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Week Ten Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on November 7, 2008

Obviously we’re off to a flying start this week after being incorrect on the Thursday night game, but as I’ve said I am ecstatic that I was wrong and the Broncos didn’t lose.  Before we get to the picks, bad news for the Broncos today, as Ryan Torain is done for the year with a torn ACL.  Is there anyone out there healthy enough to play running back?  Anyone?  We’ll delve more into the Broncos’ running back quandry next week, but in the meantime, on to the picks. 

Last Week: 8-6 (.571)   Season: 79-50 (.612)

– Patriots over Bills: This should be a great game.  Both teams are coming off close losses, and both are in the midst of a three way tie for the division lead.  The Bills will be fired up after losing two division games in a row, but I pick New England mainly because they always seem to win every time I give up on them.  Bill Belichick has done maybe the best coaching job of his career this season, and the Patriots should have enough in the tank to win this big division game at home.  Trent Edwards has not played well on the road, while Matt Cassel has done more than a serviceable job for the Patriots, especially at Gillette Stadium.  In a close game like this, it will be the quarterback play that will make the difference and I actually give the nod to Cassel in this one.  Keep in mind these teams meet in Buffalo the last week of the season, and that could be for the AFC East title. 

– Dolphins over Seahawks: This definitely has the look of a mismatch.  The Dolphins have to qualify as one of the league’s top surprises with a 4-4 record at the midway point following a 1-15 effort last season.  Miami’s run defense has done a superb job all season, especially last week when they held the Broncos to just 14 yards rushing.  This spells bad news for Seattle, which has to start Seneca Wallace at quarterback for one more week while Matt Hasselbeck recovers from injury.  The Dolphins are believing that they are a contender, while the Seahawks are on their way to what is easily the worst season in the Mike Holmgren era.  Couple that with the fact Miami is at home, and you have what should be an easy Dolphins victory.   This is my eliminator pick this week mainly because the Seahawks have been so atrocious. 

– Jets over Rams: New York is also involved in the three way tie for the AFC East lead, and they should be able to enjoy an easy home win in this one.  The Rams showed life the first few games of the Jim Haslett era, but they have very quickly come back to Earth.  Steven Jackson is benched for the time being because Haslett doesn’t believe he’s giving full effort, and the Rams defense got exposed big time last week in the loss to Arizona.  The Jets have quietly won three of their past four games, including a surprising road win last week in Buffalo.  Even if Brett Favre goes into his throwing gift interceptions mode, the Rams won’t have enough horses to keep up in this one.  If nothing else, the Jets should be able to get a big rushing day from Thomas Jones.

– Ravens over Texans: This game was originally scheduled to be played in week two, but was moved due to Hurricane Ike.  Houston has come back to Earth after a scorching three week period after a loss to Minnesota last week and the injury to quarterback Matt Schaub.  This plays right into Baltimore’s hands: backup QB (Sage Rosenfels) versus the always tough Ravens defense.  Houston still has enough weapons in the passing game that they’ll be able to move the ball some, but the Ravens are quickly proving that they deserve to be in the playoff mix.  Baltimore’s defense is quickly regaining its reputation as one of the league’s best, and that has allowed them to be competitive in every game this season, even on the road.  The Ravens get the road win to keep Pittsburgh within sight in the AFC North.

– Steelers over Colts: There is a question mark for Pittsburgh at quarterback: will it be Ben Roethlisberger or Byron Leftwich?  Either way, the Steelers are in good shape because Willie Parker is back to anchor the running game, and Leftwich really played very well last week in the win over the Redskins.  The Colts gave a gutsy performance in their win over New England last week, but Heinz Field is always a tough place to play, and Peyton Manning and company have yet to give two solid performances in a row this year.  The Steelers defense will not allow the Colts receivers to get separation, nor will they allow a hobbled Joseph Addai to have a big day.  Indianapolis still has more than enough talent to make a run for a playoff spot, but they face too tall of an order in this one.  Pittsburgh gets the home win in one of the better games of the week.

– Jaguars over Lions: I have once again fallen into the trap of the Jacksonville Jaguars, but they can’t possibly fall flat on their faces in this one can they?  Jacksonville is an awful 3-5 after a surprise loss in Cincinnati last week, which means the Jaguars are at the very least a contender for most disappointing team this season.  My preseason AFC Super Bowl pick is really letting me down in more ways than one, but I still believe they are not out of it yet.  David Garrard has actually done a superb job despite the record, but the problem for the Jaguars has been their inability to run the ball.  That should change against a Detroit defense that has been gashed by everyone.  Daunte Culpepper gets the start for the Lions after being signed just last week, so it will be interesting to see how he plays.  I think the Jaguars will find a way to win this one on the road, but I have admit an upset is possible if Culpepper plays well.  If Jacksonville loses this one, it will prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that my preseason predictions are good for nothing but kindling, but at least that would put me in good company.

– Bears over Titans: I smell an upset here, mainly because the Titans have won a ton of close games this season, and odds are that one of them will go the other way at some point.  I do put an asterisk by it in the sense that it is unknown whether Kyle Orton or Rex Grossman will get the start for Chicago.  In either case, the Bears will be extremely fired up for this one at Soldier Field, especially since they have an opportunity to extend their lead in the NFC North.  Tennessee has played great defensively, but Chicago’s defense has also forced a ton of turnovers.  If the Bears can win the turnover battle, which is not farfetched by any means as aggressive as their defense is, they will have an opportunity to give their offense a short field, which could easily make the difference in the game.  In typcial Tennessee fashion, the game will once again come down to the wire, but a hunch says the Soldier Field crowd sways the Bears to their biggest win of the year.

– Panthers over Raiders: This will be one of the blowouts of the week.  Carolina is fresh off a bye, and their offense is really clicking with Jake Delhomme and company putting up points.  Oakland is in shambles (what else is new) after releasing big ticket free agent signee DeAngleo Hall and getting shut out at home last week by Atlanta.  The Panthers have too many weapons for the Raiders to contain, especially now that Hall is gone.  Carolina is in position for a bye right now in the NFC playoff picture, and they know they have to keep winning to maintain it.  If I hadn’t already used the Panthers in my eliminator pool, I would be sure to use them here.  Carolina wins big. 

– Chargers over Chiefs: San Diego is also coming off a bye, and is still very much in play in the AFC West despite a 3-5 record.  Even after Denver’s win over Cleveland last night, the Chargers are just a game and a half back in the division with a very friendly schedule awaiting down the stretch.  San Diego for whatever reason has yet to consistently put anything together, but they have now had the bye week to figure it out.  They do get a Chiefs team that has really shown improvement and signs of life the last two games, but Kansas City has still not been able to win.  The Chiefs may well win another game or two before the season is finished, but it won’t come here.  San Diego wins easily at home to kick off their post-bye schedule.

– Vikings over Packers: I really went back and forth on this one, and in the end you might as well flip a coin.  This is a really intense division rivalry, and both teams have been up and down this season.  Both teams have experienced success offensively in recent weeks, and both have outstanding running games, so this has the potential to be a shootout.  The Packers won the first meeting at Lambeau Field in week one, but that was with Tarvaris Jackson under center for Minnesota.  Gus Frerotte has done an admirable job in the that role for the Vikings, and they have a lot of momentum after a home win against Houston last week.  The Metrodome will be rocking for this one, and that will ultimately prove to be the difference in this one as Minnesota jumps back into the NFC North race.

– Falcons over Saints: This game has the potential to be a shootout too.  New Orleans will be without Reggie Bush for one more week, which means the onus will be on Drew Brees and the passing game to move the ball, which they have been very effective doing all year.  The Saints are also coming off a bye, which has helped them recover from the London trip.  The Falcons have been a tremendous surprise at 5-3, and Matt Ryan is playing not only well for a rookie, but he has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league this season (and a borderline must start in fantasy the way he keeps improving).  Atlanta will have no trouble scoring points at home in the Georgia Dome, and they will pull out a narrow win at home in what should be a very entertaining game.   

– Eagles over Giants: The Sunday night game will be dynamite.  Not only is this one of the most intense rivalries in football, but this game matches two of the top teams in the NFL.  The Eagles are right in the thick of the NFC race even though they’ve battled numerous injuries at virtually every position.  Now that they are starting to get healthy, they are starting to show how good they can be.  The Giants are of course the defending champs and have been very tough on the road, including their win two weeks ago in Pittsburgh.  The Giants have to absolutely be considered at the very least in the top 2 or 3 teams in the league right now, and probably are the top team considering they are the defending champs, but a hunch says Philadelphia will get a tremendous lift from a raucous crowd that is still on cloud nine from the Phillies’ World Series victory.  Philadelphia wins what could out to be one of the best games of the season, not just the week.  Regardless of how this one turns out, both teams will be right in the thick of everything at the end.

– Cardinals over 49ers: It has to be a sign of the apocalypse to see the Arizona Cardinals hosting a Monday night game doesn’t it?  Or is it more of a shock that they have a commanding lead in the NFC West, and should pummel poor San Francisco in this one?  The 49ers have had the bye week to regroup, and they do have one of the league’s top running backs in Frank Gore, but that’s about all they have going for them.  No doubt interim coach Mike Singletary is intense, but no amount of intensity will be able to help the Niners stop Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin from running wild.  Remember when it was a question whether it would be Kurt Warner or Matt Leinart under center for the Cardinals this year?  That seems like ancient history.  The Cardinals with a win would be 6-3 and clearly on track to host a playoff game, no that would have to be a sign of the apocalypse.  Arizona wins this one so easily that viewers will flip away by the third quarter.

BYE: Bengals, Cowboys, Redskins, Buccaneers – these are the last of the byes this season

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I’m Glad I was Wrong

Posted by mizzou1028 on November 7, 2008

I wouldn’t believe it if I didn’t see it with my own eyes.  I honestly didn’t believe the Broncos had much of a chance to win in Cleveland on a short week going into the game, let alone when they trailed 23-10 in the second half, missing ALL of their tailbacks due to injury, struggling to get pressure on Brady Quinn, and reverting to giving up big plays in the running game.  What resulted is one of most exciting games I have ever seen, maybe exciting enough to go in the top five, but for sure in the top ten.  I’m not sure what I’m most excited about.  I could give accolades to Jay Cutler for his 447 yard, three touchdown effort that ranks third in Broncos history.  (Trivia question: can you name the two quarterbacks who posted the highest single game yardage efforts?  Hint: neither one is John Elway.  The answer is at the end).  I could praise Eddie Royal for his 164 yard effort, including a 93 yard TD that completely changed the momentum, that resulted in a Broncos rookie record for reception yards in a game.  I could talk about Brandon Marshall, who stepped big with the clinching touchdown, or Tony Scheffler, who had 92 yards receiving despite playing with a groin so sore he didn’t think he was going to play when conducting his own pregame interview on the Broncos radio network.  There’s also Ryan Torain, who ran hard before injuring his knee in the second quarter, and even Selvin Young, who tried so hard to tough it out when he was literally the last running back standing, even though he himself was nursing a groin injury such that Mike Shanahan was hoping not to have to use him.  Even the much maligned defense stepped up when it mattered, forcing a key fourth quarter fumble and coming up with the fourth down stop to preserve the win at the end.  

Truth is, everyone mentioned played a critical role in this win for the Broncos.  I realize that sounds cliche, but it’s the only way they could have come back and won a game where everything seemed lost.  How many teams do you know that would be even remotely effective offensively when they’re down to their fifth running back?  On that note, let’s not forget about Peyton Hillis, who kept the game alive with a critical conversion on fourth and 1 with the Broncos trailing 30-27 and time rapidly ticking away.  This is type of clutch play the Broncos have been missing the past few weeks.  It is this type of unsung play, which won’t get a lot of notice in the box score, that separates winners from losers.  A key play for sure, one that the Broncos couldn’t have won without, and one that wouldn’t have had a chance to happen at all if not for a real gutsy play much earlier in the game.  

It is amazing in a way that the Broncos were able to keep it together.  They had lost four of their past five, they continued to lose guys to injury, they had no running backs left, they were down by 13 on the road, and they had no momentum against a Browns team that was starting to look like it was getting new life on a lost season.  Even looking at the body language of the players on the sideline, it didn’t look like the Broncos were going to come back.  Somehow, the defense was able to force a punt, a victory in itself for a unit that was missing several of its top players and had struggled to stop the Browns most of the night.  That’s when Jay Cutler proved that he has the gusto to be a great quarterback in the NFL.  The Broncos faced the prospect of starting their drive at their own 7 yard line (Does this evoke memories of The Drive anyone?).  Most teams are scared to take a shot down the field when they’re backed up that deep, but Cutler took the chance.  Despite a dropback that practically took him to his own goal line, he launched a perfect strike down the sideline to Royal, who caught it perfect stride, left a gambling defensive back grasping for air, and was off to the races.  This play changed the momentum so dramatically that the body language on each respective sideline changed.  The Browns players were the ones that had looks of shock of despair, and the Broncos players were rejuvenated, and it showed in their play the rest of the night.  Plays like the 93 yard touchdown pass from Cutler to Royal can define a season, and in this case it may have quite literally saved the Broncos season in more ways than one.

It should be noted that not only did Cutler show a lot of guts to make that throw in that situation and field position, but Mike Shanahan and his staff should be credited for calling that play in that situation.  Maybe they would have run the ball if Torain or Young was healthy enough to do so, and we’ll probably never know for sure, but in any case, Shanahan deserves credit for rolling the dice and dialing deep when most coaches would go the safe route.  There are a lot of Broncos fans calling for Shanahan’s head, mainly because the Broncos have won just one playoff game since John Elway’s retirement.  I have long argued that the Broncos would never have won a Super Bowl in the first place if not for Shanahan, and it is easy to forget that he has won 150 career games, no small achievement.  If Shanahan were to leave the Broncos, odds are your team would be among the first in line to hire him.  It is easy to forget that Shanahan is not the one on the field turning it over or getting beat deep.  I challenge you to tell me another coach that could have kept his team together in a situation like the Broncos had in Cleveland, and of course there are others, but tell me someone out there and available who would be better than Shanahan.  The answer is no one.  

I believe the Broncos saw a very impressive glimpse into their future tonight.  When clicking, the offense is as good as any in the NFL right now, and that’s with most of the key players having three years or less experience in the league.  As they continue to play together and mature together, things will only get better.  Jay Cutler is indeed the real deal, having shown ability to lead his team from behind.  A win like this not only gives a team hope, but it gives them confidence even when things aren’t going well.  Frankly, things didn’t go well tonight for Denver for the most part for three quarters, but when push came to shove, they managed to pull a win out of nowhere.  Now, they have a game and a half lead over San Diego in the AFC West, and suddenly the next game at Atlanta doesn’t appear to be the guaranteed loss it seemed to be 24 hours ago.  (Side note: the NFL Network’s Adam Schefter told us tonight that Champ Bailey will play against Atlanta.  If that’s true, it will be another huge boost for the Broncos).  Suddenly, the Broncos actually winning the AFC West with an actual winning record doesn’t seem so impossible. Sure, the defense could still use some work, but they stepped up when it counted, and all things considered continue to show improvement.  Let’s not forget also the offensive line has only allowed five sacks this year, which is truly amazing especially with a rookie left tackle (Ryan Clady) who has been nothing less than terrific and doesn’t get a lot of press for it.  It’s really amazing how one game can really change your picture on things.  There is still obviously a lot of season left, but one thing is for sure: the Broncos are not left for dead yet, and will be a major player in the AFC race.

Trivia answer: Jake Plummer (499 yards vs. Atlanta in 2004), and Gus Frerrote (462 yards vs. San Diego in 2000).

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Broncos Football on a THURSDAY???

Posted by mizzou1028 on November 6, 2008

I have to admit I can never get used to it when the Broncos, or any other NFL team, plays a Thursday game.  This is the fourth consecutive year the Broncos have drawn a Thursday contest (including two Thanksgiving Day games) and I still can’t get used to it.  I actually applaud the concept of getting more games on television for the fans, although I’m not sure NFL Network counts as a national broadcast at this point due to the fact numerous households still don’t get the channel.  At any rate, the Broncos face a very difficult task for numerous reasons: the short week, the fact they’re coming off a tough loss, the numerous injuries on both sides of the ball, and the travel on such a short timetable (to the eastern time zone to boot, where no pacific or mountain time zone team has won a game this season).  If that’s not enough, they get what is sure to be a raucous crowd at Cleveland Browns Stadium that will be excited for the debut of Brady Quinn.

My pick for the game is coming in a moment, but first a reminder that this is the first of a slate of Thursday NFL games every week for the rest of the season, so remember this if you are in an eliminator pool, have a fantasy lineup that needs to be set before the first kick, or even if you have players that may be involved in the game that you need to make a decision on.  In this space, I will offer a pick for each Thursday game before it kicks off, and then will follow up with the rest of the picks on Friday as normal.  So remember to look for the rest of my picks for week 10 on Friday, along with a recap of the Broncos and Browns.  

This is a very difficult game to pick because both teams are a mess.  The Broncos have no choice but to start Ryan Torain at tailback because no one else is left.  Andre Hall and Michael Pittman were placed on injured reserve this week, and Selvin Young won’t be 100 percent even if he plays.  The coaches do love Torain, but he didn’t look up to speed against Miami.  The Broncos also will likely still be without Tony Scheffler, who will take the extended time before the next game to try and get back in the lineup.  His absence has had a real adverse effect on the passing game.  Meanwhile, Denver’s defense took another hit with the news that leading tackler D.J. Williams will be out at least a month with a torn MCL.  This means no Williams and no Bailey (either of them).  Not to mention, the Broncos are sitting on a league worst minus 11 turnover margin in their past five games.  It can be argued that the Broncos are leading their division, but that carries no weight whatsoever for a team that has lost four of its past five games.  It actually came as a surprise to me to read today that the Broncos are just 20-20 in their past 40 games, and that frankly isn’t acceptable for us in Broncos Country. 

The Browns have finally made the long overdue decision to yank Derek Anderson in favor of Brady Quinn.  This is a move I have advocated for since the offseason, when Cleveland made the surprising decision to offer Anderson a 3 year $24 million contract, even though they had made a big investment in Quinn by making him their first round pick in 2007.  This season Anderson has been anything but great, ranking dead last among starting quarterbacks with a terrible 49.8 completion percentage.  While Anderson has been dreadful at times, Quinn is of course an unknown, having made just one appearance in mop up duty last year.  The timing of the decision to make the move to Quinn with such a short week to prepare also seems a little odd.  The Browns are coming off a loss to Baltimore in which they blew a 27-13 second half lead and watched the Ravens score 20 unanswered points to end the game.  Cleveland’s defense has struggled against the run this year, having given up 154 yards to rookie Ray Rice last week, allowing him to average 7.3 yards a carry.  The Browns’ 3-5 start is not what they were hoping for after knocking on the door to the playoff party last season.

Sometimes when you have two struggling teams going at it, it actually turns out to be a good game, and that could be the case here.  I really hope I’m wrong, but I think this game shapes up to be bad news for the Broncos in more ways than one.  I do think the Broncos will be able to run better than they did against Miami, and I also think Jay Cutler and the passing game will give a better effort.  I think the deciding factor will be the play of Quinn, and if he doesn’t panic in his first start, he will be guaranteed to find Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow open all night with the Broncos missing their top defenders.  Edwards against Dre’ Bly in particular makes me really nervous, with Edwards looking like he’s about to break out for a big game the way his numbers have been climbing the past few weeks.  If the Broncos can rattle Quinn early and maybe even force an early turnover, which they haven’t done all year, then they will be able to stay in the game and maybe even control it.  If they can’t, it will be another long night for the orange and blue.  I really want to pick the Broncos to bounce back, but the rational side of me tells me I can’t.  The short week, the trip east, the missing bodies, the lack of confidence, it will be too much for the Broncos to overcome.

The Pick: Cleveland 27 Denver 17 

I really hope I’m wrong…….

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We’re Still Leading the AFC West HOW?

Posted by mizzou1028 on November 3, 2008

I’m not really sure where to start in explaining the Broncos’ loss to Miami.  For starters it seems easy to point the finger at the officiating crew for wiping out Brandon Marshall’s 77 yard touchdown on an absolutely atrocious offensive pass interference call, but that is not why the Broncos lost this game.  If not that. then on the surface it would seem really easy to point the finger at the defense, which was missing the Bailey brothers and also D.J. Williams to injury later in the game.  After all, the run defense in particular has been atrocious all year, allowing well over 5 yards a carry coming into the game, and the defense has given up a ton of big plays all year.  I am convinced however that this one is not on the defense in any way.  Consider:

– The Broncos were the first team to completely shut down Miami’s “Wildcat” formation, holding the Dolphins to -6 yards on just four plays where they used the trick formation.  (For those unfamiliar, quarterback Chad Pennington lines up as a wide receiver and running back Ronnie Brown takes the direct snap, looking to keep it, hand off to another back, or throw.  The Dolphins destroyed New England and had great success against other teams using the formation).  

– The Broncos allowed Miami to average just 2.6 yards per rush overall and held the Dolphins to just 75 yards for the game, a significant improvement for the Broncos defense.  If you throw out one 30 yard run by Brown, the Broncos held Miami to just 45 yards on their other 28 carries, an average of just 1.6 yards a carry.

– The Dolphins coverted just 4 of 14 third downs against the Broncos

– The Broncos got great pressure on Chad Pennington, recording three sacks and finally getting an interception

– Denver held Miami without an offensive touchdown for the first 57 minutes of the game

Now, was this a perfect effort on defense? Of course not.  But when you consider how many key players the Broncos were missing (especially the league’s top corner, Champ Bailey), their defensive effort is truly to be commended.  This was particularly true in the first half, when the Broncos, as they have done numerous times this year, held Miami to field goals even when they were put in awful position.  

No, this one is squarely on the offense, where there are numerous things to point to here:

– The running game was AWFUL!  If it weren’t for a seven yard scamper by Andre Hall in garbage time on the last drive, the Broncos would have set a franchise record for fewest rushing yards in a game.  They finished with just 14 yards on 12 carries, good for a really lousy 1.2 yards per attempt (7 yards on 11 carries if you eliminate the meaningless carry by Hall), which is one yard better than the team record low set in 1972.  Granted, Miami is 9th in the NFL in run defense, but this effort by the Broncos’ ground game was particularly embarrassing.  It is simply not possible to win in the NFL without some semblance of a running game, it cannot be done.

– Perhaps partially due to the embarrassing lack of a running game, Brandon Marshall was held to just two catches for 27 yards.  This simply can’t happen. I do give Miami a ton of credit for great coverage on him, but Marshall has the size and speed to have an advantage on most corners in the league.  In his defense, Marshall did have the big play wiped out by the bogus penalty, and he did get the ball thrown to him plenty, but he still was a non-factor in the offense.

– Jay Cutler did not have a good day.  Yes, he threw for 307 yards and two touchdowns, but too often he seemed like he was forcing throws.  It never seemed like he was able to look off any of the secondary to divert attention from where he was planning to throw the ball.  He also threw three very costly interceptions, including one the play after the long touchdown to Marshall was called back and another that was returned for a touchdown.  

– The Broncos were guilty of 10 penalties for 81 yards, including two illegal formation calls.  

While the offense has been frustrating in general really for the last five games, it is the turnovers that are the most maddening.  The Broncos are DEAD LAST in the NFL in turnover margin at -11, which goes a long way toward explaining why they’ve lost four of their last five games.  Even though the defense finally got a pick today, all three of Cutler’s picks were extremely costly.  His first one on the third play of the game was a killer that gave Miami immediate momentum, his second was returned for a touchdown, and his third came on the play after Marshall’s lost touchdown when he was clearly trying to force a play out of frustration, and led to a Dolphins field goal.  The three interceptions led to 13 Miami points, and it could have easily have been more if not for a great effort by the defense.  That is why i say the D cannot be blamed for this one.  

Sometimes football is a very simple game: you turn the ball over more than the other team you get beat.  While turnovers don’t always tell the whole story, it’s usually a great place to start if you’re trying to figure out why someone won a particular game.  It shouldn’t come as any surprise for example, that the Tennessee Titans lead the NFL in turnover ratio at +10, and they are the only undefeated team in the league.  As I say it’s not a guarantee that winning the turnover battle will always lead to success (Kansas City is third in the NFL at +7), but more often than that the great teams will at the very least not give the ball away, even if they aren’t taking it away.  Giving the other team extra opportunities is never a good recipe for success in any sport.  The Broncos were excellent in this area in the first three games when they were the talk of the league, and now that they are giving the ball away left and right, it should not come as a shock that it is leading to losses.  

Yes, the Broncos did get screwed when Marshall’s touchdown catch got wiped out because of offensive interference, but bad calls are part of the game.  I don’t think there is any question it was a terrible call, particularly since the flag did not get thrown until after Marshall was off to the races, but the Broncos still had chances to win the game.  If Cutler had not thrown a pick on the next play, the defense would not have been backed to the wall trying to make a stop.  I said after the Broncos benefited from the Ed Hochuli call against San Diego that the Chargers still had a chance to stop them and the Broncos shouldn’t apologize for it.  It goes both ways too, the Dolphins shouldn’t apologize for getting lucky on a bad call.  It is the Broncos who should apologize for not running the ball and for committing turnovers at inopportune times, that is what cost them this game, not a blown call.  

Somehow the Broncos are still in sole possession of first place in the AFC West with a 4-4 record.  They should be thanking their lucky stars they are in a bad division, because that’s the only thing keeping them afloat right now.  If San Diego fails to get it together, will we actually see an under .500 division champion in the AFC West? For numerous reasons I hope not.  Regardless of the division lead, the Broncos need to at least play like they deserve to be in that spot, starting with Thursday’s tough game in Cleveland.

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Adios Javon!

Posted by mizzou1028 on March 6, 2008

Good riddance, that’s what I said to myself after Javon Walker signed with the arch rival Oakland Raiders after getting released by Denver.  Has anyone ever received a higher reward for fading fast as Javon Walker?  Seriously, the guy ends up with a new five year contract worth $56 million, $16 million of which is guaranteed, after the year he’s had?  Then again this is the Raiders.  How on earth does Al Davis think he still knows what he’s doing?  First they shell out $50.5 million over five years to keep no name defensive tackle Tommy Kelly, and then they overpay for Walker, who had received interest from other teams, but wasn’t exactly getting his door knocked down? Sure there were other teams interested in Walker, but several reports indicated he hasn’t worked out at all since the end of the season, and there were questions as to whether he could pass a physical with any team because of his knee, which has now required two operations in three years.  The fact is the Broncos actually tried to trade Walker before they released him, but couldn’t find any takers. 

Mike Shanahan seemed like he had a steal two years ago when he acquired Walker for a second round draft pick from Green Bay.  Sure, Walker was coming off a knee reconstruction and had missed the entire 2005 season after injuring his knee in week one, but the Broncos were getting a playmaker.  It did actually work, well for one season anyway.  Walker showed the big play ability he was brought in for, catching 69 balls in 2006 for 1,084 yards and 8 touchdowns.  Looking beyond those numbers though, Walker pretty much carried the team by himself on offense, or does anyone forget he put up most of those numbers with the immortal Jake Plummer throwing to him?  

Things actually started okay last season too, as Walker caught 17 balls in the first two games alone, both Broncos wins, although he didn’t have any touchdowns.  Walker inexplicably was held to two catches for 10 yards in week three against Jacksonville and then did not take the field again until week 12.  During that time we kept hearing how things were week to week as far as his status, and there were reports of more trouble in the already reconstructed knee.   Walker was ready to return following the bye week against Pittsburgh, having missed two games, and looked ready to go in practice in that week.  Then the Friday before the game he’s down in Houston having a second surgery on the already reconstructed knee.  In the meantime, Brandon Marshall began to emerge as the top target for quarterback Jay Cutler.  Marshall in fact finished with a great year, finishing with 102 catches for for 1,325 yards and seven touchdowns.  Walker after he returned in week 12?  He was held without a catch in his return against Chicago, caught one ball for seven yards at Oakland, sat out against the Chiefs with further knee trouble, and caught a whopping six balls in the final three games of the season for less than 50 yards. 

Walker pretty much wrote his ticket out of Denver during his end of season press conference the day after the final game against Minnesota, saying that he wanted to be elsewhere and that he felt he should be the number one receiver.  It became clear that Cutler and Marshall developed a connection during Walker’s absence, and that if Walker wanted to come back in 2008 it would be in a so called number two role.  With the Broncos having as many needs to fill as they do, they clearly weren’t about to pay a $5 million roster bonus for a guy who didn’t want to be here, so it is clear why they let him go.  I’m certainly of the mind that if a player doesn’t want to be part of the organization, get rid of him.  Admittedly, Walker is very effective when healthy, and the Broncos will miss his big play potential.  That being said, if Marshall can continue to shine next season, and if free agent signee Keary Colbert turns out to be as good as advertised, the Broncos could actually be in decent shape.  I still find it very hard to believe that someone was willing give Walker that kind of contract when it’s unclear as to whether his knee will hold up for one season, let alone five.  The silver lining is that if this goes wrong as I suspect it will, the Raiders will be the organization to suffer.  I can’t think of a more deserving owner or franchise to get stuck overpaying for a receiver that’s not likely to hold up the length of the contract and will more than likely bring an attitude problem to the locker room.  I can’t wait to hear the reception Walker will get when the Raiders come to Denver next season.  I just hope that this doesn’t backfire on the Broncos and that Walker doesn’t regain his Pro Bowl level in Oakland.  Then again, it is the Raiders, so the odds are with them not knowing what they’re doing.  Odds are they’ll be able to add Walker to their list of free agent failures (see Brown, Larry). 

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Random Thoughts for March

Posted by mizzou1028 on March 4, 2008

So the calendar has turned into March.  Never mind that it’s hard to fathom that we’re already two months into 2008.  This means one thing and one thing only: this is the best time of year for college basketball.  It is this time of year that reminds me why the college game is considerably better and more entertaining than the pro version.  I’m well aware that I recently wrote that I’m paying more attention to the NBA these days.  That still holds true, especially this season when the Nuggets may end up holding the distinction of the most talented team ever to miss the playoffs.  However, there is one thing the college game has that the NBA will never have, and that’s the passion involved in each game.  Have you ever once seen NBA fans charge the court to celebrate a big win?  No.  Do NBA fans arrive at a game three hours early to secure the best seats? No.  Do NBA games have raucous student sections that turn even the most mundane of matchups into an electric atmosphere? No.  

As much as I despise Kansas basketball, and the hatred is evident if you get to know me for five seconds, I had to give a tip of the cap while watching their game against Texas Tech last night.  It was senior night at Allen Fieldhouse, and as usual the place was packed.  That atmosphere is what makes college basketball so great.  Students at KU camp out for days to make sure they get seats for the next game, and regardless of the score (last night KU walloped Tech by 58 points) no one leaves the game early, ever.  I’ve been to NBA games where the score is tied with three minutes left and people are heading for the exits to beat traffic.  Seriously, how absurd is this?  People don’t leave movies early, so why do they leave games early, even when it’s competitive at the end?  That’s a rant for another time, but the point is you don’t see that kind of casual fan behavior at a college game.  Every college game has an electric atmosphere, virtually anywhere in the country, that is simply not duplicated at the professional level.  Even in a year where my Mizzou Tigers are just hovering over .500 at 15-14, I still pay much closer attention to the college season and in particular the Big 12 this time of year than I do any other sport.  The NCAA tournament is a unique event on the sports calendar partly due to its unpredictability, but it’s the passion of each game that makes the event special.  For me, the final few weeks of the regular season and the week of conference tournaments also provide the same intensity and excitement.  No matter who your team is, no matter how poor a season they’ve had, there’s always that minuscule chance they could win their conference tournament and make the big party.  That small chance alone makes the next few weeks of games worth watching.

…………………………………………………….

Have you seen some of these deals being shelled out in the early period of free agency in the NFL?  I know it’s always a time where teams want to show their fans that they’re doing something to try and improve the team, but some of these deals are insane.  How many of you out there have heard of Tommy Kelly?  He’s a defensive tackle who last year had 30 tackles and one sack for the Raiders, and didn’t play a down after suffering a season ending injury in week 8 against Tennessee.  The Raiders shelled out $50.5 million over five years to re-sign him.  That’s an awful lot of money to shell out for one sack.  Reports had some NFL GM’s saying, “Who is Tommy Kelly?”  How about Justin Smith, defensive end formerly of the Bengals, getting $45 million over six years to sign with San Francisco?  Smith had a whopping two sacks last year, and while talented, doesn’t seem like he’d be considered the so called missing piece to justify that kind of signing.  The Jacksonville Jaguars clearly thought that two interceptions was worth $6 million a year, as that’s what they’re paying former Charger cornerback Drayton Florence.  Seems as though the New England Patriots still have confidence in their more low key formula.  They elected not to re-sign WR Donte Stallworth (who went to Cleveland), CB Asante Samuel (who got a 6 year $57 million contract from Philadelphia, although he at least intercepted six passes last year) and CB Randall Gay (who signed with New Orleans).  These can be added to the list of big name players they have jettisoned in the past (David Givens, Deion Branch, Ty Law, Drew Bledsoe among them), and it’s a philosophy that seems to work for them.  As successful as they’ve been, maybe the answer isn’t to spend every dime you have on free agents every winter.  Then again, maybe the Patriots are just good at bargain hunting.  Their 3 year $27 million re-signing of star receiver Randy Moss seems like the biggest bargain of the winter. 

……………………………………………

Tonight Peter Forsberg returns to the Colorado Avalanche.  I really hope that this isn’t just a public relations move to bring him back.  If he is even 80 percent of the player he was before he left the club, then the Avalanche are about get a huge boost.  Right now they are on the cusp of playoff contention, but if he can contribute, then they might just make a run.  Last year felt weird without the Avalanche in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but if they make it back this year with Forsberg and Adam Foote having just returned to the team, it will be just like old times. 

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Why I’m picking the Giants

Posted by mizzou1028 on January 31, 2008

It would be really easy to look at this Super Bowl and say “Why are they even bothering to play the game?  This is a mismatch.”  Indeed, the Patriots have to be acknowledged as heavy favorites.  The fact alone that they’re 18-0 is certainly an accomplishment.  New England’s offense hit the 30 point mark a whopping 12 times in the regular season.  They set league records for points scored in a season as well as point differential.  What perhaps is most impressive about them is how they finish games.  The poise they show in high pressure situations is that of a champion, and they have the type of swagger that we’ve seen from dominant teams in the past.  Not to mention many of the key components are still there from the three previous Super Bowl winners of this decade.  The Patriots certainly deserve their due for putting together an undefeated regular season and handling the pressure that goes with it.  They feature the league MVP in Tom Brady and arguably the game’s most effective wideout combo in Randy Moss and Wes Welker.  On top of that, they’re playing a team in the Giants that they’ve already defeated once this season, on the road no less.  To hear most of the media talk about this matchup, we should not bother to play the game Sunday and should just hand the Patriots the trophy.  Well, I believe that not only will the game be very competitive, and certainly not over by halftime, but I believe the Giants will win the game.  That’s right, I’m picking the Giants to upset the Patriots on Sunday.

Let’s not forget that we’ve seen this type of thing numerous times in the Super Bowl.  A heavy favorite is expected to come in and thoroughly dominate the action, and finds itself on the wrong side of the scoreboard at the end of the game.  Anyone remember Super Bowl 36?  If you’re a Patriots fan you’d better remember that one.  The Patriots were huge underdogs following an 11-5 regular season, and a divisional playoff win over the Raiders they were lucky to get becuase of the obscure tuck rule.  The St. Louis Rams were a machine, coming off a 14-2 regular season, and they featured league MVP Kurt Warner and offensive player of the year Marshall Faulk.  The only question going in was how much the Rams would win by.  The final? Patriots 20-17 thanks to a last second Adam Vinatieri field goal and an outstanding defensive effort shutting down the league’s top offense.  Anyone else see a sense of irony between this Sunday’s game, and that matchup from the 2001 season? 

How about Super Bowl 32? The Broncos were 12 point underdogs to the Packers, and at the time the NFC had won 13 straight Super Bowls.  The Broncos, who had qualified as a wild card, won 31-24 thanks to an outstanding rushing effort from Terrell Davis.  Let’s also not forget Super Bowl 25, when the Giants beat the high powered Bills 20-19.  That game in particular has a lot of similarities to this year’s matchup.  The Bills won the AFC title game that year 51-3 over the Raiders, while the Giants had a rougher road through the NFC bracket to get to the Super Bowl.  The Bills were heavy favorites, and had an ability to score at will that year, much like the Patriots this year.  The Bills had defeated the Giants during the December of that regular season 17-13 at Giants Stadium.  This year’s Patriots also defeated their future Super Bowl opponent the Giants at Giants Stadium in December, 38-35.  The Giants’ Super Bowl win over the Bills is mostly remembered for Scott Norwood’s missed field goal at the end of the game, but make no mistake about it, the Giants’ defense and running game are the reasons they won that game against the heavily favored Bills.  The Giants controlled the clock so much that the Bills offense seemed like it was pressured to score quickly when it did have the ball, causing them to make mistakes they wouldn’t normally make.  This year’s Giants have a similar ability to control things with their running game, which they did against both the Cowboys and the Packers in the playoffs, and they have a defensive front four that can put pressure on Tom Brady, particularly defensive ends Osi Umineyora and Michael Strahan. 

The thing with the Super Bowl that makes it different than picking a regular game is that what happened prior to this point is irrelevant.  All that matters what happens once the game is kicked off on Sunday.  In the cases described above, the underdog team went into the game with nothing to lose, and those games did not go how most people expected them to.  The fact is, a team has to be pretty darn good to reach the Super Bowl, period.  The Giants this season have won 10 straight road games, including playoffs, an NFL record.  Think about that for a minute.  As much of advantage as it is for most teams to play at home, the Giants have found a way to win 10 straight games on the road, including playoff wins at Texas Stadium and Lambeau Field, two places where it is extremely difficult for a visiting team to win at any time, let alone in the playoffs.  The Giants during the regular season only lost to New England by three points, despite the fact that Brady threw for 356 yards and two scores, and did not throw a pick.  The Giants defense only sacked Brady once in the game, and yet still were within striking distance.  The Patriots only won by three despite the fact they had a 13 minute edge in time of possession, and in fact forced the only turnover of the game.  Most media pundits point to these examples from the first game as evidence the Patriots will roll.  I argue that the Patriots struggled to win a game in which they scored 38 points, were only sacked once, didn’t turn the ball over, and dominated time of possession.  Many experts claim the Giants will not be able to get that close again.  I argue that if the Giants can be that close in those circumstances, while gaining only 79 yards on the ground, imagine if they can get to Brady a little bit more.  What if they can do what the Chargers did the AFC title game, and intercept Brady three times?  These circumstances are eeirly similar not only to the aformentioned Giants-Bills rematch in 1990, but also the 2001 Patriots-Rams matchup.  See, the Rams beat New England in the regular season that year 24-17 in Foxboro, and the Rams statistically dominated that game, outgaining the Patriots 482-230 and forcing three New England turnovers.  The Patriots of course were able to win the rematch with a little tweaking in the game plan.  I believe the Giants will win this rematch, partially because they’ve already proved they can hang with the Patriots, partially because they’ve proven they can win away from Giants Stadium, partially because I beleive they will be able to pressure Brady where other teams haven’t been able to consistently, and partially based on a gut feeling.  Let’s also not forget, the Giants will have back center Shaun O’Hara, who played great in the first meeting until leaving due to injury in the third quarter, and linebacker Kawika Mitchell, who did not play in the first meeting due to injury.   

The Pick: Giants 34-31 

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Too much hype!

Posted by mizzou1028 on January 28, 2008

So which Super Bowl story are you most sick of hearing about?  Tom Brady’s foot?  The Patriots pursuit of perfection?  The Giants being huge underdogs?  Well if you’re sick of any or all of them, get ready to hear more about them.  Is it just me, or is the two week gap between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl too long?  It gets to the point where you’re relieved when the game finally kicks off because you’ve already heard every angle of the game analyzed a thousand times right down to the long snappers.   I know the NFL likes the gap because they want the game hyped as much as possible, but are we really missing anything if we were to eliminate a week of endless hype?  I mean, how many news stories about Tom Brady’s foot are we going to have to endure?  I say no fewer than 25 before game day. 

Then there is the whole party atmosphere surrounding the game.  Now, I enjoy a Super Bowl party as much as anyone else.  My party will have plenty of junk food and drinks and everything a football watching party should have, so I’m not saying you can’t have fun watching the game in a group setting.  My beef is more with those that are more interested in the pregame and halftime entertainment and the commercials than they are the game.  Remember Super Bowl 38 when New England won a great game against Carolina?  Well, this game should be remembered for New England putting together a great drive at the end of the game and winning on a last second Adam Vinatieri field goal.  Instead, this game is more remembered for the Janet Jackson fiasco at halftime (which I actually missed because I wasn’t about to leave my chair during the important part of the evening – THE GAME!).  I was so furious the next day when everyone wanted to talk about the halftime show, instead of what they should have been talking about which was the great game that was played.  I frankly didn’t care one iota if there was some “wardrobe malfunction” during the stupid halftime show.  Since when should a halftime show dwarf the game?  If it wasn’t for the game, there wouldn’t be anything else surrounding it.  I’ve heard of Super Bowl parties where no one watches the game but everyone intently watches everything else.  If you ever find me at one of those parties, than I have some oceanfront property in Wyoming you can have cheap.

In a lot of ways, it almost feels like football is over after the conference championships, at least in terms of what you would call a traditional football atmosphere.  My friend Vic told me one time he would much rather attend a conference title game than the Super Bowl, and at first I thought he was nuts.  Then I thought about it, and in some ways it makes sense that in many ways the Super Bowl doesn’t really feel like football because of everything else that is surrounding it.  There is the concept for many people that the “outside activities” are a bigger deal than the game.  For many people the day is just an excuse to party, and many are not that concerned with what is happening on the field.  I will admit I do enjoy some of the commercials, but for me the game is the sole focal point of the day.  Many years I do not even bother to watch the halftime show.  

In spite of all this, I do really enjoy Super Bowl Sunday.  Once the game kicks off, I’m into it just like I am any other game, whether my team is in it or not.  When it’s all said and done it is the final game of the season (I don’t count the Pro Bowl as a real game) and often times it does turn out to be a great game.  I just hope that if Sunday’s game is fantastic, that it’s not overshadowed the next day by some dumb commercial or heaven forbid a Tom Petty wardrobe malfunction. 

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Pursuit of (Im)Perfection

Posted by mizzou1028 on January 22, 2008

As I sit down and look at the upcoming Super Bowl matchup between the Patriots and the Giants, I can’t help but notice some irony, as if the football gods have a sense of humor.  The Patriots were huge underdogs to a clearly more talented Rams team in the Super Bowl following the 2001 season.  No one gave them a chance, even though the Patriots were very competitive in the regular season meeting vs. the Rams, losing 24-17.  Of course New England put together a brilliant defensive game plan in the Super Bowl and pulled off the upset 20-17 in the rematch.  Here we are six years later, and the Patriots find themselves at the other end of this type of matchup.  The early line shows New England as a 13 point favorite against the Giants, even though the regular season meeting was competitive, with New England winning 38-35 in week 17 at Giants Stadium.  The path the Patriots took to get to the top of the league has no doubt been the result of  great front office decisions, coaching and a huge boost from future Hall of Famer Tom Brady.  I’ll preface the following remarks by saying that if the Patriots do beat the Giants to cap off their perfect season, they will absolutely deserve the accolades for putting together the first 19-0 season in NFL history.  It would be difficult to argue that any team in history would be greater.  That doesn’t mean that I or any other fan who doesn’t like the Patriots has to enjoy it.

It’s turned out to be a funny thing that the Patriots aren’t one of my favorite teams.  In fact I used to like them.  I’ve always had a soft spot for underdog teams that haven’t enjoyed much success, and if my Broncos are out of the playoff hunt I will typically root for the underdog team whoever it is, provided it’s not the Chiefs or Raiders.  It is such that I rooted the Patriots on against the Rams in Super Bowl 36.  I admired how the Patriots came out of nowhere behind a quarterback that no one had heard of prior to the season and put together one of the surprising upsets in Super Bowl history.  I didn’t even mind them two years later when they won Super Bowl 38 against Carolina.  The Patriots showed a lot of gusto winning what turned out to be one of the great games in Super Bowl history.  I even tipped my cap to Bill Belichick when the Patriots beat my Broncos during that regular season in 2003, when he intentionally took a safety in the interest of field position late in the game, which allowed Brady to engineer a late drive to win.  I even have to give them their due for rising back to the top this season after two years of playoff defeats. 

So why is it that I have vehemently rooted against the Patriots this season, even against another team I hate, the Chargers?  Part of it is there doesn’t seem to be much fun in seeing Goliath win, but there is more to it than that.  For me, the straw that broke the camel’s back was this article from SI’s Paul Zimmerman.  Naturally like most fans I was turned off by the accusations of Spygate against the Patriots.  If any of the accusations of cheating are true, than you really have to question their success over their entire run.  This article outlined examples from no fewer than three coaches that made me go “hmmm”.  When multiple coaches say their headsets went down during key times of a game in Foxboro, it at the very least requires a closer examination of what is going on.  Whatever proof may have existed has since been destroyed by the commissioner, so we’ll probably never truly know the extent of how much, or if, the Patriots really cheated.  Even if this season were to be “clean” where others may not have been, it still puts a smudge on what should be the greatest feat in NFL history. 

In a way it is really unfortunate that the Patriots have this hanging over their head.  They made a number of brilliant front office moves to put the team together, perhaps the biggest acquiring Randy Moss for essentially nothing (a 4th round pick) from the Raiders, followed closely by getting Wes Welker from Miami for a 2nd round selection.  Tom Brady is no doubt a Hall of Fame quarterback, and if he does win a fourth Super Bowl will be in Montana and Bradshaw territory.  The fact is though that even if there is perception that all of the titles were not fairly won, it is not possible for me to root for them in any way.  I find it difficult to believe that if the team was docked a 1st round draft pick and Belichick was fined the largest amount in league history for a coach ($500,000), that there wasn’t something going on there.  It still seems unfair they get a first round pick next year anyway, and a top 10 pick to boot, via a trade with San Francisco.  For me this scandal, for lack of a better word, puts a permanent black eye on the Patriots organization, and there is no possible way I can root for that kind of team. 

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Schottenheimer anyone?

Posted by mizzou1028 on January 21, 2008

I never thought I would utter the following phrase as a die hard Broncos fan, but I am livid that the San Diego Chargers didn’t win today (which says how much I can’t stand the Patriots but that’s another matter).   They literally handed the AFC Championship Game to New England on a silver platter.  For starters, they ended up with field goals on three seperate trips inside the 10 yard line, which is unacceptable in any game let alone on the road against the best team in the league.  On the last of those drives they wasted a valuable second half timeout to come up with a draw play on 3rd & 1.  It seemed as though the Chargers suddenly went tentative once they got inside the red zone.  That’s 12 points they left on the board right there.  Conversely, the Patriots coverted three of their four red zone opportunities for touchdowns, rather than having to settle for field goals.  Then, their kickoffs and punts were terrible all game long.  What is the one thing you don’t want to give Tom Brady especially on the road?  That would be excellent starting field position.  Routinely, the Patriots fielded kickoffs that didn’t even reach the 20 yard line, resulting in terrific field position.  Conversely, the Patriots kickoffs were much better, and didn’t give San Diego great field position to begin drives.  In spite of all that, the Chargers still were within striking distance, down 21-12 with just under 10 minutes to go.  Facing a 4th & 10 at the New England 35, they could have chosen to try a long field goal or even go for it to try and stay in the game.  No, instead the coaching “genius” Norv Turner (insert your own sarcasm comment here) elects to punt the ball, and the game, away.  The Chargers only “gained” roughly 20 yards on the punt, and they never saw the ball again, as the Patriots enegineered an impressive drive to put the game away.  What would the Chargers have lost really by going for it instead of punting?  At worst New England would have had the ball at the 35, but did Turner really believe his defense had much a shot to come up with a quick stop?  I realize they had intercepted Brady three times already in the game, but how many lives did they expect against New England? 

That’s not to say the Patriots don’t deserve credit for winning the game.  The final drive was certainly impressive, as was the Patriots defense for holding the Chargers down once they got inside the red zone.  New England also is to be commended for their offensive execution the red zone, particularly the play of Wes Welker.  That being said, how would the Patriots have fared against the Colts today?  Better yet, how would they have fared against a more intelligent coach, one who’s play calling would have been more savvy in the red zone and who would have shown more guts when it counted in the fourth quarter?  I certainly find it ironic that the Chargers playoff collapse of a year ago was blamed strictly on Marty Schottenheimer (for the record I too was among the blamers).  Now, it is clear that Turner at the very least contributed to this year’s defeat.  The bottom line is the Chargers played hard especially on defense, actually intercepting Brady three times, and also did a good job moving the ball offensively.  It was little things that cost them the game, and that can only be blamed on coaching. 

The bright side, getting back to me being a Broncos fan, is that Turner figures to be in control of a prime division rival for years to come.  I can’t wait until the Broncos win a close game against the Chargers becuase of dumb coaching by Turner.  The Chargers are scary on paper because they have tremendous young talent at every position, but as long as Turner is in charge, it will give the rest of the division a fighting chance. 

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