Much needed bye week for my Broncos, who will need it to get everyone healthy they can.  I’ve run out of things to say after the embarrassment in New England, so let’s get right to the picks.  

Last Week: 10-4 (.714)  Season: 63-39 (.617)

– Bills over Dolphins: Buffalo showed it is for real with a huge win last week against San Diego.  Trent Edwards has done a solid job managing the game for the Bills, and their young players really seem to play well together.  The Bills already have a road win over Jacksonville on their resume in addition to the win over the Chargers thanks also to their outstanding defense.  They shouldn’t have much trouble containing Miami’s offense on the road, even though the Dolphins have shown they can score at times this year.  Chad Pennington has had trouble against aggressive defenses and Buffalo is certainly in that category.  Miami will keep it close for awhile but the Bills will ultimately win this one.  

– Patriots over Rams: Who are the real Patriots?  Are they the team that destroyed Denver, or the one that imploded against San Diego?  The real answer probably lies somewhere in the middle, which means that in typical New England fashion they will probably find a way to make the playoffs.  It is interesting to note that Matt Cassel is starting his career in similar fashion to the way Tom Brady started his.  Brady took over early in the 2001 season for an injured Drew Bledsoe and struggled early in the year before rounding into form about midway through.   Cassel turned in his best performance by far last week against the Broncos, and faces a favorable matchup this week as well.   The Rams have won two in a row, and are clearly a different team with Jim Haslett running things, but going on the road and winning in one of the league’s toughest venues is too much to ask for them.  Patriots win easily.  

– Jets over Chiefs: This might have to go down as the most sure fire pick in NFL history.  The line on this game is 13, and I’m frankly shocked it isn’t much higher.  I’m so shocked in fact, that I’m downright giddy that I picked this weekend to go to Vegas, which means I can make easy money on this game.  The Chiefs will start Tyler Thigpen at quarterback, which is bad news for KC automatically because he can’t play worth a lick.  Larry Johnson has had his team ordered suspension extended another game, which means the Chiefs will also have no running game to speak of.  The Chiefs’ defense has also been horrible, or didn’t you see the Titans rush for 332 yards at Arrowhead last week?  (Check out the hole on LenDale White’s 80 yard touchdown run, looking at that you’d be nuts not to start every Jet you have in fantasy this week, especially Thomas Jones).  Throw in the fact that the Jets are hopping mad they gave one away at Oakland last week, and you have a guaranteed Jets blowout.  Needless to say this is my selection in second chance eliminator pool this week.

– Ravens over Raiders: Baltimore’s defense returned to form last week in Miami, where they completely shut down Miami’s trick formations, and even scored a touchdown, which had always been their trademark.  The Raiders snuck away with a win last week thanks to the Jets’ inability to capitalize, but they’re going to find it absolutely impossible to move the ball in any way against Baltimore.  The Raiders can’t run the ball consistently and JaMarcus Russell will have trouble finding throwing lanes against Baltimore’s ballhawking secondary.  The Ravens have been stellar at home this year, with the only loss coming at the end against undefeated Tennessee.  Willis McGahee is finally healthy, which means the Ravens will have no trouble running the ball effectively.  This will be trademark Baltimore Ravens game, where they win with running and defense.  Ravens by at least two touchdowns in this one.  

– Texans over Bengals: Houston has won two in a row, and they’re in the midst of a stretch where five of six games are at Reliant Stadium.  Matt Schaub had a field day against Detroit last week, and that will continue against a Bengals defense that hasn’t come close to stopping anyone.  Andre Johnson is continuing to emerge as one of the league’s top receiving threats and the Texans have also found a running game with Steve Slaton.  Cincinnati kept it close for three quarters against Pittsburgh last week, but they wore down big time at the end.  The Bengals defense is on the field way too much because the offense can’t move the ball with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center.  You do have to figure the Bengals have too much talent not to get a win at some point this season, but I would be highly surprised if it came here.  The Texans keep it rolling at home.  

– Jaguars over Browns: Jacksonville is fresh off a bye week, and that is bad news for the Browns.  The Jaguars in many ways are fortunate to be 3-3, but they are now entering the easier part of their schedule and are primed to make a move.  Jacksonville rediscovered its running game against the Broncos before the bye with Maurice Jones-Drew finally breaking out for a big day (to be fair that could be more Denver’s defense).  The Browns surrendered over 200 yards on the ground to Washington last week, so the Jaguars should have a big day on the ground as well.  Derek Anderson reverted to form in a bad way against the Redskins, completing just 14 of 37 passes for 136 yards.  That does not bode well for Cleveland against Jacksonville’s excellent defense.  Is the Brady Quinn watch back on?  It might be if Anderson has another bad day.  Jacksonville should win this one fairly easily.

– Steelers over Giants: This is quite possibly the game of the year to this point, let alone the game of the week.  I went back and forth on this so much I’ve been wondering if I could get away with picking a tie.  Of course that would be the ultimate copout, so I went with the home team because the Steelers always rise to the occasion for a big game at Heinz Field.  The Giants are an outstanding road team which doesn’t really make that a cinch, but they did implode in Cleveland two weeks ago and slogged their way to an ugly win last week against San Francisco.  Eli Manning is arguably playing better than his brother Peyton this year, so that has really helped the Giants, but Pittsburgh is getting great play from seemingly anyone in the lineup.  Last week Mewelde Moore stepped in for Willie Parker and ran down Cincinnati’s throat (of course it was the Bengals).  This will be a fantastic game that should go down to the wire, but again the home field edge will make the difference for Pittsburgh.  Incidentally, did you see the phenomenal block by Hines Ward on Cincinnati’s Keith Rivers?  Every receiver in the league should be required to watch that video to see how they should block in the running game, as well as to learn there is more to playing wide receiver than catching the ball.  Obviously it’s unfortunate that Rivers got injured on the play, and for the record we never advocate injury here, but it is still an example of why Hines Ward is one of the great teammates in the league, willing to sell out even when he isn’t the focal point of the play.  

– Chargers over Saints: This game will be played in London, which is ridiculous from the Saints’ perspective because they are giving up the home game, even after they had their entire home slate wiped out in 2005 due to Hurricane Katrina.  This puts the Saints at a disadvantage in so many ways, not the least of which is that their division rivals get an extra home game, plus don’t have to deal with a midseason overseas trip.  What’s worse for the Saints is they will be without Reggie Bush, who had arthroscopic surgery on his knee and will miss 2-4 weeks.  New Orleans did get Marques Colston back last week, but he was ineffective and was held without a catch.  San Diego also has its own issues after the loss to Buffalo, and they are still trying to get LaDainian Tomlinson on track.  The fact that the Chargers went straight to London from Buffalo also puts them at a travel disadvantage along with the Saints.  All things considered, this is not looking at all like the showcase game the league hoped it would be when they picked it for the London matchup.  Oh, and both teams are extremely desperate for a win to stay in their respective races.  A hunch says San Diego gets it together and wins a close one.

– Cowboys over Buccaneeers: I’m having a hard time jumping off the Cowboys bandwagon completely for several reasons, not the least of which is that I picked them to win the Super Bowl.  That being said, Dallas is clearly dysfunctional, as proven by their loss to the Rams (which I correctly predicted, but we don’t generally brag here).  Brad Johnson will start at quarterback, but the fact that the entire team has actually been aware of it all week may help.  I really thought the Tony Romo will he or won’t he play situation last week was a real distraction for the team.  It will still be interesting to see how Roy Williams fits into the offense or if T.O. can get back on track after four subpar games in a row.  The Buccanneers are playing extremely well, and their defense will certainly pose a difficult challenge for Dallas, and the Bucs’ offense has been better with Jeff Garcia.  All that being said, Dallas knows their entire season may well hinge on this game, with road games against the Giants and Redskins looming.  One would think that type of desperation should be enough to give Dallas a jolt needed to get a much needed home win, unless of course the soap opera season is already beyond saving.    

– Eagles over Falcons: Philadelphia is coming off a much needed bye, which allowed them to get Brian Westbrook and others healthy.  They’ll need Westbrook against a Falcons team that is arguably the league’s biggest surprise at 4-2.  Matt Ryan is playing as well as any rookie quarterback has in recent memory, and the Falcons are starting to believe they can win, even getting a road win at Lambeau Field in week five.  This will certainly be a more difficult road test though with the notoriously hostile Philly fans, especially against an Eagles offense that has its full complement of players for the first time in awhile.  Philadelphia is already looking up at the Giants and Redskins, plus they may have an opportunity to distance themselves from the Cowboys.  Home cooking and the return of Westbrook lifts the Eagles to the win, but it wouldn’t be surprising if this game is competitive into the fourth quarter.  

– Redskins over Lions: Washington snuck away with one last week against the Browns, benefiting from a late missed field goal by Cleveland.  Still, the Redskins are looking like a playoff team again this year, particularly with Clinton Portis running wild.  Jason Campbell has shown so far that he has been able to make good decisions for the most part.  Detroit meanwhile actually showed some spunk last week, nearly erasing a 28-0 deficit to Houston and making things interesting at the end.  I believe the Redskins will ultimately win, but something does smell fishy here.  The Lions are due for a good performance at home, where they have not played well this year.  Washington is in a potential trap situation with a Monday night game against Pittsburgh on the horizon, followed by a string of big division games.  I say Washington will win, but an upset is not out of the question here.

– Panthers over Cardinals: This is a very intriguing game.  Carolina looked like their old selves last week as they rolled over the Saints, while Arizona is coming off a bye following a dramatic win over Dallas.  Jake Delhomme had one of his best games last week, and the entire offense looks like it is benefiting big time from the return of Mushin Muhammad, who returned after three years with the Bears.  The Carolina running game also has nice balance with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.  The Cardinals have also been very stellar offensively, with Kurt Warner having a huge year so far.  The Cardinals also benefit from the return of star receiver Anquan Boldin, who missed several games after getting his bell rung in week four against the Jets.  Still, Carolina is extremely difficult to beat at home, and Arizona hasn’t really proven they can win away from the desert yet.  The Panthers will win a relatively close one here.

– 49ers over Seahawks: San Francisco is the latest team to see if a midseason coaching change will work, having axed Mike Nolan after the Giants loss.  Mike Singletary takes over the coaching duties, and he should bring some intensity to the defensive side of the ball, having been one of the best linebackers in the league himself with the Bears in the 80s.  J.T. O’Sullivan may be on a short leash at QB, so he’ll need a big game heading into the bye week, but he should be able to get it against a Seahawks team that is barely a step above terrible.  Frank Gore should be a guarantee for a huge day, especially with a large chip on his shoulder after being held to 11 yards last week.  The Seahawks are decimated with injuries to be fair, but they don’t seem be playing with any intensity, and they seem to be really overmatched against most teams.  Keep in mind the Niners have already won in Seattle, and are going for a season sweep.  San Francisco wins.

– Titans over Colts: This should be a good Monday nighter.  It will be my first chance to actually sit down and watch Tennessee, since their games are never shown in my area.  The Titans defense has been among the best in the league this year, and means bad news for a Colts offense that really struggled last week in Green Bay.  Indianapolis will once again be without Joseph Addai, which will make it difficult if not impossible to run on Albert Haynesworth and company.  I do expect a better game from Peyton Manning than last week, for he has always had decent games against the Titans, even on the road.  Still, there is nothing the Colts seem to be able to do about their inability to stop the run, which is bad news when you’re facing Chris Johnson and LenDale White.  The Titans will also get a huge lift from what is sure to be a raucous crowd, and that will be one of the sway factors for the Titans.  If there is an early Colts turnover, they could even easily end up at the wrong end of another blowout.  Tennessee gets the win, and with it practically buries the Colts already in the AFC South.

Before we get to the NFL picks for the week, I have to say I am almost more excited about the Saturday slate of college action this weekend than I am about the NFL games.  On Saturday you have Oklahoma-Texas, a game that is WAY more important than that overhyped Ohio State-USC game from a few weeks ago.  OU-Texas might well end up being the game of the year, as both teams have dominated so far this year.  You also have LSU-Florida in Gainesville, which will no doubt be a critical game in the SEC.  My Missouri Tigers will continue to try to put up 50 points each week against Oklahoma State, which has also been averaging 50 points a game this year, so that game should be a very entertaining wild shootout.  I also want to keep an eye on another high powered offense in Texas Tech.  Will they put 70 points up on Nebraska?  The mixture of college and pro action, plus the baseball playoffs and the start of NHL make this a wonderful time on the sports calendar for sure.  Now, on to the NFL picks. 

Last Week: 7-7 (.500)  Season: 45-29 (.608)

– Dolphins over Texans: Miami has defeated the two AFC Championship Game participants from last year, which is no small feat even if the Patriots and Chargers may not be as good as last year’s versions.  Ronnie Brown seems fully recovered from last year’s ACL injury and that is bad news for opponents.  Houston is coming off quite possibly its worst loss in franchise history, losing s 27-10 lead with 4;40 to play last week against the Colts.  Matt Schaub is back at QB for the Texans, but there is simply no immediate recovery from that kind of debacle.  Miami keeps the momentum going on the road.

– Jets over Bengals: New York is coming off a bye, which means Brett Favre had a chance to further get comfortable with the offense.  The Jets are still very much within striking distance in the AFC East, and they know they need to take care of business at home.  Cincinnati has played to its competition thus far this year, which could make this a much closer game than it may appear on paper.  The Bengals have talent despite being 0-5 so the Jets need to be careful, but a hunch New York wins at home, even if its not by a wide margin.

– Colts over Ravens: Logic says i should go with Baltimore.  Their defense is playing great, and they should be able to run the ball against a Colts defense that hasn’t been able to stop the run this year.  Then again, I have to think the Colts gained quite a bit of momentum with their wild comeback win in Houston.  Peyton Manning is still Peyton Manning, and he has always owned Baltimore even in the heyday of the Ravens defense.  Marvin Harrison can’t possibly continue to be invisible can he?  Even if he is in this game, the Colts still have Reggie Wayne.  Indianapolis finally gets its first win at new Lucas Oil Stadium.

– Broncos over Jaguars: This should be a tight low scoring game, much like the Broncos-Bucs game last week.  Jacksonville held the ball over 40 minutes in last year’s meeting, so expect the Jags to run, run, run again.  The Broncos did do much better against the run last week, while the Jags have struggled to run it in every game this year except against the Colts.  Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combined to only rush for 30 yards last week against Pittsburgh, so the Broncos have a chance to continue improvement against the run if they stay disciplined.  Denver will be without tight end Tony Scheffler, so the Broncos will need a big game from Brandon Marshall.  It says here that’s a given after he was shut down last week.  Denver has just enough offense to win this one.

– Saints over Raiders: New Orleans gave one away last week against the Vikings.  The Saints know they have more talent than their 2-3 record indicates, and they may only need to wait one more week before the return of star receiver Marques Colston from a thumb injury.  The Raiders are coming off a bye, and of course their soap opera press conference and firing of Lane Kiffin.  As messed up as the Raiders organization is, a coaching change is not going to help them win this one.  After this one the Saints do not return to the Superdome until Nov. 24, due to a “home” game in London against San Diego at the end of the month.  The Saints know they must get this one, and they will.

– Cardinals over Cowboys: Major upset alert.  The Cowboys have struggled the last two weeks, and if they were playing virtually anyone other than the Bengals they wouldn’t have won last week.  Dallas also has an added distraction this week of more off-field trouble for Pacman Jones which can’t help.  Arizona meanwhile, has shown they have one of the top passing games in the league, and their defense got a huge boost last week with the return of hard hitting safety Adrian Wilson.  The Cardinals have won 8 of their last 10 at home, and it’s not all opposing team fans in the stands anymore.  Arizona wins in a shootout.

– Eagles over 49ers: Philadelphia is also much more talented then their 2-3 record indicates.  The Eagles are coming off two tough losses and now have a road game against a team with potential to surprise.  If the Niners do get a consistent outing from J.T. O’Sullivan, an upset is not out of the question.  If he is erratic, the Eagles offense should be able to do enough to win.  Dononvan McNabb gets receiving threat Kevin Curtis back, which should also open up opportunities for DeSean Jackson.  Philadelphia knows it can’t afford many more slipups in the rugged NFC East.

– Redskins over Rams: Washington is arguably the league’s biggest surprise at 4-1.  The Redskins are coming off back-to-back division road wins against Dallas and Philly, and now have a couple of friendly home games coming up.  The Redskins do have a guard against a trap here though, with the Rams coming off a bye and a coaching change, plus the reinstatement of Marc Bulger at quarterback.  A Rams victory would not come as a complete shock just because of the bye and a chance to regroup, but it is impossible to give them the nod on the road when they haven’t shown anything at all this year.  Washington gets the home win.  

– Bears over Falcons: Atlanta at 3-2 is simply stunning.  Maybe I’m just slow to get on the bandwagon here, but I can’t see Matt Ryan having the success he’s had so far this year against Chicago’s defense.  The Bears defense makes life hell for any quarterback, let alone a rookie.  Then again, Matt Ryan did win at Lambeau last week, which is also rare for a rookie.  Still, if Kyle Orton plays as well as he did last week, the Bears should have enough to win this game.  Chicago can really take control of the NFC North in the early going if they pull off this road victory.  

– Vikings over Lions: Detroit is well in the running for the worst team in the league.  They are frantically trying to trade guys who don’t want to be there before the deadline. (Roy Williams anyone?) They are a complete mess on defense because they haven’t used any high draft picks on that side of the ball in years.  Minnesota is coming off a big road win that may have saved its season.  I really hope you’re not going against Adrian Peterson in your fantasy league this week, because he’s about to have a monster day.  The only question here is how much the Vikings win this game by.  

– Packers over Seahawks: This will be a very ugly game.  Seattle is so banged up on offense that Matt Hasselbeck will still start at quarterback despite not practicing all week due to a shoulder injury.  Half of the receivers are still out as well, and Seattle is coming off a 44-6 blowout loss to the Giants.  Green Bay has lost three in a row, and is also riddled with injuries, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  This is very clearly not Seattle’s year, and the Packers know they can stay in the NFC North race with a road win.  Green Bay wins the dud game of the week.  

– Panthers over Buccaneers: I expect a great game in this one.  Carolina is red hot, and will try to win on the road against a good Bucs defense that is always very tough at home.  I go with Carolina on a hunch because Jake Delhomme has always had good success in his career against Tampa Bay, and the dual receiving threat of Steve Smith and Mushin Muhammad is causing all kinds of trouble for defenses.  Tampa Bay goes back to Jeff Garcia at quarterback, but I don’t think the Bucs have enough offense to keep up.  Carolina wins.  

– Chargers over Patriots: San Diego will be highly motivated in the Sunday nighter for several reasons.  The Chargers have lost three in a row to New England, including two playoff games.  San Diego also is a desperate team at 2-3, and knows they can’t afford a loss at home being that they’re already facing a two game deficit in the AFC West.  The Chargers will also be out for blood after the allowed a winnable game to slip away in Miami.  The Patriots may be 3-1 yes, but they haven’t really proven they are completely their old selves after the Tom Brady injury.  The raucous home crowd under the lights is the sway factor as the Chargers notch the W.  

– Giants over Browns: This has mismatch written all over it.  The Giants are without question the best team in football through the first month, and they will be heavily favored in this one.  It’s a weekly theme, but the Giants continue to prove wrong all the so-called “experts” who picked them to miss the playoffs.  How on Earth could anyone have predicted them to miss the playoffs after taking a look at their soft early schedule?  Even without Plaxico Burress last week, they didn’t skip a beat at all as they destroyed Seattle.  Cleveland for whatever reason has yet to bench Derek Anderson in favor of Brady Quinn, even though the Browns only have a win this year because the Bengals gave it to them.  I hate to say I told you so, but the Browns are not a contender in any way, and continue to prove they were a big time fluke last year.  Think the Monday Night Football crew regrets selecting so many Browns games yet?

So you think it’s easy to predict the outcome of football games?  Sometimes it is, but most of the time it’s not.  Take last week’s Miami runaway at Foxboro.  Who on Earth would have predicted a Miami win, let alone a 5 touchdown effort (4 rushing, 1 passing) from Ronnie Brown?  The Dolphins didn’t just win, they blew the Patriots out the way they were expected to be blown out.  Countless people got bounced from their eliminator pools last week because of that game.  (Thankfully I wasn’t one of them).  The Patriots seemed like a cinch pick, if nothing else because they were coming off a road win that they collected even without Tom Brady.  Even branching out beyond the NFL, did anyone, save Oregon State alumni, really believe the Beavers had anything better than a 0 percent chance to beat USC last night?  Sure, Oregon State was playing at home, they had a hostile crowd, and they had historically played well vs. USC at home, but these factors didn’t seem to override the fact that USC has clearly looked like the best team in the country in the early going.  USC had steamrolled Ohio State 35-3, and the players and coaches were saying all the right things about how they weren’t looking past Oregon State and how they were taking their Pac-10 opener seriously.  Still, Oregon State jumped out to a big halftime lead, and managed to hang on for the win at the end.  Football is a very unpredictable game, which is what makes it so great.  As much as I would like to be able to predict the outcome of every game and make loads of money in Vegas, the truth is the games are fun to watch because you don’t know what will happen.  Every game is unique, and there are surprises seemingly every week.  It is the very unpredictability of the games that makes every week must-see viewing.  Given this unpredictability, I suddenly don’t feel so bad about predictions gone awry already, and am even pleased at some that have worked out.  Now on to the picks, where in the theme of unpredictability I start with a real shocker: a winless team will break out this week and beat an undefeated team.  See below:

Last Week: 13-3 (.812) Season: 30-17 (.638)

– Rams over Bills: We start with a major upset alert.   This is a classic example of a trap game.  The Bills may be 3-0, but they needed a late rally to hold off the underachieving Raiders at home last week.  Buffalo by all rights should be 2-1 if not for poor clock management late in the game by Oakland.  The Rams have been beyond awful the first three games of the year, but they have made a quarterback switch to Trent Green.  Like the Vikings with Gus Frerotte last week, I believe the Rams will get a lift with Green under center.  Not to mention, the players are trying to save Scott Linehan’s job already.  You know the formula, it’s a desperate team playing at home, and I say the Rams pull the shocker.  Their offense has way too much talent to keep stinking like this.  Those of you in eliminator pools should think twice about this matchup. 

– Cardinals over Jets: This is really a difficult game to pick.  Arizona gave a great effort at Washington last week, while the Jets looked lost against San Diego.  Brett Favre does not look as though he has his timing down with his receivers yet, and it will take time for the Jets’ offense to get in sync.  This has the potential to be a high scoring game, and if Arizona’s passing attack continues to click, they will put more points on the board than the Jets.  Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are without question one of the top three receiver duos in the league, and Kurt Warner looks as though he has found the fountain of youth.

– Bengals over Browns: Dud game of the week.  0-3 vs. 0-3.  Will either head coach be around by the end of the year?  Cincinnati gets the nod here because they will be at home, and because they actually showed a pulse against the Giants last week.  T.J. Houshmanzadeh has come out of hiding (12 catches last week), and if Chad Johnson/Ocho Cinco actually joins him the Bengals offense could be dangerous again.  Cleveland can’t keep sticking with Derek Anderson at QB can they?  I hate to say I told you so, all you national folks that were on the Browns bandwagon in August.

– Jaguars over Texans: This will be a close game, if nothing else because the Texans seem to play better against Jacksonville then anyone else.  The Jaguars made a statement last week at Indy, and they should carry that momentum to a home win this week.  Houston is a mess early, and they may also need to  ponder a quarterback switch.  The Texans have more talent than their play so far indicates, but it’s too much to ask them to win a road game right now.  It would not be a surprise if this is Matt Schaub’s last start in Houston for awhile. 

– Titans over Vikings: Tennessee has to rank among the season’s top early surprises.  Their defense gave another phenomenal performance last week against the Texans.  If they can shut down Adrian Peterson on Sunday, the Titans may just have the look of a team that can keep it going and be a player to win it all.  It will be interesting to see if they stick with Kerry Collins when Vince Young comes back, but something tells me Jeff Fisher is the right coach to prevent that from becoming a soap opera.  The Vikings were much improved last week, but it is difficult to give them the nod in a road game right now.

– Broncos over Chiefs: For the second straight home game, Kansas City is close to a non-sellout, absolutely unheard of in barbecue country.  This really has the look of a complete mismatch, a Broncos offense averaging 38 points per game vs. a Chiefs team that hasn’t scored 38 points combined in three games this season.  The Broncos do have to guard against a letdown here, because it is a division game and the Broncos historically have not played well at Arrowhead.  On the other hand, if last year’s Broncos team could win there by two touchdowns, this year’s club should have no problem with the offense playing at a record setting pace.  Kansas City goes back to Damon Huard at QB, but is that really an improvement over Tyler Thigpen?  On that thought, let’s add Herm Edwards to the “Will he last the season” question. 

– Chargers over Raiders:  Speaking of coaches, is this Lane Kiffin’s last game as Raiders coach?  Oakland does have their bye following this game, so his dismissal would not be a surprise.  Oakland should have won last week at Buffalo, but bungled the game away late.  The Chargers woke up and looked like their old selves last week against the Jets, so naturally all the national pundits are right back on the San Diego bandwagon.  Oakland should play hard in this division game, and they do have the backing of the Black Hole, but San Diego should find a way to steal this one.  The Chargers really could be unbeaten if not for a couple of bad breaks.

– Cowboys over Redskins: This is not the gimmie it appears for Dallas.  In fact, if the game were at FedEx Field instead of Texas Stadium, my pick might well be reversed.  Washington always plays Dallas tough, and the Cowboys could be in trouble if Terrell Owens is held to two catches like he was last week.  The Redskins do look like they’re getting their offense in sync and their defense is forcing turnovers.  There is no question that the NFC East is the best division in football, and every game will be close and hotly contested.  The Cowboys win this one, but expect it to go down to the wire.  The difference is Tony Romo will show more poise than Jason Campbell in the quarterback battle.

– Buccaneers over Packers: This will be one of the best games of the week.  Green Bay is looking to bounce back from last week’s home loss to Dallas, and Aaron Rodgers faces his first hostile road environment as a starter.  Tampa Bay pulled a surprise last week at Chicago, and Brian Griese is somehow playing excellent football (407 yards passing last week!).  This is essentially a coin flip game that is likely to be decided by the turnover battle.  That being case, I’m going with the better, more aggressive defense, and that would be the Buccaneers.  It is easy to forget that Tampa Bay won the NFC South last year. 

– Panthers over Falcons: Hard to believe that both of these teams are 2-1.  Carolina should benefit from playing at home, while the Falcons struggled in their one away appearance so far this year.  Matt Ryan is actually playing well for a rookie, but Carolina’s defense will be stiff test.  The safe bet here is that Steve Smith should have a big game for the Panthers at home, and that they should be able to win this game without too much trouble.

– Saints over 49ers: I really, really, want to pick the upset in this game, but the Saints will be very difficult to beat back at the Superdome after two road games.  This should be a high scoring shootout.  San Francisco is scoring points with the Mike Martz offense, while the Saints offense is as talented as anyone in the league.  This is a must win game for New Orleans if they want to keep pace in the NFC South, so that is the sway factor for the Saints.  San Francisco will keep this game close though, and I still say the Niners will crash the playoff party in January.  I have a sneaking suspicion i might come to regret this pick on Sunday afternoon. 

– Eagles over Bears: This should be a good Sunday night game at Soldier Field.  The Bears will be desperate after blowing one at home to Tampa Bay last week, while the Eagles are coming off a big win against Pittsburgh.  Philadelphia has Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook coming in less than 100 percent, which should help the Bears defense, but Chicago has not shown it can move the ball with any consistency offensively.  If the Eagles want to be a player in the NFC, this is the kind of game they need to win, and a hunch says they should have enough to pull this one out.

– Steelers over Ravens: This should be one the purists will love, a tough, physical, defensive battle in the AFC North.  Pittsburgh is reeling after getting sacked nine times in Philly last week, and will be without top back Willie Parker.  That being said, Baltimore has not played a road game yet, which means this is the first for rookie QB Joe Flacco.  I’m sure the Ravens would prefer a much less hostile environment for their rookie signal caller get his feet wet on the road, and that right there is the sway factor.  I simply can’t back a rookie QB in a road game like this.  Pittsburgh wins. 

BYE: Miami, New England, Indianapolis, NY Giants, Detroit, Seattle

It never fails every year, the NFL offers us surprise after surprise.  Early 2-0 teams include the Cardinals, the Titans, the Broncos and the Panthers.  This does not mean any of them are guaranteed a spot in the playoffs (the Broncos actually started 2-0 last year too before finishing 7-9), but it does go with the theme of things turning upside down every year in the NFL. 

Meanwhile, THREE of my playoff picks, Minnesota, Jacksonville and San Diego sit 0-2, in addition to another team expected to do well by many (but not by me), the Browns.  Each of these teams has its entire season on the line already here in week three.  Just because any of these teams began 0-2, it does not mean that they are down and out.  In fact, one win can be all it takes to get things jump started.  I bring this up because the Giants started 0-2 last year after a tough loss at Dallas in week one and getting blown out at home by Green Bay in week two.  The Giants were staring 0-3 in the face with trip to Washington to play the division rival Redskins, and found themselves up by seven with 58 seconds to play, and the Redskins with first and goal at the 1.  The G-men were desperate.  A Redskins touchdown would send the game into overtime, and the fate of New York’s season could very well have depended on a coin toss to determine possession in overtime.  The Giants could have easily folded but the didn’t:

– First and Goal: Jason Campbell spikes the ball to stop the clock

– Second and Goal: Jason Campbell fade route to the corner of the end zone incomplete, well defended

– Third and Goal: Ladell Betts run for no gain, Giants defense steps up

– Fourth and Goal: The Giants defense blows up the line of scrimmage, stopping Clinton Portis for a two yard loss to preseve the win and save the season. 

The Giants win in Washington jump started a six game winning streak and sent them on their way to season that culminated in a Super Bowl victory.  Now, this is not to say that any of the 0-2 teams are guaranteed to have that kind of run if they pull out a win Sunday, but it does show that they are not necessarily dead and buried just yet.  One win is all it can take to jump start a season.  I suppose this could also apply to Miami, Kansas City, Cincinnati and St. Louis, who all sit at 0-2, but let’s not get too carried away here.  The teams mentioned above with playoff expectations are good teams that have simply stubbed their toe early and still have enough talent to rebound.  Bad teams are just bad and they have dug themselves a hole for a reason. 

 Now on to the picks.  We haven’t exactly been stellar the first two weeks but it’s still early. 

Last Week: 8-7 (.533)   Season: 17-14 (.548)

– Bills over Raiders: The Bills are quickly emerging as the surprise team of 2008.  If you take a look at their early season schedule, they could be a very hot team indeed.  Last week’s tough road win in Jacksonville proved the Bills are a team to be reckoned with.  The Raiders? Lane Kiffin is still very much on the hot seat, and let’s be honest: a win in Kansas City doesn’t really count right now.

– Patriots over Dolphins: It’s amazing really.  The Patriots never cease to amaze me.  Every time I think they’re done, they go and pull out a win they’re not supposed to.  It really doesn’t seem fair they get to take advantage of this complete mismatch on Sunday.  Is this perhaps a week Bill Belichick opens up the offense for Matt Cassel? The Dolphins seem like they’re playing for 2010, not 2008. 

– Giants over Bengals: The Giants continue to prove everyone wrong who said they were not going to return to the playoffs this season.  They went on the road last week, in a trap game to boot, and blew the Rams out of the stadium.  Now they get a Bengals team that has no identity whatsoever right now and is coming into a hornet’s nest.  Where exactly has Chad Johnson (or Ocho Cinco whatever the hell he is called now) disappeared to anyway? The only question here is the margin of victory for the G-men.

– Ravens over Browns: One of my upset picks of the week.  The Ravens are coming off an unexpected bye and will get Willis McGahee back.  The Browns offense has sputtered for a whopping 16 points in two games, and now gets the Ravens ballhawking defense on the road?  The Ravens at 2-0 seems bizarre and very misleading, but I don’t see how the Browns will be able to move the ball on them.  Yes, the Browns are desperate and their season is on the line, but this never had the feel of a contending team this year.  The Brady Quinn watch is on along Lake Erie.

– Eagles over Steelers: One of the top two games of the week without question.  I’ve gone back and forth on this game so much, I might as well flip a coin to make the pick.  Pittsburgh is clearly one of the top teams in the AFC, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  Philadelphia showed it can plays with the big boys in Dallas, and their offense is averaging 36 points over the first two games.  It’s really the unstoppable force versus the immovable object here.  I say home field advantage sways the unstoppable force and the Eagles offense to a win by a field goal.

– Titans over Texans: Tennessee would improve to 3-0 with a win, which would have to rank among the season’s early surprises.  The Titans defense has been terrific in the early going, which is a trademark of a Jeff Fisher coached team.  Kerry Collins gave a serviceable performance at QB last week, but the Titans did struggle to move the ball against Cincinnati’s suspect defense.  The Texans should be anxious to play after last week’s surprise bye, and it would not surprise me to see them put up some points.  I still say Houston is at minimum an 8-8 team by the end of the season.  Tennessee ultimately wins this game, but an upset is not out of the realm of possibility here. 

– Jaguars over Colts: Another upset alert.  Jacksonville has nothing less than its entire season on the line here, for they can’t afford to go 0-3.  They have always played the Colts very tough, even in Indy.  The Colts offense is still struggling to find itself, and Peyton Manning will have to once again work behind a patchwork offensive line that is looking to get healthy.  Jacksonville will look to run the ball, particularly with Colts’ run stopping safety Bob Sanders out of the lineup due to injury.  Even after pulling out the win last week, the Colts still seem very vulnerable. 

– Broncos over Saints: This could very well be another high scoring game.  The Broncos are averaging 40 points a game, and they’re facing a Saints team with plenty of explosive weapons.  This is a trap game for Denver after two division games and another next week.  The Saints are coming off a loss last week and don’t want to fall to 1-2.  It will be interesting to see if the Broncos have an answer for Reggie Bush after they got carved up by Darren Sproles last week, but it will also be interesting to see if the Saints suspect secondary has an answer for Denver’s passing game.  If Santana Moss ran wild last week, I don’t think the Saints will be able to stop Marshall, Royal and company.  The Broncos at 3-0 would rank as one of the season’s early surprises for sure.

– Falcons over Chiefs: Kansas City is starting Tyler Thigpen at QB, which tells you all you need to know about this game.  KC’s one real offensive threat, Larry Johnson, is upset about the direction of the organization after two games.  Atlanta is returning home where they won in week one, and the Falcons should have enough to beat one of the struggling franchises in football.  I don’t think anyone expected Matt Ryan to start his career 2-1 before the season.  Then again, I’m sure any rookie QB would give his non-throwing arm to face the Lions and Chiefs in two of the first three games of his career. 

– Cowboys over Packers: Besides Pittsburgh-Philly, a top game of the week for sure.  The Cowboys have been arguably the best team in football through two games, and will face a Packers team that is also undefeated, and will be playing under the lights at Lambeau.  If Aaron Rodgers passes this test against the Cowboys defense, then I guess I will have to start eating crow.  I have to admit I didn’t think Rodgers would be successful especially early in the year, but he is starting to prove that wrong in a hurry.  Green Bay will benefit from the Lambeau crowd, but Dallas is a team on a mission this season.  The Cowboys will find a way to pull this one out in a high-scoring thriller.

– Cardinals over Redskins: Something seems very weird about picking Arizona to start the year 3-0, but the Cardinals seem to be finally showing that potential we’ve been hearing about for five years.  The Redskins did show some toughness coming from behind to beat the Saints last week, and they will benefit from playing at home.  This is another game I might as well flip a coin to pick really, but a hunch says the Cardinals passing game will click enough to give Arizona the W.  If Arizona wins this game on the road, we might have to acknowledge for the first time since well, maybe ever, that the Cardinals are for real.

– Bears over Buccaneers: Chicago lost a tough game on the road last week, but their defense seems to be back to the level of two years ago when they went to the Super Bowl.  Tampa Bay is a good defensive team as well, so this should be a low scoring game.  The difference will be the Bears being able to make one play than the Bucs to squeak out a win in their home opener at Soldier Field.  Frankly, I just can’t back Brian Griese on the road.

– 49ers over Lions: Last week San Francisco made me have confidence in my pick that they would be playoff team this year.  As J.T. O’Sullivan settles into the Mike Martz offense, we should see his numbers begin to climb.  The Lions have been dreadful defensively the first two games, so the Niners should be able to rack up the points in this one.  It seems impossible to really back Detroit in any scenerio until they prove they can stop making silly mistakes throughout a game.

– Vikings over Panthers: Minnesota has already hit the panic button, yanking Tarvaris Jackson for Gus Frerotte under center.  The Vikings will be playing at home, and they do have their season on the line in this one, for it would be very difficult to climb out of an 0-3 hole (especially with a trip to Tennessee next week).  The Panthers get Steve Smith back, which should actually help their offense, and Jake Delhomme is playing very well after Tommy John surgery in the offseason, but the Vikings are desperate team playing at home, and Minnesota pulls the mini-upset. 

– Seahawks over Rams: This is much more a pick against the Rams than it is for the Seahawks.  Seattle is a mess at the wide receiver position.  The Seahawks are so banged up there they had to sign Koren Robinson off the street and make a trade for Keary Colbert, who wasn’t being activated on game day in Denver.  Both will get significant time this week, which makes me wonder if the Seahawks will have any cohesion at all offensively.  Yes, the Rams have been awful the last two games, but it’s not like the Seahawks have been anything to write home about.  Seattle gets the win because they’re playing at home, but this will be a very sloppy game and an upset would not come as a complete shock if the Rams offense gets in any kind of rhythm. 

– Chargers over Jets: In the Monday nighter, San Diego goes with the weekend theme of a desperate team with their season on the line already.  The Chargers have suffered two heartbreaking losses in the first two weeks, and are certainly way too talented to end up at 0-3.  LT’s toe could be a lingering issue all year, but Darren Sproles has proven he can be a playmaker.  Brett Favre isn’t exactly going to be afraid of playing on the road, but the emotion of the home crowd and the desperation of the Chargers makes this a no-win for the Jets this week.