Reid Fischer's World of Rants

Looking at the sports world through orange colored glasses

Not Division Champs Yet

Posted by mizzou1028 on December 15, 2008

Bad day for the Broncos.  As they took the field today against the Carolina Panthers, they did so with the knowledge that they were likely about to win the division, and sit tonight knowing they still have work to do.  See, Kansas City led San Diego 21-10 with less than 90 seconds to play when John Kasay kicked off to Eddie Royal to begin the Broncos game.  Little did the Broncos know that the Chargers would score, recover an onside kick and quickly score again to take the lead, and that the Chargers would end up winning when the Chiefs missed a 50-yard field goal on the last play.  The Broncos thought they had already clinched the division, not thinking there would be any way even Kansas City could blow THAT lead.  To boot, the Broncos themselves got run over by the Panthers, and thus can’t quite start printing playoff tickets just yet.  

To be perfectly honest, I can’t say I’m at all surprised by what transpired in Charlotte today, as the Broncos got beat by a much better team in the Panthers.  I was hopeful for an upset yes, especially after the Broncos had pulled off surprises in their previous two road games against the Falcons and Jets.  But being hopeful and being realistic are two completely different things, and I just knew the Broncos had their work cut out for them against a Panthers that in my opinion has usurped the Giants as the top team in the NFC and may just be the best team in the NFL right now.  We’ll find out for sure when the Panthers face the Giants next week, but at any rate Carolina is quickly proving that they are at the very least a bona fide Super Bowl contender.  

The Broncos employed the only defensive strategy they could in this game, and while it achieved the stated goal (stopping the run) it simply didn’t work overall.  With Champ Bailey out once again (more on that in a moment), the Broncos were severely shorthanded in the secondary against a great receiver duo in Steve Smith and Mushin Muhammad.   Despite this, Denver knew that their only chance to even have a shot was to try and slow down Carolina’s running game, which tore apart the Buccaneers for a franchise record 299 last week.  To do this, the Broncos had to bring an extra defender in the box.  The Broncos had the benefit of getting top linebacker and leading tackler D.J. Williams back at linebacker today after he had missed the last month due to injury (he had three tackles today).   Knowing this the Broncos took the unusual measure of starting Wesley Woodyard, who had been filling in for Williams, at strong safety.  In this instance the Broncos were actually quite clever in how they did this, because they had the benefit of an extra linebacker as the run stuffing safety.  For most the game the Broncos actually did an excellent job against the run.  The final stats may not indicate it, DeAngelo Williams finished with 88 yards on just 12 carries (a 7.3 average) while Jonathan Stewart added 52 yards on 16 carries (a 3.3 average).  All told the Panthers rushed for 147 yards and averaged 4.9 yards a carry, which isn’t good generally speaking.  A further look though reveals that 56 of Williams’ 88 yards came on one play, a sensational touchdown run in which Williams was completely bottled up by three Broncos and made a sharp cutback move reminiscent of Terrell Davis in his heyday.  Once Williams was off to the races there was nothing the Bronco defenders could do.  Taking that one run out of the equation, Williams had just 32 yards on his other 11 carries, for just a 2.9 average.  Overall, the Broncos allowed just 3.1 yards a carry when not factoring the touchdown run.  I realize it of course foolish to not include it, but I’m merely illustrating the Broncos overall actually did an excellent job stopping the run in this game, considering the Panthers’ offensive line dominance this season and the caliber of backs they were facing. 

So while the Broncos did well against the run, the downside of their strategy was they were forced to single up Steve Smith, without question one of the top five receivers in football, with so many defenders committed to the run.  The results of this were not pretty, as the Panthers immediately caught on to the fact that Smith was isolated.  Smith caught three passes on the Panthers’ first drive of the game alone for 64 of Carolina’s 77 total yards on the march, including the touchdown that tied the game on a bubble screen pass.   Smith was often open down the field, and finished with 9 catches for 165 yards and a score.  The Broncos resorted to double teaming Smith a few times, and he was able to gain separation anyway, and when he didn’t the Panthers could move the ball with the run.  Smith’s receiving mate Mushin Muhammad, who was also single covered most of the day, added four receptions for 70 yards.  

So while the Broncos did what they had to do to the stop run, the only strategy that even gave them a chance to do it, Smith was able to burn them all day long.  I am convinced that if a healthy Bailey were able to check Smith, the strategy would have had a much better chance to succeed.  Smith is way too good to be shut down by anyone,  but Bailey would have at least had a chance to contain him enough to where Jake Delhomme wouldn’t have been near as confident to throw Smith’s way.  With all respects to Dre’ Bly, he is not near the corner Bailey is, and frankly he never had a chance in his matchup against Smith.  It is worth noting that Bailey has now sat out seven consecutive games since the bye week, and he has been rumored to be returning for five of them, all the way back to the Atlanta game.  If Bailey wasn’t healthy enough to go when the Broncos needed him against Smith, it seems clear that his injury is much more serious than has been let on.  This is not to put any blame on Bailey by any means, but it is an illustration of the defensive troubles the Broncos have experienced this season.

The thing that doomed the Broncos above all else though, was what else, turnovers and lack of execution offensively.  The Broncos were brilliant on their first two drives, which resulted in a touchdown pass to P.J. Pope and a long field goal.  After that, it was all downhill from there.  Here is what happened the rest of the game, in order:

– Drive 3: Cutler throws an interception on the first play after the Bronco defense forced a punt, a poor decision throwing into double coverage, and the pass was picked after a deflection.  Resulted in a Carolina field goal to tie it at 10-10.  

– Drive 4: Punt, after the Broncos unsuccessfully hand off to Selvin Young on 3rd & 16

– Drive 5: Punt, after a drive stalls around midfield.  The Panthers take the ensuing drive 75 yards for a touchdown.

– Drive 6: Young fumbles at his own 25 with 10 seconds remaining in the first half, a turnover that results in a Carolina field goal (Two problems here: of course the fumble is inexcusable, but why didn’t the Broncos just take a knee and enter halftime with a seven point deficit.  Ridiculous play call, but that still doesn’t excuse Young).

– Drive 7: (After the Williams TD run put Carolina up 27-10) Three and out.  Punt.

– Drive 8: Three and out.  Punt

– Drive 9: (After a Bronco interception)  Missed field goal by Matt Prater.

– Drive 10: Three and out.  Punt

– Drive 11: Broncos gain 70 meaningless yards, end of game.

The Broncos once again lost the turnover battle, which is obviously costly.  These two turnovers were particularly bad timing however.  The first came when the Broncos were ahead 10-7 and had a chance to add onto the lead with a good drive, and the second came right before the half and essentially handed Carolina three points to give them a 20-10 lead when it otherwise would have been a one score game at halftime.  Had it not been for the fumble, it is reasonable to argue that the second half could have unfolded differently.  The Broncos made mistakes that simply can’t afford to be made on the road against an excellent team, and Carolina was able to take advantage and put the game away early in the second half.  

If I had a chance to offer a revised Super Bowl pick, right now, I would take the Panthers.  They are easily able to keep teams off balance with their two-headed monster running game and the presence of Smith.  Even a great defense will have trouble stopping them if the Panthers are clicking.  The X factors for Carolina are Delhomme, who is not always consistent and has a tendency to sometimes make bad decisions if he faces pressure, and the defense, which at times has been prone to big plays.  If the Panthers beat the Giants next week, they clinch home field throughout the playoffs, and being that they’re unbeaten at home this year, I think that would be case closed for the NFC if that happens.  The Broncos should not be ashamed of losing to Carolina on the road, but they do need to play better next week against the Bills, a team that has nothing to play for.  Beat Buffalo and the Broncos are in as division champs, but the Broncos must approach it as if it’s a playoff game, because let’s be honest.  At this point it is a playoff game, one that could define the Broncos’ season.  Or they could root for Tampa Bay against San Diego, but they’d better not count on the Bucs.  Next week the Broncos are much better off simply taking care of their own business.

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Week Fifteen Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on December 12, 2008

What a great game last night.  Who would have thought that the Bears would get an opening kickoff return touchdown and it wouldn’t be Devin Hester?  Or that the Bears would blow a sizable first half lead and watch the Saints take the lead with three minutes to go (naturally thanks to a Marques Colston sighting AFTER my fantasy team has been bounced from the playoffs)?  Who would have thought that Robbie Gould would make not only a clutch field goal to send the game into overtime, but also win it with another in OT?  The Bears defense did a very admirable job at least slowing down the Saints offense, including forcing Drew Brees into two picks.  Offensively, they did not get a great game from Matt Forte, but Kyle Orton did just enough to lead clutch drives at the end of regulation and OT.  Yes, the Bears benefited from a pass interference penalty on a deep ball, but the Bears took full advantage of the opportunity that gave them.  Make no mistake about it, the NFC North is not decided yet.  The Vikings may own the tiebreaker over the Bears, but Chicago still very much has a pulse.  For all of their faults, the Bears will not go away quietly.  As for the Saints, they are done.  How a team with so much talent can only be 7-7 is absolutely beyond me, but for starters they are going to have to figure out how to win at least an occasional game away from the Superdome next season.  Now, on to the picks: 

Last Week: 12-4 (.750)  Season: 132-75-1 (.634)  Season record includes last night’s correct pick

– Jets over Bills: The Jets have lost two in a row yes, but this is a must win game for them, at home in the division.  New York knows it’s in the midst of a three way tie for the division and can’t afford to slip up in this one at home in case it comes down to division record as a tiebreaker.  Buffalo is beyond fading, and probably will be forced into starting J.P. Losman again.  Even as much as Favre and company have struggled, they should win this one easily.  The Jets won pretty comfortably in the first meeting in Buffalo, so I see no reason why they would slip up here.  Watch for Leon Washington in this game, a hunch says he could be the X factor that makes the difference with the Bills loading up to stop Thomas Jones.  

– Dolphins over 49ers: This is definitely an intriguing game.  Miami is on the cusp of going from 1-15 to division champ if things break right over the next three weeks.  This is Miami’s final home game of the year, so they know they will need to take care of business.  Strangely enough, the Dolphins have had several close calls at home this year, surviving narrow wins at Dolphin Stadium against the Seahawks and Raiders in November.  San Francisco is definitely showing the promise that was expected of them early in the year, and with Shaun Hill at quarterback they are definitely dangerous for contending teams down the stretch.  The Niners have to be wondering if they wouldn’t be in the race had they gone with Hill the entire time the way he’s played the last two weeks.  While an upset is not out of the realm of possibility here, I think Miami will win a very close game.  The Dolphins will be able to run the ball, and Chad Pennington has proven he’s not normally liable for dumb mistakes to put Miami in a hole.  Miami’s defense has been superb and that will be the difference.  

– Patriots over Raiders: New England knows it is on the wrong end of tiebreakers right now for both the division race and the wild card.  All they can do is win their games and hope for some help over the next three weeks.  The Patriots do have the advantage of a friendly schedule down the stretch, so that will be working in their favor even if the tiebreakers aren’t.  Oakland has been a hard team to figure this year, for you never know when they will decide to care about a game or when they’ll just mail it in.  If the Raiders decide they’re going to play hard in this one, the Patriots offense could have trouble getting big plays.  If the Raiders decide to mail this one in, New England will have a field day.  Randy Moss makes his first appearance against the Raiders since leaving two years ago, so he will definitely be highly motivated for a big day.  I think the difference in this game will be that New England should have no trouble running the ball (start Sammy Morris if you’re still in the playoffs this week – trust me).  The Raiders are also not likely to get quarterback play no matter who is in there, and that will help the Patriots too.  It may not be pretty, but New England wins to keep their hopes alive.  

– Redskins over Bengals: Were it not for the Lions, Cincinnati would be the official joke of the league.  I can’t imagine what it would be like to be a Bengals fan.  No playoff wins since 1990 with complete ineptitude most of the time since then, and just when it looks like they get an explosive offense and a dangerous team, it implodes with embarrassing off the field behavior and a complete failure to take advantage of their talent.  Cincinnati really appears to have mailed this season in completely, and I still can’t believe Marvin Lewis could still have his job next season.  The listless Bengals are the only reason I’m picking Washington to win here.  I think the Redskins have faded also to the point where they aren’t considered a realistic contender anymore.  The Jim Zorn-Clinton Portis fight in the media can’t be a good thing either.  While I can’t blame Portis for being upset given that he was playing through all kinds of pain, Zorn is the head coach and therefore deserves Portis’ respect.  Despite all that, Washington is less of a mess than Cincinnati, and the Redskins will win an ugly game that I can’t imagine anyone in Cincinnati would actually pay money to see.  

– Ravens over Steelers: The unquestioned game of the week, and I won’t be able to see it because it is at the same time as the Broncos.  (Thanks a lot NBC for once again assuming anyone only cares about the NFC East).  I think there will not be many points scored in this one, think 13-10 or something along those lines, but it will be the most physical game of the year by far.  Pittsburgh is mad because the Ravens defense knocked out talented rookie Rashard Mendenhall for the year in the first meeting, while the Ravens for years have complained about Hines Ward’s blocking.  Needless to say these two teams don’t like each other, and if the first meeting is any indication (a Pittsburgh win in OT), this one should absolutely live up to the billing.  The Steelers were lucky last week against Dallas, getting a gift from a very poor decision by Tony Romo in the last two minutes, while the Ravens are really looking Super Bowl quality.  They completely shut down the Redskins last week, and they have an offense to go with their defense.  I don’t think they’ll explode in this one, but I do think Joe Flacco will outplay Ben Roethlisberger and that will be the difference.  Yes, you read that correctly.  Flacco is playing much better right now frankly.  If Baltimore wins, the AFC North is tied with two games to play.  Baltimore has been waiting for this game too long not to come out with a top effort,  and they will win at home.  

– Texas over Titans: UPSET ALERT.  Some of these have worked for me this year, others have not.  I do feel in this one that the Titans are looking very vulnerable.  They won against Cleveland last week but clearly didn’t look like they had their A game.  If they play like that against the Texans and their suddenly explosive offense, they will get beat.  Tennessee does have a very good defense, and their offensive line is among the best in the league, but something tells me that Matt Schaub is about to have his second big day in a row.  With Schaub back under center, the Texans are capable of putting up tons of points on anyone.  I really think Houston picked up a huge confidence boosting win in Green Bay last week, and I think that momentum will carry over.  The Houston crowd is always fired up for a home game against the Titans (remember they used to be the Houston Oilers, and Houston fans still haven’t forgotten).  I think that both teams will put up points, but in a shootout, and it sounds strange to say this, I would take the Texans’ offense over Tennessee’s.  This will simply not be the ground it out, control the clock game that Jeff Fisher loves.  Houston wins in a high scoring affair, and thus prevents the Titans from clinching playoff home field just yet.  

– Colts over Lions: Indianapolis by at least 30.  The red hot Colts at home against the 0-13 Lions.  Peyton Manning vs. a washed up Daunte Culpepper.  Detroit has no hope here even if the Colts have their entire starting offense AND defense forced out due to injury.  The Colts are the league’s hottest team and the Lions are making a run at the wrong kind of history.  Let’s just move on.  

– Packers over Jaguars: Two struggling teams in what was thought to be a good game at the start of the season.  I think Jacksonville is beyond hope frankly, and I really don’t think the Jaguars will win again this year.  It seems very foolish that I thought they would represent the AFC in the Super Bowl at the start of the year, but this is just not the same team we saw last year.  Jacksonville has been completely unable to run the ball, and their defense has not been near as good as in years past.  The Packers have struggled too (and it’s not because of Aaron Rodgers.  The Packers would not be leading the division with Brett Favre.  Unless he’s figured out how to play defensive line and stop the run).  Both teams are out of it, but I think Green Bay will find a way to get this one.  I think the Jaguars have given up on Jack Del Rio, and there is no way they will be motivated to play any game the rest of the year.  Even if Green Bay struggles defensively in this one, it won’t matter.  Packers win.

– Panthers over Broncos: I think this is Denver’s most difficult test to date.  The Panthers set a franchise record with 299 rushing yards last week in their win against Tampa Bay, as both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart topped 115 yards, each averaged over 7.0 yards a carry, and each scored two touchdowns.  The Panthers did that against one of the best run defenses in the NFL, and given Denver’s trouble stopping the run this season, even though it has improved lately, that does not bode well.  For the Broncos to have any shot in this one, Champ Bailey must play.  The Broncos can’t afford to have just seven in the box and hope to stop Carolina’s running game.  They must employ eight in the box to even have a hope of containing Williams and Stewart, which means they will have no choice but to single up Steve Smith.  If Bailey’s not in there, Dre’ Bly can’t be counted on to do that.  Carolina’s offensive line has been blowing people off the ball, so it will be interesting to see how the Broncos defense decides to play this one.  Denver does have the offensive weapons to keep up, but they are down to their sixth option at running back after the Peyton Hillis injury.  I think the Broncos will stay in it for awhile, but I just don’t see them winning.  Carolina wins to keep hope alive for the top spot in the NFC.  

– Chiefs over Chargers: UPSET ALERT.  I’ll be honest, I have no idea who is going to win this game.  San Diego finally looked the way they were supposed to against the Raiders, and they are still mathematically alive, even if it isn’t likely that they’ll win out while Denver loses out.  If the Chargers play the way they did last week, they should win easily.  Thing is, they have been woefully inconsistent all season.  We’ve been waiting for the Chargers to show some consistency this year, and they just haven’t done it.  The Chiefs have played very hard most of the year even if their record doesn’t show it, and they very nearly won the first meeting in San Diego if not for a failed two point conversion attempt at the end of the game.  Kansas City has good young talent, and if they can force the Chargers into mistakes, they will be very much in this game in the fourth quarter.  I do think Kansas City will win at least one more before the year is out, and I think the Arrowhead factor (even if it isn’t full) will be enough to sway the upset.  

– Cardinals over Vikings: This will be a very entertaining game.  Adrian Peterson vs. the Cardinals areal circus.  This will be an interesting contrast between Arizona’s high powered offense and Minnesota’s tough run defense.  Thing is, Arizona doesn’t run the ball much, so Minnesota won’t be able to play to its strength defensively.  Jared Allen will be able to pressure Kurt Warner, but since when has pressure ever bothered Warner?  The Cardinals receivers are guaranteed to put up big numbers at home no matter who the opponent is, so we know the Cardinals will put up lots of points.  The onus is on the Vikings to match them, and even with Peterson, I don’t think they have the horses to keep up in this kind of shootout game.  Minnesota is going to have do something to address its quarterback play in the offseason, because it really seems as though they have everything else they need.  It will be the lack of quarterback play that will doom them here.  Arizona wins, putting them in position for the three seed in the NFC, while the Vikings would still be in the North lead due to tiebreakers with a loss.  

– Falcons over Buccaneers: Another entertaining game in the south.  This could well end up being a play-in game of sorts for a playoff spot in the NFC.  It’s also very possible that both of these teams will get in.  Either way, both teams know this is a huge game.  Tampa Bay dominated the first meeting in Tampa in week two, but that was before Matt Ryan was very comfortable in the league.  This will be at the Georgia Dome, and Michael Turner has to be licking his chops after watching the Bucs’ defense get completely run over Monday night in Charlotte.  Is the Buccaneers’ run defense suddenly vulnerable?  You know they’ve worked on that all week, but even if they completely corral Turner, they still have Ryan and the passing game to contend with.  I think Atlanta will enough success in the passing game to put up points, and I really think the Tampa Bay offense is hard pressed to win high scoring games.  Antonio Bryant had the game of his life last week and it still wasn’t near enough.  Atlanta wins a very close game to put themselves in playoff position with two games to play.

– Seahawks over Rams: Seattle will win this one easily.  The Rams appear to be another team that has given up on the season, even with Steven Jackson back in the lineup.  The Seahawks will again start Seneca Wallace, but he actually played very well last week against the Patriots, and even he should be able to light it up against one of the worst pass defenses in the league.  Mike Holmgren has to be wishing he retired a year earlier, but he will have a rare win to enjoy here down the stretch of the season.  The Rams have had attendance trouble for years, and this will officially be a non-sellout and television blackout in St. Louis.  If you are one of the few in the country stuck with this game, I suggest finding a sports bar or using the time to catch up on yard work.  

– Cowboys over Giants: UPSET ALERT.  This will be a much better game than the first meeting, which the Giants won quite handily.  Dallas is in absolute must win mode to make the playoffs, and they will have no trouble getting up for a Sunday night game against one of their biggest rivals.  The Cowboys are coming off a frustrating loss in Pittsburgh, but they outplayed the Steelers for most of the game.  There are reports of friction between Tony Romo and Terrell Owens (is anyone surprised?) but Owens always gets up for big games, especially at home, and I really smell a monster game from him.  If he does come through, look out.  The Giants looked very exposed last week against the Eagles, and that showed the rest of the league that they can be beaten and aren’t invincible.  The Plaxico Burress mess seems to be affecting them more than first thought, and they still won’t have Brandon Jacobs in this one.  I still think the Giants have the inside track to the Super Bowl in the NFC, but it can’t be considered a foregone conclusion after their loss last week.   The Giants have all but clinched the division even with a loss here, so the Cowboys have much more on the line.  Dallas wins.  

– Eagles over Browns: Yawn.  ESPN must really regret that they are stuck with yet another Browns game.  How many is that now, 10?  I know it only seems like that many, but it seems like they get a night game every week.  How did anyone think Cleveland was a contender at the start of the year?  Yes, they did beat the Giants, but that was only one game.  This matchup should be case for extending flex scheduling to Monday nights, because really everyone knows how this game is going to go.  Ken Dorsey will look lost and confused, Brian Westbrook will run wild, and the Eagles will win by at least three touchdowns.  Philadelphia is dangerous, and they just might sneak into the playoffs.  That tie in Cincinnati and McNabb’s benching in Baltimore really seems to have woken them up and lit a fire under them.  The Eagles are not a team I’d want to see down the stretch, especially on the road.

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Thursday Night Football Pick – Week 15

Posted by mizzou1028 on December 11, 2008

This game between the Bears and Saints and Soldier Field is definitely intriguing.  In many ways it is a de-facto playoff game, since the winner will be able to keep their faint hopes alive while the loser is essentially eliminated for all intents and purposes.  The Saints have a solid record, but they are in last place in the brutal NFC South and probably need to win out to secure a playoff spot and even at that need some help.  The Bears are within spitting distance of the lead in the NFC North, particularly with the Vikings still facing the prospect of suspensions for the two Williams on the defensive line.  Both teams are coming off nice wins last week.  New Orleans was able to get enough offense (as they usually do at home) to overtake a hot Falcons team, while the Bears defense easily put the clamps on struggling Jacksonville.  

To me the Saints have way more talent than the Bears, especially on offense.  Drew Brees is having an MVP type season and he has plenty of weapons at his disposal, especially now that Reggie Bush is back.  His presence especially in the passing game has opened up opportunities for Marques Colston and Lance Moore to make plays,  Thing is, while the Saints have been awesome in the Superdome, they have been awful on the road on more than one occasion.  The game will be in the cold, wind and possible snow at Soldier Field.   This will be an interesting matchup in any case for the Saints offense because while Chicago has given up big plays on defense, they have proven very adept at stopping the run and forcing turnovers.  I think this matchup favors the Bears in that regard considering the elements.  For all of their fireworks, the road has not been kind to Brees and company, and you add an aggressive defense to the mix, it doesn’t bode well for New Orleans.  If the Bears defense is successful in forcing turnovers (especially early), they will be able to control the tempo with Matt Forte and not have to put Kyle Orton in a position to have to make plays.  The Bears know the Saints’ quick strike capabilities, so definitely expect a run oriented game plan from Lovie Smith.  

It is interesting to note that the Saints can never seem to catch a break.  This will be their third straight meeting in this series in Soldier Field (including the 2006 NFC Championship).  The Bears have in fact not played in the Superdome since 2003, owing to a Saints “home” game played in Baton Rouge in 2005 due to Hurricane Katrina.  All told, this will be seventh meeting out of nine games in this series that will be played at Soldier Field since 1997.  The Saints have actually fared well in Chicago during that time, winning four of those meetings, but I just don’t see it this time.  The Saints are a track meet type team playing on the road in the elements against a team that is still alive in its division and will certainly be fired up by the home crowd in a night game.  The Saints have just been too up and down to rely on in a road game.  

The pick: Chicago 24 New Orleans 20.  Rest of the picks coming before the weekend.

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Peyton Hillis on Injured Reserve

Posted by mizzou1028 on December 8, 2008

BREAKING NEWS: The Broncos lost yet another running back today with the announcement that Peyton Hillis has been placed on injured reserve.  Coach Mike Shanahan says it will be an 8 week recovery time but that Hillis should be healthy next season.

This obviously a huge blow to the Broncos running game, which has already lost Michael Pittman, Andre Hall and Ryan Torain to season ending injuries.  Selvin Young has also essentially not seen any significant action since week five due to injury.  Hillis was Denver’s fifth option at running back, and was performing spectacularly, becoming the only back in the league to top 100 yards against the Jets last week.  He was averaging a crisp 7.3 yards per carry yesterday against the Chiefs before going down while making an awesome catch in the air of all things.  This makes Tatum Bell the starter for now, and he was selling cell phones at a mall a month ago.  Young should return before the season is over, hopefully this week at Carolina, and that would help too. 

The Broncos have not been able to catch a break in the backfield this season.  How many other teams do you know that are down to their sixth running back?  Can you name the sixth running back option on any team?  I sure can’t.  Would there be any team in this predicament that would actually be leading its division and still be a threat on offense?  I would say an emphatic no on both accounts, yet here are the Broncos on the cusp of a division title, and their offense still has the potential to put up big numbers.  For those of you out there that aren’t fans of Mike Shanahan and are disappointed about some of the losses this season, ask yourself how this team has managed to win eight games when they are this hard pressed to even find a healthy body to play running back, let alone considering their injuries on defense?  I argue that this is the best coaching job of Shanahan’s career, better than his two Super Bowl winning seasons.   If Tatum Bell goes for 100 yards at Carolina Sunday, then I rest my case with that argument.  One thing is for sure, this team will keep fighting, no matter how many more players go down.

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One Step Closer

Posted by mizzou1028 on December 8, 2008

The Broncos are going to the playoffs!  Well, more than likely they are.  It would take a complete collapse in every way for them not to.  The Broncos merely need to win one of their final three games to clinch the AFC West title.  Or they can get it if the Chargers lose any of their remaining three contests, two of which are on the road.  Either way, the Broncos FINALLY were able to take care of business at home, although it wasn’t easy against the rival Chiefs.  Denver fell behind 10-0, then 17-7, yet rallied in the end.  These days in the NFL, I don’t care how pretty it is, or many style points are involved in a win.  Anytime you get a victory in the NFL, especially against a division rival, it is a positive.

I’ll admit there was a fair amount of screaming after Maurice Leggett picked off Jay Cutler and returned it 27 yards for a touchdown to give the Chiefs an early 10-0 lead.  After all, it was turnovers that doomed the Broncos in the first meeting.  In fact, it is rare to admit that the Broncos won despite losing the turnover battle, which is surprising but also shows that the Broncos didn’t let the early error rattle them.  I really thought the Broncos showed a lot of poise by not panicking early, even after it was later 17-7.  Jay Cutler made good decisions, and the receivers all stepped up to make big catches, especially Brandon Marshall.  Marshall had his first big game in awhile, catching 11 passes, including two scores.  Overall Cutler ended up completing 32 of 40 passes, and all told eight different players caught a pass in this game for the Broncos.   

Unfortunately, Peyton Hillis suffered a hamstring pull while leaping to make a spectacular catch in the second quarter and didn’t return.  Even after this happened, the Broncos still found a running game with Tatum Bell, a phenomenal achievement considering he is their sixth option now at running back this season.  This could have been a huge blow considering Hillis had rushed for 58 yards on just 8 carries at that point in the game, including two runs where he absolutely bowled over Chiefs defenders.  Bell stepped up and added 52 yards on 11 carries, preventing the Denver attack from becoming completely one dimensional.  The defense has also really continued to pick up the pieces without Champ Bailey, D.J. Williams and Nate Webster, coming up with a critical goal line stand with the game on the line in the fourth quarter.  

I also think Kansas City deserves a lot of credit for playing hard in this game.  I have really knocked Herm Edwards this season, but I’m starting to think maybe he should have a chance to see the rebuilding project through next season.  The Chiefs have good young talent at a variety of positions, including receiver Dwayne Bowe and rookie cornerback Brandon Flowers, who had a spectacular game.  They sure didn’t look like a 2-10 team to me, and it’s not out of the question that they might win another one before the year is over.  I think in the end the Broncos ended up matching Kansas City’s intensity, but the Chiefs are not an easy out for teams these days despite their poor record.

A few more quick hit thoughts from the game:

– The Denver special teams does need serious work.  Too many times they allowed good returns by the Chiefs, while not getting good starting field position themselves.  Also, Matt Prater missed a makeable 33-yard field goal.  This cannot happen in the playoffs against a tough opponent.

– On the other hand, the Broncos made the best of their field position disadvantage.  The Broncos had three touchdown drives of 80 yards or longer, including a 95 yard march that gave them the lead for good on Marshall’s 6-yard TD grab from Cutler.  The four Denver scoring drives were all 11 plays or longer.  This reflects good decision making and good clock management. 

– It was great to see that our fans actually remember how to make some noise.  Granted, I have not been able to attend any games at Invesco Field at Mile High this season owing to my duties running the radio broadcast at the station, but all of the players said it was by far the loudest crowd of the season, and that they got a tremendous lift from that.  I really think our fans are quickly realizing that Mike Shanahan and his staff really deserve to be commended for coaxing eight wins out of this group considering all the injuries.

– Tyler Thigpen might actually have a future in this league.  He has a good arm, and if he’s surrounded by good talent, the Chiefs could certainly do a lot worse.  

– The Broncos run defense is much improved from before the bye week in October.  Today Larry Johnson rushed for just 36 yards on 11 carries for just a 3.3 average, after he torched the Broncos for 198 in the first meeting.  

– I swear Tony Gonzalez complains about a no-call every time a defensive back breathes on him.  Nonetheless, he is one of the great tight ends in NFL history, and deserves to be on a contending team next season if that’s what he wants.  It will be interesting to see what Kansas City does with him in the offseason.

– I think the Broncos could really use Bailey and Williams next week at Carolina.  Yes, the young kids are playing extremely well, but the Broncos will simply not have a chance of slowing down Steve Smith and Mushin Muhammad without Bailey in there.

– Any win is a good win, but a division win is especially key.

The race down the stretch will be interesting to watch.  The Broncos could end up as the 3 or 4 seed in the AFC, as they are now tied with AFC East co-leaders Miami, New England and the Jets.  If the Jets win the division, Denver owns a head-to-head tiebreaker (as the Dolphins and Patriots do on the Broncos).  The Broncos hold out slim hope for a bye, although that is a real longshot with a two game deficit and three to play.  Denver looks to be hosting a playoff game in the first round as a division champ, so there is a chance that could springboard them for a run.  If they are to do that though, they’d better hope Hillis isn’t done for the year, and they will eventually need their injured players back on defense.  Anything is possible in this wild and wacky NFL, after all both New York teams suffered stunning losses today and we came thisclose to seeing Detroit and Seattle pull out surprise wins.

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Week Fourteen Picks

Posted by mizzou1028 on December 6, 2008

I’ll admit, the joke is on me.   Clearly I misfired on last night’s game.  Why don’t we just pretend I didn’t make a fool of myself with that pick?  Clearly I should have realized that the Raiders are always too much of a mess to rely on for a pick in any scenario, especially on the road.  I have to admit I really thought the Chargers had essentially given up on the season and that the Raiders had actually been playing well on defense and would be fired up for a division rival.   I really thought San Diego would not be able to throw the ball against them, but the Raiders secondary was not up to the task last night.  Last night’s performance by the Chargers was what we had actually been expecting to see from them all season.  They got an actual good game by LT, a 3 touchdown performance by Philip Rivers and an aggressive effort on defense.  I still think it will be too little too late for the Chargers, who must win out if the Broncos win on Sunday to even have a chance at the division.  San Diego is still an awful 5-8, and they do still have a trip to Tampa Bay, while the Broncos get to host the Chiefs and Bills down the stretch.  It will take a lot for the Chargers to end up as division champs.  Anything is possible in this wacky NFL season, but I just don’t see it.  Let’s forget about last night’s disastrous pick and let’s just move on to the rest:

Last Week:  11-5 (.687)   Season: 119-72-1 (.620)   Season record includes last night’s incorrect pick

– Dolphins over Bills:  Dolphins coach Tony Sparano really needs to need the league office a big thank you gift, because this Bills “home” game will be played in Toronto.  It my personal opinion that this is laying the groundwork for an eventual move of the Bills franchise to Toronto.  The Bills also played a preseason “home” game in Toronto, and are also signed up for two more regular season games there over the next four seasons.  The Bills ownership has long complained that they do not have the revenue to compete, and Ralph Wilson Stadium remains one of the oldest stadiums in the league (never mind that means it is one of the few genuine home field advantages that still exists, but since it doesn’t bring in revenue that doesn’t seem to matter anymore).  The Dolphins benefit big time in that this game will be played indoors instead of out in the wind and snow of Buffalo.  Miami should be able to run the ball, although Ronnie Brown has struggled recently, and the Bills crashed back to Earth last week in an embarrassing home loss to San Francisco.  I think the Dolphins defense will be able to force Trent Edwards into mistakes, and I think Chad Pennington will be able to make enough good decisions to be able to make plays against the Bills defense.  If this game was in actually in Buffalo I would be tempted to go with the Bills, but the neutral location eliminates any advantage whatsoever the Bills would otherwise have in this matchup.  Some Bills fans may travel, but really how many will make the trip in this economy?  Miami wins. 

– Patriots over Seahawks:  New England really shot themselves in the foot last week and is now in a position where they may need to win out to make the playoffs.  They trail the Jets by one game in the division, and also trail the Colts and Ravens in the wild card while being on the wrong end of tiebreakers.  In any case I think it is safe to say that after last week’s game, talk of the Pats keeping Matt Cassel and trading Tom Brady will be significantly cooled.  I still think Cassel has performed admirably this season, but he has not stepped up in a couple of big games.  The Patriots will be helped by a really friendly schedule down the stretch, including this game against a hapless Seattle team.  The Seahawks have looked lost from the word go this season, and Matt Hasselbeck’s return has not helped out the offense in any way.  NBC made a very wise decision to dump this sure blowout in favor of a more competitive game.  New England will roll, especially factoring in that Bill Belichick does not lose back-to-back games. 

– Jets over 49ers: The Jets had a letdown last week after they had won five in a row.  This week they should be able to regroup, although they do have the long trip west.  By the way, I never heard from any Jets fans explaining why they thought it appropriate to boo Broncos injuries last week, so if you’re still out there I’d love to hear from you.  Otherwise I will assume that Jets fans admit there is no justification for such poor and embarrassing behavior.  As for the team, I expect Brett Favre to rebound from one of his worst efforts of the season, and have little trouble picking apart San Francisco’s suspect pass defense.  If Thomas Jones has another big day, the Jets offense will be able to do whatever it wants.  The 49ers did get a surprising win last week in Buffalo, but they will not have the horses to keep up here.  Frank Gore’s numbers have really slipped the past few weeks, and if he doesn’t have a big game, the Niners have no chance.  The Jets withstand an early punch and then pull away for the win. 

– Colts over Bengals: This will be a guaranteed blowout.  I give the Bengals a zero percent chance to win.  Even if the entire Colts offense were forced to exit due to injury, I still give the Bengals no chance to win.  Granted, Indianapolis has been probably the luckiest team in the league this season.  The Colts could have easily lost in Minnesota week two, and in Houston week five if not for boneheaded plays by the opposing quarterbacks.  They also benefited last week from an outstanding game by their defense in a rare case where nobody on offense showed up.  Still, the Colts with Peyton Manning are not a team I would want to see in the playoffs, and that’s exactly where Indianapolis looks headed with their super friendly schedule down the stretch.  The Bengals have been awful all year, and changes have to be coming next season.  If they retain Marvin Lewis as coach, which it sounds like they might, then ownership really needs to get its head examined.  The Colts should have no trouble getting the offense back on track in this one and getting momentum going down the stretch.

– Titans over Browns: Tennessee bounced back in a big way last week against Detroit and is all but sewn up home field advantage in the playoffs.  The Titans sport a two game lead for the top spot in the AFC with four to play, and they kick start the home stretch with what should be a guaranteed win at home against a bad team that is playing out the stretch.  I still fail to see how anyone fancied the Browns as a true contender in the preseason.  To be fair, they have dealt with numerous injuries and will be forced into starting their third string quarterback in this game (Ken Dorsey), but Cleveland never had the look of a contender even in the preseason.  Romeo Crennel will surely be one of several coaches on the firing line at the end of the season, and I just don’t see the Browns being able to put up much of a fight on the road in this one.  Tennessee found its running game again last week, and they will have no trouble piling up yards on the ground against the Browns.  The Titans defense will also be able to force turnovers and control the line of scrimmage.  Tennessee has had 10 days to get ready for this one and this will be a game many viewers will be flipping away from early.  Titans roll. 

– Steelers over Cowboys: This was a really hard game to pick.  Both teams are coming off big wins and both teams will be able to make a lot of noise in the playoffs.  Marion Barber is slightly hobbled for Dallas, and though he will try to play, I think his not being 100 percent will really hurt the Cowboys running game.  This will allow the Pittsburgh defense to put pressure on Tony Romo.  I think the Steelers will also put the clamps on Terrell Owens and really make it hard for Dallas to move the football.   Despite all that, this game could ultimately be decided by how well Pittsburgh can move the ball against the Cowboy defense.  The Heinz Field turf is quickly getting a reputation for being the worst in the league, and it will be interesting to see if that is a factor also.  I do think Pittsburgh will be able to run the ball, and the Steelers seem to usually step up for big games like this.  If Pittsburgh plays as well as they did last week, they will be able to win this one as well.  The good news for Dallas is since this is an interconference game, it will not cripple them for playoff tiebreakers.  Pittsburgh wins. 

– Packers over Texans: Matt Schaub returns to quarterback the Texans, although Sage Rosenfels looked like he was finally getting some rhythm last week.  Houston has the potential to play spoiler for a lot of teams down the stretch, and they do have the talent to win a few games here and there.  I still think if everyone is healthy next season, they really could be a team to watch.  This however will be their first ever trip to Lambeau Field, and that’s usually bad news for opponents.  Green Bay has really been a tough team to figure, although they are still in the NFC North race despite their 5-7 record.  The offense scored 31 points against a good Carolina defense last week, but they still couldn’t figure out a way to win.  Green Bay’s problem all year has been their defense, so they will have an interesting matchup trying to contain Andre Johnson and Steve Slaton.  This pick is really more about a gut feeling than anything else.  I think Houston is more than capable of winning, but Green Bay has more on the line and they will have the elements and the crowd behind them.  I say Aaron Rodgers makes one more play than Schaub to lead the Packers to a win, keeping their slim hopes alive.

– Bears over Jaguars: This is a game matching two struggling teams.  Jacksonville has clearly given up on coach Jack Del Rio, and I wouldn’t be shocked at this point if they failed to win another game.  Del Rio is clearly on the chopping block at the end after his team was picked by many (including me) to have a really good year and possibly represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.  Now, the Jaguars are in such a mess that David Garrard can’t even drop back to pass without tripping over one of his own linemen.  Fred Taylor has reportedly made comments that it’s the worst team he’s ever played on, and the chemistry is non-existent.  The Bears should roll in Soldier Field against this mess of a team, except for the fact that Kyle Orton hasn’t exactly performed well in recent weeks.  The good news for Chicago is they do have talented rookie Matt Forte in the backfield, and he should have no trouble running for more than enough yards to make up the difference.  The Bears defense certainly has its faults, but forcing turnovers isn’t one of them.  They’ll get a couple here and win comfortably against the fading Jags, keeping their NFC North hopes alive in the process.

– Broncos over Chiefs: Denver suffered an extremely embarrassing loss to the Chiefs in week four, and will clearly be looking for revenge.  The Broncos are certainly a hard team to figure because they seem to play to their competition, but if they lose this game it will be even more of an embarrassment than the week four loss.  The Broncos allowed Larry Johnson to rush for 198 yards in the first meeting, the most they’ve ever allowed to the Chiefs, but they have really made an effort to shore up their run defense since then.  The Broncos defense has been banged up, and may or may not get some of their injured players back, but they managed to force Brett Favre into one of his worst games of the year last week, and they will come after Tyler Thigpen.  Denver’s offense is clicking again now that Tony Scheffler is finally healthy.  The Chiefs will not be able to cover all of Denver’s receivers, and if the Broncos avoid turnovers they will be fine.  After the horrendous home loss to Oakland two weeks ago, Mike Shanahan will make sure his team is focused and ready for this one and will ensure the Broncos don’t take the Chiefs lightly.  It wouldn’t surprise me if the game was close owing to the nature of the rivalry and Denver’s propensity for letdowns this season, but I don’t see any way the Broncos lose this game and allow themselves to get swept by one of the worst teams in the league.  Denver wins. 

– Giants over Eagles:  I pick the Giants even in the wake of the Plaxico Burress debacle for a couple of reasons.  One, they are the best team in the league by far, so if there is any team that can overcome this kind of distraction, it’s the Giants.  Second, Tom Coughlin is the kind of coach that can keep his team focused in any situation.  It does remain to be seen what will happen with Antonio Pierce and his potential involvement, but I expect a big game from him Sunday as he welcomes the distraction of being back on the field.  Third, The Giants are playing a Philadelphia team that once again does not appear to have Brian Westbrook at 100 percent (despite his four touchdowns last week) and is still inconsistent.  I think the Giants defense will harass Donovan McNabb, and the Giants’ offense will run the ball effectively as usual.  I think the Giants will win, and it could well be by a lot. 

– Vikings over Lions: I thought about picking Detroit to end their winless slide here, but I just don’t see it.  Kevin and Pat Williams will play for the Vikings after their suspensions have been blocked in court, so Minnesota will have no trouble stopping the Lions’ running game.  Detroit looked so bad last week in every area, that I do not see how they will possibly be able to have any kind of offense against the Vikings.  Minnesota has Adrian Peterson and that will be more than enough offense for them.  This does seem like a trap game for the Vikings in light of their big win against the Bears last week and their division lead, but I think Minnesota will do just enough to win this one and keep their lead.

– Saints over Falcons: Atlanta won the first meeting at the Georgia Dome big, and I think the Saints will return the favor in the Superdome.  Drew Brees and company are much more effective at home than on the road, and the Saints do have Reggie Bush back after he had one game last week to get back in the swing of things.  I think the Saints will cause trouble for teams even though their playoffs hopes are about done because they have so much talent on offense.  Atlanta has proved it is for real with a road win in San Diego last week, and I think they will put points up in this game too.  Michael Turner scored four touchdowns in the first meeting, so the Saints will be sure to key on him, but a  hunch says that while the Falcons will score points, New Orleans will get a few more.  This will be an entertaining shootout and a good reason to have DirecTV.  I say the Saints win one of the higher scoring games of the year.

– Cardinals over Rams: Arizona is dominant at home.  The Rams stink on the road.  The Cardinals won the first meeting 34-13 and will win this one by at least that.  Nothing more needs to be said.   Arizona will have no trouble bouncing back from their loss in Philadelphia.  The Cardinals win the NFC West with a victory, meaning they will host a playoff game for the first time in their entire lifespan in Phoenix.  The apocalypse must be near. 

– Ravens over Redskins: This will be a better Sunday night offering than the originally scheduled Patriots-Seahawks blowout, although this could easily be a blowout as well.  The Redskins are quickly fading, and Clinton Portis really does appear to be hobbling now.  That is bad news when you hit the road to face the Ravens’ ballhawking defense.  Baltimore is quickly closing in on the Steelers, and while there may be slight concern about looking ahead to next week’s showdown with Pittsburgh, this one is for regional bragging rights in the Beltway.  Baltimore has an offense to go with their defense in this one, and I think the Ravens will stomp Washington from the word go and blow the Redskins right out of M&T Bank Stadium.  Baltimore is for real, and I would not want to see them in the playoffs. 

– Panthers over Buccaneers: This could well be the game of the week on Monday night.  Tampa Bay won the first meeting emphatically 27-3, but the Panthers are at home this time.  It will be critical for Jake Delhomme to not make mistakes because the Tampa defense will make him pay if he does.  Delhomme threw three picks in the first meeting and that was the difference.  I envision a strong run game plan from John Fox, as the Panthers will use both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.  The Panthers defense may not be as talented as the Bucs, but they can cause trouble for Jeff Garcia.  If the Panthers running game gets going, it will be tough for the Buccaneers to be able to keep up.  Both teams will make the playoffs, but the winner of this game could get a first round playoff bye which would be huge.  This will be a great game, and I think the Panthers will be able to pull it out.

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Thursday Night Football Pick

Posted by mizzou1028 on December 4, 2008

We’ve run into a busy week in the Fischer household, so we’ll have a quick pick here on tonight’s game, and the rest of the games will be selected tomorrow, we promise. 

Needless to say this is a big game in the AFC West.  The Broncos will certainly be watching closely because they will all but clinch the division if the Raiders pull the upset tonight, needing only a win Sunday against the hapless Chiefs in that case.  San Diego has got to rank as one of the biggest disappointments in the league at a seemingly unbelievable 4-8 (I still say Jacksonville is a bigger disappointment, but not by much).  The Chargers have won just one game since Oct. 12, and that was a one point win over Kansas City thanks to a Chiefs missed two point conversion at the end of the game.  Strangely enough, the Raiders actually have more wins in that span than the Chargers, having beaten the Jets on Oct. 19 and the Broncos two weeks ago. 

What is most surprising about the Chargers has been the down play of LaDainian Tomlinson, who clearly has not been the best back in football this season.  Granted, the troubles on the O-line have something to do with that, but the Chargers offense has not been near as explosive as in past years.  Likewise, their defense has struggled without Shawne Merriman.  Their loss to Atlanta last week was nowhere near as close as the score indicated.  If not for a defensive TD, the Chargers would have been blown out.  The Falcons dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and had a dominant edge in every stat category.  The Raiders are also coming off a loss to Kansas City in which the score seems close but in which the Raiders didn’t play up to their potential.  JaMarcus Russell has really struggled at the quarterback position, and the running game has also been non existent most games.  The Raiders defense however has actually played very well most games, and they do seem to step up and play to the level of their competition.

Two weeks ago against Denver, the Raiders completely shut down the Broncos passing game and were able to force turnovers.  Two weeks before that, the Raiders held Jake Delhomme to just 7 of 27 and forced him into four picks.  Call me crazy, but I think Philip Rivers is about to have a very long night.  If the Raiders can shut down San Diego’s running game, which is possible with LT not being himself, and if Rivers is forced to win the game for San Diego, he won’t be able to.  The Oakland secondary is very underrated and is actually among the best in the league, especially Nnamdi Asoumgua, who should absolutely be a Pro Bowler.  If the Raiders can force turnovers, their offense might just be able to take advantage of them and put up some points against the Chargers.

Either way, this game will definitely be ugly.  Personally I might just watch more of the Texas-UCLA college basketball showdown as ugly as this game could get.  Something just doesn’t seem right about San Diego.  The Chargers have been in desperation mode for a month and have not figured out how to win.  If it didn’t kick in by now, it probably won’t.  When these teams played in week four, Oakland had a 15-3 fourth quarter lead, and that was before the Al Davis-Lane Kiffin divorce.  I smell something fishy here.  I think the Chargers are done, and Norv Turner should be as well at the end of the season.  San Diego never should have fired Marty Schottenheimer, and their mistake is quickly coming home to roost.

The pick: Oakland pulls the upset.  Raiders 17-13

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We Need Playoffs in College Football!!!

Posted by mizzou1028 on December 3, 2008

I have so much to say on this topic that I’m not sure where to begin.  The current college football system to determine a champion is so absurd that no words I can use to describe it would do it justice.  Imagine for a moment if the NFL has a BCS type of system instead of its current playoff setup.  Each of the past three seasons would have turned out radically different if you had simply selected the top two teams and automatically advanced them to the Super Bowl without a playoff tournament.  Here what would have resulted with a “BCS” type system and what actually transpired:

2005: hypothetical “BCS” matchup: Indianapolis (No. 1 AFC) vs. Seattle (No. 1 NFC)                

          reality: Pittsburgh (No. 6 AFC) vs. Seattle

2006:  hypothetical “BCS” matchup: San Diego (No. 1 AFC) vs. Chicago (No. 1. NFC)

           reality: Indianapolis (No. 3 AFC) vs. Chicago

2007:  hypothetical “BCS” matchup: New England (No. 1 AFC) vs. Dallas (No. 1 NFC)

           reality: New England vs. NY Giants (No. 5 NFC)

The point of this is to illustrate that the Super Bowl hardly ever ends up actually matching the top two teams from each conference during the regular season, so why should it be assumed that the BCS Championship game wouldn’t be different after a playoff?  This year’s setup for starters has all kinds of red flags, not the least of which is Oklahoma leapfrogging Texas for a spot in the Big 12 title game on Saturday, and thus an inside track to the title game.  Of course, the other absurdity here is that Texas could end up benefiting by not playing if Mizzou upsets the Sooners, which is possible but not likely.  That argument aside, Texas Tech deserves to gripe as well, being that they beat Texas and sport the same record as Texas and OU at 11-1.  How about the other one loss teams?  Florida is considered the front runner if they beat undefeated Alabama on Saturday, but why should the Tide necessarily fall behind say Texas or OU?  What about USC?  Or Penn State?   Those teams have one loss too.  This doesn’t even take into account Utah and Boise State, both of whom are undefeated, and in Utah’s case having beaten several quality opponents.  Because these teams were ranked low to start the season and don’t play in power conferences, they are automatically ineligible for a national title.  In basketball, every team can win the national championship.  Granted it’s unlikely, but last year Davidson was one shot away from making the Final Four, and of course George Mason made the Final Four a few years ago.  The mid-majors have a chance in basketball, but are given no chance in football.  For me the biggest BCS farce of all-time was in 2004, when Auburn went undefeated, beat Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl, and still didn’t get a shot at the national title because USC also went undefeated.  Or how about 2001, when a one loss Oregon team was left out of the title game in favor of one loss Nebraska, who didn’t win its own conference or even make it to the Big 12 title game? 

The current system essentially rewards team for losing early in the season, which is why Oklahoma and Florida are in the driver’s seat so to speak.  Because Texas Tech lost recently (granted by a lot) they slipped too far in the BCS standings to catch up.   A championship game matchup shouldn’t strictly be based on who is hot at the end of the season.  Sure, that can allow a team to run through a playoff, but at least then they are earning it on the field, not getting rewarded by voters or computers.  I realize playoff proposals are the rage these days, and we know that ESPN has signed up for the tv rights for the BCS until 2014.  Knowing this, it appears we are stuck with this system until at least that time.  Let’s also be frank here, money has been the driving factor for the college presidents wanting to keep the status quo.  They also don’t want to wreck the tradition of the bowls, but haven’t they already done that by playing the national title game on Jan. 8?  Or playing the Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 5 instead of New Year’s Day? 

My plan involves  the best of both worlds, involving a 16-team playoff while preserving the bowls, sort of.  Here’s how it works:

1. Shorten the regular season: I say let’s eliminate one of the four non-conference games at the start of the season, which all they are is a power team beating up on little sisters of the poor in a no tv game.  Dropping the regular season back to 11 games from 12 would counter the argument that the season would be too long with a playoff.  If that really is their reasoning for not having a playoff, why did they add a 12th regular season game and drag out the bowls past New Years Day?  It makes no sense. 

2. Eliminate the conference championship games: I realize this will never happen because it is too much of a moneymaker, but if a playoff is to be possible, cutting out these games and staging the first round of the playoffs in the first weekend of December would make sense.  That way a full playoff could be staged, but it wouldn’t completely drag out the season.  Conference tournaments are easier to stage in basketball while preserving a tournament because they play so many more games anyway.  As far as the money argument goes, I argue that the tvcontract and ticket revenue streams from a playoff would more than make up for lost revenue from eliminating the conference championships.  Down the road, if there is a way to preserve these games while still going through with a playoff, I’m all for that, but that wouldn’t be realistic.

3. Play the round of 16 in the first weekend of December at home sites:

Start with automatic bids for the champions of the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, ACC, Big East, Pac 10 and Mountain West conferences.  That leaves nine available at-large spots, leaving room for the Boise State’s of the world and other top teams.  Since Notre Dame is not in a conference, they would fall in the at-large category.  In the round of 16, the top 8 would have home field advantage.  I would suggest using a committee similar to basketball to decide the at-large teams and to seed everyone, but another option would be to use the BCS to seed the teams.  Using that, here’s how the round 16 could potentially look this year:

      – No. 16 Georgia at No. 1 Alabama 

      – No. 15 Georgia Tech  at No. 2 Oklahoma

      – No. 14 Oklahoma State at No. 3 Texas

      – No. 13 Cincinnati at No. 4 Florida

      – No. 12 Ball State at No. 5 USC

      – No. 11 TCU at No. 6 Utah

      – No. 10 Ohio State at No. 7 Texas Tech

      – No. 9 Boise State at No. 8 Penn State

Obviously this is a very rough outline, and these pairings result in a lot of conference rematches, but that could be cleaned up by the committee similar to they way they do it in basketball.  In this setup, undefeated Utah, Boise State, and Ball State would have a chance to join the fray.  Think of the excitement a Utah home game against say, Ohio State, would generate.  A school like Boise State finishes unbeaten, let’s see how they do in Happy Valley.  The conference breakdown in this setup of eligible teams is much better than the current setup:

        – Big 12: 4 teams

        – SEC: 3 teams

        – Big 10: 2 teams

        – Mountain West: 2 teams

        – ACC, Big East, Pac 10, MAC, WAC: 1 team each

In some years, the Big 10 may have 4 teams and the Big 12 two teams, or whatever the breakdown would be in most years.  This year, the SEC and Big 12 are by far the best conferences, so they would get more teams in the party this year.  The point is each of these teams (especially Utah and Boise State) would have a shot at a national title, which they are essentially not eligible for right now.

4. Play the quarterfinals, semifinals, and title game as part of the existing bowls:

For arguments sake of this year, let’s say the higher seeded teams in our first round example were to advance.  I say let’s pick some of the best bowl games and incorporate them into our tournament, starting with the quarterfinals.  These bowls would benefit because their games would become meaningful again, and fans might actually be more inclined to watch.  You could have in the quarterfinals in the second weekend of December looking this way:

        – Gator Bowl: Alabama vs. Penn State

        – Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech

        – Sugar Bowl: Texas vs. Utah

        – Holiday Bowl: Florida vs. USC

Your semifinals could be matched in the Fiesta and Orange Bowls on Dec. 20, and then stage your national title game on New Year’s Day in the Rose Bowl.   I picked the Rose Bowl to host the national title game because that way it could stay on New Year’s Day.  I think it’s safe to say the Rose Bowl still is the one with most tradition left, and it seems like the perfect annual host for the national title game.  I thought about rotating the national title game, but the Rose Bowl seems perfect for the national title game.  Imagine 100,000 people in one of the most special places in sports actually seeing a national champion crowned the right way in college football.   Sure beats teams running up scores to impress pollsters doesn’t it?

I know this proposal is not perfect by any means, but is playing the Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 20 in a national semifinal any worse than playing it on Jan. 5 when it is completely meaningless?  I argue that playing it in a semifinal context is infinitely better in every way.  Sure, in a 16-team playoff there would still be teams that feel they would be left out, such as Missouri, BYU, Boston College, Oregon, and Michigan State this season.  That argument would exist no matter how many teams you allowed in, and to me 16 seems like the perfect number.  In the short term, I would settle for 8 or even 4, for even that would be better than the current system.  Hell, in the short term I’d even settle for a plus 1 after the bowl games.  As for the rest of the bowls, such as the extremely prestigious papajohns.com Bowl, let’s keep those and allow teams that didn’t make the playoffs to compete there a la the NIT in basketball.  Regardless of what it would ultimately look like, a playoff system of some kind in college football is obviously long overdue, and it seems like the only people who can’t see that are the ones in charge.  I have not met a single person who actually thinks the current setup is a good idea, so let’s get on with it and get it changed. 

I welcome your feedback and suggestions for a playoff as well.  Any idea is a good one that would bounce the farce that is the BCS and get a playoff system going.  In the meantime, just about every team will have an argument that they should be in the title game, while having no true way to settle this.

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What a Puzzling Team

Posted by mizzou1028 on December 1, 2008

Here’s all you need to know about the Jekyll and Hyde nature of the 2008 Denver Broncos: my record predicting their games this season is 4-8, and I have misfired on seven in a row.  When it looks like the Broncos should win, they lose.  When it looks like they have no hope, they figure out a way to win.  Such is the nature of the NFL these days, where every game is unpredictable.  How can anyone try to predict games in a league where home teams went just 2-10 today?  Think about that for a second.  Home field advantage is clearly not as important as it used to be (for starters these newer stadiums are not near as intimidating for opposing teams), but that’s only part of it.  The league is getting more and more unpredictable because there are fewer dominant teams and more parity.  

This Broncos team in particular is just downright baffling.  Fresh off a 31-10 home loss to one of the worst teams in the league, the Broncos went on the road to Giants Stadium in the rain, to a place where they have never played well against either the Jets or Giants, and beat maybe the hottest team in the AFC 34-17.  The Jets had won five in a row and were coming off road victories against the Patriots and Titans.  

For all of the injuries the Broncos have sustained this season, 7-5 is a heck of an achievement.  The Broncos are down to their fifth running back, yet Peyton Hillis ran for 129 yards against a Jets defense that completely shut down the Titans vaunted running game last week.  You’ve got Eddie Royal, who was doubtful with a toe injury that has been nagging him for six weeks, making a terrific first quarter catch and turning it into a 59-yard touchdown while tiptoeing down the sideline and managing to stay in bounds.  He finished with five catches for 84 yards.  You’ve got linebackers dropping like flies, but here is Mario Haggan, signed off the practice squad just two weeks ago, contributing a key sack of Brett Favre in the third quarter to force a Jets field goal attempt in the red zone when New York was threatening to climb back in it.  Or how many guys nationally have heard of Vernon Fox, who had all of three tackles this season coming into today.  Fox jump started the Broncos’ momentum in the first quarter by alertly scooping up a Jets fumble and returning it 23 yards for a touchdown.  (Side note: why were the Jets trying trick plays, in this case a reverse, when it is pouring rain and the ball is slick?)

Some other thoughts from today’s game:

– It seems as though how Jay Cutler goes, so go the Broncos.  Last week against the Raiders Cutler completed just 43 percent of his throws and finished with an awful 49.8 quarterback rating in a blowout loss.  Today, Cutler completed 63 percent of his passes, throwing for 357 yards and finishing a rating of 94.8.  Sure, the quarterback’s fate dictates the outcome of games for most teams, but it seems particularly true for Cutler

– The Broncos were able to win the turnover battle again today (2-1).  This is not rocket science: the Broncos are now 6-0 when they win the turnover battle and 1-7 when the lose it.  This is not shocking, and is a reflection that the Broncos won today in part because they took care of the ball and didn’t make dumb mistakes

– I remember now why I can’t stand New York teams.  Jets fans actually had the audacity to boo when the Broncos defense suffered injuries on three straight plays in the third quarter (Spencer Larsen, Ebenezer Ekuban and Dre’ Bly).  Ironically, all three plays were catches and runs by Leon Washington, and that drive culminated in a Jets field goal after they stalled in the red zone.  Jets fans apparently thought the Broncos were faking injuries to stop Favre’s momentum on that drive.  Ridiculous.  Does any Jets fan out there want to answer me how arrogant a fan base must be to actually believe a team would fake injury in any case? Seriously I want to hear from a Jets fan why booing an injury was thought to be appropriate here.  The Broncos have been pulling guys off the street to play a variety of positions for the past six weeks.  The entire starting linebacking core was already out coming into this game. They were so banged up two weeks ago against Atlanta they needed Larsen to play both ways.  Mike Shanahan was wondering if he had anyone left to play defense in the fourth quarter.  You really think the Broncos actually wanted to lose key defenders while the Jets were going in for a score?  Especially when they already came into the game missing several key guys?  Please, grow up Jets fans.  At least Broncos fans aren’t dumb enough or immature enough to boo opposing team injuries.  For the record, Larsen didn’t return after his injury.  

– I am more and more convinced that Tony Scheffler’s presence is vital to the success of Denver’s passing game.  His ability to stretch defenses was sorely missed during his three game absence due to a groin injury, all losses.  The Broncos have won three of four since his return, and there are more opportunities for Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal.  The Broncos haven’t had a tight end to stretch the defense like this since Shannon Sharpe.  

– Kudos to the offensive line, and that’s not just for today but all season.  I really believe Ryan Clady should get consideration for rookie of the year.  He has not allowed a sack and has only been called for one penalty all season, absolutely incredible for any left tackle, not just a rookie.  The Broncos’ other tackle, Ryan Harris, is also in his first year after missing his rookie season last year due to injury.  The line as a whole has allowed just seven sacks and has been vital to holding the running game together in the wake of all the injuries at running back.   

This might just be the best coaching job of Mike Shanahan’s career.  He has an extremely young team, which partially explains the up and down nature of their season, yet he has the Broncos in the division lead by three games with just four to play.  Next week the Broncos get Champ Bailey and D.J. Williams back on defense, and Selvin Young should also return to help the running game, although Hillis has done great in Young’s absence.  The good news is the Broncos’ win today just about guarantees the AFC West champion will not be 7-9.   The Broncos and Chargers both have a game remaining against hapless Kansas City, plus they still have to play each other.  The Broncos are home to the Chiefs next week, and Denver’s humiliating week four loss at Arrowhead ought to be enough motivation for the Broncos to roll.  Then again, based on the unpredictable nature of their season, another letdown might not be out of the question.

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BCS = Not Fair

Posted by mizzou1028 on December 1, 2008

One quick note about the BCS standings released today.  I am unable to express my true feelings on Oklahoma jumping Texas for the number two spot, and with it a trip to the Big 12 Championship game, because, well, this is a family column.  Let’s just say that if you took one letter out of BCS you might get what it really is.  Does head to head not matter at all?  Texas beat Oklahoma on a neutral field in October.  Both teams have the same record.  How does that make Oklahoma more deserving of a spot in the conference title game, and by extension an inside track to the national championship game?  Sure, the Sooners have scored a boatload of points, but it shouldn’t matter how hot they’ve been the past two games.  The final standings should reflect the entire body of work for the season.  The BCS essentially rewards teams for losing early in the season, and that is simply not fair.  No doubt Texas fans will be rooting for Missouri to upset OU on Saturday night at Arrowhead.  This situation is exactly why the BCS needs to be dumped. It is ridiculous to suggest that Oklahoma is any more deserving than Texas (or any other one loss team) for the number two spot.  Unfortunately money seems to get the way of common sense here. I’ll say it again, this year screams for a playoff more than ever. My proposal for a playoff is coming this week, so stay tuned for that.

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