with Jacoby Jones.

The Texans appeared to finally get close to turning the corner last season, rallying at the end to finish .500.  They do play in a difficult divison, but they also get a friendly schedule in which they don’t have to see AFC powers Pittsburgh or San Diego.  I think this is a year the Texans turn the corner and make their first ever playoff appearance.

5932. Indianapolis Colts – The Colts have a surprising amount of changes this year for a team that had been the definition of stability for the past decade.  Head coach Tony Dungy is retired, replaced by Jim Caldwell.  There is also a new defensive coordinator, Larry Coyer, who has been with numerous teams with little success.  Also gone is franchise staple Marvin Harrison, who is not officially retired but has yet to latch on with a team.  The Colts still have much of the same from past years and the usual very high expectations.  Last year they went 12-4, winning nine straight to close out the regular season, only to finish second in the division.  Worse, they lost in the first round of the playoffs to 8-8 San Diego.  That left a bitter taste in the mouth of the Colts, and they are hungry.

The offense is still excellent.  Peyton Manning’s credentials obviously speak for themselves, as long as he is under center, the Colts will automatically have a good offense.  Manning’s numbers did dip slightly last year after he had surgery in the offseason prior, but he started to find his groove again toward the end of the year, and still managed to win yet another MVP award, the third of his career, tying Brett Favre for most all-time.  I would expect Manning’s numbers to be better than last, and that could be bad news for opponents.  Despite the loss of Harrison, the Colts still have an outstanding receiving core highlighted by Reggie Wayne, who actually outperformed Harrison the past couple seasons, and Anthony Gonzalez, who is entering his third year and has shown that he is more than ready to step in and be a reliable target for Manning.  Tight end Dallas Clark is also one of the top receiving tight ends in the league, so Manning will not have any shortage of targets.  The running game took a big dip last year, finishing a surprising second to last in the league.  Joseph Addai did not look anywhere near the back who starred as a rookie in 2006.  Addai only hit 100 yards once last year, hence the first round selection of Donald Brown out of Connecticut.  This has very much the look of an open competition, and the Colts hope that one of the two will emerge and give the team a reliable ground threat again.  The offensive line isn’t expected to be much of an issue, although its strength has always been pass protecting as opposed to run blocking.  Center Jeff Saturday is still very solid, but there could be a question mark at left tackle, where Tony Ugoh is still a work in progress.

Defense has never been a staple in Indianapolis, but it hasn’t been much of an issue because the offense has been so explosive.  The Colts do have an outstanding tandem of pass rushing ends in Dwight Freeney (10.5 sacks last year) and Robert Mathis (11.5 sacks).  The Colts also addressed the line in the draft with their second round pick, defensive tackle Fili Moala of USC.  The Colts hope that he and Ed Johnson will be able to tie up blockers, allowing for more sack opportunities for Freeney and Mathis.  The linebacking core is very average, with Gary Brackett being the best of the group.  The secondary features one of the best hard hitting safeties in Bob Sanders, who is outstanding in stuffing the run.  The corners are inexperienced, but the Colts have high hopes for Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson.

Kicker Adam Vinatieri might be a future Hall of Famer, so the Colts are set there.  The punter will be rookie Pat McAfee, who had a good career as a punter and kicker at West Virginia.  The Colts still don’t really have anyone set to return kicks and punts, with Chad Simpson and Pierre Garcon as possibilities.  Needless to say the return game is a big unknown for the Colts.

I still think Indianapolis is a playoff team mainly because of Manning, but they seem to be heading down, not up.  Still, this is a dangerous team always, and they will be a factor.

3. Tennessee Titans – Last year the Titans were a big surprise, racing out to a 10-0 start, finishing 13-3 and landing the top seed in the AFC.  However, they suffered a home defeat to Baltimore in their first playoff game that left a bitter taste in their mouth.  The organization also had a very rough offseason with the shooting death of legendary quarterback Steve McNair, who took the team to its only Super Bowl in 1999.  Tennessee also lost its most important defensive player, Albert Haynesworth, to free agency.  Jeff Fisher’s teams always push through and find a way to play well, but they will a have a rough road to repeat as division champ.

Kerry Collins ended up with the starting quarterback job by default last year after Vince Young has his mental breakdown in the season opener.  Collins surprised everyone with a Pro Bowl appearance, and is returning for his 15th season in the NFL.  He still has a good arm and doesn’t make bad decisions, and that makes him a good fit for Jeff Fisher’s offense.  Young is back with the team, and has made bold statements about wanting to get his old job back.  His preseason performance so far has not justified those bold claims, but it could prove to be interesting to see how it affects the Titans if Young continues to make his presence known off the field.  It won’t affect Collins, who is as steady as professional as anyone, but the whole situation could have an effect on the team going forward.  The Titans did make an effort to improve their receiving core with the addition of Nate Washington, who was the third receiver in Pittsburgh.  Washington will start alongside Justin Gage, while first round pick Kenny Britt of Rutgers will also be expected to make an impact.  Still, Tennessee’s receivers as a group don’t seem to really scare anyone.  Tight end Alge Crumpler didn’t make the impact in the passing game that was expected when he signed as a free agent last year, but he and Bo Scaife are a good tandem in the running game and both are capable red zone targets.  The strength of the Titans offense lies in the running game, where Chris Johnson had a monster rookie season last year.  His speed and shiftiness makes him very difficult to tackle, and his speed makes him the perfect compliment to LenDale White, who can gain the tough yards between the tackles and is a perfect goal line back.  The offensive line is among the best in the NFL, anchored by veteran center Kevin Mawae.

Defensively, the Titans will be greatly impacted by the loss of Albert Haynesworth to Washington.  Haynesworth’s presence to the Titans defense has been so vital over the years that their wins and losses were often dictated by his health.  When Haynesworth was 100 percent, his presence made it virtually impossible for teams to run on the Titans.  When he was out of the lineup or hobbled, it completely changed the game because teams were then able to run on the Titans.  A lot of pressure will be on Jovan Haye and second round pick Sen’Derrick Marks of Auburn.  The Titans do have end Jevon Kearse, who has an excellent season last year at age 32.  The other end, Kyle Vanden Bosch, must show he is recovered from a groin injury.  The linebackers are an above average group, but age is a concern, as there is no depth behind Keith Bullock and David Thornton, both of whom are over age 30.  The secondary is solid with corners Cortland Finnigan and Chris Hope.

The kicking game is set with kicker Rob Bironas, the fifth most accurate kicker in NFL history, as well as veteran punter Craig Hentrich.  The return game is unknown right now, but the top candidate to handle those duties is Mark Jones, a free agent acquistion from Carolina.

Tennessee is bound to take a step backward after hitting 13 wins a year ago.  The loss of Haynesworth could be crippling, and the offense is decent but it remains to be seen whether Collins can duplicate his success of last year.  In the end this division will be too tough for the Titans.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars – The big story out of Jacksonville is that the Jaguars might not have a single home game televised in their home market due to poor ticket sales and an expectation that not a single home game will sell out.  The Jaguars have to rank as the single biggest disappointment in the NFL last season, for they fell from a 12-4 record in 2007, a season that included a road playoff win at Pittsburgh and an admirable performance the next week in New England, to a disastrous 5-11 record in 2008, highlighted (or lowlighted) by six losses in their final seven games.  The Jaguars did make some significant changes, but mostly of the departure variety.  Gone are veteran running back Fred Taylor, receiver Jerry Porter (a big time free agent bust last year), receiver Matt Jones, defensive end Paul Spicer, linebacker Mike Peterson, and cornerback Drayton Florence.  So what does Jacksonville have left?  Coach Jack Del Rio is back somewhat surprisingly, and there is some talent yes, but a lot of question marks,

Offensively, the Jaguars have a lot of question marks.  Quarterback David Garrard does have a lot of talent.  He has ability to make plays with his feet and he has an accurate arm.  However, last year he had trouble finding receivers and his leadership skills really came into question.  This is a make or break year for Garrard, and he will need to play well early to keep his job.  Considering his backup is Cleo Lemon, this will mean the Jags are in big trouble if Garrard doesn’t bounce back to his 2007 levels of production.  The food news for Jacksonville is the presence of Maurice Jones-Drew, who was re-signed in April for five more years.  Jones-Drew is one of the most dynamic runners in the league and also has great ability to catch out of the backfield.  There is no question that Jacksonville will rely on him heavily, but with Taylor’s departure he may need to be a one man show in the running game.  The receivers are an interesting mix, highlighted by addition Torry Holt from St. Louis.  Holt’s numbers dropped off so significantly last year with the Rams that they had no interest in bringing him back.  The Jaguars hope that a change of scenery will benefit him.  Dennis Northcutt and Tory Williamson provide some deep threats as well, but neither has been consistent in their production.  The Jaguars offensive line was a mess last year due to injuries, so they hope that a healthy group will mean better production in that area.   New addition Tra Thomas from Philadelphia should also help.

When Jacksonville made their playoff run two years ago, the defense was the backbone of the team.  That unit is not even close to the same group now.  It actually started last year when they lost star defensive tackle Marcus Stroud to Buffalo in free agency.  John Henderson remains one of the best in the business, and he will be glue for Jacksonville’s offensive line.  End Reggie Hayward is also good at rushing the passer, but the rest of the line is a work in progress.  The Jaguars are hoping for a better season from Derrick Harvey, who failed to meet expectations last year as a rookie.  The linebackers are unknown but are actually solid, with Daryl Smith leading the way in the middle.  The secondary has good talent as well, with cornerback Rashean Mathis leading the way, along with safety Reggie Nelson.  It is imperative for the Jaguars that this unit return to 2007 levels as well after being a disappointment last year.

Kicker Josh Scobee is very accurate, but punter Adam Podlesh may be on the hot seat.  The return game is also middle of the pack in the league, with Troy Wlliamson and Brian Witherspoon handling the return duties.

The Jaguars don’t seem to have a clear plan as to whether they are contending or rebuilding.  Either way, I don’t expect a return to 2007, but rather more of the same from last season.  even if they improve, they do play in a very difficult division, so either way it will be a long year for Jacksonville.

Coming next: the NFC South

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NFC North Preview

Posted by mizzou1028 on August 29, 2009

Teams listed in projected order of finish.  I will say that I think this division is very tough to project as the top three teams could end up all being very close.

1. Minnesota Vikings – I tipped my hand in an earlier post before the season preview that I think the Vikings will be scary good in 2009.  Last year they did manage to win this division, thanks largely to winning five of their final six regular season games, only to get surprised at home by the Eagles in the first round of the playoffs.  There is no question that Minnesota has talent all over the board, and now they might have enough to take the next step and really give people in the Twin Cities something to celebrate.  There is also little doubt the Vikings offseason was very eventful, and according to many very controversial (even perhaps causing some tension in the locker room?), but I think in the end it will prove to make all the difference for the Vikings.

The reason for the controversy surrounding the Vikings is Brett Favre.  I am on record as saying I think he can still play and will end up being a good fit in Minnesota.  I do think his will he or won’t he retire saga did get very old very fast, especially because it seems the whole thing was planned all along for him to miss the arduous training camp.  The fact is that prima donna or not, Favre is still good enough to make a difference for the Vikings.  I don’t think anyone can make a reasonable argument that he isn’t an improvement over Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels.  Jackson’s performance last season was shaky enough that coach Brad Childress felt compelled to trade for Rosenfels back in Februrary.  Even at his age Favre is an improvement over both, and he knows the offense.  Favre will also have the benefit of throwing to veteran wide receiver Bernard Berrian, who will be joined by first round draft pick Percy Harvin of Florida.  Harvin has blazing speed and should be a terrific fit on the Metrodome surface.  Tight end Visanthe Shaincoe also gives Favre a reliable target over the middle, and Bobby Wade is a good option in the slot.  The biggest strength for the Vikings though is the running game, anchored by the NFL’s top running back, Adrian Peterson.  The scary thing for opponents is that Peterson worked very hard in the offseason to improve his pass blocking and his receiving ability.  As it is, Peterson won the league’s rushing title last season with 1,760 yards, and that was without a consistent passing game.  If Favre is even just above average, teams will have to respect the passing attack with those receivers, and that could mean even better numbers for Peterson.  Chester Taylor also gives Minnesota a good option for a few carries per game as well as a third down back so they don’t have to wear down Peterson.  The offensive did lose center Matt Birk in free agency, but they still have an excellent left side of the line in tackle Bryant McKinnie and perennial Pro Bowler Steve Hutchinson at guard.  They also drafted Oklahoma’s Phil Loadholt in the second round for depth.

There is also no question the Vikings defensive line is an easy top three unit and probably the league’s best.  Defensive end Jared Allen made a huge splash last year as Minnesota’s big free agent signee with 14.5 sacks, while tackles Kevin and Pat Williams both made the Pro Bowl as well.  The Williams’ could be facing a four game suspension by the league if the courts ultimately rule in the league’s favor that the duo used a banned diuretic last season.  Right now their fate is unknown, but the Vikings are hopeful that they’ll be able to play a full season.  It is worth noting that the Vikings’s first four games are very manageable so a suspension may not cripple the team in any case.  The Vikings’ front seven is also boosted by linebacker E.J. Henderson, who is an excellent tackler.  For years teams have been unable to run against the Vikings, plus they are able to get great pressure on the quarterback.  I see no reason that won’t continue this year.  The secondary did lose safety Darren Sharper to New Orleans, but the coaches also felt his talent was slipping after he intercepted just one pass last year.  The Vikings are confident that Tyrell Johnson can take his place, and the corners are solid, anchored by Antoine Winfield.

The kicking game is in great hands with veteran Ryan Longwell.  Punter Chrs Kluwe took a lot of criticism last year (mainly for not kicking away from Reggie Bush in a Monday night game last year), but he does have a strong leg and the coaches have confidence in him.  Percy Harvin is expected to handle the return duties, and he should be able to make an impact there.

I said before I started this preview that I think the Vikings are headed for the Super Bowl.  They had most of the pieces in place already, and I think Favre will put them over the top.  A decent passing game coupled with the league’s top running game and a very stingy defensive front seven is a tough combination to beat.  In any case they are clearly the class of this division.

2. Green Bay Packers – The Packers as expected had a rough first season post-Favre.  The irony is it wasn’t really Aaron Rodgers’ fault.  Rodgers did a much better job than expected of handling the pressure of replacing the Packer legend, throwing for over 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns.  What doomed the Packers was the defensive side of the ball.  In a six day span in late November, Green Bay surrendered a staggering 86 points in losses to New Orleans and Carolina.  The Packers did finish on a positive note, winning their final game against 0-16 Detroit, but they had lost six straight prior to that, finishing 6-10 overall.  The Packers should be much improved this year, and they are confident that lying in the weeds quietly is a better approach than the big splashes made by their division rivals.

We touched on Rodgers’ season a year ago, and his first full season as a starter certainly exceeded expectations.  Now he needs to put it together when the game is on the line.  The Packers were 0-7 last year in games where the offense got the ball with less than five minutes to go in the game with a chance to tie or win.  Rodgers took that stat personally, and he vows to be better in 2009.  He will have plenty of help from an offense that returns largely intact from a year ago.  Running back Ryan Grant rushed for over 1,200 yards, but his yards per carry dipped from 5.1 in 2007 to 3.9 last year.  To be fair, he played through a hamstring injury last year and is now healthy, so the Packers feel he should be back to his old self.  They also hope to find a complementary back, such as Brandon Jackson, who can spell Grant on occasion and keep him fresh.  The receivers are also strong, with Greg Jennings and Donald Driver both very capable of stretching the field.  The duo combined to catch over 150 balls last year, and if Rodgers improves in his second season as a stater, that number should go up.  Tight end Donald Lee is also an excellent red zone presence as well as a blocker in the running game.  The offensive line is a bunch of unknowns, but it returns intact save for the addition of center Duke Preston from Buffalo and the loss of tackle Mark Tauscher to free agency.  Since the unit is virtually the same from a year ago, the Packers hope the continuity will breed improvement.

Defensively, the Packers got quite possibly the steal of the draft in Boston College nose tackle B.J. Raji at number nine overall.  Raji was clearly the best defensive player available in most scouts’ minds, and his presence should be huge for the Packers in the middle of their defense, especially since they will play a 3-4 this season.  The linebacking core is also starting to mature with former Ohio State standout A.J. Hawk and steady veteran Nick Barnett.  The secondary is anchored by cornerbacks Charles Woodson and Al Harris, both of whom made the Pro Bowl last year despite the struggles of the defense as a whole.  Both are aging, but are still among the best in the league.  Their play will offset that of the young safeties, Atari Bigby and Nick Collins.  I do expect the defense to be better than last year mainly because of the presence of Raji, and I think that could be enough to make the Packers a contender for a wild card slot.

The Packers are set at kicker for a long time with Mason Crosby, who has a very long leg (he kicked a 60-yard field goal in college at Colorado).  Punter is another story however, as Derrick Frost was so horrible he got the boot after 12 games last year.  Jeremy Kapinos of Penn State will take that over this year.  Will Blackmon returned two punts for scores last season, so the Packers do appear to be in good shape there.

I think the Packers could be in play for a wild card.  I like Rodgers and the offense to be better, and I also think the defense will be tougher with the presence of Raji.  The Packers didn’t make many moves in the offseason, but it’s possible their stability could make the difference as opposed to the big shakeups of their prime rivals.

3. Chicago Bears – The Bears have a very different look from the team that made the Super Bowl in 2006.  For years they have been a run and play defense kind of team, winning lots of low scoring games.  Last year they did finish 9-7, but they let a playoff spot slip away with a bad loss at Houston in the final game of the season.  The Bears still have their running game and defense to rely on, but now they have a quarterback to go with it, as they pulled off the offseason’s biggest trade by acquiring Pro Bowl quarterback Jay Cutler from the Broncos.  All of Chicago is ga-ga over Cutler, who is only 25, has a rocket arm, and may be Chicago’s best quarterback in 30 years.  The Bears feel Cutler is the missing piece for a run at the Super Bowl.  While they have good reason to be excited, I don’t see a Super Bowl in Chicago’s future just yet.

Cutler no doubt has posted good numbers in Denver.  Last year he threw for over 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns, but he also threw his share of interceptions, many of them forced into double coverage, and is just 17-20 as a starter.  Cutler also played very poorly in Denver’s final three games last year, resulting in a Broncos’ collapse out of the playoffs.  The Bears do have reason to be very excited about Cutler, for they have gone through a whopping 37 quarterbacks over their last 171 games, a span of nearly 11 seasons.  Given that you can’t blame Chicago for paying a steep price to land a quarterback.  Cutler does have a lot of years ahead of him and is very talented.  Chicago does need to hope that he cleans up his attitude (the Broncos felt many of his interceptions came when he got impatient and frustrated), and Cutler does need to show that he has what it takes to win in the clutch.  The good news for the Bears is they may not need to rely much on their passing game, because Matt Forte is quickly emerging as one of the league’s top running backs.  Forte rushed for over 1,200 yards last year, and he has shown an ability to run inside and outside.  The Bears are counting on the mere presence of Cutler to open up the running game significantly.  They also hope that Cutler’s presence will improve the passing enough to make their offense a threat not seen in Chicago in a long time.  Cutler will have to work magic with a very suspect group of receivers, the best of which is probably Devin Hester, who is still adjusting after transitioning from cornerback.  The Bears do have a good tight end in Greg Olsen, but the rest of the group consists of rookie Juaquin Iglesias of Oklahoma, and a pair of relative no-names in Rashed Davis and Earl Bennett.  The offensive line also took hits with losses of John Tait (retirement) and John St. Clair (to Cleveland).  They did sign veteran Orlando Pace to protect Cutler’s blind side, and Olin Kruetz remains an excellent, albeit aging, center.

Defense has long been a Bears’ staple, and this year shouldn’t be much different.  The defensive line has good talent in Alex Brown, Adewale Ogunleye and Tommie Harris.  The linebackers are outstanding, led by Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs.  Despite all this talent in the front seven, the defense wasn’t always its usual self last year, surrendering 41 and 37 points respectively vs. division rivals Minnesota and Green Bay.  One reason is that their secondary can be considered average at best.  Charles Tillman can’t really be considered a shutdown corner, and Nathan Vasher is a liability against the run, and has also battled injuries the last two seasons.  The Bears did add safety Josh Bullocks from New Orleans.  If the secondary is average again, the Bears will have to rely very heavily on their front seven.

The Bears are in great shape at kicker with Robbie Gould, who has hit on 85 percent of field goals in his career despite kicking in windy Soldier Field, as well as punter Brad Maynard, who placed 40 punts inside the 20-yard line last season.  Devin Hester’s reputation as a returner is well documented, but the Bears might want to be careful not to let him get too distracted by trying to play wide receiver that he loses steam as a returner.  Daniel Manning as well as the rookie Iglesias could be capable of stepping in that role as well.

The Bears could well be a playoff team despite playing in a brutal division.  I know many people in Chicago think Cutler is their knight in shining armor, but I think he has some work to do before he becomes an elite player.  The question marks at receiver, offensive line and secondary could prove to be their undoing.  Despite that, it should be a great battle with the Packers and Vikings in this division.

4. Detroit Lions – Last season was obviously one to forget for the Lions, who became the first team in NFL history to go 0-16.  Most of their games weren’t even close, and perhaps the only positive thing for Lions fans was that the team sent general manager Matt Millen packing after years of ineptitude.  Not surprisingly, the head coach also lost his job, and the team used its first overall draft choice on a new quarterback.  Oh, and the logo is new too, because we all know that makes all the difference.  Of course it will take much more than a new logo to generate success in Detroit, but at least they can’t be any worse this year right?

Clearly there will be a lot of pressure on Matthew Stafford, the talented signal caller from Georgia who was the Lions’ choice at number one overall in the draft.  The Lions are hoping for some good karma here.  See, Stafford went to the same high school as the only legend quarterback in Lions’ history, as well as the last one to lead them to a championship.  That would be Bobby Layne, and the year of that championship was 1957.  The Lions hope that Stafford will prove to be a good selection, and he definitely has the tools to be a good player.  He will have competition this year though from Daunte Culpepper, who has bounced around to several teams but lost 30 pounds in the offseason and has actually looked good in the preseason.  Either way, the Lions hope the position will be improved over last year, when Dan Orlovsky memorably symbolized the futility by running out of the back of the end zone untouched for a safety against the Vikings.  Whoever is at the controls will have the luxury of throwing to one of the league’s top receivers in Calvin Johnson.  Despite the awful quarterback play last year, Johnson ranked fifth in the NFL in yards and first in touchdowns.  With improvement under center, Johnson might be able to post scary numbers (Be sure to tab him in fantasy this year if you can). He will be joined by Bryant Johnson, who comes over from San Francisco and Ronald Curry, signed from Oakland.  Not necessarily household names, but they are decent enough to be able to take some pressure off Johnson.  Second round draft pick Brandon Pettigrew of Oklahoma State also adds an intriguing option.  The Lions top running back is Kevin Smith, who nearly hit 1,000 yards last year, and he will be backed up by Maurice Morris, who is looking for a fresh start after leaving Seattle.  The offensive line wasn’t really addressed save for the addition of no name Daniel Loper from Tennessee.  Odds are the line will be a mess, and that means the offense overall will unfortunately still be a work in progress for Detroit.

New coach Jim Schwartz is frantically trying to get his defensive linemen to bulk up. Last year no one on the line weighed over 300 pounds, which put them at a disadvantage against opposing offensive lines virtually every week.  One of the Detroit’s free agent signings was tackle Grady Jackson from Atlanta, who weighs roughly 345 pounds.  They also drafted Sammie Hill, a 329-pound tackle out of little known Stillman University.  The linebackers should be significantly improved with the additions of Larry Foote, a key player on Pittsburgh’s Super Bowl winning teams in ’05 and ’08, as well as Julian Peterson, who comes over from the Seahawks.  The secondary was also addressed in the offseason, a good call considering they unit picked off just one pass last year.  Phillip Buchanon comes over from Tampa Bay, and the Lions also tabbed Anthony Henry from Dallas.  Couple those additions with holdover Keith Smith, who actually has good cover ability, and I’ll go out on a limb and say the Lions’ secondary will pick off more than one pass this year.

Detroit’s longest tenured player is kicker Jason Hanson.  He was vocal in his displeasure last season, and he is back for another year in the Motor City.  Punter Nick Harris has bounced around to multiple teams, but was very consistent last year (Hey, he had plenty of practice!).  Rookie Derrick Williams from Penn State is a candidate for return duty, as is Avion Cason, who was solid but not spectacular in the role last season.

I will make a bold prediction and say the Lions will not stumble to 0-16 two years in a row.  It may not be in the first few weeks, but there are a few winnable games on their schedule.  The defense is completely rebuilt, and the offense has some talent.  It will take a few years, but believe it or not there is a new direction here.

Coming next: the AFC South

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AFC North Preview

Posted by mizzou1028 on August 28, 2009

Once again, teams listed in predicted order of finish:

1. Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers have certainly been the standard for NFL franchises over a large part of their history.  They have won two of the past four Super Bowls (a league high six total) and seem built for big time success again this year.  Pittsburgh returns largely intact from last season’s championship club, which is fitting for a franchise that seems to symbolize stability in the NFL.  The Steelers also remember 2006, when they missed the playoffs they year after winning the Super Bowl.  They vow to not let that happen again.

The Steelers’ offense returns virtually identical to last year, and that’s bad news for NFL defenses.  The Steelers attack can really be defined by their game winning drive in the Super Bowl last year against Arizona.  Ben Roethlisberger showed everything you would want in a quarterback.  He showed ability to make plays with his feet out of the pocket and avoid critical sacks.  He showed he is willing and able to take a pounding, which not only allows him to be durable and not miss time due to injury, but also allows him to extend plays many quarterbacks won’t.  Even when he scrambles out of the pocket, Roethlisberger is willing to wait that split second longer for a receiver to get open even if it means taking an extra hit at the end of the play.  Roethlisberger has won Super Bowls in his first four years in the league, and the scary part is he can still get even better with experience.  He also has good targets to throw to in veteran Hines Ward and the speedy Santonio Holmes, along with his favorite red zone target, tight end Heath Miller.  Shaun McDonald was also signed from Detroit to provide depth.  The running game might also be even better than last year with the return of Rashard Mendenhall.  The first round pick of ’08 was shelved for the season in week four last year with a broken shoulder.  Mendenhall will join the very capable Willie Parker and should improve a running game that believe it or not ranked just 23rd in the NFL last season.  The fact the Steelers won it all with that stat is incredible, and they should benefit from a better running game this year.  The Steelers offensive line isn’t regarded as a top unit in the league and certainly isn’t flashy, but the entire line returns intact and continuity is never a bad thing.  Besides, they obviously got the job done well enough for the team to win the Super Bowl.

The defense did sustain two losses in linebacker Larry Foote (now with Detroit) and cornerback Bryant McFadden (gone to Arizona).  The Steelers do however still boast a sure top five defensive player in linebacker James Harrison, who turned the Super Bowl in Pittsburgh’s favor with a 100-yard interception return TD.  The defensive front seven also boasts other good talent in nose tackle Casey Hampton, defensive end Aaron Smith and linebacker James Farrior.  The Steelers also added more depth in the draft, selecting defensive end Ziggy Hood from Missouri in the first round.  His 6-3, 300 frame should fit right in with the Steelers’s smashmouth philosophy.  The secondary is also still very solid, anchored by Pro Bowl safety Troy Polamalu.  Cornerbacks William Gay and Deshea Townsend will need to step up to offset the loss of McFadden.

It is also surprising to realize that the Steelers really played musical chairs at punter last season (not that they needed one too often), but Daniel Sepulveda is back to take that job again after undergoing ACL surgery last season.  Kicker Jeff Reed is among the best in the business and has learned how to handle to tricky kicking conditions at Heinz Field, especially in the open end of the stadium.  The Steelers do hope that third round draft choice Mike Wallace of Ole Miss can emerge as a capable kick returner, but Mewelde Moore can handle those duties as well.

I say the Steelers are as close to a lock as you can get to returning to the playoffs.  They have shown over the years they can stand up to tough competition, they can win on the road, and they know how to win.   Factor in that they are still motivated, and the Steelers should repeat as division champs.

2. Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens bounced back last year to make the AFC title game, even though the had a rookie coach and a rookie quarterback.  The fact that both of those positions had changed tells you that things weren’t so good the year before.  The Ravens have a solid veteran presence in other areas, which helped them overcome a 2-3 start.  At one point Baltimore had won seven out of eight games, and they won playoff road games at Miami and Tennessee.  However, the Ravens were 0-3 against the Steelers, including the AFC title game loss.  Baltimore knows that in order to take the next step, they need to learn how to beat Pittsburgh.

The Ravens have always been known as a defensive team, and that’s still the identity and strength, but the offense also proved they could score points last year.  Quarterback Joe Flacco shocked almost everyone in his rookie season, Flacco showed good ability to read defenses, has a strong arm, and an ability to make plays with his feet.  He is the only signal caller to win two road playoff games as a rookie, and also posted a solid 90.2 quarterback rating, which is among the best ever for a rookie.  With another year of experience, Flacco could be even better this season.  He is also pleased to have veteran receiver Derrick Mason back for another season.  Mason retired during the offseason, but it wasn’t long before he changed his mind and said he got the itch to play one more season.  He’ll be paired with the talented Mark Clayton, who along with tight end Todd Heap gives the Ravens an underrated group of receivers for Flacco to find.  The running game should also be a strength of the team, for Willis McGahee is showing a renewed attitude after a disappointing season last year in which he rushed for under 700 yards.  Ray Rice showed lots of flash as a rookie last season, and could prove to be a good compliment to McGahee.  The odd man out could be Le’Ron McClain, who was actually Baltimore’s leading rusher last year, but he has been getting more work at fullback and could be limited to goal line duty.    The offensive line did a great job last season, and the Ravens feel they have fortified it with the addition of first round pick Michael Oher of Ole Miss, and the signing of center Matt Birk from Minnesota.

The Ravens’ defense has consistently been a top three unit for virtually the entire decade, and there isn’t much reason to think it won’t be terrific again.  Linebacker Ray Lewis could be a future Hall of Famer, and his enthusiasm and intensity trickles down to the entire defense.  Terrell Suggs is a terrific pass rusher, and the Ravens also have good push on the edge with Trevor Pryce and Haloti Ngata.  The front seven will feel the loss of Bart Scott to the Jets, but they hope that some of that void can be filled by second round pick Paul Kruger of Utah.  The secondary is still very good with ballhawking safety Ed Reed leading the way.  The Ravens also have veteran corners in Samari Rolle and Fabian Washington, and they hope new addition Dominique Foxworth will add depth as well. The Ravens defense should be stingy again, but age could be a concern for this veteran group.

The Ravens lost veteran kicker Matt Stover to free agency, so they will go with an unknown in Steve Hauschka.  Punter Sam Koch is solid, the Ravens hope the return game will be solidified with the addition of the speedy Chris Carr from Tennessee.

Baltimore certainly has the talent to return to the playoffs.  The defense will keep them in every game and the veteran leadership is always a plus.  They do will face stiff competition in the AFC, and age and injuries could catch up with them.  The key coud well be the play of Flacco in his second season at quarterback.

3. Cincinnati Bengals – It has been 19 years since Cincinnati has won a playoff game.  The Bengals have long been a symbol for league futility, except for their division title in 2005.  Even then, they stubbed their toe in a home playoff loss to the eventual Super Bowl champion Steelers.  Since then, the Bengals have not come close to achieving their potential, especially with all the talent they have had on offense.  Fans are getting restless, games may not sell out this year, and last year’s 0-8 start only made things worse.  The good news for Bengal nation is they did win their final three games last year, and hope may be coming.

For starters, Carson Palmer is back under center.  Palmer missed most of last season with an elbow injury.  Palmer managed to avoid offseason surgery, and the Bengals hope he will be back to his old self.  Palmer is quite possibly the most accurate deep passer in the league, and he is outstanding in the pocket.  There is no question in my mind that Palmer is a no brainer top 5 QB when healthy, and his presence should spark something in the Bengals’ offense.  The Bengals did lose start wideout T.J. Houshmanzadeh to Seattle, but they still have Chad Ochocinco (I really want to type “Johnson” but the dude actually changed his name legally).  I believe that Ochocinco has a renewed attitude this year and something to prove.  He wants to prove he is not a me guy and that he can really help the team win.  The Bengals also replaced Houshmanzadeh by raiding the Jets for Laveranues Coles.  Coles is still very capable, and paired with third wideout Chris Henry, the passing game has the potential to be very dangerous as it was in ’05.  The Bengals also found a very pleasant surprise in their running game last year in Cedric Benson.  The former top five pick from the Bears has found new life in the Queen City, and could be in line for another good year if defenses are concerned with stopping the passing attack.  The Bengals do have issues along the offensive line, losing Stacy Andrews and Levi Jones in free agency, and as of yet have not signed their first round draft pick, tackle Andre Smith from Alabama.  The selection of Smith with the sixth overall pick was a curious one indeed being that he missed most of the scouting combine and showed very questionable attitude during the pre-draft period.  Oh, and he was woefully out of shape too.  Now he is embroiled in a lengthy holdout.  It is imperative that the Bengals get good play from the line so they can keep Palmer healthy.  Right now, that is a question mark.

The Bengals did make an effort to beef up their defense in the offseason.  They signed defensive tackle Tank Johnson away from Dallas, and while he has had character issues in the past, the Bengals hope he will benefit from the fresh start.  They are desperate after getting just 11 sacks from their down linemen last season.  The Bengals also addressed linebacker in the draft for the second straight year, tabbing USC linebacker Ray Maualuga in the second round.  I thought Maualuga was clear first round talent, so the Bengals appear to have gotten great value there.  Paired with last year’s first round pick Keith Rivers, The Bengals’ linebackers appear to be on the way up.  The Cincinnati secondary also benefited from the Cowboys’ overhaul, as safety Roy Williams also signed with the Bengals.  Cincinnati does have decent corners in Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph, so Williams’ presence should help .  Overall, the Bengal D should be at least somewhat improved this season.

Kicker Shayne Graham is one of the best in the league.  The Bengals think so much of him they used their franchise tag on him.  Fifth round draft pick Kevin Huber is projected to be the starting punter, so that area could end up being an adventure for the Bengals.  Unknowns Andre Caldwell and Antonio Chatman will handle the return duties.

Cincinnati is trying to rebuild.  They seem to have added some good pieces and with Palmer healthy there should be some improvement.  This is not a playoff team yet, but they might be moving back in the right direction.

4. Cleveland Browns – The Browns fell back to Earth last year after a surprise run in 2007 that almost had them in the playoffs.  Last year the team took several steps back thanks to a quarterback controversy that still lingers and a six game losing streak to close the season in which they didn’t score a single offensive touchdown and got shut out in their final two contests.  Not surprisingly, this cost Romeo Crennel his job as head coach.  He was replaced ironically by fellow former Patriots assistant Eric Mangini.

The Browns still do not know who will be under center week one against the Vikings.  Last year Derek Anderson had the job at the start of the season only to lose it to Brady Quinn in November.  Neither one performed well, and now the competition is still open through the preseason.  It had seemed to be Quinn’s job for good when he got it last year, being that he was Cleveland’s first round pick in 2007, but he performed so poorly that it opened the door back up for Anderson.  Neither player has done enough to gain an edge yet in preseason, so this could be shaping up to be another year of musical chairs at the position for the Browns, and that is never a good thing.  The Browns do have a very talented wideout in Braylon Edwards, but he can’t do it all by himself.  Second round picks Brian Robiskie of Ohio State and Mohamed Massoquoi of Georgia will be counted on heavily to contribute, as will journeyman wideout David Patton and tight end Steve Heiden.  The running game could also be a question mark, even though Jamal Lewis still has the talent to be an outstanding tailback.  Lewis still rushed for over 1,000 last year, but he didn’t have a single 100-yard game.  It wouldn’t come as a surprise if Jerome Harrison got more carries as the year went on.  The offensive line is a mixed bag, for left tackle Joe Thomas has made two Pro Bowls, and Eric Steinbach is solid alongside him at guard, but the line will be anchored by rookie center Alex Mack of California.  Mack was the team’s first round draft pick, and will need to learn under fire quickly.

The defense will definitely have a new look.  Mangini brought along a staggering six players from his old defense with the Jets to Cleveland (Eric Barton, David Bowens, Kenyon Coleman, Abram Elam, C.J. Mosley and Hank Poteat).  For those keeping score at home, that’s that’s two defensive ends, two linebackers, one cornerback and one safety.  None of those players is exactly a household name among football fanatics, and it’s not like the Jets defense was that great at stopping people last year. Mangini obviously sees something he likes to bring them all over, or perhaps he just doesn’t want to deal with the unfamilar.   The new additions will join defensive tackle Shaun Rodgers, who was Cleveland’s big ticket free agent signing before last season.  The linebackers took a big hit with the retirement of Willie McGinest and the departure of Andra Davis to Denver in free agency.  Needless to say, the entire Browns defense still looks like a need area.

The special teams might be the one strength of the team.  Kicker Phil Dawson and punter Dave Zastudil are both very reliable, and Josh Cribbs might well be the most excting kick returner in the NFL.  Cribbs is so dangerous that he’ll be counted on to set the offense up in good enough field position that they won’t have to do much to score.

A rebuilding year is definitely in the cards for the Browns.  There are just too many need areas to expect a good year.  At some point they need to get the quarterback situation figured out, and that is the first step.  This team is very young.  If they can show improvement throughout the year, they might be able to at least have something to look forward to in 2010.

Coming next: the NFC North

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NFC East Preview

Posted by mizzou1028 on August 27, 2009

Teams listed in predicted order of finish:

1. Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles certainly peaked at the right time last season, winning four of their final five regular season games to sneak into the playoffs.  They then won playoff road games in Minnesota and at the Giants before losing a tough NFC title game battle to Arizona.  This year the Eagles are very confident they can keep that momentum going and take the next step.

Offensively, the Eagles are as talented as any team in the NFL.  Start with Brian Westbrook, arguably the most talented back in the NFL.  Westbrook did have offseason surgery that he hopes will extend his career, but so far it appears that Eagles fans can expect another big year out of their star back.  The Eagles did also draft LeSean McCoy out of Pittsburgh in the second round of the draft in hopes they can give Westbrook an occasional break and keep him fresh.  The passing game is also among the league’s best thanks to signal caller Donovan McNabb.  I really think McNabb does not get the respect he should as a top quarterback in the league.  After he got benched at halftime in an embarrassing loss at Baltimore last season, McNabb played some of the best football of his career in leading the Eagles to the NFC title game.  The receivers are solid with last year’s rookie standout DeSean Jackson and this year’s first round pick, Jeremy Maclin of Missouri (I might be biased as a Mizzou alum, but I think Maclin was clearly the best wideout available in the draft).  Factor in the dangerous Kevin Curtis, and Philadelphia has no shortage of targets that can stretch the field.  Philadelphia also boosted the offensive line with additions of Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters (from Buffalo) and guard Stacy Andrews from the Bengals.  Oh yeah, and they also signed this Vick guy that’s supposed to be talented.  In all seriousness, do not underestimate Michael Vick’s potential impact here.  The Eagles have possibilities of lining him up at tailback, pairing him with Westbrook on plays where either could run the ball, using Vick in the Wildcat, using him to spell McNabb for a few plays, or even having him and McNabb on the field together.  This is of course assuming Vick is still the talent he was two years ago.  Keep in mind Vick will not be allowed to play until at least week six.

The defense in Philly will have a very different look because they lost captain and fan favorite Brian Dawkins to Denver in free agency.  Dawkins was the heart and soul of the Eagles defense and he will be sorely missed, not just in the secondary but throughout the entire defensive unit and in the locker room as a leader.  It is imperative that someone else on the defense take the reigns as leader, or else there will be complete chaos and it could end up dooming the Eagles.  The secondary itself is still loaded with talent thanks to Asante Samuel and Sheldon Brown at corner.  The front seven is still a fairly young group, but they did rise to the task last year.  Tackles Mike Patterson and Brodrick Bunkley are good run stuffers, and linebacker Trent Cole has shown great ability to rush the passer.  The Eagles will also be impacted by the summer passing of defensive coordinator Jim Johnson, who sadly died of cancer.

The Eagles don’t have many concerns on special teams.  Kicker David Akers is among the best, and punter Sav Rocca does a capable job.  With Jackson and Maclin both extremely capable of handling returns, along with new addition Ellis Hobbs from New England, Philadelphia will be dominating the field position battle more often than not.

Overall, I don’t think there is much doubt the Eagles will return to the playoffs, and I like them to prevail in this very difficult division primarily because of their offensive firepower and special teams.  Plus, I’ve learned not to pick against Andy Reid.

2. New York Giants – For awhile last season, the Giants looked every bit like the defending champs.  In fact they were pretty much dominating the league, starting 11-1 and winning many games that weren’t close.  The turning point came when Plaxico Burress accidently shot himself in a New York nightclub.  The Giants proceeded to lose three of their final four regular season contests and then looked listless in a home playoff loss to the division rival Eagles.  Burress is gone, being that he’s about to serve a two year jail sentence.  The question for the Giants is can the move past that and get back to their Super Bowl level?  They think they can.

With Eli Manning at quarterback, that is the half the battle for the Giants.  Manning recently signed a 6-year $97 million extension, so he will be around for a long time.  More importantly for the Giants, he is starting to show that he might just be as good a quarterback as his older brother after all.  The Giants also have good running back talent with Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw.  Jacobs is considered the starter, but both will be major factors in the running game.  Don’t forget that Derrick Ward rushed for over 1,000 yards last year in a supposed backup role to Jacobs, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Bradshaw is able to duplicate that.  As for the question of replacing Burress at wide receiver, much of that burden falls on their first round draft pick, Hakeem Nicks of North Carolina.  I think the Giants got great value considering they were picking toward the end of the round and several other wideouts were already gone.  Nicks looks like he has the potential to be a factor right away.  The Giants also have the capable Steve Smith as well as Dominik Hixon (who I am still upset my Broncos let go).  Tight end Kevin Boss also made Giants fans forget Jeremy Shockey pretty quickly last year.  The offensive line is one of the best around, anchored by Pro Bowlers Shaun O’Hara and Chris Snee.

If there is a reason besides Burress’ off the field behavior for the Giants’ collapse at the end of last year, it was injuries along the defensive line.  New York is thrilled to have defensive end Osi Umemyiora back, for he sat out last year with a knee injury.  The Giants also sustained a major injury to defensive tackle Justin Tuck, whose presence is vital to creating pass rushing opportunities for Umenyiora and Mathias Kiwanuka.  The linebacking core is reasonably solid with veteran Antonio Pierce leading the way, but the secondary could be an issue.  The Giants did sign safety C.C. Brown from Houston in free agency, but he can’t be considered a viable starter.  The key will be the play of corners Aaron Ross and Corey Webster.  The Giants spent big bucks to keep Webster from leaving via free agency, so they have confidence in him.

Lawrence Tynes is back as the full time kicker this year, after he missed significant time last year, first to injury and then sitting behind the ageless John Carney.  Carney has retired, and the equally capable Tynes is back.  Pro Bowler Jeff Feagles is an oustanding punter, and Dominik Hixon is a very good returner.  Not much to complain about on special teams for the G-men.

I think the Giants could well be a playoff team, but they do play in arguably the toughest division in football.  Three of their first four are on the road, so the Giants need to hope they don’t dig themselves a hole they can’t get out of.

3. Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys were needless to say a major disappointment last year.  I will admit that I picked them to win the Super Bowl.  Things started out good for Dallas with a 4-1 start, but things started to go south fast.  The Cowboys ended up losing three of their last four, and missed the playoffs altogether after getting trounced by Philadelphia 44-6 in the final game.  Gone are Terrell Owns, Zach Thomas, Roy Williams (the safety, though the receiver is still there), and Pacman Jones.  In is a new glitzy stadium and supposedly a better attitude.

Quarterback Tony Romo has a very good record as a starter (27-12), but he is just 5-10 in December and January when the pressure is on.  Romo has a terrific arm and has shown ability to make great plays, but now he needs to put everything together and show consistency.  The Cowboys did have a rough stretch last year when Romo was out with a fractured pinikie, so they signed Jon Kitna, who is a very capable backup.  The Cowboys do have few worries in the running game with Marion Barber, who did have a good year last year, and Felix Jones, who looked nothing short of outstanding before suffering hamstring and toe injuries in the sixth game.  Both are healthy and could make the Cowboys running game a real threat.  The biggest offensive change is at receiver, where Owens is gone, and Roy Williams is the main guy now.  Williams was largely a disappointment after Dallas surrendered three draft picks to get him midseason last year, but he might be better suited to be the number one guy.  Jason Witten also gives Romo a great target at tight end, and the Cowboys do have depth with Patrick Crayton and Miles Austin.  There is no question the talent level will be down without Owens, but the attitude and chemistry of the offense could be much improved.  The biggest concern on this side of the ball is the O-line, which is aging and doesn’t have much depth.

The defensive side of the ball has been completely retooled, but it remains to be seen if this will be a good thing.  An underrated loss could be defensive end Chris Canty, who was one of Dallas’ more effective pass rushers.  Nose tackle Jay Ratliff did have seven sacks last year, and DeMarcus Ware is an excellent pass rusher as well.  Beyond that, Dallas will go with several unknowns on defense.  Greg Ellis really started to slow with age last season, and Anthony Spencer has not even come close to justifying his selection as a first round pick in 2007.  The Cowboys did sign veteran Keith Brooking from Atlanta, and that should help stabilize the linebackers a little.  Terence Newman has the potential to be a shutdown corner, but he has not been healthy for the past two seasons.  The rest of the secondary is average, and will miss the loss of the other Roy Williams.

The Cowboys will have punter Mat McBriar back after he broke his foot last season.  Kicker Nick Folk has also been excellent, connecting on 46 of 53 field goals the last two seasons.  A healthy Felix Jones should also make a difference in the return game, and Patrick Crayton is capable there as well.

This could well be an interesting season in Dallas.  Jerry Jones wants to win bad, especially now that he has opened his new, expensive pleasure palace.  The Cowboys play a very tough schedule, largely because of the division they play in.  The Cowboys believe they have improved chemistry and that will help them win.  It may or may not.  If it doesn’t, expect coach Wade Phillips to be out.  Mike Shanahan could be coaching this team in 2010.

4. Washington Redskins – The Redskins are always a tough team to figure out.  Over the years they have made several big splashes in free agency, or in the coaching ranks, or in some other way.  There are always expected to be good but never seem to be a serious contender.  Last year looked good with a 4-1 start, including wins at Dallas and Philadelphia.  Things started to unravel though, and Washington finished a mediocre 8-8.  The Redskins made another big splash this offseason, but it remains to be seen if this team will be any better than medicore in the rugged NFC East.

This is a very important year for quarterback Jason Campbell.  The Redskins were rumored to be very involved in the Jay Cutler sweepstakes, but ultimately couldn’t swing the deal, perhaps because Denver may not have been enamored with Campbell.  The Redskins hope that Campbell will be highly motivated this season, for they feel he hasn’t shown the fire they expect out of the quarterback position thus far in his career.  One fact many don’t know is Campbell’s quarterback rating has actually gone up every season, so there is a chance he could reach his potential this year.  The running game is in great shape with Clinton Portis, who is a workhorse and isn’t afraid of a high carry total, and Ladell Betts, who has proven capable of spelling Portis when necessary.  There is also talent at receiver with Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El, as well as tight end Chris Cooley.  The offensive line could be a problem, as it is a very aging unit and doesn’t have much depth.  The Redskins offense has been puzzling at times because the pieces seem to be there for the most part, but they have been unable to really get it together.

The Redskins wasted no time in free agency, spending $100 million over seven years to sign defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth from Tennessee.  The Redskins wanted Haynesworth so badly they signed him on the first day that free agency was open.  He could prove to be worth it, as his presence alone usually ties up two blockers, allowing other players to get pressure on the quarterback and stop the run.  The downside to this move is that Haynesworth has missed time due to injury more than once in his career, so this could be a risky investment.  The Redskins also addressed defensive line in the draft, tabbing Brian Orakpo from Texas with their first pick. The linebackers could also be in good shape with London Fletcher leading the way.  Fletcher is a very underrated player who should be regarded as one of the best tacklers in football and a guy who can make plays all over the field.  The cornerbacks are also outstanding with Fred Smoot and DeAngelo Hall, whom the Redskins signed to a 6-year extension in February.  It’s amazing how much better Hall played in a Redskins uniform than when he was in Oakland last season.

The special teams were a huge problem for Washington last season. Percentage wise, Shaun Suisham was the worst kicker in the league, so it is puzzling that he is still around.  The punting game was also ineffective last year, but the Redskins addressed that by raiding the Colts for Hunter Smith.  Randle El has the talent to be a good punt returner, but he has yet to show that potential with the Redskins.

Washington has the talent to be a playoff team.  On paper this looks like it could be a dangerous team, but everything seems so precarious (the play of Campbell and the health of Haynesworth in particular), that it seems like it could fall apart like a house of cards any moment.  Coach Jim Zorn has to win to save his job.

Coming next: the AFC North

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AFC East Preview

Posted by mizzou1028 on August 26, 2009

We’re about halfway through the preaseason, and that means it’s about time for me to make my predictions on the season.  I will point out last year was just flat dismal for yours truly in this regard.   Neither of my two Super Bowl picks even made the playoffs,  and in fact I missed on half of the playoff teams.  Heck, I was 0 for 4 on conference championship game picks.  (If you’re still reading with baited breath to see what I’m picking this year I am stunned).  Nevertheless, I will attempt to do better this year.  On the plus side, I had a roughly 68 percent success rate on individual games last season, and that’s not bad considering how tough it is to pick today’s NFL.  In an effort to do justice to each team before the season, we will look at one division at a time, and wrap things up right before the season with the full unveiling of wild card and Super Bowl picks.  Today we look at the AFC East, with teams listed in predicted order of finish.

1. New England Patriots – Last year the Patriots got flat robbed.  Despite finishing 11-5, winning their final four games in the process (including a 47-7 thrashing of NFC champ Arizona), they missed the playoffs, while 8-8 San Diego got in.  Oh, and they still posted a good record despite losing Tom Brady to injury in week one.  Brady is back, and that alone has the Patriots poised to retake this division and maybe return to the top of the AFC elite.

Brady’s return should mean better numbers for Randy Moss.  While Matt Cassel did an admirable job filling in, his arm isn’t that of Brady’s.  I expect a big bounce back year for Moss, and I once again expect the big play to be an important part of New England’s attack.  Wes Welker should also benefit from Brady’s return, and could well top 100 catches again in the slot.  The Patriots also got a boost in the running game with the signing of Fred Taylor, who while aged is still very capable, and should take some pressure off Laurence Maroney.  The offensive line remains solid as well with few changes from last year’s unit that paved the way for 2,278 rushing yards last year, the most for the Patriots since 1985.  If the Patriots can also get solid tight end production from Benjamin Watson and trade acquisition Alex Smith, the offense could return to the scary good levels of 2007.  New England did lose their play caller from last year, as Josh McDaniels is now the head coach in Denver, but that shouldn’t prove to be much of a problem.  Remember the Patriots replaced Charlie Weis too after he took the Notre Dame head coaching job.

Defensively, the Patriots must stay healthy to be effective.  This is true for any team of course, but in New England’s case they are battling age and a lack of depth in this area.  The 3-4 defense favored by Bill Belichick relies on solid pressure, particularly from the nose tackle.  New England has a solid one there in Vince Wilfork, but ends Ty Warren and Richard Seymour both battled injury last season.  If both are healthy, the Patriots should be able to get the rush they need.  If not, the pressure will be on a linebacking core that lost Mike Vrabel to the Chiefs.  There is no reason to think that Jerrod Mayo shouldn’t duplicate his outstanding rookie season, but he can’t do it all by himself.  New England may need one of their young unknowns to step up.  The Patriots added Shawn Springs in the secondary, but that could still be question mark for a unit that gave up 27 touchdown passes last season, second most in the NFL.

New England’s special teams remains solid with kicker Stephen Gostkowski and punt Chris Hanson.  Kickoff returns could be an issue after the loss of Ellis Hobbs (traded to Philadelphia). New England also has a new long snapper after the departure of Lonie Paxton to Denver.

Overall expect a big year for the Patriots.  It will be a major upset if they don’t make the playoffs, particularly after they missed them last year.  Five of their first eight games are at home, but four of their final six are on the road.  New England also plays in London this year against Tampa Bay.

2. Buffalo Bills – The good people of Buffalo have had a tough decade.  The Bills have missed the playoffs nine years in a row and the fans have had very little to cheer about.  Despite a promising 5-1 start last year, they flamed out and finished 7-9, losing four of their final five games.  In an effort to turn their fortunes around, the Bills had a very active offseason.  I think it will be an improvement, but will it be enough to get them back in the playoffs?

Trent Edwards is a good quarterback when he is healthy.  His record as a starter is just 12-11, but I think he showed improvement in several areas last year, and this year he might finally have the weapons to really help him.  The Bills made perhaps the league’s biggest splash by bringing in Terrell Owens.  While Owens certainly has his problems, he does have a proven track record of being extremely successful his first year in a new place.  Hence, the genius of the Bills to sign him to a one year contract.  With Owens around, defenses can’t key on Lee Evans anymore.  Factor in Josh Reed, and suddenly the Bills have a very dangerous trio of wideouts.  I think Owens’ impact will be staggering, not only for his own numbers but for his impact on the rest of the offense.  Unfortunately for the Bills, running back Marshawn Lynch is suspended for the first three games of the season, but I expect a big year from him once he is in the lineup.  Until then, Fred Jackson should help provide some depth, and new acquisition Dominic Rhodes should be good for a handful of carries as well.  Buffalo also will have a completely retooled offensive line, so it remains to be seen if those changes will be good or bad, particularly the loss of Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters to the Eagles.

The defense should be improved, if nothing else because most of the players are back and should have a better grasp of the Tampa 2 scheme.  Marcus Stroud is a good a defensive tackle as there is in the league, but the Bills will need to get better pressure on the quarterback.  Last year they accounted for just 46 sacks and takeaways, which ranked near the bottom of the NFL.  The addition of first round draft pick Aaron Maybin of Penn State could provide a big impact in this area.  That is, if he’s not too far behind after a lengthy holdout.  I really like their linebackers, particularly Paul Posluszky, who returns after suffering a broken arm last season.  The secondary has talent, but they will need an improved pass rush in order to see better interception totals.

The special teams is a good as any around.  Returners Leodis McKelvin and Roscoe Parrish can be scary returning punts or kickoffs, Kicker Rian Lindell and punter Brian Moorman are also very solid.

If the Bills don’t get walloped  and get their confidence shattered in a week one Monday nighter at New England, their schedule might just be conducive for a playoff run.  However, their fate may hinge on a tough final three games: home vs. New England, at Atlanta, and home vs. the Colts.

3. Miami Dolphins – There is no doubt that Miami made one of the most staggering turnarounds in NFL history last season, recovering from a 1-15 finish in 2007 to an 11-5 effort last year and a division championship.  However, reality hit when they were waxed by the Ravens at home in the first round of the playoffs.  Miami introduced the Wildcat formation to the league with tremendous success, and it appears that the culture is changed in South Florida for the better.  Now they face the task of doing it again.

Miami had to be pleasantly surprised by the play of Chad Pennington at quarterback last season.  It’s funny that if the Jets didn’t sign Brett Favre before last season, Pennington never would have been available.  While Pennington is successful for now, the shadows of Chad Henne, Miami’s QB of the future, and of Pat White, Miami’s second round pick out of West Virginia, loom large especially if Pennington struggles early.  The running game is very solid with Ronnie Brown and a much more focused Ricky Williams.  Brown’s presence and ability to throw should make the Wildcat effective for Miami again this year should they choose to use it.  There are some questions about the receivers.  Ted Ginn Jr. has shown promise but has not played to anywhere near the potential he showed at Ohio State, and Greg Camarillo, while capable, doesn’t strike fear into opponents the way many other receivers do.  The Dolphins should have a good offensive line if they’re healthy, especially since a solid line is a trademark of teams run by Bill Parcells.

The Dolphins released veteran Vonnie Holliday, but should benefit along the defensive line from the return of Jason Taylor.  Taylor played in Washington last year after falling out of favor with Parcells, but is now back in Miami, and if he’s his old self, Miami should see improved sack totals.  Miami also needs a great year from start linebacker Joey Porter.  Porter was a force last year with 17.5 sacks, and with Taylor’s presence it might even open up him for more sack chances.  The Dolphins secondary is young, but the Dolphins feel they should be upgraded last year with the return of Will Allen and the additions of draft picks Vontae Davis from Illinois and Sean Smith from Utah.

Miami has unknowns at kicker (Dan Carpenter) and punter (Brandon Fields) but both did a very serviceable job last season.  The Dolphins really need more out of the return game, especially from Ginn Jr.  The Dolphins drafted him 10th overall in 2007 in large part because of his return ability.  He needs to start showing that in order for the Dolphins to really justify that pick.

The pressure is on for the Dolphins to return to the playoffs and take the next step.  Their first three games (at Atlanta, home vs. Indy, and at San Diego) will make a good start difficult.  Not to mention their last game against Pittsburgh could prove to be a tough hurdle to overcome for a playoff spot.

4. New York Jets – The Jets were off to the races at the start of last year.  At one point they sat 8-3 after two big roads wins over the Patriots and Titans, and were poised to make a playoff run behind Brett Favre.  Suddenly Favre stumbled, the Jets lost four of their last five, and they missed the playoffs.  Certainly not what they envisioned after surrendering three first round picks to get Favre.  Favre is gone, and so is coach Eric Mangini.

Former Ravens defensive coordinator Rex Ryan takes over as head coach, and the Jets hope he can make the defense as nasty as unit in Baltimore has been for years.  One of the first things Ryan did though was address the other side of the ball, trading up to take USC quarterback Mark Sanchez fourth overall in the draft.  The Jets hope that a recipe of a rookie coach and quarterback will mean success, as it did for Atlanta and Baltimore last season.  After what those teams did last year, I’m not going to discount anything.  However, rookie coaches and quarterbacks together generally aren’t a very good combination, and last year for the Falcons and Ravens seems to be the exception, not the rule.  That being said, Sanchez has a rocket arm and he’ll be the starter at some point this year, and he should have it week one based on his preseason performance over Kellen Clemens.  New York does have an excellent running game with the physical Thomas Jones and the speedy Leon Washington, and both of them running behind fullback Tony Richardson, who has several Pro Bowl appearances on his resume.  What has caused me serious head scratching is the Jets’ receiving core.  For some reason they dumped Laveraneus Coles and tight end Chris Baker, and didn’t really replace either.  They still have Jerricho Cotchery, but when David Clowney is listed as a starting wideout on the depth chart, that’s not a good sign.  New starting tight end Dustin Keller can catch, but isn’t near the blocker Baker is.  That means Keller isn’t really a good fit for smashmouth style that Ryan wants to implement.  The good news for the Jets is they have a very good offensive line, led by Alan Faneca and Damien Woody.

Defensively, the Jets could well show their age along the line.  The Jets will play a 3-4 under Ryan, and all three starting defensive linemen are over 30.  Granted, Shaun Ellis and Kris Jenkins can still play, but the Jets’ lack of depth behind them is almost alarming considering their age.  Rex Ryan did raid his old defense in Baltimore for linebacker Bart Scott, who is a tackling machine and should prove to be an excellent leader in Ryan’s new defense.  New York’s other linebackers are underrated and could really benefit from the new scheme, particularly Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas.  Ryan also overhauled the secondary, highlighted by the acquisition of cornerback Lito Shepherd from the Eagles.  Shepherd was in Andy Reid’s doghouse in Philly, but could benefit from a fresh start.

The Jets do have a decent kicker in  Jay Feely, and their return game is among the league’s best with Washington back there, but their biggest question mark is punter.  Right now that position is still unsettled.  It might seem insignificant, but if the Jets fail to move the ball offensively, the lack of a good punter could prove to be a real problem.

I think the Jets are in a rebuilding year.  The running game is good and the defense should be improved, but I just don’t like the idea of a rookie quarterback in New York without reliable targets to throw to.  I think Sanchez could well have an excellent career, but I think the Jets are a year away from contending again.  They tried to win with Favre last year and it backfired, and now they have to pick up the pieces.  A rigorous schedule doesn’t help either.

Coming Next: the NFC East.

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